Friday, March 04, 2011

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Survey: 196 Actual 192 Prior 36 Revised 63

Change in Private Payrolls Survey: 200 Actual 222 Prior 50 Revised 68
Unemployment Rate Survey: 9.1% Actual 8.9 Prior 9.0

Fed says focused on the core while other CBs watch headline price developments – most
members of the FOMC are focused on core inflation readings while other CBs, inc. the ECB, have spoken
out about the overall increases in prices, driven in large part by commodities. – FT
The number of Americans receiving food stamps jumped 13 percent in December from a year
earlier to a record 44.1 million. – Bloomberg
Crude markets – the NYT says that calls are mounting to have the US tap its strategic oil
reserves; members of Congress note that selling some of the strategic reserve would help raise money
to bring down the deficit while also helping to lower oil prices. The White House has resisted the calls so
far and cautioned markets to avoid overreacting to the current situation. – NYT
Saudi Arabia sees small protests take place on Fri (Mar 4) - On Thursday Saudi Shi'ites staged
protests in two towns in Saudi Arabia's oil-producing Eastern Province, demanding the release of
prisoners they say are being held without trial – Reuters – the real test comes next Friday on the planned
‘day of rage.’ If that passes without incident there could be a sigh of relief.
 Saudi crude production ramped up in Feb – data from Petroleum Intelligence Weekly indicates
that Saudi Arabia pumped 9.4MM BPD in Feb, higher than most other ests (Saudi sources had said the
country was pumping around ~9MM). Reuters – it appears that the situation in Libya has resulted in
disrupting about half of their daily production of ~1.4 mb/d (1.4 million barrels per day). It was always a
bit uncertain whether Saudi Arabia actually had the spare capacity to fill this void and whether they had
a willingness to use it. Last time around they didn’t raise production until crude passed $120/barrel.
They are the only producers in the world right now with spare capacity.

Oil Exports (millions b/d) Estimated Capacity

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