Professional Documents
Culture Documents
8-1
Preemptive Right
Prevents management from issuing a large number of additional shares and purchasing those shares itself To protect the existing common shareholders from 8-3 dilution.
Founders Shares
Stock owned by the firms founders that has sole voting rights but restricted dividends for a specified number of years.
Golden Share
A nominal share which is able to outvote all other shares in certain specified circumstances, often held by a 8-4 government organization.
Question???
Should management be equally concerned about employees, customers, suppliers, and the public, or just the stockholders? In an enterprise economy, management should work for stockholders subject to constraints (environmental, fair hiring, etc.) and competition.
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Intrinsic Value
A true value determined by companies Represents true investor returns, caused by true risk.
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Undervaluation
When stock price < intrinsic value
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D3 D1 D2 D P0 ... 1 2 3 (1 rs ) (1 rs ) (1 rs ) (1 rs )
^
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8-11
8-12
D t D0 ( 1 g )
0.25
Dt PVD t t (1 r )
P0 PVDt
0
Years (t)
8-13
8-14
8-15
If D0 = $2 and g is a constant 6%, find the expected dividend stream for the next 3 years, and their PVs.
g = 6%
2.12
rs = 13%
2.247
2.382
8-16
8-17
What is the expected value of the stock, one year from now?
D1 will have been paid out already. So, P1 is the present value (as of year 1) of D2, D3, D4, etc.
D2 $2.247 P1 rs - g 0.13 - 0.06
^
$32.10
P1 P0 (1.06) $32.10
8-18
What is the expected dividend yield, capital gains yield, and total return during the first year?
Dividend yield
= D1 / P0 = $2.12 / $30.29 = 7.0%
If D0 = $2, RRR is 13%, and g is a constant 0%, find the expected dividend stream for the next 3 years, and their PVs.
The dividend stream would be a perpetuity.
0 1 2 3
rs = 13%
...
2.00 2.00 2.00
8-20
Supernormal Growth
If D0 = $2 and g = 30% for 3 years before achieving long-run growth of 6%, find the intrinsic value of the stock.
Can no longer use just the constant growth model to find stock value. However, the growth does become constant after 3 years.
8-21
2
g = 30%
3
g = 6%
...
2.600
3.380
4.394
4.658
46.114
54.107 = P0
^
$ P3
$66.54
8-22
Find expected dividend and capital gains yields during the first year.
Dividend yield (first year)
= $2.60 / $54.11 = 4.81%
During nonconstant growth, dividend yield and capital gains yield are not constant, and capital gains yield g. After t = 3, the stock has constant growth and dividend yield = 7%, while capital gains yield = 6%.
8-23
Find expected dividend and capital gains yields during the second year.
Dividend yield (second year)
= $3.38 / $58.54 = 5.77%
During nonconstant growth, dividend yield and capital gains yield are not constant, and capital gains yield g. After t = 3, the stock has constant growth and dividend yield = 7%, while capital gains yield = 6%.
8-24
Find expected dividend and capital gains yields during the third year.
Dividend yield (third year)
= $4.394 / $62.77 = 7%
During nonconstant growth, dividend yield and capital gains yield are not constant, and capital gains yield g. After t = 3, the stock has constant growth and dividend yield = 7%, while capital gains yield = 6%.
8-25
If D0 = $2 and g is 0% for 3 years before long run growth of 6%, find the intrinsic value of the stock.
0 k = 13% 1 s
g = 0% g = 0%
2
g = 0%
3
g = 6%
...
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.12
20.99
25.72 = P0
^
$ P3
$30.29
8-26
Find expected dividend and capital gains yields during the first and fourth years.
Dividend yield (first year)
= $2.00 / $25.72 = 7.78%
After t = 3, the stock has constant growth and dividend yield = 7%, while capital gains yield = 6%.
8-27
If D0 = $2 and g is a constant 6% (negative growth), would anyone buy the stock? What is its intrinsic value?
The firm still has earnings and pays dividends, even though they may be declining, they still have value.
D0 ( 1 g ) D1 P0 ks - g ks - g
^
Dividend yield
= 13.00% - (-6.00%) = 19.00%
Since the stock is experiencing constant growth, dividend yield and capital gains yield are constant. Dividend yield is sufficiently large (19%) to offset a negative capital gains.
8-29
Divide MV of common stock by the number of shares outstanding to get intrinsic stock price (value).
P0 = MV of common stock / # of shares
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8-32
Given the long-run gFCF = 6% after year 3, and WACC of 10%, use the corporate value model to find the firms intrinsic value, if the FCF for Years 1, 2, and 3 are -5m, 10m, and 20m, respectively.
