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Dena Bank
Performance Highlights
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
% chg (qoq) (3.0) (4.5) 0.4 2QFY12 515 352 194 % chg (yoy) 15.4 24.2 23.8
`112 `123
12 months
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Dena Bank posted a healthy performance on the operating front during 2QFY2013, with a growth of 15.9% and 24.2% yoy, respectively in operating income and operating profit. On the earnings front, the bank witnessed a healthy growth of 23.8% to `240cr. Business growth continues to be aggressive; Asset quality pressures witnessed: During 2QFY2013, the bank continued with its aggressive pace of business growth, as both advances and deposits witnessed strong growth of 37.8% and 30.1% yoy. The loan growth was primarily driven by growth in priority sector advances and MSME book. CASA deposits grew at a healthy pace of 16.4% yoy, largely aided by strong growth in current deposits, even as growth in saving deposits remained moderate. CASA ratio declined by 376bp yoy to 31.9%. Yield on advances declined by 14bp qoq, while the cost of deposits declined by 4bp qoq on account of the sequential improvement in the CASA ratio. Hence the reported NIM declined by 20bp qoq to 2.9%. The non-interest income (excluding treasury), grew at a subdued pace of 4.8% yoy, on back of lower recoveries from written-off accounts. The bank witnessed asset quality pressures, with both gross and net NPA levels increasing sequentially by 8.8% and 20.7%, respectively. Slippages came in at `288cr compared to `192cr in 1QFY2013 and `244cr in 4QFY2012. As per the management, incremental slippages were granular in nature, except for ~`90cr coming in from two accounts. Annualized slippage ratio came in at 2.0%, higher compared to 1.4% in 1QFY2013. PCR dipped by 315bp sequentially to 72.5%. Additionally, the bank restructured advances worth `300cr compared to ~`852cr restructured in 1QFY2013. As of 2QFY2013, the banks outstanding restructured book stood at ~`4,500cr, out of which ~`4,375cr constitutes standard restructured advances. As per RBIs 75bp increase in provisioning requirement for standard restructured advances, the additional provisioning requirement would be `32cr. Outlook and valuation: Despite weak macro fundamentals, the bank has aggressively grown its loan book in FY2012. We remain cautious on the banks asset quality, in-line with the sectoral outlook. Considering the valuations that the bank is trading at (0.7x FY2014 ABV), we recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `123.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 55.2 11.1 16.8 16.9
3m 4.3 24.3
FY2011 1,763 60.3 612 19.6 2.8 18.3 6.1 1.1 .0 20.9
FY2012 2,101 19.1 803 31.3 2.7 22.9 4.9 0.9 1.0 20.7
FY2013E 2,479 18.0 907 13.0 2.7 25.9 4.3 0.8 1.0 19.4
FY2014E 2,818 13.7 844 (7.0) 2.8 24.1 4.7 0.7 0.8 15.6
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Sourabh Taparia
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872 sourabh.taparia@angelbroking.com
2QFY13 2,194 1,690 495 10 1,600 594 134 115 106 19 9 728 291 179 112 437 105 60 (3) 47 333 93 240 28.0
1QFY13 2,137 1,651 449 10 27 1,525 612 142 110 104 32 6 754 296 172 124 458 103 95 (34) 42 355 116 239 32.7
% chg (qoq) 2.7 2.4 10.1 (6.5) 4.9 (3.0) (5.5) 4.6 1.5 (40.1) 64.0 (3.5) (1.8) 4.0 (9.7) (4.5) 1.1 (36.7) 11.9 (6.2) (19.8) 0.4 (474)bp
2QFY12 1,634 1,226 397 11 0 1,119 515 113 109 97 4 13 628 276 163 114 352 81 65 11 5 271 77 194 28.5
% chg (yoy) 34.3 37.8 24.8 (15.2) 43.0 15.4 18.1 4.8 9.3 382.2 (28.9) 15.9 5.3 10.1 (1.6) 24.2 28.5 (7.9) 821.1 22.9 20.6 23.8 (53)bp
FY2012 4,331 3,340 944 20 27 3,125 1,206 276 224 210 51 15 1,482 587 351 236 895 208 155 (36) 89 687 209 478 30.4
FY2011 3,162 2,403 743 16 0 2,201 961 238 232 209 5 23 1,199 539 331 209 660 147 87 48 12 513 151 362 29.5
