Professional Documents
Culture Documents
09
UNITED STATES: WEEKLY ABC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN
JAPAN : CONSUMER CONFIRDENCE FELL ON RECORD LOW AND CONVENIENCE STORE DROPPED IN DECEMBER
U.S. STOCKS PLUNGED ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS CONCERNS OVER THE HEALTH OF THE ECONOMY AND
THE FINANCIAL SECTOR OVERSHADOWED
THE PROMISES OF THE NEW PRESIDENT
STATE STREET TUMBLED -59 %
United States: S&P 500 financials index (S5FINL) since 2007
Source : Bloomberg
The S&P 500 financials index slumped again yesterday (-17 %, the lowest since 1995) after State Street
(-59 % during the session) tumbled on concerns the company may have to bring troubled investment
vehicles onto its balance sheet, a move that could force it to raise capital and potentially dilute
shareholders. Bank of America (-29%) was a heavy pressure point on the indexes. Last week, the firm
earned itself a downgrade from Fitch Ratings after it agreed to receive $20 billion in capital to lift itself up
from Merrill Lynch's bad debts. On Monday, the firm said it would pay $475 million to settle a class
action fraud suit brought by Ohio’s State Teachers Retirement System. Citigroup (-20%) lost ground
after media reports that the firm is considering selling its Japanese brokerage unit. The firm said it is
"committed" to Nikko Cordial. Separately, a broker lowered its 2009 and 2010 earnings forecasts for
JPMorgan Chase (-21 %).
Virginia governor Timothy Kaine is scheduled to replace Howard Dean as chairman of the Democratic Party in the US.
The Senate Finance Committee holds hearings on the nomination of Timothy Geithner for Treasury Secretary.
Randall Kroszner resigns from the Fed's Board of Governors.
Anniversary of Lenin's death in 1924
India-ASEAN forum in New Delhi (to January 22nd)
Solar-energy executives convene at a conference in Las Vegas
2009 Michelin Guide published
North American International Auto Show (Detroit) Jan. 11th – 25 th
Today, in the United States, keep an eye on the release of the National Association of Home Builders index for January (7.00 pm). This
gauge of activity in the US housing market is expected to hold unchanged at its lowest level ever, at 9, reflecting virtually no activity on the
housing market (a reading below 50 signals a contraction and the index cannot fall below 0).
/AP
In Germany watch the producer price index for December due at ( 08.00 am) expected to fell following the decrease of energy and
commodity prices and in United-Kingdom have a look on the jobless claims indicator for December due at ( 10.30 am) expected to
increase as the global economic slowdown , the credit crunch and the bank crisis are strongly hitting the economy cutting investment and
destroying jobs. ./JB
ate
ECONOMY
UNITED STATES: WEEKLY ABC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN
The weekly ABC consumer confidence index fell during the week ending on January 18th, from –49 to –53 (no change expected, at –49).
This suggests that the employment market, after a brief halt during the Christmas/New Year Eve period, seems to deteriorate again at a
very fast pace. The rebound in gasoline prices (+10 % since the start of the year) may also contribute to dampen further household’s
sentiment. The ABC consumer confidence index is down back close to its all-time low hit (-54 in late November and early December 2008).
/AP
JAPAN : CONSUMER CONFIRDENCE FELL ON RECORD LOW AND CONVENIENCE STORE DROPPED IN DECEMBER
Japanese recession is deepening as the world demand is going down hitting strongly its exportations and household consumption is
strongly affected as well. As a matter of fact Japan’s consumers confidence became the most pessimistic in at least 26 years dropping at
26.7( prior 28.7) and the recent gloomy economic data underline the fact that recession is deepening and household are strongly affected.
Indeed after the store sales drops released yesterday, today release reveals that convenience store sales increased 6.1% ( prior 7.4%).In
the mean time logically Tokyo condominium sales drops 18.2 % YoY from a year ago ( prior -14.9% YoY) and tertiary industry index
plummet 0.9%( prior +0.5%).As manufacturers are firing workers and reducing wages, the global economic slowdown will be even worst in
the coming months .
ITALY : INDUSTRIAL ORDERS AND INDUSTRIAL SALES AT THEIR LOWEST LEVEL IN NOVEMBER
Before the global financial and now economic crisis, Italian economy already had huge economical structural issues ( weak
competitiveness, lake of research development, wrong sector and geographic specialization …). Consequently Italy as France was
particularly hit by the global economic crisis and the slowdown of the demand. Logically industrial new orders dropped to their lowest level
at -26.2% from a year ago and -6.3% from October ,and industrial sales dropped to a lowest in November at -13.9% from a year ago and
-3.9% since October .
