Table 11.

3

Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/03/11 Time: 13:25
Sample: 1 30
ncluded observations: 30


Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.


C 9.290307 5.231386 1.775879 0.0866
X 0.637785 0.028617 22.28718 0.0000


R-squared 0.946638 Mean dependent var 119.7333
Adjusted R-squared 0.944732 S.D. dependent var 39.06134
S.E. of regression 9.182968 Akaike info criterion 7.336918
Sum squared resid 2361.153 Schwarz criterion 7.430332
Log likelihood -108.0538 Hannan-Quinn criter. 7.366802
F-statistic 496.7183 Durbin-Watson stat 1.702261
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000






Heteroskedasticity Test: Harvey


F-statistic 0.055539 Prob. F(1,28) 0.8154
Obs*R-squared 0.059388 Prob. Chi-Square(1) 0.8075
Scaled explained SS 0.090967 Prob. Chi-Square(1) 0.7630



Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: LRESD2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/03/11 Time: 13:28
Sample: 1 30
ncluded observations: 30


Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.


C 1.014015 7.274898 0.139385 0.8901
LOG(X) 0.335879 1.425225 0.235667 0.8154


R-squared 0.001980 Mean dependent var 2.724099
Adjusted R-squared -0.033664 S.D. dependent var 2.796326
S.E. of regression 2.843005 Akaike info criterion 4.991940
Sum squared resid 226.3149 Schwarz criterion 5.085354
Log likelihood -72.87911 Hannan-Quinn criter. 5.021824
F-statistic 0.055539 Durbin-Watson stat 1.435780
Prob(F-statistic) 0.815406







Heteroskedasticity Test: Glejser


F-statistic 3.774823 Prob. F(1,28) 0.0621
Obs*R-squared 3.563975 Prob. Chi-Square(1) 0.0590
Scaled explained SS 3.692381 Prob. Chi-Square(1) 0.0547



Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: ARESD
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/03/11 Time: 13:33
Sample: 1 30
ncluded observations: 30


Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.


C 1.112547 3.118907 0.356711 0.7240
X 0.033148 0.017061 1.942890 0.0621


R-squared 0.118799 Mean dependent var 6.852617
Adjusted R-squared 0.087328 S.D. dependent var 5.730748
S.E. of regression 5.474806 Akaike info criterion 6.302531
Sum squared resid 839.2579 Schwarz criterion 6.395944
Log likelihood -92.53797 Hannan-Quinn criter. 6.332415
F-statistic 3.774823 Durbin-Watson stat 1.003955
Prob(F-statistic) 0.062146





Heteroskedasticity Test: White


F-statistic 2.917301 Prob. F(2,27) 0.0713
Obs*R-squared 5.330902 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.0696
Scaled explained SS 4.592566 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.1006



Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESD^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/03/11 Time: 13:47
Sample: 1 30
ncluded observations: 30


Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.


C -12.29621 191.7731 -0.064119 0.9493
X 0.197385 2.368760 0.083329 0.9342
X^2 0.001700 0.006707 0.253503 0.8018


R-squared 0.177697 Mean dependent var 78.70511
Adjusted R-squared 0.116785 S.D. dependent var 112.5823
S.E. of regression 105.8043 Akaike info criterion 12.25570
Sum squared resid 302252.7 Schwarz criterion 12.39582
Log likelihood -180.8355 Hannan-Quinn criter. 12.30052
F-statistic 2.917301 Durbin-Watson stat 0.791307
Prob(F-statistic) 0.071274



Heteroskedasticity Test: Harvey


F-statistic 0.055539 Prob. F(1,28) 0.8154
Obs*R-squared 0.059388 Prob. Chi-Square(1) 0.8075
Scaled explained SS 0.090967 Prob. Chi-Square(1) 0.7630



Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: LRESD2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/11/11 Time: 21:18
Sample: 1 30
ncluded observations: 30


Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.


C 1.014015 7.274898 0.139385 0.8901
LOG(X) 0.335879 1.425225 0.235667 0.8154


R-squared 0.001980 Mean dependent var 2.724099
Adjusted R-squared -0.033664 S.D. dependent var 2.796326
S.E. of regression 2.843005 Akaike info criterion 4.991940
Sum squared resid 226.3149 Schwarz criterion 5.085354
Log likelihood -72.87911 Hannan-Quinn criter. 5.021824
F-statistic 0.055539 Durbin-Watson stat 1.435780
Prob(F-statistic) 0.815406







1able 64 n63

Dependent Variable: CM
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/11/11 Time: 21:32
Sample: 1 63
ncluded observations: 63


Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.


