1

UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND GEOGRAPHI AL SCIENCE C EGS312S SYNOPTIC CLIMATOLOGY EXAMINATION : 2004 TIME : 3 HOURS MARKS :
INSTRUCTIONS:

185

Budget your time (~1 mark/minute)! Answer all sections. Questions do NOT carry equal marks. Use clear, properly labelled, sketches and diagrams where appropriate. No books, notes or other aids may be used in this examination. An equation sheet is provided; use as appropriate.

Section A: Answer ONE of the following essay questions (30 Marks)

1.

a) In view of the fact that General Circulation Models (GCMs) are currently the most viable techniques for obtaining a global system response to increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere, discuss the principal shortcomings and advantages of GCMs. Give due consideration to their usefulness in regional climate prediction. b) If the earth spun in the opposite direction to that of today, describe, with justification based on atmospheric dynamics, the expected mean global synoptic circulation patterns and the consequent characteristics of regional climate over South Africa. c) Discuss why the ITCZ is a key important component of the global atmospheric circulation and of the climate system. Include appropriate references to: - the main physical, dynamical characteristics, and temporal variability, - the importance for Earth's heat budget, - the connection to the Hadley and Walker circulations, - connections to the dry subsiding regions of the world. d) Discuss why, and how, the oceans are an important controlling factor of climate. In particular, describe how the oceans may influence local and global weather patterns, as well as slow modulations of climate over decadal to millennial time scales. Comment on how you think the oceans can affect the response of the atmosphere to global climate change?

Section B: (Short essay, 15 marks) 2. The following are quotes from an article written by a prominent South African scientist (Waterwheel, January 2004) on the regional effect of global climate warming on South Africa: There is no evidence to support the view that climate change could cause appreciable environmental damage or increase the frequency and magnitude of floods and droughts in South Africa within the foreseeable future. On the contrary, the beneficial consequences of increased global warming will be greater than the adverse effects. The general conclusion, therefore, is that global warming has not caused any environmental damage in South Africa in the past, and that future increases in global warming are more likely to be beneficial than damaging. Comment on these statements, providing clear and reasonable arguments which support or disagree with these views.

Section C: Answer FIVE of the following questions (50 marks) 3. a) Explain the difference between absolute stability, conditional instability and potential instability. (5) b) Briefly define: (5) i. ii. iii. iv. v. 4. Potential temperature Environmental lapse rate Saturated adiabatic lapse rate Lifting condensation level Elevated inversion

a) Explain how Rossby waves translate east or west as a function of wavelength. (7) b) Which Rossby waves account for most of variability over South African weather? Briefly explain how. (3)

5.

a) Describe the process by which vapour condensation ('cloud') forms in the neck of a bottle of beer when opened. (5) b) How do rain drops form and grow? What influences whether they reach the ground or not? (5)

6.

With the aid of a diagram explain the dynamics of a jet stream in the Rossby wave and the consequences for the patterns of convergence and divergence. How does this affect surface circulation? (10)

7.

a) Explain, in terms of balance of forces, why air flows anti-clockwise around a low pressure in the northern hemisphere. (5) b) With sketches, demonstrate the balance of forces involved in the following, and give and example of each: (5) i. Geostrophic flow ii. Southern hemisphere cyclonic gradient flow

8.

a) Explain what is wrong with each of the following statements: i. ii. iii. (8) "The atmosphere acts like a blanket" "The atmosphere traps emitted radiation" "The atmosphere acts like a greenhouse"

3
iv. "The atmosphere absorbs infra-red radiation, and re-emits it"

b) Define, accurately, the process in the atmosphere known as 'the greenhouse effect'. (2) 9. Describe five processes that give rise to convergence and divergence in the atmosphere and give an example of each in the southern African context. (10) 10. With reference to Figure 1, identify on the figure the main features of this system. Outline the conditions that are necessary for this system to form. (10) 11. Define a cut-off low. Describe how a cut-off low forms and explain why it tends to be most common in the transition season. With which other system may a cut-off low be associated with to cause severe localised flooding? (10)

Section D: Answer all questions. (35 marks) 12. a) Discuss the fundamental differences between tropical and mid-latitude circulation and how these differences influence the weather systems in these regions. (5) b) Explain how each of the following could impact the radiation balance: (3) i. ii. iii. 13. Increased low altitude cloud Increased tropospheric CO2 Decreased sea ice

a) Draw a station model for the following conditions: Thunderstorm with hail, wind from the south-east at 27 knots. Temperature is 18C. Pressure is 1002.3 hPa and has been rising steadily for the past three hours. (3) b) List briefly the steps of generating a weather forecast from the taking of observations to dissemination of the final product. (5)

14.

a) Describe how you would use isallobars to identify the trajectory of a mid-latitude cyclone. (2) b) Sketch a mature mid-latitude cyclone, identifying key features in terms of temperature, humidity, cloud and baroclinicity. (3) c) Explain why a low relative humidity is an inhibiting factor to the development of a tropical cyclone? (2)

