Chapter 4

Demography
4.1 Background

The study of population focussing attention on the size, structure distribution and growth of population is required to assess the various civic needs in respect of housing, transportation, physical and social infrastructure. The objective of the present chapter is to collate data for various demographic characteristics of the city.

4.2

Population Growth:

Fig 4.1: Growth of Population in the North-Eastern States:1951-2001

30.00 Population in million 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 1951 1961 1971 Year
Assam Arunachal Pradesh Manipur Meghalaya Mizoram Nagaland Tripura

1981

1991

2001

Fig 4.2:Decadal Growth rates of population India vis-a-vis the NE States : 1951-2001
90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 1951-61 1961-1971 1971-81 Year
India Meghalaya Assam M izoram Arunachal Pradesh Nagaland Manipur Tripura

Decadal Growth rate

1981-91

1991-2001

4.2.2 Population Growth: Kamrup District

Table 4.2: Population growth in Guwahati vis--vis India, Assam and Kamrup Name 1971 1991 2001 Population Population Decadal Growth Population Decadal Rate in percent Growth Rate (1971-1991) in Percent (1991-2001) India Assam Kamrup GMA GMCA 548.15 14.63 1.21 0.29 0.12 846.30 22.41 2.00 0.65 0.58 24.25 23.80 28.73 48.45 117.27 1,027.01 26.64 2.52 0.89 0.81 21.35 18.85 25.75 37.85 38.60

Source: Various issues of the Census of India

4.3

Urbanization Trends

Fig 4.3 Growth in the share of urban population: India vis-a-vis NE States
Percentage of urban population to total population

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1951 1961 1971 Year 1981 1991 2001

India Assam Arunachal Pradesh M anipur M eghalaya M izoram Nagaland Tripura

Among all the districts of Assam, Kamrup is the most urbanized its urban population being 35.81% of its total population, and 26.57% of the urban population of the State as per Census 2001 figures.

Urbanization in GMA, GMCA, Kamrup, Asam and India

100.00 90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 1991 % Urban population to total Population India Assam Kamrup GMCA GMA 2001

Percentage

Source: Census of India 2001, Series 19,

Paper 2 of 2001

Source: Various issues of the Census of India

Fig 4.4: Class I Towns in Assam, 2001

Tinsukia 7% Nagaon 8%

J orhat 9%

Guwahati 55% Silchar 12%

Dibrugarh 9%

The Class I cities of Assam with their population are shown in the above table. It is seen that Guwahati is the largest urban centre in Assam with 23.89% of the total urban population of the state. It is also seen from the Chart that 55% of the combined population of the Class I towns of Assam is contributed by Guwahati. (Ref. Map No. 4.1).

Table 4.7: Population and number of towns in Kamrup in 2001 Sl No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Name of the town Guwahati (M Corp.) Rangia (MB) North Guwahati (TC) Sualkuchi (CT) Dharapur (CT) Chandrapur Bagicha (CT) Bamun Sualkuchi (CT) Kochpara (CT) Palasbari (MB) Amin Gaon* Households 184,454 4,901 3,179 2,747 1,526 1,624 1,436 1,130 1,015 1,268 Population 809,895 25,151 16,286 14,133 7,668 7,373 7,162 6,081 5,554 6,512

Source: Primary Census Abstract, Assam, Census of India 2001 * In 1991 Census Amin Gaon was considered as a Census Town, in 2001, it has been considered under rural area.

The maximum growth between 1951 and 2001 has been registered by Guwahati, and that too during the period 19712001, the main reason being that Guwahati was made the State Capital in 1972. The other cities, which have more than 1 lakh population in 2001, include Dibrugarh (1.21 lakhs), Silchar (1.42 lakhs) and Jorhat (1.20 lakhs). It is evident from the table that Guwahati is the

most important urban area of the state.

