It's A Global Issue

Climate Warming Is a Global Problem But the impacts and potential solutions will affect us locally and in many different ways. The challenge for each of us and for our policy makers is to pursue effective responses that are as fair as possible to all people and nations. In this exhibition the National Academies provide scientific information to help us make informed decisions and to help answer some important questions. Is The Climate Warming? Are Humans Causing Climate Warming? What Effects Might Climate Warming Have? What Should Be Done About Climate Warming? The general retreat of mountain glaciers during the past century is one example of evidence that the climate is changing.

1928 South Cascade Glacier, Washington

1979 South Cascade Glacier, Washington

2003 South Cascade Glacier, Washington

A growing body of evidence indicates that humans now have a significant impact on climate. Nevertheless, it is difficult to identify humans as the only cause of a particular weather event or local climate change. THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT

Natural and Amplified Warming

Natural Warming

The greenhouse effect is a natural warming process. Carbon dioxide (CO 2) and certain other gases are always present in the atmosphere. These gases create a warming effect that has some similarity to the warming inside a greenhouse, hence the name greenhouse effect.

Sunlight brings energy into the climate system; most of it is absorbed by the oceans and land. THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT: Heat (infrared energy) radiates outward from the warmed surface of the Earth. Some of the infrared energy is absorbed by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which re-emit the energy in all directions. Some of the infrared energy further warms the Earth. Some of the infrared energy is emitted into space.

AMPLIFIED GREENHOUSE EFFECT: Higher concentrations of CO2 and other "greenhouse" gases trap more infrared energy in the atmosphere than occurs naturally. The additional heat further warms the atmosphere and Earths surface.

Amplified Warming Increasing the amount of greenhouse gases intensifies the greenhouse effect. Higher concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases trap more infrared energy in the atmosphere than occurs naturally. The additional heat further warms the atmosphere and Earths surface.

CARBON CYCLE

The Earth's Carbon Cycle

123 The Earth maintains a natural carbon balance. When concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2) are upset, the system gradually returns to its natural state. This natural readjustment works slowly, compared to the rapid rate at which humans are moving carbon into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels. Natural carbon removal can't keep pace, so the concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere increases. In the following sections, we will examine the Earth's natural carbon balance and how humans are affecting this balance. The Natural Carbon Balance Upsetting the Balance

The Natural Carbon Balance 123 Carbon continually exchanges within a closed system consisting of the atmosphere, oceans, biosphere, and landmass. There are short- and long-term cycles at work. Short-Term Cycles: Carbon is exchanged rapidly between plants and animals through respiration and photosynthesis, and through gas exchange between the oceans and the atmosphere. Long-Term Cycle: Over millions of years, carbon in the air is combined with water to form weak acids that very slowly dissolve rocks. This carbon is carried to the oceans where some forms coral reefs and shells. These sediments may be moved deep into the Earth by drifting continents and eventually released into the atmosphere by volcanoes. THE EARTH'S CARBON CYCLE

The Earth maintains a natural carbon balance. When concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) are upset, the system gradually returns to its natural state through the processes shown here. These natural processes work slowly, compared to the rapid rate at which humans are moving carbon into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels. Natural carbon removal can't keep pace, so the concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere is increasing.

OCEAN UPTAKE Dissolving of CO2 gas into the oceans and inflow of carbon carried from land by rivers. OCEAN RELEASE Return of carbon in the oceans directly back to the atmosphere as CO2 gas. SEDIMENTATION Slow burial of plant and animal matter on land and on the ocean floor, which eventually becomes limestone, coal, gas, and oil. RESPIRATION Slow combustion of carbon compounds, producing energy within organisms and releasing CO2. PHOTOSYNTHESIS Conversion of CO2 into energy-rich carbon compounds by plants.

Upsetting The Balance Human Impact 123

Like all other animals, humans participate in the natural carbon cycle, but there are also important differences. By burning coal, oil, and natural gas, humans are adding carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere much faster than the carbon in rocks is released through natural processes. And clearing and burning forests to create agricultural land converts organic carbon to carbon dioxide gas. The oceans and land plants are absorbing a portion, but not nearly all of the CO2 added to the atmosphere by human activities. HUMAN IMPACT ON THE CARBON CYCLE

The red arrow, representing rapid fossil fuel burning, indicates the main way in which humans affect the natural carbon

OCEAN UPTAKE - Dissolving of CO2 gas into the oceans and inflow of carbon carried from land by rivers.

cycle. Carbon dioxide (CO 2) levels are increasing because the natural system cannot keep pace with this new emission source. The natural processes that permanently remove this additional carbon - ocean uptake and sedimentation - work extremely slowly.

OCEAN RELEASE - Return of carbon in the oceans directly back to the atmosphere as CO2 gas. SEDIMENTATION - Slow burial of plant and animal matter on land and on the ocean floor, which eventually becomes limestone, coal, gas, and oil. RESPIRATION - Slow combustion of carbon compounds, producing energy within organisms and releasing CO2. PHOTOSYNTHESIS - Conversion of CO2 into energy-rich carbon compounds by plants.

Human Impact On The Carbon Cycle The red arrow, representing rapid fossil fuel burning, indicates the main way in which humans affect the natural carbon cycle. Carbon dioxide (CO 2) levels are increasing because the natural system cannot keep pace with this new emission source. The natural processes that permanently remove this additional carbon ocean uptake and sedimentation work extremely slowly. Time Natural changes to the carbon cycle have been very slow compared to the rate at which humans are adding CO2 to the atmosphere. The redistribution of the added CO 2 between the atmosphere, oceans, and biosphere takes hundreds of years, and the removal of the added carbon from the short-term cycle by the long-term cycle takes thousands of years. CAUSES OF CHANGE

The Natural Climate Cycle Climate Is Changed by Many Processes Climate change may result from both natural and human causes. The importance of human causes has been increasing during the past few decades. Causes The major causes of climate change are described in the following sections. CO2 and Other Greenhouse Gas Variations Human Activity and Greenhouse Gas Reducing Other Greenhouse Gases Ocean Circulation Volcanic Eruptions Solar Variations

Orbital Variations Land Use Changes Amplifiers Factors that can amplify or reduce the effect of the causes of change are known as "feedbacks." Some of the key feedbacks are described in the following sections. These feedbacks consist of interconnected processes in which a change in one leads to a change in another, which ultimately leads to further changes in the first. Aerosols Clouds Water Vapor Ice-Reflectivity The effects of these causes and feedbacks can be seen in the climate changes that are in Historic Climate Changes and elsewhere throughout this web exhibition.