C 168.8448 34.09052 4.952837 0.0000
FLR -1.771876 0.256362 -6.911628 0.0000
PGNP -0.005504 0.001897 -2.900861 0.0052
TFR 12.79733 4.352770 2.940042 0.0047


R-squared 0.747391 Mean dependent var 141.4921
Adjusted R-squared 0.734547 S.D. dependent var 76.58832
S.E. of regression 39.45994 Akaike info criterion 10.24984
Sum squared resid 91868.12 Schwarz criterion 10.38591
Log likelihood -318.8698 Hannan-Quinn criter. 10.30335
F-statistic 58.18764 Durbin-Watson stat 2.170704
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000




Heteroskedasticity Test: Harvey


F-statistic 0.838332 Prob. F(3,59) 0.4783
Obs*R-squared 2.575710 Prob. Chi-Square(3) 0.4618
Scaled explained SS 1.587186 Prob. Chi-Square(3) 0.6623



Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: LRESD2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/11/11 Time: 21:45
Sample: 1 63
ncluded observations: 63


Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.


C 4.631132 2.767080 1.673653 0.0995
LOG(FLR) -0.197796 0.499797 -0.395752 0.6937
LOG(PGNP) 0.092908 0.270038 0.344055 0.7320
LOG(TFR) 0.941214 0.806760 1.166659 0.2480


R-squared 0.040884 Mean dependent var 6.060225
Adjusted R-squared -0.007884 S.D. dependent var 1.757821
S.E. of regression 1.764737 Akaike info criterion 4.035268
Sum squared resid 183.7436 Schwarz criterion 4.171340
Log likelihood -123.1109 Hannan-Quinn criter. 4.088785
F-statistic 0.838332 Durbin-Watson stat 1.901193
Prob(F-statistic) 0.478276





Heteroskedasticity Test: Glejser


F-statistic 2.285761 Prob. F(3,59) 0.0880
Obs*R-squared 6.559774 Prob. Chi-Square(3) 0.0873
Scaled explained SS 6.846592 Prob. Chi-Square(3) 0.0770



Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: ARESD
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/11/11 Time: 21:57
Sample: 1 63
ncluded observations: 63


Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.


C 12.97910 20.53409 0.632076 0.5298
FLR -0.065699 0.154417 -0.425466 0.6720
PGNP -0.000903 0.001143 -0.790373 0.4325
TFR 3.820289 2.621848 1.457098 0.1504


R-squared 0.104123 Mean dependent var 29.45624
Adjusted R-squared 0.058570 S.D. dependent var 24.49651
S.E. of regression 23.76831 Akaike info criterion 9.235970
Sum squared resid 33331.01 Schwarz criterion 9.372042
Log likelihood -286.9331 Hannan-Quinn criter. 9.289488
F-statistic 2.285761 Durbin-Watson stat 1.868244
Prob(F-statistic) 0.088048





































Heteroskedasticity Test: White


F-statistic 0.880209 Prob. F(9,53) 0.5486
Obs*R-squared 8.192108 Prob. Chi-Square(9) 0.5149
Scaled explained SS 8.164993 Prob. Chi-Square(9) 0.5176



Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESD^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/11/11 Time: 22:05
Sample: 1 63
ncluded observations: 63


Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.


C 5919.776 10497.69 0.563912 0.5752
FLR -117.9585 185.4108 -0.636201 0.5274
FLR^2 0.387522 1.001298 0.387020 0.7003
FLR*PGNP -0.016876 0.024194 -0.697536 0.4885
FLR*TFR 15.51278 19.21139 0.807478 0.4230
PGNP 1.985647 2.605034 0.762235 0.4493
PGNP^2 -3.81E-06 2.05E-05 -0.186162 0.8530
PGNP*TFR -0.175066 0.207885 -0.842129 0.4035
TFR -1159.951 2457.291 -0.472045 0.6388
TFR^2 82.97889 159.1546 0.521373 0.6043


R-squared 0.130033 Mean dependent var 1458.224
Adjusted R-squared -0.017697 S.D. dependent var 2216.064
S.E. of regression 2235.587 Akaike info criterion 18.40701
Sum squared resid 2.65E+08 Schwarz criterion 18.74719
Log likelihood -569.8209 Hannan-Quinn criter. 18.54081
F-statistic 0.880209 Durbin-Watson stat 1.954365
Prob(F-statistic) 0.548629



























1able 64 n64

Dependent Variable: CM
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/10/11 Time: 21:57
Sample: 1 64
ncluded observations: 64


Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.


