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Investments--commitment of funds to one or more assets in the expectation of reaping future benefits. Financial assetsclaims on real assets Real assetsassets used to produce goods and services. Types of financial assets: fixed income securities, equities, and derivative securities. Investment process: 1-asset allocation-choice among broad asset classes. 2-security selection-choice of specific securities within each asset class. Financial markets are highly competitive: 1- risk-return tradeoff 2- efficient markets Financial intermediaries: bring lenders and borrowers together. Markets: 1- direct search markets 2- brokered markets 3- dealer markets 4- auction markets Recent trends Globalization--ADRs Securitization Financial engineering Perspective on investing: each individual must develop an overall financial planincludes purchase of house, insurance, and emergency reserve Professional designations: 1) Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), 2) Certified Financial Planner (CFP), and 3) Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC) Good investors must come to gripes with is uncertainty. All market participants, including professionals, make errors. No one can consistently forecast what will happen in the financial markets.
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Level 2 receive all bid/ask quotes Level 1 receives only highest bid and lowest ask prices Third market: OTC trading of exchange-listed securities Fourth market: direct trading in exchange-listed securities. Electronic Communications networks (ECNs) Types of orders: market order, limit order, stop order Role of specialist: maintain a fair and orderly market and provide price continuity to the market. Block sales: Super-Dot system Settlement: within three business days Full service vs. discount brokers Buying on the margin: initial margin and maintenance margin Short selling: Regulation of securities markets: Securities Act of 1933: new issues Securities Act of 1934 established the SEC Securities Investor Protection Act of 1970 Circuit breakers: trading halts and collars Insider trading
Chapter 4 Mutual Funds and Other Investment Companies Investment company: Financial intermediaries that invest the funds of individual investors in securities or other assets. They provide: 1- record keeping and administration 2- diversification and divisibility 3- professional management 4- lower transaction cost NAV = (market value of assets liabilities)/shares outstanding Types of Investment Companies Unit investment trust: typically an unmanaged portfolio of fixed-income securities that are almost never changed; have one of five year holding periods. Closed-end investment companies: has a fixed capitalization whose shares trade OTC. The shares may sell at premium to NAV or at a discount. Commingled funds: trusts or retirement accounts managed by a bank, or insurance company. Real estate investment trusts (REITs): invest in real estate and is similar to a closed end fund. Mutual funds: new shares are sold and outstanding shares are redeemedformed by an investment advisory firm that selects the board of trustees, who hire a separate management company. Shares are sold and redeemed at NAV. Types of mutual funds 1- Money market fundstaxable and tax-exempt funds. 2- Equity funds 3- Fixed income funds 4- Balanced and income funds 5- Asset allocation funds 6- Index funds 7- Specialized sector funds Use quuotes from WSJ
Costs of investing in mutual funds 1- front end load 2- back end load 3- operating expenses 4- 12b-1 expenses Mutual funds are not taxed but investors are taxed on dividends and gains. Mutual fund performance: Index funds outperformed 81% of managed funds in last decadeSalomon Broad Index outperformed 80% of managed bond funds. Information on mutual funds: use Morningstar. One should match investment objectives with fund types. Prospectus shows investment objectives; its current portfolio; management fees; turnover rate.
