FirstpostEbook Ebook UPA 20120921055106

DIDIS BOMBSHELL AND
ITS AFTERMATH
Table of contents
The final cut

Mamatas shock: Will UPA-2 endgame mirror UPA-1? Mamatas master stroke or a 72-hour tamasha? Why the Congress may see virtue in life without Mamata Dear Mr PM, just post a message on Didis Facebook wall TMC remains defiant, say no compromise with UPA 04 06 09 11 13
What makes Didi angry?

Mamatas rage: How Congress flunked the EQ test Abhimaan, thy name is Mamata The madness of Queen Mamata Mamata Banerjee, the domestic (abuse) Goddess 15 17 19 23
Will the UPA survive?

Mamata bombshell leaves UPA -2 in deeper crisis Post-Mamata, Mulayam to bail out UPA for secularisms sake PM as Achilles Heel: Sonias script went wrong in 2004 26 28 30
The fate of the reforms

Why the next elections will be a referendum on reforms Opposition parties want FDI in retail rolled back Govt planning to bring more economic reforms: Khurshid 34 36 37
The Mamata impact:

How Mamata is denting the rupee and bloating the oil bill Is Mamata Banerjee the new voice of Indias left? 39 43
Copyright 2012 Firstpost
The final cut
Will UPA-2 endgame mirror UPA-1?

UPA II has become a minority Government at the centre. An angry Mamta Banerjees kept her promise on diesel price hike and FDI in retail - rollback or count the Trinamool Congress out.
Sanjay Singh, Sep 18, 2012
Mamatas shock:
PA-2I has become a minority government at the centre. An angry Mamata Banerjee has kept her 72-hour warning to the government on the diesel price hike and FDI in retail by withdrawing support to the government when the rollback didnt happen. She withdrew support on Tuesday evening. From the required majority mark of 272, the Congress-led Manmohan Singh government has been reduced to 254. Nineteen months ahead of the next general elec-
tions, when parliamentary elections are otherwise scheduled in April-May 2014, it could just prove to be too tricky for the Congress to keep on managing the numbers in Parliament all the time. The Mamata withdrawal puts a question-mark on the delivery of the supposed reform package, an issue on which an adamant Prime Minister Manmohan Singh forced her out, to the extent of putting the continuance of the government at stake.
The PM and Congress strategists may been guided by the ultimate results of the vote on the nuclear deal in July 2008, when the Samajwadi Party (SP) rather unexpectedly supported UPA2 on the withdrawal of Left Front support. No two situations are the same, but the Congress leadership would hope for a repeat situation of UPA-1. It would like to believe that with Mamata Banerjees exit, Mulayam Singh Yadav, with his 22 SP members, and Mayawati, with her 21 BSP members, will continue to support the government to perpetuity. In announcing the withdrawal of support, Mamata surprised all. Not many, and least of all the Congress, had hoped that she could be that tough. After all they had succeeded in taming her in the Presidential elections. She turned her media conference to announce the withdrawal of support to send a message to her social constituency. So much so, in her own words, the six Trinamool ministers led by Mukul Roy will land in Delhi on Friday and after offering Juma Namaz (Fridays Namaz) they will hand over their resignation to the prime minister. Almost a quarter of West Bengal electorate constitutes Muslims and the resignations after Juma Namaz is directly addressed to that vote bank. She also revealed that she had told UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi that she must intervene for a rollback, otherwise the TMC would have to walk out of the coalition. The intent of this revelation was to put the onus for withdrawal of support on Sonia and the Congress party, which she called a blackmailer. She almost echoed BJP veteran LK Advanis words when she accused the UPA of suddenly opening the FDI gate to divert attention from Coalgate. To add to the Congresss woes, its second largest partner, the DMK, with 18 members, appears all set to join the SP-Left Front and NDA Bharat bandh call on 20 September.
The first response from Samajawadi Party leader Ramgopal Yadav could not be encouraging for the Congress. The opposition NDAs Chairman LK Advani came out with a sharp attack: Disintegration of this government has started. Its a matter of time before it collapses. It is certain that it will not continue till 2014. The BJP and the NDA will, however, wait till the 20 September Bharat bandh to see how the two outside supporters, SP or BSP, officially make their moves. It has decided to urge President Pranab Mukherjee to call for a special session of Parliament to discuss FDI with the provision to vote. That could make the Congresss position very critical, which has so far always maintained that it was ready to debate any issue in Parliament. The Samajwadi Party too is sulking, particularly after the prime minister completely ignored its vociferous opposition to quotas in promotion and went ahead with the advice of BSP chief Mayawati on the subject. Mamatas shock treatment to UPA not just puts a question mark on the announced reforms but also on those which Finance Minister P Chidambaram had only a day ago announced would be coming in days to come. Those could now go to the freezer unless they are pure administrative moves. The UPA leadership seems to have a fair idea as to what was coming even as the secondrung leaders maintained a brave front. Just as Mamata was meeting with her leaders to discuss the modalities of withdrawal, Sonia Gandhi drove to the prime ministers residence on 7 Race Course Road for a one-on-one meeting with Manmohan Singh. It was initially speculated that they were discussing a cabinet reshuffle and overhaul of the organisational structure. The agenda for the meeting, as it transpired later, was much more serious.
a 72-hour tamasha?
In lackadaisical Bengal it takes 72 hours to do anything, even pull the plug on her partys role in UPA2. That means 72 more hours of fevered Mamata-watching in the media.
Sandip Roy, Sep 19, 2012
Mamatas master stroke or
Mamata Banerjee gave a 72 hour deadline to the UPA to accede to her demands. The taxis in Kolkata are going on strike for 72 hours from Thursday. Mamata announced on Tuesday that her ministers would resign on and shed pull support from UPA-2 but that it would actually happen
hats with this mysterious 72 hours?
on Friday thats about 72 hours later. When I called the water filter company about the non-working water filter they said Sorry, sir. We apologise for the inconvenience. We have put it on emergency status. We will get the part by tomorrow. Or within 72 hours for sure. In lackadaisical Bengal, everything, even pulling the plug, takes at least 72 hours. Even when patients go into the ICU, the doctor says gravely
The next 72 hours will be critical. CPM leader Anjan Bera told the Bengali news channel 24 Ghonta with a smirk that this is all a 72 hour political tamasha. She is just waiting for a call from Delhi. Be that as it may, Mamata has shown that she can hold the media hostage to her whims at least 72 hours at a time. As the Tuesday Trinamool meeting dragged on and on, news channels in Kolkata were reduced to studios full of analysts playing the waiting game in prime time. It was like watching cricket commentators trying to fill the airwaves as they waited for a rain-delayed match to resume. Mamatawatching has become quite the political pundit art form. And most of them frequently end up red-faced. While the CPM was predictable in its stances, Mamatas Ma Maati Manush stance shifts with her. But the latest pullout, whether its a masterstroke or brinkmanship, has left everyone tied up in knots. Consider this. Mamata has shown that she can hold the media hostage to her whims at least 72 hours at a time. Who is in bed with whom? Mamata is pulling out on basically the same issues that the NDA is calling a Bharat Bandh and the CPM is calling a Bengal Bandh on Thursday. So that suddenly makes Trinamool bedfellows with sworn enemy CPM. And the CPM is in bed with its sworn enemy the BJP. However Mamata herself is dead set against the bandh saying it will cost the state 200 crore. Where do we have that kind of money? she asked. She is basically saying one days bandh on the issue is unacceptable. Possibly pulling down the government is OK. Trinamools Madan Mitra said Mamata has taken the party to a new height and they are all proud to be with her in her fight. The Congress Om Prakash Mishra scoffed on television that Trinamool had become a prisoner of their own rhetoric. Whats up with Bengal?
The CPM is rushing to distance itself from Mamata. Its withdrawal of support from the UPA on the matter of the nuclear deal is still a sore topic in many quarters. Now will Bengal have the distinction of bringing down another government over letting in Walmart? A CPM leader snorted We had a matter of principle. They just hold out for a 50 paisa reduction. BJP leader Rahul Sinha conjectured that the CPM cannot wait for Trinamool to exit UPA-II so it can rush into the void. This government is only sticking around because of its black money and playing the CBI card, he said. All politics is local Though Mamata said she was striking a blow for the common people most analysts agree that its really about the upcoming panchayat polls. The Congress is already making preparations for going it alone. And Mamata does not want to go into the polls with the CPM hammering her on the head for being a party to the rise in diesel prices. FDI might seem unreal yet to most people, but diesel is essential. And Mamata wants to make sure she appears as the one fighting the good fight against its price hike. It does not matter if she cannot prevent it as long as she can say look, I gave up my ministries to oppose it. In her grand exit Didi has proved that ultimately her first priority is her base in Bengal. Mamata has proved that she believes whatever happens to the country doesnt matter but she has to save her party, fumed Adhir Chowdhury, Congress leader from Behrampore. The boss speaks last What surprised people most about the grand announcement was how it happened. Usually Mamata proposes, her party nods. This time according to the ABP Ananda reporter, Mamata asked her party leaders to speak first starting with the disgraced former Railway Minister Dinesh Trivedi. She listened to everyone and then gave her opinion. That must have been an unusually nerve-racking exercise for a party thats used to play follow-the-leader. Only a couple of Trinamool leaders, Sougata Roy and Debabrata Bandyapadhyay, apparently suggested that the party quit the ministry but stay in the UPA so as not to endanger rail projects in progress in Bengal. Others had brought their resignation letters
with them. With friends like this An aggrieved Mamata told the media that she knows the Congress will now go to a Mayawati or a Mulayam to prop them up. But I am sorry to say, those who cannot keep friendship with us, cant keep friendship with anyone. Her friends chose to play down the departure calling her a valuable ally. But Adhir Chowdhury made no secret of his glee. She had kept saying catch me, catch me or I will jump. She just wants some attention. While the national Congress is trying to watch what it says the local leaders in Bengal are itching to jump ship. State president Pradip Bhattacharya told the media that Bengals Congress ministers were eagerly waiting to quit Mamatas ministry. Of course, Mamata does not need the Congress in Bengal the way the Congress needed her in Delhi. But the Congress in Bengal is hardly in any position to take on TMC since Mamata has poached most of their leaders already. TMC, we hardly knew you Funnily Congress ministers in Kolkata had the same gripes that her men in Delhi had no
respect, no work. Our ministers have time and again expressed their desire to come out of Mamatas government given the way they are treated, Bhattacharya said. Mamatas ministers in UPA-II complain they dont get any respect either. But as The Telegraph pointed out today her ministers are rarely seen in office either. Most people werent even aware there were 6 TMC ministers in UPA-II. Choudhury Mohan Jatua, the minister of state for I&B says he never gets files sent to him. Sultan Ahmed, minister of state for tourism says Kumari Selja, the senior minister never sends him anything. Mukul Roy, the rail minister is more often seen at Didis side than in Rail Bhavan. JD(U) chief Sharad Yadav snidely remarked, Railway minister ko khabar kar dena, subah shaam, hum unki yaad karte hain (convey to the Railway Minister that we remember him all the time). For the record, after asking for that 72 hour window, the water filter company found its missing part within four hours. The Mamata crisis shows no signs of arriving at a resolution with such alacrity. She said she didnt know if the government would last three months or six months. Stay tuned. More in 72 hours, surely.
Why the Congress may see

