21 December 2008
AT Capital Weekly Update
Weekly News Update
EDITORS
Asian Tiger Capital Partners
Ifty Islam
Managing Partner
ifty.islam@at-capital.com
Syeed Khan
Partner
syeed.khan@at-capital.com
Jisha Sarwar
Senior Research Associate
jisha.sarwar@at-capital.com
Asian Tiger
Capital Partners
UTC Building, Level 16
8 Panthapath, Dhaka-1215
Bangladesh
Tel: 8155144, 8110345
Fax: 9118582
www.at-capital.com
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
Key themes in this issue are:
Bangladesh Overview:
• Bangladesh’s parliamentary election is scheduled for 29 December 2008. 33 political parties will field
candidates in 300 constituencies across the country.
• We believe the move back to democracy will see a rise in domestic spending and provide a welcome
offset to the ongoing global economic crisis that may drag on exports and remittances. We also expect
that property prices will receive a boost with potential fund reallocation away from the stock market
back to real estate.
• The Awami League’s (‘AL’) share of the popular vote was around 40% in 2001, when the BNP won in a
landslide, with 193 out of 300 seats to AL’s 62. However, this time, 37% of voters are considering
voting for a different party than in 2001, according to an opinion poll carried out by ACNielsen.
• The critical issue to ensure a peaceful and sustained democracy, and avoiding the return to the hartals
and street violence that had such a detrimental impact on the economy in previous governments, is
that both sides accept that the election has been transparent and fair.
• It is encouraging that both the AL and BNP parties have given a lot more importance to economic
issues in their recently published manifestos than they have in the past.
• AL manifesto underlines the following: (a) maintaining price stability and ensuring for the poor a
reasonable price for food (b) maintaining macro stability in the face of global recession (c) effective
steps against corruption (d) generating 5000 MW electricity within the next three years and 7000MW by
2013, and (e) poverty reduction through inducing dynamism in agricultural and rural life.
• The BNP prioritizes the following: good governance, poverty alleviation, employment creation, and
making democracy more effective.
• Both sides have agreed that the country’s acute energy shortage is one of the biggest impediments to
economic growth. Both manifestos have addressed this issue. The AL has outlined targets for
enhancing generation capacity, to 5000MW by 2011, and 7000MW by 2013. These are fairly
conservative targets given that current demand is estimated at around 5500MW, and rising. Both
parties want to set up small power plants for quick implementation. The BNP has committed to
awarding contracts for Bibiyana 450MW and Sirajganj 450MW power stations within 100 days of taking
charge. Both parties support exploration for new gas, oil and coal, with the AL also suggesting it will
seek to move forward on the Rooppur Nuclear Power project.
Global Overview:
• The scale of the global financial crisis was underlined by the decision last week made by the US
Federal Reserve to follow Japan into the era of Zero-Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP). The Fed cut policy
interest rates to zero, or more specifically agreed to target rates in a 0-0.25% range.
• Although the US Dollar has weakened sharply to 1.44 versus the EUR, the slow response of the ECB
on rates will need to be reviewed as the European downturn gathers more momentum and the collapse
in commodity prices increases the risk of European deflation.
• Oil prices this week plunged to their lowest level since February 2004. The benchmark US crude price
sank below the USD 33-a-barrel level on Friday. Nymex January West Texas Intermediate dropped to
USD 32.40, a near five-year low, before recovering to settle at USD 33.87, down 26.8% this week.
• According to the Institute for International Finance’s (IIF) global economic forecast, World GDP is
expected to decline for the first time in recent history in 2009 with a projected fall of 0.4%, after a 2%
gain this year.
ATC will not be publishing a Weekly next week due to the Christmas holidays. Merry Christmas!
A second stimulus package might be needed to help keep the U.S. economy afloat
21December 2008 AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
Contents Page

Bangladesh Overview
Election Background 4
The Manifestos 4
AL manifestos for the energy sector 5
BNP manifestos for the energy sector 5
ATC Comment
6

Global Markets Overview

Madoff Crisis tops the worst year since the Great Depression for the Financial Sector 7
Fed cuts rates to zero 7
Oil prices collapse continues despite large OPEC production cuts 8
IF forecasts global economy to contract 0.4% in 2009 8
Professor Niall Ferguson on a radical solution to the current global crisis 8
“The age of Obligation” 9

12
Stock Market Weekly
Weekly Stock Market Commentary 13
Stock market News 15

Economics 17
Economics News 18

Sector News 20
Agriculture/ Banking/ Infrastructure & Energy 20
Leather Goods 21
Pharmaceuticals/ Telecoms/ Textiles 22

Appendices 23
Awami League Manifesto 23
BNP Manifesto 27

_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update 2
21December 2008
Bangladesh Overview
Bangladesh’s parliamentary election is scheduled for 29
December 2008. 33 political parties will field candidates in
300 constituencies across the country. On 22 January 2009
voters will elect 486 upazila (sub-district) councils. Some 81
million people are eligible to vote; in recent elections turnout
has been around 75 per cent. With just over one week left
before the parliamentary elections, it looks likely that
Bangladesh will return to an elected democracy in the New
Year.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) published a thought-
provoking Report on Dec 11 “Bangladesh Elections and
Beyond” (Asia Policy Briefing number 84). They noted that,
“a number of factors could adversely affect the elections and
their aftermath. Although the election laws make electoral
malpractice more difficult, the Election Commission (EC)
has been reluctant to enforce them. Allegations of rigging
could spark a party boycott or political violence; the continued
emergency could prompt rejection of results. Technical flaws
on election day with ballots or the voter roll could cause a
delay or require re-polling in some areas.” Indeed BNP leader
Khaleda Zia expressed concerns about bias in the EC. The
Daily Star on Dec 20 reported her as saying, “that any sort of
'election engineering' in the upcoming parliamentary polls
would bring dire consequences in the country.”
The likelihood is that a peaceful return to elected government
will likely see a boost to domestic investment spending as
projects that have been postponed or curtailed due to
political uncertainty are resumed. The Anti-corruption drive
had laudable aims and both parties have committed in their
manifestos to avoiding a return to the systematic and
widespread corruption that dogged previous administrations.
But the breadth of the anti-corruption drive of the Caretaker
Government (‘CTG’) also, undoubtedly, saw greater risk
aversion in the business community which in turn saw
sharply reduced investment spending. We believe the move
back to democracy will see a rise in domestic spending and
provide a welcome offset to the ongoing global economic
crisis that may drag on exports and remittances. We also
expect that property prices will receive a boost with potential
fund reallocation away from the stockmarket back to real
estate. The Anti-corruption drive had appeared to target
apartment purchases to a greater extent than stockmarket
investments. This may have been one factor, along with
limited overseas participation, that has left the DSE more
resilient to the collapse in other EM equities seen in 2008.
There are no officially published opinion polls although there
has been a presumption that the BNP has been hampered by
internal division to a greater extent than the Awami League.
The League’s share of the popular vote was around 40% in
2001, when the BNP won in a landslide, with 193 out of 300
seats to the League’s 62. However, this time, 37% of voters
are considering voting for a different party than in 2001,
according to an opinion poll carried out by ACNielsen. The
BNP claimed last time to have attracted the vast majority of
first-time voters, but little is known about the preferences of
_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
Ifty Islam, Managing Partner
ifty.islam@at-capital.com
26mn new voters this time. In all, nearly a quarter of all
voters are undecided.
The ICG Report went on to note that “Keeping the military in
the barracks will require the new government and the
opposition to seek accommodation with each other and the
army. Dialogue with the CTG has demonstrated to the political
parties that they can advance their interests through peaceful
negotiations. If civilian rule is to succeed in Bangladesh,
cooperation must be placed before confrontation. A return to
zero-sum politics by the parties could be an excuse for the army
step in yet again.”
The general election is likely to be the most closely
observed in the country’s history, with over 165,000 domestic
observers, primarily from the Election Working Group
(‘EWG’), which will also field around 42,500 observers for the
upazila polls. Around 330 EU and U.S. observers, as well as
organisations such as the Asian Network for Free
Elections, will also be present. The UN has sent a high-
level expert mission to assess preparations but will not have
a formal observation role. Domestic and international
monitoring can provide an objective and independent
assessment of the vote and count.
The ICG report noted that in its first days, the new gover-
nment and parliament will be faced with a series of
challenges. The constitution requires the next parliament
within its first 30 days to vote on presidential ordinances
1
issued during the emergency. This is likely to be
contentious. The major parties may well endorse the
ordinances, many of which, such as the reconstitution of the
Election Commission and the Public Service Commission,
are popular. However, an endorsement of CTG reforms is not
the same as a commitment to continue the process. Equally
important – and equally contentious – will be the formation of
parliamentary committees, which should have meaningful
bipartisan participation, including the appointment of some
opposition chairpersons. The parties’ own cultures are key. A
former Awami League parliamentarian said, “If we cannot
practice democracy within our own party, there is little hope
2
that the parliament be any different”.
Our sense is that the elections may be close. But the critical
issue to ensure a peaceful and sustained democracy, and
avoiding the return to the hartals and street violence that had
such a detrimental impact on the economy in previous
governments, is that both sides accept that the election has
been transparent and fair. In addition, it is important that we
move to a genuine parliamentary democracy where the
opposition has meaningful rights and an ability to influence
the direction of policy through parliamentary committees. Any
return to excessive centralisation of power in the ruling party
risks an unstable equilibrium where the opposition feels
compelled to take to streets to make their voice heard. For
Bangladesh to move ahead to the next phase of economic
growth, it is critical this is avoided at all costs.
1
When parliament is adjourned (as it currently is) presidential ordinances
have the same weight as acts of parliament and are valid until one month after
an elected parliament begins to function.
2
Crisis Group interview, Dhaka, 3 November 2008.
3
 21December 2008
3
Election Background3
Two parties, the Awami League and the BNP, dominate the
political landscape.4 Smaller parties like the Jamaat-e Islami
and the Ershad faction of the Jatiya Party can play important
roles as king-makers in party alliances. Political allegiances to
these parties are strong, and each has become a source of
social and financial security for their supporters. Party
coalitions and seat-sharing calculations (the division of
constituencies between alliance partners) will be important.
Under the first-past-the-post system it is the number of seats,
not the %age of the vote that counts. A BNP-led four-party
alliance won a comfortable majority in 2001 (taking 214 seats
out of 300) even though the Awami League and its allies
received more votes. For the smaller parties in particular,
the negotiation with alliance partners over the seats they
can contest – how many and how winnable they are – is as
important as the election itself.
Awami League
The Awami League will lead a coalition of fourteen
likeminded parties into the election. The coalition is more
symbolic than significant; none of the other members won
seats in the last parliament. To maximise its chances of
winning, the Awami League has formed an electoral or “grand
alliance” which includes the fourteen-party coalition and the
three other parties, the Liberal Democratic Party, the Jatiya
Party-Ershad and a faction of the Islamist party the Islami Oikya
5
Jote.
As the ICG report notes “If elected, the Awami League says it
will ratify “in one stroke of a pen” all of the CTG’s reforms and
endorse the presidential ordinances issued during the
6
emergency. The acting secretary general of the party, Syed
Ashraful Islam, declared, “not only the Awami League but
any party that will form the next government will have to
ratify the present government’s activities for its own
legality”.7 Sheikh Hasina told the Crisis Group that the CTG
had adopted her own party’s agenda, “the plan we put
forward before the cancelled election”.8 She said however
that the government “is going about it illegally and they are
failing … none of [the reforms] started by the government
have been done properly….We will continue with the reforms
but we will do it the correct the way, by the laws of the
9
land”. ”
3
This section draws heavily on the ICG (2008) Report.
4 manifesto also focuses on the need for increased growth and
The two parties have tended to alternate power since the country’s
independence in 1971. The Awami League, considered left of centre, secular,
pro-Indian and rural, has governed twice since independence; the BNP, right
of centre, urban, anti-Indian, Islamic-leaning with close ties to the military,
has been in power longer than any other party. While these descriptions are
generally accurate, neither party is rigid in its ideology.
5
The faction of Islami Okiya Jote (IOJ) in the Awami League’s “grand alliance”
is led by Mishabur Rahman Chowdhury. An Awami League leader says it
was admitted into the coalition because of its “commitment to secularism
and the IOJ’s pro-liberation war position”. Crisis Group telephone
interview, 1 December 2008.
6
Crisis Group interview, Syed Ashraful Islam, Awami League acting secretary
general, Dhaka, 1 November 2008.
7 10
Ibid.
8
Crisis Group interview, Sheikh Hasina, Awami League president,
Washington DC, 30 September 2008.
9
Ibid.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
BNP
The ICG report notes that the emergency has hit the BNP
harder than other parties. The government has attempted to
bar 109 senior BNP leaders from standing for election, many
of them former parliamentarians and the party’s preferred
candidates.10 Internal divisions may also threaten the party at
the polls. Abdul Mannan Bhuiyan, the party’s reform-minded
and popular general secretary expelled for indiscipline, is
standing as an independent; he and others like him may take
their supporters with them.
In the next section of the Overview, we discuss the economic
manifestos of the two parties and assess in more detail their
plans for the energy sector and make some
recommendations.
The Manifestos
It is encouraging that both the Awami League (‘AL’) and BNP
parties have given a lot more importance to economic issues
in their recently published manifestos than they have in the
past. While AL has focused more on some economic
development issues such as growth and power generation
with specific short, medium and long-term goals, BNP has
touched upon several micro economic issues in addition to
emphasizing on the need for political reforms.
AL President Sheikh Hasina announced the party’s
manifesto with a target of raising GDP growth to 8 % by 2013
and bringing down the poverty rate to 25 %. The fact that the
party has formulated specific short-term and long-term action
programmes focusing on economic issues is a promising
sign. AL’s time bound quantitative targets make the party’s
manifesto a more specific one than the BNP manifesto. Time
bound economic plans will allow periodic evaluations of the
projects, and hence will promote the party’s accountability to
the public.
AL manifesto underlines the following: (a) maintaining price
stability and ensuring for the poor a reasonable price for
food, (b) maintaining macro stability in the face of global
recession, (c) effective steps against corruption, (d)
generating 5000 MW electricity by next three years and
7000MW by 2013, and (e) poverty reduction through
inducing dynamism in the agricultural and rural life.
Similar to the AL manifesto, the BNP manifesto also focuses
on economic issues, but however, lacks any specific time
bound targets. BNP prioritizes the following: good
governance, poverty alleviation and employment creation,
and making democracy more effective. Although the party’s
reduction of poverty, it fails to provide any specific target for
the goals. However, the party promises to adopt a sound
foreign policy by establishing a “look east” policy.
Another main focus in BNP's manifesto is on reducing prices
of essentials, however, the party does not specify how it
would accomplish that goal. The party also pledged to
increase power generation, which requires proper
exploitation of gas and coal. However, it did not point out the
67 out of the 109 BNP party members on the government’s list were
former MPs. A majority, if not all, of 67 MPs were likely to be nominated
by the party for the 2008 election. A copy of the CTG’s list is on file with
Crisis Group.
4
21December 2008
source of gas - whether it would be bought from the
international oil companies or BAPEX. Also there lacks a
guideline regarding the method of coal extraction, which has
been a controversial issue.
Manifestos of both the two major parties contain little
guidelines for resource mobilization or a detailed funding
scheme, without which no pledges can be fulfilled.
Both manifestos stated that the parties will undertake a
number of infrastructure projects such as, the Padma Bridge,
a Deep Seaport, the Dhaka-Chittagong Expressway, flyovers
and mono rail for removing traffic congestion, the Karnafuli
bridge, and the like. Support from multilateral donors will be
sought and public-private partnerships will be
encouraged.Both parties have addressed inflation as a
priority. AL promises to eliminate profiteering syndicates and
stop extortion by creating an institution to control commodity
prices and protect the consumer. The BNP manifesto does
not mention anything about syndicates, but promises to
reduce prices by increasing food production, improving the
supply chain by better utilizing storage facilities, creating an
employment generating program to increase the purchasing
power of the poor, and directly subsidizing prices of
necessities.
Poverty alleviation is also a key focus in both the manifestos.
AL promises to reduce the number of poor people from
currently 65 million to 45 million by 2013 through a
combination of social welfare measures and rural
employment generation policies. BNP does not mention
anything specific, but it also promises poverty reduction
through economic growth.
Last but not least, bipartisan commitment towards continuing
the anti-corruption drive and improving the country's law and
order situation is laudable.
In their published manifestos, both AL and BNP have
provided strategies and proposals for solving the country’s
acute energy crisis in order to attain higher economic growth.
AL manifestos for the energy sector

A comprehensive long term policy on electricity and
energy will be adopted.

