Seismic Hazard Assessment in Japan

Hiroyuki Fujiwara

National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention

National seismic hazard maps for Japan

Long term evaluation Strong-motion evaluation

Probability of occurrence, magnitude, location

Strong-motion, underground structure

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps

Showing the strong-motion intensity with a given probability, or the probability with a given intensity. Considering all possible earthquakes.

Scenario Earthquake Shaking Maps

Showing the strong-motion intensity around the fault for a specified earthquake.

Background of the Project

The Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster on January 17, 1995 killed 6,434 people and destroyed over 100,000 buildings, and brought to light a number of problems in our national earthquake disaster prevention measures.

Following on the lessons learned from this disaster, the Special Measure Law on Earthquake Disaster Prevention was enacted in July 1995 to promote a comprehensive national policy on earthquake disaster prevention.
Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion was established in accordance with the Special Measure Law on Earthquake Disaster Prevention (1995).

Background of the Project

Promotion of Earthquake Research -April 23, 1999 Comprehensive and Fundamental Measures for Promotion of Observation, Measurement and Research on Earthquakes (The 1st stage : 1999-2008) Major subjects of Earthquake researches immediately Preparation of seismic hazard maps based on surveys of active faults, long-term evaluations of the probability of earthquake occurrence, and evaluations of strong ground motion Promotion of real-time transmission of earthquake information Improvement of observation system for earthquake disaster prevention Promotion of observation and research for earthquake prediction

Background of the Project

The next Promotion of Earthquake Research -April 21, 2009 Comprehensive and Fundamental Measures for Promotion of Observation, Measurement and Research on Earthquakes (The 2nd stage : 2009-2018)

The objectives of the earthquake research which should be promoted in the coming 10 years are as follows. (1) Improving the accuracy of the prediction of earthquake occurrence, strong ground motion and tsunami based on the observation and research for the subduction-zone earthquake (2) Systematic accumulation and maintenance of the information for the research related to active faults and advanced evaluation (3) Strengthening of mediation function to promote the study on engineering and social science for disaster prevention and disaster reduction

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map

Predicting possibility that a certain area is attacked by strong ground motion in a given years. PSHM Feature
Showing the strong-motion intensity with a given probability, or the probability with a given intensity.
Considering all possible earthquakes. Showing comprehensive ground motions caused by independent earthquakes
Example of probabilistic map

Evaluation of occurrence probability of earthquakes by ERCJ

Flowchart of PSHA
Modeling of seismic activity

Evaluation of an EQ occurrence probability P(Ei)

Probabilistic evaluation of an intensity level P(Yi > y|Ei)

Evaluation of probabilistic seismic hazard for each earthquake P(Yi > y)= P(Ei) P(Yi > y|Ei)
Evaluation of probabilistic seismic hazard for all earthquakes P(Y > y)=1-[1- P(Yi > y)]

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps

Probability in 30 years. (JMA Seismic Intensity 6-

Seismic Intensity with 3% probability of exceedance in 30 year.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps

JMA SI 5-

JMA SI 5+

These maps show the probability in 30 years with the JMA seismic intensity more than or equal 5-, 5+, 6-, 6+, respectively.
JMA SI 6JMA SI 6+

Classification into Earthquake category

Earthquake category 1 Earthquake category 2 Earthquake category 3

Characteristic Subductionzone Earthquakes

Fused Subduction-zone Earthquakes

Crustal Earthquakes

Hazard Map for each earthquake category

Probability in 30 years. (JMA Seismic Intensity 6-

1/4

2/4

3/4

1/4

interquartle

2/4

3/4

1/4

2/4

3/4

The 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake

Comparison between the hazard maps and observed strong motions

Seismic Intensity with 2% probability of exceedance in 50 year.

Seismic Intensity with 5% probability of exceedance in 50 year.

Modeling of seismic activity in the Pacific plate

M=8.0

Mu=7.0

M=7.5

Mu=7.0 Mu=7.2 Mu=7.5 Mu=7.1 Mu=7.5

M=7.7

M=7.4 M=8.2 Mt=8.2

Mu=7.3

M=7.0

?
M for characteristic earthquakes

Mu=7.0

Max M for background earthquakes

Issues to be solved for improvement of seismic hazard assessment for Japan

1) Modeling of seismic activity with no oversight to low-probability earthquakes. 2) Preparation of strong ground motion maps considering low-probability earthquakes. 3) Development of methodology for selecting appropriate scenario earthquakes from probabilistic seismicity model. 4) Development of methodology for prediction of strong ground motions for mega-thrust earthquakes.