virtue in life without Mamata
The Congress may see merit in accepting Mamata Banerjees dare - and refuse to roll back economic reforms - because it gives it a chance to change the narrative from the monumental corruption scandals it is associated with.
Venky Vembu, Sep 19, 2012
or Trinamool Congress MP Derek OBrien, his party leader Mamata Banerjees announcement of withdrawal of support to the UPA government in the event that it does not roll back the reform proposals it unveiled on Friday gave occasion to gloat. What is it some of you folk here were saying about only bark, no bite? he taunted.
the sand rightaway. But Mamata Banerjee has surprised everyone, including her own party MPs, by wielding her brahmastra of withdrawal of support. After all, what use is a weapon in your armoury if you can never deploy it? Yet, on the face of it, Mamata Banerjee has still given the Congress a chance to work things out. Shed be happy to continue to support the government if the diesel price hike were rolled back partially, the subsidised LPG cylinder quota were raised marginally - and the proposal for FDI in multi-brand retail were withdrawn. Despite the Congress readiness to go down fighting , and Finance Minister P Chidambarams resolve to press ahead with even more reforms, the first two of Mamata Banerjees conditions are entirely within the threshold of acceptability for the Congress. After all, every such proposal has room for political haggling built into it. The real deal-breaker could prove to be Mamatas ultimatum in respect of FDI in retail, largely because a rollback on that would amount to serious loss of face for an already discredited Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and for Chidambaram. Although even the Congress has more than its fair share of critics of the FDI in retail proposal (which means that the partys commitment to it is less than complete), Manmohan Singh has in some ways staked his political credibility on it. A rollback of that proposal, perhaps under pressure from Sonia Gandhi (whom Mamata Banerjee has directly addressed) would inflict even
He was evidently responding to those who felt that Mamata Didis frequent dares to the government were motivated purely by bluster and that when push came to shove she would pack up her tents and retreat in ignominy,as she had done at the time of the Presidential elections. That was also the Congress calculation: that Mamata Banerjee needed to be in the UPA far more than the UPA needed her party in it. And that since the Congress had alternative insurance policies likely support from the Samajwadi Party and the BSP Mamata Banerjees own political instincts would tell her to live to fight another day, rather than drawing a line in
more humiliation on Singh, and confirm his complete political emasculation. And although the man has in the past exhibited an extraordinary ability to swallow his pride and abandon his principles such as they are this would be the crowning ignominy. Of course, Mamata Banerjees dare also provides the Congress with a chance to change the narrative and the campaign theme for the next elections, which now appear will come about much sooner than in 2014. Thats because the issue on which Mamata Banerjee withdraw her partys support had nothing to do with the monumental scandals that were perpetrated under the UPA2 government, including most recently, the coal block allocation scandal. By opting instead to play her trump card of withdrawal of support over the issue of economic reforms or what passes for them Mamata Banerjee is inadvertently giving the Congress a chance to change the narrative away from the corruption scandals. In that event, its entirely plausible that the Congress will see merit in accepting Mamata Banerjees dare and refuse resolutely to roll back these reform efforts knowing that it can win over the support of either the Samajwadi Party or the Bahujan Samaj Party. These parties are, of course, just as vehemently opposed to such neo-liberal economic reforms and their natural political inclinations are towards mindless socialism. But as the prelude to the 2008 vote that the UPA-1 won (following the withdrawal of support by the Left parties over the Indo-US civilian nuclear agreement) revealed, political support can be rustled up in the short term with adequate moneybags. As contemporaneous accounts from 2008 revealed, that vote was won solely on the strength of bribes paid to MPs. A WikiLeaks document, citing US Embassy officials who interacted with key Congress players who were arranging for these bribes to be paid, recalls the scandalous details. It quotes Nachiketa Kapur, a political aide of Congress leader Satish Sharma, as telling a US Embassy official ahead of the vote that
Ajit Singhs party had been paid Rs 10 crore (about $2.5 million) for each of their four MPs to support the government. Kapur mentioned that money was not an issue at all, but the crucial thing was to ensure that those who took the money would vote for the government. The cable further said: Kapur showed the Embassy employee two chests containing cash and said that around Rs 50-60 crore (about $25 million) was lying around the house for use as pay-offs. (Read the cable here.) A repeat of that 2008 cash-for-votes scandal looks very likely today. And the Congress will perhaps calculate that if it can keep the gravy train rolling for a few more months, by playing on the aversion to early elections among some of the key political players, it can in the immortal words of Sushil Kumar Shinde bank on the short memory of the public to forget the Coalgate scandal. There is one hitch to that scenario, though. Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav has made clear he himself has Prime Ministerial aspirations. Mamata Banerjees withdrawal of support has the potential to trigger a realignment of political forces in a way that facilitates a Third Front or a Federal Front (of strong non-Congress, non-BJP parties in power in the States, like the Trinamool Congress, the Samajwadi Party, the Janata Dal (United) and perhaps even the BJD) to emerge. Its just a matter of time before the Samajwadi Party too pulls the plug on the UPA government. The Congress perhaps reasons that even the cowardly life of dying a thousand deaths each day will be worth it if it can change the storyline for the next election. But its bad karma of the past eight years cannot easily be washed away. It may delay its day of reckoning, but it will inevitably meet its comeuppance. The bigger tragedy is that the country as whole will pay a heavy price for every single day that this lameduck government stays on in power, and for the economic excesses it will inflict from now until election time.
Dear Mr PM, just post a message
on Didis Facebook wall

Telephone calls are oh-so-20th century. Manmohan Singh should get a little more savvy about using the right communication channels to get through to the mercurial Didi.
FP Staff, Sep 19, 2012
s if the wholesale collapse of communication between the Congress and the Trinamool Congress wasnt bad enough, tangled telephone lines between New Delhi and Kolkata appear to be complicating the plot. Finance Minister P Chidambaram claims that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh tried to speak to Paschim Banga Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee on the phone to explain to her why his government had had to raise diesel price and impose a cap on subsidised LPG cylinders and
allow FDI in multi-brand retail. But Mamata Banerjee had not returned the Prime Ministers phone call, Chidambaram claimed, managing to momentarily put away his characteristic sneer, and look half-ways forlorn. Congress spokesperson Janardhan Dwivedi further claims that it isnt just Manmohan Singh who is reaching out to Mamata Didi. Evidently, even Sonia Gandhi had wanted to speak to her, and had sent out a message through Trinamool
Congress leader Mukul Roy, but had not received a response. But Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress party leaders claim that this is a misrepresentation of the truth. Mamata alleges that Congress leaders are deliberately spreading rumours to discredit her, and that Manmohan Singh had never tried to contact her. Mamata Banerjee, on the other hand, claims that in fact she had sent Sonia Gandhi an SMS four days ago when the reform measures were announced to say that they were unacceptable to her party, but that Sonia Gandhi had not responded. In fact, at the meeting of the Trinamool Congrss Parliamentary Party on Tuesday, which decided to withdraw support to the UPA government, Mamata Banerjee even showed her party colleagues her SMS to Sonia Gandhi to convey that she had waited long enough for the government to respond. Affairs of the state cannot be held forever in abeyance just because of what is evidently an epidemic of poor connectivity between New Delhi and Kolkata. And with the governments fate hanging in the balance, perhaps Prime Minister Manmohan Singh should get a little more savvy about using the right communication channels to get through to the mercurial Didi. Telephone calls are oh-so-20th century. Get with it, Manmohanji, in the way that our Didi has done. Everyone and his uncle knows that Mamata
Banerjees preferred platform of communication is Facebook. Shes forever posting messages on her Facebook, page, and receiving feedback therefrom. Even on Wednesday, she used her Facebook page to reach out directly to the people, claiming that news channels were playing mischief on behalf of the Congress. A section of negligible channels is spreading misinformation and disinformation at the behest of certain vested interests, she said. If I have something new to say, then I will let you know directly. I will reiterate that we have taken a decision, which is of the people, for the people and by the people and also pro-people. We stand by it, Banerjee said in her latest post on Facebook. So, heres a tip for Manmohan Singh: Get on Facebook, and post a message on Didis wall of democracy. Tell her you want to speak to her or go even further. Write her an open letter conveying your side of the case for the reforms youve unleashed, but which she resists. That way, at least there will be a public record of your trying to reach out to her. And she cant accuse you of lying. And who knows this could be the start of a glorious new relationship.
TMC remains defiant, say no compromise with UPA

