Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| November 10, 2012

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narveker@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

Vaishali Sheth - Research Associate vaishalij.sheth@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133
Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| November 10, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Sugarcane output may drop 9 mt in Maharashtra, U.P.
A bitter battle over sugar cane price this season may turn out to be the bitterest. Emboldened by the prospect of decontrol and other reforms within a few months, mills are delaying crushing to take a tough bargaining stance. Farmers lobby, however, are firm on demand for hefty rise in cane price. Sugar mills in Uttar Pradesh have not yet started crushing though cane harvesting begun more than a week ago. In Maharashtra, out of the 160 mills that are expected to be active in crushing season this year, only 27 mills have started operations. Among them, only 15 mills are currently active in crushing. The Uttar Pradesh Sugar Commissioner has asked all district magistrates to ensure that mills start crushing without delay. According to the latest statistics, sugar production in Uttar Pradesh is expected to be higher by about 10 per cent. But in Maharashtra and Karnataka cane production shortfall is anticipated. Combined production of these two States is expected to be lower at about 9 million tonnes as compared to 13 million tonnes, according to Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd (BCML) . In view of shortage, cane growers in Uttar Pradesh are pushing for 20 per cent price hike.
(Source: Business Line)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on Nov 9, 2012
WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

18684 5686 54.37 85.09 1725

-0.86 -0.91 0.30 0.77 0.71

-0.38 -0.20 1.31 -2.30 0.66

-0.58 -0.32 3.46 -4.75 -2.71

6.34 7.50 10.95 -9.73 -1.70

Source: Reuters

World food import bill expected at $1.4 trillion in 2012; down by 10%
The global food import bill is expected to decline by 10 per cent to $1.4 trillion (about Rs 76.28 lakh crore) this year due to fall in expenditure on food items, UN body FAO has said. Lower global prices and freights, together with less cereal purchases are predicted to reduce global expenditure on imported foodstuffs in 2012, the bi-annual global market report added. "The global food import bill is also likely to be marked by strong to moderate falls in the cost of most foodstuffs compared with 2011," it said. The highest decline is expected in vegetables and fruits ($27 billion) and cereals ($24 billion). The value of imports is also estimated to decline for dairy products ($14 billion), sugar ($12 billion) and vegetable oils ($11 billion), it said. Oilseeds, the only item not expected to have seen a decline, is estimated to increase by 10 per cent ($7 billion) and fish by 3 per cent ($3 billion). Meanwhile, FAO noted that the global food prices declined by 8 per cent in October 2012 compared to the same month last year. (Source: Economic Times)

Pre Expiry Margin - Chana (CHARJDDEL) Contracts

Trading and Clearing members are hereby informed that in terms of Byelaws, Rules and Regulations of the Exchange, the pre expiry margin on Chana (SYMBOL: CHARJDDEL) November 2012 contract has been increased from the existing 3% to 7% for last 5 trading days increased on a daily basis on both buy and sell sides. (Source: NCDEX)

Oilseed acreage up as rabi sowing begins

Planting of wheat, the main rabi or winter crop, has begun in Punjab and Haryana. So far, a total area of 21.83 lakh hectares (lh) has been covered under wheat, which is a bit lower over the corresponding period last year. However, the planting of rapeseed-mustard the key winter oilseed has gained momentum as temperatures see a drop across the northern States. So far, the total area under oilseeds mustard and safflower stood at 43.21 lh, a 23 per cent growth over last years 35.18 lh. The oilseed extraction industry expects a 20 per cent rise in output this year on high prices. (Source: Business Line)

Indonesia Palm Oil Group Wants Tax Changes to Counter Malaysia

Indonesia, the worlds biggest palm oil producer, should cut tax on exports to preserve its market share and counter the impact of lower tariffs proposed by Malaysia, a growers group said. Shipments to India, the worlds biggest buyer, may drop next year because of the Malaysian tax cut and as the South Asian country increases duty on imports of refined palm oil products, Susanto, head of marketing at the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, told reporters in Jakarta on Friday. India is Indonesias biggest buyer, and shipments may reach about 5 million tons this year, said Susanto. Malaysia, the second-largest palm oil producer, will cut the tax on exports of crude variety and abolish the duty-free shipments quota from Jan. 1, a move that will increase competition with Indonesia. (Source: Jakarta)