Scenario Earthquake Shaking Maps

The shaking maps are evaluated for 490 scenario earthquakes of almost all of major faults in Japan.

Selection of a specified scenario is essential to make a shaking map. The basic policy of the selection of a scenario earthquake is that we choose the most probable case. For treatment of uncertainties, we assume several cases of source model and compare the results of them to show deviation of strong-motion evaluation due to uncertainties.

Theoretical approach for evaluation of strong-motion

Amplification due to soft soil near surface

Complicated source process

Wave propagation in a heterogeneous medium

Amplification due to thick sediment

Hybrid method for evaluation of strong-motion

Low frequency range

Matching filter
Low frequency range High frequency range

Finite Difference Method

High frequency range

Stochastic Greens function method

Superposition

deterministic

Stochastic

The technical details on the hybrid method are summarized as the Recipe for strong-motion evaluation, which are published by the earthquake research committee of Japan.

Characterized Source Model

Complicated source model

The complicated source model is simplified by the characteristic source model for strong-motion prediction.
Characterized source models are composed of asperities and a background slip area surrounding the asperities. Asperities are the main rupture areas in the fault zone.

Source parameters required to evaluate strong-motions by using the characterized source model are classified into three parts. The first part is the set of outer parameters that show the magnitude and the fault shape of the earthquake. The second part is the set of the parameters that describe the degree of fault heterogeneity. The third part is the set of the parameters to define the characteristics of the rupture propagation.

Modeling of underground structure

Surface soil Sediment Engineering bedrock Vs=0.40.7km/s

Deep underground structure

Source

Seismic bedrock Vs=3km/s

The deep underground structure from the crust and plates up to seismic bedrock; The structure of sediments from the seismic bedrock up to engineering bedrock (Vs=400m/s700m/s); The structure of surface soils from the engineering bedrock up to the ground surface. Flowchart of structure modeling

Site Amplification
20052008

2009

390,000 meshes
Mesh size 1km2

5,960,000 meshes

0.250.25km2

Mesh size

Site Amplification

Site Amplification

Subsurface modeling of deep sedimentary layers

Vp 2.1km/s Vp 2.5km/s

Vp 3.0km/s

Vp 3.5km/s

Vp 4.0km/s

Vp 4.8km/s

Vp 5.5km/s

Initial model.
Velocity-structure of deep sedimentary layers from the seismic bedrock to the engineering bedrock greatly affects the characteristics of relatively long period strong-motion. We developed a velocity structure model of deep sedimentary layers of the whole of Japan for evaluation of strong motion.

Velocity structure model for deep sedimentary layers

To improve the initial model, with a focus on predominant periods, by comparing the H/V spectral ratio of seismic records (for M5.5 or greater) obtained by the Kyoshin Network (K-NET, KiK-net) and the H/V spectral ratio of fundamental to 4th higher-mode Rayleigh waves obtained from velocity structure models. Comparing calculated waveforms with observed waveforms for middle-scale earthquakes (around M5), the validity of adjustments using H/V spectral ratios was reviewed.

Depth contour of seismic bedrock

Development of Integrated Geophysical and Geological Information Database

Information on underground structure

000 000 500 000 500 000 500 000 500 000 500 000 500 000 00 00 00 00 00 0

Management system on sharing for Integrated Database

NIED Database of underground structure AIST Database of geological information

PWRI Database of soil dynamics

Coordination and integration by the network

Municipalities DB

Utilization of the database

ERI of Tokyo University

Tokyo Institute of Technology

JGSs database

Reduction of natural disaster Construction of safe, secure and sustainable society

The concept of Integrated Database

Image of Integration
Integration of data contents from the original data to model data Integration of databases of multiple organizations

Integration of data across the country

Integration by shared management via the network

Integration in terms of depth from the shallow part to the deep part Qualitative integration of information on geology, geophysical data, etc.

As we regards information on underground structure as public assets of the nation, we develop a database that allows for mutual utilization and publication of data through a network of each organizations databases. The keyword of this research project is Integration. The word Integration implies several meanings, as shown in this figure, the process of integration is to be carried out following these six principles.

