Anderson, David, and Heather Maki. Pakistan's Nuclear Defense Ambitions and US Relations. Rep.

Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, 2008. Web.

The War on Terror in the Afghan/Pakistan border region must be placed increasingly on Pakistan to be truly effective. However, the U.S. must assist Pakistan in winning over the hearts and minds of Pakistanis and FATA tribal leaders, and ultimately try to return ownership of their tribal area. This will require continuous dialogue and (again) military/economic assistance. Violence in the tribal areas must be addressed through dialogue and military means before economic means can ultimately work. Capacity-building programs for the provincial governments and greater coordination and integration of the various security forces in the tribal areas must be implemented. Pakistans effort in the War on Terror is vital. Over 85,000 Pakistani troops are currently deployed along the Afghan-Pakistan border, and more than 1,200 of them have already sacrificed their lives in counterterrorism operations, as compared to the approximately 500 U.S. casualties in Operation Enduring Freedom. Pakistan has granted overflight rights, allowed the U.S. forces use of two Pakistani airfields, and shared intelligence about suspected terrorists. They have worked with the FBI to capture suspected Al Qaeda and Taliban fugitives who fled into northern Pakistan and in some cases, committed its own troops to hunt down Al Qaeda operatives such as Khalid Sheikh Muhammad and Rams Binalshibh to disperse further into Pakistan where their surroundings are less congenial to their extremist ideologies. These collective efforts and results have now made Islamabad a target for terrorist activities from multiple groups

Aid to the Military Remains Essential

Anderson, David, and Heather Maki. Pakistan's Nuclear Defense Ambitions and US Relations. Rep. Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, 2008. Web.
Pakistans military is one of the most important, respected, and oftentimes the only effectively functioning

institution in the country. Although troubled by corruption and ethnic, sectarian and linguistic divisions, Pakistans military still reliably operates in the national interest.54 The relationship between the military and Pakistans population is vital to maintaining a moderate Islamic state. The insurgents attempts to exploit situations to cause conflict between the two elements could cause real damage to Pakistans stability, and the military is cognizant of this fact.55 The U.S. should focus on building Pakistans capacity to fight this insurgency and bridging the differences between Afghanistan and Pakistan, emphasizing Pakistans sovereign responsibility to combat threats to international peace and security within its borders. The U.S. should significantly increase current military assistance to the Frontier Corps above the levels proposed by U.S. Special Operations Command to train and arm tribal leaders to fight Al-Qaeda and Taliban and provide a $750 million aid package for improving law enforcement and local security capacity along the border area over the next five years.56 In other words, the United States can help by refocusing its military assistance to Pakistan on equipment and training for counterinsurgencynot additional supplies of supersonic strike aircraft.

A. Withholding Civilian Aid Makes Pakistan Think We Wish Them Harm Saeed Shah, US Suspends Pakistan Military Aid as Diplomatic Relations Worsen, The Guardian, July 10, 2011, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/10/ussuspendspakistanmilitary-aid: There are also questions hanging over future civilian aid, which is meant to provide $1.5bn a year in economic help. Cyril Almeida, a columnist with Pakistan's Dawn newspaper, said the country was in danger of becoming internationally isolated, while US policy towards Pakistan was muddled. The US can't decide they if they want to stay in this relationship or cut Pakistan off," he said. "These leaks and pressure tactics just confirm to the army generals the view that America is no friend of Pakistan and it wishes Pakistan harm.

Pakistan Too Important to Lose

Vira, Varun, and Anthony Cordesman. Pakistan: Violence vs. Stability. Rep. Center for Strategic and International Studies, 5 May 2011. Web. 8 Feb. 2012. <http://csis.org/files/publication/110504_stabilizing_pakistan.pdf>.
See the Center For Strategic and International Studies in the Organization Index for more info. Pakistan is a pivotal regional player, whose problems affect the security of other countries in the region, and that of the United States. It has the potential to be either a major disruptive force or a major source of stability, in assisting end to violence in Afghanistan, in assisting in the peaceful rise of India, and helping constrain Irans bid for Middle Eastern hegemony. (Pg. vi-vii) At present, Pakistan seems to be on a downward course. Its leadership is not adequately addressing either the causes of Pakistan's internal violence, or the needs of its people. Its politics are corrupt and self-serving, and far too many indicators reflect its failure to adopt policies that serve popular needs or meet popular expectations. It is playing a form of the great game which forces it to confront India on a region-wide basis and into a nuclear arms race. It has unleashed levels of religious extremism that not only threaten its Shiite minorities but also its moderate Sunni majority. At the same time, it continues a long history of shifting the blame for its own actions to other states, and relying on political rhetoric as a substitute for effective action. (Pg. vi-vii) This presents major problems for the United States both in finding some favorable outcome to the Afghan conflict, and in helping to create some form of regional stability in South Asia a greater US strategic interest than the future of Afghanistan and Central Asia. However, US options are limited. US military intervention inside Pakistan is deeply resented by both the Pakistani people and its leadership elite. US military assistance has so far won only grudging and limited support and economic assistance has failed to win broad support or achieve any major objectives. Cross border sanctuaries -- which are tolerated by at least some elements of the Pakistani security establishment -- remain significant havens for Taliban insurgents. (Pg. vi-vii) At the same time, the US, its allies in ISAF, and the Afghan government need every bit of military, and counterterrorism cooperation from Pakistan they can get. Even limited Pakistani intelligence support is crucial

in providing them with an understanding of militant dynamics. They are also dependent on a logistic tail that keeps them reliant on a transit route through Pakistan. (Pg. vi-vii)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-23/afghan-stability-undermined-by-pakistan-generalsays.html

Hard-won stability in Afghanistans Helmand Province is undermined by the Pakistan Armys failure to help stem the flow of arms coming into the area and drugs going out, a U.S. general said. Everything is good, but its not irreversible, Marine Corps Major General John Toolan said in an interview inWashington yesterday after appearing before the Atlantic Council, a policy research group. He ended a one-year tour last month as the commander in charge of the NATO coalitions southwestern regional command responsible for Helmand.