% chg 37.0 39.0 27.1 22.9 42.0 25.5 15.9 (3.5) 0.1 855.8 (36.3) 23.6 8.8 6.2 12.9 35.7 41.6 77.3 672.6 34.0 38.1 32.2 91bp
Estimates 627 126 753 312 441 126 315 102 213
% chg (5.3) 6.4 (3.4) (6.8) (0.9) (16.8) 5.4 (9.2) 12.5
2QFY13 1QFY13 % chg (qoq) 2QFY12 % chg (yoy) 58,852 83,552 70.4 6,485 20,135 26,620 31.9 12.1 8.1 7.6 11.8 2.9 39.9 1,171 2.0 721 1.2 72.5 2.0 0.3 59,642 79,736 74.8 5,282 19,361 24,643 30.9 12.4 8.3 7.7 12.0 3.1 39.3 1,076 1.8 597 1.0 75.6 1.4 0.4 (1.3) 4.8 (436)bp 22.8 4.0 8.0 95bp (30)bp (23)bp (4)bp (14)bp (20)bp 69bp 8.8 17bp 20.7 21bp (315)bp 68bp (17)bp 42,723 64,236 66.5 4,891 17,988 22,879 35.6 12.6 9.3 7.0 12.0 3.2 44.0 830 1.9 491 1.2 77.1 1.4 0.4 37.8 30.1 393bp 32.6 11.9 16.4 (376)bp (50)bp (119)bp 67bp (15)bp (36)bp (402)bp 40.9 4bp 46.8 7bp (467)bp 64bp (11)bp
70.1 66.5
18.0 20.1
15.7 13.0
26.5 20.2
39.1 26.1
37.8 30.1
35.6
34.9
34.5
30.9
31.9
30.0 28.0
(0.1)
(4.0)
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3.33
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
Subdued growth in non-interest income (excluding treasury), on lower recoveries from written-off accounts
During 2QFY2013, non-interest income (excluding treasury), grew at a subdued pace of 4.8% yoy to `115cr, on back of lower recoveries from written-off accounts. Recoveries from written off accounts came in at `9cr compared to `13cr in 2QFY2012, while CEB (commission, exchange and brokerage) income grew at a moderate pace of 9.3% yoy to `106cr. Overall, the non-interest income for the bank grew by 18.1% yoy to `134cr, mostly due to a strong performance on the treasury front (`19cr in 2QFY2013 compared to `4cr in 2QFY2013). The management had increased the employee strength of the treasury department and hence expected improved performances on the treasury front.
accounts. Annualized slippage ratio came in at 2.0%, higher compared to 1.4% in 1QFY2013. PCR (including technical write-offs) dipped by 315bp sequentially to 72.5%.
Additionally, the bank restructured advances worth `300cr compared to ~`852cr restructured in 1QFY2013 (out of total `852cr restructured in 1QFY2013, ~`725cr pertained to SEBs). As of 2QFY2013, the banks outstanding restructured book stood at ~`4,500cr, out of which ~`4,375cr constitutes standard restructured advances. As per RBIs 75bp increase in provisioning requirement for standard restructured advances, the additional provisioning requirement would be `32cr. Exhibit 8: Slippage ratio elevates in 2QFY2013...
Slippages (%) 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 Credit cost (%, RHS) 0.6 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 72.5 77.1 76.6 75.5 75.6
1.9 1.2
1.9 1.1
1.7 1.0
1.8 1.0
1.4
1.5
2.2
1.4
2.0
2.0 1.2
561
0.5
0.5
70.0 68.0
1,298
1,307
1,342
1,358
44.0
41.8
41.2
39.3
39.9
38.0 36.0
1,250 1,200
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
1,417
0.5
Coverage ratio
Source: Angel Research
FY2014 Var. (%) (2.7) 1.4 (1.9) (1.0) (2.6) (10.4) 0.8 (6.8) 4.4 Earlier estimates 2,853 642 3,495 1,511 1,983 720 1,263 410 853 Revised estimates 2,818 635 3,453 1,496 1,957 708 1,250 405 844 Var. (%) (1.2) (1.1) (1.2) (1.0) (1.3) (1.8) (1.1) (1.1) (1.1)
Earlier estimates 2,547 599 3,147 1,314 1,832 546 1,286 417 869
Revised estimates 2,479 608 3,087 1,301 1,786 489 1,296 389 907
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Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF
Company Background
Dena Bank is a mid-size PSU bank, with a balance sheet size of ~`94,000cr. The bank has a branch network of more than 1,400 branches and over 550 ATMs. The bank's branches are mainly concentrated in the rural and semi-urban areas (~52% of overall branches) of the western states (~60% of overall branches) with majority being in the state of Gujarat (~40% of overall branches).
98,641 109,429
98,641 109,429
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Dena Bank No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
11