CAUSES OF CHANGE

CO2 and Other Greenhouse Gas Variations 12345678910111213 Many natural and human-made gases contribute to the greenhouse effect that warms the Earth's surface. Water vapor (H 2O) is the most important, followed by carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) used in air conditioners and many industrial processes. The increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration is likely the most significant cause of the current warming. Other greenhouse gases along with other factors discussed in the following sections also contribute.

Importance of Human-produced Greenhouse Gases This diagram shows the relative importance of the major humanproduced greenhouse gases to current warming. CO2 is the most important followed in descending order by methane, CFCs, ozone and nitrous oxide.

Human Activity And Greenhouse Gases The worlds economy runs on carbon: the fuel in fossil fuels. Coal, oil, and natural gas contribute energy to nearly every human endeavor in industrialized nations, and carbon dioxide (CO2) is a by-product of burning these fuels. Immediately eliminating CO 2 emissions would literally stop the industrial world. This graph illustrates how thoroughly fossil fuels and CO2 emissions are integrated into American life.

U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector, 1997 In 1997, different sectors of the U.S. economy emitted millions of metric tons of carbon dioxide. Industry was the largest contributor, producing 610 million metric tons. Transportation emitted 470 million metric tons, residential 300 million metric tons, and commercial 280 million metric tons. Agriculture was also a contributor, with 120 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emitted.

CO2 contributes more to the recent increase in greenhouse warming than any other gas. CO 2 persists in the atmosphere longer and longer as concentrations continue to rise.

Other chemicals such as methane, nitrous oxide, and halocarbons also contribute to the global greenhouse effect. A number of additional chemicals related to urban pollution, such as lowlevel (tropospheric) ozone and black soot, can have a strong regional and perhaps global warming effect. Sulfate aerosols may have a cooling effect. Contributions of Atmospheric Gases and Solar Radiation to Warming Scientists have estimated the contribution to warming made by a range of gases, dust and solar radiation. They have a high level of certainty that greenhouse gases contribute the most to warming, with increases in CO2 as the greatest contributor with about 1.4 watts/meter2 and methane, nitrous oxide, and halocarbons making smaller contributions. Scientists have a lower level of certainty about the contributions of reductions in stratospheric ozone and increases in tropospheric aerosols, which cool the Earth by 0.3 watts/meter2 and 0.9 watts/meter2 respectively. Solar radiation may also contribute to warming but scientists have a very low certainty about the level of this contribution. educing Other Greenhouse Gases

Bessys Stomachs Methane is the second most significant cause of greenhouse warming, behind carbon dioxide. Bessy, the science cow, and her many brothers and sisters are one of the greatest methane emitters. Bessys grassy diet and multiple stomachs cause her to produce methane, which she exhales with every breath. The sheer size of her herds makes a significant contribution to global warming.

Bessy the Science Cow Bessy and her cow friends are one of the world's greatest methane emitters. Cows exhale methane, which is a byproduct of the digestion of their grassy diet.

Livestock lead rice-growing, gas-flaring, and mining in global emissions of this highly potent greenhouse gas. Options for reducing methane emissions go beyond reducing beef and dairy consumption. These mitigation strategies also include reducing methane emissions from mines, gas production facilities, and landfills. Direct Effect of Oceans on Climate The atmospheric circulation (winds) and ocean currents carry heat from the tropics toward the poles. Many processes can alter these circulation patterns, changing the climate regionally or even over the whole world. Interactions between the ocean and atmosphere can also produce phenomena such as El Nio, which tends to recur every two to six years. Changes in deep ocean circulation can produce longer-lived climate variations that endure for decades to centuries. The ice age cycles may have been influenced by changes in ocean circulation arising from changes in the Earths orbit around the Sun.

Ocean Circulation Cold water sinks at the poles and travels throughout the world's oceans. It gradually warms, becomes less dense and mixes to the surface. It then moves back towards the poles carrying heat absorbed along the way. Then the cycle continues. Without this cycle the poles would be colder and the equator would be warmer.

Effect Of Oceans On Greenhouse Gases The oceans play an important role in determining the atmospheric concentration of CO 2. CO2 gas in the atmosphere and CO2 dissolved in the ocean surface reach a balance. Changes in ocean circulation, chemistry, and biology have shifted this balance in the past. Such changes may affect climate by slowly moving CO 2 into or out of the atmosphere. Volcanic Eruptions A volcanic eruption may send ash and sulfate gas high into the atmosphere. The sulfate may

combine with water to produce tiny droplets (aerosols) of sulfuric acid, which reflect sunlight back into space. Large eruptions reach the middle stratosphere (19 miles or 30 kilometers high). At this altitude, the aerosols can spread around the world. A massive volcanic eruption can cool the Earth for one or two years. The 1982 El Chichon eruption and the 1991 Pinatubo eruption caused the globally averaged surface temperature to cool less than 1F.

Volcanic Eruptions A volcanic eruption may send ash and sulfuric acid (SO2) into the atmosphere, which increases planetary reflectivity causing atmospheric cooling. Over time precipitation will remove these aerosols from the atmosphere. Volcanic eruptions can have a worldwide impact.

Solar Variations 12345678910111213 The Sun is the source of energy for the Earths climate system. Although the Suns energy output appears constant from an everyday point of view, small changes over an extended period of time can lead to climate changes. Some scientists suspect that a portion of the warming in the first half of the 20th century was due to an increase in the output of solar energy. Learning how the Sun changed before modern instruments were available is not easy, but it appears that changes in the output of solar energy have been small over the last million years, and probably even longer. Slow changes in the Earths orbit lead to small but climatically important changes in the strength of the seasons over tens of thousands of years. Climate feedbacks amplify these small changes, thereby producing ice ages. Eccentricity Earths orbit oscillates very slightly between nearly circular and more elongated every 100,000 years. This cycle is evident in the glacial/interglacial cycles of roughly the same period.

Orbital Eccentricity The Earth's orbital path varies in the degree to which it is circular. This change in its "eccentricity" varies between 0.00 and 0.06 on a 100,000 year cycle. When the eccentricity equals 0.00 the orbital path is circular and when it is 0.06 the orbital path is slightly elliptical. The current value is 0.0167.

Tilt The Earth spins around an axis that is tilted from perpendicular to the plane in which the Earth orbits the Sun. This tilt causes the seasons. At the height of the Northern Hemisphere winter the North Pole is tilted away from the Sun, while in the summer it is tilted toward the Sun. The angle of the tilt varies between 22 and 24.5 on a cycle of 41,000 years. When the tilt angle is high, the polar regions receive less solar radiation than normal in winter and more in summer.

Earth's Tilt The Earth is tilted from perpendicular in its orientation to the Sun. This tilt varies from 22 to 24.5 on a 41,000 year cycle. The current tilt is 23.3.

Wobble

There is a slow wobble in the Earths spin axis, which causes the peak of winter to occur at different points along the Earths elliptical orbital path. This variation in the seasons occurs on an approximately 23,000-year cycle.