Economic usage of oil, gas, coal, hydro power, wind
power and solar energy will be ensured.

Big and small power generation stations, coal
extraction, and oil and gas exploration will be given
priority.

Under a three year crash program quick
implementation of ongoing and under consideration
power generation stations, import of electricity from
neighbouring countries, arranging 100/150MW gas
turbine projects on an urgent basis, and the
reactivation of the past AL initiatives for constructing
10, 20 and 30MW power stations will be
undertaken.

A schedule for repair, maintenance and overhauling
or salvaging of old power stations will be made to
increase and stabilize power production.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH

Supply of gas and LPG will be increased.

The Rooppur Nuclear Power Project will be
implemented.

In the next three years or by 2011 power production
will be increased to 5000MW and by 2013 it will be
further increased to 7000MW.

Priority will be given to exploration and exploitation
of oil and new gas fields. Arrangements will be
made to supply gas in the north and western
regions of the country. Supply of gas and LPG will
be significantly increased.

A Coal Policy will be formulated safeguarding
national interests.

Special initiatives will be taken to ensure economic
use of the coal available so far and also to develop
coal-based power plants.

Priorities will be given to the exploration and
exploitation of new coal fields and other mineral
resources.

Energy Security: An energy policy will be adopted
tapping all sources of traditional and non-traditional
energy to ensure accelerated rate of economic
development and industrialization. A three year
crash programme will be taken up to meet the
existing crisis. By 2021, demand for electricity is
projected to increase to 20,000MW.

To increase gas production, regular surveys of gas
resources and work on well development will be
undertaken.

To meet energy demand, efforts will be undertaken
for regional energy security through mutual
cooperation in addition to exploring internal
sources.
BNP manifestos
manifestos for the energy sector

The power projects which were approved by the
World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and
Japan, and those projects that are in the pipeline
will be implemented.

Within 100 days of forming the government, BNP
promises to complete the re-tendering process for
setting up a 450MW plant at Bibiana and a 450MW
plant in Sirajganj.

Installation of Small Power Plants (SPP) by private
investors funded by different banks will be
encouraged.

Nuclear power plants will be set up for power
generation.

The gas and coal reserves of the country will be
utilized and new exploration activities will be
undertaken immediately.
5
21December 2008

To fully utilize gas, oil and coal an expert committee
will be formed within 100 days of forming the
government and a national energy policy will be
formulated according to their recommendations.
This policy will cover power generation and
exploration and production of gas, oil and coal
reserves.
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
AL stated that they will prepare a schedule for the
maintenance and overhauling of old power plants to ensure
better utilization of primary fuel and uninterrupted power
generation. We appreciate this commitment as a number of
our government owned power plants are very old and
running inefficiently and technical glitches occur in these
plants frequently. The BNP’s manifesto does not outline any

Initiatives will be taken to conduct feasibility studies

of hydro, wind and solar energy.

The Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission

will be more active.

ATC Comment
AL’s target of achieving 5000MW of electricity by 2011 and
7000MW by 2013 does not seem to be an ambitious target,
but considering the power generation addition in the last few
years it seems to be reasonable and logical.

Supply Demand Curve

5500

5000
measures in respect of old power plants.

4500 AL discussed the possibility of importing electricity from

Demand neighbouring countries, whereas any mention of regional
MW

4000
integration in the energy sector is missing in the BNP’s
3500 Actual manifesto. We think regional co-operation in the energy
Capacity sector could be mutually beneficial for both Bangladesh and
3000
its neighbouring countries.
2500
The BNP stated that it will conduct feasibility studies on
renewable energy in Bangladesh. We think renewable
energy can be a good option for Bangladesh's off grid areas
where conventional power generation is not currently
Regarding power generation, the BNP stated that they will economically viable. Furthermore, BNP promised that they
re-tender the two large power plants of 450MW each - will make Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission
Bibiana and Sirajganj – within 100 days of forming the new (BERC) more active.
government. This proposition sounds attractive considering
the current severe power shortage but the major question is
how these large power plants will receive gas supply as the
current gas production cannot even feed the existing power Ifty Islam
plants! Managing Partner
ifty.islam@at-capital.com
Both parties promised to set up nuclear power plants, which
is very important for primary energy source diversification. Jisha Sarwar
Senior Research Associate
AL mentioned the need to formulate a well thought out coal jisha.sarwar@at-capital.com
policy, but did not specify any timeline for achieving this. The
BNP expressed their interest on formulating an updated Md Emran Hasan
national energy policy, which will not particularly focus on the Research Associate
coal sector only. We believe, formulating an articulate coal emran.hasan@at-capital.com
policy is the first stage of developing the coal sector of
Bangladesh and priority should be given to complete that
within a specific time frame. The coal policy has not
beenfinalized over the last three years and is still in a draft
form.

Both parties stated that they will give priority to exploring and
utilizing gas, oil and coal sectors. Along with that we think
some timeline for achieving particular targets should be
given.

_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update 6
21December 2008
Global Markets Overview
Madoff Crisis tops the worst year since the Great Depression
for the Financial Sector
Sector
Bernard Madoff’s reported USD 50bn Ponzi scheme has
already seen banks, hedge funds and other investors write
off USD 27bn. It caps off the worst year since the depression
and will put further liquidity pressure on bank balance sheets.
But perhaps worse are the question marks on the whole
hedge fund industry as to how such sophisticated investors
could have been so easily fooled. The New York Times on
Dec 19 published the most comprehensive review of the
origins of the Madoff scandal. It can be seen at:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/business/20madoff.html?_r=1&
pagewanted=all
Fed cut rates to zero
The scale of the global financial crisis was underlined by the
decision last week made by the US Federal Reserve to
follow Japan into the era of Zero-Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP).
The decision underlines the reality of just how severe this
crisis is, and the fact that all indicators, from the US labour
market to housing to global oil prices collapsing to a new
cyclical low and the Auto Bailout, all suggest the worst is to
come in 2009.
The Fed cut policy interest rates to zero, or more specifically
agreed to target rates in a 0-0.25% range. And it signaled
that it hasn’t run out of ammunition even if it cannot cut rates
further. The so called quantitative easing means it can add
further stimulus as long as there are still financial assets that
it is willing to purchase. The FOMC statement is below:
“The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to
promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and
to preserve price stability. In particular, the Committee
anticipates that weak economic conditions are likely to
warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for
some time.
The focus of the Committee’s policy going forward will be to
support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the
economy through open market operations and other
measures that sustain the size of the Federal Reserve’s
balance sheet at a high level.. As previously announced, over
the next few quarters the Federal Reserve will purchase
large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed
securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing
markets, and it stands ready to expand its purchases of
agency debt and mortgage-backed securities as conditions
warrant. The Committee is also evaluating the potential
benefits of purchasing longer-term Treasury securities. Early
next year, the Federal Reserve will also implement the Term
Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the
extension of credit to households and small businesses. The
Federal Reserve will continue to consider ways of using its
balance sheet to further support credit markets and
economic activity.”
As global Macro watcher Brad Stetser has noted, over the
last few months, the Fed has more or less taken over a slew
of functions previously performed by the private financial
system.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
Banks with spare cash (more deposits than loans) used to
lend to banks that were short of cash (more loans than
deposits). Now they lend to the Fed, and the Fed lends to the
banks that are short on cash. That way no bank risks taking
losses lending to a bad bank.
Money market funds used to lend both to the financial sector
and to firms with short-term financing needs. Now they (to
simplify a bit) just buy Treasuries. The Treasury met this
demand by increasing its issuance, and (to simplify a bit)
putting the cash it raised on deposit with the Fed. That in turn
allowed the Fed to lend to institutions in the US and abroad
that previously relied on money market funds for financing.
Foreign central banks used to buy rather significant sums of
Agency bonds, and in the process finance (indirectly) the
extension of credit to American households. Now foreign
central banks just want Treasuries. The Fed now plans to
purchase rather significant quantities of Agencies, in effect
making up for the fall off in demand from other central banks.
As Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman notes, “We are in very
deep trouble” — and it isn’t clear if the Fed’s various initiatives
will be enough to pull the US economy out of its current
tailspin. But the Fed can hardly be accused of not trying. It
isn’t the ECB.
However, it is difficult to argue that Fed Chairman and his
colleagues are not being pro-active enough. They are taking
risks, but necessary ones that most likely the Bank of
England and the ECB may well have to follow. The real
criticism of the Fed is that it – for a host of reasons – didn’t try
very hard to limit the buildup of financial vulnerabilities that
generated the current mess.
Although the US Dollar has weakened sharply to 1.44 versus
the EUR, the slow response of the ECB on rates will need to
be reviewed as the European downturn gathers more
momentum and the collapse in commodity prices increases
the risk of European deflation. We are not convinced the US
Dollar will weaken from here on a trend basis so any relief for
Bangladeshi exporters to Europe given the BDT-USD link,
will likely prove temporary.
Source: Bespoke Investment Research
7
21December 2008
Indeed, as the table from Bespoke Research illustrates, the 6
day decline in the US Dollar to Dec 17 is the largest move
ever.
Source: Bespoke
Bespoke Investment Research
Oil Prices Collapse Continues despite large OPEC
production cuts
Oil prices this week plunged to their lowest level since
February 2004, in spite of Opec’s latest effort to steady the
market with an agreement to implement the largest supply
cut in the cartel’s history, which was announced on
Wednesday December 17.
The benchmark US crude price sank below the USD 33-a-
barrel level on Friday. Nymex January West Texas
Intermediate dropped to USD 32.40, a near five-year low,
before recovering to settle USD 2.35 lower at USD 33.87,
down 26.8% this week.
The January contract expired at the close on Friday, so there
was significantly more trading in the February WTI contract,
the benchmark from next week, up 69 cents at USD 42.36 a
barrel, recovering from a low of USD 40.90. ICE February
Brent rebounded 64 cents to USD 44 a barrel, down 10.4%
this week.
Opec pledged to cut output by 2.2M barrels per day, on top
of cuts totaling 2m b/d agreed earlier this year. But doubts
that the cartel’s members would fully comply with the
agreement and concerns about the outlook for demand
ensured downward pressure on oil prices.
Pessimism on the global economic outlook and the prospects
for oil demand outweighed the positive impact for prices of
supply cuts.
As shown in the chart below, after rallying 732.6% from its
low of USD 17.45 in 2001 to its high of USD 145.29 this July,
oil is now down an incredible 76.1% from its peak. In the
past, some commentators have compared the oil bubble with
the Nasdaq and homebuilder bubbles. At its current price of
USD 34, oil only needs to fall another USD 2 to see the same
declines that the Nasdaq saw during the bursting of its
bubble. The only difference is that it took years for the
Nasdaq to reach its lows, while oil has declined by almost as
much in just a few months. At -76.1% in 5 months, oil's fall,
like the drop in the Baltic Dry Index, is one of the most
extreme bubble bursts in history.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
Source: Bespoke Investment Research
Among the base metals, copper sank below the USD 3,000 a
tonne level for the first time since May 2005 with the red
metal dropping 7.7 per cent to USD 2,930 a tonne over the
week, under pressure from rising stock levels.
IIF forecasts global economy to contract
contract 0.4% in 2009
The Institute for International Finance (the association of
major global banks) has just published their latest global
economic forecast. Their projections are the gloomiest. They
expect steep declines in real gross domestic product are
likely in the current quarter and in the next quarter in the
United States, the Euro-zone countries and in Japan.
Overall, 2009 will see falls in output in these countries and
rising unemployment, but a revival of growth may start in the
late summer of next year, forecast the economists at the
Institute of International Finance. World GDP is expected to
decline for the first time in recent history in 2009 with a
projected fall of 0.4 %, after a 2 % gain this year.
The IIF forecast that the U.S. economy will decline by 1.3 %
next year after an advance of 1.2 % this year, while the Euro
Area economies fall by 1.5 % in 2009 after a 0.9 % drop in
2008, and Japan’s economy falls by 1.2 % next year after
zero growth this year.
The IIF predicted further slowing in the leading emerging
market economies, although their average growth rate in
2009 at 3.1 %, after 5.9 % in 2008, will exceed that of the
mature economies by some 5 %age points. Particularly weak
growth is seen in central, eastern and southern Europe with
growth of just 0.3 % likely for 2009 after 4.5 % in 2008. The
IIF forecast a slowing of the Latin American growth rate to
just 1% next year from 4.5% this year. Stronger growth is
seen in Asia/Pacific, yet here too there is a significant
slowing with growth in the region as a whole seen at 5.7%
after 7.4% in 2008 – the forecasts include growth for China in
2009 of 6.5% after 9.3% this year, and a slowing of India’s
growth to 5% from 6.2% last year.
Professor Niall Ferguson on a radical solution to the current
current
global crisis
In perhaps the most thought provoking article of the crisis so
far, Professor Niall Ferguson of Harvard University suggests
that eliminating debt obligations, as to some extent is
happening via the growing nationalization of bad loans in the
financial and auto sectors, has historical precedents. We
8
21December 2008
reproduce his article in fill below and strongly recommend all
of our readers to take a look if they have not already done so:
“The age of obligation”
By Niall Ferguson
Published: December 18, 2008| Last updated: December 18,
2008
Liquidity Supplier: detail from “The Money Lender and His Wife”,
Quinten Metsys, 1514
“In the Old Testament Book of Leviticus, God commands the
children of Israel to observe a jubilee every 50 years.
Nowadays we tend to associate the word with celebrations of
royal anniversaries such as Queen Elizabeth’s golden jubilee
in 2002. But the biblical conception of a jubilee was more
precise: that of a general cancellation of debts.
This point is spelt out in Deuteronomy: “Every creditor that
lendeth ought unto his neighbour shall release it; he shall not
exact it of his neighbour, or of his brother; because it is called
the Lord’s release.
Such injunctions may strike the modern reader as utopian.
How could any sophisticated society function if all debts were
cancelled twice a century – much less, as Deuteronomy
seems to suggest, every seven years? Yet we know that
such general cancellations of debt really did happen in the
ancient world. In 1788 BC, for example, about 500 years
before the time of Moses, King Rim-Sin of Ur issued a royal
edict declaring all loans null and void, wiping out some of
history’s earliest known moneylenders.
The idea of a generalized debt cancellation is not wholly
unknown in modern times. The late Gerald Feldman, the
world’s leading authority on the German hyperinflation of
1923, drew a parallel between the ancient Hebrew yovel and
the wiping out of all paper mark-denominated debts as a
result of the collapse of the German currency (though, as he
_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
was quick to point out, those whose savings were wiped out
were far from jubilant).
In the hope of avoiding the mark’s meltdown, the economist
John Maynard Keynes had repeatedly called for a general
cancellation of the war debts and reparations arising from the
First World War. Though no such intergovernmental jubilee
was ever proclaimed, debt cancellation was effectively what
happened after 1931, beginning with President Herbert
Hoover’s one-year moratorium on both war debts and
reparations.
As 2008 draws to a close, there are many people on both
sides of the Atlantic who yearn for such a simple solution to
the problem of excessive indebtedness. Parallels with the
interwar period are not inappropriate. It is all but inevitable
that we shall see serious political and geopolitical upheavals
in 2009, as the recession takes its toll on weak governments
(Thailand and Greece are already reeling) and raises the
stakes in inter-state rivalries (India-Pakistan). In the words of
Hank Paulson, the US Treasury secretary: “We are dealing
with a historic situation that happens once or twice in 100
years.” The stakes are high indeed. Has the time arrived for a
once-in-50-years biblical jubilee?
Excessive debt is the key to this crisis; it is the reason we are
confronting no ordinary recession, curable by a simple
downward adjustment of interest rates. It is the reason we
still have to fear, if not a second Great Depression, then very
likely the biggest recession since the 1930s. We are living
through the painful end of an age of leverage which saw total
private and public debt in the US rise from about 155 per
cent of gross domestic product in the early 1980s to
something like 342 per cent by the middle of this year.
With average household debt rising from about 75 per cent of
annual disposable income in 1990 to very nearly 130 per
cent on the eve of the crisis, a large proportion of American
families are submerging under the weight of their
accumulated borrowings. British households are in even
worse shape.
Looking back, we now see just how big a proportion of US
growth since 2001 was financed by mortgage equity
withdrawals. Without that as a means of financing
consumption, the economy would barely have grown at 1 per
cent a year under President George W. Bush. Looking
forward, we see just how hard it will be to stabilise property
prices and the prices of the securities based on them.
Already, at the end of September, one in 10 American home
owners with a mortgage was either at least a month in
arrears or in foreclosure. One in five mortgages exceeds the
value of the home it was used to purchase.
The financial sector’s debts grew even faster as banks
sought to bolster their returns on equity by “levering up”.
According to one recent estimate, the total leverage ratios
(on- and off-book assets and exposure divided by tangible
equity) for the two biggest US banks were 88:1 for Citibank
and 134:1 for Bank of America. The bursting of the property
bubble caused such ratios, which were already too high on
the eve of the crisis, to explode as off-balance-sheet
commitments and pre-arranged credit lines came home to
roost. Only by borrowing from the Federal Reserve on an
unprecedented scale have the banks been able to stay in
business
9
21December 2008
With estimates of total losses on risky assets now ranging
from USD 2,800bn (£1,850bn, €1,960bn) to USD 6,000bn, a
chain reaction is under way that will leave no sector of the
world economy untouched. The American economy is
contracting at an annualised rate of 5 per cent. Commercial
property is following the residential market into freefall. The
Standard & Poor’s 500 index is down 43 per cent since its
peak in October last year. The market for credit default
swaps is pointing to a surge in defaults on corporate bonds.
The automotive industry is already (against the will of
Congress and the original intention of the Treasury) on life
support. The US is at the centre of the crisis but Europe and
Japan may suffer even larger aftershocks. As for the much
feted emerging market “Brics” – Brazil, Russia, India and
China – their stock markets have been dropping like, well,
bricks.
What makes this crisis of burning interest to financial
historians is the knowledge that we are witnessing a real-
time experiment with not one but two theories about the
Depression.
On one side, Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman, is applying the
lesson of Milton Friedman’s and Anna Schwartz’s A
Monetary History of the United States, which argued that the
Depression was in large measure the fault of the central
bank for failing to inject liquidity into an imploding financial
system. Mr Bernanke has not merely slashed the federal
funds rate to below 0.25 per cent. He has lent freely to the
banks against undisclosed but probably toxic collateral. Now
he is buying securities in the open market.
The result has been an explosion of the Fed’s balance sheet
and of the monetary base. With assets approaching USD
2,263bn and capital of less than USD 40bn, the Fed
increasingly resembles a public hedge fund, leveraged at
more than 50:1.
How fallow years led to a golden jubilee
_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
Every seven years, God told Moses, the children of Israel
should neither sow their fields nor prune their vineyards – a
kind of self-imposed recession. After seven such sabbatical
years, the trumpet of jubilee should be sounded: “And ye
shall hallow the fiftieth year, and proclaim liberty throughout
all the land unto all the inhabitants thereof: it shall be a
jubilee unto you; and ye shall return every man unto his
possession.”
Land that had been sold was to be redeemed or returned to
the original seller and the poor were to be relieved: “If thy
brother be waxen poor, and hath sold away some of his
possession, and if any of his kin come to redeem it, then
shall he redeem that which his brother sold ... If thy brother
be waxen poor ... then shalt thou relieve him: yea, though he
be a stranger ... Take thou no usury of him ...” In addition,
Jews who were slaves were to be set free.
To modern eyes, however, the most striking of these divine
injunctions was that debts were to be cancelled as part of
“the Lord’s release”.
On the other side, Mr Paulson has emerged as an unwitting
disciple of Keynes, running a huge government deficit in an
effort not merely to bail out the financial sector but also to
provide a public sector substitute for sharply falling private
sector consumption. Even before President-elect Barack
Obama launches his promised infrastructure investment
programme, estimates of next year’s deficit run as high as
12.5 per cent.
Once, monetarism and Keynesianism were considered
mutually exclusive economic theories. So severe is this crisis
that governments all over the world are trying both
simultaneously.
Although commentators like to draw parallels with Franklin
Roosevelt’s New Deal, in truth the measures taken since the
crisis began in August 2007 more closely resemble those
taken during the world wars. After 1914, and again after
1939, there was massive government intervention in the
financial system. Banks and bond markets were reduced to
mere channels for the financing of huge public sector deficits.
That is what is happening today, but without the stimulus to
manufacturing that the world wars provided. We are having
war finance without the war itself.
Yet the effect of these policies is essentially to add a new
layer of public debt to the existing debt mountain. Added
together, the loans, investments and guarantees made by
the Fed and the Treasury in the past year total about USD
7,800bn, compared with a pre-crisis federal debt of about
USD 10,000bn. The Treasury may have to issue as much as
USD 2,200bn in new debt in the coming year.
For the time being, the distress-driven demand for dollars
and risk-free assets is pushing down the cost of all this
borrowing. Treasury yields are at historic lows. But it is not
without significance that the cost of insuring against a US
government default has risen 25-fold in little over a year. At
some point, with most big economies adopting the same
fiscal policy, global bond markets are going to start choking.
Is it really plausible that the cure for excessive leverage in
the private sector is excessive leverage in the public sector?
Might there not be a simpler way forward? When economists
10
21December 2008 AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
talk about “deleveraging” they usually have in mind a rather
slow process whereby companies and households increase
their savings in order to pay off debt. But the paradox of thrift
means that a concerted effort along these lines will drive an
economy such as that of the US deeper into recession,
raising debt-to-income ratios.

