Commodities & Currencies Weekly Tracker

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | November 19, 2012

Contents
Returns Non Agri Commodities Currencies Agri Commodities Non-Agri Commodities Gold Silver Copper Crude Oil Currencies DX, Euro, INR Agri Commodities Chana Black Pepper Turmeric Jeera Soybean Refine Soy Oil & CPO Sugar Kapas

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | November 26, 2012

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | November 26, 2012

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | November 26, 2012

*Weekly Performance for December contract; Kapas - April 2013 contract.

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | November 26, 2012

GoldPrice Performance Weekly

Spot gold prices gained 1.4 percent week on week . The yellow metal touched weekly high of $1,754.10/oz and closed at $1,752.50 on Friday. On the MCX, Gold December contract ended 1.4 percent higher taking cues from strength in the spot gold prices along with depreciation in the Indian rupee. Gold prices on the MCX closed at Rs.32,281/10 gms on Friday after touching a weekly high of Rs. 32,309/ 10gms. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchangetraded fund, declined 0.03 percent to 1342.197 tonnes till November 23rd, 2012 as compared to 1342.63 tonnes till November 16th, 2012. Speculation that Greece might be able to receive a bailout along with unexpected rise in the business sentiment of the German. This strengthened Euro thereby weighing on the US Dollar Index. Positive economic data from the Us also supported an upside in the gold prices. Further, reports of improved buying by the central bankers in the wake of persistent concerns of the Euro zone . In the coming week, we expect gold prices to remain firm due to positive global market sentiments. Weakness in the DX is also expected to support an upside in the gold prices. Prices might also take cues from the European policy makers meeting scheduled 26th November and decision on Greece bailout. Spot Gold : Support $1,720/1,690 Resistance $1,765/1,780. (CMP: 1749.10) Buy MCX Gold Dec between 32000-32050, SL - 31690, Target - 32500 / 32550 (CMP: 32428)

ETF Performance

Factors that influenced gold prices

Outlook

Weekly Technical Levels

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | November 26, 2012

Silver

Weekly Price Performance

Spot silver gained 2.5 percent week on week. The white metal touched a weekly high of $34.13/oz and closed at $34.10/oz on Friday. In the Indian markets, MCX silver prices gained 2.2 percent and closed at Rs. 63,526/kg on Friday and touched a weekly high of Rs. 63,620 /kg. MCX silver prices continued to extend gains of the previous week on the back of depreciation in the Indian rupee. Bullishness the spot gold prices along with weakness in the DX. Strength in the base metals pack along with positive manufacturing data from the China. Expectation that the demand for the industrial metal might increase in the coming months. On a weekly basis, holdings in the iShares Silver Trust fell by 1.2 percent to 9,818 tonnes till November 23rd, 2012 from previous week holdings of 9940.01 tonnes till November 16th, 2012. Silver prices in the coming week is expected to trade firm on the back of positive global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. Speculation that European policy makers might be able to agree upon aid to Greece might push prices upwards. In the domestic markets depreciation in the Indian Rupee might support an upside in the MCX Silver prices. Spot Silver : Support 32.80/31.50 Resistance $35/36 (CMP: 34.7) Buy MCX SILVER Dec between 61900-62000, SL - 60700, Target - 63800 / 64200. (CMP: 63936)

Factors that influenced silver prices

ETF performance

Outlook

Weekly Technical Levels

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | November 26, 2012

Copper

Weekly Price Performance

Copper, erased earlier losses of the last week and gained 0.7 percent and closed at $7,779.8/tonne on Friday. Decline in LME Copper inventories by 1.7 percent acted as a supportive factor for the copper prices in the last week. LME Copper stocks stood at 2,49,825 tonnes from the previous level of 2, 54,050 tonnes on 16th 2012. Copper inventories at warehouse monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1.2 percent to 2,05,933 in the w/e 16th November. Positive economic data from the US and China indicating the two consuming nations are on the path of recovery. Decline in the LME inventories. Weakness in the DX, along with positive global market sentiments . In the domestic market , depreciation in the Indian rupee pushed prices upwards. Copper prices in the coming week is expected to remain firm due to positive global market sentiments along with speculation that European policy makers might be able to agree on Greece bailout. Weakness in the DX is also expected to exert downside pressure on the copper prices. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee will act as a supportive factor for the copper prices on MCX. Buy MCX Copper Nov between 423-426, SL - 415, Target - 438 / 440 LME Copper: Support $7,640/7,480 Resistance $7,935/8,025. (CMP: $7,770)