TMC Minister Mukul Roy has said that the party will stick to its decision to withdraw support to the UPA government.
FP Staff, Sep 19, 2012 MC Minister Mukul Roy has said that the party will stick to its decision to withdraw support to the UPA government. He also denied receiving a message from the Congress leadership to deliver to Mamata Banerjee. I have not received any message from anyone regarding anything, he said.
Roy stated that the Congress would do well to remember that they were in a coaltion and were not a majority government. Roy added that he had no reactions to Congress meeting. The party has taken a decision and that has been explained to people by Mamata Banerjee, he said. However he said that they would stick to their decision to also oppose FDI in retail. Mukul Roys comments come on the back of similar statements by TMC Rajya Sabha MP Kunal Ghosh. Ghosh used his Twitter account to slam the government, calling on the Prime Minister to step down before accepting the resignations of the TMC Ministers, and seek a fresh mandate from the people. In a series of tweets the Rajya Sabha MP also slammed the Congress party, saying it would do well to remember that this was not their private government, adding that the government had no moral right to continue with its antipeople policies.
We will never go beyond our election manifesto. If we compromise on it we will be cheating the people. TMC is of the people, by the people and for the people, he added.
What makes Didi angry?
Mamatas rage: How Congress
flunked the EQ test

There is more to Mamata Banerjees exit from UPA than just the FDI in retail and diesel price hike. The Congress has failed to read her correctly and treat her right.
R Jagannathan, Sep 19, 2012
iguring out the enigma that is Mamata Banerjee is going to be the next governments headache, assuming they have a need for her support. Anyone who watched her sense of righteous anger at yesterdays press conference, where she announced her partys decision to withdraw support to the UPA, cannot but suspect that there is more than just an opposition to reforms that underlies her outburst. While it is widely believed that the Congress treats its allies as appendages and not equals, in the case of Mamata Banerjee this kind of attitude can be fatal. Reading Mamata Banerjee needs emotional intelligence (EQ), but the Congress fared poorly on this front. A trained psychoanalyst may be able to decode her state of mind better, but an amateur reading of her statements both in the events leading up to the current divorce with the UPA and the earlier near-breakup over the candidacy of Pranab Mukherjee for President suggests that what she wants more than anything else is formal respect and recognition of her achievements in Bengal. And this achievement is the dethroning of the Left Front after nearly 33 years in power. Nobody but Mamata could have accomplished that, but everybody thinks thats all over and Mamata must look ahead. Underlying her statements are a deep sense of betrayal by the Congress, including Sonia Gandhi, on this score. For example, she said yesterday: I had spoken to Sonia Gandhi four days ago and conveyed (to
her) that it would be difficult for us to support the latest decisions of the government. Though she tried not to burn her bridges with Sonia, the statement can be translated to mean: Sonia has not given me the respect due for being UPAs largest ally and also to me personally.
Mamata went on: I know Congress. It will ditch Mamata and go to (Bahujan Samaj Party chief) Mayawati, it will ditch Mayawati and go to Mulayam (Singh Yadav) and then it will ditch Mulayam and go to (JD-U leader) Nitish Kumar, The Economic Times quoted her as saying. Once again, this is a tell-tale statement laden with a deep sense of betrayal. She is saying the Congress is repeatedly betraying her and not giving due attention to her political needs. She believes that she deserves special treatment for Bengal, especially after the Lefts scorched earth policies left the state bankrupt. But the Congress is busy pandering to UP and other favoured states, not Bengal. Hidden in the above statement is also Mulayam
Singhs own betrayal of her, when he first signed up with Mamata to support the candidacy of APJ Abdul Kalam, and then fell for a Congress blandishment and switched sides to Pranab Mukherjee. Clearly, Mamata saw this as a double betrayal by Sonia and Mulayam. This could be one reason why this time she did not bother to coordinate her withdrawal of support with Mulayam Singh. She did not want to be betrayed again. With Pranab Mukherjee, too, her initial reluctance to support his candidature related to his assumption that as the senior politician from Bengal, he was the elder brother. But in Mamatas mind, as Firstpost noted before, she has outgrown her kid sister status when she proved to be the giant killer who brought the Left down. Mukherjee failed to see that she now needed to be treated as an equal and, in fact, his political senior. Mukherjee, whatever his capabilities, was a political lightweight in Bengal. Despite his seniority, it was only in 2004 that he won his first Lok Sabha seat. Mamata entered parliament as a giant-killer in 1984, when she defeated Somnath Chatterjee of the CPI(M), sending shock waves through the Left. She was clearly pained by Mukherjees failure to seek her support formally for the presidency last June. She said the decision to back him was painful and tough, and media reports quoted her as saying: We have decided to support Pranab Mukherjee keeping in mind the alliance we have with the Congress. In the interest of the people, democracy we have decided to vote for him. We have not taken this decision from the core of our heart. We have no other option. She let her hurt hang out and spoke about Mukherjees inability to acknowledge her rising stature indirectly. I dont know what happened but we have not spoken to each other for the
last eight months. The prime minister calls me up frequently. We do have conversations. I do have contacts with Sonia Gandhi. But I didnt have any conversations with Pranabda. I dont know why. Hidden in this statement is this feeling: Look, others are treating me like an adult. But not Pranabda. She also said: In 2009, we were the first party to hand over the letter of support to Pranab Mukherjee. I believe it helped him gain in stature, and also helped build his bright future. She also made the point that Pranab never paid her a visit at Kolkatas Writers Buildings. Once again, this is the point. She is saying, I am equally entitled to respect and recognition. Look at what I have achieved in Bengal. I am CM. But you refuse to recognise my growth in stature. What all this suggests is that handling Mamata needs special care. In the hurly-burly of politics, these things may not seem to matter, since everyone is talking votebanks and alliances of convenience. In the case of the Congress-Trinamool rupture, the factor that could have pushed Mamata over the edge may not only be policy differences over diesel or FDI (these could have been haggled over), but the Congress inability to stop being big brother with her. If Sonia had descended from her pedestal to woo Mamata, who knows what the result would have been? Moreover, it is clear that it is Sonias respect she needs more than Manmohans. So getting the PM to talk to her may not help. The key to Mamata may be in how she is handled.
Abhimaan, thy name is Mamata

