Professional Documents
Culture Documents
A View to 2040
Rob Gardner May 22, 2012
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
OECD
China
India
Africa
1.6
1.2
Age 65+
0.8
Age 15 64
0.4
Age 0 14
0.0
2010
2040
GDP
Trillion 2005$ 120 Average Growth / Yr. 2010 2040 2.9% 100
Energy Demand
Quadrillion BTUs 1400 Average Growth / Yr. 2010 2040 1200 0.9%
1000
18
15
80
12
60
800
9
40
600
400
Non OECD
3
20
200
0 1990
OECD
2015 2040
0 1990
2015
2040
0 1990
2015
2040
400
30
300
20
200
10
China
100
China
0 1990
2015
2040
250
200
150
100
50
Electricity Generation
+80%
By 2040, worldwide electricity demand will be 80% higher.
300
Transportation Renewables
30
250
Wind
25
200
Nuclear
20
Residential/Commercial
15
150
Coal
100
10
Industrial
5
50
Gas
0 1990
2015
2040
Oil 0 1990
2015
2040
300
$60/ton CO2
250
15
Renewables Wind
200
Nuclear
10
150
Coal
100
5
$0/ton CO2
50
Gas Oil
0 1990
2015
2040
Europe
k TWh
China
k TWh
6
Gas w/ CCS
Coal
2
Nuclear Wind
Oil 0 1990
Other Renewables
2015
2040
0 1990
2015
2040
0 1990
2015
2040
* Generation by Type
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
Transportation
90%
By 2040, 90% of transportation will run on liquid petroleum-based fuels.
Personal
MBDOE
50
Rail
40
40
Marine
30
Aviation
30
20
20
10
10
0 1990
2015
2040
0 1990
2015
2040
On-Road MPG
80 70 60 50 40 30
China
750 500 250 0 2000
United States
20
2010
Rest of OECD
10 0
2020
2040
US
Europe
China
Japan
India
On-Road MPG
80
Natural gas/LPG
1500 1250
PHV/EV
70 60
Hybrid
1000 750
50 40 30
Conv. Diesel
2010
500
Conv. Gasoline
250 0 2000
20 10 0
2020
2040
US
Europe
China
Japan
India
2010
400
Advanced* CNG
300
200
100
0 North America Europe OECD Other OECD China India Middle East Latin America Other Non OECD
2025
400
Advanced* CNG
300
200
100
0 North America Europe OECD Other OECD China India Middle East Latin America Other Non OECD
2040
400
300
200
100
0 North America Europe OECD Other OECD China India Middle East Latin America Other Non OECD
Non OECD
MBDOE
50
40
40
30
30
20
Biodiesel Diesel
20
10
Ethanol Gasoline
10
0 1990
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy
2015
2040
0 1990
2015
2040
0.7%
200
2040
1.6%
2010
150
-0.2%
100
2.2%
50
0 Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass/Other Wind / Solar / Biofuels Hydro / Geo
20
2010
30
15
2025
2040
10
China
10
5
OECD
0 1990
0
2015 2040
U.S.
Europe
China
India
Supply
By 2040
60%
of global demand will be supplied by oil & gas.
Resource *
TBO
5
Biofuels
100
NGLs Deepwater
4
Remaining Resource
80
60
2
40
20
Cumulative Production
0 2000
0
2010 2020 2030 2040
2040
* Source: Total resource from IHS Inc. The use of this content was authorized in advance by IHS.
4.9
4.1
Unconventional
Conventional
Latin America
World
Demand by Region
BCFD
600
500
Conventional Unconventional
500
400
400
300
300
AP Non OECD
200
200
Rest of OECD
100
100
North America
0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
0 2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
30
15
-15
-30 North America Europe Asia Pacific Africa Latin America Middle East Russia/ Caspian
30
15
-15
-30 North America Europe Asia Pacific Africa Latin America Middle East Russia/ Caspian
REGIONAL SNAPSHOTS
By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
125
Res/Comm
100
100
Industrial
75
75
50
Electricity Generation
Gas
50
25
25
Transportation
0 2000
0 2000
Oil
2010
2020
2030
2040
2010
2020
2030
2040
By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
50
Res/Comm
40 40
30
Industrial
30
Gas
20
Electricity Generation
20
10
10
Transportation
0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 0 2000 2010 2020 2030
Oil
2040
By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
100
80
80
Res/Comm
60
Industrial
60
Nuclear Coal
40
Electricity Generation
40
Gas
20
20
Transportation
0 2000 0 2000
Oil
2010
2020
2030
2040
2010
2020
2030
2040
By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
150
125
Res/Comm
125
100
Industrial
100
75
75
Coal
50
Electricity Generation
50
Gas
25
25
Oil Transportation
0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
0 2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
80
Gas
60
40
Oil
20