C 168.3067 32.89165 5.117003 0.0000
FLR -1.768029 0.248017 -7.128663 0.0000
PGNP -0.005511 0.001878 -2.934275 0.0047
TFR 12.86864 4.190533 3.070883 0.0032


R-squared 0.747372 Mean dependent var 141.5000
Adjusted R-squared 0.734740 S.D. dependent var 75.97807
S.E. of regression 39.13127 Akaike info criterion 10.23218
Sum squared resid 91875.38 Schwarz criterion 10.36711
Log likelihood -323.4298 Hannan-Quinn criter. 10.28534
F-statistic 59.16767 Durbin-Watson stat 2.170318
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000




Heteroskedasticity Test: Harvey


F-statistic 0.723191 Prob. F(3,60) 0.5421
Obs*R-squared 2.233451 Prob. Chi-Square(3) 0.5254
Scaled explained SS 1.479000 Prob. Chi-Square(3) 0.6871



Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: LRESD2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/10/11 Time: 22:21
Sample: 1 64
ncluded observations: 64


Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.


C 5.659191 2.839144 1.993273 0.0508
LOG(FLR) -0.432340 0.509462 -0.848621 0.3995
LOG(PGNP) 0.149176 0.279704 0.533335 0.5958
LOG(TFR) 0.591669 0.824172 0.717894 0.4756


R-squared 0.034898 Mean dependent var 5.992975
Adjusted R-squared -0.013357 S.D. dependent var 1.822009
S.E. of regression 1.834137 Akaike info criterion 4.111487
Sum squared resid 201.8435 Schwarz criterion 4.246417
Log likelihood -127.5676 Hannan-Quinn criter. 4.164643
F-statistic 0.723191 Durbin-Watson stat 1.799540
Prob(F-statistic) 0.542093









Heteroskedasticity Test: Glejser


F-statistic 2.098861 Prob. F(3,60) 0.1098
Obs*R-squared 6.078462 Prob. Chi-Square(3) 0.1079
Scaled explained SS 6.477728 Prob. Chi-Square(3) 0.0905



Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: ARESD
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/10/11 Time: 21:58
Sample: 1 64
ncluded observations: 64


Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.


C 19.19552 20.11061 0.954497 0.3437
FLR -0.110914 0.151642 -0.731419 0.4674
PGNP -0.000812 0.001148 -0.707371 0.4821
TFR 2.999688 2.562175 1.170759 0.2463


R-squared 0.094976 Mean dependent var 29.02715
Adjusted R-squared 0.049725 S.D. dependent var 24.54363
S.E. of regression 23.92564 Akaike info criterion 9.248240
Sum squared resid 34346.17 Schwarz criterion 9.383170
Log likelihood -291.9437 Hannan-Quinn criter. 9.301395
F-statistic 2.098861 Durbin-Watson stat 1.819245
Prob(F-statistic) 0.109835






































Heteroskedasticity Test: White


F-statistic 0.766940 Prob. F(9,54) 0.6469
Obs*R-squared 7.253524 Prob. Chi-Square(9) 0.6107
Scaled explained SS 7.417115 Prob. Chi-Square(9) 0.5938



Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESD^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/10/11 Time: 21:59
Sample: 1 64
ncluded observations: 64


Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.


C 2985.931 10258.47 0.291070 0.7721
FLR -60.00400 179.8953 -0.333550 0.7400
FLR^2 0.130515 0.982800 0.132799 0.8948
FLR*PGNP -0.012167 0.023971 -0.507548 0.6138
FLR*TFR 8.478445 18.38229 0.461229 0.6465
PGNP 1.456256 2.577660 0.564953 0.5744
PGNP^2 -4.81E-06 2.05E-05 -0.234162 0.8157
PGNP*TFR -0.126704 0.204721 -0.618914 0.5386
TFR -446.0711 2394.793 -0.186267 0.8529
TFR^2 41.13147 155.8937 0.263843 0.7929


R-squared 0.113336 Mean dependent var 1435.553
Adjusted R-squared -0.034441 S.D. dependent var 2207.118
S.E. of regression 2244.804 Akaike info criterion 18.41323
Sum squared resid 2.72E+08 Schwarz criterion 18.75055
Log likelihood -579.2232 Hannan-Quinn criter. 18.54611
F-statistic 0.766940 Durbin-Watson stat 1.891420
Prob(F-statistic) 0.646936





1able 113

Dependent Variable: SALES
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/10/11 Time: 22:37
Sample: 1 18
ncluded observations: 18


Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.