The alternative must surely be a more radical reduction of

debt. Historically, such reductions have been done in one of
four ways: outright default, restructuring (for instance,
bankruptcy), inflation or conversion. At the moment, more
and more American households are choosing the first as a
way of dealing with the problem of negative equity, while
more and more companies are being driven towards
bankruptcy. But mass foreclosures and bankruptcies are not
a pretty prospect.

Inflation, by contrast, is hard to worry about in the short term,

not least because the Fed’s expansion of the monetary base
is leading to no commensurate expansion of the broad
money supply; the banks would rather shrink than expand
their balance sheets.

That leaves conversion, whereby, for example, all existing

mortgage debts could be wholly or partly converted into long-
term, low and fixed-interest loans, as recently suggested by
Harvard’s Martin Feldstein. (In his scheme, the government
would offer any homeowner with a mortgage the option to
replace 20 per cent of the mortgage with a low-interest loan
from the government, subject to a maximum of USD 80,000.
The annual interest rate could be as low as 2 per cent and
the loan would be amortised over 30 years.

At the very least, this would rescue many homeowners from

the nightmare of negative equity. A similar operation might
also be contemplated for the debts of those banks that have
been partially or wholly recapitalised by the state. This would
not add to the federal debt in net terms and would reduce the
interest burden, if not the absolute debt burden, of
households.

Such radical steps would naturally represent a haircut for

creditors, notably the holders of mortgage-backed securities
and bank bonds. Yet they would surely be preferable to the
alternatives. And they would certainly be a less extreme
solution than the general debt cancellation envisaged in the
Old Testament.

Financially, 2008 has been an annus horribilis. The answer

may be to make 2009 a true jubilee year.”

The writer is a professor at Harvard University and Harvard

Business School, a fellow of Jesus College, Oxford, and a
senior fellow of the Hoover Institution, Stanford

The article can also be found at:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/85432b32-cd32-11dd-9905-
000077b07658.html

_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update 11
21December 2008 AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
Stock Market Weekly
DSE performance: 52 weeks
weeks Market news

• Janata Bank intends to take BDT 900 premium in its

proposed IPO

• Citi Bank, NA to launch custodian service in

Bangladesh

DSE performance: 30 days Regional

Regional stock market performance (last week)

Market summary Valuation snapshot

_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update 12
21December 2008 AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
Weekly Stock Market Commentary

The DGEN ended the week down 1%, with average daily turnover down 27% from pre Eid trading.

With the exception of 2007, historically trading after Eid ul Adha has generally slowed with trading volumes dropping sharply as
investors extend their breaks.

This month is littered with government holidays – the exchanges were closed for Eid for one week, followed by Victory Day last
week, with Christmas Day this coming week, and Election Day and New Years Eve the following week. The country tends to take
accrued leave during this period. Business and stock market activity has slowed.

There has been much speculation about market reaction after the elections. In previous Weeklies we have discussed as the
Election approaches and we move to a political government there would potentially be a flight of capital out of the market. The 2007
bull run which saw the DSE rise 87% was believed to be in part due to the flight of ‘black money’ into the market, as the caretaker
embarked on its anti corruption drive. Investors do not need to show the sources of capital in the stock market compared to other
assets such as real estate. We expect there may be liquidations in holdings over the coming months as the business community
turn their attention back to new investments.

However as current market sentiment suggests there may be an initial rise in the market after the election, as investors gain some
confidence. We have only been able obtain data from the DSE covering the last election in 2001 which saw a sharp rise in the
market.

_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update 13
21December 2008 AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
While most sectors were down, Fuel and Power stood out with a 4.8% rise. We believe this reflects investor sentiment after the two
leading parties, the Awami League and BNP published their election manifestos both prioritizing the need for immediate action to
alleviate the country’s Energy shortages. (as discussed on page 5)

We have highlighted the key movers in the Fuel and Power Sector:

Summit Power Company – a 20% rise in the week -both AL and BNP promised to
increase power generation if they would be elected. Increasing power generation
means allowing more IPPs to come into operation - this is likely to benefit the
country’s leading operator of power plants.

Power Grid - up 10% - more power generation means more transmission revenues.
Power Grid is the only state owned transmission company in the country.

Desco – up 9% - transmitted power is distributed to the end consumers through

distribution companies. DESCO is one of the major distribution companies which
covers part of Dhaka city.

Jamuna Oil, Padma Oil and Megna Oil – all up – with the price of oil continuing to fall
in international markets, couple with the government announcing that they will cut
local petrol prices this week, it is expected that consumption of petroleum products
will rise. The revenues of the three oil distribution rise in line with consumption

Titas Gas – fell 2% - While the political parties promised to increase exploration activities and gas production, the fall in Titas is likely
th
to be a function of its record date recently passing on 15 December, with its price falling. We expect Titas to rebound this week.

And the final three companies is this sector: BOC has little co-relation with the fuel and power sector as its’ main product lines are
industrial gases, medical oxygen and welding electrodes. Eastern Lubricant is the only government owned lubricant blending
company in the country. BD Welding is a welding electrodes and industrial gases manufacturing company .

_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update 14
21December 2008 AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
Stock Market News

Janata Bank to take BDT 900 premium for shares

The Daily Star, Thursday 18 December, 2008

Janata bank is at its final stage of issuing shares at a

nominal value of BDT 100 (USD 1.5) each at a subscription
price of BDT 1,000 (USD 14.5). The difference of BDT 900
(USD 13) will go to the share premium account.

Janata Bank is the second state-owned commercial bank to

be listed with the country's stock market, after Rupali Bank.
Rupali was listed with the stock market in 1986 as part of its
privatisation process recommended by the World Bank.
Bangladesh's capital market is dominated by the presence of
financial institutions and presently shares of some 46 private
commercial banks are being traded on both Dhaka and
Chittagong stock exchanges.

According to sources in the finance ministry, the other two

state-owned banks, Sonali and Agrani, will also be listed in
the country’s stock exchanges soon.

The Investment Corporation of Bangladesh (ICB), licensed

as an issue manager, will deal with the IPO of Janata Bank.

Janata Bank has BDT 80bn (USD 1.2bn) in authorized

capital and BDT 25.9bn (USD 0.37bn) in paid-up capital. At
the end of June, total deposits of Janata Bank were BDT
2,027.9bn (USD 29.4bn) and total advances were BDT
1,327.8bn (USD 19.3bn). Classified loans and advances
stood at BDT 202.7bn (USD 2.9bn). The return on
investment (ROI) and return on assets (ROA) were 6.5% and
2.4%, respectively.

Janata Bank, which was nationalized as per the Bangladesh

Bank (Nationalization) Order 1972 immediately after the
country's independence, has 849 branches including four
overseas branches in UAE. It is affiliated with 1,202 foreign
correspondents all over the world and 42 exchange houses.

http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=67486

Citibank NA launches direct custody and clearing services

Financial Express, Thursday 18 December, 2008

Citibank, N A formally launched its Direct Custody and

Clearing (DCC) services in Bangladesh on Monday. Citibank
will be able to channel more portfolio investments into the
country’s growing securities market through this service.

Under the scheme, Citibank will provide direct custody and

clearing services such as equity and fixed income securities
settlements, safekeeping, pre-matching, registration
corporate actions, income collection, proxy services, cash
management, foreign exchange, reporting, market expertise
and information services to its clients.

