F rom: Tom Jensen, Director of Public Policy Polling

To: Interested Parties

Subject: K aine leads A llen by 5 points in V irginia Senate race
Date: O ctober 17th , 2012
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Virginia finds Tim Kaine leading George Allen by
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pretty similar to a 51/44 spread on a PPP survey of the state last week.
Key findings from the poll include:
-Kaine has a 52/40 lead among the pivotal independent voters who will end up being the
decisive factor in the election. A strong advantage for Kaine with those folks has become
a persistent theme in our polling- he led 53/40 with them last week.
-Virginia voters have really warmed up to Kaine over the last month of the campaign. In
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to 49/42.
-Kaine is ahead thanks to wide leads with women (57/37), African Americans (89/6),
other non-white voters (57/32), and voters under 30 (53/36).
-Barack Obama is clinging to a narrow advantage over Mitt Romney in the state, 49/48.
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PPP interviewed 733 likely Virginia voters on October 15th and 16th on behalf of the
League of Conservation Voters. The margin of error is +/-3.6%
Public Policy Polling

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604

Phone: 888 621-6988

Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com
Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com

Virginia Survey Results

Q1

The candidates for President are Democrat

Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?

Q5

John McCain................................................... 44%

Barack Obama................................................ 52%

Barack Obama................................................ 49%

Mitt Romney.................................................... 48%

Q2

Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 5%

Q6

Woman ........................................................... 55%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of George Allen?

Man................................................................. 45%

Q7

Unfavorable .................................................... 39%

Republican...................................................... 34%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Tim Kaine?
Favorable........................................................ 49%

Independent/Other .......................................... 29%

Q8

Unfavorable .................................................... 42%

Tim Kaine........................................................ 50%

If you are white, press 1. If African-American,

press 2. If other, press 3.
White .............................................................. 74%

Not sure .......................................................... 9%

The candidates for Senate this fall are

Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George
Allen. If the election was today, who would you
vote for?

If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,

press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 37%

Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q4

If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Undecided....................................................... 3%

Favorable........................................................ 47%

Q3

Who did you vote for President in 2008?

African-American ............................................ 19%

Other............................................................... 7%

Q9

If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to

45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.

George Allen ................................................... 45%

18 to 29........................................................... 16%

Undecided....................................................... 5%

30 to 45........................................................... 30%
46 to 65........................................................... 34%
Older than 65 .................................................. 20%

October 15-16, 2012

Survey of 733 likely voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

2008 Vote

2008 Vote

John Barack Som eone else/Don't

Base McCain Obam a
rem em ber
Obam a/Rom ney

John Barack Som eone else/Don't

Base McCain Obam a
rem em ber
Allen Favorability

Barack Obam a 49%

7%

86%

20%

Favorable 47%

77%

23%

29%

Mitt Rom ney 48%

91%

13%

46%

Unfavorable 39%

11%

65%

24%

2%

2%

35%

Not sure 14%

13%

12%

47%

Undecided

3%

2008 Vote

2008 Vote

John Barack Som eone else/Don't

Base McCain Obam a
rem em ber
Kaine Favorability

John Barack Som eone else/Don't

Base McCain Obam a
rem em ber
Kaine/Allen

Favorable 49%

13%

82%

28%

Tim Kaine 50%

9%

87%

27%

Unfavorable 42%

77%

11%

52%

George Allen 45%

86%

10%

45%

10%

7%

20%

5%

2%

28%

Not sure

October 15-16, 2012

survey of 733 likely voters

9%

Undecided

5%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Gender
Base Wom an

Gender
Man

Obam a/Rom ney

Base Wom an

Man

Allen Favorability

Barack Obam a 49%

56%

39%

Favorable 47%

40%

55%

Mitt Rom ney 48%

41%

58%

Unfavorable 39%

44%

33%

3%

3%

Not sure 14%

16%

12%

Undecided

3%

Gender
Base Wom an

Gender
Man

Kaine Favorability

Base Wom an

Man

Kaine/Allen

Favorable 49%

56%

41%

Tim Kaine 50%

57%

42%

Unfavorable 42%

35%

51%

George Allen 45%

37%

55%

9%

8%

6%

3%

Not sure

October 15-16, 2012

survey of 733 likely voters

9%

Undecided

5%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Party

Party

Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other

Obam a/Rom ney

Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other

Allen Favorability

Barack Obam a 49%

87%

9%

46%

Favorable 47%

25%

75%

42%

Mitt Rom ney 48%

12%

91%

46%

Unfavorable 39%

60%

12%

45%

2%

0%

9%

Not sure 14%

15%

13%

14%

Undecided

3%

Party

Party

Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other

Kaine Favorability

Kaine/Allen

Favorable 49%

78%

17%

51%

Unfavorable 42%

13%

74%

42%

9%

9%

8%

Not sure

9%

October 15-16, 2012

survey of 733 likely voters

Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other

Tim Kaine 50%

86%

11%

52%

George Allen 45%

12%

85%

40%

3%

4%

8%

Undecided

5%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Race

Race

AfricanBase White Am erican Other

Obam a/Rom ney

AfricanBase White Am erican Other

Allen Favorability

Barack Obam a 49%

37%

90%

61%

Favorable 47%

56%

15%

39%

Mitt Rom ney 48%

62%

4%

28%

Unfavorable 39%

34%

58%

47%

2%

7%

10%

Not sure 14%

11%

27%

14%

Undecided

3%

Race

Race

AfricanBase White Am erican Other

Kaine Favorability

AfricanBase White Am erican Other

Kaine/Allen

Favorable 49%

42%

75%

58%

Tim Kaine 50%

40%

89%

57%

Unfavorable 42%

50%

14%

37%

George Allen 45%

56%

6%

32%

8%

11%

5%

4%

5%

11%

Not sure

October 15-16, 2012

survey of 733 likely voters

9%

Undecided

5%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Age
Base

Age

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Obam a/Rom ney

Base

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Allen Favorability

Barack Obam a 49%

49%

52%

48%

44%

Favorable 47%

60%

41%

45%

47%

Mitt Rom ney 48%

42%

46%

50%

54%

Unfavorable 39%

25%

36%

46%

42%

9%

2%

2%

2%

Not sure 14%

15%

22%

8%

10%

Undecided

3%

Age
Base

Age

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Kaine Favorability

Base

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Kaine/Allen

Favorable 49%

66%

42%

51%

43%

Tim Kaine 50%

53%

54%

50%

44%

Unfavorable 42%

26%

45%

44%

46%

George Allen 45%

36%

44%

46%

52%

8%

13%

4%

10%

11%

2%

4%

5%

Not sure

October 15-16, 2012

survey of 733 likely voters

9%

Undecided

5%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988