Wobble of the Earth's Spin Axis The Earth's axis of rotation wobbles like a top on a 23,000 year cycle. This causes the Earth's seasons to reach their maximum at different distances from the Sun due to the elliptical shape of the Earth's orbit.

Land Use Changes 12345678910111213 When humans transform land from forests to seasonal crops or from natural to urban environments, the regional climate system is altered. For example, clear-cut hillsides are significantly warmer than forests. Urban environments are also islands of heat produced by industry, homes, automobiles, and by asphalts absorption of solar energy. Land use changes are not likely to have a large, direct effect on global average temperature. Changing uses of the land are also associated with changes in the usage and availability of water, as well as the production of greenhouse gases. Deforestation can significantly increase the amount of atmospheric CO2, which warms the planet.

Land Use Changes Urban enviroments create islands of heat from industry, buildings, automobiles, and the absorption of solar energy by dark-colored surfaces.

Amplifiers: Aerosols 12345678910111213 Small particles in the air (aerosols) may have warming or cooling effects, depending on their characteristics. Sulfate (SO4) aerosol, for example, is light-colored and reflects sunlight back into space. The cooling effect of volcanic aerosols from the Mt. Tambora eruption of 1815 caused North Americas year without a summer in 1816. Sulfate aerosol is also produced by fossil fuel burning. Black soot, which is a familiar component of urban smog and smoke from wild fires, has the opposite effect. The dark particles absorb the Suns energy in much the same way that dark asphalt roads become warm on sunny days.

Aerosols Can Have Different Effects Different types of small particles can have either warming or cooling effects. Sulfate aerosols released by volcanoes reflect sunlight and cool the Earth. Black soot released by smoke stacks and wild fires absorbs solar radiation and can warm the Earth. (Photo of Redoubt Volcano courtesy of USGS DDS-39) Aerosol concentrations change for many reasons, including volcanic eruptions, spread of fires, increased windiness, drying of damp soils, changes in industrial processes, and more. Accurately projecting the extent and effect of aerosols is one of the major challenges in modeling the future of climate change. Amplifiers: Clouds 12345678910111213 Like aerosols, clouds can either warm or cool the Earth, depending on their density and altitude. Their behavior demonstrates the intricate interactions at work within the climate system. Very small differences in clouds may produce large feedbacks. An increase in high, thin clouds produced by greenhouse warming would further increase the warming. This is because high, thin clouds are relatively effective in trapping infrared radiation (heat) while allowing the Suns energy to pass through. In contrast, an increase in thick, low clouds could lessen the warming because these clouds reflect sunlight efficiently.

Clouds Can Have Different Effects Although not completely understood, differences in clouds may produce large feedbacks in the climate. High thin clouds, such as cirrus clouds (left), may increase warming by trapping infrared radiation, while thick low-level clouds (right) may cool the Earth by reflecting sunlight. Changes in clouds result from changes in the distribution of water vapor, temperature, and winds. The effects of global warming on these factors are complex and not well understood. In addition, aerosols may also play a role in cloud formation. Tiny aerosol particles can seed clouds by providing the nuclei around which cloud droplets are formed. High concentrations of some aerosol types may affect the character of clouds by causing many tiny droplets to form rather than a few big ones. Clouds with more tiny droplets reflect more solar energy and tend to produce less rainfall. Amplifiers: Water Vapor Today, water vapor produces two-thirds of the worlds greenhouse effect. All of the other gases carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, halocarbons, etc. contribute the other third. The effect of water vapor is so significant that the global average temperature would be below freezing without it. Warm air can contain more moisture than cold air. This is the basis of the water vapor feedback. As the atmospheric temperature rises and the amount of water vapor increases, the greenhouse effect is enhanced, further increasing temperature. The water vapor feedback is critical for producing the glacial/interglacial cycles. Uncertainty in the magnitude of the water vapor feedback is an important source of uncertainty in projecting future climate warming. A Common Source of Confusion Does the water vapor added to the atmosphere by cooling towers and smokestacks contribute to global warming?

These sources are tiny compared to natural evaporation from the land and ocean. However, the water vapor feedback is important in increasing water vapor concentration and the greenhouse effect. Amplifiers: Ice-Reflectivity Feedback 12345678910111213 Ice-free surfaces tend to absorb more solar energy than ice-covered surfaces. Therefore, snow and ice cover have a cooling effect on the Earth. If global warming reduces the global snow and ice cover, the warming will be enhanced because more solar energy will be absorbed. This ice-reflectivity feedback does not operate in polar regions during the winter, when it is always dark or the Sun is very low in the sky.

Ice-covered surfaces reflect more solar energy than ice-free surfaces. If global warming reduces global snow and ice cover, the warming will be enhanced because more solar energy will be absorbed.

PAST CHANGE

Natural Climate Changes 123456789101112 Natural causes have been the main contributors to climate changes in the past. It is against this background that humans are beginning to influence the climate. Pre-historic Climate Change Recent Events A Century of Change Regional Climate Change Did Humans Cause Warming? How Is Climate Measured? Measuring Pre-historic Climate Tree Cores Sediment Cores Ice Cores Coral Cores Measuring Modern Climate

[Requires Flash] [Get Flash Plug in] A Century of Change The changes observed over the past several decades are likely mostly due to human activities, but we cannot rule out that some significant part of these changes is also a reflection of natural variability. National Academies, 2001 Go to text only version Pre-historic Climate Change

This graph is based on ice cores drilled in Vostok, Antarctica. It shows temperature changes near the South Pole, which were more extreme than in the middle latitudes.

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This graph is based on ice cores drilled in Vostok, Antarctica. It shows temperature changes near the South Pole, which were more extreme than in the middle latitudes.

As recorded in ice cores from Vostok, Antarctica, the temperature near the South Pole has varied by more than 20 degrees Fahrenheit during the last 350,000 years. There have been peaks of warmth approximately every 100,000 years. The temperature and the carbon dioxide concentrations at the south pole parallel each other. The rise and fall of temperatures gives rise to the ice age/interglacial cycle. Ice Age/Interglacial Cycle During the last Ice Age, approximately one-third of all land was covered by glaciers. Glaciers reached as far south as New York City. This huge volume of ice reduced the amount of water in the oceans, which lowered sea level by several hundred feet. As a result, a land bridge joined Siberia to Alaska, making travel between the two continents possible. El Nio El Nio is associated with the warming surface layer of the eastern Pacific near the equator.