Through the initiative, Bangladesh has joined the world's

largest proprietary direct custody and clearing network-
spread across 54 countries where the same service is
offered by Citigroup.

http://www.thefinancialexpress-
bd.info/search_index.php?page=detail_news&news_id=53434

_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update 15
21December 2008 AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
DGEN Performance YTD DGEN Performance LTM

Turnover leaders Best performers* Worst performers*

(All figures in mn) BDT USD % Change % Change
ACI Formulations Ltd 1064 15.5 BEXIMCO 32.5 Islami Bank -91.2
Beximco Pharma 770 11.2 ACI Formulations 28.9 Arbee Textiles -90.3
Titas Gas 624 9.1 ACI Ltd 25.7 Metro Spinning -23.3
Beximco Pharma 612 8.9 Renewick Jajneswar 20.5 Aftab Automobiles -20.1
Uttara Bank 587 8.5 Shinepukur Ceramics 19.7 Quashem Textiles -14.3
ACI Ltd 426 6.2 Bangladesh Online 17.7 Al_Amin Chemicals -11.1
Shinepukur Ceramics Ltd. 426 6.2 Beximco Pharma 16.9 DESCO -9.9
NBL 211 3.1 BEXTEX Ltd 16.9 Bengal Fine Ceramics -9.8
Grameen One: Scheme 2 196 2.8 Summit Alliance 15.0 National Polymar -9.5
Islami Bank 182 2.6 Dhaka Fisheries 14.4 BD Dyeing -9.1
Source: Dhaka Stock Exchange
*By closing price
Source: Dhaka Stock Exchange
Market cap. by sector*
Banks 49.8%
Fuel & Power 14.5%
Correlation with other indices*
Pharmaceuticals 10.4%
S&P NIKKEI KSE FTSE
Insurance 6.3% 500 Sensex 225 100 SSECI 100 HangSeng DSE
Cement 5.4% S&P500 1
Miscellaneous 3.4% Sensex 0.49 1
Engineering 2.6% NIKKEI225 0.40 0.50 1
Foods 2.3% KSE100 0.13 0.31 0.10 1
Textile 1.9% SSECI 0.28 0.41 0.22 0.04 1
Tannery 1.3% FTSE100 0.81 0.48 0.41 0.21 0.38 1
Service & Real Estate 1.3% Hangseng 0.65 0.58 0.46 0.09 0.50 0.73 1
IT 0.5% DSE 0.10 0.14 0.09 0.06 0.03 0.13 0.11 1
Ceramics 0.1% * Based on the last 80 months’ USD returns
Paper & Printing 0.1% Source: AT Capital Research

Jute 0.03%
Total 100%
*As of September 30, 2008

Research Team

Ifty Islam Syeed Khan

Managing Partner Partner
ifty.islam@at-capital.com syeed.khan@at-capital.com

Zia Shams Rashed Hasan

Senior Research Associate Research Associate
zia.shams@at-capital.com rashed.hasan@at-capital.com
_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update 16
21December 2008 AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
Economics

Selected macroeconomic indicators Market news

15-
15-Dec-
Dec-
15-
15-Dec-
Dec-07 2-Dec-
Dec-08
08
Forex reserves (USD mn) 5,338.60 5,384.31 5,561.80 • Foreign aid worth USD 2.14bn likely this fiscal year
USD-BDT average rate 68.6089 68.8556 68.8897
Call money rate 10.43 8.85 9.75 • Slight cut in domestic oil prices this week

• Major credit crunch unlikely in Bangladesh

P
Nov-
Nov-07 Nov-
Nov-08 2007-
2007-08
Remittances (USD mn) 617.39 767.35 7,914.78
• Don't shut migrant workers out: Rights organizations urge
rich countries
Annual %age change 3.12 24.29 32.39
• Taka depreciated by 0.58pc against USD in two months
P
Sep-
Sep-07 Sep-
Sep-08 2007-
2007-08
• BB asks banks to cut remittance costs
Imports (USD mn) 1,651.60 2,168.70 21,629.00
Annual %age change 29.54 31.31 26.07 • BB strengthens intervention in forex market

P
Sep-
Sep-07 Sep-
Sep-08 2007-
2007-08
Exports (USD mn) 1,044.29 1,477.60 14,110.80
Annual %age change 9.92 41.49 15.87

P
Sep-
Sep-07 Sep-
Sep-08 2007-
2007-08 Aid Disbursements in Q1 FY09 compared to Q1 FY08
Current A/C Balance (USD mn) 20.00 46.00 672.00

R R
Oct-
Oct-07 Oct-
Oct-08 2007-
2007-08
Tax revenue (USD mn) 472.17 504.76 6,868.43
Annual %age change 29.88 6.90 27.06

Source: Selected indicators by Bangladesh Bank, 17 December 2008

Latest Bangladesh Inflation Rates

August September October

General 207.27 210.14 209.31
Inflation 10.11 10.19 7.26
Food 223.77 227.66 226.88
Inflation 12.36 12.07 8.08
Source: Bangladesh Bank
Non-food 185.72 187.10 186.13
Inflation 6.55 7.19 5.95
Source: Bangladesh Bank
Jisha Sarwar
Senior Research Associate
Jisha.sarwar@at-capital.com

_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update 17
21December 2008
Economic News
Foreign aid worth USD 2.14bn
2.14bn likely this fiscal year
Financial Express, Sunday December 21st, 2008
Bangladesh is expected to receive more than USD 2.0bn in
donor funds this fiscal year.
"An estimated USD 2.14bn worth of foreign assistance is to
be available for the current fiscal," a senior Economic
Relations Division (ERD) official said, adding that it would be
the highest amount of donor funding received by
Bangladesh. Foreign donors have already pledged
assistance amounting to around USD 3.0bn for Bangladesh
for FY 09.
Foreign aid also rose significantly in FY 08, mainly for post-
Sidr rehabilitation purposes - Bangladesh received foreign
assistance of around USD 2.08bn in FY 08.
http://www.thefinancialexpress-bd.info/2008/12/21/53748.html
Slight cut in domestic oil prices this week
Financial Express, Sunday December 21st, 2008
The government is expected to cut domestic oil prices at a
range of between two to five taka per litre within this week,
corresponding with a dramatic fall in oil prices in the
international market.
Experts, however, said the move to cut prices in the local
market at the proposed margin would not be realistic
compared to the current drastic fall in the international
market.
Crude petroleum is currently trading at a five-year record low
of USD 34 per barrel in the international market.
The last price adjustment in Bangladesh was done on
October 27th, when the government reduced prices of fuel
oils by nearly 11.7% on average, driven by a substantial fall
in prices in the international market.
http://www.thefinancialexpress-
bd.info/2008/12/21/53746.html
Major credit crunch unlikely in Bangladesh
Financial Express, Saturday December 20th, 2008
The external shocks stemming from the global financial crisis
are unlikely to create a major credit crunch in Bangladesh as
the country's financial exposure remains low, according to
the World Bank.
The World Bank stated that Bangladesh’s resilience is due to
its relative insulation from international capital markets and a
paltry foreign portfolio investment. An area of concern is
remittance inflow as the oil-rich Gulf economies, which
account for around 63% of the country's total remittances,
are badly affected by the crisis.
"Unlike the global financial institutions, Bangladeshi banks
have no exotic or toxic derivative engagements. The off-
balance sheet items are mostly very basic swap contracts,
which should not create any significant unexpected losses,"
according to the Bank's preliminary assessment of the
financial sector effects.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
The Bank stated that the foreign exchange reserves of
Bangladesh Bank and commercial banks have limited
exposure to the securities markets of the United States and
European Union nations. Furthermore, the country has a
largely closed capital account, and capital flows are in the
form of soft loans and foreign direct investment.
As of September 2008, Bangladesh Bank's foreign exchange
reserves amounted to USD 5.8bn. In financial year 2008, the
country's net foreign financing, mostly concessional
borrowing from multilateral lenders, totaled USD 1.75bn,
while foreign direct investment was USD 650mn, accounting
for only 0.8% of GDP.
Don't shut migrant workers out:
out: Rights organizations urge
rich countries
The Daily Star, Saturday December 20th, 2008
Both local and international rights organizations emphasized
the positive contributions that migrant workers make towards
economic growth, as millions of migrant workers face layoffs
around the world.
The International Labour Organisation revealed a forecast,
pointing to worsening conditions for migrant workers due to
the global financial crisis.
"Although the economic crisis is still unfolding and its full
impact remains unclear, it should be counterproductive for
governments in developed countries to close their doors to
migrants," the International Organisation for Migration (IOM)
stated.
Economic woes are dragging down remittances. The World
Bank now estimates that remittances to developing countries
in 2009 will be less than USD 283bn.
According to the World Bank, in the worst case scenario, in
FY 09 Bangladesh may receive only USD 8.9bn in
remittances, down from the initial target of USD 10bn,
creating pressure on foreign exchange reserves.
"Closing doors will undoubtedly encourage migrants to use
the exploitative, abusive and often life-threatening back
entrance into destination countries offered by human
smugglers and traffickers," said IOM Director General
William Lacy Swing.
Rights activists emphasized the need to undertake massive
skill building programmes in Bangladesh to develop skilled
manpower, as required by the manpower importing
countries, and start international advocacy to reduce the
costs of migration.
18
21December 2008 AT CAPITAL RESEARCH

http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=67288

Taka depreciated by 0.58%

0.58% against USD in two months
The Daily Star, Tuesday December 16th, 2008

Bangladesh taka (BDT) has been depreciated marginally by

0.58% against the US dollar, following a rise in demand for
the greenback.

The depreciation of BDT started from October 19 following

an increase in demand for the US currency in the inter-bank
foreign exchange market to settle import payment bills for
petroleum products, fertilizers and food grains.
th
On October 19 the US dollar was quoted at BDT 68.52-
BDT 68.54 in the inter-bank foreign exchange market against
BDT 68.52 on the previous working day.

US dollar was traded at BDT 68.88- BDT 68.92 in the foreign

exchange market on Monday compared to BDT 68.88 the
previous working day.

http://www.thefinancialexpress-
bd.info/search_index.php?page=detail_news&news_id=53398

BB strengthens intervention in forex market

The Financial Express, Tuesday December 16th, 2008

The Bangladesh Bank (BB) has strengthened its intervention

in the foreign exchange market by providing support to
commercial banks for settlement of fuel oil import bills. The
central bank took the initiative aiming to keep the country's
inter-bank foreign exchange market stable.

As part of the operation, the BB provided overdraft (OD)

facilities for USD 40mn to a state-owned commercial bank
(SCB) for settlement of its petroleum products’ import bills.
BB also sold USD 14mn at the market rate directly to a SCB
and a foreign commercial bank to meet the growing demand
for the greenback.

Import of petroleum products rose sharply by 56.6% to USD

923.03mn during the first quarter of the current fiscal year
compared to USD 578.31mn during the same period of the
previous fiscal year, according to central bank statistics.

http://www.thefinancialexpress-
bd.info/search_index.php?page=detail_news&news_id=53405

_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update 19
 21December 2008
Sector News
Agriculture
Agriculture
Maize seed firms fear slump in sales
The Daily Star, Sunday, December 21, 2008
Maize seed sales may decline significantly, as farmers are
reluctant to grow the crop because of low prices resulting
from the shutdown of thousands of poultry farms due to an
outbreak of the bird flu since early last year. A government
restriction on maize export and high fertilizer prices have also
been blamed for the low demand for maize.
Maize cultivation is expected to decline for the first time in
Bangladesh after increasing gradually since late the 1990s.
According to the Department of Agricultural Extension, total
production of maize hit a record high of over 2mn tonnes
during the last crop season, up from about 1.2mn tonnes in
the previous season. The price of maize had been increasing
in the global market since 2006. According to World Bank
data, maize price per tonne hit its highest in Q4 FY 08, and
then started declining due to the economic meltdown in
developed economies. In November, the average price of
maize per tonne stood at USD 163.8, down from USD 183.1
in October.
In the local market, each maund of maize (dry) is being sold
at between BDT 450 (USD 6.53) and BDT 460 (USD 6.67),
which is lower than the minimum price of BDT 520 (USD
7.55) a maund, fixed by the government in August.
http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news-details.php?nid=68002
Fall in
in rice prices likely to discourage farmers from achieving
Boro11 target
The Financial Express, Sunday, December 21, 2008
Falling prices of rice in international and local markets might
discourage farmers in allocating more areas for Boro
cultivation, which could lead to a lower production target in
the current season. The production target of Boro, the
country's single largest crop accounting for almost 60% of
annual food grain yield, has been targeted at 18.01mn
tonnes for the current season ending in April, 2009. Quoting
the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), the quarterly
food situation report stated that Boro cultivation area might
decrease slightly, hampering the target. In the last cropping
season, local farmers, encouraged by a record price hike of
rice globally, cultivated Boro on about 4.6mn ha of land, up
by 8.2% from the previous season, which helped them
surpass the target. The quarterly report also stated that rice
prices started declining from its peak in April due to bumper
Boro harvest and a fall in prices in the international market.
In the coming months, international rice prices are expected
to fall further, especially if wheat prices continue to fall,
added the report.
The report also stated that the total area under cultivation will
increase for Aman rice and wheat by 0.31mn and 0.03 mn
ha, respectively, while area for Aus rice will be reduced by
0.03mn hectares.
11
Most important and scientifically developed rice crop of Bangladesh
_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
http://www.thefinancialexpress-bd.info/2008/12/21/53742.html
Banking
BB asks banks to cut remittance costs
The Daily Star, Tuesday December 16th, 2008
On Monday the Bangladesh Bank (BB) instructed banks to
take measures to reduce the time and cost of transferring
remittances, as about 40% of remittances flow in from
abroad through informal channels, locally known as hundi.
BB Governor, Salehuddin Ahmed, held a meeting with
representatives from the ministries of finance, foreign affairs
and expatriates welfare and eight banks, in order to find
ways to increase remittance inflows in the face of the global
economic crisis, and direct the money through legal
channels.
In FY 08, remittance inflow was USD 7.9bn. In the last five
months of the current year, Bangladesh has received USD
3.75bn in remittances, which means that monthly average
inflow is USD 700mn.
The central bank stated that remittance inflows to
Bangladesh did not fall yet, despite the world financial
meltdown.
Four measures to increase remittance inflows were
discussed during the meeting: cutting down time and costs of
transferring remittances, bringing remittances through legal
channels, creating opportunities for investment of remitted
money and welfare of expatriates.
A report presented at the meeting stated that about 40% of
remittances flowing into the country were through informal
channels.
BB advised banks and exchange houses to be competitive
and cut costs of transferring remittances, especially in cases
of small transactions.
Bankers said costs of remitting funds have already come
down and are expected to decline further.
The central bank asked banks to create small instruments for
small savers. BB directed the bank branches or exchange
houses overseas to keep their organizations open on
holidays to help expatriates remit funds.
http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=67288
Infrastructure & Energy
Chevron to launch seismic survey in Block 7 from January
January
The Financial Express, Sunday December 21, 2008
US-based Chevron Bangladesh will start its seismic survey in
Block 7 in the first week of January to explore potential gas
reserves and initiate subsequent explorations. The company will
continue the two-dimensional (2D) survey until mid 2009 in the
block that covers the south-western districts of Barisal, Patuakhali,
Jhalakathi and Pirojpur. Further development work in the field,
20
21December 2008
such as exploration of hydrocarbon, would depend on the findings
of the seismic survey.
Chevron has already relinquished 25% of the exploration
acreage of Block 7 to Petrobangla in accordance with the
PSC. The project entails 450km of two-dimensional seismic
data acquisition.
http://www.thefinancialexpress-
bd.info/search_index.php?page=detail_news&news_id=53766
Fund shortage to affect implementation of eight power plants
The Financial Express, Saturday December 20, 2008
The implementation of eight big power plants, planned to be
built by the next three years, is expected to face obstacles as
the funds proposed for the projects are much lower than the
required amount. The government has proposed to give BDT
38bn (USD 551.5mn) to the power division in order to carry
out the entire generation, transmission and distribution work
in the next financial year (2009-10) under the medium term
budgetary framework (MTBF) mechanism. But according to a
planning commission official, implementation of the eight
power generation projects in the pipeline alone would require
more than BDT 40.50bn (USD 587.81mn) during 2009-10.
Seven of the eight power plants in the pipeline will add
1290MW of electricity by FY 2012 and the remaining one will
add 360MW by FY 2014. Daily demand for electricity in
Bangladesh is over 5000MW. In Bangladesh, all the power
units combined generate only 3400MW to 3700MW of power
per day. Following the severe electricity crisis, the present
caretaker government took an initiative to generate more
power and prepared a short to mid-term power development
plan. Under the plan, 5,875MW of electricity generation is
targeted by FY 2012.
http://www.thefinancialexpress-
bd.info/search_index.php?page=detail_news&news_id=53632
IDB to increase fixed interest rate on loan for fuel oil
New Age, Thursday December 18, 2008
The Islamic Development Bank (IDB) has decided to
increase the fixed interest rate by around 1% for bank loans
for fuel oil import. The IDB, which provides the government
with around USD 1 to 1.2bn annually to import fuel oils,
recently asked the government to increase the interest rate
to LIBOR [London Interbank Offered Rate] plus 2.75% from
December 29th, the beginning of the new Hijri year (Islamic
calendar year). For the last one year, IDB has been charging
a rate of LIBOR plus 1.75%.
The IDB provides a majority of the funds for the Bangladesh
Petroleum Corporation, which annually imports around
3.8mn tonnes of fuel oil such as diesel, kerosene, octane, jet
fuel and crude oils.
http://www.newagebd.com/2008/dec/18/nat.html#1
Five local companie
companies
mpanies selected to bid for power supply
system of 3 islands
New Age, Wednesday December 13, 2008
_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
Five local private companies have been selected by the
government to participate in the bidding process for taking
over electricity generation, transmission and distribution
systems of three islands — Hatiya, Sandwip and Kutubdia.
The chosen investors will take over the existing power supply
systems in the islands which are not connected with the
national power grid, and will install necessary power plants,
transmission lines and distribution systems to supply power.
For Hatiya in Noakhali, four companies — Association of KEL,
GBB, Navana and Global have been pre-qualified for
participating in the final bidding, which is expected to be held
in February 2009. Energypac, along with GBB and
Association of KEL, were pre-qualified for Sandwip and
Kutubdia.
The selected bidders will install fuel oil-based or renewable
energy-based power plants to supply electricity to
consumers. The interim government in March 2007 approved
the RAPSS guidelines to allow private sector investors to
take over electricity distribution systems and set up mini-
power plants in 15 remote areas, which were not connected
to the national grid. However, it has been debated by some
power officials that handing over power supply systems to
private companies might cause consumers in the rural
islands to pay higher prices for electricity.
http://www.newagebd.com/2008/dec/17/front.html#12
New industries in Chittagong start getting gas from early
early
December
The Financial Express, Sunday December 14, 2008
Gas is finally being supplied from December to new factories
in the fuel-starved Chittagong region after suspension for
over a year. Around 40 new factories are waiting to get new
gas connections from this month.
An increase of gas production from two wells in the
Bakhrabad gas field and the fall in demand for gas
corresponding with the winter season has facilitated the new
gas connections to Chittagong industrial units.
The Chittagong region has been undergoing a severe gas
supply crisis for several years due to the unusual decline in
production in the country's only offshore Sangu gas field. The
Scottish Cairn-operated Sangu gas field is now supplying
around 34 million cubic feet (mmcf) of gas per day,
compared to around 172mmcfd during 2006.
http://www.thefinancialexpress-
bd.info/search_index.php?page=detail_news&news_id=53224
Leather Goods
Goods
Leather exports may suffer slump
The Daily Star, Thursday, December 18, 2008
Leather exports are expected to drop by 25% this year,
influenced by a slump in demand in international markets,
despite higher collection of rawhide. Owing to the global
financial crisis, demand for finished leather and leather
goods has declined in international markets. The industry is
expected to be hit badly this year, as exports of finished
leather have already dropped by 20% in the first quarter of
the current fiscal year. Prices of finished leather and leather
products may drop by up to 40% this fiscal year.
21
21December 2008
The price of per square foot of finished leather declined from
USD 4.70 to USD 4.20 in the last two months. The price of
finished leather was USD 4.95 per square foot in FY 07,
which declined to USD 4.70 last fiscal year, according to
Bangladesh Bank data.
http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=67573
Pharmaceuticals
Popular Pharma to enter Nigeria
Nigeria market
The Daily Star, Thursday 18 December, 2008
Popular Pharmaceuticals Ltd signed an agreement to export
formulations to Generic Global Ltd, Nigeria. An audit team
from the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration
and Control (NAFDAC), Nigeria, who visited the plants of
Popular, expressed its satisfaction at the medicines
manufactured there. Popular Pharmaceuticals Ltd and
Popular Infusions Ltd are expecting registration for eighteen
specialized formulations within the next couple of months.
AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
Textiles
RMG exports to US faring fine
The Daily Star, Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Export of readymade garments (RMG) to USA, one of the
major export destinations for Bangladeshi apparels, will
maintain its previous growth rate in October as sales of low-
end products are still high. Although the Export Promotion
Bureau (EPB) is yet to publish its monthly export figures for
October, industry insiders have stated that exports of
trousers and sweaters will be higher this month compared to
previous months. According to industry experts, export of
apparel items in November will be better compared to the
same period last fiscal year. Although exports may slow in
December due to sluggish production, apparel export is
expected to gain momentum from January, as the factories
are now busy with making products to be shipped for the next
season (summer).
According to statistics from the BGMEA and USITC (United
States International Trade Commission), apparel exports to

