22 Jan.

09


 
 
United States : The NABH housing market reached its lowest level in January
ITALY : THE TRADE BALANCE IS GETTING WORST IN NOVEMBER
 
Stocks were higher on Wednesday on President Obama's first full day on the job

 


National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Index
since January 2000










         

Source : Bloomberg
The NAHB housing market index reached its lowest level at 8 ( prior 9 ) in January meaning
that the confidence among U.S. homebuilders is at its lowest level underlining the fact that
housing slump will get worst in the upcoming year and will deepened the recession. Financial
crisis, tight credit conditions, rise of the unemployment and global recession indicates that the
construction sector crisis is in a lasting trend.

Indexes Price % 5 Days Ytd Forex Price % 5 Days Ytd

DJIA 8228,1 -2,53% -6,25% EUR/USD 1,3006 -0,88% -6,95%
S&P 500 840,2 -3,59% -6,98% EUR/JPY 115,91 1,73% -8,58%
Nasdaq 1507,1 -2,55% -4,44% USD/JPY 89,14 0,81% -1,71%
CAC 40 2905,6 -4,80% -9,71% Oil Price % 5 Days Ytd
DAX 4261,2 -3,65% -11,41% Brent $/b 43,8 -1,84% 4,60%
Eurostoxx 50 2188,4 -4,75% -10,59% Gold Price % 5 Days Ytd
DJ 600 184,5 -4,30% -6,98% Gold $/oz 853,9 4,40% -3,20%
FTSE 100 4059,9 -2,84% -8,44% Rates USA Euro Japan
Nikkei 8051,7 -6,36% -9,12% Central Banks* 0,25 2,00 0,13
Shanghai Comp 2005,0 2,91% 10,11% Overnight 0,15 1,38 0,13
Sensex (India) 8813,1 -6,31% -8,65% 3 Months 0,11 1,25 0,23
MICEX (Russia) 583,4 -4,42% -5,83% 10 Years** 2,56 3,09 1,24
Bovespa (Brasil) 38542,9 1,48% 2,64% *US: Fed Funds; Jap: Overnight; Euro: Refi
** Euro: German Bund rate Source : Bloomberg
                


The Bank of Japan ends a two-day meeting, and announces its decision on interest rates.
Meeting of the European Union employment and social affairs ministers in the Czech Republic (to January 24)
Monthly Bulletin of the ECB
Oscar nominations released
The Santa Barbara International Film Festival is due to start in California (to February 1).
India-ASEAN forum in New Delhi (to January 22nd)
North American International Auto Show (Detroit) Jan. 11th – 25 th






Time Country Indicator Period GE forecasts Consensus Previous

0.50 am Japan Adjusted merchandise trade balance December -¥328,5 bn -¥367,6 bn
3.00 am China GDP 4th quarter +6,8 % YoY +9,0 % YoY
3.00 am China Annual GDP 2008 +9,2 % +13,0 %
3.00 am China Producer price index December -0,1 % YoY +2,0 % YoY
3.00 am China Consumer price index December +1,6 % YoY +2,4 % YoY
3.00 am China Retail sales December +19,5 % YoY +20,8 % YoY
3.00 am China Industrial production December +4,2 % YoY +5,4 % YoY
4.00 am Japan BoJ target rate 0,10 % 0,10 %
6.00 am Japan Supermarket sales December +0,6 % YoY
8.45 am France Consumer spending December 0,0 % -0,2 %, -0,6 % YoY +0,3 %, +1,0 % YoY
10.00 am Euro area ECM monthly report January
11.00 am Euro area Industrial new orders November -5,0 %, -20,0 % YoY -4,7 %, -15,1 % YoY
1.00 pm United States Weekly mortgage applications January 17th +15,8 %
Housing starts 625 000 605 000 625 000
2.30 pm United States December
Building permits 600 000 615 000
2.30 pm United States Initial jobless claims January 17th 540 000 524 000
4.00 pm United States House price index November -1,2 % -1,1 %






Results Cette bombe qui menace les marchés boursiers

BBVA / Nokia (11.00 GMT) / ST Micro (after US close) / La Tribune, p.1
Fiat / Microsoft / AMD (AMC) / Sun Micro / Google / Berlin table sur une contraction de 2.25 % du PIB
Lockeed Martin La Tribune, p.6
Les grandes banques françaises bénéficiaires malgré la
Dividend crise
Colgate Palmolive ($0.40) Les Echos, p.1
La caisse des Dépôts pourrait être en perte pour la
première fois
Les Echos, p.1
Nationalization fears grow as U.K banks sink further
The Wall Street Journal, p 32
Oil volatility to stay
Financial Times, p 28