This two to six year cycle has existed for thousands of years. This variation affects the climate, habitats, and economies around the world from year to year. For example, in the eastern equatorial Pacific, cooler, nutrient-rich water needed to support plankton and fish populations does not rise to the surface during El Nio events. The El Nio event of 1972-73 resulted in a collapse of the Peruvian anchovy fishery. El Nio strongly affects the atmospheric circulation, leading to a global pattern of climate variations. For example, in 1997 record-breaking rainfall in Florida was likely caused by El Nio. In contrast, when the eastern Pacific water suddenly cooled in 1998, the Florida rainfall gave way to record-breaking drought. Periodic droughts in some regions create economic benefits elsewhere. Increased demand for Kenyan coffee, for example, has been linked to El Nio-related droughts in Brazil and Indonesia. Younger Dryas Abrupt Climate Change Climate can exhibit abrupt shifts over large regions of the world. As the last glacial period was giving way to the current warm interglacial period, average temperatures in Greenland returned to glacial levels for more than 1,000 years. This unusual period, which is called the Younger Dryas, ended abruptly about 12,000 years ago. Evidence from an ice core drilled in Greenland indicates that temperatures there rose approximately 15F (8C) in less than a decade. Recent Events

Recent Warming Exceeds Temperatures of the Last Several Hundred Years Since the 1900s global average temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration have increased dramatically, particularly compared to their levels in the 900 preceeding years. The rapid rise in both surface temperature and CO2 is one of the indications that humans are

responsible for some of this unusual warmth. This graph is based on data from tree rings, coral and ice cores, and historical records. It represents only the Northern Hemisphere. Other surface temperature data sets differ somewhat from those shown here, but in all of them the modern temperatures are generally greater than during the past several hundred years. Regional Climate Change

The year-to-year variabilitythe spikinessof the record at any one location is generally greater than the global average.

The year-to-year variabilitythe spikinessof the record at any one location is generally greater than the global average.

This graph show the variability in temperature for the Washington, DC area during the twentieth century. A warming trend similar to the global average can be seen.

Are Human Activities the Major Cause of Recent Warming? Probably yes, but comparing climate model projections to actual temperatures shows that both humans and nature have contributed to warming in the 20th century.

A climate model projection that includes both natural processes and human activities closely matches actual measurements of 20th-century temperature changes.

The same climate model without human activity (natural processes only) does not match the strong warming that occurred during the past few decades. Changes in the Sun and volcanic eruptions were relatively important early in the century. But they do not explain the strong warming in recent decades, when the effects of humanproduced greenhouse gases became apparent. What Are Climate Models? They are computer-based tools used to make projections about future climate and interpret the causes of past changes. They take into account many of the factors that were illustrated in an earlier section on causes and feedbacks in the climate system, such as greenhouse gases, ocean circulation, and clouds. Measuring Pre-historic Climate

Pre-historic climate conditions are inferred by analyzing tree rings, sediment layers, ice cores, and corals. Each of these contain annual layers whose characteristics depend in part on the climate conditions that existed during the creation of each layer. These characteristics include chemical composition, color, texture, and thickness. The following sections describe how these characteristics are used to piece together the record of ancient climate variations. Tree Cores Sediment Cores Ice Cores Coral Cores

Pre-historic climate conditions are inferred by analyzing tree rings, sediment layers, ice cores, and corals. Each of these contain annual layers whose characteristics depend in part on the climate conditions that existed during the creation of each layer. These characteristics include chemical composition, color, texture, and thickness. The following sections describe how these characteristics are used to piece together the record of ancient climate variations. Tree Cores Sediment Cores Ice Cores Coral Cores ree Cores

Bristle cone pine trees have been known to live beyond 4,000 years, but trees of many kinds can give clues to climate history. By aligning the rings from trees of different ages, it is possible to create a continuous record that extends beyond the life span of any single tree. Long-term, quantitative temperature and precipitation records can be determined from tree rings by relating recent tree-ring data to corresponding instrumental observations of 1 temperature and precipitation. Bristle cone pine trees have been known to live beyond 4,000 years, but trees of many kinds can give clues to climate history. By aligning the rings from trees of different ages, it is possible to create a continuous record that extends beyond the life span of any single tree. Long-term, quantitative temperature and precipitation records can be determined from tree rings by relating recent tree-ring data to corresponding instrumental observations of temperature and precipitation. Wide spaces between the rings indicate temperature and precipitation conditions that favored rapid growth for that particular species of tree. Tightly spaced rings indicate harsher

conditions that inhibited growth. Other factors, such as fires, disease, and shading can also affect tree-ring widths and complicate interpretation. Radial/cross section from a giant sequoia log (Sequoiadendron giganteum) Long-term, quantitative temperature and precipitation records can be determined from tree rings. Sediment Cores

Sediment deposited on the ocean floor provides useful clues about climate change. The shells of tiny marine animals called forams (foraminifera) may be preserved in sediment. Abundances of shells of warm-loving or cold-loving creatures reveal past temperatures. The chemistry of the shells also records the temperature and provides information about the composition of the water in which they grew.

Sediment deposited on the ocean floor provides useful clues about climate change. The shells of tiny marine animals called forams (foraminifera) may be preserved in sediment. Abundances of shells of warm-loving or cold-loving creatures reveal past temperatures. The chemistry of the shells also records the temperature and provides information about the composition of the water in which they grew. Various types of rock and sand found on the ocean floor also provide clues to global ice coverage, since very large rock fragments could only have been carried into the open ocean by icebergs. Cores taken from fresh-water lakes often contain the remains of leaves, seeds, wood, and pollen. Identifying the various types of vegetation in these cores indicates a great deal about the climatic conditions during the time the plants lived. Sediment Cores from the Castile Formation These cores are approximately 260 million years old. Thicker light-colored layers indicate exceptionally warm summers.

Ice Cores

Cores from ice sheets and mountain glaciers provide especially good records of past climate. The thickness of tree-ring-like annual layers preserved in some cores reveals the history of snowfall.

Cores from ice sheets and mountain glaciers provide especially good records of past climate. The thickness of tree-ring-like annual layers preserved in some cores reveals the history of snowfall. Air bubbles are trapped as snow turns to ice. These bubbles provide the only direct samples of atmospheric composition in the past, before measurements were made and recorded. The ratio of oxygen isotope concentrations is commonly used to infer past temperatures. Concentrations of wind-blown dust, sea salt, pollen, forest fire smoke, and volcanic ash reveal conditions upwind. Information about variations in the Suns intensity and the composition of space dust can even be obtained from micrometeorites and isotopes in the ice. Ice Cores The thickness of the layers can reveal the history of snowfall. Air bubbles trapped in the ice bubbles provide the only direct samples of atmospheric composition in the past before measurements were made. (Photo courtesy of National Science Foundation and United States Geological Survey) Coral Cores

Corals growing near the ocean surface provide year-by-year records of tropical climates extending back over the past few centuries. As with trees, the living tissue is found only on the uppermost layer and it leaves annual growth bands. The relative thickness of the bands depends on ocean temperature and salinity. Warmer water leads to rapid growth and wide, porous layers; cooler water leaves denser layers. However, when the water becomes too warm, the coral can die (coral bleaching) or the growth can be greatly diminished. Chemical ratios within the coral can also be used to estimate past climate because ocean temperature affects a corals chemistry.

