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P2 Decision Management
SECTION A 20 MARKS [the indicative time for answering this section is 36 minutes] ANSWER ALL EIGHT SUB-QUESTIONS
Question One
1.1 In the context of quality costs, the cost of removing damaged goods from a customers premises is an example of: Prevention Cost Appraisal Cost Internal Failure Cost External Failure Cost (2 marks)
A B C D
1.2
When making a decision between manufacturing a component or outsourcing its production, the information required is: (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) the internal variable manufacturing cost per component the monthly volume of components required the internal fixed overhead absorption rate per component the monthly specific fixed cost total for the component the purchase price of the component from the external supplier
A B C D
(i) and (v) only (i), (iii), and (v) only (i), (ii), (iv), and (v) only (i), (ii), (iii), and (v) only (2 marks)
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November 2009
1.3
A company has predicted that its fixed and variable costs for the forthcoming period, and their associated probabilities, could be as follows: Variable production costs $4 per unit $5 per unit $6 per unit Fixed production costs per month $100,000 $120,000 $150,000
Calculate the expected total monthly cost of producing 10,000 units. (2 marks)
1.4
A project requires an initial investment of $450,000 and has a post tax net present value (NPV) of $80,000. The post tax present value of sales revenues is $630,000. Calculate the sensitivity of the investment decision to changes in the value of sales revenues. (2 marks)
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1.5
Calculate the discounted payback period of the investment to the nearest 001 years, assuming the post tax cost of capital is 12%. (2 marks)
1.6
1.7
1.8
A bakery company is considering how often it should replace its ovens. The companys post tax cost of capital is 7% per annum and it has already determined the present value of the relevant cash outflows for the three possible replacement cycles as follows: 2 year replacement cycle 3 year replacement cycle 4 year replacement cycle $178,000 $245,000 $310,000
Prepare calculations to show the optimum replacement cycle and recommend which replacement cycle the bakery should adopt and why. (4 marks)
Reminder All answers to Section A must be written in your answer book. Answers to Section A written on the question paper will not be submitted for marking End of Section A. Section B starts on page 6
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November 2009
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SECTION B 30 MARKS [the indicative time for answering this section is 54 minutes] ANSWER ALL THREE QUESTIONS. YOU SHOULD SHOW YOUR WORKINGS AS MARKS ARE AVAILABLE FOR THE METHOD YOU USE.
Question Two
The management of an independent cinema is considering whether or not to hire a movie to show in its cinema for one week. If the management decides to hire the movie it will be screened 32 times during the week. The cost of hiring the movie for the week is $256,000. The cinemas accountant has been asked to evaluate the financial effects of the decision to hire the movie and has made the following estimates: Customers The number of customers watching the movie at each screening is uncertain but has been estimated as follows: 500 customers 700 customers 350 customers 40% probability 35% probability 25% probability
The entrance price for each screening of the movie is $6 per customer. Customer contribution from sale of refreshments The average contribution per customer earned from the sale of refreshments is also uncertain but has been estimated as follows: $10 per customer $12 per customer $8 per customer 50% probability 20% probability 30% probability
The cinemas accountant has already started to produce a two-way data table. This table is shown below where $ represents the net average contribution from each screening and pr represents the probability of that combination of customers and refreshment contribution. Number of customers 500 $ pr
Refreshment Contribution
700 $ pr
350 $ pr
$12
a
3,200
0070
1,000
008
(1,700)
0050
$10
0175
b
012
(2,400)
0125
$8
1,800
0105
(1,000)
0075
Unfortunately, the cinemas accountant has been called away before he could complete the table or prepare any notes to interpret it for tomorrows management meeting.
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November 2009
Required: (a)
Calculate the values to be inserted in the table at the points marked a, b, and c.
(3 marks)
(b)
Explain how the values in the data table can be used by the management of the cinema and recommend whether or not the movie should be hired. (7 marks) (Total for Question Two = 10 marks) o
Question Three
A company has completed the testing of a new product and is now about to launch it into full production. The product will be manufactured in batches; each batch will be numbered sequentially so that costs can be collected for each batch. The manufacturing process is highly labour intensive and the first batch is expected to take 15 labour hours to complete. It is expected that an 80% learning curve will apply to the first 40 batches produced. The learning period will then end. The time taken for each of batches 41 to 60 inclusive will be the same as the time taken for the 40th batch. After 60 batches the company is planning to recruit new employees in order to increase weekly production volumes to meet expected demand levels for the product.
