Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Edited by:
Emad Sadeghinezhad
KGH080002
Lecturer:
T.M.I. Mahlia
Academic Year-(Semester):
Session 2008/2009-(Sem. 2)
0
Contents
List of Tables 2
List of Figures 3
Abstract 4
Nomenclature 5
1. Introduction 6
3. Survey Data 7
4. Methodology 8
5. Results and Discussions 13
6. Conclusions 18
Reference 19
1
List of tables
Table 3, emission from fossil fuel per GJ energy use by transportation sector 8
Table 4, predicted data for the years 2005 to 2030- Fuel Type (ktoe) 10
2
List of Figures
Figure 1, ratio of fuels-all of fuels exist but only 3 of them are visible-unit 11
3
Abstract:
and industrialization. As the same time, the usage of energy is increasing year
economic welfare of the people. This study will focus on the road transport in
motorised vehicle.we will show in this study energy demand and emissions
4
Nomenclature
c, k constant values
Emi total emission for a unit of transportation sector in year i (kg, ton)
y predicted value
5
1. Introduction:
As all are aware, in Malaysia, the transport sector is the largest
consumption of the petroleum products. It is because of the use of the petrol
as a source to move their vehicles. A study conducted by Pusat Tenaga
Malaysia estimated that the share of final energy use by the transport sector
will decline from 36.2% in 2000 to about 28% of total energy use by the year
2020. It is anticipated that the market for private vehicles will reach
saturation point and at the same time there will be an increase in the use of
public transport. The share of freight transport is also expected to increase. As
a whole, consumption of fuel by the transport sector will still increase but at a
slower phase. The transportation sector not only consumes a big portion of
petroleum products, it is also the largest polluter. Emissions from vehicles
contain carbon dioxide (CO2), hydrocarbon (HC), carbon monoxide (CO),
nitrogen oxide (NOx), sulfur oxide (SOx), particulate matter (PM) and other
chemicals. Aside from the emissions of SOx and PM, mobile sources dominate
the emissions of NOx, HC and particularly CO. The explosion in demand for the
transportation of both people and goods is one of the causes that led to high
growth rates in demand for oil products. In most Asian countries this growth
can be expected to be more rapid than growth of the economy as a whole.
There has been little success in reducing energy consumption and emissions
by mobile sources. It is important to plan and undertake various steps to
prevent future adverse impacts of transport energy use on the environment
and public health.
6
2. Survey data:
The data used for this study are the final energy used by transportation
sector data, types of fuels that were used in previous years and CO2, SO2, NOx
and CO emission from fossil fuel which use by transportation sector. All of the
survey data are shown in Tables 1, 2, and 3. To change the units of data
together we can use this term :{ 1 toe = 10 Gcal = 41.868 GJ}
Year Total(Ktoe)
1980 2398
1985 3477
1990 5387
1995 7827
1996 8951
1997 10201
1998 9793
1999 11393
2000 12071
2001 13137
2002 13442
7
Fuel Emission
CO2 (kg/GJ) SO2 (g/GJ) NOx (g/GJ) CO (g/GJ)
PETROL 73.00 2.28 1368.76 3490.86
DIESEL 74.00 2.34 284.55 102.66
ATF 72.00 2.30 310.16 132.06
NG 53.90 0.00 488.00 214.00
(Table 3, CO2, SO2, NOx and CO emission from fossil fuel per GJ )
3. Methodology:
This analysis is generally based on modelling methodologies to figure
out the potential emissions from transportation in Malaysia in the future. For
this purpose, firstly, the energy demand and types of fuels use in
transportation sector should be recognized. Some of the data are already
available but other data have to be calculated with admiration to the country
energy consumption trend. Transport infrastructure in Malaysia has been
growing at a phenomenal rate. The method used to estimate the rest of the
calculation data is polynomial curve fitting. The method is an attempt to
describe the relationship between variable x as a function of available data
and a response y, which seeks to find some smooth curve that best fits the
data, but does not necessarily pass through any data points. Mathematically, a
polynomial of order k in x is expressed in the following form [5]:
(1)
The common gases include CO2, SO2, NOx and CO. The emission pattern
of transportation can be calculated by the following equation:
EMi = (TFi1 * EFp1+ TFi2 * EFp2+ TFi3 * EFp3+...+ TFin * EFpn)
(2)
Whit these two initially equations the needed data can be extracted.
8
4. Data Analysis:
There are three types of data to be analysed for instance energy demand
data, consumption of different fuels and amount of GHGs emissions from each
fuel. Demand of energy data is from about 3 decade ago till now, so I must
anticipate future demand of energy with considering to the previous data.
Based on the data shown in Table 1, using Eq. (1), the total energy demand in
Malaysia from the year 2005 to 2030 can be predicted by the following
equation:
Y = - 0.0515x 3 + 20.084x 2 + 97.07x + 2426.9 R²=0.9925
(3)
Based on the data shown in Table 2, using Eq. (1), the fuel use in
transportation of Malaysia from the year 2005 to 2030 can be predicted. The
amount of petroleum used for transportation in Malaysia can be predicted by
the following equation:
Y = 0.576 x 3 + 26.036 x 2 33.303x + 1380 R²=0.9849
(4)
9
The amount of Natural gas (NG) used in transportation in Malaysia can
be predicted by the following equation:
Y = 0.0119 x 3 0.3075 x 2 + 2.0084 x 1.0856 R²=0.7469
(8)
The results of the predicted data based on Eqs. (3) to (9) from the years
2005 to 2030 are tabulayed in !!!!! !! M $%
, 9 , ( , , 9 9 1 M
, , ( , , ( , , 9
, , ( % , 9
1 1 % , 1
1 2 , 1
%
7 ) "3
2 D D D 8 D D
D
55 $!'#* * */ #!!5 $/'# 5 * '
55! $#'$ *'$# '$ 5 5*/ 5 # *
55# $''5$ *- 5 '/55 $/* 5 ! -
55' $*' *//$ **# $- 5 # $5
55* $-'*# -$ ! -'/ !! 5 ' $$
55- $/*'5 - $# /* # #*5 5 *# $
55/ 5-** - ' $5-## *55 5 -/ $#
5$5 5 ! - '$ $ 5-* - ! 5 $5! $*
5$$ 5 - 5/ $ ! ! /*$ 5 $ 5 5
5$ !!$ -$5$ $!-* $$$ 5 $ -
5$ #'#$ */ ! $'! ' #! 5 $#- #
5$! '/ 5 **5' $-$$/ !55 5 $*/ -
5$# - $/ *!$ $// * ##5 5 5 $
5$' /#!- *5#5 $-' *5 5 - !