Popular Pharmaceuticals brands are expected to be

available in Yemen from early 2009 as Yemen Supreme
Board of Drugs and Medical Appliances of the Ministry of
Public Health carried out an audit from October 20 to
October 26, 2008 and approved the medicines manufactured
by Popular Pharmaceuticals. Currently, the company exports
to Kenya, Sri Lanka, Macau, Somalia and Afghanistan.

http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news-
details.php?nid=67592

Telecoms
Telecoms

WiMax bidders in 'double bind'

The Daily Star, Tuesday December 16, 2008
The BDT 2150mn (USD 31mn) bid price for each WiMax
license acquisition has become a 'double bind' for the
telecoms regulator, as a majority of the seven bidders are
now reluctant to buy the license at such a price. Three
bidders -- BanglaLion Communication, BRAC BD Mail
Network Ltd and Augere Wireless Broadband Bangladesh
Ltd -- won the WiMax licenses through an auction organized
by Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission
(BTRC) in September this year.
USA from Bangladesh increased by 28.7% in the first quarter
of the current fiscal year. The BGMEA data showed that in
the first quarter (July-September) of the current fiscal year a
total of USD 774.3mn worth trousers were exported from
Bangladesh, compared to USD 2.51bn in Q1 FY 08.
Sweaters worth USD 741.87mn were exported in Q1 FY 09,
compared to USD 1.47bn in Q1 FY 08.
http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news-details.php?nid=67485

However, since BRAC declined to acquire the licence, BTRC

invited the fourth highest bidder-Btel to buy the licence. But
Btel, and also other bidders including Bangladesh Internet
Access and Packet One, refused to take the expensive
licence.

Resultantly, BTRC asked the seventh highest bidder -Mango

Telecom-to become a WiMAX operator. Mango is yet to
respond to this proposal. Industry insiders said the foreign
equity partners of the local WiMax bidders are disinclined to
invest in the sector as they say the high auction price is not
viable in a market like Bangladesh.

http://www.thedailystar.net/story.php?nid=67291

_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update 22
21December 2008 AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
Appendices

Awami League Manifesto

Considering the existing politico-socio-economic crisis, five subjects have been given priority:

Five Priority Issues

1. In The Face Of Global Financial Crisis, Maintenance Of Economic Stability And Control Over Commodity Price Hike
i. Commodity Price Hike: Measures will be taken to reduce the unbearable burden of price hike and keep it in tune with the
purchasing power of the people. After giving the highest priority to the production of domestic commodities, arrangements will be
made for timely import to ensure food security. A multi-prong drive will be made to control prices along with monitoring the market.
Hoarding and profiteering syndicates will be eliminated. Extortion will be stopped. An institution for commodity price control and
consumer protection will be set up. Above all, price reduction and stability will be achieved by bringing equilibrium between demand
and supply of commodities.
ii. Global Financial Crisis: It is necessary to urgently form a task force which will devise a policy to save Bangladesh from global
meltdown, develop a comprehensive information center, continually monitor national and global situations and provide prompt
advice to help take necessary decisions. Necessary steps would be taken for investment promotion, energy security, retaining and
enhancing domestic demand, safeguarding value of money, assisting exports and continuing export of manpower.

2. Effective Action against Corruption: Multi-pronged measures to fight corruption will be put into place. Powerful people will have to
submit wealth statement annually. Strict measures will be taken to eliminate bribe, extortion, rent seeking and corruption. Strong
measures will be taken against those having unearned and black money, against loan defaulters, tender manipulators, and users of
muscle power in every stage of state and society. State or private monopoly will be broken up. Discretionary power of officials will
be curtailed. To establish peoples' right, citizens’ charter will be introduced in every department. Opportunities for corruption will be
eliminated or minimized through widespread computerization.

3. Power and Energy:

i. A comprehensive long term policy on electricity and energy will be adopted. Economic usage of oil, gas, coal, hydro power, wind
power and solar energy will be ensured. Big and small power generation stations, coal extraction, and oil and gas exploration will be
given priority. Under a three year crash program quick implementation of ongoing and under consideration power generation
stations, import of electricity from neighboring countries, arranging 100/150 megawatt gas turbine projects on urgent basis, and the
reactivation of the past AL initiatives for constructing 10, 20 and 30 megawatt power stations will be undertaken. A schedule for
repair, maintenance and overhauling or salvaging of old power stations will be made to increase and stabilize power production.
Supply of gas and LPG will be increased. The Rooppur Nuclear Power Project will be implemented.
In the next three years or by 2011 power production will be increased to 5000 megawatt and by 2013 it will be further increased to
7000 megawatt.
ii. Priority will be given to exploration and exploitation of oil and new gas fields. Arrangements will be made to supply gas in the
north and western regions of the country. Supply of gas and LPG will be significantly increased.
iii. A Coal Policy will be formulated safeguarding national interest. Special initiatives will be taken to ensure economic use of the
coal available so far and also to develop coal-based power plants. Priorities will be given to the exploration and exploitation of new
coal fields and other mineral resources.

4. Elimination of Poverty and Inequity: The following strategy and aims will be followed for socio-economic development.
i. The main strategy of poverty reduction will center on bringing vibrancy in agriculture and rural life. Social safety net will be
extended for the ultra-poor. By 2013 poverty level and proportion of ultra-poor will be brought down to 25% and 15% respectively.
At present there are 65 million poor people in the country. This number will be reduced to 45 million by 2013 and will further come
down to 22 million in 2021. In order to achieve this objective, among other steps will be the revival of previously adopted projects
such as "one house, one farm", rural housing, ideal village and returning homes. The number of recipients of old age allowance and
destitute women allowance would, at the least, be doubled. Employment Banks will encourage young entrepreneurs by supplying
necessary capital. Revision of the just formulated PRSP will be undertaken after a thorough evaluation within six months of
assuming office.
ii. Employment guidelines: A comprehensive employment guideline will be formulated aiming at poverty reduction, solving
unemployment problem and making citizens’ lives meaningful. The core components of the guidelines will be: a. creating
employment opportunities in rural economy b. providing credit and training for self-employment c. creating employment
opportunities for wage-labour in industries d. promoting sub-contracting arrangements between big and small & medium scale
industries and e. providing special training arrangements for facilitating export of labour. The number of unemployed people in the
country, estimated at 28 million, will be reduced to 24 million by 2013 and will be further reduced to 15 million by 2021.

5. Establishment of Good Governance:

i. Terrorism and religious extremism will be controlled with iron hand. Trial of war criminals will be arranged.
ii. Genuine independence and impartiality of the judiciary will be ensured. Extrajudicial killings will be stopped. The judgment of the
Bangabandhu murder case will be made effective and the retrial of jail killings will be held. Trial of real criminals responsible for the

_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update 23
21December 2008 AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
grenade attack of the 21st August, 2004 through proper investigation will be arranged. Rule of law will be established, The Human
Rights Commission will be strengthened and made effective, and an Ombudsman will be appointed. Human rights will be strictly
enforced.
iii. The on-going reform programme of the Election Commission and electoral system will continue. The Parliament will be made
effective and the government will be made accountable for all its activities. Wealth statement and source of income of the Prime
Minister, members of cabinet, Parliament members and of their family members will be made public every year. Except for some
specific subjects related to the security of the state, Parliament members will be allowed to express differing opinions.
iv. Use of religion and communalism in politics will be banned. Security and rights of religious and ethnic minorities will be ensured.
Courtesy and tolerance will be inculcated in the political culture of the country. Militancy and extortion will be banned. Awami
League will take initiative to formulate a consensual and unanimous charter of political behavior.
v. Opportunities will be created for the expatriate Bangladeshis to take part in national reconstruction and their right to franchise will
be ensured. Special initiatives will be taken to attract expatriate’s remittance in productive investment. A consultancy network will be
developed to fruitfully use expatriate’s talents.
vi. Administration will be free from politicization and will be pro-people. Efficiency, seniority and merit will be the basis of
appointment and promotion in public service. Administrative reform, right to information and e-governance will be introduced. A
permanent Pay Commission will be set up for civil servants.
vii. In order to provide security to every citizen of the country, police and other law and order enforcing agencies will be kept above
political influence. These forces will be modernized to meet the demands of the time. Necessary steps will be taken to increase their
remuneration and other welfare facilities including accommodation.
viii. Rangpur will be made a new administrative division.

6. Local Government: Union, Upazilla and District Councils will be strengthened through decentralization of power. District Councils
will be transformed into centres for implementation of programmes on education and health and all other development plans, and
programmes, and for maintenance of law and order Every union will be made the headquarter for development and administration
of the area and be developed as a planned rural township. And every Upazilla headquarter will be developed as an industrial growth
centre and a planned township.
The power and sphere of responsibility of City Corporation and municipalities will be enhanced; the standard and quality of civic
facilities will be improved.

7. Agriculture And Rural Development:

i. Our main aim is to ensure "food for all" by taking all possible measures and to make Bangladesh self-sufficient in food by 2013.
Subsidy for agricultural inputs will be enhanced and availability of inputs will be made easier. The amount of agricultural loan will be
increased and the lending procedure simplified. Incentives will be provided for development of rural warehousing. Fair price for all
crops and agricultural products will be ensured. Efforts will be made to attain self-sufficiency in the production of fish, milk, egg,
livestock and salt. Efforts will be directed to exporting surplus products after meeting domestic requirement.
ii. Loan for share croppers will be made available, employment facilities for farm labourer will be created and they will be brought
under rural rationing system.
iii. Appropriate measures to face the challenges of globalization will be taken, including developing commercial agriculture, use of
genetic engineering methods and development of nonagricultural sector in villages. In order to increase agricultural production,
special emphasis will be placed on modernization of agriculture, innovation of technology and expansion of facilities for research in
agriculture.
iv. Village development will include provision of urban facilities and distribution of Khas land among landless farmers. Efforts will be
taken to ensure that lease of khas ponds/haors is given to genuine fishermen. All land records will be computerized and a land
reform commission will be formed to ensure increased production and social justice in the distribution of land and water bodies.
v. Measures will be taken to reclaim land in the coastal areas.