Corals growing near the ocean surface provide year-by-year records of tropical climates extending back over the past few centuries. As with trees, the living tissue is found only on the uppermost layer and it leaves annual growth bands. The relative thickness of the bands depends on ocean temperature and salinity. Warmer water leads to rapid growth and wide, porous layers; cooler water leaves denser layers. However, when the water becomes too warm, the coral can die (coral bleaching) or the growth can be greatly diminished. Chemical ratios within the coral can also be used to estimate past climate because ocean temperature affects a corals chemistry. Coral Cores Corals growing near the ocean surface provide year-by-year records of tropical climates extending back over the past few centuries. As with trees, the living tissue is found only on the uppermost layer and it leaves annual growth bands. Measuring Modern Climate

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Records of direct climate observations using instruments extend back more than 200 years. These observations are generally more precise and globally extensive than records inferred from tree-, sediment-, ice- and coral cores. Sufficient data from thermometer measurements are available to document the evolving patterns of surface temperature during the past century.

Records of direct climate observations using instruments extend back more than 200 years. These observations are generally more precise and globally extensive than records inferred from tree-, sediment-, ice- and coral cores. Sufficient data from thermometer measurements are available to document the evolving patterns of surface temperature during the past century. A network of upper-air observatories was established during and after World War II. It provides daily upper-air temperature, wind, and humidity measurements from balloon-borne sensors. The late 1970s marked the advent of climate monitoring from satellite-borne instruments, which provide global coverage. Ocean observations have been more limited. Ocean surface temperature is commonly measured in ships' water intake valves. Subsurface observations are made by sensors freely suspended in the water, dropped from the surface, or tethered to the bottom. Systematic CO2 Monitoring Systematic measurements of atmospheric CO2 date back to 1957, when the first long-term monitoring station was established at an observatory near the top of Mauna Loa, the highest mountain on the island of Hawaii. The initial plan was to make measurements at closely spaced intervals over an extended period of time in order to determine whether CO 2 concentrations were rising. An upward trend soon became apparent. This trend, which continues today, is superimposed on a strong seasonal cycle caused by the uptake of CO 2 by plants during the Northern Hemisphere growing season. The CO 2 monitoring network has expanded to over 100 stations, and now also monitors concentrations of other greenhouses gases, such as methane.

PREDICTED CHANGE

Projected Climate Change

Projected Climate Change

The main tool for making projections about future climate change are computer-based climate models. They take into account many of the factors that were illustrated previously about causes and feedbacks in the climate system, such as greenhouse gases, ocean circulation, and clouds.

The main tool for making projections about future climate change are computer-based climate models. They take into account many of the factors that were illustrated previously about causes and feedbacks in the climate system, such as greenhouse gases, ocean circulation, and clouds. Learn more about climate models in the following sections. A Changing But Uncertain Future What Do the Climate Models Indicate? Do All Projections Agree? [Requires Flash] [Get Flash Plug in] A Changing But Uncertain Future Two different state-of-the-art

models project 21st Century climate change. Go to text only version

What

Do The Climate Models Indicate?

What Do The Climate Models Indicate?

Two of the nations most sophisticated climate models, running on some of the worlds most powerful computers, give similar results.

Two of the nations most sophisticated climate models, running on some of the worlds most powerful computers, give similar results.
Globally averaged temperature

projections from two state-ofthe-art climate models driven by the same scenario of the future CO2 concentrations give similar results. (GDFL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model; NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Reserach model) Globally averaged temperature projections from two state-ofthe-art climate models driven by

t h e s a m e s c e n a r i o o f t h e f u t u r e C O
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c o n c e n t r a t i o n

D y n a m i c s L a b o r a t o r y m o d e l ; N C A R N a t i o n a l C e n t e

 Both

show that warming will increase in the next century as greenhouse gas levels rise.

Both show that warming will increase in the next century as greenhouse gas levels rise. Both show that warming will be greatest in the northern regions close to the pole. Both show that warming will tend to be greater over land than over the ocean. Do All Projections Agree?

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Although the various climate models agree in most important respects, they do show differences. Why?

Although the various climate models agree in most important respects, they do show differences. Why? 1. Natural Variability It is difficult or even impossible to predict variations in natural causes, such as the Sun or volcanoes. And it is difficult to predict the complex interactions of other natural factors, such as the oceans, atmosphere, and ecosystems. 2. Human Choices Future CO2 emissions will depend on future population growth, technology developments, and global policy choices. This is not a factor in the two models shown previously because both were driven by the same scenario. 3. Scientific Uncertainty Climate models are not perfect reflections of the natural climate system. For example, a major source of the differences between the NCAR and GFDL climate projections shown here is the way each simulates the behavior of clouds. Global Impacts

Global warming affects many different facets of life on Earth. There will be winners and

losers, even within a single region. But globally the losses are expected to far outweigh the benefits.

Global warming affects many different facets of life on Earth. There will be winners and losers, even within a single region. But globally the losses are expected to far outweigh the benefits. The regions that will be most severely affected are often the regions that emit the least greenhouse gases. This is one of the challenges that policy-makers face in finding fair international responses to the problem. Explore some of the possible impacts of global climate change, including an in-depth look at sea level rise, in the following sections: Sea Level Rise Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Humans Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Nature Flooding in Eastern Maryland Water Resources Traditional Cultures Health and Disease Agriculture Ecosystems Sea Level Rise

Water expands as it warms. Therefore, sea level will rise as the top few hundred meters of the oceans warm and swell. Meltwater from polar and mountain glaciers is another potential source of sea level rise.

Water expands as it warms. Therefore, sea level will rise as the top few hundred meters of the oceans warm and swell. Meltwater from polar and mountain glaciers is another potential source of sea level rise. The oceans, which cover 71% of the Earths surface, warm slowly in response to greenhouse warming because it takes a long time to heat their great mass. But measurements indicate that the oceans are warming, and projections suggest that the warming will continue for many centuries. Sea level is currently rising at a rate of 1/10 inch per year. Due to the CO 2 already in the atmosphere, sea level is projected to continue rising for several centuries. Projections for the year 2100 show great uncertainty, ranging from several inches to nearly three feet. The impacts of rising sea level include loss of coastal ecosystems, flooding of cities, displacement of coastal inhabitants, and increased vulnerability to storm surges. And the effects would be magnified if the frequency of severe storms increases, as some climate models project. Wealthy countries, such as the United States, will be much better able to adapt to sea level rise than developing nations that lack the resources to build new coastal protections and infrastructure. Impacts Of Sea Level Rise On Humans

The impacts of global warming will be felt across the globe. These are a few of the many examples of the impacts of sea level rise on humans.