4
d) What kind of clouds do you expect to find ahead of a front? Why are these formed? (2) 15. a) What is a mesocyclone and in what circumstances are they to be found? (3) b) Why do thunderstorms present a hazard for airplanes taking off and landing? (2) c) Why can downdraughts be both inhibiting and enhancing factors of deep convection? Describe each case. (3) d) What does the abbreviation CAPE stand for, and what does it measure? (2) Section E: Answer all questions (20 marks) 16. Study the synoptic chart shown in Figure 1. Describe the synoptic features present. Describe the likely weather conditions experienced at Cape Town from the day before (the 3rd) until the following day (the 5th). Fill in the likely month in the date section of this chart. What is the weather like at St Helena Island (Labelled to the west of the continent)? (10) 17. a) Figure 3 shows the contours of 500 hPa geopotential heights. Indicate on the map regions of convergence (C) and divergence (D). Indicate any upper air troughs or ridges. What is the feature over the eastern part of the sub-continent called? Show the position of any surface high (H) or low (L) pressure systems. What are the current likely weather conditions in Cape Town and Richards Bay? (5) b) Study the satellite image presented in Figure 4. This image was taken at 09h00 GMT on the 25 August 2004. Label on the image regions of high and low pressure. Indicate the position of cold fronts, if any. Why is there cloud over the central and eastern South Africa? Name the type of cloud at A and B. (5)

5
Section F: (25 marks) Name: _________________ Student ID: ________________

Circle the correct answer (2 marks per question) 1. Hurricanes are in: a) geostrophic balance b) cyclostrophic balance c) gradient-wind balance d) antripitic balance 2. Saturation vapour pressure a) greater with respect to water than to ice at sub-zero is.... temperatures b) dependent on temperature and liquid purity c) equal to the vapour pressure when dew point depression equals zero d) expressed as a ratio in g/kg e) a+b f) a+b+c 3. What are the two most important factors to determine the likely strength and lifetime of a thunderstorms? a) a strong inversion b) cirrus clouds c) conditional and/or potential instability d) a dryline e) vertical wind shear f) horizontal wind shear g) anticyclonic conditions

4. The Coriolis parameter is... a) zero at the equator, maximum at the poles and is a function of the earths angular velocity. b) an important component of the cyclostrophic wind c) depends on wind speed d) acts parallel to the isobars e) a+c f) c+d 5. An inversion is: a) a region where the lapse rate is absolutely stable b) conditionally unstable c) absolutely unstable d) where the temperature decreases with height e) where the temperature increases with height a) that is the way it is b) they are inefficient systems to extract energy from the atmosphere c) downdraughts and updraughts compete against each other d) downdraughts and updraughts collaborate with each other e) rain falls outside the updraught a) friction b) lack of moisture c) the eye collapses c) a + b d) b + c e) a + c a) liquid water b) ice c) water vapour d) supercooled water e) fog

6. Single-cell thunderstorms are short lived because:

7. Hurricane decrease in intensity over land because:

8. Cirrus clouds are made of:

Name: __________________ 9. Choose the incorrect answer

Student ID: ________________ a) The Walker cell is a meridional circulation, and the Hadley cell is a zonal circulation. b) The Walker cell is a zonal circulation, and the Hadley cell is a meridional circulation. c) The Hadley cell is primarily responsible for circulation around South Africa. d) Polar and tropical circulation systems are driven directly by thermal effects. e) Mid latitude systems are driven by thermally indirect effects. f) b+e a) The emissivity of natural objects is wavelength dependent. b) Cool objects show a peak emission at wavelengths shorter than warmer objects. c) Sunsets are red due to the observer viewing scattered red light. d) Very little of the surface longwave radiation emissions are lost directly to space. e) b+c f) a+d

10. Choose the most correct statement.

True or False: (1 mark each) TRUE 11. Hurricanes move opposite to the background mean flow in which they are embedded. 12. Cyclonic gradient winds are super-geostrophic due to the centrifugal force being additive to the pressure gradient force. 13. Air at sea level, with a temperature of 25 degrees and a relative humidity of 100% is less dense than air with a temperature of 18 degrees and a relative humidity of 30% also at sea level. 14. Kelvin waves can be seen in the lee of a topographic feature as a line of interrupted clouds that get smaller further away from the topographic feature. 15. Most of the earths weather occurs in the tropopause. FALSE

7 Name: __________________ Student ID: ________________

Figure 1

Figure 2

8
Name: __________________ Student ID: ________________

Figure 3

Figure 4

9
Appendix A: Equation sheet

1 dp g dz Velocity f dn f dn 3 Average density of air at the surface = 1.2kg/m

Velocity=

E =sT 4

Velocity=

fr f 2r2 dz rg 2 4 dr

Velocity=+

fr f 2r2 dz rg 2 4 dr

Dz=29. 27 T log e p 0 log e p1 Dz=67 . 4 T log 10 p0 log 10 p 1 g = 9.81 ms-1 = 5.67 * 10-8 Wm-2 K-4 f = constant D 0 . 622 e s q s= p0. 378 e s e x 100= 100=RH es xs T= x= 0 . 622 e p = 0.9 S = 1340 W /m2 x s= 0 . 622 e s pe s

f =2w sin f
= 7. 29 * 10-5 rad sec-1

q=

0 . 622 e p0. 3778 e

S 1 4 es

or

pr 2 S 0 1 =4pr 2 es T 4

Normands proposition: The dry adiabat through T The wet adiabat through Tw Mixing ratio line through Td

x the mixing ratio line through Td xs the mixing ratio line through T Estimated height of cloud base z = T * 100m (dry bulb potential temperature) : reduce T dry adiabatically to 1000 hPa w (wet bulb potential temperature) : reduce Tw on saturated adiabat to 1000 hPa