Market regulator asked to rein in pepper cartels

A section of pepper traders has sought the intervention of the Forward Markets Commission (FMC) to check manipulation of the futures market by some cartels. They alleged that a situation has emerged making it difficult for some hedgers to deliver/ deposit pepper against sales on the exchange platform. In a letter to FMC Chairman Kishor Shamji, an exporter/processor and former President, India Pepper and Spice Trade Association (IPSTA), said that the prices were held high by commodity price manipulating cartels who are distorting the pepper trade in general. He said the goods deposited on October 29 by some have not come to their account yet. Traders alleged that with money power and inside influence depositing goods was being delayed. In fact, the depositing time at our disposal is limited because of Diwali holidays next week and weekend holidays, which has reduced the number of days for depositing the pepper against sales by the genuine hedgers, he said.
(Source: Business Line)

Palm Oil Shipments From Indonesia Jumping to 10-Month High

Palm oil exports from Indonesia, the worlds largest producer, will probably climb 13 percent this month to the highest level since January as lower prices and taxes spur importers to boost purchases. Shipments are set to increase to 1.6 million metric tons from an estimated 1.41 million tons in October, according to the median of estimates from three plantation executives, an analyst and a refiner compiled by Bloomberg. Output will decline to 2.4 million tons from 2.43 million tons, the survey showed. Stockpiles may drop to 2.5 million tons from 2.6 million tons, three respondents said. Stockpiles in Malaysia reached a record 2.48 million tons in September after surging 46 percent from June, according to data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, which is set to release figures for October on Nov. 12. A Bloomberg survey published on Nov. 6 showed that stockpiles in Malaysia may have expanded further last month, reaching 2.7 million tons. (Source: Bloomberg)

Global models see fresh storm in Bay of Bengal

There is increasing consensus in the outlook for busying weather activity around the south peninsular coast during next week. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts sees a well-marked low-pressure developing off Tamil Nadu coast early in the week. US National Centres for Environmental Prediction has projected that storm conditions might develop here during this time. These are likely to resemble the scenario when tropical cyclone Nilam had hit the coast just south of Chennai earlier last week. (Source: Business Line)

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| November 10, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana futures declined 1.06% as demand is subdued, while supplies may ease on expected higher imports. Prospects of better sowing of Chana in the coming weeks are also seen pressurizing prices. Except for Wheat, minimum support price of all other Rabi crops has been increased by CCEA for 2012-13 season. MSP of Chana/Gram is raised by Rs 200 per qtl for 2012-13 season to Rs 3000. Higher returns and favorable soil condition will definitely boost acreage in the coming season. Although overall pulses sowing is lagging by 31% to 1.87 mn ha till 2nd Nov, chana sowing is up Maharashtra and AP. Acreage is down mainly in Rajasthan. In Maharashtra, chana sowing is completed on 2.9 lakh hectares as on 2nd November, which is 24% of the targeted 12.32 lakh ha, and up by 67% compared to last year. In AP chana sowing is up by 15.9 to 1.96 lakh ha as on. In Rajasthan, sowing is down 66% at 2.78 lakh hectares as on th 10 October 2012. (State Farm Departments) As per the NCDEX circular dated 1 October, Special Margin of 10% (in cash) on the Long Side on all the running contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Chana have been withdrawn with effect from beginning of day Thursday, October 04, 2012.
st

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 4575 4581 Prev day -0.70 -1.06

as on Nov 9, 2012 % change WoW MoM 1.10 -3.91 0.55 -6.55 YoY 45.24 47.63

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX Nov'12 Futures

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX Dec contract

Sowing progress and demand supply fundamentals

Improved rains towards the end of monsoon season coupled with hike in MSP have raised prospects of Chana sowing in the 2012-13 season. Also, farm ministry has targeted 7.9 mn tn chana output for 2012-13 season, higher compared to 7.58 mn tn in 2011-12. According to the Ministry of Agriculture 99.81 Lakh hectare area has been planted under Kharif pulses in 2012-13 compared to 108.28 lakh hectare (ha) in the previous year. According to the first advance estimates of 2012-13 season, kharif pulses output is estimated lower by 14.6% at 5.26 million tonnes compared with 6.16 mn tn last year. Kharif pulses harvesting would commence from next month. Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source: Agriwatch)
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Chana Dec Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Nov 10, 2012 Resistance 4335-4368

4195-4245

Outlook
Chana futures in intraday might decline on account of weakening demand. In the short to medium term we expect prices to stay under downside pressure as supply pressure may ease amid shipments from Australia and Canada. Going forward, prices may also take cues from sowing progress of Rabi pulses.