The impacts of global warming will be felt across the globe. These are a few of the many examples of the impacts of sea level rise on humans. Flooding Bangladesh One of the poorest nations in the world is projected to lose 17.5% of its land if sea level rises about 40 inches (1 m). Tens of thousands of people are likely to be displaced, and the

countrys agricultural system will be adversely affected. Coastal flooding will threaten animals, plants, and fresh water supplies. The current danger posed by storm surges when cyclones hit Bangladesh is likely to increase. Disappearing Islands The Majuro Atoll in the Pacific Marshall Islands is projected to lose 80% of its land with a 20-inch (0.5m) rise in sea level. Many of the islands will simply disappear under the rising seas. A similar fate awaits other islands throughout the South Pacific and Indian Oceans, including many in the Maldives and French Polynesia. Coral reefs, which protect many of these islands, will be submerged, subjecting the local peoples to heightened storm surges and disrupted coastal ecosystems. Tourism and local agriculture will be severely challenged.

2 0 i n c h e s t h e n 8 0 % o f t h e M a j u r o A t o l w i l l b e u n

r t m e n t o f C o m m e r c e )
Urban

Flooding

Thirteen of the worlds fifteen largest cities are on coastal plains. Many smaller cities, such as Alexandria, Egypts ancient center of learning, also face a severe risk of inundation with a 39inch (1m) rise in sea level. Parts of San Jose and Long Beach, California, are about three feet below sea level and New Orleans is about eight feet below sea level today. Cities at risk cover a wide range of economic circumstances, yet many will require extensive infrastructure development to minimize the potential impacts of flooding, particularly from storm surge.

Urban Flooding Thirteen of the worlds fifteen largest cities are on coastal plains. Many smaller cities, such as Alexandria, Egypts ancient center of learning, also face a severe risk of inundation with a 39inch (1m) rise in sea level. Parts of San Jose and Long Beach, California, are about three feet below sea level and New Orleans is about eight feet below sea level today. Cities at risk cover a wide range of economic circumstances, yet many will require extensive infrastructure development to minimize the potential impacts of flooding, particularly from storm surge. Adapting to Rising Seas Rising sea level requires many different local responses. Urban areas on the U.S. coastline could be surrounded by rising sea water. Cities may require extensive infrastructure development to assure fresh water supplies, secure transportation, and protect people from flooding and storm surge. Sea walls can be built to protect cities and roads from rising seas. More robust building construction may also be required to withstand the increasingly intense storms that are likely to result from global warming. Fresh water supply is a concern as sea water penetrates ground water aquifers, which become brackish and less usable further inland.

Regional Challenges The United States could lose 10,000 square miles of dry land if sea level rises two feet (0.6m). But the impacts of rising sea level vary from one region to another. These maps identify areas along the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic Coasts that are vulnerable to a 510 feet (1.53m) rise in sea level. The U.S. Pacific Coast is far less vulnerable to coastal flooding because the land rises more abruptly from the sea. Ecological Tradeoffs Building sea walls is an effective way to protect roads and cities from rising sea level. Sea walls literally prevent sea water from encroaching inland and provide a buffer against storm surges. Unfortunately, sea walls disrupt coastal ecosystems. The abrupt transition between sea water and concrete eliminates the beaches and tidal areas that support life along the coasts. This may be particularly problematic in barrier island ecosystems, such as along the southeastern coast of the United States. Impacts Of Sea Level Rise On Nature

The impacts of global warming will be felt across the globe. These are a few of the many examples of the impacts of sea level rise on nature.

The impacts of global warming will be felt across the globe. These are a few of the many examples of the impacts of sea level rise on nature. Disappearing Wetlands Coastal wetlands are especially vulnerable because they are within a few feet of sea level. In the United States, a sea level rise of one foot (0.3m) could eliminate 1743% of todays wetlands, with more than half the loss in Louisiana. As sea level rises, new wetlands will form

further inland, but the total area will probably be reduced. In developed areas, dikes and other structures will prevent new wetlands from forming. Coral Bleaching Corals weakened by a variety of stresses are susceptible to bleaching. This occurs when the microscopic algae that give corals their brilliant color die. In 1997 and 1998, a large El Nio event contributed to bleaching in tropical corals around the world. Over the next century, warming of the oceans, in combination with other stressors such as sea level rise and water pollution, could lead to an increase in bleaching events.

d m i n i s t r a t i o n / D e p a r t m e n t o f C o m m e r c e )
Coastal

Erosion

Over the past century, approximately 70% of the worlds shorelines have been retreating due to sea level rise and increased erosion. Over the next century, increased erosion is likely as sea level rises. Erosion will increase along different types of unprotected shoreline, including the low-lying barrier dunes of the southern U.S. Atlantic Coast and the soft cliff coasts of California.

Coastal Erosion Over the past century, approximately 70% of the worlds shorelines have been retreating due

to sea level rise and increased erosion. Over the next century, increased erosion is likely as sea level rises. Erosion will increase along different types of unprotected shoreline, including the low-lying barrier dunes of the southern U.S. Atlantic Coast and the soft cliff coasts of California. Flooding In Eastern Maryland

Climate models project rising sea level during the 21st century due to greenhouse warming. Sea level is not expected to rise as much as shown here by the year 2100, but it will likely be rising for centuries to come, especially as polar ice melts. Much of eastern Maryland is lowlying, leaving vast areas vulnerable to flooding.

Climate models project rising sea level during the 21st century due to greenhouse warming. Sea level is not expected to rise as much as shown here by the year 2100, but it will likely be rising for centuries to come, especially as polar ice melts. Much of eastern Maryland is lowlying, leaving vast areas vulnerable to flooding. Flooding in Eastern Maryland If sea level rises, then coastal land may be flooded. As seen in this map of the Eastern Maryland, low-lying areas less than 1.5 meters above sea level are shown in red. This is the land most vulnerable to flooding. Land between 1.5 and 3.5 meters above sea level is shown in blue and land above 3.5 meters in green. (Image adapted from the Environmental Protection Agency)

Natural

processes might reduce the impact in some areas. If sea level rises slowly enough, plants that grow upward to remain above the water level might amass large root systems that trap enough sand and soil to prevent wholesale flooding of low-lying areas. However, these natural responses in regions such as eastern Maryland are not assured.

Natural processes might reduce the impact in some areas. If sea level rises slowly enough, plants that grow upward to remain above the water level might amass large root systems that trap enough sand and soil to prevent wholesale flooding of low-lying areas. However, these natural responses in regions such as eastern Maryland are not assured. Water Resources

The impacts of global warming will be felt across the globe. These are a few of the many examples of the impacts of climate change on water reources.