8. Environment and Water Resources: An integrated policy and plan will be formulated to protect the country from the adverse
effects of global warming; to create pollution free environment and to save water resources. Projects will be undertaken for river
dredging, water conservation, flood control, prevention of river erosion and protection of forestry. Attempts will also be made for
restoring and maintaining ecological balance. Initiatives will be taken to implement the Ganges barrage project to expand irrigation
facilities, prevent salinity and to solve the problem of scarcity of sweet water in the Sundarban region.
Effective regional and international co-operation will be sought for environmental protection and development of water resources.
Modern scientific methods will be adopted to prevent water and air pollution and in the disposal of waste.

9. Commerce and Industry:

i. Short, medium and long term plans will be made and implemented for poverty reduction, efficient management for quick
industrialization that can provide employment, speedy expansion of stock market, maintenance of law & order and discipline,
elimination of bribe and corruption and administrative difficulties, avoidance of political influence, creation of an investment friendly
environment and a competitive market system, adoption of innovative technology, and provision of infrastructural facilities that are
able to attract entrepreneurs and expand domestic market.
ii. In order to encourage investment by local and foreign entrepreneurs and expatriate Bangladeshis, the ONE-STOP facility will be
made effective by simplifying legal and procedural formalities. Measures will be put in place to protect indigenous industries.
iii. Development of IT industry, strengthening of RMG and textile sectors and expansion of food processing, pharmaceuticals,
leather, chemical products, toys, jewelry and furniture industries will be given priority. Special initiative will be taken for alternative
use of jute and to make jute industry viable. Small and handicraft industries and agro-based industry will be encouraged and will be
given all cooperation in the expansion of markets at home and abroad. Expansion in tourism sector, increase in labor export, and
investment of remittance received from expatriate Bangladeshis in productive sectors will be ensured.

_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update 24
21December 2008 AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
iv. Assistance will be provided for expansion of small, medium and cottage industries. Special incentives will be given to weavers,
blacksmiths and clay potters. Weaving industry will be given protection and silk, benarasi and jamdani villages will be set up.

10. Human Resources Development

i. Education and Science: In order to ensure human resources development, the highest budgetary allocation will be given to
education, science and information technology sectors. An education policy meeting the needs of the time will be framed keeping
these in view. Net enrollment at primary level will be increased to 100% by 2011 and by 2017 the country will be rid of the curse of
illiteracy. Improvement in the quality of education, depoliticisation of educational institutions, and ensuring a higher salary scale for
teachers will be ensured. A permanent Pay Commission and a separate Service Commission will be instituted for teachers.
Education up to graduation level will be provided free of cost in phases.
ii. In order to encourage female education the opportunity for free education along with scholarship will continue.
iii. Educational institutions will be rid of terrorism and session backlogs. Science and technology education will be especially
encouraged. Madrasa education will be reoriented to develop productive skills and knowledge for the real world. Scope of science
education and research will be expanded. Particular care will be taken in cases of disadvantaged pupils.
iv. More government secondary schools will be set up in the capital in phases. The govt. secondary schools located at every district
headquarter will be developed and expanded and government. secondary schools will be established at every Upzilla headquarter
in phases.
v. Information and communication technology: The potentials of ICT sector will be realized. Software industry and IT services will be
developed by providing all possible assistance to talented young people and interested entrepreneurs. This measure will increase
export and promote employment opportunities. Our vision is to make Bangladesh digital in 2021. IT education will be made
compulsory at secondary level by 2013 and at primary level by 2021. The task force on ICT that was established during the Awami
League rule but rendered ineffective by the BNP-Jamat Alliance will be reactivated. High-tech park, software technology park, ICT
incubator and computer villages will be set up at suitable locations in the country.
vi. Welfare of the disabled: The Disabled Welfare Act passed by Awami League in 2000 will be updated and implemented. Special
steps will be taken to facilitate education, employment, movement and communication of the disabled and to enhance their social
dignity.

11. Health and Family Welfare:

i. In order to ensure health facilities to every citizen of the country, the health policy of the erstwhile Awami League government will
be reevaluated and adjusted according to the demands of the time. In the light of this policy, 18000 community clinics, established
during Awami League rule, will be commissioned. Nutrition to children and mothers' welfare will be ensured. The Population Policy
will be updated. And accordingly birth control and reproductive health care will be ensured.
ii. The arsenic problem will be tackled and measures will be taken to supply pure drinking water for all by 2011 and to provide
sanitation facility in every house by 2013.
iii. An appropriate pharmaceutical policy to bring self- sufficiency in the production of medicines of international standard and to
promote their export will be formulated. Concurrently, effective measures will be taken for education in traditional medicine and
improvement of the quality of traditional medicine.

12. Empowerment of Women and Child Welfare:

In order to ensure women’s empowerment and equality in rights and opportunities, the Women Development Policy formulated by
Awami League in 1997 will be revived. The number of reserved seats for women by direct election in the Parliament will be
increased to 100. Necessary measures will be taken for appointment of women in senior posts in the administration and in all
spheres of employment. Strictest legal measures will be taken to stop oppression of women. Discriminatory laws against the
interest of women will be rectified.

13. Welfare of Children and the Juvenile: Child labor will be gradually abolished in all sectors. Use of children in political and other
activities through coercion or enticement will be prohibited. In keeping with the UN convention on children's rights, adequate
measures will be taken for developing their physical and mental capacity and for their nutrition and entertainment.

14. Youth and Employment:

i. A comprehensive employment policy will be developed setting targets for employment enshrining i. agricultural employment, ii.
Off-farm activities in rural areas, iii. Self-employment and income generating activities, iv. Urban service employment, v. wage
employment in industry, vi. Employment in infra-structure development, vii. Employment abroad and necessary training for it and
viii. Employment of youth and students.
ii. An employment guarantee scheme will gradually be made effective to provide 100 days employment to one youth per family. All
citizens able to work will be registered. A project will be undertaken for young men and women with HSC degrees for appointment
in the "national service" for two years.
15. Communication and Infrastructure

i. Appropriate policy and project implementation will be undertaken in transport, road building, housing, and port development and
construction sectors. An extensive road network in each district will connect villages, unions, upazillas and the district headquarter.
ii. Appropriate measures will be taken to construct the Padma and Karnaphuli bridge/tunnel, Dhaka-Chittagong four- lane express
way, and expansion and modernization of the railway.
iii. Rail and road connection with neighboring countries under the Asian Rail and Highways schemes will be established.
iv. Dredging of every big and small river will be undertaken and measures will be taken to maintain their navigability throughout the
year. River routs will be improved and river transportation system will be modernized to facilitate safe and cost effective
transportation of cargo and passengers.

_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update 25
21December 2008 AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
v. Construction of deep sea ports and modernization of Chittagong and Mongla ports and opening them up to all of Asia will be
taken up.
vi. Bangladesh Biman will be restructured to enable it to operate on commercial & profitable basis. Aviation services in the private
sector will be encouraged. Modern airports of international standard will be constructed to facilitate air transportation linking
Bangladesh with the world.
vii. Telecommunication facilities will be extended upto rural villages. All Upazilas will be brought under internet communication
system in the next five years.
viii. Railway will be given importance and new rail lines will be installed as it maintains communication link with the capital and
provides cheaper transportation.
Underground railway, mono or circular rail and navigable river route around Dhaka will be constructed to the solve the public
transportation problem and traffic jam in the capital.

16. Labor Policy:

i. National labour policy will be reevaluated and corrected. Discrepancy in wages between male and female workers will be
removed. National minimum wage will be refixed and a permanent wage board will be formed. To meet international demand,
tradewise training will be given to produce and export skilled manpower. As per ILO convention, the right to trade union will be
granted.
ii. Rationing system will be introduced for all labourers including garment worker, ultra poor and rural landless farm labourer, as
special consideration.

17. Freedom Struggle and Freedom Fighters:

i. Continuous efforts will be made for the realization of the dream and commitment of liberation war. Dignity and status of the
freedom fighters, who are the greatest sons of the nation, will be restored. And in state recognition of their contribution to the nation,
steps will be taken to increase their alliance, particularly of the distressed freedom fighters. Arrangements will be made to provide
then old-age subsistence allowance and free health care service. Quota in jobs and educational institutions for the children of
freedom fighters will continue. As honourable citizens, the freedom fighters will be given the privilege of travel by rail, bus, and river
free of cost.
ii. Construction of the Victory Monument in the Suhrawardy Udyan will be completed according to the original plan. Special work
programme will be undertaken all over the country to preserve the memory of the war of liberation and to portray its real history. All
over the country, slain field and mass graves of the liberation war period will be identified, the names and identities of the martyrs
will be collected and memorials in their honour will be built.

18. Religious Minorities, Disadvantaged People and Underdeveloped Areas

i. Terrorism, discriminatory treatment and human rights violations against religious and ethnic minorities and indigenous people
must come to an end permanently. Security of their life, wealth and honor will be guaranteed. Their entitlement to equal opportunity
in all spheres of state and social life will be ensured. Special measures will be taken to secure their original ownership on land,
water bodies, and their age-old rights on forest areas. In addition, a land commission will be formed. All laws and other
arrangements discriminatory to minorities, indigenous people and ethnic groups will be repealed. Special privileges will be made
available in educational institutions for religious minorities and indigenous people. Such special privileges will also apply for their
employment.
ii. The 1997 Chittagong Hill Tract Peace Accord will be fully implemented. More efforts will be directed toward the development of
underdeveloped tribal areas, and special programmes on priority basis will be taken to secure their rights and to preserve their
language, literature, culture, and unique lifestyles.

19. Freedom of mass media and information

i. The freedom of all types of mass media and flow of information will be ensured. Initiatives will be taken for community radio
services, besides national radio network.
ii. Investigation and trial of assassination of all journalists will be made expeditiously and the real criminals will be given exemplary
punishment. Persecution and intimidation of journalists will be stopped. All false cases against them will be withdrawn.
iii. Discrimination in distribution of advertisements on partisan consideration shall be discontinued, and development of the
newspaper as an industry will be aided.

20. Defence
i. Bangladesh Awami League will keep the armed forces above all controversies with a view to building it up as a patriotic, brave,
efficient and invincible force. The defence system will be improved for the security of the people and the country. A National
Defence Policy will be formulated.

ii. The principle of competence, merit, fitness and seniority will be strictly followed for recruitment, appointment and promotion.
Autonomy, as consistent with the Constitution, will be granted in matters of internal discipline, administration and management.
Welfare oriented projects will be undertaken for the members of the defence forces.
iii. Steps will be taken so that our defence and the police forces can participate more widely in the U. N. Peace-keeping Force and
make further contribution to international peace.

21. Culture and Sports

i. The State will provide necessary assistance for preservation of the secular and democratic tradition of Bengali culture as well as
further improvement of Bengali language and literature, music, arts and all branches of creative works and fine arts.

_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update 26
 21December 2008 AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
The International Mother Language Institute Project undertaken by the Awami League Government earlier (199602001) will be
reactivated.
ii. Creation of social awareness, scientific and liberal outlook will be emphasized with a view to resisting communalism and narrow
mindedness.
iii. Laws repugnant to Quran and Sunnah shall not be made. Due respect will be shown to the principles and values of all religions.
iv. Sports: Sports arena and organizations shall be depoliticized. Improvement of management, training and facilities shall be made
for enhancing the standards of sports to international levels. Sports and exercise for physical and mental development of the
children, the adolescent and the young shall be made compulsory for all education institutions.

22. Government and NGO

The non-government organizations shall be free to manage themselves in accordance with their own internal rules subject to
compliance with the laws of the country. The NGOs shall not take part in politics. Transparency and accountability of their income /
receipts and expenditures shall have to be ensured.

23. Foreign Policy

i. Bangladesh will take an active role in the preservation of world peace. An independent foreign policy will be pursued in adherence
to the principles of "Friendship with all and malice towards none." Friendly relationship will be maintained with India, Nepal, Bhutan
and Myanmar, our neighboring countries, in the context of further strengthening cooperation with all. Regional and sub-regional
cooperation will be further strengthened including relationship with the member countries of SAARC, BIMSTEC and D-8.
ii. Development cooperation will be deepened and expanded with the developed countries including USA, European Union, Japan
and Canada. Friendly relations will be strengthened with Russia, China and the member states of ASEAN.
iii. Initiatives will be taken for enhancing and deepening relationship with Australia and the Pacific countries.
iv. Fraternal relationship with the countries of the Middle East including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Palestine, United Arab Emirates and
Kuwait as well as Turkey, Malaysia and Indonesia will be maintained. Solidarity with the Muslim Ummah and economic cooperation
within the framework of OIC will be enhanced. Steps will be taken for establishing fruitful relationship with the countries of Africa
and South America.
v. A South Asian Task Force will be formed for meeting the challenge of terrorism and militancy.
The image and prestige of Bangladesh will be retrieved and improved in the international arena.

BNP Manifesto

Major policies from the Election Manifesto of Bangladesh Nationalist party, 2008

1. Prices of goods
During the last two years of the caretaker government, prices of daily products went up drastically. Not only the poor people, but
also the middle and lower middle income people got adversely affected. To get rid of this adverse situation-
a. BNP will take necessary steps to curb down this soaring high price.
b. The prices of rice, wheat, maize, oil will be cut down to a bearable limit through increased agricultural production and subsidy to
reduce the production cost.
c. BNP will take initiatives to start the closed factories and establish new factories of different important industries through
encouraging the national and international investors to increase the employment opportunities.
d. BNP will supply free food to the helpless and jobless poor through effective ‘open markets’.
e. A national food stockpile will be maintained keeping in mind the possibility of natural disasters. If the food items need to be
imported, BNP government will help the private and public importers to import such items.
f. A ‘National Employment Scheme’ will be undertaken to ensure that at least one member from each poor family is employed by the
government or self-employed. To materialize the scheme, national fund will be used along with the help from donor agencies and
NGOs.

2. Establishing proper law and order situation and eliminating terrorism

terrorism
BNP will fight against terrorism with full power and establish proper law and order situation in the country. To save peoples life,
property and honor, BNP will remain focused as always. Regarding this matter, BNP government has always been successful
during the last three eras of Begum Khaleda Zia and President Ziaur Rahman. For example, starting ‘Operation clean heart’ and
establishing ‘Rapid action batelllion (RAB)’ were two major successes of previous BNP government. In future-
• To ensure the safety of people from all sorts, current law and order will be modified properly. Members of Police, BDR, Anser, VDP
etc. will be made further skillful to protect the people’s life and property.
• All the criminal cases related to murder, terrorism, acid-throwing, rape, kidnapping, child and abuse, hijacking etc. will be settled
quickly.
• To make the law and order officials more efficient, they will be given proper training, modern equipments, latest arms etc.
• Any kind of terrorism in the name of religion will be eliminated at its root. During the last BNP government period, these terrorists
were arrested successfully. If BNP is elected again, it will remain focused on this issue.
• Recently, the international terrorist’s activities have increased dramatically. This is a major concern for people all over the world.
BNP will work with other governments to fight such activities and will not tolerate any such activities in Bangladesh. Regarding this
matter, BNP government will seek help from other country’s governments too.

_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update 27
 21December 2008 AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
3. Eliminating corruption
Corruption is playing its part in every classes of our society. Regarding this matter, the whole world is pointing to our country. Even
though some people are living an honest life, corruption is hampering the posture of Bangladesh in foreign countries. This situation
must be changed. To do this-
• If BNP is elected, it will take necessary steps to identify and eliminate the sources of corruption.
• In every buying and selling decisions and other activities of the nationalized sectors, accountability and transparency will be
ensured.
• The ‘Anti-corruption Commission’, established during the last BNP government era, will be made independent, neutral and effective.
• To increase the people’s awareness against corruption, mass publicity programs should be adopted. To ensure these programs, all
the government institutions, media and general people will be encouraged.
• All the elected MPs have to submit full description of their property within 30 days of taking oath.

