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India's economy extended its long slump in the last quarter, with lower-thanexpected growth keeping it on track for its worst year in a decade and underscoring the urgency of politically difficult reforms to spur a revival. The economy grew 5.3 percent from a year earlier in the July-September period, provisional gross domestic product (GDP) data showed on Friday, below the 5.5 percent posted for the three months ending in June. "It is essential that the reform agenda is carried forward with vigour and that the recently announced measures are implemented," leading business chamber FICCI said. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's chief economic advisor forecast fullyear growth of between 5.5 and 6 percent, which would be the slowest since 2002/3. "It will be between the two, because in order to get 6 percent we really need very strong growth in the second half," advisor C Rangarajan told TV network CNBC. A growth rate below 6 percent for the third quarter in a row is damaging for a country that aspires to at least 8.5 percent expansion to provide jobs for its burgeoning population, and makes it tougher for Singh to fund flagship welfare programmes.
In a major breakthrough in building the country's first metro rail system in Dhaka, Japan has approved $2.1 billion in soft loan for the $2.7 billion project. Finance Minister AMA Muhith disclosed this yesterday at his secretariat office after Japanese Ambassador in Dhaka Shiro Sadoshima handed over the approval letter to him. "Japan government has approved the loan. They will give us $133 million within the current fiscal year," he told journalists. "The government is now ready to start loan negotiation with Jica as both the sides are very sincere about moving fast with building the 20.1 kilometre metro rail starting from Uttara Third Phase to Motijheel," said an official of the ministry. A change in the route was first made in 2010 to avoid overlapping with the under-construction Gulistan-Jatrabari flyover. Jica, however, did not desert the project and waited for the government to finalise the route, find a place for a depot and form a company that will eventually operate the metro rail. Earlier, Jica had conducted a study on metro rail. The study said the metro rail will operate every three minutes and carry 60,000 passengers an hour.
Ending a four-year ban, Malaysia will initially recruit 30,000 Bangladeshi workers for its plantation sector from early next year.
It will also recruit gradually workers in the manufacturing, construction, agriculture and service sectors. This is a milestone in the history of the country's manpower export sector, Expatriates Welfare and Overseas Employment Minister Khandker Mosharraf Hossain said yesterday. He was briefing newsmen at the ministry's conference room about signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Malaysian government. Registration of the interested workers will begin this month through the website of Bureau of Manpower Employment and Training (BMET). After registering online, the workers will be called up at the 13 BMET Technical Training Centres across the country for verifying their applications, noted the minister. The minister warned the job seekers not to give money to any middleman or recruiting agency.The Bangladesh government held detailed talks with the Malaysian human resource minister in Dhaka in September to start sending Bangladeshi workers under state arrangements.
Bangladesh received nearly $1.1 billion in remittances in November, almost 21 percent higher than that in the same month a year ago, despite the financial crisis in major economies across the world. Bangladesh received more than $6.1 billion in remittance in the first five months of the current fiscal year.
The central bank of Qatar agreed in principle to deposit $1.8 billion with Bangladesh Bank, which would boost the country's foreign exchange reserve.
BB Governor Atiur Rahman held a meeting with the acting governor of Qatar Central Bank, Sheikh Fahad Faisal Al-Thani, in Qatar recently, according to a BB statement. A technical committee of both the central banks will work out the terms and conditions. A memorandum of understanding will be signed between the two central banks soon. The BB has already given the central bank of Qatar a draft MoU, which is being examined now. The BB is expected to send a technical team early next year. An analyst said it is a kind of borrowing by one central bank from another to boost forex reserves. The foreign exchange reserve stood at $11.81 billion yesterday, which is equivalent to around four months' import bill of the country. The decision of Qatar Central Bank followed earlier discussions between Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the emir of the Gulf state. During the meeting, Qatar also wanted to recruit some experts from Bangladesh for advising its central bank.
Reuters, Brussels
Germany and France clashed publicly on Tuesday over plans to put the European Central Bank in charge of supervising banks, deepening a dispute
over the scope of ECB powers that threatens to derail one of Europe's boldest reforms. With time running out to meet a pledge to complete the legal framework for an EU-wide banking union by the end of the year, Germany's Wolfgang Schaeuble told a meeting of EU finance ministers he could not support a plan that would give the ECB the final say on supervision. France's Pierre Moscovici and the ECB protested against any watering down of a plan central to Europe's response to a five-year banking crisis and which promises to unify the way it deals with problem lenders, ending a previously haphazard approach. "The right of the last decision cannot be left to the ECB Governing Council," Schaeuble told the meeting in Brussels, in comments broadcast to reporters. Maria Fekter said that EU leaders in making their pledge to establish a new system of supervision "did not decide the hegemony of the ECB, just involving the ECB" and accused Constancio of misrepresenting their intentions. The suggestion was rebutted by Constancio. "It is inside the ECB, as the summit has decided," he said. Diplomats also need to address the concerns of non-euro zone countries that aim to join the currency, such as Poland and Hungary, which also want to ensure they are not disadvantaged by the ECB taking a more powerful oversight of their banks.
Britain's HSBC said Wednesday it would sell its stake in China's second largest life insurer Ping An to a Thai firm for $9.4 billion, in a shift back towards its traditional banking business. The lender said it would sell its entire 15.57 percent holding in Ping An Insurance Group to diversified conglomerate Charoen Pokphand Group at HK$59 ($7.66) a share, making it the biggest foreign purchase by a Thai firm.
Ping An recently hit the headlines after the New York Times said in reports in October and November that Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's relatives benefited ahead of its 2004 Hong Kong listing by buying stock at a discount. The insurer has denied those claims and threatened legal action against the newspaper. HSBC Group Chief Executive Stuart Gulliver said in a statement the sale would benefit shareholders, but added that China remained "a key market for the group". HSBC, which first bought into Ping An in 2002, has been selling its non-core assets as part of a broad restructuring plan designed to boost profitability. "They can unload their non-core assets and resources to refocus on their main business, which is banking," said Tanrich Securities Vice President Jackson Wong. Shares in Ping An surged 4.94 percent to HK$60.50 in Hong Kong, while HSBC ended 1.65 percent higher at HK$80.0. A Ping An official, who declined to be identified, told AFP on Wednesday that HSBC started negotiations on the sale "long ago" in advance of the New York Times stories. The paper said Ping An chairman Ma Mingzhe lobbied Wen in 1999, when he was a vice-premier, and his wife as the government considered a decision on whether to split up the company.