0 k = 10%
1
-5
2
10
3
20
g = 6%
...
21.20
21.20
530 =
0.10 - 0.06
= TV3
8-33
If the firm has $40 million in debt and has 10 million shares of stock, what is the firms intrinsic value per share?
MV of equity = MV of firm MV of debt = $416.94m - $40m = $376.94 million Value per share = MV of equity / # of shares = $376.94m / 10m = $37.69
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EXAMPLE: Based on comparable firms, estimate the appropriate P/E. Multiply this by expected earnings to back out an estimate of the stock price.
8-35
EVA Approach
It is an estimate of a firms economic profit. It is the value created in excess of the required return of the companys investors. EVA = (Equity Capital) x (ROE Cost of Equity Capital) Market value of equity = Book value + PV of all future EVAs Intrinsic Value = MV of equity / # of common shares outstanding
8-36
EVA Approach
Consider the following table below:
2011 Equity capital 100,000 2012 120,000 2013 150,000
Net income
Cost of equity Number of shares outstanding
20,000
12% 10,000
25,000
12% 12,000
30,000
12% 10,000
What is the intrinsic value of the stock for the year 2011?
8-37
D1 rs g P0
^
8-38
Market equilibrium
Expected returns are obtained by estimating dividends and expected capital gains. Required returns are obtained by estimating risk and applying the CAPM.
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Weak-form efficiency
Cant profit by looking at past trends. A recent decline is no reason to think stocks will go up (or down) in the future. Evidence supports weak-form EMH, but technical analysis is still used.
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Semistrong-form efficiency
All publicly available information is reflected in stock prices, so it doesnt pay to over analyze annual reports looking for undervalued stocks. Largely true, but superior analysts can still profit by finding and using new information
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Strong-form efficiency
All information, even inside information, is embedded in stock prices. Not true--insiders can gain by trading on the basis of insider information, but thats illegal.
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Behavioral finance incorporates elements of cognitive psychology to better understand how individuals and markets respond to different situations.
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Preferred stock
Hybrid security Like bonds, preferred stockholders receive a fixed dividend that must be paid before dividends are paid to common stockholders. However, companies can omit preferred dividend payments without fear of pushing the firm into bankruptcy.
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If preferred stock with an annual dividend of $5 sells for $50, what is the preferred stocks expected return? Vp = D / rp $50 = $5 / kp kp = $5 / $50 = 0.10 = 10%
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Exercises:
A stock, which currently does not pay a dividend, is expected to pay its first dividend of $1.00 per share in five years (D5 = $1.00). After the dividend is established, it is expected to grow at an annual rate of 25 percent per year for the following three years (D8 = $1.953125) and then grow at a constant rate of 5 percent per year thereafter. Assume that the riskfree rate is 5.5 percent, the market risk premium is 4 percent, and that the stocks beta is 1.2. What is the expected price of the stock today?
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Exercises:
The Textbook Production Company has been hit hard due to increased competition. The companys analysts predict that earnings (and dividends) will decline at a rate of 5 percent annually forever. Assume that rs = 11 percent and D0 = $2.00. What will be the price of the companys stock three years from now?
8-50
Exercises:
A stock is expected to pay a $2.50 dividend at the end of the year. The dividend is expected to grow at a constant rate of 6 percent a year. The stocks beta is 1.2, the risk-free rate is 4 percent, and the market risk premium is 5 percent. What is the expected stock price eight years from today?
8-51
Exercises:
Assume an all equity firm has been growing at a 15 percent annual rate and is expected to continue to do so for 3 more years. At that time, growth is expected to slow to a constant 4 percent rate. The firm maintains a 30 percent payout ratio, and this years retained earnings net of dividends were $1.4 million. The firms beta is 1.25, the risk-free rate is 8 percent, and the market risk premium is 4 percent. If the market is in equilibrium, what is the market value of the firms common equity (1 million shares outstanding)?
8-52
Exercises:
During the past few years, Swanson Company has retained, on the average, 70 percent of its earnings in the business. The future retention rate is expected to remain at 70 percent of earnings, and long-run earnings growth is expected to be 10 percent. If the risk-free rate, rRF, is 8 percent, the expected return on the market, rM, is 12 percent, Swansons beta is 2.0, and the most recent dividend was $1.50, what is the most likely market price and P/E ratio (P0/E1) for Swansons stock today?
8-53
Exercises:
Conner Corporation has a stock price of $32.35 per share. The last dividend was $3.42. The long-run growth rate for the company is a constant 7 percent. What is the companys capital gains yield and dividend yield?
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