GERMANY :ZEW INVESTORS SENTIMENT INCREASED BUT REMAINS VERY WEAK IN JANUARY
Germany investor sentiment increased in January at -31( prior -45.2) but remains very weak as most of the economic indicators are
gloomy. Especially the Ifo plunge which suggest that the recession is deepening. Germany is particularly hit by the global economic
slowdown strongly cutting the demand for German goods abroad and it is important to notice that China recently over cross Germany at
the third position of the top world economies. This situation put more pressure on a further rate cut from the European central Bank and to
further boosting revival plans otherwise the recession will dangerously last. /JB
U.S. stocks plunged on Tuesday afternoon as concerns over the health of the economy and
the financial sector overshadowed
the promises of the new president
State Street tumbled -59 %
The surge of national optimism that lit up Washington for Inauguration Day as Barack Obama became the 44th
president of the United States didn't extend to Wall Street. Stocks plunged on Tuesday afternoon as concerns over
the health of economy and the financial sector overshadowed the promises of a president who will spend the next four
years trying to heal them. Citigroup () has earmarked its Japanese retail brokerage operation, Nikko Cordial
Securities, for sale, an abrupt reversal from last week comments that underscores the severity of the bank's plight.
Bank of America (-28.96%) was a heavy pressure point on the Dow. Last week, the firm earned itself a downgrade
from Fitch Ratings after it agreed to receive $20 billion in capital to lift itself up from Merrill Lynch's bad debts. On
Monday, the firm said it would pay $475 million to settle a class action fraud suit brought by Ohio’s State Teachers
Retirement System. JP Morgan (-20.72 %) slumped on lower earnings forecasts. Banks were down (Bank of New
York -17.25 %, Goldman Sachs -18.96 %, Morgan Stanley -15.97 %) such as other financials: Manulife Financial
-12.40 %, Travelers -6.55 %, Berkshire Hathaway -4.86 %, Allstate -9.52 %. AIG (-3.52%) CIO Win Neuger plans to
step down and assume a smaller role at the company. Neuger's position lost considerable weight after AIG agreed to
sell its asset management unit as part its larger effort to streamline during the downturn. State Street. (-59.03 %)
reported profits $1.18 ($1.14 exp.)-$1.38 n-1, revenue +8% at $2.67bn Net -70.8% at $65m ($223 n-1). Unrealized
mark to market losses in the investment portfolio increased by $3bn to $6.3bn.Sees net interest income approximately
flat in 2009 compared to 2008, EPS 2009 growth below long term goal of 10-15%.Business pipeline is strong, has
decided not to raise equity capital in turbulent market. Homebuilders slumped : DR Horton -10.47 %, Pulte Homes -
6.64 %, Toll Bros -7.43 %. Intel (-6.40 %) has cut the price of some processors by as much as 48% as its confronts
slumping demand and new lower-cost chips by AMD (-12.66 %). Intel expects margins to bounce back to "healthy"
levels by the second half of 2009. Other semiconductors were down (Applied Materials -7.66 %, Broadcom -7.53 %,
National Semiconductor -6.11 %, Nvidia -9.76 %) such as techs : Microsoft -6.24 %, Oracle -4.79 %, Apple -5.02
%, Dell -4.09 %. Cisco (-5.12 %) plans to start selling servers equipped with virtualization software as early as March.