Mamata Banerjees about-turn on Pranab for president was a display of soap-opera worthy abhimaan. Abhimaan might be the staple of serials, but can she make it a moral force in politics?
bhimaan must be a peculiarly Indian concept for its hard to find a word in English for it. In Bengali, abhimaan is not just about ego or pride. It is thin-skinned and easily offended. It comes with a pout and pique, suffused with the emotional blackmail of self-sacrifice and eternal victimhood. It is, in short, Mamata Banerjee. Mamatas abrupt U-turn on Pranab Mukherjee has left political pundits scratching their heads. A columnist in the Bengali newspaper Bartaman calls it a final hour masterstroke. She nipped the growing bonhomie between Prakash Karats CPM and the Congress in the bud. CPM leaders are practically in tears, says another article in the same newspaper. Mamata has piled ashes onto the CPMs plate of rice. But The Telegraph ranked Didi at the top of its list of Losers lost face but made the best of out of the worst situ-
Sandip Roy, Jul 18, 2012 ation. After the initial presidential poll phase when she emerged as the most active player, her calculations went awry at every step. (The top winner, incidentally, was Manmohan Singh, not Pranab-da. The PM, writes The Telegraph, with one stone got Mukherjee out of the way and tamed Mamata at least for the time being.) Winner or loser? Thats just more grist for armchair political analysts to ruminate over in endless talk shows. What Mamata clearly showed in that press conference about her painful decision was the politics of abhimaan. Even Shubha Dutta who praised her move as a master stroke in Bartaman called it a display of bookbhara abhimaan (heart brimming with abhimaan). Mamata made a virtue of her empty hands, trying to turn her abhimaan into a moral force
in a sea of dirty politics. I have told the Prime Minister that we do not want anything in return. Only the Trinamool Congress can act in this selfless manner. However The Statesman reported that it was not quite that selfless. Mamata finally got spooked when she learned that the PM might take away railway portfolio from the TMC. She brought up old favours, even as she said forget the old past. She was the one who had brought Pranab back to the Congress after he had left it to float his own party. She looked after him while he stayed at Nizam Palace in Calcutta. That same Pranab-da, she complained, had not talked to her in the last eight months. I am in touch with the Prime Minister and Soniaji but not with him. I dont know why He had not even come for a cup of tea with her at Writers after she became the chief minister, she said sadly. Then in a Bengali serial-worthy performance she stuck the knife in. With love. Perhaps he could not find the time. Maybe after becoming President he will. Now that was a masterstroke. Not every politician can stab another with a teacup and a wan smile. Its been a criticism of Mamata that even in power, she functions as if she is in the opposition, that she is too addicted to her street fighting ways to actually govern. But what the Pranab-affair showed was that what she is really addicted to is her finely-honed and omnipresent sense of victimhood. Jayalalithaa splashes her silks and Mayawati builds her statues, but Mamata plays the politics of the renunciate even as she sits in the CMs chair. A political observer once said she costumes herself as a widow but who is she widowed from? But Mamata understands the power of that image in a state where so many homes still have a framed picture of the original lady in white Ma Sarada, Ramakrishnas spiritual counterpart and the epitome of self-sacrifice. Our movies and serials have gotten us used to the mother, usually widowed, who controls the household through the nobility of her victimhood and her
sacrifice. That mother wants nothing for herself, only the good of her usually selfish and ungrateful children. Her ultimate weapon is the silent treatment. She is the embodiment of suffering, who nevertheless puts the family first. Mamata made it clear that though it pained her, that though Pranab-da had snubbed her, she was putting the duties of democracy, the responsibilities of a coalition partner and the aspirations of Bengali pride, ahead of her personal feelings. Jilted by Mulayam, snubbed by Pranab, humiliated by Karat, she appeared before her people as the dutiful Didi. But politics is not a Bengali soap opera where ultimately the warring sons unite around the mother and the fantasy of the happy joint family is restored. Mamata has reduced herself to irrelevance in national politics, at least in the context of the two polls writes Ashis Chakrabarti because like many other vainglorious Bengali politicians, adored and lionized on home turf she did not understand the limits of brinkmanship and the realities of national politics where a Mulayam could bring so much more to the bargaining table, in terms of hard numbers, than she ever could. As a woman in politics, she is even more vulnerable to double standards. Her volte face is dismissed as a sign of weakness and naivete while Mulayams overnight about-turn is regarded as proof of his political wiliness. On the plus side for her, her U-turns have guaranteed her front page coverage in the media across the nation. If she had been just a good ally from the beginning and thrown in her support for Pranab-da, she would never have made this much news. It is tempting for Manmohan Singh to think that hes finally shown his troublesome ally the limits of her tantrums. But Mamata is not one to eat humble pie for very long. Abhimaan has a long fuse and can smoulder for any length of time.Others might think she has become the laughing stock of the nation but her press conference made it clear that even though she brought much of this entire drama upon herself she is painting herself as the victim. Mamata hopes that she will win by losing.
The madness of Queen Mamata

In public imagination, Didi increasingly resembles Alice in Wonderlands irrational Red Queen, yelling off with his head at the slightest pretext. But is there a method to her madness?
Sandip Roy, Mar 20, 2012
ow, I give you fair warning, shouted the Queen, stamping on the ground as she spoke; either you or your head must be off, and that in about half no time! Take your choice! Alices Adventures in Wonderland. What I am saying is there should be some respect.., said Mamata Banerjee, striking an uncharacteristically subdued note on her damage control tour of Delhis television studios. But is it too little, too late? In popular imagination Mamata is looking more
like Alice in Wonderlands Red Queen these days arbitrary, hot-tempered and ready to fly off the handle at the drop of a hat. West Bengals urban middle class, a hesitant convert to the Mamata mantra, seems exasperated with that woman. Nil, one half of the Dev r Nil designer duo, circulated an open letter to her via Facebook. As an ardent supporter of change I was vocally campaigning for you during the elections on facebook, addas or on SMS Against all the catcalls from people for supporting you I
believed in you as a leader and I still do to a certain extent. Then he launches into a laundry list of the madness of Mamata: the Rabindrasangeet-blaring traffic signals, the cheap-looking Trident street lights, the blue-wash of the city, laffaire Trivedi. The list of BUTS are becoming longer and its not even 10 months of your administration. I hope you realize that the public who got you into power is seething with in disgust and anger, they are all now asking you Why?? Indeed, why this Kolaveri? Confessions of a paranoid mind When Mamata Banerjee stormed into power the hope was that she would not be straitjacketed by ideology (after all she had been quite promiscuous in her political alliances) but be a more commonsensical leader, guided by ruthless pragmatism. Mamatas lack of discretion has let down a lot of our expectations, says Rony Patra, a Masters student at Presidency University in Kolkata. What is sad to note is that she has become just like Buddhadev (Bhattacharya). She started out by listening to the right people but has slowly become surrounded by yes-men. Unlike other imperious leaders, Mamata is very accessible, spurning Z-level security, walking on padayatras rather than riding a jeep. But paranoia and imperiousness, my way or the highway, are very much part of her public image. She is seen as a woman who inspires fear more than respect, even among members of her own coterie. Her junior minister Sultan Ahmed was offered an airlift back to Delhi from the Akhilesh Yadav inauguration by the Congress Pawan Bansal. But when it was time to leave, Ahmed was nowhere to be found. I was offered a ride by Bansal, Ahmed told The Telegraph. But I avoided. Still stinging from the Trivedi betrayal, he didnt want Didi to even think for a moment that he was hobnobbing with the frenemy. Mamata has proven to be as shrill in power as
she was in opposition, dismissing rape cases as fabricated, muttering about conspiracies around every corner, calling for her own ministers head. She sees every reversal, anything negative as a conspiracy, says Monobina Gupta, author of Didi: A Political Biography. But the conspiracy theories, which might now sound absurd, were not always so absurd. Gupta says there is a context to her paranoia. Not just the CPM, but the entire West Bengal Congress unit was once against her. Mamata fought them all. And its clear the entire Dineshdrama played out with the blessings of the PM and the Finance Minister while she was in the dark. Just because youre paranoid, it doesnt mean they arent out to get you. Didirailed The one word headline splashed across The Telegraph the day after Dinesh Trivedis railways budget bomb put it succinctly: DIDIRAILED. For all her reputation for paranoia, Mamata was sold out by her own minister in full view of the nation. In fact, in the Curious Case of the Rebellious Railways Minister, Mamata, irrational and trigger-happy as she can be, was more sinned against than sinning. Dinesh Trivedi might have put together a budget that was good for the railways but it ran against everything his party and his party boss stood for. Trivedi knew it. That was why he okayed the budget with the Finance Minister but blindsided his own party chief. It was not a budget Mamata wanted around her neck when she went into panchayat polls with the CPM baying for her blood. Mamata does not shy away from a fight. But this was one fight she could have lived without. The debacle that ensued, however, showed one thing Mamatas strong arm tactics with her own allies in the government, her unceasing high-pitched tantrums have left her very little wiggle room to back out of sticky situations like this. She has become the Mistress of No, the rail budget seen as just the latest in a parade of grenades she has tossed in the governments path. Her policy is to put pressure constantly on the
central government, says Subrata Hore, associate professor of political science in Kolkata. She wants the Congress to be constantly on tenterhooks. But its only stick and no carrots. Mamata has now shown Delhi whos boss. She just off-handedly dismissed the Congress request for support for one measly Rajya Sabha berth from Bengal. But can she bring home the bacon? This is now Mamata Banerjees great predicament. She got her way with the railway minister but the Centre has not given her what she really wants debt relief. Without that all her dream projects from Jangal Mahal to Gorkhaland are stymied.
might chafe at her midnight curfew on the citys night clubs (her solution to the rape), but Mamata does not really care. She still lives above the slums in the by lanes of Kalighat, overlooking the fetid Adi Ganga nullah and the red-bricked Alipore Jail. Hum common people rahega, rahtey jaaonga, she told Rajdeep Sardesai. We are not from the golden spoon family. Thats why they hate us. Mamata Banerjees support base has never been the wishy-washy middle class. They want middle class things good markets, no load shedding, no crime, says Hore. The middle class wants her to react rationally. The crisis of the poor is different. She reacts emotionally to them. She will hug a poor person to her. She will talk in their language. And it is genuine. The Bengali daily Ananda Bazar Patrika recently carried a story about a fisherman in Midnapore who was a staunch CPM activist. Mamata showed up in his village and saw the land seizure notices from the local bank. She pulled them down with her own hand. The man is now her Number One fan. That is her constituency, says V Ramaswamy, longtime grassroots organiser and member of the Calcutta Research Group. She has not unsettled her constituency. In fact, what she has done in West Bengal is out-Lefted the Left, using their language, co-opting their issues. She is a termite out to destroy the CPM by boring them hollow, says Ramaswamy. From her grassroots point of view, what she has done is more than any of the Leftist political parties have ever done. The leftist point of view has never been as centre stage as it is now. Aami Duronto West Bengal has a long history of maverick Congress leaders who revolted against the High Command from Chittaranjan Das and his Swaraj Party to Subhas Bose and even Pranab Mukherjee with his short lived Rashtriya Congress. But Mamata is a class apart. Mamatas achievement is that in twelve years she has made Congress the junior partner. She calls the shots, says Bhaumik. It is a victory
The Bengali daily Bartaman pointed out in an editorial that Mamata had threatened dire consequences if the budget did not include any special packages for Bengal. Well, it did not and her party, its hands full with Dinesh Trivedi, meekly described the budget as tolerable. There was certainly not as much rain, as there was thunder, said Bartaman. Her success also shows the limits of regionalism, says Subir Bhaumik, the editor of Seven Sisters Post in Guwahati, and a long time Bengal politics watcher. At the end of the day if you dont have the centre with you, you are screwed. The aluminium spoon family Yet those who think that Bengals stormy petrel has flown too close to the sun underestimate her. She has a huge mandate and she knows that for five years she is absolutely safe, says Monobina Gupta. The party goers in Kolkata
for Bengali regionalism. Even Subhas Bose could not do it. But is it good for the country? She does not have to bother about the nation, says Ramaswamy. She has to bother about her class. She is not a pretender. She is lumpen and she is subaltern. Looking at the larger picture, Hore says, The minus is there will be more conflict among the regional parties all trying to get more help from a weak centre. The plus is they may actually look after their states better. The states grievances against the centre are not new and they go beyond the economic says The Telegraph. Many of the states are victims of the Centres arbitrariness and its propensity to concentrate on Delhi. From museums to Commonwealth Games tto the regional headquarters of public institutions all are in Delhi Moreover, welfare schemes spawned in Delhi have their financial burdens passed on to the states: Delhis dreams are subsidized by the states exchequers. Now the national parties are losing their sheen.
The regional parties have more of the peoples trust. Its too early to tell whether that will be for better or for worse. But one thing is clear regionalisation is here to stay for the near future. As is Mamata. Despite Dinesh Trivedis moment in the sun and dissident Trinamool MP Kabir Sumans open letter criticising the musclemen running amok in the party Mamata faces no real danger of revolt from within. Mamatas greatest enemy is quite literally within, writes The Statesmans editor Ravindra Kumar. When there is need to fence, she swings a club; when a scalpel is needed, she reaches for the sledgehammer. A political observer told me this about her, says Bhaumik. Eto boro netri, thaamtey paarbey to? Such a big leader. But does she know when to stop? Somewhere over the summer, as she dodges questions about mid-term polls and UPA snubs, Mamata Banerjee will have to answer that question. That will determine if Bengals chief minister is a Duranto Express or a runaway train.
Mamata Banerjee, the domestic (abuse) Goddess