Required: (a)
Calculate the total time required for the first 40 batches of production. (2 marks)
(b)
Calculate the total time required for the first 60 batches of production. (4 marks)
(c)
Explain the likely effect of recruiting new employees on the time required for batches numbered 61 to 90. (4 marks) Note: The 80% learning index = -03219
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Question Four
A companys current manufacturing system is based on a constant rate of production throughout the year. The company holds a large inventory of finished goods in order to be able to satisfy sales at those times during the year when demand is greater than output. Consequently there are large variations in the amount of finished goods held in inventory. The company is considering changing from its existing manufacturing system, which uses changing inventory levels to balance production and sales volumes, to a system of just-in-time (JIT) production. The Managing Director believes that this change will reduce total production costs and therefore increase profits. However, the Marketing Director is concerned that the lack of inventory will result in lost sales unless there is a significant increase in the quality controls within the manufacturing process.
Required:
(i) Explain how a JIT production system differs from the companys existing manufacturing system. Explain why quality control systems are particularly important in a JIT environment. (Total for Question Four = 10 marks)
(ii)
End of Section B
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November 2009
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SECTION C 50 MARKS [the indicative time for answering this section is 90 minutes] ANSWER TWO QUESTIONS OUT OF THREE. YOU SHOULD SHOW YOUR WORKINGS AS MARKS ARE AVAILABLE FOR THE METHOD YOU USE.
Question Five
Company C manufactures two products. The budgeted selling price and cost per unit are as follows: Product X $/unit 86 16 12 12 20 12 14 Y $/unit 74 12 15 8 15 12 12
Selling price Direct labour ($8 per hour) Direct material A ($3 per kg) Direct material B ($4 per kg) Other variable costs Fixed overhead absorbed Profit
Demand for the products is seasonal. In order to ensure that the production facilities are not idle at various times during the year the company has signed a contract with company D to supply them with the products as own label goods. Company D Contract The company is to supply Company D with 500 units of product X and 300 units of product Y in each of November and December 2009 for $73 and $62 per unit respectively. If Company C fails to honour this contract in full in each of these months then there is a significant financial penalty for each month of their failure. November 2009 The total number of direct labour hours available to produce products X and Y in November 2009 is limited to 4,000 hours, but all of the other production resources are readily available in November 2009. In addition to the contract with Company D, the demand for products X and Y in November 2009 is 1,000 units and 800 units respectively. December 2009 In December there will be 5,450 direct labour hours available to produce products X and Y and the supply of materials will also be limited. Only 11,000 kgs of material A and 6,100 kgs of material B will be available. In addition to the contract with Company D, the demand for products X and Y in December 2009 is 1,300 units and 1,400 units respectively. Inventory Company C does not hold inventories of materials or finished goods.
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Required: (a)
Prepare calculations to determine the production plan that will maximise the profits of Company C in November 2009. (5 marks) For December 2009 only: Use graphical linear programming to calculate the optimal production plan for the month. (10 marks) Calculate the value of the monthly financial penalty at which the company would be indifferent between supplying products X and Y under the Company D contract or selling them in the general market. (5 marks) Calculate the maximum price per kg that should be paid to an alternative supplier to obtain additional material B. (5 marks) (Total for Question Five = 25 marks)
(b)
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
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Question Six
A manufacturing company uses Activity Based Costing (ABC). The companys Management Accountant has identified four categories of cost within the ABC system: Unit Costs; Batch Costs; Product Sustaining Costs; and Facility Sustaining Costs.