Copper Inventories

Factors that influenced copper prices

Outlook

Weekly Technical Levels

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | November 26, 2012

Crude Oil
Weekly Price Performance
On a weekly basis, NYMEX crude oil prices gained 1.9 percent. On the domestic bourses, prices rose 1.6 percent and closed at Rs.4,906 per bbl on Friday after touching a high of Rs.4,941/bbl in the last week. As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report released last week, US crude oil inventories fell 1.47 million barrels in the week to Nov. 16 to 374.47 million barrels for the week ending on 16th November 2012. U.S. gasoline stockpiles fell 1.55 million barrels to 200.39 million barrels. U.S. inventories of distillates declined by 2.68 million barrels to 112.84 million barrels. Favorable data from the US and China raised hopes that the demand in the coming months might improve . Weakness in the DX along with decline in the crude oil inventories. Depreciation in the Indian rupee supported an upside in the crude oil prices on the MCX. Crude oil prices are expected to remain weak in the coming week on the a back of cease fire called upon by the Israel and Palestinian leaders easing supply concerns. Weakness in the DX is however, expected to cushion sharp fall in crude oil prices. In Indian markets depreciation in the Rupee will act as the supportive factor for the crude prices on MCX. Buy MCX Crude Dec between 4775-4815, SL - 4650, Target - 5010 / 5050 (CMP: 4917) Nymex Crude Oil: Support: $86.20/83.65 Resistance $90.25/92.10(CMP: 87.76)

US Energy Department Facts and Figures

Factors that influenced crude oil prices

Crude Oil Inventories (mn barrels)

390 380 370 360 350 340 330 320

Outlook

Weekly Technical Levels

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | November 26, 2012

DX/ INR

Weekly Price Performance

The US Dollar Index (DX) declined 1.3 percent on a weekly basis. The Indian Rupee depreciated 0.5 percent in the last week. US Dollar Index on the back of rise in the risk appetite in the global markets resulting from speculation that European policy makers might agree upon providing aid to Greece. This reduced the demand for the low yielding currency that is US Dollar Index (DX). Further, positive data from the US also created upbeat market sentiments thereby weighing on the index . The index touched a weekly low of 80.16 and closed at 80.24 on Friday. The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.5 percent in the last week. from dollar demand from the oil importers and banks. Sentiments in the domestic markets became weak as the parliament was adjourned for the second day without discussions over the reforms. However, weakness in the DX along with upbeat global market sentiment capped sharp depreciation in the currency. Additionally, sharp fall in the currency was cushioned as a result of increasing FIIs inflows in the country. The currency It touched a weekly low of 55.60 and closed at 55.44 on Friday. For the current month FII inflows totaled at Rs. 5710.80 crores till 23rd November 2012. While year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs. 99405.70 crores till 23rd November 2012. We expect rupee to depreciate in the current week on the back of month end dollar demand. However sustained capital inflows along with weakness in the DX is expected to cap sharp depreciation in the currency. USD/INR MCX December : Support 55.3/54.8 Resistance 56.4/57 (CMP:56.06) US Dollar Index: Support 79.8/79.4 Resistance 80.95/81.5 (CMP: 80.22)

