Health Strategy

Green Development Agenda Policy Reform Unit Pakistan Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf

Pakistan - A Gift of Allah

Unique Natural Heritage and assets :
Most inclined countries in the world Worlds highest mountains & Largest plateau Four full seasons Extensive river and largest canal system 10 ecological zones
225 Protected Areas (PAs) 14 national parks 99 wildlife sanctuaries / 96 game reserves.

Forests & wetlands Diverse biodiversity & wildlife

174 species of mammals and 668 species of birds 198 native and introduced freshwater fish species More than 5500 species of vascular plants

Pakistan Wasted potential !

Natural resources under stress and environmental inefficiencies not being plugged
Water - Scarcity going up : Storage capacity at 9% while world average is 40% Water - Delivery efficiency : 35-40% from canal head to root zone Forests High rate of deforestation Energy - Thermal generation efficiency low 25-35% while world average is 55% Energy- Distribution losses high : 23% which is very high Energy Security - Capacity of strategic energy reserves low : 29 days compared to 60 days (US) and 90 days (EU)

Overall : inefficient economy but with a high inherent potential for win-win improvements

Development pathway unsustainable

Environmental costs show alarming situation:
Environmental degradation costs 6% of GDP
(Rs 365 billion/annum)

Air pollution (indoor/urban air) 50% Water pollution (sanitation/hygeine) 30% Land degradation (reduce agri productivity) 20%
Estimates do not include degradation of coastal/marine environment

Climate Change further exacerbating the situation..

Pakistan where we are on climate front?

A very low emitter but one of the worst victims of climate change:
Maple-croft vulnerability index places us in High/Extreme category German-watch places Pakistan as Most affected for 2010 and in Top 10 for 1990-2010
Ran k 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Country CRI Score 3.5 6.33 8.0 11.0 14.67 17 17.83 19.67 23.50 24.17 Death Toll 1891 229 320 56165 139 24 151 47 2889 27 Deaths per 100000 inhabitants 1.1 1.59 0.70 39.3 1.73 0.81 0.40 0.44 0.22 0.35 Absolute Losses (M $ PPP) 25316 1969 7544 5537 220 1314 4745 1749 33395 262 Losses per unit GDP in % 5.42 2.80 1.73 0.25 0.65 1.73 0.66 0.71 0.33 1.77 HDI

Pakistan Guatemala Colombia Russia Honduras Oman Poland Portugal China Tajikistan

145 131 87 66 121 89 39 41 101 127

Basis of Vulnerability ?
Glacial Melting Zone

.In a neighborhood of Unavoidable vulnerability with main issue being WATER...too much and too little both cause serious consequences

Natural Disasters
Maximum natural disasters (90% in the Table) are climate related.
The damage costs of these natural disasters is going up with the top three disasters occurring in the past three years The frequency of these natural disasters is going up with 60% occurring in the past 10 years.
Disaster 1 Flood 2 Earthquake 3 Storm 4 Flood 5 Flood 6 Flood 7 Flood 8 2007 327118 1976 505000 1973 661500 1992 1000000 2007 1620000 2005 5200000 2010 9500000 Date Damage (000 US$)

Drought
9 Flood 10

1999
2001

247000
246000

Flood

2008

103000

The price tag !

Method Time period
Cost of adaptation per annum

Actual (2010)

One year (2010)

9.7++

As a percent of GDP

2010-2050

10.71

Per Capita Basis Disaster Modeling (Floods only * 3)

2010-2050 7.12 to 14.0 2010-2050 6.09 to 11.3

Adaptation to climate change is going to be a high value figure in the future (U$ 6-14 bn/yr)

Pakistan mirroring the wrong global trends..

54% growth in population from 1990 to 2008 . Already the 6th most populous country (WB)

10,000 BC 1 AD 1800 AD 1950 AD 2000 AD 2011 AD 2050 AD

= = = = = = =

5 million 150 million 1 billion 2.5 billion 6.1 billion 7 billion 9 billion

Pakistan mirroring the wrong global trends..

Pakistan s GHG emissions, though still very low, show a rising trend Poised to go up 15 times in next 40 years based on a coal based growth projection

GHG Emissions at 42 GtCO2e/ annum are 5 times what Earth can absorb (UNEP) Energy is main culprit

UNEP ETB

Pakistan mirroring the wrong global trends..