Required: (a)
Distinguish between the four categories of cost identified above, giving one example of each in your explanation. (8 marks)
The company uses a JIT production system and only manufactures and sells in whole batches. Costs and other data relating to the companys three products are set out below: Product B $ 39 800 300 B 200 4
A $ 18 350 500 A 50 2
The company has carried out market research to estimate the relationship between selling price and demand for each of the products. The findings of the research are set out below: Selling price/unit ($) B
Product Sales (units) First 1,000 units 1,001 2,000 units 2,001 3,000 units 3,001 4,000 units 4,001 5,000 units 5,001 6,000 units 6,001 7,000 units
50 40 35 30 23 20 15
70 65 60 55 50 45 40
80 76 73 70 64 56 45
For example, if 3,200 units of product A were sold, the research shows that the total revenue would be: First 1,000 units @ $50 each = Next 1,000 units @ $40 each = Next 1,000 units @ $35 each = Final 200 units @ $30 each = Total revenue $50,000 $40,000 $35,000 $6,000 $131,000
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Required: (b)
Calculate the production and sales of products A, B and C required in order to maximise the monthly profit from each product. Assume that sufficient resources are available within the existing cost structures to produce up to 7,000 units of each product per month. (4 marks)
Due to a fire the availability of machine hours is restricted to 20,000 hours for the next month only. (As stated above, the number of machine hours required per unit of A, B, and C are 2 hours, 4 hours and 3 hours respectively).
Required: (c)
Calculate the production and sales of products A, B and C in order to maximise the profit for next month. Assume that product sustaining costs are not avoidable. (9 marks) Explain, in detail, how you would calculate the shadow prices of machine hours for next month. No calculations are required. (4 marks) (Total for Question Six = 25 marks)
(d)
Question Seven
A hotel group is considering the purchase of a new hotel on 1 January 2010, the first day of its next financial year. The building will cost $650,000 and the equipment and other furnishings are expected to cost $250,000, also at the start of 2010. The equipment and other furnishings will qualify for tax depreciation at the rate of 20% per annum on a reducing balance basis. No tax depreciation is available on the cost of the building. The building will be sold at the end of 2014 for $650,000 and the equipment will be sold for $100,000 at the same time. Guest revenue The hotel is expected to open to guests on 1 July 2010 and guest revenue for the remainder of 2010 is expected to be $130,000. The number of guests in future calendar years is expected to increase in accordance with the following index (2010 = 100): 2011 2012 2013 2014 180 190 210 220
Guest related costs Variable guest related costs, which vary in direct proportion to the number of guests, are expected to be $20,000 in 2010. In addition, there are annual guest related fixed costs which are expected to be $40,000 in 2010. These fixed costs are not affected by the number of guests or by the opening dates of the hotel. Other fixed costs In addition to the guest related costs identified above, the hotel expects to incur other fixed costs of $25,000 per year, at 2010 prices. Inflation The hotel group expects that cost inflation (applying to all types of cost) will be in accordance with the following index (2010 = 100): 2011 2012 2013 2014 104 105 107 110
The group has decided that it will increase its prices to guests and these will increase in accordance with the following index (2010 = 100): 2011 2012 2013 2014 100 102 104 107
