1.

Time series methods

a. discover a pattern in historical data and project it into the future.
b. include cause-effect relationships.
c. are useful when historical information is not available.
d. All of the alternatives are true.

2. Gradual shifting of a time series over a long period of time is called

a. periodicity.
b. cycle.
c. regression.
d. trend.

3. Seasonal components
a. cannot be predicted.
b. are regular repeated patterns.
c. are long runs of observations above or below the trend line.
d. reflect a shift in the series over time.

4. Short-term, unanticipated, and nonrecurring factors in a time series provide the random
variability known as
a. uncertainty.
b. the forecast error.
c. the residuals.
d. the irregular component.

5. The focus of smoothing methods is to smooth

a. the irregular component.
b. wide seasonal variations.
c. significant trend effects.
d. long range forecasts.

6. Linear trend is calculated as Tt = 28.5 + .75t. The trend projection for period 15 is
a. 11.25
b. 28.50
c. 39.75
d. 44.25

7. Studying inflation in the India from 1970 to 2006 is an example of using

a. randomized controlled experiments.
b. time series data.
c. panel data.
d. cross-sectional data.

12. The trend component is easy to identify by using

a. moving averages
b. exponential smoothing
c. regression analysis
d. the Delphi approach
 13. The forecasting method that is appropriate when the time series has no significant trend,
cyclical, or seasonal effect is
a. moving averages
b. mean squared error
c. mean average deviation
d. qualitative forecasting methods

14. If data for a time series analysis is collected on an annual basis only, which component
may be ignored?
a. trend
b. seasonal
c. cyclical
d. irregular

15. One measure of the accuracy of a forecasting model is the

a. smoothing constant
b. trend component
c. mean absolute deviation
d. seasonal index

1. If

2.