Eid spending contributed to a rise in inflation in November -- for the first time in five months. Inflation rose by 0.19 percentage point to 7.41 percent in November from the previous month. Food inflation stood at 6.45 percent, up from October's 5.57 percent, while non-food inflation came down to 9.31 percent from 10.46 percent in October, as per Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).
A BBS official said the prices of rice, flour, lentil, fish, meat, spices and milk went up in November due to Eid-ul-Azha. The inflation data, however, is according to the old base year of 1995-96. As per the new base year of 2005-06, November's overall inflation was 6.55 percent, down from October's 5.86 percent. Both food and non-food inflation dropped in November in the new method of calculation. Food inflation in November and October were 3.94 percent and 2.51 percent respectively, and the non-food inflation in the two months was 10.68 percent and 11.28 percent.
International Monetary Fund yesterday said it may release the second instalment -- $141 million -- of its $1 billion loans by January. But before that, the board and management of the lender will have to agree with the understandings between the government and an IMF team on the conditions tagged with the loan promise. The IMF mission wrapped up its 10-day visit to Dhaka yesterday. The chief of the team, David Cowen, in a statement said: Performance so far has been generally sound. Quantitative targets are broadly on track, with all performance criteria met at end-June 2012. After a meeting at the Finance Division, Cowen at a press conference said, Progress has also been made on structural measures, notwithstanding additional time needed to build policy consensus and several key reforms. He also said the government will pursue legal and prudential reforms to strengthening financial sector governance and oversight, and reinforce Bangladesh Bank's supervisory mandate and capacity. Cowen said amendments to the Banking Companies Act aim to put oversight of all banks on a level-playing field. The IMF official said, further efforts will be made to contain subsidy costs, anchored by a fuel price adjustment formula.
To mitigate the impact of adjustments on the most vulnerable, agreed fiscal target will protect social spending by the government, Cowen added. About the growth prospects, he said, We expect the real GDP to grow by about 6 percent in FY13, reflecting external uncertainties and the broader global slowdown."
countries to ensure sustainability of manpower export to countries with whom we enjoy beneficial relations.
The country may see model district budgets from the next fiscal year to help the local people understand about their development activities, according to Finance Minister AMA Muhith. I had proposed in the very first year that we should have budget for every district, but we've not been able to get it. I hope from the next year, we'll have at least model district budgets, he said. Muhith spoke at a seminar on medium-term budget framework (MTBF) at the city's Ruposhi Bangla Hotel. He said if there is district budget, at lest local people can understand what development programmes are undertaken for their areas. About the failure of adopting district budget, Muhith said the government could not do much about that because of the current accounting system which did not provide any element for accounting by the district. But, now it has been introduced in the country. There should be decentralisation of power from Dhaka, he said. "Our constitution wants it and it was in the constitution of 1959 and 60, but, I must say, politically we don't want it, Muhith said. This is not a matter of this party or that party. The power is supposed to be delivered to the local government, not to be devolved. If power is delivered, it can be taken back any time. About the World Bank (WB), the minister said the global lender does not adjust itself with innovations. Many new ideas were not initially supported by the World Bank. Citing his bureaucratic experiences, Muhith said the government once had moved to prepare a new Trade and Industrial Policy and also Water Resource Planning Organisation, but the World Bank did not support it. But UNDP and other donor agencies supported those.
The WB later came up and took the credit for it. As a government officer at that time, I had registered a protest against the leading donor agency's such claim. He said every project should have a feasibility study which will determine its selection. About the MTBF, the minister said this new budgetary planning was introduced in 2004 when as a member of the opposition party, Awami League, he supported the move. Muhith said MTBF should be on multiyear basis for the sake of its implementation in a proper manner.
The US unemployment rate slipped to a December 2008 low in November but the job market remains stuck in a grinding crisis, government data released Friday shows. The Labor Department's monthly jobs report was better than expected, with the jobless rate dropping to 7.7 percent from 7.9 percent in October and job growth picking up. But the decline in the jobless rate was mainly due to people leaving the workforce, the department said. And the improvement in job growth -- the economy added 146,000 jobs -came after the department downwardly revised October's initial estimate of 171,000, to 138,000.
The United States needs to raise taxes and cut spending to address the looming fiscal cliff, IMF chief Christine Lagarde said Sunday, warning that anything less would undermine economic confidence.
With President Barack Obama and Republican lawmakers stuck in an apparently ideological battle on how to address the nation's ballooning deficit by the end of 2012, Lagarde said the cliff remained the biggest threat to the economy. Speaking on CNN's "State of the Union" talk show, she said that although the US economy was creating jobs, American debt was still higher than in much of the eurozone and cautioned against more half-baked, short-term measures. "The best way to go forward is to have a balanced approach that takes into account both increasing the revenue, which means raising tax or creating new sources of revenue, and cutting spending as well," Lagarde said. The so-called fiscal cliff refers to a combination of severe tax increases and spending cuts due in January. Obama won November's presidential election on a platform of tackling the nation's deficit and debt by raising taxes for the wealthiest Americans, but Republicans are opposed to higher rates being placed on anyone.
The country took a successful stride forward in attracting foreign investment thanks to the Bangladesh Investment Summit in Singapore on December 4. Organised by the publications FinanceAsia and AsianInvestor, the summit aimed to showcase trade and investment opportunities in Bangladesh to Asia's sovereign wealth funds, family offices, public and private pension funds and other investors. Sponsored by Standard Chartered Bangladesh, City Bank and Deutsche Bank, the daylong event He added that the government is aiming to make Bangladesh a middleincome country by 2020 and has a good momentum going into it. "Already its per capita income has more than doubled over the past decade to over $800, and is on track to soon reach $1,000, Kabir said, while citing Bangladesh's billing in Goldman Sachs' 'Next 11' list.
Bangladesh Bank's (BB) Chief Economist Dr Hassan Zaman said the central bank and the securities regulator are reviewing the impediments to foreign investment at present. Jim McCabe, the chief executive officer (CEO) of Standard Chartered Bangladesh, highlighted the success of the country's textiles and readymade garment sectors. But several other sectors such as pharmaceuticals and ceramics have already gained a strong foothold in the global marketplace. The potential of jute and its by-products is also immense. McCabe mentioned of the country's low-cost efficient labour force, and that the population of While terming the country's regulatory regime as very proactive and progressive, LR Global Bangladesh's CEO Reaz Islam said more development in terms of human resources and technology are needed to cope with industry growth.
