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The Outlook for Energy:

A View to 2040
Rob Gardner May 22, 2012

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

Demographic Shifts Alter Demand Profile


Billion
2.0

OECD

China

India

Africa

1.6

1.2

Age 65+

0.8

Age 15 64
0.4

Age 0 14
0.0

2010

2040

Source: World Bank

Global Progress Drives Demand


Population
Billion 21 Average Growth / Yr. 2010 2040 0.8%

GDP
Trillion 2005$ 120 Average Growth / Yr. 2010 2040 2.9% 100

Energy Demand
Quadrillion BTUs 1400 Average Growth / Yr. 2010 2040 1200 0.9%
1000

18

15
80

12
60

800

Energy Saved ~500

9
40

600

400

Non OECD
3

20

200

0 1990

OECD
2015 2040

0 1990

2015

2040

0 1990

2015

2040

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

Rapidly Expanding Economies Drive Demand


Non OECD GDP
Trillion 2005 $
50

Non OECD Demand


Quadrillion BTUs
500

Rest of Non OECD


40

Russia/Caspian Africa Middle East

400

Rest of Non OECD Russia/Caspian

30

300

Africa Middle East

Latin America India

20

200

Latin America India

10

China

100

China

0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

0 1990

2015

2040

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

Electricity Generation Leads Growth


Quadrillion BTUs
300

250

200

150

Electricity Demand 2040 2025 2010

100

50

0 Res/Comm Transportation Industrial Electricity Generation

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

Electricity Generation

+80%
By 2040, worldwide electricity demand will be 80% higher.

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

Electricity Demand Continues to Surge


By Sector
k TWh
35

Fuel Into Electricity Generation


Quadrillion BTUs

300
Transportation Renewables

30

250

Wind

25

200

Nuclear

20

Residential/Commercial
15

150
Coal

100
10

Industrial
5

50

Gas

0 1990

2015

2040

Oil 0 1990

2015

2040

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

Electricity Demand Continues to Surge


Baseload, Startup 2030
2011 cents/kWh
20

Fuel Into Electricity Generation


Quadrillion BTUs

300

$60/ton CO2
250
15

Renewables Wind

200

Nuclear

10

150
Coal

100
5

$0/ton CO2

50

Gas Oil

0 Coal Gas Nuclear Wind *

0 1990

2015

2040

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

Electricity Supply Varies Globally


United States
k TWh

Europe
k TWh

China
k TWh

6
Gas w/ CCS

Gas Coal w/ CCS

Coal

2
Nuclear Wind

Oil 0 1990

Other Renewables

2015

2040

0 1990

2015

2040

0 1990

2015

2040

* Generation by Type
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

Transportation

90%
By 2040, 90% of transportation will run on liquid petroleum-based fuels.

