SAA \‘ Excellence in Analysis TECHNICAL REPORT NO. TR-2006-4 DEVELOPMENT OF A MATHEMATICA TOOL FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF A PROGNOSTICS DECISION-MAKING PROCESS BASED ON COMPONENT LIFE HISTORY ae MARCH 2006 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION IS UNLIMITED. U.S. ARMY MATERIEL SYSTEMS ANALYSIS ACTIVITY ABERDEEN PROVING GROUND, MARYLAND 21005-5071DISCLAIMER The findings in this report are not to be construed as an official Department of the Army position unless so specified by other official documentation. WARNING Information and data contained in this document are based on the input available at the time of preparation. TRADE NAMES The use of trade names in this report does not constitute an official endorsement or approval of the use of such commercial hardware or software. The report may not be cited for purposes of advertisement.REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE cous Boers The poring tio of nen w eget epee ching ier ing mars, mang en dao, ing sin ‘ins campy niga nro Sed mms eng bes ima yet apt ta of set ig mae eg ‘bare Wan lager Sew Dwele Oral pos lena Devs Mp. Set; Aegon, VA 2502, na be Oe a Magee ‘u bps Pert fai Pret TOOT, Wasting DCS TLAGENCY USEONLY (LEAVEBLANK) | 2.REPORTDATE ‘REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED March 2006 Technical Report Development of a Mathematica Tool for Implementation of a Prognostics Decision-Making Process Based on Component Life History AUTHORS) Dr. Michael J. Cushing 7, PERFORMING ORGANZATION NAMES) AND ADDRESSES) + PERIORVNG ORGANIZATION Die favo sume USS. Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity 392 Hopkins Road TR-2006-4 Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD 21005-5071 1. SPONSORINGIMONTTORING AGENCY NAME) AND ADDRESS(ES) 70. sRONSORNGMONTTORNG Director AoBNCY REPORT MOMBER U.S. Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity 392 Hopkins Road Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD 21005-5071 1, SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES Tan DISTRIBUTIOWAVAILADILITY STATEMENT 12h DISTURLTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. A 19, ABSTRACT taxi 200 wor) ‘The key benefit of prognostics is that it can be used to reduce failure risks during deployments and missions when failure is particularly disadvantageous and maintenance inconvenient due to the reduced logistics footprint. One approach to prognostics is to monitor usage in conjunction with an aging model thereby keeping track of remaining component lifetime. This enables ‘one to track usage with on-board sensors and embed an algorithm in on-system logistics software that will automatically generate ‘maintenance alerts and recommendations so that a covered component can likely be replaced before failure as its remaining lifetime decreases and failure risk increases. An additional benefit of usage-based prognostic is that it can also be used to identify an optimum replacement age that minimizes life cycle costs for components that age, provided the costs of in-service failure are greater than planned replacement which is often the case. This report documents the development and application of a collection of functions writen in Mathematica that can be used to implement usage-based prognostics using life distributions for components that become less reliable with usage. 14 SUBIECT TERMS 1S NUMBER OF PAGES 16 PRICE CODE. 1, SECURITY CLASSIMCATIONOF IA SECURITY CLASSICATION | 19 SECURITY CLASSIRCATION | 28 UMITATION OF ABSTRACT UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED ee NSN 7540.01 280 5500 “Suandard Form 208 (ev. 75) Psa ANSI Sa 298