British bank Standard Chartered Plc will pay $327 million to resolve allegations that it violated US sanctions and other laws, the Federal Reserve said on Monday. The bank will pay $100 million to resolve Fed allegations that it provided "inadequate and incomplete responses" to bank examiners and provided insufficient oversight of its sanctions compliance program, the Fed said. The bank separately entered into deferred prosecution agreements with the US Justice Department and the New York District Attorney, and will forfeit $227 million in connection with those agreements, the Fed said.
More integrated rice and potato chains benefited urban consumers with affordable price for quality rice, and year-round supply of potatoes. Farmers' incomes have also increased. Farmer's share of the retail price of rice is roughly 60 percent, while for potatoes their share is 50 percent. The ADB study also indicated that agriculture's share to gross domestic product has declined through the years, down to 20 percent in 2011, next to services and industry sectors. The sector still employs about 47 percent of the country's labour force.
In line with an IMF prescription, the government has decided to set the exposure limit of a commercial bank in the stockmarket at 25 percent of the bank's total capital. A finance ministry official said the changes will be included in the draft amendment to the Banking Companies Act. However, the government wanted the exposure limit to be at 40 percent of a bank's total capital. The existing exposure limit of a bank is 10 percent of its deposits. A team of the International Monetary Fund came to Dhaka recently to review the implementation of the lender's conditions tagged with the release of the second instalment of its $1 billion loan. The finance ministry official said the amendment to the Banking Companies Act will be passed in parliament in March. Once the amendment gets passage in parliament, the central bank will give the banks two years' time to reset their stock exposure limits. Various quarters blamed the stockmarket debacle in 2011 on the banks' higher stock exposure. Banks saw falling profit and rising defaulted loans this year. Bangladesh Bank had long been asking the government to tag the stock exposure limit of banks with their capital, instead of deposit.
After the amendment, banks will be able to raise their stock investment up to more than Tk 14,000 crore. According to BB statistics, the amount of total capital in the banks was Tk 56,201 crore in June. When the stockmarket was booming in 2010, the banks' investment in stocks was around Tk 16,000 crore. According to BB statistics, the total capital of the banks was Tk 20,578 crore in 2008. The banking sector has witnessed an increase of Tk 35,623 crore in their capital in the last four years. It means the overall capital growth has been 173 percent over the last four years with an annual average growth of about 49 percent.
shipmentSuman Saha
The country's export earnings increased by about 11 percent year-on-year to $1.76 billion in November, thanks to growth in readymade garment shipments.
Bangladesh's exports witnessed positive growth as it can offer products at competitive prices, said Shubhashish Bose, vice-chairman of Export Promotion Bureau (EPB). Bose also credited the new market explorations and product diversification -thanks to participation in international fairs and opening new missions abroad -- for the positive turn of events for Bangladeshi exports. We are happy over the positive growth as most countries' exports are in a negative trajectory due to the debt crisis in Europe. The figure, however, fell short of November's target of $1.99 billion. In November, overall garment exports stood at $1.36 billion, up 8.8 percent from the same month a year ago. Knitwear raked in $653.96 million, while woven garments brought $710.04 million, according to EPB. Although apparel exports registered decent figures, garment manufacturers are worried over growth prospects. We are concerned about the future RMG export performance due to the recent fire at a garment factory and the ongoing political instability, said Faruque Hassan, vice-president of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association. He said the country cannot achieve its export target for the fiscal year due to the global financial crisis and gas and power shortage in the country. We registered more than 25 percent growth of RMG exports in the last three years. But it may come down to around 4 percent in the calendar year, said Hassan, while calling for an end to precarious political scenario.
Workers walk past clocks showing a time of 12 minutes past 12 noon, on this century's last sequential date, in a plaza in the Canary Wharf business district of London.Photo: ReutersReuters, London
If rising income gaps are at least partly responsible for the global credit crisis, governments and companies should be wary of squeezing wages yet again to help rebuild their finances. In the long buildup to the global financial crisis, households took on debt to offset the gradual fall in their incomes and consumption relative to the more wealthy. But as they'll get little or no help from easy credit today, driving wages down even more risks a cratering of household consumption and a severe test of social cohesion. A renewed public focus on decades of widening wealth and wage inequality in the United States, Britain and other developed and developing economies has been one of the most durable legacies of the five-year-old credit crisis. Work by Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz' on the 1 percent of U.S. super-rich, "Occupy" protest movements around the world and electoral swings to the left have all spotlighted what business, finance or government elites now realize they can't ignore. While the share of US gross domestic product going to wages and salaries has fallen 10 percentage points to about 43 percent since 1970, the slice going to companies in after-tax profits has surged, doubling to 12 percent since 2005 in what HSBC described as "one of the most chilling charts in finance." Whether you fear the impact on people's aspirations and sense of social justice or the sustainability of the corporate world's inflated share of the pie, the numbers are alarming everyone.
And, as the ILO points out, not every country can become a surplus economy as the global economy at large is a closed one. As a result, everyone pushing down wages even further from here could be devastating. If competitive wage cuts or wage moderation policies are pursued simultaneously in a large number of countries, competitive gains will cancel out and the regressive effect of global wage cuts on consumption could lead to a worldwide depression of aggregate demand.
The fire that killed 112 workers at a garment factory in the suburbs of Bangladesh's capital last month was a stark reminder of the human costs of producing and consuming cheap clothes. While American officials have condemned poor safety conditions at the factory and have urged the Bangladeshi government to raise wages and improve working conditions, the United States can do much more: It should bring down high tariffs on imports from Bangladesh and other Asian countries, which put pressure on contractors there to scrimp on labour standards in order to stay competitive. The United States imported more than $4 billion worth of apparel and textiles from Bangladesh last year. So it has an interest in giving the country's garment industry some financial room with which to improve conditions for the three million employees, most of them female, who work in the industry. The distortions created by the current trade policy are striking. In the United States federal fiscal year that ended in September 2011, Bangladesh exported $5.10 billion in goods to the United States, of which less than 10 percent were eligible for exemption from import duties. On the rest, Bangladesh had to pay at least 15.3 percent in tariffs. The tariffs were equivalent to imposing a $4.61 tax on every person in Bangladesh, a country with a per-capita annual income of $770. Bangladesh's government and industries have a moral duty to prevent catastrophes like the November fire from ever occurring again. They need to insist that factory operators meet safety standards, that inspections are conducted honestly and that recommendations are enforced.