risk-free. The most important decision an investor makes. This decision accounts for 94% of the differences in returns on institutionally managed funds. In investing, leave the proportion of each asset in the risky portfolio unchanged but change portfolio risk by changing the risky/risk-free asset mix. Risky asset: The weight of the risky portfolio in an investors portfolio. Risk-free asset: The weight of T-bills and/or money market securities in the portfolio. Capital allocation line: Fig. 6.8 Risk tolerance and asset allocation Passive strategies: A strategy built on the premise that securities are fairly priced and the investor should select a diversified portfolio that mirrors a broad group of securities. Such strategies are called indexing. Index funds: their record and why invest in them. Costs and benefits of passive investing:
Expected rate of return: E(rp) = wBE(rB) + wSE(rS) Var.: p2 = (wBB)2 + (wSS)2 + 2(wBB)(wsS)BS Discuss Fig. 7.3 The mean-variance criterion: The selection of those portfolios that are mean-variance efficient. Discuss Fig. 7.4 The optimal portfolio with a risk-free asset: Discuss Fig. 7.5 7.7. Efficient Diversification: 1- identify the most efficient risk-return combinations available, 2- determine the optimal portfolio, & 3- choose an appropriate mix between the optimal risky portfolio and the risk-free asset. Separation property: The portfolio choice can be separated into two independent tasks. First, is the determination of
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the optimal risky portfolio. The second task is the personal choice of the amount of the risky and risk-free asset to have in the portfolio. (This process is sometimes called the separation theorem.) Single-factor asset market A factor model is a statistical model used to measure the firm specific versus systematic risk of a stocks return. The single index model of security returns uses a market index, such as the S&P 500, to represent systematic risk. The excess return on a security may be stated as: Ri = i + M + ei The model specifies the two sources of risk: market or systematic risk attributable to the securitys sensitivity to market movements and firm specific risk. The above equation is a single-variable regression equation of Ri on the market excess return RM. The regression line is called the security characteristic line. The slope of this line is beta. The average security has a beta of 1, while aggressive securities will have a beta that is greater than one. A security can have a negative beta, which means that it provides a hedge against systematic risk. The beta of a portfolio is the simple average of the individual security betas. When risk This risk forming highly diversified portfolios, firm-specific becomes irrelevant. Only systematic risk remains. means that for diversified investors, the relevant measure for a security will be the securitys beta, .
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The CAPM and Index Models: The CAPM relies on a theoretical market portfolio, however, the use of an index model, utilizing the S&P 500, comes close to representing the market portfolio. ri rj = i + i(rM - rf) ei Estimating the index model: Regression of a securitys return on the returns of an index. Explain Table 8.5 and Fig. 8.6 CAPM and the Index model: Discuss Tables 8.7 8.9 And Figs.8.7 8.10 Predicting Betas: Betas are not consistent; there is a regression toward the mean. CAPM and the real world Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT): skim pp. 252 260.
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2- The selection bias issue 3- The lucky event issue Tests of the efficient market Weak form evidence: test statistically the independence of stock prices changes (serial correlation and signs tests). Little evidence exists that technical trading rules based solely on past price and volume data can outperform a simple buy and hold strategy. Filter rules: Predictors of broad market movements: Market anomalies: Semistrong form evidence: use of event studies. Abnormal return = ARit = Rit E(Rit) Cumulative abnormal return = CARi = ARit P/E effect Small firm in January effect Neglected firm effect and liquidity effects Book-to-market ratios Reversal effect Inside information Postearnings announcements Value Line enigma Market crash of October 1987. 20% in one day! Mutual fund performance: these people are professionals arent they? So, are markets efficient? The market is quite efficient but not totally efficient.
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Zero coupon bonds: tax treatment Original issue discount bonds STRIPS Yield curve: term structure of interest rate Term structure of interest ratesthe relationship between time to maturity and yields for a particular category of bonds at a particular point in time. Yield curve: the relationship between yields and time for bonds that are identical except for maturity. WSJ CURVE Term structure theories: 1- expectations theorylong-term rate is equal to an average of the short-term rates that are expected over the long-term period. 2-Liquidity preference theoryinvestors receive a liquidity premium to induce them to lend long-term. 3-market segmentation theorymarket participants may operate only within certain maturity ranges. 4-preferred habitat theoryinvestors have preferred maturity sectors but are willing to shift to other maturities if they are adequately compensated.