Taxation The hotel will be liable to Corporation Tax on its profits at the rate of 30%, payable in two equal instalments; one in the year in which the profits are earned and one in the following year. Cost of capital The hotel groups post tax money cost of capital is 8% per annum.
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November 2009
Required: (a)
Calculate the net present value of the cash flows arising from the investment and recommend to the hotel group whether or not to proceed with the purchase of the hotel. (14 marks)
(b)
Calculate the sensitivity of the investment to a change in the value of other fixed costs. (6 marks) Explain Pareto Analysis and how the hotel group could improve its profits by combining Pareto Analysis with Activity Based Costing. (5 marks) (Total for Question Seven = 25 marks)
(c)
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4% 0.962 0.925 0.889 0.855 0.822 0.790 0.760 0.731 0.703 0.676 0.650 0.625 0.601 0.577 0.555 0.534 0.513 0.494 0.475 0.456
Interest rates (r) 5% 6% 0.952 0.943 0.907 0.890 0.864 0.840 0.823 0.792 0.784 0.747 0.746 0.705 0.711 0.665 0.677 0.627 0.645 0.592 0.614 0.558 0.585 0.527 0.557 0.497 0.530 0.469 0.505 0.442 0.481 0.417 0.458 0.394 0.436 0.371 0.416 0.350 0.396 0.331 0.377 0.312 Interest rates (r) 15% 16% 0.870 0.862 0.756 0.743 0.658 0.641 0.572 0.552 0.497 0.476 0.432 0.410 0.376 0.354 0.327 0.305 0.284 0.263 0.247 0.227 0.215 0.195 0.187 0.168 0.163 0.145 0.141 0.125 0.123 0.108 0.107 0.093 0.093 0.080 0.081 0.069 0.070 0.060 0.061 0.051
7% 0.935 0.873 0.816 0.763 0.713 0.666 0.623 0.582 0.544 0.508 0.475 0.444 0.415 0.388 0.362 0.339 0.317 0.296 0.277 0.258
8% 0.926 0.857 0.794 0.735 0.681 0.630 0.583 0.540 0.500 0.463 0.429 0.397 0.368 0.340 0.315 0.292 0.270 0.250 0.232 0.215
9% 0.917 0.842 0.772 0.708 0.650 0.596 0.547 0.502 0.460 0.422 0.388 0.356 0.326 0.299 0.275 0.252 0.231 0.212 0.194 0.178
10% 0.909 0.826 0.751 0.683 0.621 0.564 0.513 0.467 0.424 0.386 0.350 0.319 0.290 0.263 0.239 0.218 0.198 0.180 0.164 0.149
11% 0.901 0.812 0.731 0.659 0.593 0.535 0.482 0.434 0.391 0.352 0.317 0.286 0.258 0.232 0.209 0.188 0.170 0.153 0.138 0.124
12% 0.893 0.797 0.712 0.636 0.567 0.507 0.452 0.404 0.361 0.322 0.287 0.257 0.229 0.205 0.183 0.163 0.146 0.130 0.116 0.104
13% 0.885 0.783 0.693 0.613 0.543 0.480 0.425 0.376 0.333 0.295 0.261 0.231 0.204 0.181 0.160 0.141 0.125 0.111 0.098 0.087
14% 0.877 0.769 0.675 0.592 0.519 0.456 0.400 0.351 0.308 0.270 0.237 0.208 0.182 0.160 0.140 0.123 0.108 0.095 0.083 0.073
17% 0.855 0.731 0.624 0.534 0.456 0.390 0.333 0.285 0.243 0.208 0.178 0.152 0.130 0.111 0.095 0.081 0.069 0.059 0.051 0.043
18% 0.847 0.718 0.609 0.516 0.437 0.370 0.314 0.266 0.225 0.191 0.162 0.137 0.116 0.099 0.084 0.071 0.060 0.051 0.043 0.037
19% 0.840 0.706 0.593 0.499 0.419 0.352 0.296 0.249 0.209 0.176 0.148 0.124 0.104 0.088 0.079 0.062 0.052 0.044 0.037 0.031
20% 0.833 0.694 0.579 0.482 0.402 0.335 0.279 0.233 0.194 0.162 0.135 0.112 0.093 0.078 0.065 0.054 0.045 0.038 0.031 0.026
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Cumulative present value of $1 per annum, Receivable or Payable at the end of each year for n years
1 (1 r ) n r
1% 0.990 1.970 2.941 3.902 4.853 5.795 6.728 7.652 8.566 9.471 10.368 11.255 12.134 13.004 13.865 14.718 15.562 16.398 17.226 18.046
2% 0.980 1.942 2.884 3.808 4.713 5.601 6.472 7.325 8.162 8.983 9.787 10.575 11.348 12.106 12.849 13.578 14.292 14.992 15.679 16.351
3% 0.971 1.913 2.829 3.717 4.580 5.417 6.230 7.020 7.786 8.530 9.253 9.954 10.635 11.296 11.938 12.561 13.166 13.754 14.324 14.878
4% 0.962 1.886 2.775 3.630 4.452 5.242 6.002 6.733 7.435 8.111 8.760 9.385 9.986 10.563 11.118 11.652 12.166 12.659 13.134 13.590
Interest rates (r) 5% 6% 0.952 0.943 1.859 1.833 2.723 2.673 3.546 3.465 4.329 4.212 5.076 5.786 6.463 7.108 7.722 8.306 8.863 9.394 9.899 10.380 10.838 11.274 11.690 12.085 12.462 4.917 5.582 6.210 6.802 7.360 7.887 8.384 8.853 9.295 9.712 10.106 10.477 10.828 11.158 11.470