But levelling the playing field of international trade could advance all of these goals. International brands like Tommy Hilfiger, Gap, H&M, Target and Walmart demand low prices and fast turnaround. In that context, high tariffs work against the goals of fair-labour standards and factory safety. In the fire's aftermath, it's tempting to focus only on local corruption and lax labour standards. But there have been positive changes in recent years; labour groups, businesses, nongovernmental organisations and even some international buyers have formed coalitions to improve safety at many factories. In a survey I conducted of garment workers at established factories, 62 percent said labour conditions had improved.
The central bank is buying a large amount of dollars from the foreign exchange market almost every month to maintain stability of the exchange rate mainly because of a fall in import. A Bangladesh Bank official said the main target of the central bank is to ensure competitiveness of export commodities and to keep inflation under control. The central bank has bought $1.82 billion from the forex market from July 1 to December 11. In the first 11 days of December, the amount was $107 million.
The BB is buying dollars in a way that does not fuel the appreciation of the taka against the dollar, said the official. In the recent times, the taka has been appreciated continuously against the dollar. On December 11, the taka's weighted average rate against the dollar was Tk 80.80, down from Tk 81.32 on December 2. The rates were Tk 81.38 on November 30 and Tk 81.82 on June 30. Kazi Sayedur Rahman, general manager (forex reserve and treasury management department) of the central bank, said if the taka is appreciated much, export commodities may lose their competitiveness against the neighbouring countries. He said the amount of foreign currency at banks often goes up beyond their limit as the demand for import is low now. So the central bank buys the excess foreign currency from the banks, he added. Another BB official said the central bank does not buy too much of the dollars as it can increase the supply of the local currency in the market and ultimately fuel inflation. Several officials of the central bank and some commercial banks said the supply of the dollar has increased due to a fall in imports and a rise in remittances, exports and foreign aid disbursement. The foreign exchange reserves also marked a rise in the recent times. The reserves stood at $12.11 billion yesterday, up from $10.36 billion on June 30. According to BB statistics, imports fell by 6.75 percent in the July-October period of the current fiscal year compared to the same period last year, when imports rose by 23.13 percent. Officials at some commercial banks said the overall imports fell this year due to a decline in imports of food grain, capital machinery and petroleum. The BB officials said food import declined as the production of rice is good now. The import of capital machinery was higher last year to feed the rental power plants but there is no such demand now. The prices of petroleum products also marked a fall on the international market, leading to a decline in the value of petroleum imports, they said. Banks are opening letters of credit cautiously after the Hall-Mark scam. Also, many banks are deferring their import payments to next year.
The BB officials said Islamic Development Bank's credit line for import of petroleum is about $2.5 billion this fiscal year, much higher than $1 billion last year. As a result, the payments against petroleum import by the local banks are less this year, which is also a reason behind the low demand for foreign currency. According to LC settlement statistics of the first four months of the current fiscal year, imports of food grain fell by 43 percent, capital machinery by 28.16 percent and petroleum by 7.45 percent. Also, remittances rose by more than 24 percent in the first five months of the current fiscal year. Though export growth was slow, it increased by 3 percent in the first four months.
Much-needed rescue funds for Athens "will be flowing to Greece as early as next week," the head of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker said yesterday. Juncker spoke at a news conference after finance ministers of the 17-nation eurozone agreed to release a first 34.3 billion euros of aid to Greece.
In 1988, Beijing -- the capital of China which was witnessing its first wave of reforms -- had only two private cars with the second one just brought in by a Chinese scholar from the USA. The world's most populated city was swarmed with millions of bicycle riding commuters.
Now, the city of 30 million people has five million cars. There are 10 metro rail services and various city bus services operating on thousands of kilometres of its road network. Welcome to the new face of China. If you go to any affluent village around, say, Nanning -- the capital of Guangxi autonomous province -- expect to see farmers driving posh cars. As in most European and American villages, the villagers live in duplex houses and enjoy all modern amenities in the rural setting. These changes are signs of China's progress in poverty alleviation and its becoming the world's second largest economy. For a nation of 1.3 billion people, poverty alleviation had been a very hard task. To come up to the present level of progress, this nation had to find its own way and work hard for more than three decades with a clear vision of what it wanted to achieve. From the eighties, China followed a model of rapid urbanisation facilitated by a huge infrastructure and industrial powerhouses for its poverty alleviation. But as a result of this policy, 80 villages are disappearing in China every day, says Fan Jida of National School of Administration and a specialist on reforms and economics. These villages -- out of several hundred thousand villages of the country-are either being abandoned or merged with cities. There are 650 cities in China and these are geographically expanding rapidly. Around 960 million people out of 1.3 billion live in urban areas, he informed a delegation of the Awami League central committee, headed by Akhtaruzzaman, in Beijing. The team was invited by the Communist Party of China (CPC) to exchange views on China's poverty alleviation efforts. The eight-member team visited the cities of Nanning, Qin Dao and Beijing between November 27 and December 6. Presently, the urbanisation level is 51 percent. As per China's development model, industries and special economic zones in a city trigger migration from rural areas for jobs. To make this rural workforce efficient, they have special training programmes. There are city clusters with one big city served by many small towns and hundreds of villages. There are three clusters representing only three percent of the country's areas while they account for 40 percent of the population and 42 percent of GDP. They are truly the locomotives of regional development of China, said Fan Jida.
Fan Jida mentioned that China aims at 70 percent urbanisation by 2030. But there will still be 400 million people living in rural areas because of population growth. Just think that back in 1949, the number of people living in rural areas was also 400 million.
Airlines will pull in sharply higher profits this year and next than previously expected, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced on Thursday. The organisation told reporters in Geneva that airlines globally are now expected to post total profits of $6.7 billion (5.15 billion euros) this year, up from its previous estimate on October 1 of $4.1 billion. IATA said the increase was mainly due to restructuring efforts in the airline industry, and had little to do with the overall economic climate, which remained depressed. On October 1, IATA had already revised up its predictions from June, when it expected the industry to rake in just $3.0 billion this year. The organisation also raised its outlook for 2013, with industry-wide profits now expected to tick in at $8.4 billion instead of the previously predicted $7.5 billion. The net margin this year is meanwhile expected to stand at 1.0 percent and to swell to 1.3 percent in 2013. In 2011, considered a good year, the net margin was 1.4 percent. IATA cautioned meanwhile that the airline industry remained weak, pointing out that the revised profit estimate for 2012 was still far below the $8.8 billion pocketed last year. And the expected 1.0-percent margin remained far below the 7.0 to 8.0 percent needed to cover the vast capital needs in the sector. "It is good news that the outlook is moving in a positive direction. But let's keep the figures in perspective," IATA chief Tony Tyler said, pointing out that "the industry is keeping its head above water. But only just."