Factors that influenced movement in the DX

Factors that influenced movement in the Rupee

FII Inflows

Outlook

Weekly Technical Levels

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | November 26, 2012

Euro

Weekly Price Performance

Euro gained 0.7 percent week on week. The currency touched a weekly high of 1.2991 and closed at 1.2975 on Friday. Speculation that European policy makers might agree to provide aid to Greece in the coming week created bullish market sentiments. Weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the currency. Positive economic data from the Germany also added to the gains of the currency. German Ifo Business Climate rose to 101.4 levels in the month of November as compared to 100 levels in the month of October. French Flash Manufacturing PMI increased to 44.7 levels in the month of November as compared to 43.7 levels in the last month. German Flash Manufacturing PMI also rose to 46.8 levels in the current month as compared to 46 levels in the month of October. French Flash Services PMI increased to 46.1 levels in the current month as compared to 44.6 levels in October. European nation Flash Services PMI declined to 45.7 levels in current month We expect the Euro to trade with a positive bias due to upbeat global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. The currency is likely to take cues from the European finance ministers meeting to be scheduled on November 26, 2012 to negotiate and agree on the aid for Greece. Any positive outcome from the meeting is expected to ease debt concerns of the Euro zone thereby strengthening Euro. EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.2826/1.273 (CMP:1.2969) Resistance 1.308/1.315

Factors that influenced movement in the Euro

News

Outlook

Weekly Technical Levels

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | November 26, 2012

Chana
Weekly Price Performance
Chana spot settled 3.6% lower w-o-w on subdued demand and expectations of higher imports in the coming week. Improved pace of sowing was also pressurizing Chana prices. Total pulses acreage as on 23rd November is down by 8% to 85.1 lakh ha from 92.49 lakh ha last season. Acreage was down by almost 17% till the previous week and thus shown some recovery in the sowing. In Maharashtra Chana acreage is up by 39% at 6.8 lakh ha as on 23rd Nov. While in AP it is up by 35% at 4.93 lakh ha. However, in Rajasthan, sowing is down by 11% at 11.36 lakh ha. MSP of Chana/Gram is raised by Rs 400 per qtl for 2012-13 season to Rs 3200. Higher returns and favorable soil condition will boost acreage in 2012-13. Due to lower availability of Chana amid drop in output in 2011-12 season, imports are expected to increase in the coming months. The Commission for Agriculture Costs and Prices (CACP) has suggested 10% import duty on pulses to encourage domestic production. In the first six months of 2012-13 (Apr to Sept), imports were an estimated 12 lakh tonnes.

Chana sowing to gain momentum

MSP Hike to boost Chana sowing

CACP suggested 10% import duty on Pulses

Chana output targeted at 7.9 mn tn after poor Kharif harvest The Farm ministry has targeted higher rabi pulses output, particularly Chana at 7.9 mn tn vs. 7.5 mn tn in previous year.

Outlook
Chana prices are expected to remain under downside pressure in the coming weeks on expected higher imports. Also, demand is expected to remain weak as festival season is almost over. Sell NCDEX Chana Dec between 4290-4340, SL -4530, Target - 4000 / 3970

Weekly Strategy

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | November 26, 2012

Black Pepper
Weekly Price Performance
Pepper traded on a negative note for the fourth consecutive week. Prices have corrected on expectations of better domestic as well as international pepper output this year. Also, reports that FMC has launched a probe into an alleged market manipulation of pepper futures contracts by certain market participants pressurized prices. however, festive as well as winter demand supported prices at lower levels. The harvesting of the new crop is expecting to start mid December. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 3.56% and 1.01% lower w-o-w. Indian Pepper is being offered at $7,400/tn (c&f) while Indonesia is offering its Austa at $6,500/tn and Vietnam is offering Austa at $7,000/tn. Average daily arrivals stood at 11 tn while offtakes stood at 10 tn last week . According to market sources, Pepper production is expected around 63,000 tn in 2013, while the IPC projects Indias 2013 production at 70,000 tn..
Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

