Quantifying the impact of emerging

technologies
SG-2 models the impact of emerging technologies based on clinical trials, bench research, and practical
physician insight. There are six major quantitative factors that determine the overall expression of a
technology and its impact over time.
Modeling Assumption How is this quantified?
A year is assigned for when the technology will first be adopted or
1. Year of Introduction approved in a particular market.

The year in which a technology will be adopted by half of the institutions in

2. Year of Widespread Use a given market.

3. Decline Year The year the technology will be replaced or reduce in impact is also
defined.

4. Slope Value The adoption curve for the technology is completed by assigning an
adoption slope between the three points on the curve.

A value, on a scale of -1 to +1, is assigned to reflect the maximum percent

5. Magnitude of Impact change per year in discharges, ALOS, or outpatient substitution resulting
from a technology impacting a DRG or outpatient procedure. An impact
(“Impact Factor”) factor of +0.5 on inpatient discharges will maximally grow 50% of the
assigned DRG discharges per year.

A scale factor modulates all impact factors of a technology. This is

6. Scale Factor frequently used to adjust for disease severity and programmatic initiatives.

Impact factors are further modulated depending on the age of a particular

patient group. For example, the impact of technology on ALOS is reduced
7. Aging Factor for pediatric patients compared to adult patients.

The total impact of a technology per DRG or outpatient procedure is

the product of the adoption curve and the impact, scale, and aging 1
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