Global Equities – Institutional Financial Services Company

23, rue Balzac – 75008 Paris - Standard : + 33 (0) 1 444 333 00 – Fax : + 33 (0) 1 70 70 19 19 -2-
www.global-equities.com
             

Economic data preview

Today ,watch in the United-states the release of the housing starts for December due at 14.30 am which are expected to be stable but
at a very low level , indeed the U.S. households are strongly hit by the credit crunch and by the jump of the unemployment reducing
significantly their purchased power and as a consequence hitting the real estate market and the housing starts ./JB

ate

ECONOMY

UNITED STATES : THE NABH HOUSING MARKET REACHED ITS LOWEST LEVEL IN JANUARY
The NAHB housing market index reached its lowest level at 8 ( prior 9 ) in January meaning that the confidence among U.S. homebuilders
is at its lowest level underlining the fact that housing slump will get worst in the upcoming year and will deepened the recession. Financial
crisis, tight credit conditions, rise of the unemployment and global recession indicates that the construction sector crisis is in a lasting
trend.

ITALY : THE TRADE BALANCE IS GETTING WORST IN NOVEMBER

Italian economy which was already facing huge structural issues before the global financial turmoil and now global economic recession is
particularly hit . Indeed the strong decrease of the demand add to the lake of competitiveness of its product is catastrophic for the Italian
external trade. As a matter of fact the trade balance slumped to - €1078.0 millions ( previous -€ 62.0 millions ) and has the recession is
deepening ,2009 will be a terrible year for Italian external trade.

UNITED KINGDOM: UNEMPLOYMENT IS WORSENING IN JANUARY

United -Kingdom economy is strongly hit by the financial turmoil and the by the credit crunch . The country is facing a deep and lasting
recession and companies are cutting investments. As a matter of fact claimant count rate increase from 3.3% to 3.6% and jobless claims
change are still at a very high level at 77.9 thousand ( prior 83.1 thousand ). In this very difficult economic situation the public sector net
credit requirement jumped from £ 8.9 billions to £ 44.2 billions underlining the huge financial needs of the government. On the other hand
the M4 money supply rose from 1.2%to 1.7%. To fight the recession the Bank of England decreased its leading rate from 2.00% to 1.5%
and only one vote was in favour of a larger cut. /JB

Global Equities – Institutional Financial Services Company

23, rue Balzac – 75008 Paris - Standard : + 33 (0) 1 444 333 00 – Fax : + 33 (0) 1 70 70 19 19 -3-
www.global-equities.com
             

Stocks were higher on Wednesday on President Obama's first full day on the job
Stocks were higher on Wedndesday on President Obama's first full day on the job, indicating a dramatic change in
traders' moods since Tuesday's ugly session. The biggest rally came in financials. Bank of America (+30.98%),
Citigroup (+31.07%) and JPMorgan Chase (+25.09%) each held substantial gains in afternoon trading, bouncing
back as the president met with economic advisors to discuss, among other things, shoring up the nation's banks.
Insider buying buoyed Bank of America shares. The sector was upbeat: American Express +8.14 %, Bank of New
York +21.05 %, Goldman Sachs +18.07 %, Morgan Stanley +28.70 %. Other financials were on the upside as well:
Visa +4.15 %, MasterCard +10.84 %, Ambac +10.20 %, AIG +5.84 %, Allstate +8.11 %, Fannie Mae +17.46 %,
Berkshire Hathaway +2.44 %. State Street (-2.53 %) lowered again after Tuesday’s plunge (-59 %). Homebuilders
were mixed: DR Horton +4.12 %, Centex -0.20 %. IBM (+11.52 %) actually provided some excitement. The firm
caught analysts and traders off guard when it posted a better-than-expected quarter and 2009 guidance well above
consensus estimates. IBM said it believes it can capitalize off the downturn by marketing its products as cost-effective.
Techs were sharply up (Microsoft +4.87 %, Apple +5.92 %, Hewlett-Packard +5.31 %, Motorola +4.64 %,
Symantec +7.52 %, Cisco +4.60 %) such as semiconductors: Nvidia +4.85 %, Intel +3.11 %, AMD +12.50 %, Sun
Microsystems +6.84 %, Broadcom +6.00 %. Internet rebounded: Google +7.19 %, Yahoo! +5.27 %, eBay +5.82 %,
Amazon.com +4.34 %. Oil companies (ExxonMobil +3.89 %, Chevron +4.28 %, ConocoPhilips +8.08 %, Marathon
 +7.81 %, Anadarko +5.80 %), oil services (Halliburton +6.68 %, Schlumberger +5.87 %, Noble +11.97 %, Nabors
 +11.70 %, Baker Hughes +8.77 %) and refiners (Valero +6.63 %, Sunoco +3.99 %) soared. With the exception of
Wal-Mart (-2.81 %), retailers were on the upside: J.C. Penney +2.99 %, Target +4.89 %, Sears +3.82 %, Dillards
+5.54 %, Kohl’s +4.64 %, Nordstrom +8.49 %, Collective Brands +6.49 %, Office Depot +3.14 %. Pharmaceuticals
were mixed: Merck -1.15 %, Pfizer +1.63 %, BMS +3.36 %. Media (Time Warner +5.48 %, Gannett +4.42 %, Walt
Disney +4.89 %), transport (Burlington +7.09 %, Union Pacific +7.11 %, FedEx +3.46 %), industrials (Boeing
+4.73 %, Deere +5.36 %, Honneywell +2.73 %), hotels & leisure (Las Vegas Sands +10.12 %, Wynn Resorts +6.16
%), consumer stocks (Mc Donald’s +2.86 %, Colgate +1.39 %, Nike +3.44 %) rose. Telcos were mixed: AT&T +3.08
%, Verizon +3.45 %, QWest -1.67 %, Sprint +8.74 %. Airlines nosedived: Delta -8.51 %, AMR -23.71 %, Continental
-11.05 %, JetBlue -10.58 %.