Broken down by region, the organisation said hard-hit European carriers were only expected to breakeven this year.
Monday, December 17, 2012 China to keep steady policies, deepen reforms in 2013
A Chinese woman walks past a retail store in Beijing. Photo: AFPReuters, Beijing
China will maintain steady economic polices in 2013, leaving room for manoeuvre in the face of global risks while deepening reforms to support long-term growth, the official Xinhua news agency said after an annual policy-setting conference on Sunday. Chinese leaders have already pledged to ensure stable economic growth next year, and the latest announcement follows a December 7 Reuters report in which sources said that China's leaders were likely to stick with a growth target of 7.5 percent next year, the same as in 2012. Experts say new Communist Party chief Xi Jinping needs to take bold steps in enacting economic reforms that could include restructuring how China achieves its growth by emphasizing consumption over investment and exports, and loosening the dominance of state companies. China will ensure appropriate growth in bank loans and social financing in 2013 and will keep the yuan currency stable to cushion economy against
global headwinds, Xinhua said after the close of the annual Central Economic Work Conference, which Xi presided over. "China will continue to implement the pro-active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy in 2013," Xinhua said. "The proactive fiscal policy will be combined with tax reforms and structural tax cuts and the prudent monetary policy will pay attention to dynamism and enhance operational flexibility," it said. China's economy still faces global uncertainties along with rising trade protectionism, while the risk of rising inflation and asset bubbles globally is increasing, it said. Annual economic growth dipped to 7.4 percent in the third quarter, the weakest pace since the depths of the global financial crisis in early 2009, but growth has been picking up steady since October thanks to a raft of progrowth policies. The central bank, the People's Bank of China, has kept the same monetary policy since late 2010, that has encapsulated at first modest tightening and then modest loosening following the global financial crisis. Fiscal policy has been pro-active, or expansionary, since late 2008, when the government unveiled a 4 trillion yuan stimulus package after the economy took a big hit during the global financial crisis. The country will push forward the next stage of economic reforms "with greater political courage and wisdom", Xinhua said. Xi signalled a commitment to deepening economic reforms by visiting the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen last week, echoing groundbreaking comments by reformist senior leader Deng Xiaoping during his famous "southern tour" to the same area 20 years ago. The government will maintain property controls, including restrictions on how many homes individuals can buy, which have been in place since 2009, to ward off potential risks, and will make greater efforts to improve the quality of urbanisation to help bolster domestic demand. China will stabilise its exports while boosting imports to gradually balance the country's international payments and expanding its outbound investment next year, Xinhua added.
Stocks gained 2.17 percent yesterday -- the highest in three weeks -- thanks to a buying spree in anticipation of a good run. The banking sector, which accounts for 30 percent of the total market capitalisation, registered substantial gains in the last few days to pull up the DGEN to close at 4,177 points. Turnover rose by 23.94 percent from the previous day to Tk 218 crore. Investors were more upbeat on the banking sector, which gained by 3.46 percent, IDLC Investments said in its daily market commentary. In addition, some other large cap stocks -- Grameenphone, Titas Gas and Lafarge Surma Cement -- experienced positive movements which turned it into a large cap rally, the merchant bank said. A total of 0.75 lakh trades were executed yesterday, with 6.96 crore shares and mutual fund units changing hands on the Dhaka bourse. All the major sectors ended in the black. Banks rose by 3.45 percent, followed by non-bank financial institutions at 3.32 percent, power 2.17 percent, telecommunications at 0.80 percent and pharmaceuticals at 0.58 percent. Of the 260 issues that traded on the DSE, 222 advanced, 33 declined and 5 remained unchanged. National Bank was the top traded stock of the day with its transaction of 67.22 lakh shares worth Tk 15.21 crore. Prime Leasing and Finance was the biggest gainer of the day, posting an 8.87 percent rise, while Modern Dyeing and Screen Printing was the worst loser, slumping 6.78 percent.
Bangladesh's foreign exchange reserves hit a record high of $12.4 billion yesterday, breaking the October figure of $12.36 billion, a senior Bangladesh Bank official said yesterday.
By the end of this week the reserves will reach $12.5 billion, said Kazi Sayedur Rahman, general manager for the central bank's forex reserve and treasury management department. Rahman said strong flow of remittance, an Asian Development Bank fund, UN peacekeepers' sent money and buying of the greenback from the market have fuelled the reserve. The country's imports fell 11.04 percent to $10.75 billion during the JulyOctober period from the same period last year. The country imported goods and services worth $2.65 billion in October, down from $2.73 billion in September. The total value of import LCs opened by authorised dealer banks declined 11.54 percent to $11.52 billion in first four months of the current fiscal year, according to data from the central bank. LC openings increased for wheat by 84.49 percent while it decreased for rice by 86.71 percent, sugar 71.17 percent, onion 39.04 percent and milk food 20.28 percent.
HSBC's $1.92 billion payment to US authorities to avoid prosecution for money-laundering practices, including transferring funds for Mexican drug cartels, raises serious questions about the flow of narco-cash in the international banking system. The time has come to tackle the culture of impunity that allows these illegal transactions. The illicit drug trade remains international organised crime syndicates' most lucrative source of income. Drug traffickers may be laundering up to 70 percent of the estimated $320 billion they make from illicit drugs annually, according to United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime (UNODC). Yet officials have been able to seize less than 1 percent of this. In Central America, for example, we have all seen the effects of crime and drug trafficking. When criminals fight, it is innocent bystanders who often die. The homicide rate in El Salvador is 69 killings per 100,000 citizens; in Guatemala it is 39 per 100,000; and in Honduras it is 92 per 100,000. By contrast, in Great Britain, the homicide rate is roughly 1.2 per 100,000.