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| November 10, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar prices settled higher by 0.59% on Friday due to emergence of demand at lower levels. Decision over cane pricing in Maharashtra and UP has delayed crushing this season too. Despite festival season, prices are under check this season as government has released higher quota of 40 lakh tonnes for October and November, compared to 34.6 lakh tonnes during 2011. Liffe white sugar as well as ICE raw sugar closed higher on Friday by 0.68% and 1.17% on account of long liquidation. Higher output and lower imports expectations for the 2012-13 season from China coupled with higher sugar surplus forecast for fourth straight year has led to a sharp decline in international sugar prices during the past few weeks.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolkata) Sugar M- NCDEX Nov '12 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3725

as on Nov 8, 2012 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.28 0.68 MoM -0.98 YoY 11.24

Rs/qtl

3388

0.59

0.03

-2.19

12.86

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeDec'12 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE Mar '13 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 529.5 423.56

as on Nov 9, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW 0.68 1.17 -1.51 -1.40 MoM -10.32 -10.35 YoY -19.68 -22.99

Domestic Production and Exports

Although some of the mills have started operations in Maharashtra, but still crushing has not gained momentum as farmers are seeking higher cane prices. In UP too crushing normally starts in the first week of November, but this year also crushing is delayed due to disputes over cane pricing. According to the first advance estimates by agriculture ministry, Sugarcane output is pegged at 335.3 mn tn, down by 6.2% compared to 357.6 mn tn last year. Despite of higher acreage, the producers body has estimated next years sugar output lower at 24 mn tn, down by 2mn tn compared to the current year. Sugar production in India the worlds second-biggest producer touched 26 million tonne since October 1, 2011. Industry body ISMA has estimated 6 mn tn stocks for the new season beginning October 01, 2012 compared to 5.5 mn tn year ago. India may export 2.5-3 mn tn sugar in 2012-13. With the opening stocks of 6 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 30mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22.523 mln tn for 2012-13. Thus, no curbs on exports are seen as of now.

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX Dec contract

Global Sugar Updates

Sugar output in Brazil jumped 57% during the first fortnight of October. th And thus output is now lower just by 3.7% as of 16 October at 26.7 mn tn. Unica expects the main center-south cane to yield 32.7 mn tn sugar output in 2012-13, down 1.2 % from the 33.1 mn tn forecast in April. Brazil exported 3.998 million tons of sugar, raw value, in October up from 2687 million tons in September. Brazil has exported only 15.59 million tons of sugar this year till October which was 17.17 million tons, raw value, last year same period. The International Sugar Organization said it expected a global sugar surplus of 5.86 million tonnes in the season running from October 2012 to September 2013, up from the prior season's surplus of 5.19 million tonnes. The ISO said the stocks/consumption ratio could rise to around 40 percent in 2012/13, from 37.6 percent in 2011/12. (Source: Reuters)

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Dec NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Nov 10, 2012 Resistance 3328-3345

3275-3290

Outlook
Sugar prices may trade sideways as supplies are sufficient to meet the festive season demand which might put pressure on the prices. However, delayed crushing may support prices at lower levels and thus sharp fall may be restricted.

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| November 10, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: Soybean futures declined 1.15% on account of weak
international markets ahead of USDA November monthly crop report which is expected to increase its production forecast for soybean. Soy meal exports during October are down 49,840 tn in October, the seventh consecutive month of fall in the current fiscal year, from 223,594 tn a year ago. This is because, most export commitments were done for forward trade like Nov-Dec amid uncertainty over supplies in October. Soybean arrivals at MP declined to 2.75 lakh bags on Friday, while in Maharashtra and Rajasthan it stood at 1 lakh bag and 60000 bag respectively. Solvent plants are aggressive buyers in the coming days to keep up with their commitments for DOC exports. According to first advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at 126.2 lk tn for 2012-13.