2-the higher the coupon, the greater the dependence of the total $ return from the bond on reinvestment of the coupons Malkiels bond theorems: 1- Bond prices move inversely to interest rates. 2- A decrease in rates will raise bond prices more than a corresponding increase in rates will lower prices. 3- For a given change in market yields, changes in bond prices are directly related to time to maturity. 4- The % price change that occurs as a result of the direct relationship between a bonds maturity and its price volatility increase at a diminishing rate as the time to maturity increases. 5- Bond price fluctuations (volatility) and bond coupon rates are inversely related. Problem: interest rates affect returns both positively and negatively: price change and reinvestment rate change. Solution: Duration: weighted average time to recover all interest payments plus principal...measured in years. Present duration equation and how to calculate. Duration will always be less than the time to maturity for coupon bonds. Use of duration. 1- measure of the effective maturity. 2- used to immunize portfolios 3- measure of the interest rate sensitivity of a bond portfolio. P = -(D*y)P Duration is related to the key bond variables: 1- Duration expands with time to maturity but at a decreasing rate 2- YTM is inversely related to duration. 3- Coupon is inversely related to duration Duration lives of measures Duration duration tells us the difference between the effective alternate bonds; used in immunizations and of bond sensitivity to interest rate movements. is additive, which means that a bond portfolios is a weighted average of each individual bonds
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duration, i.e. bond portfolio are relatively easy to rebalance. Passive Bond Management Passive management strategiesinvestor does not actively seek out trading possibilities in attempting to outperform the market. Choose bonds that match their objectives, risk, and return profiles. 1- buy and hold. 2- Bond indexmatch an index Immunizationa hybrid strategy. Protect a bond portfolio against interest rate risk. Portfolio is immunized if the duration of the portfolio is equal to the investment horizon. Convexity: a term used to refer to the degree to which duration changes as YTM changes. Active Bond Management The bond variables of major importance in assessing the change in bond prices are coupon and maturity. Implications: 1- to obtain maximum price change for a given expected change in interest rates, purchase low-coupon long maturity bonds. 2- To protect against an expected change in interest rates, choose large coupon, short maturity bonds. Types of bond swaps: 1- Substitution swap: the exchange of one bond for a bond with similar attributes but more attractively priced. 2- Intermarket spread swap: switching from one segment of the bond market to another. 3- Rate anticipation swap: a switch made in response to forecasts of interest rate changes. 4- Pure yield pickup swap: moving to higher yield bond, usually with longer maturities. Spreads change over timewiden during recessions and narrow during times of economic prosperity. Interest rate swaps: derivative security.
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Pitfalls in P/E analysis 1- earnings based on accounting 2- P/Es change over the business cycle 3- The denominator of the ratio responds more sensitively to the business cylce than the numerator. Understanding the PE model can help investors understand the dividend discount model. Price/Book value sometimes used to value companies particularly financial services companies. Price/Cash Flow ratio: Price/Sales ratio:
Building portfolios: Asset allocation: refers to the allocation of portfolio assets, i.e., how much in stocks and bonds. Asset allocation is the investors most important decision. Passive strategy: Buy and Holdreducing transactions and research costs. Index funds: Active strategy: assumes that investors possess some advantage relative to other market participants, i.e., superior analytical or judgement skills, superior information, or ability to do what other investors are unable to do. Security selection: financial analyst role is to attempt to forecast stock returns through forecasting EPS. Uses management presentations, annual reports, industry data, etc.
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Buying puts 1- bearish on the underlying stock 2- maximize the leverage potential 4- Used to protect an investors profit Covered call Protective puts Portfolio insurance Straddle Spreads Collars Option like Securities Callable bonds Convertible securities Warrants
Daily price movements/limitations (Put quote from WSJ on board and explain terms) Margin: good faith deposit to ensure completion of the contract. Initial margin: each clearing house sets its own but brokerage firm can require a higher margin Market to market daily: maintenance margin, margin calls. Methods of delivery Hedgers: futures position is opposite to their position in the cash market. Short (sell) hedge: sell the futures Long (buy) hedge: purchase a futures position Basis = cash price futures price Basis must be zero on the maturity date of the contract Basis risk Speculators: buy or sell in an attempt to make a profit Floor traders (locals) speculate because: 1- leverage 2- ease of transactions 3- low transaction costs Determination of futures prices: spot-futures parity Financial futures: contracts on equity, fixed-income securities, and currencies. Interest rate futures (Go over quote) Hedging with interest rate futures: short hedge Speculating with interest rate futures Explain basis risks Stock index futures (Go over WSJ quote) Hedging with stock index futures Short hedges Long hedges Limitations of hedging with stock index futures Program trading Triple witching Use of currency futures: car dealer protects against fall in dollar.
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Asset allocation: the % of funds to be placed in stocks, bonds, and cash. The key is to know when and how to rebalance asset allocation because trade-offs are involved. Objectives of active portfolio management:
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