Shutting down the cartels' cash flow could deal a significant blow to their operations and help rein in their lethal power. In 2010, UNODC put the value of the US cocaine market at around $33 billion, closely followed by the European market at $31 billion. But our efforts will come to nothing if implementation is ineffective, compliance is inadequate and vigilance poor. When legal and institutional weaknesses are exploited, effective regulation is crucial. Without this, sophisticated criminals can always find ways to push dirty money into the legitimate financial system. Some governments, such as Switzerland, have made great strides in addressing money -laundering and corruption through improved regulatory frameworks. But these regulations are only as strong as the compliance mechanisms at financial institutions, which are crucial in implementing them. There has been progress. In some countries, including the United States, bank secrecy laws have effectively been scrapped and are no longer obstacles to money-laundering investigations. More financial companies are establishing ethics and compliance programs to build an accountable workforce that has the knowledge and tools to serve as a bulwark against illicit money. But more needs to be done. It would help to create a regulatory environment in which breaches are systematically punished. However, the tone must be set at the top. The commitment to deal with institutional failings and strengthen corporate social responsibility must begin with boards of directors and chief executive officers. A shift in culture cannot happen soon enough. It requires leadership and determination. UNODC can help. My office is engaged with top international banks in our common fight against money laundering and corruption. They need to adopt policies in line with the United Nations Convention against Corruption, and create checks and balances that reduce the opportunities for wrongdoing. The international legal instruments provide a common framework for cooperation. Let us use it. Through the Stolen Asset Recovery Initiative of the World Bank and UNODC, we are helping governments confront criminals who launder the proceeds of crime through the international financial system. These are challenges that no country or region should face alone.
With the public's attention focused on the financial system, regulators and policymakers are eager to improve its robustness and integrity. In this climate, we need to make bankers aware of their obligations to support national and international efforts to combat organised crime, drug trafficking and corruption. Transparent practices make good business sense. They build credibility and promote investor confidence. But far more is at stake than balance sheets. The laundered drug money is tainting the reputations of leading financial institutions. Do banks really wish to help the drug kingpins who deal in death and destruction across continents? This moral argument should not be ignored.
Economic ties between Bangladesh and India are far below potential, said a World Bank study. Greater access to each other's markets, improvements in physical connectivity and transit, and energy trade between the countries can help unlock this trade potential, according to the report released in New Delhi on Monday. The study -- unlocking Bangladesh-India trade: emerging potential and the way forward -- said greater engagement in these areas can also stimulate employment and other economic and social activities. Bangladesh accounts for less than 1 percent of India's total imports with a small range of items, mostly fertilisers and jute products. Though readymade garments constitute Bangladesh's major global export, their share in exports to India is very small. Simulations in the World Bank study indicate that a bilateral free trade agreement between the two countries could increase Bangladesh's exports to India by 182 percent, and that of India to Bangladesh by 126 percent. For India, closer economic cooperation with Bangladesh can be an important stepping-stone to reduce the economic isolation of its northeastern states, said the report.
To realise this potential, both the countries need to further liberalise trade, reduce tariffs (largely in the case of imports into Bangladesh), reduce and remove non-tariff barriers, and cut trade costs by improving trade facilitation both at borders and inland, according to the study. The study suggested the two countries should go beyond trade in goods to deepen cooperation and improve Bangladesh's export capability. To enable larger gains, Bangladesh-India cooperation should go beyond goods trade and include investment, finance, services trade, trade facilitation, and technology transfer. This will be a building block toward the larger goal of enhanced regional cooperation, said Sanjay Kathuria, one of the authors of the study and lead economist, regional integration, South Asia region. The study observed that foreign direct investment would also help grow bilateral trade between India and Bangladesh. Inflow of direct investment from India would stimulate Bangladesh's exports, facilitate technology transfer, and generate employment. "Both the governments need to facilitate trade by improving infrastructure at border trading posts, harmonising trade-related documentation, and minimising the restrictive element of non-tariff measures," Kathuria said. "With the general decline in tariff barriers, addressing such costs of trading becomes paramount to ensure continued growth of trade that could, in turn, be a major force in poverty reduction, especially in border areas."
For the third year in a row, Pakistan has been hit with severe flooding that has impacted millions of people and damaged economic growth. Weak financial inflows and debt repayments have led to a decline in the central bank's foreign exchange reserves to under $10 billion in October, below adequate levels, the IMF noted. "Directors underscored that reducing the large fiscal deficit is essential for restoring macroeconomic and external stability," it said. The deficit, excluding grants, hit 8.5 per cent of gross domestic product last year, substantially higher than the original 4.0 per cent target, according to the Washington-based lender. In the 2012-2013 fiscal year that began on July 1, the IMF projected the deficit would shrink to 6.4 per cent of GDP as growth slows half a point from the previous year to an annual rate of 3.2 per cent. The IMF directors called on Pakistani authorities to undertake short-term efforts to broaden key taxes and reduce subsidies, while protecting the most vulnerable. Pakistan had a $10.7 billion IMF loan until September, but had drawn only about a third of it. The government has indicated it would not seek a new loan.
The new policy came into effect from August 1 this year. The BB's latest move came against the backdrop of excess liquidity worth around Tk 240 million held in government securities by 12 PD banks after maintaining their statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) with the central bank, which has created a liquidity pressure on the commercial banks. Currently, 15 PDs-12 banks and three non-banking financial institutions (NBFIs)-are functional. Three treasury bills (T-bills) are being transacted now through auctions to adjust the government borrowing from the banking system. They are 91-day, 182-day and 364-day T-bills.
Malaysia will recruit 30,000 Bangladeshi workers initially for its plantation sector from early next calendar year after ending a four-year ban. "Most remitted money came in the month of October from the expatriates to their families to facilitate celebration of the Eid festival. So, the inflow of remittance receipts decreased in November last," the central banker said while explaining the main cause of falling remittance inflow. Bangladesh received $6.111 billion as remittance earnings during JulyNovember period of the current fiscal year, registering a 24.17 per cent growth over the corresponding period of the previous fiscal, the BB data showed. The country's foreign exchange reserve stood at $11.78 billion Monday due mainly to the robust growth in inward remittances from the Bangladeshis working abroad, according to the BB officials. The central bank earlier took a series of measures to encourage the expatriate Bangladeshis to send their hard-earned money through formal banking channel, instead of the illegal "hundi" system, to help boost the country's foreign exchange reserves.