The urbanization challenge :
Pakistan has highest urbanization rate in South Asia (1990-2025) Searching for sustainable cities to absorb influx

Our foot is stuck on the accelerator and we are....

Global trends demand a re-think Green Economy

The original growth model being revisited, revised and improved.but

Still searching for a definition ?

PTI endeavors to lead Pakistan in this direction

Harnessing the Strengths

A shifting global view

The Most Dangerous Nation - 2008 The Worlds Bravest Nation 2010-11

Why?
Growing recognition of Pakistan as a strong and resilient nation and a survival economy which in the past decade has absorbed and sustained :
Two mega-floods (2010-11) Two cyclones in the South Massive Earthquake Influx of IDP s and continuing stream of Afghan refugees

Moreover, a country which has braved the security spillover and associated economic drain of the War in Afghanistan.

Shaping a new development governance

Partnership between Government-Business-Citizen Citizen Sector - Emerging, independent and assertive
Dont wait step in when Government slow or absent

Backed by Indigenous philanthropy one of the main pillars of social support and rising every year
Rs 70 100 billion/year (1998)

Sets the right priorities

Pakistan...a country with a BIG heart !

Host to the largest number of refugees in the world (1.7 Million)

Sustaining Highest number of refugees vis--vis its economic capacity

Pakistan ..innovating

On Innovation Efficiency Pakistan s economy ranks an impressive 4th, ahead of all developed and developing countries except China INSEAD Innovation Index 2011 Pakistani businesses and entrepreneurs have shown extreme resilience and ingenuity in a very adverse environment - working with minimum resources to get impressive results. Depicts Pakistans strong can do attitude in the face of a wanting enabling environment

Pakistan in Next-11 (Goldman Sachs)BUT

5 years back
Pakistan termed a country. having a high latent potential of becoming, along with the BRICs, the world largest economies of the 21st century

5 years of misrule and poor governance / eco mismgmt..

Still not being written off .Still considered an Economy waiting to happen

Tipping Point
Point demanding change . make sustainable choices.
Change is inevitable..Growth is optional
(John Maxwell)

PTI aims to deliver change and sustainable growth

Where does PTI stand ?

Pakistans only Political Party to :
Include environmental conservation in its party Constitution Objectives:
To protect the environmental resources and ensure clean air, clean water and a sustainable growth in Pakistan in the face of emerging threats such as climate change

Entrust environmental responsibility within party structure Include a focus on Environment in its election manifesto Clearly outline its green development/environmental policy

What PTI is aiming for ?

Lead to an improved quality of life for citizens of Pakistan. Shift away from BAU growth trajectory resource inefficient and pollution laden

Provide opportunities for poverty eradication, encouraging innovation and creation of green jobs

Balance the needs of development and nature conservation

How PTI will make it happen?

Keys to Implementation Create the political buy in: Political ownership

Party Constitution Election Manifesto Political mandate Public obligation Economic incentive

Translate for Public appeal Define in economic terms

State the Obvious

Challenges and Solutions Action not sloganeering

Contours of the Green Development Agenda

Policies and Plans No dearth !

Recent overarching Framework for Economic Growth (2011) Vision 2030 National Planning Blueprint Other relevant :
National Environment Policy National Sanitation Policy

5 year plans MTDF (Medium Term Dev Framework 2005-10) ADP (Annual Development Plans) PRSP (Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper)-2001-3-7

National Energy Conservation Policy

National Environmental Action Plan National Health Policy National Education Policy National Forestry Policy National Biodiversity Action Plan National Action Plan to combat desertification

National Climate Change Policy

Solutions Not rocket science

Problems are known Strategies are plenty Solutions are common sense

BUT Still. The obvious still needs to be : Clearly stated Politically owned Backed by a solution driven approach

Defining Green.
Forestry Agriculture Climate Change Biodiversity National Parks

Energy Transport Buildings Industry Waste

Air

Valuing Nature

Water
Wetlands

Green Development Agenda

Environmentl Awareness & Governance

Valuing Nature to Preserve Nature

Properly Value the life support systems that nature provides (National Ecosystem Assessment) Internalize and integrate true environmental costs in all economic decision making
National Eco budget to be prepared with national budget to reflect the impacts on nature Make natural CBA an integral part of EIAs

