ESTIMATION METHOD FOR PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE OF GREEN SEA LOADS

National Maritime Research Institute, Japan

Yoshitaka OGAWA

Based on the experimental results in regular waves in a certain ship speed condition, it is found that inflow of shipping water is approximately proportion to the square of the exceeded height of relative water height at stem. Based on this relation, green sea load F can be approximated to the value that is proportion to the square of exceeded height with the following expression as (Reference [1])

(1) where is the coefficient, is a density of water, g is the acceleration of the gravity, B is a breadth of ship, is the amplitude of relative water height, f is the bow height at stem and is exceeded height of relative water height at stem. For example, as to 4knot ship speed condition of general cargo ship, the coefficient on No.1 hatch and No.2 hatch are approximated as 0.158 and 0.076 respectively by the results of experiment in regular waves in same ship speed. As to 2knot ship speed condition of general cargo ship, the coefficient on No.1 hatch and No.2 hatch are approximated as 0.131 and 0.049 respectively. Though the coefficient may be changed by the ship type, ship speed and so forth, the coefficient could be estimated by the use of estimation method of green sea load developed by the authors (Reference [2]) without experiments. The probability density function of green sea load is expressed with the following equation by the probability density function of relative water height at stem height as (2) When it is assumed that the spectrum of relative water height is narrow band, probability density function of relative water height is given by Rayleigh distribution as

(3) where standard deviation of relative water height. In this study, measured one. is derived from

By combining Eq.1, Eq.2 and Eq.3, the probability density function of shipping water load is deriveed as

(4). The exceedance of probability of green sea load P(F>F0) can be expressed by the integral of Eq.4 as

(5).

Comparison between measured and estimated probability of exceedance of green sea load are shown in Fig.1 and Fig.2 respectively. Values of them were converted to those of the realship scale. It is found that the estimated results agree well with the experimental results. It is verified that the present method is useful for the estimation of the probability of exceedance (the probability density function) of green sea load accurately.

Fig.1 Probability of exceedance of green sea loads (General cargo ship, 4knot)

Fig.2 Probability of exceedance of green sea loads (General cargo ship, 2knot)