The impacts of global warming will be felt across the globe. These are a few of the many examples of the impacts of climate change on water reources. Water Resources The 1930s Dust Bowl was a relatively minor drought by prehistoric standards, yet tens of thousands of people were displaced. Today, farms and cities in the western United States could face a similar water shortage. This region relies heavily on the Colorado River for fresh water. The river, which is fed by the mountain snows, is overtaxed during dryer periods. Decreasing snow pack in the high mountains threatens to create severe water shortages throughout the southwestern U.S., and reduce the ability to generate hydroelectric power during the warmer summers.

The Dust Bowl A farmhouse is saved from drifting dirt by a wooden fence. In the mid-1930s the Dust Bowl displaced thousands of people in the American Great Plains. (Photo courtesy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Department of Commerce)
Disappearing

Glaciers

Glaciers are complex, and a short-lived advance or retreat of one or a few glaciers could have many causes. But almost all of the mountain glaciers on Earth have shrunk over the last century. The temperature increase needed to explain the rate of glacier disappearance agrees with warming estimated from thermometers.

Disappearing Glaciers Glaciers are complex, and a short-lived advance or retreat of one or a few glaciers could have many causes. But almost all of the mountain glaciers on Earth have shrunk over the last century. The temperature increase needed to explain the rate of glacier disappearance agrees with warming estimated from thermometers. Will Melting Ice Trigger an Ice Age? Not likely. But, remember the Younger Dryas? Melting polar ice may have poured fresh water into the North Atlantic and interrupted the deep ocean circulation pattern, which may have sent the Northern Hemisphere into a 1,000-year cold period. Today, fresh water flow into the Arctic Ocean from Siberias four great rivers has increased, and oceanographers observe a slight decrease in the salinity of the North Atlantic. Although climate models do not project that these trends will lead to anything like an ice age, some indicate that over the next few hundred years deep ocean currents may be disrupted, which would affect regional temperature and precipitation patterns over North America and Europe. Traditional Cultures

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The impacts of global warming will be felt across the globe. These are a few of the many examples of the impacts of climate change on traditional cultures.

The impacts of global warming will be felt across the globe. These are a few of the many examples of the impacts of climate change on traditional cultures. Disappearing Ice Packs Wildlife in the arctic regions will be seriously affected as warmer temperatures affect the ocean ice cover. Polar bears rely on sea ice to hunt seals, which use the ice for rearing their young. The native peoples also rely on the ice to hunt these species and walruses. Observations of walrus in 1996-99 showed them to be thin and in poor condition, partly due to receding sea ice.

Livestock

Farming

Over the past several thousand years, traditional livestock farmers in Africa have developed a variety of ways to cope with large climate variations. These coping mechanisms include keeping diverse species of livestock, moving temporarily to more lush grasslands, maintaining economic diversity, and distributing drought-induced hunger across the stronger members of the community. Coping with climate changes over the next century will be increasingly difficult as human populations increase and available grazing land decreases.

Livestock Farming Over the past several thousand years, traditional livestock farmers in Africa have developed a variety of ways to cope with large climate variations. These coping mechanisms include keeping diverse species of livestock, moving temporarily to more lush grasslands, maintaining economic diversity, and distributing drought-induced hunger across the stronger members of the community. Coping with climate changes over the next century will be increasingly difficult as human populations increase and available grazing land decreases. Limited Resources Many indigenous peoples live in harsh climatic environments to which they have adapted. However, when climate changes occur rapidly, populations with limited resources can be the first to suffer from famine and disease. Adaptation techniques include altering crop mixes and water infrastructure to deal with drought, and improving public healthcare systems to reduce the harm caused by climate-related disease outbreaks. Health And Disease

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The impacts of global warming will be felt across the globe. These are a few of the many examples of the impacts of climate changes on health and disease.

The impacts of global warming will be felt across the globe. These are a few of the many examples of the impacts of climate changes on health and disease. Infectious Diseases Cold winter weather reduces the spread of infectious diseases by killing infectious organisms and carrier species, such as mosquitoes. Warmer, wetter weather could increase the spread of malaria, dengue fever, and yellow fever. The possible increase in flooding and damage to water and sewage infrastructure can further encourage the spread of disease. Increased Air Pollution Three out of four of the worlds highest-density cities are in rapidly developing countries, where vehicle pollution is high. In Central Europe alone, 21,000 deaths are tied to air pollution each year. The concentration of photochemical pollutants, such as ozone, tends to increase with warmer temperatures. Ozone damages lung tissue and is especially harmful to people with asthma and other lung conditions. Increased Air Pollution Air pollution in high-density cities can be a health hazard to individuals with asthma. Photochemical pollutants tend to increase with warmer temperatures.
Hotter

Summers & Warmer Winters

A 1995 heat wave killed more than 500 people in the Chicago area, and heat intensity is likely to rise in the future. Statistical studies estimate that a temperature rise of 2F could double or triple the number of heat-related deaths in Atlanta, in part because the heat index will increase exponentially as temperature rises. But warmer weather may save lives in the winter by reducing hypothermia and driving-related fatalities.

Hotter Summers & Warmer Winters A 1995 heat wave killed more than 500 people in the Chicago area, and heat intensity is likely

to rise in the future. Statistical studies estimate that a temperature rise of 2F could double or triple the number of heat-related deaths in Atlanta, in part because the heat index will increase exponentially as temperature rises. But warmer weather may save lives in the winter by reducing hypothermia and driving-related fatalities. Agriculture

The impacts of global warming will be felt across the globe. These are a few of the many examples of the impacts of climate change on agriculture.

The impacts of global warming will be felt across the globe. These are a few of the many examples of the impacts of climate change on agriculture. American Crops Agriculture in the United States is relatively well positioned to adapt to climate change, due in part to the advanced technologies available to U.S. farmers. The overall system is regionally diverse and has already adapted to a wide range of growing conditions. On the whole, U.S. crop production could increase, unless warming becomes great or the frequency of extreme weather increases.

r o d u c t i o n m a y i n c r e a s e u n l e s s t h e w a r m i n g i s t o o

great or extreme weather becomes more common. Agriculture in less-developed countries may experience more negative effects.
Isolated

Arid Regions

Peoples most at risk of famine live in agriculturally isolated, arid or semi-arid regions, such as sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. African agriculture was already unable to keep pace with population growth during the last decades of the 20th century. And climate models generally predict that mid-continental summer soil moisture will tend to be lower with greenhouse warming.