Expectations of higher output in 2012-13

Global updates
Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of Pepper declined 14.8% in the first 2 months of the year to 8810 tn as compared to 10344 tn in the same period last year. Consumption in the US is expected to be lower by 22-24% this year. Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.36 lk tn vis--vis 2.98 lk tn in 2011.Exports of Black Pepper from Vietnam during January till September 2012 is reported at 80,433 mt. Indonesia is expected to produce 40,000 tn this while Brazil is expected to produce 28,000-30,000 tn, and Sri lanka 26,500 tn. Reports that the FMC is probing into allegations of market manipulation may keep Pepper Futures under pressure. Also, expectations of higher output coupled with weak export demand for Indian pepper may also pressurize prices. However, winter demand may support the prices in the coming days. Sell NCDEX Dec Pepper between 40400-40600, SL- 41800, Target- 38600/38450.

Monthly Average Spot Prices of NCDEX Black Pepper

45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 21587 20000 15000 10000 5000 0

Prices (Rs/qtl) 38219 38282 34308 32318

41973 40695

2833630043 22900

Outlook

Weekly Strategy

Source: Reuters & Angel Research

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | November 26, 2012

Turmeric

Weekly Price Performance

Turmeric Futures gained in the early part of the week on reports that the Turmeric Farmers Association of India have decided to fix their own Minimum Support Price at Rs. 10,000/qtl. Expectations of lower output this year also supported the prices. However, prices did not sustain at higher levels due to weak overseas demand and corrected towards the later part of the week. Sowing is expected to be 30-35% lower compared to last year. The farmers are reportedly keeping around 12 lakh bags of turmeric with them. According to the weather department, rainfall in the key grown region (Southern Peninsula) is reported at 10% below normal. The spot settled higher by 0.76% while the Futures settled 0.39% lower w-o-w. Production of turmeric may decline in 2012-2013 season due to weak monsoon as well as lower turmeric prices. The area covered under Turmeric in A.P. as on 10th October, 2012 has been reported at 0.58 lakh hectares. The area covered is lower as compared to last year (0.81 lha), as well as normal as on date (0.67 lha). Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50-60% lower compared to last year. Production in 2011-12 is reported at historical high of 90 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs). Turmeric prices are expected to trade on a mixed note this week. Reports that the Turmeric Farmers Association of India have decided to fix their own Minimum Support Price at Rs. 10,000/qtl may support prices at lower levels. Also prices may find support at lower levels if there are any exports enquiries in the coming days. However, good carryover stocks with the stockists coupled with weak overseas demand may keep prices under check. NCDEX Dec Turmeric Trend Sideways. S2- 4780, S1- 4940, R1- 5300, R2- 5500

Lower acreage of Turmeric for the 2012-13 season

Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

Lower production in the 2012-2013 season

Turmeric - Prices vis-a-vis Arrivals

Arrivals 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0
1-Jun-12 1-Jul-12 1-Aug-12 1-Sep-12 1-Oct-12 1-Nov-12

Price
6400 5900 5400 4900 4400 3900 3400

Outlook

Weekly Strategy

Arrivals (in bags of 75 kg each)

Source: Agriwatch & Reuters

NCDEX Spot Price (Rs/qtl)

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | November 26, 2012

Weekly Price Performance

Jeera prices traded on a negative note for the second consecutive week due to pressure from the ongoing sowing in Gujarat. Sowing in Gujarat is reported 42% lower than last year as on 19th Nov, 2012 but may improve in the coming days. However, fresh export enquiries have supported prices in the spot. Total stocks are reported at around 5 lakh bags, as against 8 lakh bags last year. The Spot settled 0.53% higher while the Futures settled 1.6% lower w-o-w. Indias 2012 Jeera output is estimated at 40 lakh bags (of 55kgs each), higher than 29 lakh bags in 2011, a rise of 37.9%. However, increase in the exports due to supply concerns in the global markets offset the impact of higher supplies on the prices and thus, medium term fundamentals remain supportive for the upside. Exports of Jeera rose from 2,369 tn in April 2011 to 2,500 tn in April 2012. Target for exports in 2012 have been set at 45,000 tn against 35,000 tn in 2011. According to market sources, about 75% of export targets have been achieved. Due to lower production in Syria and Turkey, coupled with the ongoing tensions between them, exports are not taking place and have been diverted to India. They have stopped shipments. Export enquiries may emerge at lower levels. According to reports, production in Syria is reported around 22,000 tons while production in Turkey is reported between 5000-7000 tons, lower by 20% and around 50% respectively, raising supply concerns in the international markets. Indian Jeera in the international market is being offered at $2,825/tn (c&f). Jeera prices may trade with a negative bias this week anticipating improvement in sowing. However, fresh export demand may support to prices at lower levels. Sell NCDEX Dec Jeera between 14600-14700, SL-15550, Target 13350/13200.
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Gujarat.