Market Highlights
Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Nov '12 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Nov '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 3346 3277 695.7 681.5

as on Nov 9, 2012 % Change Prev day -0.48 -1.15 -0.14 0.19 WoW 0.27 -1.84 -1.12 -0.34 MoM 6.87 4.60 4.33 2.92 YoY 50.45 46.04 10.16 7.38

Source: Reuters

as on Nov 9, 2012 International Prices Soybean- CBOTNov'12 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTDec'12 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1452 47.77 Prev day -3.15 -2.05 WoW -4.91 -3.02 MoM -4.68 -4.78
Source: Reuters

International Markets
CBOT Soybean declined 3.15% on Friday after the release of USDA November monthly crop report which forecasted more than expected rise in US soybean output. Soybean prices have fallen 18% from their nominal record closing high of $17.71 a bushel on Sept. 4 According to the USDA November monthly report, The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday raised its estimate for soybean production by 4% from its forecast last month, saying that rainfall late in the growing season softened the impact of the U.S. drought. Despite the USDA report, supplies of the oilseed in the U.S. are unusually tight by historical standards and China-led export demand remains strong. Area and production in Argentina for MY 2012-13 are maintained at 19.7 million hectares and 55 million tonnes, respectively. th Brazil's government on 8 Nov 2012 edged up its forecast for a record 2012/13 soybean crop to between 80.1 and 83 million tonnes, despite concerns after dry October weather and planting delays

YoY 23.50 -6.31

Crude Palm Oil

as on Nov 9, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW -0.53 0.02 -5.27 -2.36

Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Nov '12 Contract CPO-MCX- Nov '12 Futures

Last 2245 425.7

MoM -1.45 1.99

YoY -26.75 -16.43

MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg

Source: Reuters

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Nov '12 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 4255 4186 Prev day -1.33 0.31

as on Nov 9, 2012 WoW 1.07 -0.07 MoM 1.31 0.14

Source: Reuters

YoY 37.65 33.02

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil settled lower on account of weak palm
oil markets coupled with slight improvement in fundamentals in USDA monthly crop report. MCX CPO settled marginally higher on account of short coverings. However, Malaysian palm oil remained under downside pressure amid rising stocks. Also, reduction in Indonesias export tax led to a correction on the BMD. According to latest data from SEA, total vegetable oil imports in September were 993,912 tn, up from 897,018 tn in the previous month. As per MPOBs latest report, Malaysia's September palm oil stocks rose 17 percent to record high 2.48 million tons compared to previous month.

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX Dec contract

Rape/mustard Seed: Rm seed futures settled marginally higher as

higher sowing prospects capped the upside despite of tight supply th position. Rabi oilseeds sowing as on 10 November was reported at 43.21 lakh ha as compared to 35.18 lakh ha in the same period last year. MSP for Mustard seed is increased by 20% from Rs 2500/Quintal to Rs 3000/Quintal for 2012-13 Season.

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Edible oil complex might trade sideways with downward bias on account of weak international markets. However, good demand for soy meal might provide support to the prices at lower levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Dec NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX Dec Futures RM Seed NCDEX Dec Futures CPO MCX Nov Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for Nov 10, 2012 Support 649-657 3235-3265 4168-4202 416.50-420 Resistance 668-673 3335-3368 4285-4320 428-432

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| November 10, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Black Pepper
Pepper futures traded downwards for the third consecutive day yesterday on reports of better output in the domestic as well as the international markets this season. Farmers are also trying to liquidate their stocks ahead of the commencement of arrivals of the fresh crop. Exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets remains weak due to huge price parity. However, prices recovered from lower levels towards the end on account of short coverings. The Spot as well as the December Futures settled 0.67% and 0.71% lower on Friday. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $8,350/tn(C&F) while Vietnam was offering Austa at $7,000/tn, Brazil Austa at $6,700/tn, and Indonesia Austa at $6,500/tn (FOB).

Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Nov '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 41400 42100 % Change Prev day -0.67 -0.47

as on Nov 9, 2012 WoW -1.44 -1.21 MoM -2.25 -2.88 YoY 19.42 19.48

Source: Reuters

Exports
According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper in April 2012 fell by 47% and stood at 1,200 tonnes as compared to 2,266 tonnes in April 2011. India imported 1,848 tonnes of pepper till March 2012 and has become the third country to import such large quantity after UAE and Singapore. (Source: Agriwatch) According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) exports of black pepper in 2012 are forecasted at around 1,25,000 tonnes. Exports of Pepper from Vietnam during January till September 2012 is estimated around 80,433 mt, higher by 4.3% in volume and 31.7% in value compared to corresponding year last year. Exports of Pepper from Brazil during January till May 2012 are estimated around 13369 mt. (Source: Peppertradeboard). Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 14.8% in the first 2 months of the year (2012) to 8810 tn as compared to 10344 tn in the same period previous year. Imports of Pepper in the month of February declined by 16.8% to 3999 tn as compared to 4811 tn in the month of January 2012. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. During May 2012 Brazil exported 1,705 tonnes of pepper as against 1600 tn in May 2011.

Technical Chart Black Pepper

NCDEX Dec contract

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX Dec Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for Nov 10, 2012 Support 40700-41000 Resistance 41500-41820

Production and Arrivals

The arrivals in the spot market were reported at 8 tonnes while offtakes were 12 tonnes on Friday. As per IPC, Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.36 lk tn, up by 12.7% compared with 2.98 lk tn in 2011. Indonesian pepper output Is expected to rise by 24% and in Vietnam by 10%. According to previous estimates, report pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.35 lakh tonne as compared to 1.10 lakh tonne estimated early in the beginning of year (2012). Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year. Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) On the other hand production of pepper in India in 2011-12 is expected to decline further by 5% to 43 thousand tonnes as compared to 48 thousand tonnes in the last year. Production is lowest in a decade.

Outlook
Pepper is expected to trade downwards today. Liquidation pressure from farmers as well as low export demand may pressurize prices. Good supplies in the international market from other origins may also keep prices under check. However, festive season as well as winter demand is expected to support prices at lower levels.

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| November 10, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera Futures traded on a positive note yesterday reports of fresh export enquires. However, spot gained only marginally since farmers are selling their stocks as they need cash during the festive season. The sowing of the crop has started and is expected to gain momentum in the coming days, thus pressuring prices. Sowing in Gujarat is currently lower by 15-20%. Festive demand is also expected to improve. Exporters have been buying due to tensions between Syria and Turkey. The spot as well as the December Futures settled 0.22% 1.82% higher on Friday. According to markets sources about 75% exports target has already been achieved due to a supply crunch in the global markets. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,850 tn (c&f) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 4-5 lakh bags lower by around 3 lakh bags last year.

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera SpotNCDEX(Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Nov '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 15037 14650 Prev day 0.22 1.88

as on Nov 9, 2012 % Change WoW 1.04 3.59 MoM -0.46 -3.81 YoY 5.24 8.91

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Jeera

NCDEX Dec contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Unjha markets witnessed arrivals of 8,000 bags, while off-takes stood at 8,000 bags on Friday. Production of Jeera in 2011-12 is expected to be around 40 lakh bags as compared to 29 lakh bags in 2010-11 (each bag weighs 55 kgs). (Source: spot market traders). According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera in April 2012 stood at 2,500 tonnes as compared to 2,369 tonnes in April 2011, an increase of 6%.
Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day -0.20 -0.59

as on Nov 9, 2012 % Change

Unit Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Nov '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Last 5062 5380

WoW 2.25 4.63

MoM -2.28 -0.96

YoY -5.86 19.72

Outlook
Jeera futures are expected to trade sideways to positive today. Prices may witness downside pressure as farmers are liquidating their stocks for want of cash. Prices may recover on fresh export demand. Festive buying may also lend support to the prices. In the medium term (November-December 2012), prices are likely to stay firm as there are limited stocks with Syria and Turkey.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX Dec contract

Turmeric
Turmeric Futures recovered marginally after correcting sharply over the last 2 days. Steady demand coupled with fresh upcountry orders supported the prices. Stockists have good carryover stocks with them, pressurizing prices in the spot. Turmeric has been sown in 0.58 lakh hectares in A.P as on 10/10/2012. Sowing is also reported 30-35% lower during the sowing period. The Spot settled 0.2% lower while the December Futures settled 0.39% higher on Friday.