Diagram showing the concept of the management system on sharing

User
Image, GML
Search function, Map display function, Download function Applicable software: Browser, GIS

Portal site NIED

WMS: Web Map Service WFS: Web Feature Service

Service integration, Data integration

Image, GML

Image, GML
WMS server WFS server

Image, GML
WMS server WFS server

Image, GML
WMS server WFS server

WMS, WFS server (Example: MapServer) Spatial database (Example: PostGIS)

Spatial database
Internal user Database
Spatial information and attributes

Spatial database
Internal user Database
Spatial information and attributes

Spatial database
Internal user Database
Spatial information and attributes

Internal user

Database (Example: PostgreSQL) Spatial information and attributes

Existing system

Existing system

Existing system

Existing system

Upgrading adapter

Upgrading adapter

Upgrading adapter

Upgrading adapter

Database A
NIED (Head office)

Database B

Database C PWRI

Database D Municipality

AIST

Working group (Venue to discuss utilization and publication of data)

The configuration of the data sharing management system consists of database management servers for individual organizations and a portal site.

Boring data collected and registered into database

The number of borehole data which were collected and registered into data base
Organization NO. Detail Detail No.

Country

142,492

Prefecture

128,760

Municipality

36,090

Other Total

93,719 401,061

MLIT MEXT NIED Hokkaido area Tohoku area Kanto area Hokuriku area Chubu area Kinki area Shikoku area Hokkaido Tochigi Chiba Saitama Kanagawa Shizuoka Niigata Fukui Ishikawa Fukuoka Academic societies Public corporation Geological maps, etc.

90,542 51,950 11,242 8,229 77,180 6,681 21,630 3,698 100 315 777 2,196 1,560 24,098 2,419 169 342 4,201 13 79,645 3,652 10,422

The number of boring data that have been registered in the database is approximately 400,000 across the country.

Location map of boring data which were collected and registered into the database.

Japan Seismic Hazard Information Station

http://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp
In order to promote the use of the national seismic hazard maps, an engineering application committee (Chairman: Prof. H. Kameda) was established by NIED. Under the committee guidance, we developed an open web system to provide information interactively, and named this system as Japan Seismic Hazard Information Station, J-SHIS. Our products are aimed to meet multi-purpose needs in engineering fields by providing information of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps

Probabilities that seismic intensity exceeds the JMA scale 5-, 5+, 6- and 6+ in 30 or 50 years. The JMA seismic intensity corresponding to the exceedance probability of 3% and 6% in 30 years and of 2%, 5%, 10% and 39% in 50 years.

Example of display of site amplification factor

By changing the transmission rate, background map can be emphasized.

J-SHIS application for smart phone GPS

3G/WiFi

WMS RestfulAPI

Japanese-Chinese-Korean cooperative joint research collaboration program

Title of cooperative research project (2010-2013) Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Next Generation Map Research Leaders Hiroyuki Fujiwara (Japan, NIED) Tao Xiaxin (China, Harbin Institute of Technology) Myung-Soon Jun (Korea, KIGAM) Cooperative joint research
1. To review the data and methodologies adopted in SHA maps of the three countries, and reevaluate and improve the SHA in each of the countries. 2. To compare the data and the methodologies with the state of the art, and see if there anything could be accepted for the next generation maps. 3. To develop a procedure to establish ground motion equations for maps. 4. To combine the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and the scenario seismic approach, the latter is especially for near field of potential large earthquake.

Disaster-Risk Information Platform (BOSAI-DRIP)

Damage Assessment Geospatial Information

Hazard Map

DRI for Earthquakes

DRI for Volcanic Eruption

Governments History and Record of Universities, Institutes Companies, NPOs Disaster Interoperable Information Environment Institutions and Services
AIU(Japanese ABC) for BOSAI-DRIP

DRI for Floods

DRI for Landslides DRI for Heavy Snow and Ice Disaster-Risk Evaluation System

Clearinghouse for DRI Disaster-Risk Management System for Individual

Disaster-Risk Management System for Local Community

DRMS for LC DRMS for I

DRMS for I

DRMS for LC

Utilization of information

Advancement of information

Interoperability of information

Thank you for attention.