Fig 4.5: Population in the major urban centres of Assam

900.0 800.0 Population in thousands 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0 1951 1971 Year 1991 2001

Guwahati Dibrugarh Silchar Nagaon Dhubri

4.4

Sex Ratio and Age-Sex Structure

Table no 5.7 shows the change in sex ratio in the North-eastern states in comparison with India from 1901 to 2001. Assam with a sex ratio of 932 in 2001 compares well with the national average of 933. It may be seen from the table that among the North eastern states, the highest sex ratio is observed in Manipur (978) followed by Meghalaya (975). The sex ratio of Kamrup district has been constantly declining from 1,012 in 1901 to 894 in 2001. The urban area of Kamrup registers an even lower sex ratio of 835 females per 1,000 males. Table no 5.7 shows the change in sex ratio of Assam, Kamrup district and Guwahati city. Chart No 5.6 also shows the change in sex ration in Guwahati, Urban Kamrup, and Urban Assam.
Table 4.8: Change in Sex Ratio from 1901 to 2001: India and the NE States
Country/State 1911 1921 1931 1941 India 964 955 950 945 Arunachal Pradesh Assam 915 896 874 875 Manipur 1029 1041 1065 1055 Meghalaya 1013 1000 971 966 Mizoram 1120 1109 1102 1069 Nagaland 993 992 997 1021 Tripura 874 885 885 885 886 Source: Census of India 2001 Series 19 Assam Paper -2 of 2001 Note: The 1981 figures for Assam are estimated figures as no Census could be held in the state in 1981 Sex Ratio 1901 972 919 1037 1036 1113 1951 946 868 1036 949 1041 999 904 1961 941 894 869 1015 937 1009 933 932 1971 930 861 896 980 942 946 871 943

Table 4.9: Change in Sex ratio in Guwahati, Kamrup and Assam 1901 to 2001
Year Guwahati 1901
2
2

Kamrup Urban 500 Rural 1036 Total 1012 Urban 576

Rur

500

929

Source: Adopted from Demographic and Economic Changes in Guwahati since 1972 by P Giri published in Guwahati: The Gateway to the East edited by Alam, Das and Borah

1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1991 2001

534 528 503 567 558 497 638 783 839

534 558 534 584 572 569 706 791 835

104 964 955 912 869 880 898 925 929

984 940 925 888 842 810 855 879 894

926 613 574 605 663 661 744 838 878

923

906

885

886

878

887

912

934

940

Source: Statement 5.3, Census of India 2001 Series 19 Assam Paper -2 of 2001

There is a functional relationship between age composition of a city and components of population change. The age distribution of a city will also have socio economic significance. The level of consumption, income, social Fig 4.6: Sex Ratio: Guwahati, Urban Kamrup and Urban Assam 1901-2001 infrastructure required, participation in productive 1000 work, etc are all determined 800 by age-sex. However, the Guwahati 600 age-sex structure of Kamrup Urban 400 Assam Urban Guwahati city is not 200 available. Therefore in 0 absence of such data, the 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1991 2001 age sex pattern of Kamrup Year urban area for the years 1971 and 1991 may be compared. For the data of the two years the Socio-cultural Tables, Part IV A C Series of the Census of India of the respective years have been used. Since no census could be conducted in 1981, the data for the same is not available.

Fig 4.7: Age Sex Structure: Urban Kamrup: 1971

75-79 65-69 55-59 45-49 35-39 25-29 15-19 0-9

35.00

25.00

15.00

5.00 Percent 1971 Male

5.00

15.00

25.00

35.00

1971 Female

Fig 4.8: Age Sex Structure: Urban Kamrup 1991

75-79 65-69 55-59 45-49 35-39 25-29 15-19 0-9

35.00

25.00

15.00

5.00 Percent 1991 Male

5.00

15.00

25.00

35.00

1991 Female

Fig 4.9: Age-Sex Structure of GMA, 2001 as per Household Survey

70+ 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4

15

10

0 Percentage

10

15

M ale %

Female %

Source: Household Survey by Consultants

Fig 4.10: Literacy Rate in Assam, Kamrup and Guwahati 1991 and 2001

100.00 80.00 Percent 60.00 40.00 20.00 0.00 1991 Year

52.89 65.04 70.60 53.78

4.5 Literacy Rate

Assam Kamrup GMC

74.69 77.00

The literacy rate of Assam is computed at

2001

53.78% in 2001, while is lower than the all India average computed at 65.37%. The literacy rate in Kamrup district is 74.69% in 200, which registered an increase of 9.65% over the 1991 figure of 65.04%. The literacy rate of GMCA in 2001 was 77%, which in 1991 was 70.6%.