A move that could position it for tough competition with Hewlett-Packard (-4.11 %) and IBM (-3.46 %). Qualcom (-
5.21 %) acquires Household graphics and Multimedia assets from AMD. Should be approximately $0.02 dilutive in
2009, adding to earnings in H2 2010. Internet was down as well : Google -5.65 %, Amazon -6.11 %, Yahoo ! -5.00 %,
eBay -5.35 %. JP Morgan downgraded the oil sector: oil companies (ExxonMobil -2.32 %, Chevron -4.78 %), oil
services (Halliburton -6.37 %, Schlumberger -7.69 %, Baker Hughes -8.47 %) and refiners (Valero -2.70 %,
Sunoco -6.93 %) were down. ConocoPhilips (-7.47 %) said it would slash its capital budget and lay off 4% of its
workforce, or about 1 350 workers. The company also will take several one-time charges, totalling $34bn, against Q4
earnings. Basic resources slumped as well: Alcoa -11.45 %, Freeport McMoran -9.26 %, Nucor -4.87 %, US Steel
-7.61 %. Pharmaceuticals (Merck -1.06 %, Pfizer -1.71 %) and biotechs (Genentech -3.53 %, Amgen -4.38 %) were
down. Johnson & Johnson (-1.22 %) reported $0.94 ($0.92 exp.) vs. $0.88 n-1, revenue -4.9% at $15.18bn
($15.92bn exp.), US -6.9% and Intl. -2.7%. Pharmaceutical -11.1% and consumer +1.2%.Net +14.3% at $2.714bn
($2.374 n-1), Ebit +14.6%. cut of 9.5% in R&D helped.Sees FY EPS 09 at $4.45-4.55 ($4.62 exp.). Industrials and
defence were down: General Electric -7.38 %, 3M -4.43 %, United Technologies -3.41 %, Boeing -4.95 %, General
Dynamics -4.38 %, General Motors -10.94 %, Ford -2.74 %. Rohm & Haas (-4.25 %) announced a second set of
actions in response to market conditions impacting 900 positions and sees adjusted Q4 EPS above analyst’s view of
$0.64 (will take around $90m in exceptional charges in Q4). Retailers (Target -7.05 %, Kohl’s -5.69 %, Sears -11.62
%, J.C. Penney -9.79 %, Home Depot -5.22 %), consumer stocks and foods (Mc Donald’s -4.36 %, Darden -9.32 %,
Starbucks -6.03 %, Nike -5.68 %, Coca-Cola -2.19 %, Kraft Foods -1.47 %), hotels & leisure (Marriott -6.05 %,
Starwood -7.90 %, Las Vegas Sands -19.62 %, MGM -9.77 %, Wynn Resorts -10.75 %), transport (Burlington -
3.79 %, UPS -4.71 %, FedEx -6.15 %), cyclicals (DuPont -6.61 %) were down. Monsanto (-4.72 %) decreased.
After session : IBM that posted better than expected Q4 results after close rose 4.05 %, Intel +1.09 %, Microsoft
+0.65 %, Wells Fargo +1.55 %, JP Morgan +321 %, Oracle +2.17 %, Yahoo! +1.18 %
The US futures were mixed at 7.50 am : Dow Jones +0.06 %, S&P –0.02 %, Nasdaq –0.41 %. /JFV
Treasuries fell steeply on Tuesday, sending yields higher, with yields on 30-year bonds leaping to their biggest one-
day gain since November, amid ongoing government plans to boost borrowing to shore up banks and the economy.
Investors seeking higher yields have also increasingly moved into riskier assets, such as mortgage-backed securities
and corporate bonds, pressuring the market for government bonds to offer more attractive yields. The Bank of Canada
cut interest rates by 50 bps as expected (Treasuries 2-year rate at 0.71 %, -3 bps, 5-year rate at 1.52 %, -1 bp,
10-year rate at 2.42 %, +4 bps, 30-year rate at 3.02 %, +4 bps). The 10-year Treasury U.S./Europe rate spread was
little changed at -60 bps. /JFV
Asian market dropped this morning amid gloomy economic news and on bank concerns. The Nikkei fell again 2.04 %
below the 8000 level at 7901.34 to a seven-week on bank concerns. The banks sharply retreated on speculation banks
need to bolster capital : Mitsubishi UFJ Financial –3.79 %, Mizuho Financial –4.83 %, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial
–5.38 %, Resona Holding –3.58 %. / LC
Crude Oil prices finally ended higher as traders covered their short positions in last-minute for the February delivery
contract before expiration. The WTI finished up $2.23or +6.11 % at $38.74 a barrel. The February contract slumped
more than 10 % intraday. The March contract was trading $2 higher than the February . The Brent dropped 1.94 % at
$42.64/bbl. This morning, the Brent was down 2.03 % at $41.78 such as the future one month that retreated 1.32 % at
$40.30. / LC
The yen fell from near the highest level in a week against the dollar after U.S. President Obama called on