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi stood at 10,000 bags and 700 bags respectively on Friday. Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 90 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 201011. Erode is expected to produce 55 lakh bags of turmeric a rise of 29% as compared to previous year. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX Dec Futures Turmeric NCDEX Dec Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Valid for Nov 10, 2012

Support 14920-15060 5078-5140 Resistance 15375-15520 5240-5296

Outlook
Turmeric prices are expected to trade sideways today. Good demand from North India is expected to support prices. However, large stocks may pressurize prices.

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| November 10, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas futures closed marginally down by 0.31% as weak international market as well as arrival pressure is weighing on the prices. As on 4th November 2012, 13.02 lakh bales of Cotton has arrived so far, down by 29% compared to last year 18.57 lakh bales during the same period. U.S. ICE cotton futures settled higher by 0.46% on short coverings
Source: Reuters

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 968 16150

as on Nov 9, 2012 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.87 -1.38 -0.31 0.62 MoM 1.89 0.62 YoY #N/A -3.35

NCDEX Kapas Futures MCX Cotton Futures

Cotton harvesting has commenced in US, in all 64% is harvested as compared to 50% a week ago, versus 68% same period a year ago. Cotton crop condition is 43% in Good/Excellent state compared to 29% th same period a year ago as on 6 Nov 2012.

International Prices
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit Usc/Lbs Last 69.58 81.35

as on Nov 9, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW 0.46 -1.16 0.00 0.00 MoM -3.50 0.00 YoY -30.97 -29.20

Domestic Production and Consumption

According to Cotton Advisory Boards (CAB) latest estimates for 2012-13 season that commenced in October, domestic cotton production is pegged 334 lakh bales, down 5.6% from the previous years estimates of 353 lakh bales. Lower opening stocks coupled with estimated lower output will result in lower supplies this season at 374 lakh bales, a decline of 8.7% compared with last years 410.77 lakh bales. On the consumption front, domestic consumption is estimated higher at 270 lakh bales on the back of higher mill consumption. However, after witnessing record exports in 2011-12 season, Indian exports could witness significant fall this season on the back of lower availability along with unattractive domestic cotton prices. CAB estimates cotton exports at 70 lakh bales this season, compared with 128.8 lakh bales last year.

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Global Cotton Updates

The U.S. government has raised its 2012/13 forecast for global cotton inventory to above 80 million 480-pound bales for the first time due to larger-than-expected output in the United States, the world's third largest producer, and falling demand from China, the world's largest consumer. In its monthly crop report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture increased its estimate for 2012/13 ending stocks for a fourth straight month to a new all-time high of 80.27 million bales. Harvesting is on in US and 50 percent of harvesting is completed till date. Higher global ending stocks are seen capping the upside in the cotton prices this year too. However, downside is also limited as prices are again nearing its 12 year average price of 65 cents per pound. Markets will now take cues from the Chinese demand for cotton and trade policies of India with respect to cotton exports. In its October monthly demand supply report, the Agriculture Department (USDA) raised its cotton crop for 2012/13 cotton crop season to 17.29 mln bales (Prev 17.11) along with upward revision in end stocks 5.60 mln 480 pounds/bales (Prev 5.30). Exports were down to 11.60 mln 480 pounds/bales (Prev 11.80).
Source: Telequote

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX Nov contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Cotton prices may trade sideways with downward bias on account of weak international markets. Although harvesting pressure may build mid November onwards, but still no major downside is expected in the domestic markets as farmers will not sell their stocks at very low prices. Also, CCI procurement at MSP levels may support prices from falling sharply.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April Kapas MCX April Cotton MCX November Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale

valid for Nov 10, 2012 Support 945-958 942-955 15700-15960 Resistance 980-989 978-987 16200-16280

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