3,000,000,000.

00

2,500,000,000.00

2,000,000,000.00

1,500,000,000.00

1,000,000,000.00

500,000,000.00

ct
-0
6
O

Ju
l-0
6

06
Ap
r-

Ja
n06

ct
-0
5
O

Ju
l-0
5

Ap
r-

05

0.00
Ja
n05

Date Sales (USD)

Jan-05
###
Feb-05
###
Mar-05
###
Apr-05
###
###
###
Jun-05
###
Jul-05
###
###
###
Sep-05
###
Oct-05
###
###
###
###
###
Jan-06
###
Feb-06
###
Mar-06
###
Apr-06
###
###
###
Jun-06
###
Jul-06
###
###
###
Sep-06
###
Oct-06
###
###
###
###
###
Jan-07
###
Feb-07
###
Mar-07
###
Apr-07
###
###
###
Jun-07
###
Jul-07
###
###
###
Sep-07
###
Oct-07
###
###
###
###
###
Jan-08
###
Feb-08
###
Mar-08
###
Apr-08
###
###
###
Jun-08
###

Jul-08
###
Sep-08
Oct-08
###
###
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
###
Jun-09
Jul-09
###
Sep-09
Oct-09

###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###

ct
-0
5

06

ct
-0
6

07

ct
-0
7

08

ct
-0
8

09

ct
-0
9

Ju
l-0
9

Ap
r-

Ja
n09

Ju
l-0
8

Ap
r-

Ja
n08

Ju
l-0
7

Ap
r-

Ja
n07

Ju
l-0
6

Ap
r-

Ja
n06

Sales (USD)

Di-Fi
Date
Sales (USD)
Forecast
|Di-Fi|
Jan-05
###
Feb-05
### 1693576596 63563919 63563919
Mar-05
### 1757140515
###
###
Apr-05
### 2073490391
###
###
May-05
### 1812940607 -7862539 7862539
Jun-05
### 1805078068
###
###
Jul-05
### 2046645751
###
###
Aug-05
### 1754375033 22343263 22343263
Sep-05
### 1776718296
###
###
Oct-05
### 2052205244
###
###
Nov-05
### 1825406834 24640569 24640569
Dec-05
### 1850047403
###
###
Jan-06
### 2123010997
###
###
Feb-06
### 1824808887
### 29832974
Mar-06
### 1794975913
###
###
Apr-06
### 2175783603
###
###
May-06
### 1860222453 49367530 49367530
Jun-06
### 1909589983
###
###
Jul-06
### 2140485116
###
###
Aug-06
### 1845720145 8110155 8110155
Sep-06
### 1853830300
###
###
Oct-06
### 2215722136
###
###
Nov-06
### 2046861264
### 55852398
Dec-06
### 1991008866
###
###
Jan-07
### 2257129479
###
###
Feb-07
### 2005695700
### 41652832
Mar-07
### 1964042868
###
###
Apr-07
### 2358693281
###
###
May-07
### 2008490557 72281927 72281927
Jun-07
### 2080772484 97261359 97261359
Jul-07
### 2178033843
###
###
Aug-07
### 1954190571 11169873 11169873
Sep-07
### 1965360444
###
###
Oct-07
### 2304271083
###
###
Nov-07
### 2110391869
### 93413636
Dec-07
### 2016978233
###
###
Jan-08
### 2212562786
###
###
Feb-08
### 2098401063
### 65267130
Mar-08
### 2033133933
###
###
Apr-08
### 2289930560
###
###
May-08
### 2166737151
### 68578938
Jun-08
### 2098158213
###
###
Jul-08
### 2265552276
###
###
Aug-08
### 2148032914
###
###

MAD
MFE
MAPE
CV

###
###
###
0.09

Comment As the coefficient of variation is nearly 10%, t

3000000000

2500000000

2000000000

1500000000

1000000000

500000000

Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-0

Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Ju

Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09

###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###

1999392790
2386201871
2129066188
1904127951
2266677879
2096482070
2001785777
2359671381
2109591112
2090102905
2423239176
2223387418
2169273433
2604203255
2419929784