4. Economic development,
development, industry and commerce
Whenever BNP was elected to run the government, all the garments, textiles, banking, insurance, telecom, shipping sub-sectors
were vastly developed both in private and public sector. BNP has always identified the importance of the prime sectors like textiles,
pharmaceuticals, leather, agriculture, horticulture, livestock, real estate, manpower export and developed these sectors accordingly.
Several laws related to economic development like ‘public procurement law’, ‘company law 1994’, ‘banking ordinance’, ‘money
laundering law’ etc. were started during the previous BNP government’s era.
The GDP growth of 7% during 2006, which was achieved when BNP was just leaving the power, had broken all the previous
records. During that period of 2000-2005 of BNP government the %age of poverty stricken people also went down to 40% from 49%
in 2000. Other significant achievements were-
• Foreign currency reserve went up to USD 3.8bn, which was a record at that time.
• The total tax collection went up by 10.6%.
• In the national budget, the foreign aid portion was reduced.
• The industrial GDP growth was 10%, which is the record high in the history of Bangladesh.
• Agricultural GDP growth was 4.38%. Every year the productions exceeded the targets.
• The export growth was 22% and it was increasing.
If the people of Bangladesh elect BNP again, it will remain focused on its previous initiatives for economic development. To ensure
this-
• It will take necessary steps to properly plan the development of industry, commerce and export.
• It will take further initiatives to eliminate the problems regarding the electricity, coal, gasoline etc.
• It will encourage the local and international investments in the country, mostly the NRB investments. To do this, it will eliminate the
hurdles of investing in Bangladesh. It will render extra facilities to the NRB investors.
• It will work hard towards market development for Bangladesh in the international arena, which will help to develop the industry and
service sector of Bangladesh. To do this a permanent ‘Export Park’ will be established with all the facilities to showcase the
Bangladeshi products to foreign buyers. This park will be a medium to advertise the Bangladeshi products and export these at
competitive prices. These initiatives will also create a lot of employment opportunities.
• BNP government will put enhanced focus on the small cottage industries and it will ensure sufficient loan facilities for these small
investors.
• Through enhancing the microcredit facility, the poor population will be made productive.
• For the women entrepreneurs, lending facilities will be extended at lower rate and less regulations.
• In the technology sector (engineering, medics, agriculture etc.), educated and young entrepreneurs will be given maximum BDT
1mn loan against their educational qualification and commercial viability of the project without any collateral.
• Banking transfers will be made more flexible and easier.
• Steps will be taken to set up ‘Underground rail’ or ‘Elevated monorail’ in the capital city, Dhaka.
• The initiatives to establish ‘four-lane motorway’ between Dhaka and Chittagong city will be materialized quickly.
• The current national rail service will be modernized and enhanced.
• The waterway transportation system will be improved further.
• Steps will be taken to set up the ‘Deep sea port’.
• The air-cargo system will be developed for export-import enhancement.
• Different specific zones will be established for different manufacturing and agro industries in different places. As a result,
employment opportunities will be created for the semi-urban and rural people. They need not go to urban areas for finding jobs.
• The largest export earner and one of the biggest employers of Bangladesh, the garments and textiles industry will be given proper
facilities to tackle the upcoming challenges.
• Proper steps will be taken to protect and develop the local industries like tea, jute, sugar, leather industries etc.
• To maintain the international quality and reduce the adulteration in the exportable products, BSTI will be made more effective and
vibrant.
• The general people will be encouraged to invest in the public companies through the stock exchanges. To protect the investor’s
money, BNP government will enhance the human resource, expertise and infrastructure of the SEC.
• During the era of previous BNP government, foreign investors were encouraged and started to invest in the DSE. After that, foreign
investments were halted for some time due to increased uncertainty. The newly elected BNP government will again encourage the
foreign investors to invest in the security exchanges.
• Bangladesh may be adversely affected in the next year due to the recent global financial crisis in the west. To tackle this adverse
situation, the newly elected BNP government will quickly form a highly powerful advisory committee. And according to its advice,
further steps will be taken.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update 28
 21December 2008 AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
5. Electricity
Due to the rapid development of the manufacturing and agriculture sector, the demand for electricity is soaring up. However, the
supply of electricity couldn’t catch up this pace. With the modernization of the urban and rural areas, people are now more
dependent on the electricity. To fill this demand-supply gap in the electricity sector-
• A transparent and effective scheme will be taken to plan the future production and supply of electricity. The plan will be
implemented as early as possible.
• BNP government will implement the power plant projects permitted by the World Bank, ADB and Japan and projects those are in
the pipeline. If possible, these initiatives will be materialized much before the target days.
• The re-tender procedures of ‘Bibiana’ (450MW) and ‘Sirajgonj’ (450MW) power plant projects will be done within 100 days after
BNP takes the charge.
• BNP government will encourage more establishments of private small plants (SPP) with loans from different private and public
banks.
• Every possibility will be checked and implemented to produce energy and electricity from water, air and solar energy.
• Steps will be taken to establish Nuclear power plant to produce electricity.

6. Oil, gas, coal and other mineral asset related

• The national stock of gas and coal will be used carefully according to the need and initiatives will be taken to find new stocks of coal
and gas.
• The newly elected BNP government will form a committee within 100 days comprising of experts to ensure the best use of these
resources. The government will act on the advices of the committee and formulate new energy policy. Sufficient electricity
production and proper extraction of oil, gas and coal will be the major concern of the policy.
• Proper initiatives will be taken for the extraction of expensive minerals like zircon, titanium from the deep sea. And other possibilities
of pricy mineral extractions will be explored.
• The energy regulatory committee will be made more effective and vibrant.

7. Agriculture and food security

Although the oil prices and food prices increased all over the world during the previous BNP government, the price level within
Bangladesh remained quite stable. According to one English daily, since the recent government took charge, food prices increased
by more than 90%-270%. To reduce the burden of this price level on people of Bangladesh-
a. To modernize and develop the agricultural sector, new technology and R&D procedures will be introduced and applied to the actual
field level.
b. BNP will help the country to achieve self sufficiency in food through increasing the production quantity and rate. Every possible
steps will be taken to ensure food security.
c. Every poor and landless farmer will be provided with better seeds, pesticides, and fertilizers at affordable prices.
d. To guarantee adequate supply of water in the paddy fields, better supply of electricity, pumps and gasoline will be ensured. To do
this, landless farmers will be provided with cheaper loans and subsidies.
e. To ensure that farmers get fair value for their products, BNP government will take necessary steps to ensure proper storage and
transportation facilities for the farmers and establish sufficient number of cold storages. In every steps of the marketing of agro-
products, the middlemen activity will be tackled tactfully.
f. BNP will make sure that farmers get proper benefits through encouraging then to produce multiple crops in one paddy field and
establish more industries where raw materials will come from the agro-products.
g. To properly market the agro-products sufficient number of ‘Agriculture Markets’ will be established and to boost export of agro-
products farmers will be trained to adopt better packaging and transportation procedures.
h. Farmers will be made aware of the side-effects of the fertilizers and pesticides and most importantly to ensure food security every
effective policy related to agriculture will be implemented as early as possible and farmer’s opinion will also be taken in making
policies.
i. In terms of livestock agriculture and fisheries, every possible technological improvement will be implemented.

8. Education
During the last era of BNP government, the education system in Bangladesh was vastly improved, especially the women education
system. Girls could study up to HSC without fee. Then, Bangladesh achieved equality primary education for both boys and girls,
which was not achieved by any other Asian country. Last time BNP chairperson initiated the opening of a university for women only,
‘Asian University for Women’. To increase the quality level of education in Bangladesh-
a. To achieve mass and vocational education system in Bangladesh, BNP government will form a committee comprising of experts
and experience people from the education industry within 100 days. According to the committee’s advice the government will take
necessary actions.
b. It will be ensured that, within the next 5 years not a single people in Bangladesh remain illiterate.
c. In every school, college, university, Madrasa whether private or public, computer education will be made must. Every student will be
allowed to study their own religious studies.
d. Students will be encouraged to put focus on the vocational and practical education system and in this regard every educational
institution will be brought under vocational and practical education system.
e. BNP government will put more focus on those fields where women can work freely and without any hassle.
f. To encourage more working women, more women polytechnic institutions will be established. In this regard, more women hostels
will be built too.
g. Poor but meritorious students will be awarded will adequate scholarships to run their education smoothly.

_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update 29
 21December 2008 AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
h. Steps will be taken to increase the quality id education, stop cheating tendency of students in the exam hall and eliminate session
jam in the public universities.
i. ‘High-tech City’ will be established near the major cities to improve the information technology education.
j. The initiative of the previous BNP government to establish an ‘Education Park’ to encourage students in scientific education will be
materialized.
k. For the native people of the hill tract area of Chittagong district, steps will be taken so that they can study on their own native
languages.
l. The people of Bangladesh who want to work in foreign countries will be trained properly so that they can fulfill the foreign countries
requirements and help boost the economy of his family and Bangladesh.
m. To ensure this, BNP government will take initiative to set up an ‘Asian Culinary College’. Here education will be provided
on the subjects like cooking, dining, food hygiene, personal hygiene, hotel management, promotion and accounts etc. Because of
this Bangladesh’s tourism sector will flourish and more employment opportunities will be created both locally and in foreign
countries for Bangladeshi people.
n. The respect for the teachers will be protected. To ensure that teachers can live a respectable life, their salary and benefits will be
increased as more as possible.
o. Free education will be provided to the women students up to post secondary level.

9. Health
a. To ensure healthy life for the population-
i. The medical and health system of the country will be modernized so that no one has to go to foreign countries for better treatments.
To do this, doctors, technologists and nurses will be trained in developed countries and import tax will be eliminated for the medical
machineries.
ii. The national health policy will be made more developed and vibrant.
iii. The population control activities will be enhanced and developed.
iv. The supply of pure and arsenic-free drinking water will be ensured in the villages of Bangladesh.
v. In the village area, the sanitation system will be further improved.
vi. The waste disposal system and sanitation system of Dhaka and other major cities will be further modernized.
vii. In the government hospitals, the medication process will be improved and the number of beds for the patients will be increased.
viii. For the overall population of the country, BNP government will establish more hospitals and Family Welfare Centers with improved
facilities.
ix. For the people those live beside rivers or lakes, ‘Mobile Medical Units’ will be established.
x. ‘Awareness against Aids’ campaign will be made more vibrant and strong.
xi. Awareness programs against drug addiction will be initiated and implemented properly.
xii. Regular medical checkup for students in schools will be started again.

b. Handicap related-
i. Those who are mentally and physically handicap will be provided with proper facilities of education, training and health.
ii. BNP government will take some special inititaves for them to ensure their rehabilitation, employment and entertainment.

10. Employment related

To increase the employment opportunities-
• BNP government will put more focus on the development of the rural infrastructure so that more employment opportunity can be
created.
• All the initiatives taken for the development purposes will be implemented within 2 months.
• BNP government will create more employment opportunities for the Bangladeshi people in foreign countries through improved
relationship and connection with foreign governments. This will increase the remittance inflow and demand for local products.
• To encourage more foreign and local investment BNP government will take necessary steps to improve the communication
between Dhaka-Chittagong. It will also focus on the maintenance and control of Chittagong and Mongla sea port.
• To create employment opportunities in Khulna and Barisal district, they’ll build the ‘Padma Bridge’ and an adjacent Special
Economic Zone.
• Recently in EU countries including Britain, Bangladeshi restaurants are doing tremendously well. These restaurants regularly
demand skilled labor from Bangladesh. To make sure that Bangladeshi people can these jobs easily BNP government will establish
‘Asian Culinary College’ to educate people in cooking, dining, hotel management, and hotel management related policies, laws etc.
• People of Bangladesh, who are willing to do jobs in US, EU, Middle East, Malaysia, Japan, South Korea etc., will be taught different
languages like English, Italian, Arabic, Malay, Korean, Japanese, Chinese etc.
• To fulfill the demand of male and female nurses in Britain and Middle East, BNP government will take necessary steps to send
skilled Bangladesh nurses to these countries.
• Employment related NGOs and Cooperatives will be given some extra facilities.

11. Transportation
The development of major highways, establishment of major bridges, ‘Newmuring’ Terminal in Chittagong, ‘Mghna Bridge’ near
Bhairav, ‘Dholeshwari bridge’ near Munshigonj, third bridge over ‘karnaphuli river’, two new terminal buildings in Chittagong and
Sylhet airport, modernization of Bangladesh railways, success in getting donations from ADB, World bank, Japanese government
for infrastructural development- these all are major achievements of the previous BNP government. To maintain this successful
trend-
• BNP will try to attract donor agencies to invest in building of a Deep Sea Port on the basis of probability report.

_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update 30
 21December 2008 AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
• A permanent system will be developed so that the regular activities in the Mongla and Chittagong sea ports are never hampered.
• The design work for the Padma Bridge is currently going on. BNP government will initiate the construction right after being elected.
Due to this, the people of Fardipur, Khulna and Barisal will be benefitted much. The improved transportation system will encourage
more investment and create more employment opportunities for the people in Khulna, Barisal and Faridpur.
• The Dhaka-Chittagong highway will be converted to Four Lane Motorway.
• In the big cities, program for constructing new highways, flyovers and monorails will be initiated.
• Environment-friendly transports will be encouraged.
• To transport big containers and release some pressure from the highways, the railway system will be developed further. For the
passengers, the railway system will be made more friendly and comfortable.
• To develop the river transportation system, necessary steps will be taken along with regular dredging. The river transportation
system will be made more secure for the businessmen and passengers.
• Strategic partnerships will be built with some foreign airlines company to convert the Bangladesh airlines into a profitable venture.

12. Local government system

• Decentralization tactics will be adopted to make sure that local administration can reach the general people.
• General people will be encouraged to take participation in the administrative decisions of the local government.
• Rural government system was one of the important milestones achieved by President Ziaur Rahman. BNP always worked hard to
establish local government system so that the power of making decisions regarding local development will remain on the hand of
locally elected leader. BNP will work hard to establish strong local government through elected officials at Zilla, Upzilla and Union
level.

13. Foreign policy and national security

BNP government will eliminate the advent of fundamentalism, terrorism and corruption with strong focus. The major points under the
foreign policy will be-
• Good relationship will be maintained with the neighboring countries, developed countries, Muslim countries to ensure regional
cooperation and honor.
• Strong relationship with the west.
• Effective diplomacy will be followed to ensure the right of Bangladeshi workers in Middle East, Europe, US, Malaysia, Japan, South
Korea etc.
• To make the collaboration strong among the members of SAARC, BIMSTEC, OIC and Commonwealth, BNP will always remain
focused.
• BNP government will take part in any initiative taken to fight against the Global Warming and take chance of the advent of
Information Technology all over the world.

14. Defense
• The defense forces will be trained, modernized with improved equipments and arms to make them more organized and strong.
• BNP government will make contribution to the UN peacekeeping initiative by sending armed forces when necessary.
• For the promotion of officers in the defense system skill, ability, character, seniority and brilliance will be considered.

