EMPRESA ABC

DATOS :
Inversiones:

Terrenos
Construcciones
Equipos
Capital de Trabajo

$
$
$
$

28,000,000
14,000,000
20,000,000
18,000,000

$ 12,000,000

Ms Probable
Detalle
Ventas
Costos Variables
M. Contribucin
Gastos
Depre. Construc.
Depre. Equipos
BAIT
Impto 20%
BNT
Depre. Construc.
Depre. Equipos
Inversiones:
Terrenos
Construcciones
Equipos
Capital de trabajo
Valor Residual
Capital de trabajo
Flujo Econmico
Prstamo
Amortizacin
Inters
Renta
Flujo Financiero

Flujo 0

Flujo 1
54,000,000
8,100,000
45,900,000
18,000,000
1,200,000

Fujo 2
54,000,000
8,100,000
45,900,000
18,000,000
1,400,000
2,000,000
24,500,000
4,900,000
19,600,000
1,400,000
2,000,000

Flujo 3
54,000,000
8,100,000
45,900,000
18,000,000
1,400,000
2,000,000
24,500,000
4,900,000
19,600,000
1,400,000
2,000,000

-17,440,000

23,000,000

23,000,000

3,902,536
5,760,000
1,152,000
-25,950,536

4,370,840
5,291,696
1,058,339
14,395,803

4,895,341
4,767,195
953,439
14,290,903

26,700,000
5,340,000
21,360,000
1,200,000
0
28,000,000
12,000,000

-40,000,000
48,000,000

8,000,000

2,000,000
20,000,000
18,000,000

Flujo 4
54,000,000
8,100,000
45,900,000
18,000,000
1,400,000
2,000,000
24,500,000
4,900,000
19,600,000
1,400,000
2,000,000

Flujo 5
54,000,000
8,100,000
45,900,000
18,000,000
1,400,000
2,000,000
24,500,000
4,900,000
19,600,000
1,400,000
2,000,000

23,000,000

41,440,000
18,000,000
82,440,000

5,482,782
4,179,754
835,951
14,173,415

6,140,716
3,521,820
704,364
73,481,828

Valor compra
Depre. Acumulada
Valor Libro
Valor Mercado
Util / Prdida
Renta
Valor Residual

62,000,000
14,800,000
47,200,000
40,000,000
7,200,000
1,440,000
41,440,000

Cuota Amort. = Total Inicial / (1-(1+ i ) ^ n /i)

Cuota Amort. = 48.000.000 / (1-(1+0,12)^ -8 /0,12)
Cuota Amort. = 9.662.536
N
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Cuota

Inters

0
9,662,536
9,662,536
9,662,536
9,662,536
9,662,536
9,662,536
9,662,536
9,662,536

0
5,760,000
5,291,696
4,767,195
4,179,754
3,521,820
2,784,934
1,959,622
1,035,272

Amortizacin
0
3,902,536
4,370,840
4,895,341
5,482,782
6,140,716
6,877,602
7,702,914
8,627,264

Saldo Insoluto
48,000,000
44,097,464
39,726,624
34,831,283
29,348,500
23,207,784
16,330,183
8,627,269
5

EMPRESA ABC
DATOS :
Inversiones:

Terrenos
Construcciones
Equipos
Capital de Trabajo

$
$
$
$

28,000,000
14,000,000
20,000,000
18,000,000

$ 12,000,000

Optimista
Detalle
Ventas
Costos Variables
M. Contribucin
Gastos
Depre. Construc.
Depre. Equipos
BAIT
Impto 20 %
BNT
Depre. Construc.
Depre. Equipos
Inversiones:
Terrenos
Construcciones
Equipos
Capital de Trabajo
Valor residual
Capital de Trabajo
Flujo Econmico
Prstamo
Amortizacin
Inters
Renta
Flujo Financiero

Flujo 0

28,000,000
12,000,000

-40,000,000
48,000,000

8,000,000

Flujo 1
72,000,000
10,800,000
61,200,000
18,000,000
1,200,000
0
42,000,000
8,400,000
33,600,000
1,200,000
0

Flujo 2
72,000,000
10,800,000
61,200,000
18,000,000
1,400,000
2,000,000
39,800,000
7,960,000
31,840,000
1,400,000
2,000,000

Flujo 3
72,000,000
10,800,000
61,200,000
18,000,000
1,400,000
2,000,000
39,800,000
7,960,000
31,840,000
1,400,000
2,000,000