###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
### 94696293
###
###
###
###
### 19488207
###
###
###
###
### 54113985
###
###
###
###

fficient of variation is nearly 10%, this is not a very reliable forecasting method

Sales (USD)

Forecast

05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09

ul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09

Date

Di-Fi
Sales (USD)
Forecast
|Di-Fi|
Jan-05 1693576596
Feb-05 1757140515 1693576596
63563919
63563919
Mar-05 2073490391
### 348131835.5 348131835.5
Apr-05 1812940607
### -28461893.67 28461893.67
May-05 1805078068
### -29208959.25 29208959.25
Jun-05 2046645751
### 218200515.6 218200515.6
Jul-05 1754375033 1864811988
-110436955
110436955
Aug-05 1776718296
### -72316984.14 72316984.14
Sep-05 2052205244
### 212209586.88 212209586.88
Oct-05 1825406834
### -38167666.11 38167666.11
Nov-05 1850047403
###
-9710330.5
9710330.5
Dec-05 2123010997
### 264136020.82 264136020.82
Jan-06 1824808887
### -56077424.25 56077424.25
Feb-06 1794975913
### -81596750.23 81596750.23
Mar-06 2175783603
### 305039279.07 305039279.07
Apr-06 1860222453
### -30857822.87 30857822.87
May-06 1909589983
### 20438321.06 20438321.06
Jun-06 2140485116
### 250131199.88 250131199.88
Jul-06 1845720145
### -58529948.89 58529948.89
Aug-06 1853830300
### -47339270.26 47339270.26
Sep-06 2215722136
### 316919529.25 316919529.25
Oct-06 2046861264
### 132967251.1 132967251.1
Nov-06 1991008866
### 71070887.14 71070887.14
Dec-06 2257129479
### 334101461.57 334101461.57
Jan-07 2005695700
### 68746788.33 68746788.33
Feb-07 1964042868
###
24344084.8
24344084.8
Mar-07 2358693281
### 418058186.85 418058186.85
Apr-07 2008490557
###
52371826.3
52371826.3
May-07 2080772484
### 122783330.93 122783330.93
Jun-07 2178033843
### 215810781.97 215810781.97
Jul-07 1954190571
### -15226182.77 15226182.77
Aug-07 1965360444
### -3565142.58
3565142.58
Sep-07 2304271083
### 335456907.13 335456907.13
Oct-07 2110391869
### 131412332.3 131412332.3
Nov-07 2016978233
### 34133627.71 34133627.71
Dec-07 2212562786
### 228742934.2 228742934.2
Jan-08 2098401063
### 108227240.81 108227240.81
Feb-08 2033133933
### 40035050.24 40035050.24
Mar-08 2289930560
### 295778123.29 295778123.29
Apr-08 2166737151
### 165000659.85 165000659.85
May-08 2098158213
### 92296705.35 92296705.35
Jun-08 2265552276
### 257439629.2 257439629.2
Jul-08 2148032914
### 133790752.21 133790752.21
Aug-08 1999392790
### -17960784.63 17960784.63

MAD
MFE
MAPE
CV
Comment

3000000000

2500000000

2000000000

1500000000

1000000000

500000000

Apr-05 Oct-0
Jan-05 Jul-05 J

Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09

2386201871
2129066188
1904127951
2266677879
2096482070
2001785777
2359671381
2109591112
2090102905
2423239176
2223387418
2169273433
2604203255
2419929784

###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###

###

369256496.02
103915113.11
-123282148.09
241890804.34
66655603.58
-29401007.86
329072616.3
72539943.06
51656737.15
383818352.74
176858847.46
119529247.05
552324618.21
358361241.63

369256496.02
103915113.11
123282148.09
241890804.34
66655603.58
29401007.86
329072616.3
72539943.06
51656737.15
383818352.74
176858847.46
119529247.05
552324618.21
358361241.63

###
###
2720639.48
0.07
Since Coefficient of Variance is less than 10%, the forecasting method performs acceptably

3000000000

2500000000

2000000000

1500000000

Sales (USD)