Mamata delivered her fatal blow against the Lokpal Bill. But the UPA is still standing steadfastly by its woman like a battered spouse who has nowhere else to go.
Sandip Roy, Mar 20, 2012
When Mamata Banerjee delivered the final fatal blow to the governments Lokpal bill, there was no avoiding the truth: Didi is indeed the Wicked Witch of the East. The truth was clear to everyone, except perhaps her hapless long-suffering partner the Congress. The party is still steadfastly standing by its woman like a battered spouse who has nowhere to go. Oh how do I humiliate thee? Let me count the ways.
ith friends like these who needs enemies?
This time around Mamata might claim she is doing it to uphold the states rights but the pattern is clear. The Congress-TMC marriage looks increasingly like a textbook case for an abusive relationship, with Didi showing all the signs of an abusive spouse: blames others for actions, needs to be in control, easily upset or angered, unrealistic expectations of the relationship, history of mood swings. Check check check. According to Outlook magazine, Manmohan Singh spent the year reading books like An Economists Miscellany by Kaushik Basu and Managed Chaos by Prem
Shankar Jha this year. He might have been better off browsing those domestic abuse websites and taking those quick online quizzes 10 signs to know if you are in an abusive relationship. Take, for instance, this useful nugget from HealthCentral.com. An emotional abuser goes through life feeling entitled to be treated like royalty, and wants you to be a willing servant. He or she expects you to do everything and will not help at all. Hmm why does that sound familiar? Or how about this helpful warning sign from the website Surviving Abuse? Depressing: If your partner does something that humiliates, diminishes, and embarrasses you, your case for abusive relationship becomes strong. Such acts could happen in public places or in the privacy of your home. That sounds just like the kind of person who would unilaterally announce the Trinamool Congress election candidate list leaving her partner to pick up the scraps. Or how about that day in September when she left the PM stranded by pulling out at the last minute from his high-profile meeting with Bangladeshs Sheikh Hasina, the first time Dhaka has had an India-friendly government in years. Manmohan Singh thought the water talks with Bangladesh had Didis blessings but she proved him royally wrong. If Mamata had any remorse about this foreign policy embarrassment she didnt show it. By November she was threatening to topple the government over a petrol price hike. She had to climb down on that one but still managed to make it sound like she was calling the shots. We dont want to blackmail the UPA government. We dont want to come out if it takes a correct decision, Banerjee said.
Right, I dont want to hit you. You made me do it. Above all, an abuser always has to show who is boss in the relationship. In describing why the BJP was happy to make the Lokayukta amendment Mamatas baby, her hometown newspaper The Telegraph, perhaps inadvertently, lapsed into language that could have been pulled from any of these surviving abuse websites. As long as Mamata Banerjee stuck to her guns, brought the Congress-led UPA down on its knees by forcing it to acknowledge the supremacy of the states over the Centre and got the Lokayukta amendment incorporated. Whats worse is unlike a garden variety abuser who wants to control his partners finances and spending, this one has no money of her own and is quite happy to spend whatever she can bully out of the victim. Its a little bit like that drunk husband who comes home and gives his hard working wife a black eye and then goes carousing with her money. As the Hindustan Times reports: After forcing the suspension of the FDI in retail policy and the pension bill, the partial opposition to the Lokpal bill was the third jolt Banerjee has delivered to the UPA even though her government received a whopping Rs 8,750-crore special package early this month. As 2011 ends, and the Congress licks its wounds, many of them self-inflicted, Manmohan Singh is probably working on his 2012 reading list. Might we suggest this handy guide from Oprahs Dr. Phil: An Exit Action Plan: Guidelines for Leaving an Abusive Relationship But first of all, one has to get to the first step: Admit to being in one.
Will the UPA survive?
in deeper crisis
The Trinamool chiefs decision brings the possibility of a mid-term election closer than ever.
Akshaya Mishra, Sep 18, 2012
Mamata bombshell leaves UPA -2
amata Banerjee dropped the bombshell finally. And for a change she was not being unpredictable. Her decision to withdraw support to UPA II was not entirely unanticipated given the maximalist position she had taken in her opposition to all kinds of economic reforms. When Prime Minister Manmohan Singh insisted the other day that if the government had to go down, it should go down fighting, the
stage was set for a direct confrontation. It was a conflict between two maximalist positions and finding the middle ground was a difficult proposition. Mamatas decision brings the possibility of a mid-term election closer than ever. The UPA is reduced to a minority government without the support of 19 Trinamool MPs. It will now have to depend on the support of either the Samajwadi Party or the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)
for survival. Both parties, propping up the UPA from outside at different times, would extract their pound of flesh from the government and could throw up the similar opposition on the issue of economic reforms as the Trinamool Congress. Whether it the SP or the BSP, its a definite loselose situation for the UPA in general and the Congress in particular. Going by its recent posturing, the SP is not averse to an early election and it wont hesitate to pull the rug from under the UPA anytime it feels convenient. In such a situation, the government could still survive but it wont have the legitimacy to carry out reforms. And without big ticket reform measures, it would have little to show for its more than three years in power. In fact, when the government announced a flurry of decisions recently, including a sharp hike in diesel price, a cap on use of subsidised LPG cylinders and aviation reforms, it was meant to distract public attention from the huge negative publicity generated by the coalgate and other scandals. The government could not have been unaware that it was taking the huge risk of alienating allies such as the Trinamool Congress. It was a gamble and it seems to have backfired. Mamatas move on Tuesday evening ensures that the countdown to the fall of the government has begun. But is it possible for the government to salvage
the situation? Mamata has given it a 72-hour deadline to withdraw all unpopular decisions. She might still support the government if it accepts her demand. However, given the tough, unequivocal stance taken by the prime minister, Finance Minister P Chidambaram and other senior Congress leaders on reforms, it is unlikely that it would back out. The embarrassment would be just too heavy for the party to bear. It might take AICCs president Sonia Gandhis direct intervention to find a political solution to the impasse. The statements from Congress leaders this evening indicate that the party is still hopeful of some kind of a settlement where neither side end up looking bad. But after making a public farce of their differences over reforms and taking a irreversible positions both seem to have burnt the bridges. Even if the parties manage to stay together for now, it would be a short-term marriage of incompatible allies. For all practical purposes, the days of UPA II look numbered. Ironically, it wont be corruption that would sink the government, it would be economic reforms. The rickety coalition would still have managed to plod along had the issue been corruption only Mamatas party have been more or less silent about the scandals involving the government so far. That gives the government the halo of martyrdom, a pathetic one, if one might add.
Post-Mamata, Mulayam to bail out UPA
for secularisms sake