AFTER SESSION: Apple (+9.5 %) reported Q1 sales and profits that topped analysts’ estimates. eBay (-6.1 %)
dropped. The world’s largest internet auctioneer expects to earn as much as 34 cents a share in Q1. That trailed the
39-cent average estimate from analysts. Paypal and Skype helped the overall business. JP Morgan (+3.67 %) rose.

This morning (6.40 GMT) INDEX FUTURES for March expiry were up: DJIA +0.46 %, S&P 500 +0.56 %, Nasdaq
+1.48 %./JFV
Treasuries fell late Wednesday, pushing 10-year note yields up to the highest in a month, as U.S equity markets held
onto some of the morning's gains. Investors expect debt issuance to increase this fiscal year, possibly beyond the $2
trillion already anticipated, as President Barack Obama supports billions of dollars in government programs to revive

the economy. Eyes were on Congress as it decides whether to confirm Timothy Geithner, current head of the New
 York Federal Reserve, as treasury secretary (Treasurys 2-year rate at 0.75 %, +4bps, 5-year rate at 1.60 %, +8 bps,
10-year rate at 2.53 %, +11bps, 30-year rate at 3.16 %, +14 bps). The 10-year Treasury U.S./Europe rate spread
was flat at -61 bps. /JFV
Japan’s markets rose 150.10 or 1.90 % to close at 8,051.74 in Tokyo , increasing after two drop sessions following
Wall Street and ignoring the gloomy forecast of the Japanese external trade. Investors ignored bleak forecast of the
Japanese central bank which anticipate two years in a row of economic recession. The market was positively impacted
by the measures from the central bank aiming to rescue companies facing financing difficulties and measures easing
 global financial turmoil. Oil sector went up led by the rebound of the barrel( INPEX+2.84%), component sector went up
 ( NTT+7.04%,Tokyo electron +3.73%,Nec+3.45%), financials went up ( Nomura+4.73%,Credit Saison
+3.72%),Distribution sector went up ( Fast retailing +7.50%,Seven&Holdings+3.59%),
Telecom sector went significantly up ( KDDI+4.54%,Trend micro+3.46%) On the other hand car sector went down (
Toyota-4.20%,Mazda-3.95%,Honda-3.36%)and electronic sector went slightly down( Sony-2.56%,Pionner-
1.69%,Canon -1.65%)./JB
Crude oil prices surged on concerns OPEC oil cartel could cut again their production quota and ahead of the
inventories data released today. The Barack Obama’s economic stimulus package also drove the prices higher on
hopes it would boost demand. Note that the market is still in a contango situation in which the prices of a short-term
 future is worth less than a long-term. The WTI climbed 9.06 % at $42.25 a barrel while crude oil for March delivery
ended above $43 level at $43.55/bbl . The Brent that rose 4.12 % yesterday at $44.40 a barrel was losing ground this
morning at $43.43/bbl. The US futures one-month were slightly down 0.18% at $43.47 (7.10 am GMT). /LC
The yen rose for a fourth day against the pound, approaching a record high, on speculation the deepening financial
crisis will force the U.K. government to nationalize banks (123.39 GBP/JPY). The yen also versus the euro and the
 dollar. The pound approached a 23-year low versus the dollar as the BoE may cut rates again next month (1.3024
EUR/USD vs. 1.2956 yesterday morning, 116.12 EUR/JPY vs. 116.41, 89.16 USD/JPY vs. 89.85). /JFV