Water the primary challenge

Water Needs are going up
160 140 120
3000 2700 2400

Percapita Water Availibility (Cubic Meter)

Population

2100 1800 1500 1200 900

100 80 60 40 20

Existing storage capacity going down (18 MAF to 12 MAF)

600 300

0 0 1940-41 1950-51 1960-61 1971-72 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01

Years
Population Water Ava

Source: PCRWR, 2001

Climate change adding another Uncertain dimension - shrinking glaciers / Freshwater reserves
Rate of Glacial Receeding in Himalaya m/year
25 23

Yet.we are flushing more water into sea

meters

20

18

Annual Fresh Water Flow into Sea

15

Summers
1970-1990 1990-2000 34 MAF/yr 47 MAF/yr (40% increase)

Winter
1.86 MAF/yr 3.28 MAF/yr (76% increase)

10

7.3

0 1842- 1935 1935- 1990 1985- 2001

Period

Water drinkable, clean and plenty

Value water and treat as a precious resource Improve water conservation
Expand canal lining Rainwater and flood harvesting

Plug water wastage and improve storage capacity

Build new water reservoirs / dams Flood water management

Clean Drinking water provision :

Water filtration plants at each UC

Clean up the sources

Enforce water pollution standards CETP facilities at ALL Industrial estates Install water sewerage and drainage systems in ALL towns

Ensure Minimum Indus discharge to prevent sea water intrusion

Wetlands Restore and Preserve

Where we are ? Constitute 8.5% of land area Recognized by Ramsar for sustaining regional ecological processes and global biodiversity 4 regions :
(Northern alpine / Salt Range / Central Indus and Makran Coastal) 22 different types covering a total of 220 wetlands

Rising to the challenge . Recognize as critically important ecosystems delivering multiple benefits :
Watersheds for reservoirs Regulation of water quality and quantity Natural habitat for various birds and fish Storehouses and sustainers of biodiversity Tourism and recreation Blue Carbon Storage Biodiversity protection

Under threat from water pollution and climate change

Expand protection with proper management planning

Air clean and breathable

Where we are ? Rising to the challenge Deteriorating air quality in all Clean and affordable fuels CNG big cities /LPG / Cleaner gasoline Air pollution is estimated to be Clean-up Transport / Vehicles Retirement of polluting vehicles 20 times higher than WHO Establish and implement vehicle standards manufacturing standards Indoor air pollution (biomass Improve traffic fuels) is also a big issue management/pedestrian/cycle paths Vehicle check up system for air High and rising direct & indirect pollution Yearly certificates economic costs
Transport, industry, energy and deforestation the main sources of Urban forestry sinks air pollution Air monitoring system in all

Mass Transit Systems PP Partners

Choking our population with major cities slow poisoning ? Strict enforcement of industrial standards with incentives (SMART)

Energy Affordable and sustainable

Where we are ? A low GHG emitter but poised for major growth 15 fold increase expected in next 40 years Shift to coal powered electricity generation (imported + Thar coal) Huge losses in distribution and transmission Inefficiencies in industry and household use A cleaner growth is possible Rising to the challenge ..
Clean Coal power generation the priority (Imported + Indigenous)
Get best available clean coal process (transport/handling/usage) and technologies and capitalize on carbon credits Carbon Capture and Storage options

Enhance share of RE in national grid mix:

Wind Power in south wind corridor Solar power -solar thermal / tubewell pumps Small hydro potential in KPK/NAs

Nuclear and Large Hydro as clean energy Energy Conservation win-win

Energy labeling , Smart Grids Energy audits and ESSCOs for buildings Inefficient Tube well replacement Solar water geysers program Consumer awareness building program

Efficiency enhancements of power plant

Buildings Livable, affordable and green

Shift towards efficient building designs
Large potential for energy savings

Establish and comply with Green building codes ESSCO s concept with carbon crediting to be employed:
Energy efficiency construction Efficient lighting Insulation enhancement Solar water heating Natural lighting maximizing

Agriculture Producing more with less

Enhance efficiency of irrigation Water use
Conservation / Canal lining Hill torrent irrigation system Rain water harvesting Solar powered water pumping Recycle/reuse agriculture water

