Practice questions on Probability

Important Note : Please practice these questions and write about 50 words interpretation after each question , if even its wrong It would be fine ( Just put your effort in doing rest leave it to me)

Two factories manufacture the same machine part S. Each part is classified as having 0 , 1 , 2 or 3 manufacturing defects. The joint probability distribution for this is given below:

0 1 2 3 Nike 0.1250 0.0625 0.1875 0.1250 Reebok 0.0625 0.0625 0.1250 0.2500

A part is observed to have no defects . What is the probability that it was produced by Nike ? 0.1250/0.1250+0.0625=0.1250/0.1875=0.0533 =53.3% A part is known to have been produced by Nike defects ? . What is the probability the part has no

0.1250/0.1250+0.0625+0.1875+0.1250=0.1250/0.5010=0.249=24.9% A part is known to have two or more defects. What is the probability that it was Nike ? 0.1875+0.1250/0.1875+0.1250+0.1250+0.2500=0.3125/0.6875=0.454=45.4% Interpretation:53.3%of the machine part manufacture by nike have no defect as campared to reebok . 24.9% of the total machine parts manufactured by the nike have no defects . 45.4% of the machine part poduced by the nike have two or more defects as campared to reebok. Above calculated data shows that if we campare munufacturing of machine by nike with reebok, nike is performing better but if we campare machine manufactured only by the nike then it is not performing that well and need some improvement .

A petrol pump proprietor sells an average of Rs 60,000 petrol on rainy days and an average of 80,000 on clear days . Statistics from meteorological department show that probability is 0.75

for clear weather and 0.25 for rainy weather on coming Saturday. Find the expected value of petrol sale . 60,000*0.25+80,000*0.75=15000+60000=75,000 The expected value of sales for coming saturday if it is either clear weather or rainy weather is 75,0000

There are alternative proposals before a L& T Manager to start a new project:

proposal for Construction in II Tier cities: Profit of Rs 4 lakhs with a probability of 0.7 or a loss of Rs 60,000 with probability of 0.3 .

Proposal for Online Shopping Portal : Profit of 8 lakhs with a probability of 0.3 or a loss of Rs 1.50 lakh with a probability of 0.7.

Proposal for Retail Sector : Profits of 3 lakh with probability of 0.6 or a loss of 40,000 with a probability of 0.4 . If he wants to maximize the profits and minimize the loss which proposal he should prefer

Please give interpretation for your answer Proposal for Construction in II Tier cities-profit=2.8lakh and loss=18000 . Proposal for Online Shopping Portal -profit=2.4lakh and loss=1.05lakh . Proposal for Retail Sector -profit=1.8lakh and loss=16000 . Acc. to above calculated data, If he wants to maximize the profit and minimize the loss he should choose proposal for construction in II tier cities .

A factory produced certain types of output by three machines . The respective daily production are : Machine A = 3,000 units , Machine B = 25 00 units and Machine C = 4500 units . Past experience shows that 1per cent of the ouput produced by machine A is defective . The corresponding factions of the defective for the other two machines are 1.2 & 2 percent respectively.

output produced by machine A that are defective-1%of 3000=30 output produced by machine B that are defective=1.2%of 2500=30 output produced by machine C that are defective-2%of 4500=90 total no. defective outcome=150 An item is drawn at random from the days production run and is found to be defective . What is the probability that it has come from the output of i) Machine A ii) Machine B iii) Machine C iv ) Machine A or Machine C i)30/10000=3/1000=0.003= ii)30/10000=0.003 iii)90/10000=0.009 iv)0.003+0.009=0.012 An item is drawn at random from the days production run and is found to be no defective . What is the probability that it has come from the output of i) Machine A ii) Machine B iii) Machine C iv ) Machine A or Machine C i)2970/10000=0.297 ii)0.247 iii) 0.441 iv)0.297+0.441=0.738 Comment upon the results obtained from above.