Isolated Arid Regions Peoples most at risk of famine live in agriculturally isolated, arid or semi-arid regions, such as sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. African agriculture was already unable to keep pace with population growth during the last decades of the 20th century. And climate models generally predict that mid-continental summer soil moisture will tend to be lower with greenhouse warming. CO2 Fertilization Because plants require CO 2, rising levels may actually help plant growth. However, the increased plant growth requires adequate water supply and other fertilization, such as nitrates. Experiments in which crops are grown in CO 2-rich air show that the CO2 fertilization effect could become small after a few years. Ecosytems

The impacts of global warming will be felt across the globe. These are a few of the many examples of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems.

The impacts of global warming will be felt across the globe. These are a few of the many examples of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems. American Ecosystems Earlier spring A study observing 36 species in the central U.S. documented advances in flowering dates by an average of 7.3 days from 1936 to 1998. Northward Shift A study projecting responses to a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 found that tree habitats in the eastern U.S. may migrate northward more than 50 miles on average. However, the ability of trees to shift might be limited in regions where forests are only found in isolated patches. Shifting Penguin Populations Adlie penguin populations decreased 22% during the last 25 years, while Chinstrap penguins increased by 400%. The two species depend on different habitats for survival: Adlies inhabit the winter ice pack, whereas Chinstraps remain in close association with open water. A 7 9F rise in midwinter temperatures on the western Antarctic Peninsula during the past 50 years, and associated receding sea-ice pack, is reflected in their changing populations. Shifting penguin populations The Chinstrap penguin (left) has increased in population by 400% in the last 25 years, as compared to the Adlie penguins (right), which have become less populous. (Photos courtesy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Department of Commerce)
Tiger

Losses

It is estimated that only about 3,000 4,500 Bengal tigers remain in the wild. The number in Bangladesh is projected to decrease as a result of rising sea levels. For tigers and the many other species that inhabit the forested wetlands of Bangladesh, migration to higher ground probably would be blocked by human habitation of adjacent lands.

Tiger Losses It is estimated that only about 3,000 4,500 Bengal tigers remain in the wild. The number in Bangladesh is projected to decrease as a result of rising sea levels. For tigers and the many other species that inhabit the forested wetlands of Bangladesh, migration to higher ground probably would be blocked by human habitation of adjacent lands.

American CO2 Emissions Calculator - Text Only Version

What Can Be Done to Mitigate CO2 Emissions? Use This Calculator to See What Works Best. In this activity you can select personal and national actions you could take to reduce CO 2 emissions. You'll be able to see the effect of each choice you take on total emissions in the United States. On this screen you can choose personal and national options for reducing CO 2 emissions On the left is a list of personal lifestyle options you could take. Check the boxes next to each option to select your choices. For purposes of this activity, it is assumed that all Americans will adopt your choices. On the right is a list of options that could be taken on the national level. In the activity a bar graph reflects the effect of your choices. These percentages assume all Americans adopt your choices. LIFESTYLE OPTIONS Increase household vehicle efficiency by 10 miles per gallon reduces CO 2 emissions by 5.45%. Drive 100 fewer miles per week reduces CO 2 emissions by 4.11% Fly 3000 fewer miles per year reduces CO 2 emissions by 1.03% Turn thermostat down by 2 degrees in the winter reduces CO 2 emissions by 0.62% Replace 10 incandescent light bulbs with compact fluorescents reduces CO 2 emissions by 1.06% Plant 10 trees a year reduces CO 2 emissions by 0.18% NATIONAL OPTIONS Improve airplane fuel efficiency by 20% reduces CO 2 emissions by 0.77% Improve commercial transportation efficiency by 20% reduces CO 2 emissions by 1.80% Increase the use of biomass, hydroelectric, geothermal, wind and solar energy sources to 25% of total U.S. production reduces CO 2 emissions by 19.00%

Increase industrial energy efficiency by 10% reduces CO 2 emissions by 2.85% Improve commercial building efficiency by 25% reduces CO 2 emissions by 4.35% Collect 60% of the gas emitted from landfills and use it to generate electricity reduces CO 2 emissions by 1.75% THESE ARE ONLY A FEW OF MANY POSSIBILITIES Consider The Alternatives - Text Only Version

Responses to Climate Change Have Consequences. What Are Your Priorities? The knowledge that scientific research provides us about the environment can be used to help shape public policy. Consider The Alternatives Responding to the changing climate involves trade-offs of many kinds. Some choices will be difficult, yet they will be in the headlines and public policy debates for decades to come. Consider responses to some hypothetical but plausible scenarios that many communities are likely to confront. Your choices will be recorded as part of a research study being conducted at Pennsylvania State University. Data Screen In the activity the user is asked to submit their age group, gender, and zip code. This activity involves three scenarios: Reducing CO 2 Levels; Saving Habitat or Homes; and Rising Sea Level. Reducing CO2 Levels The increasing concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere appears to be the most important cause of the recent warming. There are many possible ways to slow the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide. One option is to plant trees, but it takes many trees to reduce carbon dioxide levels significantly. Another alternative is to increase energy efficiency standards for buildings, which might require costly investment in new equipment. What trade-offs would you make to influence CO 2 levels in these two ways?

The user is asked what financial cost per month they would be willing to undertake to influence CO2 levels in these two ways. Saving Habitat or Homes Wetlands provide important habitat and breeding ground for birds, fish and many other wild species. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency reports that the nation lost 58,000 acres of wetland habitat per year during the mid-1980s and 90s. Most losses were due to commercial and agricultural development. Climate changes might cause further loss of wetlands, threatening wildlife that cannot adapt or relocate successfully. Climate changes might also increase flooding in some areas where people live or work. One response is to invest in programs to protect threatened wetlands. Another response is to limit construction in flood-prone areas or require elevated structures that could reduce storm damage. Beyond a certain point, however, some habitats will be affected and some structures will be damaged no matter how much money is spent to protect them. Given the uncertainties, what trade-offs would you make to protect wetlands or to safeguard communities from storm damage? The user is asked what financial cost per month they would be willing to undertake to protect wetlands or to safeguard communities from storm damage Rising Sea Level Nearly half of the American population lives near the coasts. Many homes and businesses are located within coastal flood plains. Although the impacts of global warming are uncertain, the sea level is likely to rise. As it rises, some coastal areas will experience increased storm damage to roads and buildings and erosion of beaches. Many urban areas can be protected by investing in sea walls and reinforced structures, although such measures often sacrifice beaches and wetlands. In some areas where fresh water aquifers are near the coast, rising sea level might affect the taste of drinking water by making it slightly saltier. In areas where this might happen in the United States, it is often possible to protect drinking water from rising sea level, although maintaining good-tasting water may come at a higher cost. What trade-offs would you make to protect coastal areas and the good taste of drinking water there? The user is asked what financial cost per month they would be willing to undertake to protect the coastal areas and the good taste of drinking water.