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Lake President Alysia Snell Partner Michael Perry Partner David Mermin Partner Robert G. Meadow, Ph.D. Partner Daniel R. Gotoff Partner Joshua E. Ulibarri Partner Tresa Undem Partner Robert X. Hillman Acting Chief Operating Officer Rick A. Johnson Senior Vice President
To:
Interested Parties
From: Celinda Lake, Daniel Gotoff, and Alex Dunn, Lake Research Partners Re: Economic Messaging Opportunities
Date: August 31, 2012 A recent nationwide survey uncovers several Democratic economic message frames that defeat the Republican economic message, and that boast impressive advantages among important constituencies for the upcoming election.1 The messages rely, in turn, on themes of job creation, economic fairness, investment, and a contrast with the GOP on priorities. Each features a consistent corea proactive agenda built around spurring new innovation, improving education, and rebuilding key infrastructure. The most successful frame is anchored in economic populism, juxtaposing the windfall profits of a handful of millionaires and billionaires with the steady erosion of Americas working middle class. The Republican alternative testeda message shaped using the current Romney-Ryan campaign language in all its rhetorical blusterpulls no punches in lambasting President Obama (the text of the arguments is included on the last page of this memo). In the end, each of the Democratic frames outperforms the GOP version by five to seven percentage points. It is important to remember that at the time of the survey, Democrats trailed Republicans, 40% to 49%, on which party would better handle the economy.2 Perhaps more significant, these frames present important openings for reaching groups of voters that will be pivotal (up and down the ballot) on Election Day. Populism and Job Creation, a message focused on rebuilding the middle class through a Made-in-America agenda that cracks down on job outsourcing, unfair
Lake
Research
Partners
designed
and
administered
this
online
survey
of
1,581
likely
voters
nationwide.
The
survey
was
conducted
across
two
waves
between
August
16
-22,
2012.
The
margin
of
error
is
+/-2.5%.
2
GWU/Politico
Battleground
Poll
by
Lake
Research
Partners
and
Tarrance
Group.
N=
1,000
registered,
likely
voters
nationwide.
August
5-9,
2012.
MoE:
+/-
3.1%.
1726
M
Street,
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|
Washington,
DC
20036
|
T
202.776.9066
|
F
202.776.9074
WASHINGTON,
DC
|
BERKELEY,
CA
|
NEW
YORK,
NY
|
LOS
ANGELES,
CA
|
RICHMOND,
VA
www.lakeresearch.com
trade deals, and corporate tax loopholes, bests the Republican argument by five points (47% to 42%). This message also edges the GOPs in intensity (33% agree much more with the Democratic message compared to 31% who agree much more with the GOP message). Populism and Fairness juxtaposes the plight of the middle class with the richest Americans and the system they rigged in their favor, calling for raising the minimum wage and calling on millionaires and corporations to pay their fair share. This version of our populism framework eclipses the Republican message by six points overall (47% to 41%) and by five points in intensity (32% to 27%). Populism & Jobs vs. GOP Message Populism & Fairness vs. GOP Message
47
42
47
41
33
31
32
27
Democrats Republicans Democrats Republicans Both populism frames generate considerable enthusiasm among three core groups: Swing Women: women choose both populism frames over the GOP alternative by 16 points. The jobs-oriented argument performs roughly equally among women of all ages, while the fairness argument fares much better among younger women, who prefer it to the Republican frame 58% to 27%. The Democratic base: 71% of Democrats side with Populism and Jobs strongly, compared to 74% who strongly side with Populism and Fairness. Democrats choose both populism messages over the Republican alternative by 91 points. Recent data has shown that white working class voters continue to be a target for both Presidential campaigns. While these populist economic frames cannot erase Romneys advantage among white working class voters overnight, they offer the opportunity to make important gains, in particular among white working women. White working women split between Populism and Jobs and the GOP message on intensity (30% each) and choose the GOP message overall by just an 8-point margin (38% Democratic message, 45% GOP message).
This comes at a time when white non-college educated women identify with Republicans over Democrats, 48% to 37%, and favor the GOP on the economy by 50% to 36%.3 GOPs Wrong Priorities presents the biggest contrast, outlining Democrats plan to create middle class jobs and new investment by asking the wealthy to pay their fair share, rather than cutting taxes on millionaires and gutting Medicare and education. It trumps the Republican message 48% to 41%, and leads 32% to 28% in intensity. While all of these messages appeal to younger voters, Wrong Priorities drives a massive 48-point lead among voters under 30, including nearly half (47%) who side with Democrats strongly. It is also the catalyst for a 22- point lead among independents. Long-Term Investment articulates a boldand ongoingstrategy for infrastructure investments to restart our economy. It leads the Republican argument 48% to 40% and is the strongest message in the South (47% Democratic message, 43% GOP message). It also appeals to independent voters, who choose the investment message over the Republican alternative 34% to 23%. GOPs Wrong Priorities vs. GOP Message Long-Term Investment vs. GOP Message
48
41
48
40
32
28
29
29
Democrats Republicans Democrats Republicans Bottom Line: While each of the four frameworks explored in this research has the power to overcome the composite Republican message, an aggressive economic frame that features populist themes, and proposals designed to rebuild the middle class, offers progressives important message opportunities. These frames also demonstrate broad appeal to quintessential base and swing groups, allowing for effective targeting among turnout targets like Democrats, young voters, and women, as well as persuasion targets, like independents.
Ibid.
Long-Term
Investment:
Democrats
say
we
need
to
move
on
a
bold
strategy
to
get
this
economy
going
again,
not
short-term
schemes
that
only
help
corporations
and
the
wealthy.
But
the
Republican
call
for
slashing
spending
while
giving
more
tax
breaks
to
the
wealthy
has
failed
before.
We
need
to
start
now
to
make
investments
vital
to
a
strong
economyinnovation
and
research,
education,
rebuilding
our
decaying
infrastructureroads,
sewers,
schools,
and
our
outdated
energy
grid.
Lets
take
half
the
money
we
were
spending
on
war
and
put
millions
back
to
work
right
here
in
the
United
States
of
America,
making
our
country
a
center
for
innovation
and
growth
again.
48%
Dems
(29%
strong)
to
40%
GOP
(29%
strong)