Expand Organic farming and reduce intensive pesticide use

IPM, biological pest management

Undertake responsive land use planning

Control urban encroachments

Develop Climate resistant crop varieties

Waste Manage + profit to zero waste

Develop integrated waste mgmt plan targeting zero waste :
Waste collection, handling and disposal including recycling / reuse Utilization for energy + fertilizers + carbon credits Localized action facilitative finance

Public private mechanism Ban on plastic bags

Strict enforcement with alternate reusable or biodegradable bags manufacturing

Shared hospital waste incineration E-waste regulate for disposal

Forestry Restore and expand

Where we are ? Highest rate of deforestation (1.8-2%)
Coniferous forest decline (40000 ha/year)

Low area coverage of forests (Less than 5%) Low survival rates - afforestation campaigns Poor valuation of forest eco services Precious Mangrove forests under threat from fuelwood use pressure, although Largest found in any arid climate Coastal protectors

Rising to the challenge Aim to double the countrys dismal forest cover in 5 years True Forest valuation to be done
Timber, watersheds, biodiversity, carbon sinks, flood protection

Public-private mechanisms
REDD+ through proper regulations Community based stewardship

Tackle timber mafias Promote non-traditional forestry

Urban / Riverine / Catchment / Mangroves / Farm forests

Halt conversion of forest lands Provide alternate fuels

Biodiversity Preserving natures gifts

Commit to a comprehensive valuation / inventory of our treasure of biodiversity (flora/fauna/threatened species with ranking)
Snow Leopard / Markhors / Houbara Bustard / Blind Dolphin / Green Turtles / Tragopan pheasants

Need to document and preserve our natural heritage for future generations Community engagement/empowerment for management of natural treasures
True custodians and stakeholders

Treat genetic diversity as global assets

National Parks / Green Areas

Repositories of biodiversity and living lungs

Translate from paper to efficiently manage eco parks

Eco tourism promotion Medicinal plants Trophy hunting for conservation Community based management

Public parks for each small town with publicprivate management

Eco parks or safari parks for entertainment Public land to be leased

Climate Change Adapt and mitigate

Transform from Most Vulnerable to Most Adaptive
Mainstream climate risks + costs into decision making Vulnerability mapping of country to understand the challenge Climate proof existing infrastructure Climate resilient development for the future Community based adaptation schemes

Climate Fund Development

Leverage funds for adaptation/mitigation

Environmental Awareness
Environmental education to start at primary level Inform and motivate public :
Green Youth volunteers program / Clean up classes in school Responsible custodians of nature Utilize religious platforms - message of sustainable consumption and conservation Encourage Media to promote sustainable values

Finally..Environmental Governance
Environment to be placed at core of the PTI development agenda Strong EIA enforcement / Government to lead Commit to include environmental rights as basic human rights under constitution Green Benches institutionally support with knowledge based network Technical cadres to be set up at Ministry level

Selling the PTI Green Agenda

Shift towards a new alternate economy built upon parameters defined : Promise of clean air and clean water to people Deliver green jobs with benefits to people all across Pakistan

Green jobs possibilities ?..huge !

Green Jobs reality check !

In UK a Green Economy of GBP 122 billions a reality of 2011-12
(Source Green Economy A success story)

Almost a million Green Jobs have been created in an, otherwise weak, economy Almost equal to financial services More than telecom sector

Green Jobs reality check !

In USA growth of green jobs nearly two and a half times faster than overall jobs
(between 1998 and 2007 in USA (PEW Report)

1. Renewable promotion 2. Energy efficiency improvements 3. Pollution control and waste recycle / reuse 4. Organic agriculture, sustainable forestry 5. Environmental education

3.1 million green jobs created in 2010-11

(BLS Survey 2012)

Five Million Green Jobs in 5 years

An alternate growth pathway

Clean, Sustainable, Achievable

Financing the transition..

No money from the sky
Set green priorities for internal financing after CBA ! Mostly incremental financing

Re-align PSDP financing

Prioritize freed fiscal space towards a green focus !

Public-private partnerships
Capitalize on win-win investment opportunities

Leverage through a Green Development Fund

Tie up with global funds (GCF, REDD+, Bilateral donors)

Delivering Hope With Passion and Planning !

Sar-sabz Pakistan