Global Equities – Institutional Financial Services Company

23, rue Balzac – 75008 Paris - Standard : + 33 (0) 1 444 333 00 – Fax : + 33 (0) 1 70 70 19 19 -4-
www.global-equities.com
             

Europe America Asia

Indices 21/1/09 % Chg Indices 21/1/09 % Chg Indices 22/1/09 % Chg
EuroStoxx 50  2188 -0,56% DJIA  8228 +3,51% Nikkei  8052 +1,90%
DJ 600  185 -0,64% S&P 500  840 +4,35% Topix  796 +1,11%
FTSE 100  4060 -0,77% NASDAQ  1507 +4,60% Hong Kong  12800 +1,79%
DAX (XETRA)  4261 +0,50% TSX  8758 +2,97% Singapore  1730 +1,62%
CAC 40  2906 -0,67% Bolsa (Mexico)  19497 +1,48% South Korea  1116 +1,14%
AEX (Pays Bas)  238 -1,00% Bovespa (Br.)  38543 +3,41% Thailand  441 +2,32%
SMI (Suisse)  5304 -0,32% Merval (Argent.)  1063 +1,73% Indonesia  1323 +0,23%
S&P / MIB (Italie)  18554 -2,07% IPSA (Chili)  11782 +1,48% Taiwan  CLOSED
IBEX 35 (Esp.)  8231 -0,55% IGBVL (Pérou)  6965 -0,39% China  2005 +1,00%
BVL (Portugal)  2051 -1,03%
Source : Bloomberg India  8798 +0,39%
Euro Stoxx 50 % Euro Stoxx 50 % Dow Jones % Dow Jones % Nikkei 225 % Nikkei 225 %
10,29
SOCIETE GENERALE INTESA SANPAOLO -5,26 31,07
CITIGROUP INC WAL-MART STORES-2,81
INC 8,97
MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE GR -7,26
NITTO BOSEKI CO LTD
ALSTOM 5,66 -3,15 AG-REG
MUENCHENER RUECKVER JPMORGAN CHASE25,10
& CO MERCK & CO. INC. -1,15 FAST RETAILING CO7,50
LTD YOKOHAMA RUBBER -5,32
CO LTD
DOWN

DOWN

DOWN
UP

UP

UP
4,63
CREDIT AGRICOLE SA SANOFI-AVENTIS -3,12 11,52 CORPALTRIA GROUP INC -1,11
INTL BUSINESS MACHINES NTT DATA CORP 7,04 CLARION CO LTD -4,84
3,92
DEUTSCHE BANK AG-REGISTERED
GDF SUEZ -3,02 AMERICAN EXPRESS8,14
CO JOHNSON & JOHNSON-0,69 JGC CORP 6,92 -4,76 LTD
FUJI HEAVY INDUSTRIES
3,91
PHILIPS ELECTRONICS NV ENI SPA -2,93 5,84 GROUP
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL -0,22 CORP
UNITED TECHNOLOGIES 6,84 INC TOYOTA MOTOR CORP
DAIWA SECURITIES GROUP -4,20

Global Equities – Institutional Financial Services Company

23, rue Balzac – 75008 Paris - Standard : + 33 (0) 1 444 333 00 – Fax : + 33 (0) 1 70 70 19 19 -5-
www.global-equities.com
      


MORRISON : Chrismas LFL sales ex-fuel up 8.2% (+7.6% exp) / Expectations for the FY profit outturn for 2008/09
remain unchanged
POSTBANK : Soffin hasn't received an application for aid from DPB (Source)
HYPO REAL ESTATE may have to agree to split off DEPFA BANK to avoid collapse (Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung )
IRISH LIFE PERMANENT is still planning to raise €1bn through a bond sale as soon as markets stabilize (CEO)

APPLE : Q1 sales $10.17bn (9.75bn e) / EPS $1.78 (1.39 e) but sales of the iPhone fell sharply in October-
December from the previous quarter to 4.3 m phones (5m exp) / Sees Q2 EPS $0.90-1.00 (1.13 e) with sales $7.6-8bn
($8.20bn e) / Up 8% after close
JPM: CEO Jamie Dimon bought 500k shares at $22.92 per share on Jan. 16. ($11.5m)