15. National parliament

Parliament will be the center point of national politics. To make the national parliament effective and understandable-
• To solve the important national issues, two sided discussion will be performed along with the opposition parties in the parliament.
• The permanent committees will be formed within the second session of the national parliament. The MPs from the opposition
parties will also be considered to become members of the permanent committees.
• Without any definite issue no party will be allowed to walkout from the parliamentary sessions. If an MP remains absent for more
than 30 days, his membership from the parliament will be cancelled and the seat will remain empty.
• The speaker or deputy speaker will have to resign from his political party and dismiss all the relationships with that party. One MP
from the opposition party will be elected as deputy speaker.
• Every kind of cooperation and facilities will be given to the opposition party in the national parliament.

16. Judiciary system and its independence

Last BNP government took several initiates like starting ‘Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR)’ system, changing in ‘Dewani’ and
‘Fouzdari’ (Islamic rules) cases settlement etc. to retain the confidence of the people of Bangladesh on the national judiciary
system. However, during the recent caretaker government’s era, this judiciary system had lost its independence. To regain people’s
confidence on the system and maintain the judiciary development-
• The time taken for dispute settlement will be reduced and Dewani and Fouzdari case settlement system will be reformulated.
• The sources of corruption in the judiciary system will be identified and eliminated.
• In the judiciary system and cases management, information technology will be adopted through creating electronic database.
• An independent secretariat will be formed under the Supreme Court’s supervision to initiate the division and regain full
independence of judiciary system.

17. Local and mass administration

• In the national administration, recruitments, promotions and demotions will be based on skill, brilliance, ability and experience.
• The transparency and accountability will be insured in the national administration and the administration will be kept free from every
political influence.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update 31
 21December 2008 AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
18. Housing
According to the election manifesto of 2001, last BNP government had built some housing projects for the lower income people. They
also built some housing complexes for the government officials. To maintain the trend-
• New and improved housing projects will be initiated in the small and medium cities with REHABs help.
• Bangladesh has been identified as one of the possible victims of massive earthquake. So, BNP will ensure that no one can build
unplanned or lower quality housing in any area to ensure minimum damage of possible earthquake.
• For the homeless people, they will make small houses with minimum cost in the low and infertile lands and in this regard they will
seek help from private sector and NGOs.

19. Women, society and children

To increase the women’s self-dependence and honor-
• For the women who are either entrepreneurs or aspire to become one, BNP will ensure bank loans with minimum hassle and lower
interest. More facilities will be given to them in terms of employment and promotion.
• The rural women will be trained in mother and children health management, family planning, environmental management,
agricultural work etc.
• The legal and judiciary system for the Dowry system and acid throwing will be made stronger.
• To stop women and children trafficking, international cooperation will be undertaken.
• Children will be kept free from political influences and violence.
• The previous initiative of the BNP government to reduce the mortality rate of pregnant women and infants will be made further
brawny.
• A friendly environment will be created for the women to get fairly elected in the national parliament

20. Science and Information Technology

• According to the election manifesto of 2001, BNP government could successfully connect Bangladesh with the rest of the world with
Fiber Optic Submarine Cable.
• BNP government will take initiatives to build more than one IT cities outside Dhaka city. The employees recruited in these IT cities
will be trained to handle complex IT solutions so that they can provide world class quality IT services. Foreign investors in these IT
cities will be given higher preferences.
• With the IT Cities E-park or education park will be established so that everyone can be introduced to the science, IT, art, culture and
human evolution.

21. Telecommunication
In the era of last BNP government the number of mobile phone users increased from 5mn in 2001 to 30mn in 2006.
• To keep this pace, they’ll further improve the telecommunication sector to make the services easier and customer oriented.
• Internet services via mobile phone will spread all over the country.

22. Water policy and fisheries development

• National water policy will be refurnished and modernized to make it trendy.
12
• BNP will take necessary steps to take fair portion from the water of ‘Ganga ’ river.
• Sufficient number of arsenic free tube wells will be set up with the help of public health department and NGOs.
• Every internal aquifer will be developed to be usable for fisheries development. Original fishermen will be allocated sufficient portion
of the aquifers according to a specific policy.
• Sea-fish catching will be encouraged and facilitated, so that they can fulfill both the local and international demand. The export of
seafood will also be encouraged.

23. Land policy

• The perfect and best use of local lands will be ensured through modifying the national land policy.
• In distribution of pure lands, landless, shelter less poor people will be given priority.
• The pressure on the arable land will be reduced by encouraging the entrepreneurs to build factories on the unused lands of closed
factories.
• The roadside area of major highways will be used for industrial and agricultural development and poor people and freedom fighters
living in these areas will be given priority in taking facility of this development.
• The ‘Char’ area beside the sea and river will be further developed for agricultural and industrial development.

24. Cooperatives
• Farmer’s cooperatives, fishermen’s cooperatives, cottage industry cooperatives, small entrepreneur’s cooperatives etc. will be
provided with improved facilities and cheap loans.
• To materialize the rural development schemes, the rural members cooperatives will be give priority.
• Fair prices will be ensured by making strong collaboration with the producer’s cooperatives and consumer’s cooperatives, so that
the middlemen activities eliminate.

12 Ganga is one of the major rivers of the Indian subcontinent flowing east through the Gangetic Plain of northern India into Bangladesh.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update 32
 21December 2008 AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
25. Environment
Last combined BNP government was successful in stopping polythene and two-stroke baby taxi usage, materializing the tree
plantation and forestation schemes and beautifying the Dhaka and major cities. To maintain this trend-
• Illegal deforestation will be stopped and the laws will be strictly enforced regarding this matter.
• More tree plantation programs will be initiated beside the major highways, railways etc. All of the government offices will be
beautified by tree plantation.
• Illegal hill demonstration and usage of wood in the brick fields will be stopped.
• CNG usage in the vehicles will be made easier and secure.
• Laws related to air, sound and water pollution will be strictly enforced.
• The arsenic contaminated water management will be further developed.

26. Youth society

• The unemployed youth society will be trained and provided with soft loans to make them productive.
• Youth society will be actively involved in the national development.
• To make the youth society free from addiction and anti-social activity, BNP will take every possible step.
• The youth ministry will materialize the initiatives taken to train the young generation who want to work outside Bangladesh.

27. Labor society

society
• A new ‘Salary and benefit commission’ will be formed for government employees and labors.
• Current labor law will be modernized to make it democratic and up-to-date.
• Workplace security, honor and fair salary will be ensured for all classes of employees, especially for the women.
• Effective steps will be taken to stop hazardous child labor.
• Medical facilities, education and housing facilities will spread all over the country.
• Industrial labors will be trained to be more productive. BNP will make sure that labors get a portion from the extra revenue earned
for this increased productivity.

28. NRB welfare

• BNP government will make sure that Bangladeshi people who are going out of country for doing different kinds of jobs are not
betrayed by any person or company.
• The embassies in the respective countries will be given proper authority and orders to help the Bangladeshi workers get fair wages.
These embassies will also work to render every possible facility to the NRBs.
• To ensure the Bangladeshi labors welfare in the foreign countries, BNP government will make twofold contract with the respective
countries.
• Different types of development scheme will be initiated inside Bangladesh for the welfare of NRBs. They’ll be given priority in buying
government offices, housing projects or shops. A specific quota will be maintained in every school, college and universities for the
children of these NRBs.
• BNP government will ensure hassle free flight journey for the NRBs.
• Every possible government facilities will be rendered to the NRBs so that they can use their international expertise and experiences
in productive and employment generating sectors of Bangladesh
• Voting ID will be issued to the NRBs too.
• For the national development, NRB comments and suggestions will be taken seriously.

29. Human rights

• BNP government will materialize the universal human rights movement of United Nation.
• BNP government will take necessary steps to ensure political and national rights, economic, social and cultural rights as per
international requirement or credential.
• Steps will be taken to make the human rights commission more effective and vibrant.
• Special authority law of 1974 will be cancelled.

30. Social security net

Due to rapid globalization and modernization of production materials, industrials workers are losing their jobs. Moreover, because of
increased river erosion people are becoming homeless and landless.
• An effective social security net will be formulated with these victims to provide them improved training and soft loans so that they
can become productive again.
• The yearly subsidies for the old, poor people and freedom fighter’s family will be increased too.
• Health insurance schemes will be introduced for all to ensure sound health of the poor generation.
• For those who are disable unemployment subsidy will be given.
• For the poor rural women VGD (Vulnerable group development) program, ‘food for work’ programs etc. will be made more effective.
• During the era of last combined BNP government, an older generation friendly policy was adopted. If this government is elected
again, it’ll materialize the programs according to this policy so that the older generation of about 10mn people can pass their
remaining life happily and safely ever after.

31. Cooperation among different races and religions; protecting the rights people from different races
• BNP will ensure equal right for all the races and religion. They will establish strong cooperation and relationship among different
races and religions. Everyone will have the right to live according to specific religion.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update 33
 21December 2008 AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
• The Hindu, Buddhist and Christian welfare trust will be made more efficient and more funds will be allocated for these trusts.
• BNP will protect the culture and religion of native people of hill tracts, BNP will take very necessary steps. They will be involved in
the national development through better education and employment.

32. Social and cultural

• BNP will take every necessary step to improve the national culture and protect it from any kind of uncouthness.
• Facilities will be provided to the artists, singers so that they can work to protect our culture. Moreover, they will be awarded by
national medals for outstanding achievements.
• The activities of the ‘Bangla Academy’ and ‘Bangladesh Shilpokola Academy’ will be improved to protect our language and culture.
• To encourage the culture of native people from hill tracts of Chittagong, the Racial Cultural Centers will be made more developed
and vibrant.
• In major districts of Bangladesh, Annual movie festivals will be organized.

33. Tourism
• The religious places for the Hindus and Buddhists will be renovated and beatified so that Bangladesh can welcome good number of
tourists from Hindu and Buddhist countries.
• BNP government will take initiative to spread the native stories of ‘Lokhinder-behula’ from the north of Bangladesh, ‘Bogura’, to all
over the world. Every year in Bogura government will organize functions in memory of ‘Lokhinder-behula’. This is how, Bogura will
transform to a major tourist spot of Bangladesh.
• BNP government will take initiative to spread the fame of songs froms ‘Lalon majar’, Kustia and finance this kind of singing
prcatices. This is how, Kustia will become a tourist spot.
• This government will organize cultural tour to ‘Lalon majar’, ‘Shahjadpur and Shilaidoh Kuthibari’, ‘Kantojir temple in Jhinaidah’,
‘Comilla’s Lalmai and Moinamoti’, ‘Jessore’s Sagordari’, ‘Sylhet’s Shahjalal (R)’s Dargah, tea gardens’, ‘Jaflong’ etc.
• The issue regarding ‘Cable car’ establishment in Chittagong ‘Foys lake’ will be reopened.
• The beautification of Coxsbazar sea beach, Rangamati, Khagrachori, Bandarban etc. will be enhanced.

34. Sports
• Three modern Sports academies will be established in three important places. To do this, advises will be taken from the sports
federations, boards, international sports councils etc.
• A modern ‘National Olympic Academy’ will be established with technical help from Bangladesh Olympic Association, Olympic
Council of Asia and International Olympic Committee to get respectable places in the South Asian Games, Asian Games,
Commonwealth Games and Olympic Games. Intensive training will be provided here by international and national sports heroes.
• The Mirpur swimming complex and Gulshan Shooting Complex will be transformed into international quality training center.
• For the schools and colleges the prices of the sports equipment will be reduced. BNP will also make sure that students from these
institutions take participate in spots intensively.
• The illegal usage of admission quota for sportsperson in educational institutions will be monitored and terminated. Actual and
proved sportsmen will only face simple admission procedure.
• To increase the number Grandmasters and International masters in chess, brilliant chess players will be provided with better
facilitates like IT and laptop computers.

35. Taking experts opinion

For the welfare of the Bangladeshi people, newly elected BNP government will take experts opinions in education, health, agriculture,
industry, investment, electricity, water, mineral, laws, national security, local government, women and children development,
transportation, communication, environment, disaster management, science and technology, mass media, sports, human
resources, employment, cooperatives, human right, terrorist activities etc. by formulating national committee for every sector.

36. Vacation related

th th
• Former president Ziaur Rahman died on 30 May, 1981. So, 30 May will be announced as National Mourning Day and
government holiday.
• 7th November will also be announced as government holiday and National Revolution Day.

_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update 34
21December 2008 AT CAPITAL RESEARCH
AT Capital Team – Dhaka
Ifty Islam Managing Partner (880-2)-8155144, ext. 132 ifty.islam@at-capital.com
Syeed Khan Partner (880-2)-8155144, ext. 109 syeed.khan@at-capital.com
Akther Ahmed Senior Advisor (880-2)-8155144, ext. 108 akther.ahmed@at-capital.com
Masud Khan Senior Advisor (880-2)-8155144, ext. 113 masud.khan@at-capital.com

Shahed Farhan Investment Manager (880-2)-8155144, ext. 121 shahed.farhan@at-capital.com

Ziaush Shams Senior Research Associate (880-2)-8155144, ext. 120 zia.shams@at-capital.com
Jisha Sarwar Senior Research Associate (880-2)-8155144, ext. 119 jisha.sarwar@at-capital.com
S Adeeb Shams Research Associate (880-2)-8155144, ext. 128 adeeb.shams@at-capital.com
A. M. A. Bari Nahid Research Associate (880-2)-8155144, ext. 130 nahid.bari@at-capital.com
Mohammad Emran Hasan Research Associate (880-2)-8155144, ext. 131 emran.hasan@at-capital.com
Ahmad Sajid Research Associate (880-2)-8155144, ext. 135 ahmad.sajid@at-capital.com
S.M. Rashedul Hasan Research Associate (880-2)-8155144, ext. 137 rashed.hasan@at-capital.com
Tami Zakaria Research Analyst (880-2)-8155144, ext. 125 tami.zakaria@at-capital.com
Abdullah-Al-Farooq Research Analyst (880-2)-8155144, ext. 133 abdullah.farooq@at-capital.com
M. Emrul Hasan Research Analyst (880-2)-8155144, ext. 138 emrul.hasan@at-capital.com
Md. Zahidur Rahman IT Analyst (880-2)-8155144, ext. 140 zahidur.rahman@at-capital.com
Sohana Alam Seraj Office Manager (880-2)-8155144, ext. 132 sohana.alamseraj@at-capital.com

AT Capital Team – North America/Asia

Zarif Munir Senior Advisor zarif.munir@at-capital.com
Professor Jahangir Sultan, Ph.D. Senior Advisor jahangir.sultan@at-capital.com
M. Nasim Ali Senior Advisor nasim.ali@at-capital.com
Iqbal Hussain Senior Advisor iqbal.hussain@doctors.org.uk
Robert Kraybill Senior Advisor robert.kraybill@at-capital.com

© Copyright 2008. Asian Tiger Capital Partners Limited, Level 16, UTC Tower, Panthapath, Dhaka –
1215, Dhaka, Bangladesh. All rights reserved. When quoting please cite “AT Capital Research”. The
above information does not constitute the provision of investment, legal or tax advice. Any views
expressed reflect the current views of the author, which do not necessarily correspond to the opinions of
Asian Tigers Capital Partners or its affiliates. Opinions expressed may change without notice. Opinions
expressed may differ from views set out in other documents, including research, published by Asian
Tigers Capital Partners Limited. The above information is provided for informational purposes only and
without any obligation, whether contractual or otherwise. No warranty or representation is made as to the
correctness, completeness and accuracy of the information given or the assessments made.

_______________________________________________________________________________________
AT Capital Weekly Update 35