Americans in his inaugural address yesterday to take responsibility for rebuilding the economy. The yen reversed
earlier gains, as an advance in U.S. stock futures sparked optimism that investors will increase purchases of higher-
yielding assets funded in the Japanese currency (1.2956 EUR/USD vs. 1.3008 yesterday morning, 116..41 EUR/JPY
vs. 117.53, 89.85 USD/JPY vs 90.35). /JFV
DOWN
DOWN
UP
UP
UP
1,85LOUIS VUI
LVMH MOET HENNESSY BNP PARIBAS -13,33 ALCOA INC -11,45 4,35
SKY PERFECT JSAT HOLDINGS T&D HOLDINGS INC -8,25
1,66
DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG-REG RENAULT SA -8,78 GENERAL MOTORS-10,94
CORP 3,50
CITIZEN HOLDINGS CO LTD -7,83 IN
SOMPO JAPAN INSURANCE
BASF SE 0,75 BANCO SANTANDER-7,57
SA -8,29
AMERICAN EXPRESS CO 2,75 CO LTD
CHUGAI PHARMACEUTICAL OJI PAPER CO LTD -7,76
SOC GEN & CREDIT AGRICOLE are working on a combination of their asset management subsidiaries, SGAM and
Credit Agricole AM
ALLIANZ “is not interested in acquisitions and does not need additional capital management” (Board member)
CONTINENTAL : Schaeffler CEO is looking for ways to take control of the whole of automotive supplier (Handelsblatt)
THYSSENKRUPP is planning to sell parts of its Transrapid maglev train technology to China (Handelsblatt)
HRX received €12bn in debt guarantees, giving it access to financing amid the credit crunch / HRX can borrow against
the guarantees,
granted by Soffin, through June 12. / Also faces an April repayment for €30bn in debt guarantees extended earlier this
month
CHIP SECTOR : Shares of DRAM makers jumped in Taiwan as talks to consolidate DRAM industry gained pace, with
major domestic and foreign players meeting officials in a bid to reach deals / Analysts said govt funds bought some
heavyweights such as TSMC & UMC
IBM : Q4 sales $27bn ($28.2bn e) / EPS $3.28 ($3.03 e) / GM 47.9%, +3% points from 2008 / Sees 2009 EPS at least
$9.20 ($8.75 e)
INTEL’s CEO said the company may record a loss in the Q1…
CITIGROUP cut its quarterly dividend to $0.01 per share (No surprise)
CREDIT SUISSE would have lost around SFR1bn each week in October through trading operations (HandelsZeitung)
GDF SUEZ - E.ON : Brussels could fine in the next few day both companies for illegal collusion in the gas market (La
Tribune)
GAS NAT : Spain's antitrust authority is warning that a tie-up between Gas Natural and Union Fenosa would boost the
resulting company's power in the gas and electricity sectors (Cinco Dias) / Both companies have until Jan. 30 to submit
their replies
DEUTSCHE BK : 2 of DBK's hedge funds, CQ Capital & Distressed Opportunities, suffered "massive losses" last year
(Sued. Zeitung)
BHP will cut 6% of its workforce + close its giant Ravensthorpe nickel mine in Australia with a $1.6 bn writedown, its
biggest in 9 years
STANDARD LIFE is writing to 97k customers to tell them a cash fund was invested in mortgage debt that has fallen in
value (Guardian)
ROCHE said the European Commission has approved RoACTEMRA to treat patients with rheumatoid arthritis
BNP : Bancwest Long-Term debt outlook to negative from stable at Moody’s
ERICSSON : Q4 rev. SK67bn (58.4bn e) / GM 33.6% (36.7% e) / Operating SK9.2bn (7.8bn e) ex one-off charge of
SK3bn / Cut div. to SK1.85(SK2.5 exp) / Plans5K jobs cuts & annual savings of SK10bn from H210 & sees 6-7bn
charges / “Hard to predict 2009”
CAP GEMINI : Indian No.3 outsourcer Wipro met expectations but gave a downbeat outlook…
BANK OF NY : Q4 EPS $0.87 ex-items ($0.69 exp) / Tier1 capital ratio for the latest quarter was 13.1%
UNILEVER RAISED TO BUY FROM HOLD BY CITIGROUP
6
85
80 5,5
75
5
70
65 4,5
60
55 4
50
3,5
45
40 3
35
30 2,5
25
20 2
15 1,5
10
5 1
22/01/2007 22/07/2007 22/01/2008 22/07/2008 22/01/2009 22/01/2007 22/07/2007 22/01/2008 22/07/2008 22/01/2009
5,5 1,2
5,25 1
5
0,8
4,75
0,6
4,5
4,25 0,4
4 0,2
3,75
0
3,5
3,25 -0,2
3 -0,4
2,75
-0,6
2,5
2,25 -0,8
2 -1
22/01/2007 22/07/2007 22/01/2008 22/07/2008 22/01/2009 22/01/2007 22/07/2007 22/01/2008 22/07/2008 22/01/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg
150 1,65
140
1,6
130
1,55
120
110 1,5
100
1,45
90
1,4
80
70 1,35
60
1,3
50
40
1,25
30 1,2
22/01/2007 22/07/2007 22/01/2008 22/07/2008 22/01/2009 22/01/2007 22/07/2007 22/01/2008 22/07/2008 22/01/2009