-5,200,000

35,240,000

35,240,000

3,902,536
5,760,000
1,152,000
-13,710,536

4,370,840
5,291,696
1,058,339
26,635,803

4,895,341
4,767,195
953,439
26,530,903

2,000,000
20,000,000
18,000,000

Flujo 4
72,000,000
10,800,000
61,200,000
18,000,000
1,400,000
2,000,000
39,800,000
7,960,000
31,840,000
1,400,000
2,000,000

Flujo 5
72,000,000
10,800,000
61,200,000
18,000,000
1,400,000
2,000,000
39,800,000
7,960,000
31,840,000
1,400,000
2,000,000

35,240,000

41,440,000
18,000,000
94,680,000

5,482,782
4,179,754
835,951
26,413,415

6,140,716
3,521,820
704,364
85,721,828

Valor compra
Depre. Acumulada
Valor Libro
Valor Mercado
Util / Prdida
Renta
Valor Residual

62,000,000
14,800,000
47,200,000
40,000,000
7,200,000
1,440,000
41,440,000

Cuota Amort. = Total Inicial / (1-(1+ i ) ^ n /i)

Cuota Amort. = 48.000.000 / (1-(1+0,12)^ -8 /0,12)
Cuota Amort. = 9.662.536
N
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Cuota

Inters

0
9,662,536
9,662,536
9,662,536
9,662,536
9,662,536
9,662,536
9,662,536
9,662,536

0
5,760,000
5,291,696
4,767,195
4,179,754
3,521,820
2,784,934
1,959,622
1,035,272

Amortizacin
0
3,902,536
4,370,840
4,895,341
5,482,782
6,140,716
6,877,602
7,702,914
8,627,264

Saldo Insoluto
48,000,000
44,097,464
39,726,624
34,831,283
29,348,500
23,207,784
16,330,183
8,627,269
5

EMPRESA ABC
DATOS :
Inversiones:

Terrenos
Construcciones
Equipos
Capital de Trabajo

$
$
$
$

28,000,000
14,000,000
20,000,000
18,000,000

$ 12,000,000

Pesimista
Detalle
Ventas
Costos Variables
M. Contribucin
Gastos
Depre. Construc.
Depre. Equipos
BAIT
Impto 20%
BNT
Depre. Construc.
Depre. Equipos
Inversiones:
Terrenos
Construcciones
Equipos
Capital de Trabajo
Valor Residual
Capital de Trabajo
Flujo Econmico
Prstamo
Amortizacin
Inters
Renta
Flujo Financiero

Flujo 0

28,000,000
12,000,000

-40,000,000
48,000,000

8,000,000

Flujo 1
40,000,000
6,000,000
34,000,000
18,000,000
1,200,000
0
14,800,000
2,960,000
11,840,000
1,200,000
0

Flujo 2
40,000,000
6,000,000
34,000,000
18,000,000
1,400,000
2,000,000
12,600,000
2,520,000
10,080,000
1,400,000
2,000,000

Flujo 3
40,000,000
6,000,000
34,000,000
18,000,000
1,400,000
2,000,000
12,600,000
2,520,000
10,080,000
1,400,000
2,000,000

Flujo 4
40,000,000
6,000,000
34,000,000
18,000,000
1,400,000
2,000,000
12,600,000
2,520,000
10,080,000
1,400,000
2,000,000

Flujo 5
40,000,000
6,000,000
34,000,000
18,000,000
1,400,000
2,000,000
12,600,000
2,520,000
10,080,000
1,400,000
2,000,000

2,000,000
20,000,000
18,000,000

-26,960,000

13,480,000

13,480,000

13,480,000

41,440,000
18,000,000
72,920,000

3,902,536
5,760,000
1,152,000
-35,470,536

4,370,840
5,291,696
1,058,339
4,875,803

4,895,341
4,767,195
953,439
4,770,903

5,482,782
4,179,754
835,951
4,653,415

6,140,716
3,521,820
704,364
63,961,828

Valor compra
Depre. Acumulada
Valor Libro
Valor Mercado
Util / Prdida
Renta
Valor Residual

62,000,000
14,800,000
47,200,000
40,000,000
7,200,000
1,440,000
41,440,000

Cuota Amort. = Total Inicial / (1-(1+ i ) ^ n /i)

Cuota Amort. = 48.000.000 / (1-(1+0,12)^ -8 /0,12)
Cuota Amort. = 9.662.536
N
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Cuota

Inters

0
9,662,536
9,662,536
9,662,536
9,662,536
9,662,536
9,662,536
9,662,536
9,662,536

0
5,760,000
5,291,696
4,767,195
4,179,754
3,521,820
2,784,934
1,959,622
1,035,272

