Poll

Q: Who will get the blame if a deal is not reached? Congressional Republicans: President Obama:

With deadline looming, wrangling over a deal reaches fever pitch

BY CAROLYN ALER, JONATHON BERLIN, CHAD YODER AND KIM GEIGER
Chicago Tribune

53%

27%
Both equally:

As Democrats and Republicans haggle over reaching a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff by the Dec. 31 deadline, the divisive politics and economic consequences seem at once familiar and new. While Washington is no stranger to budget battles, the 112th Congress likely will be the least productive in history as measured by the number of bills passed. The struggling economy also has piled on the deficit, something that has strained congressional relations for decades.

12%
Neither:

2%
Nov. 29-Dec. 2 telephone poll of 1,003 adults. Margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points

No opinion: 6%

How we got here the back and forth

President Barack Obama re-elected. GOP maintains control of the House, Democrats the Senate. Obama says in his victory speech, I am looking forward to reaching out and working with leaders of both parties to meet the challenges we can only solve together: reducing our deficit, reforming our tax code. House Speaker John Boehner announces Republican willingness to consider new revenue, but holds the line on raising tax rates. Obama discusses the deficit in his weekly address: Im open to compromise and new ideas. But I refuse to accept any approach that isnt balanced. Congress returns to Capitol Hill for lame-duck session.

Nov. 10

Boehner proposes a two-step process: Avert going off the cliff by agreeing to a deficit-reduction framework with binding targets to be worked out in more detail by the new Congress in 2013.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid promises a swift resolution: This is not something were going to wait until the last day of December to get done. We have a plan.

Week of Nov. 25

Obama meets with House and Senate leaders at the White House.

A number of Republicans break with anti-tax activist Grover Norquist and state publicly that theyll accept raising some taxes.

Republicans say Democrats have failed to offer specifics on cuts to entitlement programs such as Medicare and Medicaid.

Nov. 16

Nov. 26

Obama asks Americans to use Twitter, email and Facebook to pressure Congress to act.

Nov. 28

Nov. 29

Republicans accuse Obama of campaigning rather than negotiating.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner meets with Hill leaders to present a White House plan: $1.6 trillion in new revenues over a decade largely from higher taxes on the wealthy plus future spending cuts. The proposal mirrors earlier White House offers including new stimulus spending, aid to help homeowners refinance mortgages and extended unemployment benefits.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell details a GOP counteroffer that the party would be open to new revenue along with an increase to the Medicare eligibility age.

Battle moves to Sunday talk shows with Geithner saying: Theres not going to be an agreement without rates heading up.

Boehner says he was flabbergasted by an earlier deal offered by the White House.

Boehner offers a proposal in a letter to Obama; it includes caps on tax deductions for the wealthy that could bring in $800 billion, as well as $1.4 trillion in spending cuts to Medicare, Social Security and other programs.

GOP offers a deal to raise taxes on the wealthy to defer larger deficit talks to 2013, when a debt-limit vote is likely to come up.

Obama responds, Im not going to play that game.

Dec. 1

Boehner says the president has adopted a deliberate strategy to slow-walk our economy right to the edge of the fiscal cliff.

Dec. 7

Dec. 2

Dec. 3

1971

GOLD/DOLLAR CONVERSION

1974

BUDGET POWER FOR CONGRESS

1981

REAGANS FIRST BUDGET

Dec. 5

1985-87

BUDGET TARGETS

1990

PAY-AS-YOU-GO RULES

1993

What it was: President

What it was: The

Richard Nixons order unlinked the value of the dollar to gold, starting floating exchange rates. Politics: Other parts of Nixons proposals were more politically charged, though this change was more far-reaching as it paved the way for an entirely new way to trade currency.
1995-96 GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN

Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act set up the Congressional Budget Office and standing budget committees. Politics: The battle between a Democratic Congress and Nixon was on the heels of Nixon holding back $12 billion in funds Congress had approved.
1997 FIRST BALANCED BUDGET

What it was: Two bills, the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1981 and the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 cut taxes and domestic spending and increased military spending. Politics: Conservative Democrats broke from their majority in the House to help the bills pass.