Stocks in Europe were trading mixed with FTSE-100 and DAX marginally down while CAC-40 was up 0.4 per cent on the back of discouraging US economic data. The sectoral indices on the BSE were led by Oil & Gas Index followed by healthcare and realty. However, Auto, IT and Capital Goods and COnsumer Durables were the top losers on profit taking after recent gains. Index heavyweight- Reliance Industries was up 2.1 per cent at Rs 821 on reports that the oil ministry may approve the company's investment plans for the KG-D6 block. State-owned ONGC was up 1.4 per cent. In the banking pack, ICICI Bank was up 1.2 per cent and SBI gained 1.4 per cent.
policies more targeted and effective. The euro hit a seven-week high before surrendering gains, European shares rose and oil prices firmed. But many investors are awaiting fresh news such as U.S. non-farm payrolls numbers due on Friday, a Federal Reserve policy meeting next week and the fiscal cliff negotiations before taking a position on gold. "With the possibility of non-agreement (over the fiscal cliff), that would throw the U.S. economy into reverse," bullion dealer Sharps Pixley's chief executive Ross Norman said. "The brinkmanship would be gold-positive."
Govt, IMF mission reach ad referendum on reforms $141m ECF loan tranche expected in Jan
The chief of the visiting International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission, David Cowen, said Thursday the mission and the Bangladesh authorities reached an ad referendum understanding on a set of economic policies and reforms, focusing on pursuing sound fiscal and debt management, ensuring stable monetary and exchange rate conditions as well as strengthening the financial sector. Mr. Cowen said the ad referendum understanding is subject to review by the IMF management and its Executive Board in the context of the first review under the ECF (Extended Credit Facility) arrangement. "Upon the Executive Board's completion of this review, which is expected in January next, SDR (special drawing rights) 91.4 million or about US$ 141 million would be made available to Bangladesh," Mr Cowen added. He said this at a press briefing at the conference room of the ministry of finance (MoF) on conclusion of the visit of the IMF mission on the first review under the ECF arrangement with Bangladesh. In April last, IMF approved nearly US$1.0 billion ECF for Bangladesh to provide support to the country to maintain a healthy balance of payment (BoP) situation. The Washington-based International Monetary Fund (IMF) team visited Bangladesh since Necember 27 and met with all relevant ministries, advisers and other officials concerned. Mr Cowen said IMF reached an ad referendum, for a synergy of actions to maintain macroeconomic stability, build external buffers, and promote higher growth in the country. "The government has agreed to contain its budget deficit (excluding grants) to 4.5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the current fiscal year, including the settlement of fertiliser subsidy overruns from FY 12, with moderate consolidation over the medium term," according to a press statement issued by the IMF. Under the ECF arrangement, the performance of the Bangladesh in relevant areas has so far been generally sound, he added. "Quantitative targets are broadly on track, with all performance criteria met at end June 2012 -- the first test date under the ECF."
Exports to the U.S. were down 5.8 per cent on year - compared with a 9.5 per cent drop in October - while those to Europe fell 6.7 per cent, less than the previous month's 11 per cent tumble.
But the decline in the jobless rate was mainly due to people leaving the workforce, the department said. And the improvement in job growth-the economy added 146,000 jobs-came after the department downwardly revised October's initial estimate of 171,000, to 138,000. The department also cut the September jobs number, slicing 49,000 jobs in total from the two months' gain. "The November payroll gain was in line with the current trend and suggests the labor market has shown no sizable change in conditions over the last 11 months," Briefing.com analysts said.
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BEIJING, Dec 9 (AFP): China released a series of figures Sunday showing continued strength in the world's second largest economy as it prepares for new leaders tasked with sustaining the country's dramatic growth. There was a double-digit increase in production at factories, workshops and mines for the first time since March, the National Bureau of Statistics said, a strong sign the country is shaking off the effects of the global economic slowdown. The 10.1 percent November increase follows rises of 9.6 percent the previous month, 9.2 percent in September and a three-year low of 8.9 percent in August. Overall growth has slowed for seven straight quarters in China. It hit 7.4 percent in the three months through September, the weakest performance in more than three years.
The BoI officials have expressed satisfaction over their performance to register and provide prompt certification of foreign investments in Bangladesh. Last month at least 14 projects of various reputed companies around the globe were registered with the BoI for investment of a total $ 1.7861 billion ($ 1786.104 million) in Bangladesh. Though the BoI has no available data to register FDI for July 2012, it has registered FDI proposals worth $ 18.736 million, $ 343.1019 million and $ 53.778 million in August, September and October 2012 respectively. "BoI cannot make any prediction about the actual investment inflows after providing certification of registration for investments in Bangladesh; but we are happy with the proposed foreign investments for November intake, as we have received proposals for over $ 1.78 billion in a single month," Executive Council Member of the BoI Nabhash Chandra Mandal told the FE Sunday. "We can also mention that the proposed investment in November has reflected a positive and firm interest of the foreign investors for Bangladesh," Mr Mandal, who is also the official concerned for the FDI, said. According to the 2012 World Investment Report (WIR) of the UNCTAD, Bangladesh received FDI worth $ 1.13 billion ($ 1136.38 million) in 2011, the highest in its history, showing a 24.42 per cent rise compared to the FDI received in 2010. Bangladesh had received FDI worth $ 910 million in 2010. The FDI inflows in 2008 were worth $ 1.08 billion as it was also the second highest in history. Among the countries South Korea, Singapore, UAE, UK, USA, Japan, Malaysia, Norway, KSA and the Netherlands now remain at the BoI's chart with the highest FDI in Bangladesh. Some other countries such as China, Germany, India, Hong Kong, Sri Lanka and investors of the existing countries are showing interest for fresh investments in Bangladesh.
"All three large economies have a powerful impact on the emerging world food economy of the 21st century," it noted. It said the importance of energy costs in transport, milling, cold storage, and farming in the rice and potato value chains of Bangladesh, China and India indicates that food prices are vulnerable to energy cost shocks. Asia's ability to keep food prices in check and ensure long-term regional food security will require the supply chains of the farms in the region to become more efficient and cost-effective, the study says. In Bangladesh, since the 1980s, food grain markets have become well-integrated over time and space. The integration may have been driven by major investments in road infrastructure. Wider availability of mobile phones may have helped. There may have been a little collusion between traders in fixing prices, except during the short periods, the study observes.
ATHENS: People make transactions at ATM machines in central Athens Tuesday. Greek banks are expected to have covered a shortfall in initial bids by the time Athens closes an extended offer on Tuesday to buy back bonds as part of an effort to cut debt and secure aid for its flagging economy. Reuters ATHENS, Dec 11 (Reuters): Greek banks are expected to have covered a shortfall in initial bids by the time Athens closes an extended offer on Tuesday to buy back bonds as part of an effort to cut debt and secure aid for its flagging economy.
