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Next,wellcomputetheexcessreturnstimeseries.Forriskfreereturns,wellusethe4weeksTBillasa proxy,andrerunthesameanalysiswedidwithrawreturns. Thenwelllookcloserforevidenceofanyoutliersthatmaybiasouranalysis,whichwillhelpusidentify onepotentialoutlieronApril2009.Toassesstheoutlierimpactonouranalysis,wereplaceitsvalue withaplugvalueandnotethechangeondifferentstats. Finally,wellestablishasimplebandtoidentifypotentialoutliersthatmayaffectouranalysis,andfind oneobservationwithanexceptionallyhighreturn. Insum,thesingleoutlierobservationsinglehandedgeneratesfavorableresults,andthereturnstime seriesdoesnotlookimpressive(tosaytheleast)withoutit.Thequestionweoughttoaskis,howlikely isitthattheoutlierobservationwillberepeatedinthefuture?
Analysis
Forsampledata,weareusinganactivemanagerportfoliosmonthlyreturnsbetweenMay2003and September2010.
25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Nov03 Nov04 Nov05 Nov06 Nov07 Nov08 Nov09 Feb04 Feb05 Feb06 Feb07 Feb08 Feb09 May03 May04 May05 May06 May07 May08 May09 Feb10 May10 Aug03 Aug04 Aug05 Aug06 Aug07 Aug08 Aug09 Aug10
%Returns
Letsrunthesummarystatisticsoftherawmonthlyreturns:
Alphaisariskadjustedmeasureofthesocalledactivereturnonaninvestment.Itisthereturninexcessofthe compensationfortheriskborne,andthuscommonlyusedtoassessactivemanagers'performances. 2 Thebrokeragefeesandothertradingexpensesarealreadyaccountedforinthereturns.
1
DemystifyingTradingStrategyReturns
SpiderFinancialCorp,2012
3.0
45%
2.0
40%
Normal
1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 EDF 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
ra r rf
ra istheadjustedorexcessreturn
rf istheriskfreereturn
r istheportfoliorawreturn
6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%
Nov03 Nov04 Nov05 Nov06 Nov07 Nov08 Nov09 Feb04 Feb05 Feb06 Feb07 Feb08 Feb09 May03 May04 May05 May06 May07 May08 May09 Feb10 May10 Aug03 Aug04 Aug05 Aug06 Aug07 Aug08 Aug09 Aug10
%Discount TBill
rBEY
rd 365 360 rd 28
f Furthermore,tocomputetheequivalentriskfreereturnforagivenholdingperiod( rt (t) d ):
Where:
f rt (t) d rBEY
d isthenumberofdaysinagivenholdingperiod
Nowletsplottheexcessortheadjustedreturnsalongwiththeoriginalreturns.Thedifferenceis relativelysmall,andwecanvisuallydistinguishthetworeturnsapart.
25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% AdjReturns OrigReturns
Nov03
Nov04
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Nov08
May03
May04
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DemystifyingTradingStrategyReturns
SpiderFinancialCorp,2012
Letsexaminethegeneralstatisticalpropertiesoftheadjustedreturns.
Normal
25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 9.2% 5.2% 1.1% 3.0% 7.0% 11.1% 15.2% 19.3%
1 0 1 2 3 3 2 1 0 EDF 1 2 3 4
Inessence,wearecomputingthequartilesandinterquartilerangeusingtheobservationvalues realizedtothatmoment.
DemystifyingTradingStrategyReturns
SpiderFinancialCorp,2012
25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 9.3% 5.2% 1.2% 2.8% 6.8% 10.8%
3 3 2 1 0 EDF 1 2 3
DemystifyingTradingStrategyReturns
SpiderFinancialCorp,2012
Conclusion
Inouranalysis,theoriginalstrategyreturnsexhibitedastatisticallysignificantmean.Someanalystsmay confusethisparameterwiththestrategysalpha,buttheyarenotthesame.Thealphacanbeonly computedwithexcessreturns(returnsbeyondtheriskfreeinvestment,suchasTBill). Analyzingtheexcessreturnsofthestrategy,themeanisnolongersignificantlydifferentfromzero,but thereturnsdistributionexhibitsafattailontherightside.Diggingdeeper,wefoundthatthisisdue primarilytooneoutliervalue. Insum,basedontheprovideddata,theemployedstrategydoesnotyieldastatisticallysignificantalpha. WhataboutthereturnsonApril2009;shouldwedismissthose?Itdepends,butweoughttoaska differentquestion:howlikelyisthereturnwesawinApril2009toreoccurinthefuture?Ifitisaone timeincident,Idsuggestdroppingitfromthesampledataandapplyingaplugvalueinitsplace.
DemystifyingTradingStrategyReturns
SpiderFinancialCorp,2012