7% 0.935 1.808 2.624 3.387 4.100 4.767 5.389 5.971 6.515 7.024 7.499 7.943 8.358 8.745 9.108 9.447 9.763 10.059 10.336 10.594
8% 0.926 1.783 2.577 3.312 3.993 4.623 5.206 5.747 6.247 6.710 7.139 7.536 7.904 8.244 8.559 8.851 9.122 9.372 9.604 9.818
9% 0.917 1.759 2.531 3.240 3.890 4.486 5.033 5.535 5.995 6.418 6.805 7.161 7.487 7.786 8.061 8.313 8.544 8.756 8.950 9.129
10% 0.909 1.736 2.487 3.170 3.791 4.355 4.868 5.335 5.759 6.145 6.495 6.814 7.103 7.367 7.606 7.824 8.022 8.201 8.365 8.514
11% 0.901 1.713 2.444 3.102 3.696 4.231 4.712 5.146 5.537 5.889 6.207 6.492 6.750 6.982 7.191 7.379 7.549 7.702 7.839 7.963
12% 0.893 1.690 2.402 3.037 3.605 4.111 4.564 4.968 5.328 5.650 5.938 6.194 6.424 6.628 6.811 6.974 7.120 7.250 7.366 7.469
13% 0.885 1.668 2.361 2.974 3.517 3.998 4.423 4.799 5.132 5.426 5.687 5.918 6.122 6.302 6.462 6.604 6.729 6.840 6.938 7.025
14% 0.877 1.647 2.322 2.914 3.433 3.889 4.288 4.639 4.946 5.216 5.453 5.660 5.842 6.002 6.142 6.265 6.373 6.467 6.550 6.623
Interest rates (r) 15% 16% 0.870 0.862 1.626 1.605 2.283 2.246 2.855 2.798 3.352 3.274 3.784 4.160 4.487 4.772 5.019 5.234 5.421 5.583 5.724 5.847 5.954 6.047 6.128 6.198 6.259 3.685 4.039 4.344 4.607 4.833 5.029 5.197 5.342 5.468 5.575 5.668 5.749 5.818 5.877 5.929
17% 0.855 1.585 2.210 2.743 3.199 3.589 3.922 4.207 4.451 4.659 4.836 4.988 5.118 5.229 5.324 5.405 5.475 5.534 5.584 5.628
18% 0.847 1.566 2.174 2.690 3.127 3.498 3.812 4.078 4.303 4.494 4.656 7.793 4.910 5.008 5.092 5.162 5.222 5.273 5.316 5.353
19% 0.840 1.547 2.140 2.639 3.058 3.410 3.706 3.954 4.163 4.339 4.486 4.611 4.715 4.802 4.876 4.938 4.990 5.033 5.070 5.101
20% 0.833 1.528 2.106 2.589 2.991 3.326 3.605 3.837 4.031 4.192 4.327 4.439 4.533 4.611 4.675 4.730 4.775 4.812 4.843 4.870
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November 2009
FORMULAE
Time series
Additive model: Series = Trend + Seasonal + Random Multiplicative model: Series = Trend*Seasonal*Random
Regression analysis
The linear regression equation of Y on X is given by: Y = a + bX where: b= and or solve
Covariance ( XY ) Variance ( X )
or Y Y = b(X X ), =
n XY ( X )( Y ) n X ( X )
2 2
a= Y bX
Y = na + b X XY = a X + b X2
Exponential Geometric
Y = abx Y = aXb
Learning curve
Yx = aXb where: Yx = the cumulative average time per unit to produce X units; a = the time required to produce the first unit of output; X = the cumulative number of units; b = the index of learning. The exponent b is defined as the log of the learning curve improvement rate divided by log 2.
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VERBS USED
List State Define
DEFINITION
Make a list of Express, fully or clearly, the details of/facts of Give the exact meaning of
Communicate the key features Highlight the differences between Make clear or intelligible/State the meaning of Recognise, establish or select after consideration Use an example to describe or explain something
To put to practical use To ascertain or reckon mathematically To prove with certainty or to exhibit by practical means To make or get ready for use To make or prove consistent/compatible Find an answer to Arrange in a table
4 ANALYSIS How you are expected to analyse the detail of what you have learned.
Examine in detail the structure of Place into a defined class or division Show the similarities and/or differences between To build up or compile To examine in detail by argument To translate into intelligible or familiar terms To create or bring into existence
5 EVALUATION How you are expected to use your learning to evaluate, make decisions or recommendations.
To counsel, inform or notify To appraise or assess the value of To advise on a course of action
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Managerial Level
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