Jeera

Effect of higher production offset by higher exports

Global supply concerns to boost Jeera exports

Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

Production of Jeera in India

3
Production, in Lakh Tonnes

3 2 2 1 1 0

International Scenario

Outlook

Weekly Levels

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | November 26, 2012

Soybean

Weekly price performance

NCDEX Soybean futures which declined during the early part of the week on arrival pressure post Diwali, recovered towards the end on strong demand from solvent extractors. December contract settled higher by 0.5% w-o-w. CBOT soybean settled 2.5% higher on robust Rabi oilseeds sowing has gained momentum post Diwali and is up by 4.6% as on Nov 23 at 6.3 lakh tonnes. The sowing of major rabi oilseeds, i.e. mustard seed, is up by 2.9% at 5.2 lakh ha. Soy meal exports during October are down 49,840 tn in October, the seventh consecutive month of fall in the current fiscal year, from 223,594 tn a year ago. China, the world's top soy buyer, will temporarily halt regular state soy sales from this week as Beijing starts a stockpiling programme for the oilseed. China's 2012-13 soybean import growth slows Imports seen rising 3 percent to 61 mn T Slowing demand, poor crush margins. As per Argentina's Agriculture Ministry weekly crop progress report, farmers have planted 31 percent of the estimated acreage for soybean to 5.921 million hectares, down 13 percent from the previous year. Soybean prices may trade with upward bias on account of robust demand for crushing. Delay in sowing in Argentina and brazil will further support the upside in the prices. Buy NCDEX Soybean Dec between 3200-3250, SL -3000, Target - 3550 / 3590

Rabi oilseed planting up by 4.6 percent as on Nov 23

Soy meal exports down in October

China to halt regular state soy sales from this week

China's 2012-13 soybean import growth seen at 6-yr low

Argentinas soybean sowing down till last week

Outlook

Strategy

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | November 26, 2012

Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil

Weekly price performance
Edible oil complex traded on mixed note with divergent performance seen in CPO and ref soy oil. CPO prices at MCX and BMD settled 1% and 3.9% lower qo-w on account of huge stocks of palm oil. While, CBOT and NCDEX Soy oil settled 4.2% and 3.1% higher w-o-w on account of good demand of soy oil on account of lower availability of other oilseeds in 2011-12. Malaysian shipments of the tropical oil fell 3.3 percent and 3.8 percent for the Nov. 1-20 period from a month ago. Malaysia's October palm oil stocks inched up 1.1 percent to a record 2,508,644 tonnes from a revised 2,480,990 tonnes in September. Despite hopes for an improved exports trend, rising inventories, remain worrying as palm oil output shows no signs of slowing. Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, has cut its export tax for crude palm oil to 9 % for November, down from 13.5% in October. Palm oil exports from Indonesia are set to increase to 1.6 mn tn from an estimated 1.41 mn tn in October. Output will decline to 2.4 mn tn from 2.43 mn tn. Stockpiles may drop to 2.5 mn tn from 2.6 mn tn. In October, India's imports of refined palm oil fell sharply 45% to 61544 tn as an import duty hike aimed at protecting the local refining industry from cheaper Indonesian supplies of the edible oil took effect. India's 2012-13 edible oil imports seen at record 10.31 mn tn, up 5.4% on year an industry expert said in glob oil conference. India's 2012/13 palm oil imports seen at 8.1 mn tn vs. 7.5 mn tn yr earlier . Buy NCDEX Refined Soy Oil Dec between 695-700, SL -670, Target - 738 / 742 Buy MCX CPO Dec between 437-442, SL -413, Target - 478 / 482

