Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Barack Obama's job approval rating in the latest Gallup Daily tracking three-day average is 41%,
tying his low as president, previously reached in August and October 2010. Among party groups, his
approval among independents is down most when compared with his 2011 average to date – Gallup

Will Obama’s approval ratings head the way of Reagan or Carter? The only two past presidents he is
beating at comparable points in their presidencies.

Since S&P began assigning outlooks to government debt in 1989, five AAA-rated countries have
been assigned negative outlooks, including Britain in 2009. Three were subsequently downgraded, and
Britain and one other were returned to a stable outlook. WSJ – in case you missed it yesterday, the long
term outlook on US debt was downgraded from stable to negative by S&P. Changing the outlook is
different than changing the actual rating, which is still AAA. This change to ‘negative outlook’ means
there is at least a 1 in 3 likelihood that they could lower the actual rating (i.e. AAA) within two years. A
portfolio manager at Pimco noted that ‘most people, Pimco included, have already downgraded the US’s
debt.’ I agree. Thus, it is probably this time frame that is ‘new’ for the market because 2 years is sooner
than expected.