Key findings from a survey of 600 likely voters in Virginia, with 180 cell phone-only respondents, conducted December

3-4, 2012.

Project #122247

Public Opinion Strategies is pleased to present the key findings of a telephone survey conducted in Virginia. The survey was completed December 3-4, 2012, among 600 likely voters, including 180 cell phone-only respondents, and has a margin of error of +4.0%. Glen Bolger was the principal researcher on this project. Jim Hobart was the project director, and Kyle Clark provided analytical support.

The mood of Virginia voters has improved a net ten points over the past year.
State Mood Trend

57% 49% 46% 42% 50% 45% 42% 43% 45% 44% 46% 44% 39% 47% 44% 44% 40% 36% 31% 48% 52%

42%

3/09

6/1/09

6/22/09

8/09

9/10/09

9/21/09

11/09

6/10

9/10

8/11

12/12

Right Direction

Wrong Track

Virginia Issue Benchmark ~ December 3-4, 2012

A solid majority of Virginians now approve of President Obamas job performance.

Obama Approval Trend
Strongly Approve: 36% Strongly Disapprove: 36%

58% 52% 46% 38%

54%

54%

51%* 45%

50% 47%

51%* 47%

53%

51% 45%

55%

45%*

43%

45%

43%

6/22/09

8/09

9/10/09

9/21/09

11/09

6/10

9/10

8/11

5/12

12/12

Approve *Denotes Rounding

Virginia Issue Benchmark ~ December 3-4, 2012

Disapprove

Governor McDonnells job approval remains sky-high.

McDonnell Approval Trend
Strongly Approve: 23% Strongly Disapprove: 9%

68% 63%* 63% 63%

67%

30%*

28%*

25%

25%

24%

6/10/10

9/10/10

8/11

8/12

12/12

Approve *Denotes Rounding

Virginia Issue Benchmark ~ December 3-4, 2012

Disapprove

McDonnell earns solid approval ratings from Inds and soft Democrats, and even a slim plurality of base Democrats approve of his job performance.
McDonnell Approval by Party

+74%

+79%

+45%

+23%

+4%

85%

86% 67% 53% 30% 22% 11% 7% Soft GOP (17%) Independent (16%)
Total Approve

48%

44%

Base GOP (22%)

Soft Democrat (20%)

Base Democrat (24%)

Total Disapprove

Virginia Issue Benchmark ~ December 3-4, 2012

McDonnells approval rating is strong across all media markets.

McDonnell Approval by DMA

+44%

+37%

+55% 74%

+40%

+33%

67% 61%

66%

64%

23%

24%

26% 19%

31%

DC (35%)

Roanoke (14%)

Richmond (18%)
Total Approve Total Disapprove

Norfolk (22%)

Other (10%)

Virginia Issue Benchmark ~ December 3-4, 2012

McDonnells lowest approval rating is 58%, in the Southside region.

McDonnell Approval by Region

+46%

+44%

+35%

+53%

+36%

+42%

68%

68%

73% 64% 58%

68%

22%

24%

29% 20% 22%

26%

Northern Virginia (31%)

Mtn (11%)

Piedmont/ East Valley (15%) Total Approve

Richmond (11%) Total Disapprove

Southside (12%)

Hampton Roads (20%)

Virginia Issue Benchmark ~ December 3-4, 2012

10

Virginians overwhelmingly approve of the Governors efforts to attract jobs and businesses to the state.
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bob McDonnell is doing in bringing new jobs and businesses to Virginia?
Strongly Approve: 26% Strongly Disapprove: 7%

68% 58% 61%

24%

25%* 19%
8/11 12/12

6/10

Total Approve *Denotes Rounding

Virginia Issue Benchmark ~ December 3-4, 2012

Total Disapprove

11

The Gubernatorial ballot test is a statistical tie, with about 15% of voters undecided.
If the election for Governor were being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Ken Cuccinelli, Republican, and Terry McAuliffe, Democrat?

Undecided 15%* Cuccinelli 42%

McAuliffe 43%

*Denotes Rounding
Virginia Issue Benchmark ~ December 3-4, 2012 13