C 9933.109 13769.27 0.721397 0.4818
RD 2.503599 3.587751 0.697818 0.4960
PROFTS 8.909536 1.826059 4.879106 0.0002


R-squared 0.798343 Mean dependent var 89775.32
Adjusted R-squared 0.771455 S.D. dependent var 80344.98
S.E. of regression 38410.03 Akaike info criterion 24.10104
Sum squared resid 2.21E+10 Schwarz criterion 24.24943
Log likelihood -213.9093 Hannan-Quinn criter. 24.12150
F-statistic 29.69180 Durbin-Watson stat 2.235708
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000006



Heteroskedasticity Test: Harvey


F-statistic 7.213659 Prob. F(2,15) 0.0064
Obs*R-squared 8.824852 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.0121
Scaled explained SS 7.307074 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.0259



Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: LRESD2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/10/11 Time: 22:39
Sample: 1 18
ncluded observations: 18


Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.


C 12.01422 2.117968 5.672520 0.0000
LOG(RD) 0.616486 0.396173 1.556104 0.1405
LOG(PROFTS) 0.352030 0.416050 0.846124 0.4108


R-squared 0.490270 Mean dependent var 19.32385
Adjusted R-squared 0.422305 S.D. dependent var 2.080007
S.E. of regression 1.580934 Akaike info criterion 3.904921
Sum squared resid 37.49030 Schwarz criterion 4.053316
Log likelihood -32.14429 Hannan-Quinn criter. 3.925383
F-statistic 7.213659 Durbin-Watson stat 1.943712
Prob(F-statistic) 0.006383













Heteroskedasticity Test: Glejser


F-statistic 10.25352 Prob. F(2,15) 0.0016
Obs*R-squared 10.39587 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.0055
Scaled explained SS 11.69515 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.0029



Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: ARESD
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/10/11 Time: 22:38
Sample: 1 18
ncluded observations: 18


Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.


C 6929.514 6268.202 1.105503 0.2864
RD 4.185947 1.633256 2.562946 0.0216
PROFTS 0.654285 0.831279 0.787082 0.4435


R-squared 0.577549 Mean dependent var 25026.66
Adjusted R-squared 0.521222 S.D. dependent var 25270.24
S.E. of regression 17485.44 Akaike info criterion 22.52714
Sum squared resid 4.59E+09 Schwarz criterion 22.67553
Log likelihood -199.7442 Hannan-Quinn criter. 22.54760
F-statistic 10.25352 Durbin-Watson stat 1.710490
Prob(F-statistic) 0.001561




Heteroskedasticity Test: White


F-statistic 10.14664 Prob. F(5,12) 0.0005
Obs*R-squared 14.55685 Prob. Chi-Square(5) 0.0124
Scaled explained SS 17.03147 Prob. Chi-Square(5) 0.0044



Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESD^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/10/11 Time: 22:40
Sample: 1 18
ncluded observations: 18


Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.


C 4.34E+08 6.04E+08 0.718056 0.4865
RD 547781.9 383600.1 1.428003 0.1788
RD^2 -230.3563 49.46225 -4.657215 0.0006
RD*PROFTS 159.4594 37.56787 4.244567 0.0011
PROFTS -329731.0 223678.3 -1.474130 0.1662
PROFTS^2 0.728017 9.209898 0.079047 0.9383


R-squared 0.808714 Mean dependent var 1.23E+09
Adjusted R-squared 0.729011 S.D. dependent var 2.32E+09
S.E. of regression 1.21E+09 Akaike info criterion 44.92500
Sum squared resid 1.75E+19 Schwarz criterion 45.22179
Log likelihood -398.3250 Hannan-Quinn criter. 44.96593
F-statistic 10.14664 Durbin-Watson stat 1.192493
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000549