Forecast

1000000000

500000000

0
Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09
Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09

Di-Fi
Date
Sales (USD) Number of Periods Forecast
|Di-Fi|
Jan-05 1693576596
1
Feb-05 1757140515
2
1693576596 63563919 63563919
Mar-05 2073490391
3
1735952542
###
###
Apr-05 1812940607
4
1904721466.5
###
###
May-05 1805078068
5
1868009122.7
###
###
Jun-05 2046645751
6
1847032104.47
###
###
Jul-05 1754375033
7
1904064574.9
###
###
Aug-05 1776718296
8
1866642189.43
###
###
Sep-05 2052205244
9
1846659102
###
###
Oct-05 1825406834
10
1887768330.4
###
###
Nov-05 1850047403
11
1876429876.51
###
###
Dec-05 2123010997
12
1872032797.59
###
###
Jan-06 1824808887
13
1910644828.27
###
###
Feb-06 1794975913
14
1898382550.95
###
###
Mar-06 2175783603
15
1884594999.22
###
###
Apr-06 1860222453
16
1920993574.69
###
###
May-06 1909589983
17
1913844030.96
###
###
Jun-06 2140485116
18
1913371358.97
###
###
Jul-06 1845720145
19
1937278070.23
###
###
Aug-06 1853830300
20
1928122277.71
###
###
Sep-06 2215722136
21
1921046851.26
###
###
Oct-06 2046861264
22
1947835513.51
###
###
Nov-06 1991008866
23
1956446448.34
###
###
Dec-06 2257129479
24
1959326649.81
###
###
Jan-07 2005695700
25
1983150876.14
###
###
Feb-07 1964042868
26
1984885093.36
###
###
Mar-07 2358693281
27
1983341224.82
###
###
Apr-07 2008490557
28
2010152085.97
###
###
May-07 2080772484
29
2010037497.77
###
###
Jun-07 2178033843
30
2014753163.52
###
###
Jul-07 1954190571
31
2025287400.9
###
###
Aug-07 1965360444
32
2020843849.03
###
###
Sep-07 2304271083
33
2017481218.43
###
###
Oct-07 2110391869
34
2034351210.46
###
###
Nov-07 2016978233
35
2038696390.95
###
###
Dec-07 2212562786
36
2037489826.62
###
###
Jan-08 2098401063
37
2046953229.83
###
###
Feb-08 2033133933
38
2049661010.52
###
###
Mar-08 2289930560
39
2048813468.08
###
###
Apr-08 2166737151
40
2060869322.68
###
###
May-08 2098158213
41
2066033606.99
###
###
Jun-08 2265552276
42
2067563350.13
###
###
Jul-08 2148032914
43
2076772137.38
###
###
Aug-08 1999392790
44
2080011263.59
###
###

3000000000

2500000000

2000000000

1500000000

1000000000

500000000

Apr-05 O
Jan-05 Jul-0

Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09

2386201871
2129066188
1904127951
2266677879
2096482070
2001785777
2359671381
2109591112
2090102905
2423239176
2223387418
2169273433
2604203255
2419929784

45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58

2076428220.32
2089896639.91
2091563429.2
2083753617.6
2091219913.99
2091430400.23
2087914924.81
2098367096.2
2098790643.97
2098468875.86
2110278704.95
2114318301.85
2116246552.06
2133072645.27

2142796616.07

###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###

###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###

MAD
MFE
MAPE
CV

135366527.6
84247141.28
2374851.36
0.07

Comments

More reliable than the Simple Average Forecasting Method

3000000000

2500000000

2000000000

1500000000

Sales (USD)
Forecast

1000000000

500000000

0
Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09
Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09

From the provided chart data it can be discerned that demand is charecterised on both an upward trend and seasonality.
The seasonality pattern displays a complete cycle every 4 months.
Hence, to produce a responsive yet reasonably smooth forecast, a window of two months has been used to forecast demand.