Home prices in the Asian financial hub have skyrocketed 90 per cent since 2009 due to an influx of wealthy mainland Chinese buyers, pushing home- ownership beyond the reach of many of its seven million people. "The sharp run-up in house prices raises the risk of an abrupt correction," the IMF said in its annual review of Hong Kong's economy. "A sharp price correction would lead to falling collateral values and negative wealth effects, which could trigger an adverse feedback loop between economy activity, bank lending, and the property market. "The property sector is the main source of domestic economic risk," the Washington-based organisation said. It however said the chances of a price correction that is large enough to generate a major macroeconomic and financial consequences is "fairly low in the near term". It also said the city's government recent bid to slap new taxes on residential properties "should help dampen housing demand" but urged Hong Kong to ensure sufficient supply in order to boost home affordability. Hong Kong announced a 15-per cent stamp duty on non-permanent residents and corporate buyers as well as a higher stamp duty on the resale of property within three years in late October in an attempt to rein in soaring prices. With the global economic weakness continuing to impact domestic economy, the IMF said it expects Hong Kong's economy to grow 1.25 per cent this year, before rebounding to 3 per cent next year.
UBiFrance willing to invest in BD SMEs French Trade Commissioner meets CCIFB members
The CCIFB-arranged meeting in progress in the city Wednesday. French Ambassador to Bangladesh Michel Trinquier, Director of the French Regional Trade Promotion Agency Pierre Lignot, Anis ud Dowla of ACI, Niaz Rahim of Rahimafrooz, Raihan ul Ameen of Aamra Compnies, Mizanur Rahman of Square Group, Salwatura of CMA CGM, Dr Asim Jamal of Sanofi Aventis, H N Karim of Technoheaven, Rashedul Karim of Creation and Kazi Samiur Rahman of Totalgaz and Director of CCIFB Dr Rifat Rashid attended the meeting. French trade promotion agency - UBiFrance - is looking for penetration of French business at small and medium enterprise (SME) sector in Bangladesh through the France Bangladesh Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCIFB), its members and other entrepreneurs. UBiFrance, under the Ministry of Economics and Finance, wants to expand French business in renewable energy, textile machinery, infrastructure development and some other technology-based sectors.
Infosys Ltd invested $207.14 million in its wholly owned subsidiary Lodestone Holding AG in Switzerland which is engaged in financial, insurance and real estate services. Videocon Oil Ventures invested $127 million in its wholly owned subsidiary Videocon Hydrocarbons Holdings in Cayman Islands. The company is into agriculture and mining business.
The finance ministry said "supportive" moves from the central bank would be needed even for the economy to expand at the revised level of 5.7-to-5.9 per cent, down from 7.85 per cent estimated at the start of the year. The forecast came a day before the bank was expected to keep the benchmark interest rate on hold as it waits for stubborn inflation to ease, despite mounting pressure for a cut to boost the sluggish economy. "It should be possible for the economy to improve the overall growth rate of GDP (for the year) to around 5.7 per cent to 5.9 per cent" from 5.4 per cent in the first half, said the Mid-Year Economic Analysis tabled in parliament. The full-year rate would be far below the near double-digit pace India set before the onset of the global financial crisis. Finance Minister P. Chidambaram has been urging the central bank to reduce high interest rates to bolster the economy. But the bank has kept rates steady since April-when it cut them for the first time in three years-unlike other developing countries which have lowered borrowing costs to shield their economies from the eurozone crisis. India's bank has insisted inflation must recede and the government needs to curb its ballooning fiscal deficit-the widest of all emerging market economies-before more rate cuts. Growth in 2011-12 fell to a nine-year low of 6.5 per cent hit by high interest rates, struggling overseas economies and sluggish investment caused by concerns about policymaking and corruption. India's economy has not expanded by less than 6.5 per cent since the 2002-2003 financial year. Economists had already cut their year growth forecasts to mid-five per cent or lower.
Spot gold was down 0.33 percent to $1,689.51 an ounce by 1117 GMT after falling nearly half a percent in the previous week. U.S. gold was down 0.37 percent to $1,689.50. The metal briefly rose to a two-week high above $1,720 an ounce last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve pledged to buy $45 billion a month in longer-term Treasuries, a potentially inflationary move that was expected to support gold. It swiftly retraced those gains, however, in line with other financial markets as investors prepared for year-end. "This (move in gold) is primarily technical, a continuing ease-back after the FOMC announcement last week," Tom Kendall, head of precious metals research at Credit Suisse, said. "Technically the chart is looking more bearish. The path of least resistance is now to the downside." Prices were drifting towards the low end of recent ranges towards year-end, he said. On the wider financial markets, European shares and the euro retreated as investors focused on the fast approaching year-end deadline to avoid the imposition of steep tax hikes and spending cuts in the United States, known as the "fiscal cliff". A new proposal for tax hikes on incomes over $1 million a year from U.S. Republican House Speaker John Boehner on Sunday was seen as a step forward, but it still remained some way from the position of President Barack Obama. Credit Suisse's Kendall said gold was taking little support from speculation over the cliff at present. "If the markets were very concerned about the lack of agreement to date or the potential impact of the fiscal cliff in the first quarter of 2013, you would expect to see gold higher than it is, especially considering the relative weakness of the dollar against the euro," he said.
The drop added to a long downward trend that began in November 2011. FDI has declined every month since then except for May, when it eked out a marginal 0.05 per cent gain. For the first 11 months of the year, FDI was down 3.6 per cent year on year at $100.02 billion, Shen said. The government has blamed the slump on the slowdown in global economic growth, the prolonged European debt crisis, and rising costs and weak demand at home. "In 2013, the size of China's FDI will remain stable and will not fall sharply," Shen said. "But the general environment will remain severe due to external uncertainties." China, the world's second-largest economy, was once a magnet for foreign investment, but the weak global economy as well as the Asian giant's own woes have curbed enthusiasm. The Chinese economy has slowed for seven consecutive quarters, expanding 7.4 per cent in the three months ended September 30, its worst performance since the first quarter of 2009. Economic indicators for the current fourth quarter including manufacturing activity, industrial production and retail sales have shown improvement, however, leading to optimism that economic growth could be set to improve.