What it was: The GrammRudman-Hollings Act set deficit targets and across-theboard cuts if they were not met. Politics: The bill received bipartisan support, though it was later struck down by the Supreme Court, revised and passed again.

What it was: The Budget Enforcement Act determined that spending or tax cuts could not add to deficit. Politics: Tense negotiations between President George H.W. Bush and the Democratic Congress partially shut down the government. The final deal included a tax increase, despite Bushs pledge.

What it was: The Deficit Reduction Act raised taxes and cut spending following a presidential campaign that focused on the deficit. Politics: President Bill Clintons first budget was a tough political fight against members of both parties. It passed by a narrow margin.

2001

BUSH-ERA TAX CUTS

2008

BANK BAILOUTS

2009

THE STIMULUS

1993

What it was: An impasse

between the GOP House and Clinton shut down the government twice from November 1995 to January 1996. Politics: The Newt Gingrich-led House pushed for steep non-defense cuts. A deal was reached, though it sidestepped haggling over a balanced budget.
PARTY IN POWER NIXON
SENATE HOUSE
1971

What it was: The Balanced Budget Act was the first budget legislation after Clintons re-election and with the GOP in control of the House and Senate. Politics: Budget talks went quickly, with both parties looking to avoid intense fighting. They were helped by a growing economy. FORD CARTER

What it was: The Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act was the first of two tax cuts under President George W. Bush, which were extended under Obama in 2010. Politics: Republican majorities in both chambers allowed for relatively easy passage. BUSH

What it was: The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act sought to contain the credit and subprime mortgage crisis. Politics: The bill failed an initial vote in the House, forcing both parties to regroup. But stock market and political pressure helped another deal form within a week. CLINTON

What it was: The $787 billion package of programs was designed to jolt the economy out of crisis. Politics: The effort passed along partisan lines. No House Republicans voted for the measure; only three GOP senators supported it.

What it was: A summerlong partisan fight over raising the countrys debt limit resulted in the U.S. losing its perfect credit rating. Politics: Both sides agreed to automatic cuts if further budget negotiations failed. Those cuts are a contributing factor to the fiscal cliff.

REAGAN

BUSH

Dec. 9

CLINTONS FIRST BUDGET

FIGHT OVER DEBT CEILING

OBAMA

1974

1981

1985 1986 1987

1990

1993

1995 1996 1997

2001

2008 2009

Nov. 13

Nov. 6

Nov. 7

Democrats say Republicans should be the ones to propose the cuts since they are the ones insisting on them.

Obama and Boehner meet face-to-face for the first time since November 16.

2011

NATIONAL DEBT

$20 trillion 15 10 5

2012: $16.07 trillion

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2%

ANNUAL SURPLUS OR DEFICIT As a percentage of GDP

2012 estimate: -7%

-2 -4 -6 -8 -10

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

BILLS ENACTED
INTO LAW Number of bills per session of Congress

607

649 588

634

613 473

623

664

713 650 590 465 333 394 377 580 498 482 460 383

178
92ND 93RD 94TH 95TH 96TH 97TH 98TH 99TH 100TH 101ST 102ND 103RD 104TH 105TH 106TH 107TH 108TH 109TH 110TH 111TH 112TH 113TH

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
40% 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

PARTISAN VOTING Percentage of votes where a party voted unanimously

Republicans: 29%

Democrats: 16%

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

SOURCES: U.S. SENATE; U.S. HOUSE; WHITEHOUSE.GOV; U.S. TREASURY; REGI ONAL ORAL HISTORY OFFICE OF THE BANCROFT LIBRARY AT THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY; THE WASHINGTON POST AND THE PEW RESEARCH CENTER; CQ ROLL CALL; CHICAGO TRIBUNE; NEWS REPORTS; MCT