10
2017 30905 6615 23933 3858 0 255 38
2018 32291 6104 26141 4017 0 284 41
2019 33705 5514 28492 4179 0 315 45
2020 35148 4841 30990 4344 0 349 50
2021 36619 4083 33640 4512 0 385 54
2022 38116 3234 36446 4684 0 422 59
2023 39642 2293 39413 4858 0 463 64
2024 41194 1254 42546 5036 0 506 69
2025 42772 116 45848 5217 0 551 75
(Table 4, predicted data for the years 2003 to 2025- Fuel Type (ktoe) )
100%
80%
Electricity
60% NG
Fuel Oil
ATF
40% Diesel
Petrol
20%
0%
23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
(Figure 1, ratio of fuels-all of fuels exist but only 3 of them are visible-unit (ktoe))
11
8000 80
7000 70
6000 60
Diesel, petrol, ATF (Ktoe)
Electricity, NG (Ktoe)
Petrol
5000 50
Diesel
ATF
4000 40
Fuel Oil
NG
3000 30
Electricity
2000 20
1000 10
0 0
0 5 10 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
80 6
70
5
60
fuel used(fuel oil,NG) Ktoe
4
50
(electricity) Ktoe
Fuel Oil
40 3 NG
Electricity
30
2
20
1
10
0 0
1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
year
12
8000 2000
7000 1800
1600
6000
Petrol, Diesel (Ktoe)
1400
5000 Petrol
1200
ATF (Ktoe)
Diesel
4000 1000
ATF
800
3000
600
2000
400
1000
200
0 0
1980 1985 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
After extracting new data from the primary data now must discuss
about them and obtain useful information from them to fide what we should
do in the future. Energy demand, fuels types and emissions are three objects
that are important to consider in this study.If we look to the table (4) and
suppose to grow up of the consumption of energy in the future years it is
obviously this huge amount of energy which use consume just in
transportation has some very unsuitable efficiency on the environment and
human. If today’s policy continue in future the demand of energy for
transportation sector increase about 3 times-from 14657 (ktoe) in 2003 to
42777 (ktoe) in 2025. The diagram of energy demand shown in fig. (4). As it is
shown the slope of increasing of energy demand is approximately constant
and we know the best way to decrease this slope is optimising the
consumption of energy. It folloes that a deep change must accure in the model
of consuming energy in this country.
13
Total (ktoe)
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
Total (ktoe)
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
(Figure 5, demand of energy with today’s policy)
In these days the fuels are used by the transportation devices consist of
6 types but only three types of them are major-Petroleum and Diesel. This
study show till 2025 the consumption of petroleum increase 3 times in
compare of 2003 and consumption of diesel grow about 5 times. One of the
!!!! !!!!!!!!! !!!!!!! !!!! !! !!! !!!! !!!! !!! !!!!! !! , 1 1
( , , %& M $ 9
, 1 1 +
, ; 7 0 ) % & 9 1 ,
1 1 55 5 #9 M , , 1
1 0 N 9 , 1
) , 1 1 %& (
1 , , ( , , 1 9
( 1 1 9 , ( ,
, 1 1 , @
%K 9 , , 9
( , , 9 , ,1
2 + %
3@3 , 1 ,
0( , 0 1 0 ( %K
, , 1 ,
1 % # , 9 , 1 ( 3@3
14
from 2003 to 2025. As a result of , 9 M , 8 ,
( 9 , , , , , , %
, ( , 9 M '%
8 , , , , , N ,
1 1 9 ,
% , , 2 8 % : 1
% " 9 1 9, , , , (
1 2 + %
8 8 " 6 8
15
2017 106573262 3348 719521 1093294
100000000 800000
80000000 600000
60000000
400000
40000000
200000
20000000
0 0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
16
SO2
6000
5000
4000
SO2
3000
2000
1000
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
(Figure 7, Pattern of SO2 production by transportation in Malaysia)
CO2
180000000
160000000
140000000
120000000
100000000
CO2
80000000
60000000
40000000
20000000
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
, M - , 9 , , 6
, 1 1 , 1 6
, 6 , (
1 1 % , 1 8
1 ,
9 , , ( %
17
6. Conclusions
18
Reference
1. T.M.I. Mahlia,(2001) Emissions from electricity generation in Malaysia, Renewable
Energy 27 (2002) 293–300.
2. Deborah Gordon, Steering a New Course: Transportation, Energy, and the
Environment,NY, Dorling Kindersley, 1998.
3. NOx Removal. Branch Environmental Corp. Retrieved on 2007-12-26.
4. Schwartz P. The art of the long view: planning in an uncertain world. New York:
Doubleday, 1996.
5. Klienbaum DG. Applied regression analysis and other multivariable methods. USA: ITP
Co., 1998
19