OOSE END TERM 2011

Ans 2(c)
The Delphi Method is based on a structured process for collecting and distilling knowledge from a group of experts by means of a series of questionnaires interspersed with controlled opinion feedback. According to Helmer Delphi represents a useful communication device among a group of experts and thus facilitates the formation of a group judgement. Wissema underlines the importance of the Delphi Method as a monovariable exploration technique for technology forecasting. He further states that the Delphi method has been developed in order to make discussion between experts possible without permitting a certain social interactive behavior as happens during a normal group discussion and hampers opinion forming. Baldwin aserts that lacking full scientific knowledge, decision-makers have to rely on their own intuition or on expert opinion. The Delphi method has been widely used to generate forecasts in technology, education, and other fields. The Delphi method offers the possibility to address a group of experts more efficiently than via interviews or surveys. In Delphi sessions experts are able to amend and act in response to all ideas posted by their peers. Consequently each expert has the opportunity to take all factors brought forward into account and integrate them into their final judgment. Due to sequencing and pre-structuring needed for interviews and questionnaires relevant insights could be missed, while these insights are easily expressed in the open format of a Delphi study. Apart from its strength on eliciting all kinds of important information, a Delphi also allows the study to fit easily into the work habits, time pressure and agenda constraints of the expert population.