Amortizacin
0
3,902,536
4,370,840
4,895,341
5,482,782
6,140,716
6,877,602
7,702,914
8,627,264

Saldo Insoluto
48,000,000
44,097,464
39,726,624
34,831,283
29,348,500
23,207,784
16,330,183
8,627,269
5

VAN ECONMICO

VAN FINANCIERO

VAN Ms probable

VAN Ms Probable

VAN

-40,000,000

VAN
VAN

-40,000,000
61,634,356

-16,398,684

-5,200,000
(1+0,0635)^1

-4889516

-26,960,000
(1+0,0635)^1

-25,350,259

VAN Optimista
VAN
-40,000,000

VAN
VAN

-40,000,000
112,616,454

VAN Pesimista
VAN
-40,000,000

VAN
VAN

-40,000,000
21,911,613

-17,440,000 + 23,000,000 + 23,000,000 + 23,000,000 +

82,440,000
(1 + 0,0635)^1
(1 + 0,0635)^2
(1 + 0,0635)^3
(1 + 0,0635)^4
(1 + 0,0635)^5
20,335,406

19,121,209

17,979,510

35,240,000 + 35,240,000 + 35,240,000 +

(1+0,0635)^2
(1+0,0635)^3
(1+0,0635)^4
31157379

29297018

27547737

13,480,000 + 13,480,000 + 13,480,000 +

(1+0,0635)^2
(1+0,0635)^3
(1+0,0635)^4
11,918,316

11,206,691

10,537,556

60,596,915

94,680,000
(1+0,0635)^5
69503836

72,920,000
(1+0,0635)^5
53,599,309

VAN

8,000,000

VAN
VAN

8,000,000
70,116,934

VAN Optimista
VAN
8,000,000

VAN
VAN

8,000,000 +
119,849,764

VAN Pesimista
VAN
8,000,000

VAN
VAN

8,000,000
31,435,845

-25,950,536 +
14,395,803
+
14,290,903 +
14,173,415
(1 + 0,0734)^1
(1 + 0,0734)^2
(1 + 0,0734)^3
(1 + 0,0734)^4
-24,176,016

12,494,323

11,555,132

10,676,481

-13,710,536 +
26,635,803
+
26,530,903 +
26,413,415
(1 + 0,0734)^1
(1 + 0,0734)^2
(1 + 0,0734)^3
(1 + 0,0734)^4
-12,772,998

23,117,593

21,451,974

19,896,569

-35,470,536 +
4,875,803
+
4,770,903
+
4,653,415
(1 + 0,0734)^1
(1 + 0,0734)^2
(1 + 0,0734)^3
(1 + 0,0734)^4
-33,045,031

4,231,779

3,857,588

3,505,302

73,481,828
(1 + 0,0734)^5

51,567,016

85,721,828
(1 + 0,0734)^5

60,156,626

63,961,828
(1 + 0,0734)^5

44,886,207

Cul es la Probabilidad de que sea el VAN > a 0 ?

Senbilizar
Ms Probable
Optimista
Pesimista

Probabilidades
0.333333333
0.333333333
0.333333333

Desviacin Estndar

VAN
VAN ponderado
70,116,934
23,372,311
119,849,764
39,949,921
31,435,845
10,478,615
73,800,848

(VAN - VAN Pond)^2 x Prob.

728,353,258,894,651
2,127,994,937,416,920
146,401,830,090,286
3,002,750,026,401,860

56,855,512.53

Z = VAN - VAN pond / Desv. Estndar

Z = 0 - 76.882.801 / 56.855.512,53
Z
-1.298042079

0.0885

La Probalidad de que el VAN sea > 0 es de 0,9115 = 91,15 %

Mtodo CAPM
A.

Frmula : CAPM = rf + (rm-rf)x B

rf
rm
B

0.05
0.2
0.09

CAPM = 0,05 + (0,2 - 0,05 ) x 0,09

CAPM = 0,05 + 0,15 x 0,09
CAPM = 0,05 + 0,0135
CAPM = 0,0635
CAPM
6.35%

B.

Datos:
Deuda
P. Retorno
Tasa banco
Impto

60%
15%
10%
20%

Frmula: Ko= (% patr./ pasivo total x Ke ) + (% patr./deuda total x Ki (1-t))

Ko = ( 0,0635 x 0,4 ) + (0,10 ( 1- 0,2) x 0,6)
Ko = 0,0254 + 0,08 x 0,6
Ko = 0,0254 + 0,048
Ko = 0,0734 = 7,34 %