Enlarge image

AFP via Getty Images

An Afghan policeman stands guard as a pile of narcotics is destroyed by officials in Lashkar Gah, capital of Helmand province.

An Afghan policeman stands guard as a pile of narcotics is destroyed by officials in Lashkar Gah, capital of Helmand province. Source: AFP via Getty Images Toolans prognosis highlights the risks as the U.S.-led coalition turns its attention to eastern Afghanistan and prepares to withdraw more forces this year. President Barack Obama plans to cut U.S. troops by 23,000 more this year in preparation for handing control to Afghan authorities by the end of 2014.

With reductions planned by other countries in the 50-nation coalition, about 108,000 personnel will be left until a next round of cuts. The number of U.S. Marines in Helmand is due to drop to 7,000 by October from about 20,000 now, Toolan said in the interview. We need to maintain the pressure, Toolan told the Atlantic Council audience. The insurgency in the south is the greatest threat to the government of Afghanistan. Haqqani Network The guerrillas known as the Haqqani network, who mainly operate in the countrys east from havens across the Pakistani border, have received attention beyond their potential longer-term impact on Afghanistan, Toolan said. The Haqqanis mainly operate to maintain themselves rather than to achieve any grander designs, he said. As the insurgency goes, the Haqqani network goes,Toolan said. If you can keep a lid on the insurgency, the Haqqani network is not going to be as all-powerful as some people talk it up to be. In Helmand, the need to place forces at the border detracts from efforts elsewhere in the province to compensate for a weak central Afghan government and drug-fueled corruption, Toolan said. I know for a fact that drugs are moving out throughPakistan and lethal aid is coming in on a regular basis,Toolan told the Atlantic Council. I have had no support from 12th Corps, the Pakistan Army unit in charge of the area across the border, he said. He said he tried to organize meetings with the corps to discuss the issue. There always seemed to be something that interfered, he said. Pakistans Response A spokesman for Pakistans embassy in Washington, Nadeem Hotiana, said coordination on common threats has occurred in regular three-way talks among border officials from his country, Afghanistan and the coalition led by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

There are certain trilateral meetings where such issues can be discussed, Hotiana said yesterday in an interview, declining to comment further. Pakistan sees it in its own interest to cooperate on narcotics trafficking and the cross-border arms trade because they threaten everyone involved, said another Pakistani official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he isnt authorized to comment publicly. Pakistans military makes sincere efforts within its limitations, the official said. The U.S. and Pakistan have struggled to rebuild relations, dashed every few months by a confrontation. In January 2011, a CIA employee shot dead two Pakistani men in Lahore. U.S. special operations forces killed al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in May during a raid conducted without notice to Pakistan in its army garrison town of Abbottabad. In November, helicopters of the NATO coalition in Afghanistan inadvertently killed 26 Pakistani troops at the border. Poppy Cultivation In Helmand Province, corrupt Afghan officials and security forces and the continuing financial temptations of poppy cultivation also endanger efforts by the coalition and legitimate local authorities to win over the population from the Taliban, Toolan said. If the central government of Afghanistan doesnt stay strong, then there are individuals in the central government who can significantly hurt the progress thats been made, the general said. The answer may be to more aggressively apply provisions of Afghanistans constitution that delegate authority to local officials, he said. The Afghan army and police will continue to need robust backing from international forces through 2014, Toolan said. That includes intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance technology to supplement their human intelligence sources, as well as training in military medicine and even firing accuracy, he said. The U.S. is deploying surveillance balloons with full-motion video to buttress the Afghan forces as the coalition draws back to an advising role, Toolan said. The police also need

more training by experts in the field rather than thedabbling that coalition military forces are able to provide, he said. To contact the reporter on this story: Viola Gienger in Washington at vgienger@bloomberg.net.

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/instability-in-pakistan-afghanistan-will-affect-india-iafchief/942853/

Effects of instability in Pakistan and Afghanistan will be felt in India and the next two years are crucial watershed years for the country's security, Air Chief Marshal N A K Browne said today. "2013 and 2014 are crucial watershed years as far as India's security is concerned in the backdrop of instability writ large in Afghanistan and Pakistan," he said delivering Air Chief Marshal L M Khatre Memorial lecture here. Browne feared that the effects of worsened instability in Afghanistan region, especially after the pull out of US military troops from the region, would reach the Wagah border. "And of course you heard what (Lashkar founder) Hafeez Saeed has said in Peshawar recently. He (Saeed) wants to recover Muslim parts of Kashmir for Pakistan," he said. Browne later told reporters, the world was trying to make sure the armed and police forces in the region were capable of facing the challenge of Taliban attacks. "They have shown some good results during the recent Taliban attacks on Afghanistan capital Kabul. We hope in the next two years the Afghan police and armed forces take the responsibility of handling these situations," he said. If Afghanistan police and armed forces are unable to handle the situation, then security in the neighbouring region would further downslide, Browne said.

On India's border problems with Pakistan and China, he said, "These have remained unresolved... they do not want to resolve it... Even if they want to resolve they want most of the points in their favour."