Date
Sales
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Apr-05
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Sep-06
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08

Di-Fi
(USD)Forecast
|Di-Fi|
###
###
### 1693576596 379913795 379913795
###
### 87582051.5 87582051.5
### 1915315453 -110237385 110237385
### 1943215499 103430252 103430252
###
### -54634304.5 54634304.5
###
### -149143613.5
###
### 1900510392 151694852 151694852
###
### 59860169.5 59860169.5
### 1914461770
-64414367 64414367
### 1938806039 184204958 184204958
###
### -12918231.5 12918231.5
### 1986529200 -191553287 191553287
### 1973909942 201873661 201873661
### 1809892400
50330053 50330053
### 1985379758
-75789775 75789775
### 2018003028 122482088 122482088
### 1884906218
-39186073 39186073
###
### -171207249.5
###
###
### 222619505.5
###
###
### 197086041.5
###
### 2034776218
-43767352 43767352
### 2131291700 125837779 125837779
### 2018935065
-13239365 13239365
###
### -160026304.5
###
###
### 227280691.5
###
### 1984869284
23621273 23621273
###
### -80595590.5 80595590.5
### 2183591919
-5558076
5558076
###
### -90440949.5 90440949.5
###
### -164042719.5
###
### 2066112207 238158876 238158876
###
### 150616361.5
###
###
### -117837530.5
###
### 2207331476
5231310
5231310
### 2063685051
34716012 34716012
###
### -81636576.5 81636576.5
###
### 134448635.5
###
### 2065767498 100969653 100969653
###
### -63374033.5 63374033.5

MAD
MFE
MAPE
CV

###
###
2122453.58
0.06

Comment The simple average forecasting meth

an even greater accuracy in forecast
in comparison with the simple weight

3000000000

2500000000

2000000000

1500000000

1000000000

500000000

Apr-05 Oct-05 Ap
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06

Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09

###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###

###
2132447682
###
2206792595
2073712852
###
###
###
2085402915
###
###
2180728579
###
###
###
2323313297
###
2386738344

37218420.5 37218420.5
15585232 15585232
-182462454.5
###
179409276 179409276
55353336 55353336
-288669379.5
###
9043849.5 9043849.5
79885000.5 79885000.5
-83617138 83617138
178091406.5
###
60457188.5 60457188.5
-90625674 90625674
188607929.5
###
123540409.5
###
-87397607.5 87397607.5
280889958 280889958
223599358.5
###

d and seasonality.

sed to forecast demand.

average forecasting method with a window of two months provides

ater accuracy in forecasting sales figures method
on with the simple weighted average

Column B
Column C

Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09
05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09

Weights

Two forecasts are made with different sets of weights

Time Period
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5

3 month window

Date

5 month window
0.5
0.3
0.2

0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1

Sales (USD)
3 month window forecast
5 month window forecast 3month Di-F
May-05
1805078068
Jun-05
2046645751
Jul-05
1754375033
Aug-05
1776718296
1852196855.4
###
Sep-05
2052205244
1824000808.1
###
Oct-05
1825406834
1909993117.4
1898220823.25
###
Nov-05
1850047403
1883708649.4
1883837850.45
###
Dec-05
2123010997
1883086800.5
1863752225.9
###
Jan-06
1824808887
1981601086.2
1949999132.85
###
Feb-06
1794975913
1919317223.2
1927236445.45
###
Mar-06
2175783603
1869532822
1879344988.9 306250781
Apr-06
1860222453
1991346352.8
1969897226.4
###
May-06
1909589983
1941841490
1947030252 -32251507
Jun-06
2140485116
1948018448
1924816604.4 192466668
Jul-06
1845720145
2015164043.5
1997452652.9
###
Aug-06
1853830300
1946923603.9
1967367047.35
###
Sep-06
2215722136
1908728216.7
1918136892.2
###
Oct-06
2046861264
2033154187
2009350010.5 13707077
Nov-06
1991008866
2058913332.8
2029661506.55
###
Dec-06
2257129479
2052707239.4
2014808962.5
###
Jan-07
2005695700
2135239652.1
2102004663.4
###
Feb-07
1964042868
2078188466.9
2092794256.15
###
Mar-07
2358693281
2035156039.8
2045400137.5
###
Apr-07
2008490557
2169698640.9
2137428149.75
###
May-07
2080772484
2104661836.4
2111596363.85
###
Jun-07
2178033843
2114672065.3
2093269040.85
###
Jul-07
1954190571
2114946778.1
2125509664.25
###
Aug-07
1965360444
2046659935.2
2084063040.5
###
Sep-07
2304271083
2004544161.9
2026727472.85
###
Oct-07
2110391869
2132581788.9
2108241874.95
###
Nov-07
2016978233
2139549348.2
2113189390.2
###
Dec-07
2212562786
2102460893.8
2083768777.45
###
Jan-08
2098401063
2133453236.7
2132268474.7
###
Feb-08
2033133933
2116365013.9
2133042550.65
###
Mar-08
2289930560
2088599842.6
2090638924.7
###
Apr-08
2166737151
2174585672.5
2148525105.05
###
May-08
2098158213
2176974530.1
2165147009.95
###

Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09

2265552276
2148032914
1999392790
2386201871
2129066188
1904127951
2266677879
2096482070
2001785777
2359671381
2109591112
2090102905
2423239176
2223387418
2169273433
2604203255
2419929784

2157086363.8
2195571032.1
2173313782.4
2097216724.4
2222525355.3
2180272213.3
2068024206.1
2130390562.4
2109069988.9
2083173085.3
2199667837.6
2163054125.7
2149863062.3
2260568681.9
2256686042.8
2236300777.1
2397561141
2425080555.1

2143928059.9
###
2184355643.55
###
2184433214.45
###
2121333967.75
###
2194964004.3
###
2183909046.85
###
2095457516.4
###
2139718148.7
###
2134419796.25
###
2076517637.85
###
2158058749.5
###
2164292432.65
###
2136278999.25
###
2225544986.3
###
2243252405.3
###
2215751266.55
###
2340752985.25 22368643
2386716465.85

5 month Di-F5month |Di-Fi|

3month |Di-Fi|

###
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32251507 -37440269 37440269
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13707077
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7848521.5
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3 month
MAD
MFE
MAPE
CV

5 month

###
###
### 25299384.06
2704876.46 2789214.85
0.07
0.07

Comment The 3 month forecast provides a more responsive and accurate foreca
compared to the 5 month sales forecast. However the difference is no
In addition, the simple moving average provides a better forecast,perh

3000000000

2500000000

2000000000

1500000000

1000000000

Sales (USD)
3 month
window
forecast
5 month
window
forecast

500000000

Sep-05 May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-0

May-05 Jan-06 Sep-06 May-07 Jan-08 Sep-08 May-09

###
###
###
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22368643

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### 2157568.3
###
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###

e responsive and accurate forecast of sales demand

ast. However the difference is not significant
e provides a better forecast,perhaps due to smaller window

Sales (USD)
3 month
window
forecast
5 month
window
forecast

-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09

Jan-08 Sep-08 May-09

Date
Period
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Apr-05
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Sep-06
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08

Di-Fi
Sales (USD)
Forecast
1
1693576596
###
2
1757140515
###
3
2073490391
###
4
1812940607
###
5
1805078068
###
6
2046645751
###
7
1754375033
###
8
1776718296
###
9
2052205244 1905798411
10
1825406834
###
11
1850047403
###
12
2123010997
###
13
1824808887
###
14
1794975913
###
15
2175783603
###
16
1860222453
###
17
1909589983
###
18
2140485116
###
19
1845720145
###
20
1853830300
###
21
2215722136
###
22
2046861264
###
23
1991008866
###
24
2257129479
###
25
2005695700
###
26
1964042868
###
27
2358693281
###
28
2008490557
###
29
2080772484
###
30
2178033843
###
31
1954190571
###
32
1965360444
###
33
2304271083
###
34
2110391869
###
35
2016978233
###
36
2212562786
###
37
2098401063
###
38
2033133933
###
39
2289930560
###
40
2166737151
###
41
2098158213
###
42
2265552276
###
43
2148032914
###
44
1999392790
###

|Di-Fi|

###
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###

###
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###
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###
###
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###
###
###
###
###
###