The Samajwadi Party is positioning itself to bail out the Manmohan Singh government in order to check the BJPs - and Narendra Modis - ascendance.
Venky Vembu, Sep 20, 2012
f it walks like a lameduck and quacks like a lameduck, its only because the UPA government, which will be reduced to a minority come Friday, is well and truly a lameduck.
In an interview to The Times of India (here), Samajwadi Party leader Ramgopal Yadav (who is Mulayam Singhs brother) noted that although the Congress was guilty of a number of governance failures, the Samajwadi Party would perhaps have to step up and prop it up in the interest of stopping the BJP. This government would have fallen long ago. Many parties share our view on it (corruption, price rise and unilateralism in alliance). But we cannot forget the Gujarat riots and how the state sponsored them. We have seen that face of the BJP. So, we have to think twice before taking a step lest it helps such forces in coming to power, Yadav told The Times of India.
In his estimation, the need to check the BJPs advance was all the more greater today, now But given the perverse logic of political calculathat Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi was tions in India, even the lameduck Manmohan being actively projected by a cross-section of the Singh government is not without crutches, using BJP and its affiliated organisations as a prime which it can hobble around for a little longer. ministerial candidate. The Samajwadi Party, one of the biggest moving parts in the political kaleidoscope right now, is dropping loud hints that for all its blustery rhetoric about the anti-people policies of the UPA government to protest which it will participate in the Bharat Bandh on Thursday it could yet bail out the Manmohan Singh government. And why would it do so? Because, according to a senior Samajwadi Party leader, it was motivated by the secular compulsion to stop the communal BJP from filling up the political vacuum that would be created by the fall of the UPA government. Other media accounts, quoting rather more anonymous Samajwadi Party sources, draw out much the same scenario: that while the party wanted to distance itself from a discredited UPA and perhaps prepare for early elections, it was motivated by a larger consideration of how such a move would play with Muslim voters in Uttar Pradesh. We have to factor in certain circumstances, primarily the Gujarat polls (due this NovemberDecember), The Telegraph quoted a Samajwadi Party source as saying. In his reckoning, if the UPA government fell, and if the Samajwadi Party was seen to have not bailed out the Congress
which in turn catalysed a BJP resurgence, Muslim voters in Uttar Pradesh would desert the Samajwadi Party. Particularly in the context of the recent riots in Ghaziabad (following the alleged desecration of the Koran), in which six rioting Muslims were killed in police firing, the Samajwadi Party is wary of losing Muslim support in its entirety. But such specious reasoning notwithstanding, the Samajwadi Partys alibi for its stated intention to bail out the Manmohan Singh government merely reflects the debasement of political posturing in India, where anything including monumental corruption, such as the UPA government has overseen in the past three years can be defended in the name of upholding secularism as defined by opportunistic invocations of that slogan. The fact that Yadav framed his partys likely intentions in the context of the upcoming Gujarat election and the need to checkmate Modis ascendance is illustrative. As Firstpost has noted earlier, Secularism has been reduced to a simple test that anybody can pass. Are you for Modi or against him? You can be the most bigoted or corrupt of Indians you can beat your wife, kill your daughter for marrying outside the gotra or caste, loot crores from the public treasury, abuse Dalits and bash them up but if you
are against Modi, you are a Jolly Good Fellow. Yet, such cynical attempts to play the trump card of secularism and use it as an alibi to defend corruption may be close to their sell-by date. Corruption, particularly big-ticket corruption, is way and above the topmost matter of concern for voters irrespective of their religious affiliation. In that sense, corruption is today the one truly secular political issue. The Congress is today attempting to camouflage its corruption by painting itself as a reformist party after criminal inaction on pressing policy issues that effectively served to run the economy to the ground. The Samajwadi Party, for its own momentary political compulsions, is similarly invoking the secularism bogey to cover up for its opportunistic support for the UPA whose government has been reduced to a minority. With crutches like these, the lameduck government may hop around a little longer and show feeble signs of life. But sooner or later, it will be carved up and served, come election time. And its far more likely that its secular ally, the Samajwadi Party, will be first in line to eat it up whole.
Sonias script went wrong in 2004

Sonia Gandhi appears to have miscalculated on what Mamata Banerjee would do to UPA. But she may have miscalculated even more on Manmohan Singh.
R Jagannathan, Sep 19, 2012
PM as Achilles Heel:
n the end, it was Mamata Banerjee who called Sonia Gandhis bluff, and not the other way round. Till late in the evening on Tuesday, Congress ministers were talking soft on the assumption that the Bengal Tigress would merely withdraw her ministers from the UPA government, but she went the whole hog and pulled out of the alliance.
How did Sonia Gandhi get her script wrong? To be sure, she has got it repeatedly wrong. In 2004, 2008, and, more recently, in the post-2G scam period of 2010-12. Like every your-beauty-and-my-brains argument for tying the knot, the Sonia-Manmohan equation was a Faustian bargain where the mix of Sonias political clout with Manmohans economic wizardry worked negatively. What UPA got was Sonias economic wizardry (bad economics) and Manmohans political clout (bad politics). But lets begin with looking ahead before looking back, now that Mamata has said her piece. The Congress partys current political compulsions are clear: it needs to make big giveaways in the 2013 budget (food security, health insurance, et al), and it is to finance this profligacy that Sonia has agreed to the ManmohanChidambaram bravado on reforms for the next six months. Sonias assumption was that Mamata would roar, but not chew up the UPA. But this is what has come to pass. Worse, by opening up all her political cards the references to the coal block scandal, FDI in retail, and the Muslim votebank Mamata has, in fact, made it impossible for even the Congress remaining backers Samajwadi Partys Mulayam Singh and Mayawatis BSP to be seen as propping up the Congress unequivocally. Mamatas gambit has effectively made every UPA ally wary of being too closely associated with the Congress follies from corruption scandals to the inflation scenario to the extent where even the DMK has begun distancing
Sure, there is still a small chance that Mamata could return, but by pitching her demands very high complete withdrawal of FDI in retail, rollback of diesel prices, etc - she has essentially told the Congress to take a walk. The behind-the-scenes Sonia-orchestrated effort to isolate Mamata has backfired. The Congress thought Mamata needed UPA more than it needed her, but she has neatly turned the tables. By withdrawing support, she is saying: I can do without you, but can you do without me? The countdown for the end of UPA-2 has begun (actually it began in 2010, with the 2G scam, but we didnt know it then). There is no certainty on how long the Sonia-Manmohan vaudeville act can be stretched.
itself from the Congress (the pot being wary of the kettle?). It will be backing the anti-reform bandh tomorrow (20 September). The DMK has stuck with the UPA primarily to save its own skin the 2G scam was all about DMKs A Raja and M Karunanidhis daughter Kanimozhi and the Marans capers in the telecom ministry but it now sees the Congress alliance as a potential loser in 2014. On the politically untouchability scale, after BJP it is now the Congress which has ascended the league. If the Congress fortunes are now tied to two jealous spouses, SP and BSP, not to speak of the half-abandoned DMK, it is anybodys guess what will happen next. Its future will depend on the political compulsions of these three parties. It is worth looking at what the script could be. It is well known that Mulayam Singh is more eager for early elections than Mayawati or Karunanidhi, primarily because he will gain and the latter could lose (or, at least, not gain). This leads one to conclude that if anyone will pull the plug first, it will be Mulayam Singh, and not Mayawati and Karunanidhi who may prefer to make demands but not push the Congress over the edge. But Mulayam alone cant bring down the government, unless he can rope the DMK into the act. The only issue on which both can unite is Mayawatis quota-in-promotions plan. Both SP and DMK, with their OBC vote banks, are opposed to it, and would instead want to extend the quota-in-promotions plan to include OBCs. But in doing so, Congress will have to face a dent in its own upper caste votes, and could hand them over on a platter to the BJP. Of course, it will be possible for the SP to try and pull the rug on economic issues of which there will be plenty, inflation and reforms being only two of them in a difficult domestic investment scenario. Mulayam Singhs best chance of doing that will come after the Gujarat and Himachal elections.
If Narendra Modi wins, Singh can pull the plug and say he will be the best man to stop the Hindutva icon from becoming PM. If Modi does not do as well, it will be a signal to the SP boss that the Congress will be rejuvenated. He will then have to invent a quick reason for the exit before the Congress gets stronger. Either way, the winter session of parliament after the Gujarat elections will be the best time for Mulayam Singh to move. But this wont happen unless DMK is also on board which is something Congress will do anything to prevent.
From this, we can conclude a few things tentatively. The Congress will be living a charmed life from now on. And it will need to survive at least till the next budget to get its aam aadmi political story right. But since reform is not going to be a vote-winner, it will not be able to do much to turn the tide of business negativism from now on. The stock market optimism may be short-lived. The Manmohan Singh-Chidambaram reforms act is thus likely to sink in the sands of UPA-2s declining popularity even though the government itself may survive on the basis of day-today political compromises with increasingly demanding allies. Governance will take a beating as UPA panders to every passing pressure group to stay in power. In retrospect, Sonia Gandhi may well wonder is she backed the wrong horse for PM in 2004 Manmohan Singh. His only strength was his loyalty, when his instincts were different from hers. It was widely reported in 2004 that she did not accept the job of PM because she had no lust for power. We now know this is not the case, for deCopyright 2012 Firstpost
spite installing Singh as PM, real power stayed with her. Nobody is convinced otherwise. She probably didnt accept the job since she didnt want to head a minority government and take the blame for its failures. Manmohan Singh was the perfect fall guy. Lets see with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight if the alternative scenario would have worked better for her. In this case, she would have become PM in 2004, and Singh would have been her high-profile reformist Finance Minister and Chidambaram her reformist Commerce and Industry Minister almost the same roles they played in Narasimha Raos government of 1991-96. We didnt know this in 2004, but the Indian economy was just about to hit the high notes and boom like never before. As presiding deity, Sonia would not have had to do anything more than what Singh and Chidambaram anyway managed to do in 2004-08. But she could have taken credit for the boom. She would have been a winner. In 2008, when the Lehman crisis struck, Sonia could have unleashed the goodies farm waivers, the economic stimulus, etc and claimed credit for these too. But, most important, given her welfarist leanings, it is highly unlikely she would have opted for the Indo-US nuclear deal. It was Manmohan Singh who pushed for it in the face of strident Left opposition. Sonia was more comfortable with the Left than the Trinamool Congress. In short, there would have been no withdrawal of Left support and the 2008 stimulus would have helped Sonia to induct Rahul into the party to oversee social sector spending, positioning him splendidly for the Prime Ministership. Once cannot also discount the possibility that the Congress may have done even better than its 206 seats in 2009 with Sonia in charge instead of Manmohan. By letting Manmohan appear to be the decisive leader of 2008 (in the nuke deal), she had to hand over the crown for political savvy to Singh, instead of claiming it for herself.
Moreover, the Trinamool got the benefit of the Lefts failure in West Bengal at the cost of the Congress. In a three-way fight, the Left would have retained a lot of its seats, and the Trinamool would have got much less. Post-2009, the UPA would still have had Left support and a more stable one at that. So lets repeat what could have been Sonias report card, if she had been PM instead of Manmohan in 2004. One, she could have taken credit for the 200408 boom. Two, she could have taken credit for the postLehman spending binge. Three, with the Left as partner, she would have had the aam aadmi tag anyway. Four, she would have avoided the nuclear deal, which has turned out to be a pyrrhic victory for Manmohan look at what is happening to nuclear power all over the world after Fukushima (Kudankulam, Jaitapur). In UPA-2, Manmohans reformist hankerings are again going to cost her her Left-of-centre image. Five, there would have been no perceptions of policy paralysis since her government would have been seen as essentially Leftist, and hence purposeful from that angle. She could have managed allies better. By letting Manmohan run the government, the government was seen as split between a Left heart and a Right brain a freak creature. Both the politics and the economics of the UPA were managed badly as a result. The other side of the coin would, however, remain. There is little doubt that a UPA-2 under Sonia or Rahul would have been equally unable to tackle the slowdown-inflation crisis because it simply has no sensible answers. But then, does a Sonia-Manmohan dichotomous alliance have better answers? Clearly, Sonias script went wrong as far back as 2004. Given her inclinations, she backed the wrong horse in 2004. Whatever her loyalties, Manmohan Singh has led her to a dead end.
The fate of the reforms
Why the next elections will be
a referendum on reforms
Too many forces are against economic reforms at the moment. Mamata Banerjee is only the reflection of a trend.
Akshaya Mishra, Sep 19, 2012
amata Banerjee has the option of disallowing FDI in retail in her state. It would suffice if she announces in public that all retailers in Paschim Bongo are safe under her and they need not worry about the Walmarts and Carrefours of the world. It would enhance her image as the protector of the poor in the state and keep her vote bank safe. Why does she need to grandstand over the issue and reject the idea of FDI in retail in India altogether? The question goes for all regional straps op-
posed to the FDI proposal and economic reforms in general and to the BJP too which seems to have committed itself dangerously to the anti-reforms agenda of other parties. If it is a broad issue of principle then the next general elections could well be a referendum on the desirability of economic reforms in the country. Given the trend at the moment no prizes for guessing the result. Whichever party or combination of parties comes to power next will find it extremely difficult to push through reforms. Worse, neither
will find virtually impossible to frame policies for the entire country. The trend is discernable. Mamata wants her say on pension and aviation reforms too. She wont have the central government taking a call on Teesta water. Jayalalithaas AIADMK and other Tamil parties would like to have a say on the countrys policy on Sri Lanka. Its only a matter time other regional straps had their say on national policy in different areas. The message is clear. The Centre is withering away and the state satraps are keen on expanding their influence to the national level. They have no patience to capture power at the centre; they would be happy to backseat drive the national government sitting comfortable in state capitals. Their local, limited political agendas would have precedence over bigger considerations. Some would call it coming of age of Indian federalism. However, the feasibility of such an arrangement is open to questions. It would be interesting to watch how the political situation unfolds after the next elections. For now, however, the issue is reforms. The Congress, on the backfoot after so many corruption allegations against it, would be happy to keep it on the front burner. It distracts attention from the more serious charges against it. If theres an election, it would would like to go down portraying itself as the champion of reforms, a martyr for the cause. The more the opposition rakes up the issue, the more the party would be happy with it. It is possible that it would unleash a flurry of reforms measures in
the coming days to keep the opposition going. To balance the negative impact out, it could let out the populist Food Security Bill at some point. Its a desperate party. Theres no point overstating the fact that the measures it has taken up now are an act of desperation. It is opportunism at its best. However, at the moment it is perceived or wants to be perceived as the face of Indian economic reform. But beyond the immediate politics around it the real questions are much bigger. Are economic reforms desirable? Does a government have the moral authority to carry out such reforms when almost the entire political class is opposed to it? If this government cannot do it then which government will? If democracy is about popular choice and popular opinion and parties only articulate the voice of the people they represent, it is apparent that theres is no support for the reforms process. The voices advocating it are too meek and too discredited to make an impact in elections. Moreover, the entire array of extra-government forces, including the civil society groups, which are active at the moment have strong Leftist inclinations. Thus even if theres a modicum of consensus among political parties about reforms, there are other powerful players to negate it. What happens to reforms in these circumstances? They are as good as dead. The elections will be the last nail in the coffin.
Opposition parties want FDI in retail rolled back
Opposition parties voice protest against FDI and hold their decision strong
any of the parties in the Opposition have expressed strong opposition against FDI in retail and have welcomed Mamatas decision to walk out of the government. Heres what they had to say: Gurudas Dasgupta, CPI leader If they (TMC) decide to pull out of the antipeople governments then it is good. I thank them and I think that the decision will give a blow to the present government. Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, Spokesperson, BJP The government cannot survive for too long.
Mid-term polls are unavoidable. Public anger has emerged and Mamata has given shape to that. Danish Ali, JD(S) leader Deve Gowda has written to the government personally in opposition to FDI. There is no going back and we will join in the protest on Friday. Baijayany Panda, BJD MP We will have Odishas interest in mind. There is no question of supporting a government led by either Congress or BJP.
Govt planning to bring more economic reforms: Khurshid