Global Scenario

Domestic Scenario

Strategy: Refine Soy Oil

Strategy : Crude palm Oil (CPO)

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday| November 26, 2012

Sugar
Weekly Price Performance
NCDEX Sugar December futures declined during the early part of the week, however, recovered towards the end on talks that the government will give mills flexibility in selling sugar in the open market by releasing the quota for four months instead of one month. After declining sharply, Liffe white sugar settled marginally higher on account of long liquidation. In a move towards decontrol of the sugar sector, the government has decided to allocate the open market sale quota for the next four months (December-March) instead of current system of quarterly release. Food ministry is likely to allocate seven million tonne of sugar for the next four months of 2012-13 fiscal The UP Govt has further delayed the announcement of sugarcane SAP. According to sources, the UP Government may announce a hike of Rs 20-30 a quintal. against Rs 240 a quintal last season. One of the worst droughts in three decades will slash Brazil's northeastern sugar cane crop this season by as much as 30 percent in some areas. Brazil's north and northeast regions only account for about 10 percent of national cane output, but the crop is an important source of sugar and ethanol at home and abroad when the main center-south crop is idle between harvests. This may provide some support to the prices. Sugar prices may trade with downward bias as millers will try to liquidate the remaining stocks from the non levy quota before the month end. Hoqwever, sharp downside may be on talks that government will give mills flexibility in selling sugar in the open market by releasing the quota for four months Sell NCDEX SUGAR Dec between 3300-3350, SL -3500, Target - 3070 / 3040

Govt to move from quarterly to 4-mthly release of sugar

UP Govt may announce cane prices after Nov 30

ISO raises forecast for 2012-13 global sugar surplus

Outlook

Strategy

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday| November 26, 2012

Kapas/Cotton

Weekly Price Performance

NCDEX Kapas futures remained under downside pressure and settled lower by 1.23% w-o-w on the back of increasing arrivals coupled with weak international market. After gaining in the previous week ICE Cotton futures underwent losses and settled 3.98% lower w-o-w as investors booked profit and concerns about global surplus offsite the fresh Chinese demand. As on 18th November 2012, 22.66 lakh bales of Cotton has arrived, down by 29% compared to last year 31.97 lakh bales during the same period last season.
(Source: Reuters)

Cotton Arrivals commenced across India

Cotton bears at risk of a short squeeze: Maguire

USDA projects the world cotton stocks-to-use ratio to hit highest levels since 1960. U.S cotton prices already trudging along at two-year lows, cotton acreage in the U.S. all but certain to be reduced again in 2013. Import prices trading at a record discount to Chinese domestic values, cotton values may start to find support as soon as early 2013 Short-biased traders run the risk of a short squeeze if prices fail to weaken in their favor over the near term. USDA monthly report shows a gain in yield due to favorable weather which resulted in rise in production estimates to 17.45 mn bales for 2012-13 season. Also, U.S has raised its 2012/13 forecast for global cotton inventory to above 80 mn 480-pound bales . Harvesting is on in US and 84% is completed as on 20th Nov 2012. Weak international markets along with increasing cotton arrivals from all over India might keep the prices in pressure. However, buying at dips is suggested as farmers will not sell their stocks at very low prices. Also, CCI procurement at MSP levels will lead to recovery in the prices. Buy NCDEX KAPAS April'13 between 930-940, SL -870, Target - 1030 / 1040

USDA monthly supply demand report raised production estimates

Outlook

Strategy

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | November 26, 2012

Thank You!

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