CREDIT AGRICOLE (Yesterday) prices 1.25bn 2016 bond , 4.5% at SWAPS +135bp (Source) / Separately, Agricultural
Bank of China would be in talks to introduce Credit Agricole as a strategic investor before its planned US$25.6 bn listing
in 2010 (HK Economic Times)
KBC has reached agreement with the Flemish regional government for a non-dilutive, core capital injection of €2 bn
with right to issue further €1.5bn of core capital to flemish Govt for at least 5 years / Writedowns on CDO €2.5bn / Q4
derivative loss of €200m
FIAT : The Exor holding company of Agnelli family is weighing a possible capital increase of about €2 bn for Fiat (La
Repubblica) / The capital hike would be aimed at keeping a significant stake in a merged company in case of an alliance
with Peugeot …
CREDIT SUISSE had its long-term senior debt rating placed on “watch negative” by Fitch
UBS ’s individual rating was downgraded by Fitch and placed on “rating watch negative.”

EBAY : Q4 revenue $2.04bn (2.12bn e) / EPS $0.41 (0.39 e) / Sees Q1 EPS $0.32-0.34 (0.40 e)with rev. $1.80-2.05bn
(2.10bn e)
TSMC : Q4 sales NT$64.56 bn (66.5bn exp) / GM 31.3% / Operating margin 18.6% (25% exp) / Sees Q1 GM between
1-5%
LG ELECTRONICS : Q4 operating loss W309.8bn (-201bn e) / Sold 25.7m mobile phonesin the Q4 vs 23m units in
the Q3
SONY forecast a much bigger-than-expected annual operating loss due to “a sharp appreciation in the yen, steep
price falls and restructuring costs” = Now expects an operating loss of 260bn yen for the year ending March 31 (+9bn
yen exp) / Conf call 0830 GMT


ADECCO RAISED TO BUY FROM NEUTRAL BY GOLDMAN SACHS
BEST BUY RAISED TO BUY FROM HOLD BY DEUTSCHE BANK
ERICSSON RAISED TO BUY FROM REDUCE BY NOMURA
ERICSSON RAISED TO NEUTRAL FROM SELL BY GOLDMAN SACHS

S&P DOWNGRADES LAFARGE TO BBB OUTLOOK STILL NEGATIVE

LOGITECH CUT TO SELL FROM HOLD BY CITIGROUP

H&M CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT FROM NEUTRAL BY JP MORGAN
ERAMET CUT TO UNDERPERFORM BY MERRILL LYNCH

Global Equities – Institutional Financial Services Company

23, rue Balzac – 75008 Paris - Standard : + 33 (0) 1 444 333 00 – Fax : + 33 (0) 1 70 70 19 19 -6-
www.global-equities.com
      

 
6
85
80 5,5
75
5
70
65 4,5
60
55 4
50
3,5
45
40 3
35
30 2,5
25
20 2
15 1,5
10
5 1
22/01/2007 22/07/2007 22/01/2008 22/07/2008 22/01/2009 22/01/2007 22/07/2007 22/01/2008 22/07/2008 22/01/2009

Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg

 
5,5 1,2
5,25 1
5
0,8
4,75
0,6
4,5
4,25 0,4
4 0,2
3,75
0
3,5
3,25 -0,2
3 -0,4
2,75
-0,6
2,5
2,25 -0,8

2 -1
22/01/2007 22/07/2007 22/01/2008 22/07/2008 22/01/2009 22/01/2007 22/07/2007 22/01/2008 22/07/2008 22/01/2009
Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg

 
150 1,65
140
1,6
130
1,55
120
110 1,5
100
1,45
90
1,4
80
70 1,35
60
1,3
50
40
1,25

30 1,2
22/01/2007 22/07/2007 22/01/2008 22/07/2008 22/01/2009 22/01/2007 22/07/2007 22/01/2008 22/07/2008 22/01/2009

Source : Bloomberg Source : Bloomberg

Global Equities – Institutional Financial Services Company

23, rue Balzac – 75008 Paris - Standard : + 33 (0) 1 444 333 00 – Fax : + 33 (0) 1 70 70 19 19 -7-
www.global-equities.com
        

      

     
   
 
     

     


   
     
     


   
     

   
Small & Mid Caps
Jean de HENNEZEL Junior Financial Analyst  

     

   
   
     
    
     
     
     
     
    
     
     
     
   
     
    
    
    

   
   
 

     

   
   
    
    
    
    
 

  

   
   
     
     
     
     
 
     

     

   
    


  

   
   
   
   
   


Global Equities – Institutional Financial Services Company

23, rue Balzac – 75008 Paris - Standard : + 33 (0) 1 444 333 00 – Fax : + 33 (0) 1 70 70 19 19 -8-
www.global-equities.com