4.6

Migration

The discussions under this section are based on the Census 1991 figures since the Migration Tables for 2001 have not been published. The change in pattern of migration in Guwahati city between 1971 and 1991 by place of last residence is presented in the following table.
Table 4.10: Change in pattern of migration in Guwahati city
Proportion of Migrants Persons Males Females Total Migrants A Resident in India A.1 Intra-state A.1.1 Within district A.1.2 Between districts A.2 Inter-state A.2.1 From Bihar A.2.2 UP A.2.3 Rajasthan A.2.4 West Bengal B Outside India
Source: Guwahati: Gateway to the Eastand various issues of the Census

1971 58.79 63.46 51.86 100.00 83.12 49.42 25.92 23.5 33.71 11.97 3.48 2.33 6.83 16.88

1991 47.38 48.19 46.34 100.00 95.4 66.3 14.6 51.7 29.1

4.6

Table 5.10 provides the distribution of migrants by place of last residence in Guwahati city by reasons for migration as per Census 1991 figures.
Table 4.11: Migrants by place of last residence to Guwahati city by reasons for migration
Total (%) Employment (%) Business (%) Education (%) 6.0 6.3 6.6 5.9 7.5 7.9 7.0 7.1 7.4 5.4 7.6 8.0 Family movement (%) 22.5 22.3 20.6 24.8 20.8 19.5 23.1 18.4 18.4 17.9 21.5 19.9 Marriage (%) 17.3 17.5 17.1 18.0 18.6 18.1 19.6 21.2 20.3 25.6 17.9 17.2 Natural Calamities (%) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 Others (%) 22.9 22.3 21.4 23.2 21.7 21.5 21.6 23.3 23.2 23.6 21.2 20.8

Total 100.0 22.0 8.8 A Last Residence in India Total 100.0 22.4 8.8 Rural 100.0 24.3 9.6 Urban 100.0 19.9 7.8 1 Migrants from within Assam Total 100.0 24.7 6.4 Rural 100.0 26.1 6.6 Urban 100.0 22.5 6.0 1a Migrants from within District Total 100.0 23.8 5.8 Rural 100.0 24.6 5.6 Urban 100.0 20.2 6.6 1b. Migration from other districts in Assam Total 100.0 24.9 6.6 Rural 100.0 26.7 7.0

Urban 100.0 22.7 Migrants from other states in India Total 100.0 17.2 Rural 100.0 19.0 Urban 100.0 15.8 Last residence outside India Total 100.0 13.2

6.0 14.4 18.6 10.6 8.8

7.1 3.5 2.8 4.1 1.2

23.6 25.8 24.1 27.6 27.0

18.9 14.8 14.0 15.5 14.1

0.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.0

21.4 23.8 21.1 25.9 35.7

Source: Adopted from Table D-10, Census of India -1991, Series-4, Migration Tables

4.7

Population Projection for GMA

The population analysis is based on the data provided by Census, 2001 and the trend value during 1961-91. Mathematical Models usually adopted for population projection are Linear Growth Model, Geometric Growth Model, Exponential Growth Model, Modified Exponential Growth Model, Logistic Curve Method, Gompertz Curve Method, Hyperbolic Function Model and Polynomial Function Model. These estimates vary because they implicitly use distinct assumption both in present and in future population growth. Among the Mathematical Models mentioned, the models adopted in India are Linear Growth Model, Geometric Growth Model and Exponential Growth Model. The growth functions are fitted to the observed values of the past trends ignoring the irregular factors. While adopting a Mathematical Model, the following points are considered: Mathematical Models should be used for projecting the population in near future and not in periods extending beyond 25 years; In case of long term projection, they should be checked for validity and feasibility; If there is any random fluctuations or irregularity, it can be ignored.