MAD
MFE
MAPE
CV

3000000000

2500000000

2000000000

1500000000

1000000000

500000000

Apr-05 O
Jan-05
Jul-0

Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Slope
Intercept

45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
7899940
###

2386201871
2129066188
1904127951
2266677879
2096482070
2001785777
2359671381
2109591112
2090102905
2423239176
2223387418
2169273433
2604203255
2419929784

###
###
###
###
###
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###

###
###

###
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###
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###

###
###
###
0.06

Comment This method offers the most accurate forecasts so far

000000000

500000000

000000000

500000000

Sales (USD)

Forecast

000000000

500000000

0
Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09

Date
Sales (USD) Quarter Quarter Average Sales Trend
Year
Jan-05 1693576596
1
1834287027.25
1868422303.58
1
Feb-05 1757140515
2
1845704287
1896646354.84
Mar-05 2073490391
3
1962667619.5
1924870406.1
Apr-05 1812940607
4
1913947714
1953094457.37
May-05 1805078068
5
1937406386
1981318508.63
2
Jun-05 2046645751
6
2127680436.25
2009542559.89
Jul-05 1754375033
7
2084230601.5
2037766611.15
Aug-05 1776718296
8
2044589335.5
2065990662.42
Sep-05 2052205244
9
2161050992.75
2094214713.68
3
Oct-05 1825406834
10
2147050676.75
2122438764.94
Nov-05 1850047403
11
2127784048.25
2150662816.2
Dec-05 2123010997
12
2171518472.25
2178886867.47
Jan-06 1824808887
13
2141882585
2207110918.73
4
Feb-06 1794975913
14
2226500733
2235334969.99
Mar-06 2175783603
15
2263559021.26
Apr-06 1860222453
16
2291783072.52
May-06 1909589983
Jun-06 2140485116
Jul-06 1845720145
Slope
28224051.26
Aug-06 1853830300
Intercept
1840198252.32
Sep-06 2215722136
Oct-06 2046861264
Nov-06 1991008866
Comment
This is the most accurate forecast of demand
Dec-06 2257129479
Jan-07 2005695700
Feb-07 1964042868
Mar-07 2358693281
Apr-07 2008490557
May-07 2080772484
Jun-07 2178033843
Jul-07 1954190571
Aug-07 1965360444
Sep-07 2304271083
Oct-07 2110391869
Nov-07 2016978233
Dec-07 2212562786
Jan-08 2098401063
Feb-08 2033133933
Mar-08 2289930560
Apr-08 2166737151
May-08 2098158213
Jun-08 2265552276
Jul-08 2148032914
Aug-08 1999392790

Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09

2386201871
2129066188
1904127951
2266677879
2096482070
2001785777
2359671381
2109591112
2090102905
2423239176
2223387418
2169273433
2604203255
2419929784

Di-Fi
Annual Average
Seasonality Index Forecast
1889151661.94
0.97
1814159689.73
1889151661.94
0.98
1853026614.32
1889151661.94
1.04
1999776351.42
1889151661.94
1.01
1978729790.32
2048476689.81
0.95
1873889583.62
2048476689.81
1.04
2087240929.69
2048476689.81
1.02
2073333590.18
2048476689.81
1
2062070072.18
2179967263.42
0.99
2076042545.22
2179967263.42
0.98
2090390834.35
2179967263.42
0.98
2099181079.59
2179967263.42
1
2170442263.54
0.97
2139470187.82
1
2235757280.15

1.01
1

|Di-Fi|
###
###
###
###
###
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###

###
###
###
###
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###
###

MAD
MFE
MAPE
CV

###
###

2500000000

2000000000

cast of demand
1500000000
Quarter

Quarter Average
Sales

1000000000

500000000

0
1

10

11

12

13

14

###
###
###
0.02

arter

10

Quarter Average
Sales

11

12

13

14

Forecast

15

16