Khurshid said economic reforms were the way forward for the Indian economy and it was the continuation of policies which the country had been following for a long time.
PTI, Sep 19, 2012
ew Delhi: The government is planning to go ahead with more economic reforms especially in areas where these could be done through its own executive powers, Law Minister Salman Khurshid said on Tuesday.
the coming session, he added. Khurshid was also asked as to what were the other reforms that the government had on its mind. Well obviously, the tax legislation will have to wait for parliamentary approval. GST and the Direct Tax Code, these cant come without parliamentary approval. But many other areas where the legislative platforms are already in place, and within the legislative platforms we have the ability for executive decisions we are moving ahead in reforms in those areas, he said. Khurshid said economic reforms were the way forward for the Indian economy and it was the continuation of policies which the country had been following for a long time.
The Prime Minister is leading us from the front with the intention that the next two years are going to be very significant years of economic reforms. These are economic reforms, fortunately that have yet not required any legislation and these can be done without legislation, Khurshid told reporters. There are another major segment that can only come through legislation and we will have to wait to see how much of that we will achieve in
You need to generate wealth in order to be able redistribute it and that is the model from the time of Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru all the way to Narasimha Rao, who worked on a blueprint that was left behind for him by late leader Rajiv Gandhi, he said. The middle class of the country gave Congress party the support due to reforms, Khurshid said.
The Mamata impact:
How Mamata is denting the rupee
and bloating the oil bill