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

Commercial Transportation Drives Demand Growth


Commercial
MBDOE
50

Personal
MBDOE
50

Rail
40
40

Marine
30

Aviation

30

20

20

10

Heavy Duty Vehicles

10

Light Duty Vehicles

0 1990

2015

2040

0 1990

2015

2040

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

Impact of Global Fleet Shift on Efficiency


Million Vehicles
1750 1500 1250 1000

Light Duty Vehicle Fleet by Region

On-Road MPG
80 70 60 50 40 30

Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040


2020-2025 Target 2015 Target

Rest of Non OECD

China
750 500 250 0 2000

United States
20

2010

Rest of OECD

10 0

2020

2040

US

Europe

China

Japan

India

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

Impact of Global Fleet Shift on Efficiency


Million Vehicles
1750

Light Duty Vehicle Fleet by Type

On-Road MPG
80

Avg New Car Fuel Efficiency in 2040


2020-2025 Target 2015 Target

Natural gas/LPG
1500 1250

PHV/EV

70 60

Hybrid
1000 750

50 40 30

Conv. Diesel

2010

500

Conv. Gasoline
250 0 2000

20 10 0

2020

2040

US

Europe

China

Japan

India

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes


Powertrain Technology
Millions of Vehicles
500

2010

400

Advanced* CNG

300

LPG Conv. Diesel Conv. Gasoline

200

100

0 North America Europe OECD Other OECD China India Middle East Latin America Other Non OECD

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

*Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles

Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes


Powertrain Technology
Millions of Vehicles
500

2025

400

Advanced* CNG

300

LPG Conv. Diesel Conv. Gasoline

200

100

0 North America Europe OECD Other OECD China India Middle East Latin America Other Non OECD

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

*Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles

Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes


Powertrain Technology
Millions of Vehicles
500

2040

400

PHV/EV Full Hybrid CNG LPG Diesel Conv Mogas Conv

300

200

100

0 North America Europe OECD Other OECD China India Middle East Latin America Other Non OECD

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

*Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles

Transportation Fuel Demand Shifts to Diesel


OECD
MBDOE
50

Non OECD
MBDOE
50

40

40

30

Fuel Oil Other Jet Fuel

30

20

Biodiesel Diesel

20

10

Ethanol Gasoline

10

0 1990
ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

2015

2040

0 1990

2015

2040

Energy Mix Continues to Evolve


Quadrillion BTUs
250

0.7%
200

2040
1.6%

0.9% Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040

2010
150

-0.2%

100

2.2%
50

0.3% 6.0% 1.6%

0 Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass/Other Wind / Solar / Biofuels Hydro / Geo

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

CO2 Emissions Plateau


By Region
Billion Tons
40

Emissions per Capita


Tons per Person

20
2010

30

Rest of Non OECD

15

2025

India & Africa


20

2040

10
China

10

5
OECD

0 1990

0
2015 2040

U.S.

Europe

China

India

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

Supply

By 2040

60%
of global demand will be supplied by oil & gas.

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

Liquids Supply Continues to Diversify


Liquids Supply
MBDOE
120

Resource *
TBO

5
Biofuels

100

NGLs Deepwater

4
Remaining Resource

80

Tight Oil Oil Sands

60

2
40

Conventional Crude and Condensate

20

Cumulative Production

0 2000

0
2010 2020 2030 2040

2040

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

* Source: Total resource from IHS Inc. The use of this content was authorized in advance by IHS.

Global Gas Resource


8.1 World: ~250 years coverage at current demand Large unconventional gains anticipated 4.8

1.3 Europe OECD North America 1000 TCF 30


25 20 15 10 5 0

4.9

Russia/Caspian* 2.3 Middle East

4.1

Unconventional

2.6 Africa Asia Pacific

Conventional

Latin America

World

Source: IEA; * Includes Europe Non OECD

Unconventional Gas Contribution Increases


Production by Type
BCFD
600

Demand by Region
BCFD
600

500

Conventional Unconventional

500

Rest of Non OECD

400

400

Russia/Caspian Middle East

300

300

AP Non OECD
200
200

Rest of OECD
100
100

North America
0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
0 2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

Global Gas Supply Growth 2010 to 2025


By Type
BCFD
45

LNG Pipeline Local Unconventional Local Conventional

30

15

-15

-30 North America Europe Asia Pacific Africa Latin America Middle East Russia/ Caspian

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

Global Gas Supply Growth 2025 to 2040


By Type
BCFD
45

LNG Pipeline Local Unconventional Local Conventional

30

15

-15

-30 North America Europe Asia Pacific Africa Latin America Middle East Russia/ Caspian

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

REGIONAL SNAPSHOTS

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

North America Energy Demand and Supply


By Sector
Quadrillion BTUs
125

By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
125

Res/Comm
100
100

Other Renewables Biomass Nuclear Coal

Industrial
75
75

50

Electricity Generation

Gas
50

25

25

Transportation
0 2000
0 2000

Oil

2010

2020

2030

2040

2010

2020

2030

2040

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

Latin America Energy Demand and Supply


By Sector
Quadrillion BTUs
50

By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
50

Res/Comm
40 40

Other Renewables Biomass Nuclear Coal

30

Industrial

30

Gas
20

Electricity Generation

20

10

10

Transportation
0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 0 2000 2010 2020 2030

Oil

2040

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

Europe Energy Demand and Supply


By Sector
Quadrillion BTUs
100

By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
100

80

80

Res/Comm
60

Other Renewables Biomass

Industrial

60

Nuclear Coal

40

Electricity Generation

40

Gas

20

20

Transportation
0 2000 0 2000

Oil

2010

2020

2030

2040

2010

2020

2030

2040

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

China Energy Demand and Supply


By Sector
Quadrillion BTUs
150

By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
150

125

Res/Comm

125

Other Renewables Biomass Nuclear

100

Industrial

100

75

75

Coal

50

Electricity Generation

50

Gas
25

25

Oil Transportation
0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

0 2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

ExxonMobil 2012 Outlook for Energy

Energy Use Evolves Over Time


Global Percent Mix of Fuels
Percent
100

Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro

80

Gas
60

40

Oil

20

Coal Biomass 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2040

Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960)

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