4.7.1 Population in Guwahati Metropolitan Planning Area

The following table presents the population in GMPA from 1961 to 2001:
Table 4.12: Growth of Population in Guwahati Metropolitan Area
Year 1961 1971 1991 2001 GMCA 166,273 251,642 584,342 809,895 GMA excluding GMCA 33,209 40,387 61,827 80,878 GMCA 199,482 292,029 646,169 890,773

Note: No Census was conducted in Guwahati during 1981.

4.7.2 Linear Growth Rate Model 4.7.3 Geometric Growth Rate (Compounded Annual Growth Rate) Model 4.7.4 Exponential Growth Rate Model 4.7.5 Model Selection
It is observed that linear growth rate model has higher fluctuations. Exponential growth rates and Geometric growth rates are near to each other. Geometric Growth Rate Model has better accuracy for

future estimates although there are random fluctuations in the data. It may be mentioned here that the population has a tendency to grow in Geometric Progression. In view of this, the Geometric Growth rate (or the Compounded Annual Growth Rate may be adopted for working out the population of GMA. The population for GMC area, Area within GMPA excluding GMC area and the total GMDA area have been worked out using the high, medium and low CAGRs as in Table 5.13.
Table 4.16: The future population estimates in GMC, GMDA and area in GMDA excluding GMC area Year 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 (A) Year 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 (B) Sub-Total (A+B) Year 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Estimated Population in Guwahati Municipal Corporation Area Low 922,855 1,086,461 1,279,072 1,505,829 Medium 946,487 1,150,065 1,397,430 1,698,000 High 948,832 1,156,486 1,409,585 1,718,075 2,094,078 High 90,052 102,995 117,800 134,732 154,098 2,248,176

1,772,787 2,063,218 Guwahati Metropolitan Area excluding GMC area Low Medium 88,407 88,724 98,812 99,611 110,441 111,833 123,439 125,556 137,967 140,962 1,910,754 2,204,180 Estimated Population in Guwahati Metropolitan Area Low Medium 1,012,827 1,189,175 1,396,228 1,639,332 1,924,763 1,033,584 1,244,713 1,498,970 1,805,163 2,173,902

High 1,034,555 1,247,344 1,503,901 1,813,227 2,186,176

The population projection tables suggest that the population of GMDA area in 2025 may vary from low of 19.10 lakh to a high of 22.50 lakh. We may adopt the medium projection of 21.73 lakh for GMA for the perspective year 2025 for the Master Plan, and the same may be used for population distribution in the area.

References

2001

Census of India 2001, Series-1 India, Provisional Population Totals, Paper 1 of 2001; Registrar General and Census Commissioner, India Census of India 2001, Series-4 Assam, Provisional Population Totals, Paper 1 of 2001; Director, Census Operations Assam Census of India 2001, Series-4 Assam, Urban-Rural distribution, Paper 2 of 2001; Director, Census Operations Assam Census of India 2001, Series-4 Assam, Primary Census Abstract; Director, Census Operations Assam Census of India 2001, Series-4 Assam, Tables on Houses and Household amenities; Director, Census Operations Assam Census of India 1991, Series 1- India:, Part II-B(i), Primary Census Abstract, Registrar General and Census Commissioner, India Census of India 1991, Series 4- Assam:, Part II-B, Primary Census Abstract, Directorate of Census Operations, Assam Census of India 1991, Series 4- Assam:, Part IVa, Socio-Cultural Tables Tables, Directorate of Census Operations, Assam Census of India 1991, Series 4- Assam:, Part Va and Vb- D Series, Migration Tables, Directorate of Census Operations, Assam Census of India 1991, Series 4- Assam:, Part XII-A&B, District Census Handbook Kamrup, Directorate of Census Operations, Assam Census of India 1971, Series 4- Assam:, Socio-Cultural Tables, Directorate of Census Operations, Assam

2001

2001

2001

2001

1991

1991

1991

1991

1991

1971