The Mamata Banerjee exit from the UPA is bad news for the rupee and oil prices. Indian politics will delay reforms and hence impact the rupee downwards
Vivek Kaul, Sep 20, 2012
igress, tigress, burning bright, in the forest of the night, what immortal hand or eye, could frame thy fearful symmetry - With due apologies to William Blake Mamata Banerjees pro-people revolt against the UPA is going to make the rupee fall and oil costlier calling for even greater price increases to fix the hole in the budget. By opposing a price hike in diesel and the six cylinder limit on
subsidised cooking gas, she is in fact going to make oil even costlier for India. This is how it works. A major reason for announcing the so-called economic reforms last week was to get Indias burgeoning oil subsidy bill, which was expected to cross Rs 1,90,000 crore during the course of the year, under some control. One move was the increase in diesel price by Rs 5 per litre and limiting the number of cooking
gas cylinders that one could get at the subsidised price. This was a direct step to reduce the losses that the oil marketing companies (OMCs) face every time they sell diesel and cooking gas to the end-consumer. The other part of the reform game was about expectations management. The announcement of reforms, like allowing foreign direct investment in multi-brand retailing or the airline sector, was not expected to have any direct impact any time soon. But what it was expected to do was shore up the image of the government and tell the world at large that this government is committed to economic reform. Now how does that help in controlling the burgeoning oil bill? Oil is sold internationally in dollars. The price of the Indian basket of crude oil is currently quoting at around $115.3 per barrel of oil (one barrel equals around 159 litres). Before the reforms were announced, one dollar was worth around Rs 55.4 (on 13 September 2012). So if an Indian OMC wanted to buy one barrel of oil it had to convert Rs 6,387.2 into $115.3, and pay for the oil. After the reforms were announced the rupee started increasing in value against the dollar. By 17 September, one dollar was worth around Rs 53.7. Now if an Indian OMC wanted to buy one barrel of oil it had to convert Rs 6,191.6 into $115.3 to pay for the oil. Hence, as the rupee increases in value against the dollar, the Indian OMCs pay less for the oil the buy internationally. A major reason for the increase in the value of the rupee was that on 14 September and 17 September, the foreign institutional investors (FIIs) poured money into the stock market. They bought stocks worth Rs 5,086 crore over the two-day period. This meant dollars had to be sold and rupee had to be bought, thus increasing the demand for the rupee and helping it gain in value against the dollar. But this rupee rally was short-lived and the dollar has gained some value against the rupee and is currently worth around Rs 54.27.
The question is why did this happen? Initially the market and the foreign investors bought the idea that the government was committed to ending the policy logjam and initiating various economic reforms. Hence the foreign investors invested money into the stock market, shares rallied and so did the rupee against the dollar. But now the realisation is setting in that the reform process might be derailed even before it has been earnestly started. This was reflected in the amount of money foreign investors brought to the stock market on 18 September. The number was down to around Rs 1,049.2 crore. In comparison they had invested more than Rs 5,080 crore over the last two trading sessions. Mamata Banerjees Trinamool Congress, a key constituent of the UPA government, has decided to withdraw support to the government. At the same time it has asked the government to withdraw a major part of the reforms it has already initiated by Friday. If the government does that the Trinamool Congress will reconsider its decision. How the political scenario plays out remains to be seen. But if the government does bow to Mamatas diktat which seems unlikely now - then the economic repercussions of that decision will be huge. The government had hoped that the losses on account of selling diesel, kerosene and cooking gas could have been brought down to Rs 1,67,000 crore, from the earlier Rs 1,92,000 crore by increasing the price of diesel and limiting the consumption of subsidised cooking gas. If the government goes back on these moves, or even stop going further down that road in the months ahead, the oil subsidy bill will go back to attaining a monstrous size. Also, what the calculation of Rs 1,67,000 crore did not take into account was the fact that rupee would gain in value against the dollar. And that would have further brought down the oil subsidy bill. In fact, HSBC, which had earlier forecast Rs 57 to a dollar by December 2012, revised its forecast to Rs 52 to a dollar on Monday. But by then the Mamata factor hadnt come into play. Even if the government does not bow to Mamata there are the Mulayams and Mayawatis to
think about and they are not talking any different the rupee will definitely start losing value against the dollar again. This will happen because some foreign investors may opt to stay away from both the stock market as well as direct investment. In fact, foreign direct investment during the period of April to June 2012 has been disastrous. It has fallen by 67 percent to $4.41billion in comparison to $13.44 billion during the same period in 2011. If the government goes back on the few reforms that it unleashed over the last weekend, foreign direct investment is likely to remain low. One factor that can change things for India is the if the price of crude oil were to fall. But that looks unlikely. The immediate reason is the tension in the Middle East and the threat of war between Iran and Israel. Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, recently said that the United States would not set any deadline for the ongoing negotiations with Iran. This hasnt gone down terribly well with Israel. Reacting to this, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel said the world tells Israel, wait, theres still time, and I say, Wait for what, wait until when? Those in the international community who refuse to put a red line before Iran dont have the moral right to place a red light before Israel. (Source: www.oilprice.com) Iran does not recognise Israel as a nation. This has led to countries buying up more oil than they need and building stocks to take care of this geopolitical risk. In the recent period, since the start of 2012, the increase in stocks has been substantial, i.e. 2 to 3 million barrels per day. These are probably precautionary stocks linked to geopolitical risks, writes Patrick Artus of Flash Economics in a recent report titled Why is the oil price not falling? At the same time, the United States is pushing nations across the world to not source their oil from Iran, which is the second largest producer of oil within the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec). This includes India as well. With the rupee losing value against the dollar and the oil price remaining high the oil subsidy bill is likely to continue to remain high. And this means the trade deficit (the difference be-
tween exports and imports) is likely to remain high. Exports for the period between April and July 2012 stood at $97.64billion. Imports, on the other hand, were at $153.2 billion. Of this, $53.81 billion was spent on oil imports. If we take oil imports out of the equation the difference between Indias exports and imports is very low.
Now how does this impact the value of the rupee against the dollar? An exporter gets paid in dollars. When he brings those dollars back into the country he has to convert them into rupees. This means he has to buy rupees and sell dollars. This helps shore up the value of the rupee as the demand for rupee goes up. In case of an importer, the things work exactly the opposite way. An importer has to pay for the imports in dollars. To do this, he has to buy dollars by paying in rupees. This increases the demand for dollar and pushes up its value against the rupee. As we see, the difference between imports and exports for the first four months of the year has been around $55 billion. This means that the demand for the dollar has been greater than the demand for the rupee. One way to fill this gap would be if foreign investors bring in money to the stock market as well as for direct investment. They would have had to convert the dollars they want to invest into rupees and that would have increased the demand for the rupee. The FIIs have brought in around $3.86 billion (at the current rate of $1 equals Rs 54) since the beginning of the year. The foreign direct investment for the first three months of the year has
been at $4.41 billion. So what this tells us that there is a huge gap between the demand for and supply of dollars. And precisely because of this the dollar has gained in value against the rupee. On 2 April 2012, at the beginning of the financial year, one dollar was worth around Rs 50.8. Now its worth Rs 54-plus.
their cost to consumers, the losses will continue to mount. The current losses have been projected to be at Rs 1,67,000 crore. I wont be surprised if they cross Rs 2,00,000 crore. The government has to compensate the OMCs for these losses in order to ensure that they dont go bankrupt. This also means that the government will cross its fiscal deficit target of Rs 5,13,590 crore. The fiscal deficit might well be on its way to touch Rs 7,00,000 crore, or 7 percent of GDP. (For a detailed exposition of this argument click here). And that will be a disastrous situation to be in. Interest rates will continue to remain high. And so will inflation. To conclude, consider what happens to the traffic in Mumbai during Ganesh Chaturthi and upto immersion days. Any five people can get together while taking their Ganesh idol to their homes, put on a loudspeaker, start dancing on the road and thus delay the entire traffic on the road for hours. Indian politics post-Mamata is getting to be more and more like that. Reforms, like the traffic, may have to wait. Mamatas revolt is single-handedly worsening the oil bill, thanks, in part, to the rupees worsening fortunes. By not raising prices now, the subsidy bill bloat further, and in due course we will be truly in the soup. Vivek Kaul is a writer and can be reached at vivek.kaul@gmail.com
This situation is likely to continue. And I wouldnt be surprised if rupee goes back to its earlier levels of Rs 56 to a dollar in the days to come. It might even cross those levels, if the government does bow to the diktats of Mamata or gets into election mode, where nothing sensible will be done on passing on oil price hike to the consumer. Since the government forces the OMCs to sell diesel, kerosene and cooking gas much below
Is Mamata Banerjee the

new voice of Indias left?
ust when everyone thought they had figured Mamata Banerjee out, she surprised again.
In a decisive move she walked out of the UPA government reducing the strength of the government to just 254, way short of the magic figure of 272 that the government needs for a majority in the Parliament. But is the Trinamool Congress, a party spearheaded by the firebrand leader, positioning itself as the New Left? Sagarika Ghose of CNNIBN thinks that the TMC might well emerge as the new pro-poor, anti-reforms voice that was so long thought as a strong ideology guiding the Left. In a multi-lingual press conference on Tuesday, Didi made some clear decisions regarding her stance on the FDI in retail and the diesel price hike. We are for the poor. We are for the ganatantra (democracy), she said. On the face of it, the pull-out might look like yet another of the firebrand politicians stunts, but political analysts feel it might also be a wellthought out long term political strategy.
Swapan Dasgupta, senior journalist and political analyst feels that this might not be the question of the Fourth alternative front or be likened to the Eastern Bloc. But this (the move) is a question of the larger federal reorganisation of India, he said. She has many advantages over the other opposition parties in creating an alternative front that could weather the political climate of India. Political analysts feel that with the integrity of Mulayam Singh and Mayawati taking a beating, the BJP unclear on reforms, and Left being battered in election after election, Didi stands a good chance of emerging as the new voice of the opposition in the era of globalisation and free markets. The TMC is on a winning streak after winning seven seats in Manipur, five in Arunachal Pradesh, one each in Assam and Uttar Pradesh, TMC has clearly emerged as the new left that rallies against FDI and reforms. With Didi declaring, This government (UPA) has lost their credentials the country may well be on its way to a political crisis after Didi pulls out her six Ministers from the Cabinet on Friday.
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DIDIS BOMBSHELL AND

The final cut

What makes Didi angry?

Will the UPA survive?

The fate of the reforms

The Mamata impact:

Copyright 2012 Firstpost

The final cut

Copyright 2012 Firstpost

Will UPA-2 endgame mirror UPA-1?

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Mamatas master stroke or

hats with this mysterious 72 hours?

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Why the Congress may see

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Dear Mr PM, just post a message

on Didis Facebook wall

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TMC remains defiant, say no compromise with UPA

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What makes Didi angry?

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Mamatas rage: How Congress

flunked the EQ test

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Abhimaan, thy name is Mamata

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The madness of Queen Mamata

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Mamata Banerjee, the domestic (abuse) Goddess

ith friends like these who needs enemies?

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Will the UPA survive?

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Mamata bombshell leaves UPA -2

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Post-Mamata, Mulayam to bail out UPA

for secularisms sake

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Sonias script went wrong in 2004

Copyright 2012 Firstpost

The fate of the reforms

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Why the next elections will be

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Opposition parties want FDI in retail rolled back

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Govt planning to bring more economic reforms: Khurshid

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The Mamata impact:

Copyright 2012 Firstpost

How Mamata is denting the rupee

and bloating the oil bill

Copyright 2012 Firstpost

Is Mamata Banerjee the

Copyright 2012 Firstpost

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