Better Buckets

Introducing the Sequent Income Model

By Joe Elsasser, CFP with Dan Trumblee

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Table of Contents
Executive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
NOTE: Click on any of the chapters to jump directly to that section.

Why Talk About Buckets Now?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 A Typical Bucket Plan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Good Concept, Flawed Execution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Introducing the Sequent Income Model.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Why Buckets are Better with the Sequent Income Model. . . . . 10 13

Using the Sequent Income Software. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . About the Authors.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 21

SEQUENT
Sequent [adj.] - Characterized by continuous succession

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Executive Summary
There is a shift underway in the financial planning industry. As the Baby Boomers approach retirement age, efficient weath distribution is replacing aggressive wealth accumulation as the primary focus among fincancial advisors and their clients. Driving this shift are two main factors: 1) 76 million Baby Boomers reaching retirement age in the next 10 years; 2) The millions of retirees who suffered catastrophic losses during the recession. Both of these groups are looking for guidance and, above all, protection for their nest eggs. Is your practice prepared to meet the resulting spike in demand for Retirement Income Planning services? Wealth distribution is, without question, more complex than wealth accumulation. Once a retiree turns on the income stream they are immediately exposed to multiple new layers of risk. It is no longer enough just to say youre going to earn x% on your portfolio and withdraw y% for income. Retirees need an advisor who can help them insure against these additional layers of behavioral risk, sequence risk, longevity, taxes, inflation, the list goes on.

One Solution: Buckets

The spectrum of services that have sprung up to meet these wealth distribution needs can be called Retirement Income Planning. One well-known strategy involves providing a steady income stream for your clients by separating their assets into distinct Buckets. If youve ever been to a tree farm and noticed how the growth of the trees is staggeredsome of the trees are ready to harvest now, while the rest are given time to grow to maturitythen you understand the concept behind buckets. Money allocated in one bucket (or buckets) is set aside for immediate and near-term income. The remaining assets are placed in a separate bucket and allowed to grow untouched in a stock or fund portfolio for a predetermined number of years. Separating assets in this way allows an advisor to accomplish different goals with different dollars and diversify risk in a way that protects the clients near-term income, while giving market a chance to do its work over the long term. That said, the old bucket models have some inherent weaknesses in their design and execution: Low Internal Rate of Return Increasingly Aggressive Over Time Back To Top

No smoothing of withdrawals Some Market Timing Required

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A New Solution: The Sequent Income Model

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In response to the flaws inherent in most bucket models, we have developed a new method of allocating assets for income called the Sequent Income Model. Sequent Income utilizes a unique method of asset allocation that allows you to build an income plan that does more than just take advantage of the best case scenario; it performs well in all possible scenarios, allowing your clients to capitalize on the ups as well as weather the downs. Sequent Income uses a combination of insurance products and equities to manage and insure against a variety of retirement risks and build a more efficient income engine for your clients. And its simple. The Sequent Income Software runs all the calculations for you so you can determine in minutes how to allocate your clients assets. How does this differ from other bucket plans? It offers solutions to the problems we outlined above (details on page 13): Simplicity and Utility Avoids Market Timing Regular Rebalancing Increased Rate of Return on Income Stream Maximizes Market Potential Smoothed Monthly Income

In subsequent sections of this paper we will break down the mechanics of Sequent Income, and introduce a case study showing the concept and software in action to illustrate how and why this is a Better way to Bucket. Sequent Income Avoids Market Timing Regular Rebalancing Increased Rate of Return Maximizes Market Potential Smoothed Monthly Income Simplicity and Utility Other Plans

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Why Talk About Buckets Now?

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The number of investors looking for the type of protection that Sequent Income offers has grown dramatically since the recession and continues to grow. This is due to two movements currently underway in the personal finance industry: 1. The much talked about shift in focus from wealth accumulation to wealth distribution. As previously mentioned, transforming a retirement portfolio into a stable income stream requires specialized planning. The old rules you lived by during the accumulation phase no longer apply. Bucketing has great appeal as a distribution strategy because it offers an organized, systematic process for getting your clients retirement savings from a 401k, IRA, stock portfolio, etc. to his wallet in a way that minimizes taxes and protects against market volatility while leveraging the market as a hedge against inflation. 2. Shift in investor attitudes toward risk. If you think about how the most popular income strategies might be arranged on a spectrum of risk, Sequent Income targets those consumers who are comfortable somewhere in the middle. Or, even better, someone who started closer to the more aggressive side, but has since moved closer to the middle after sustaining losses in the market. These are the ideal candidates for a bucket plan because they believe in the long-term upside potential of the market, but at the same time they recognize the threat that volatility poses to short-term income. They realize that ups and downs in the market cannot be timed and therefore want to shield their income from that risk. It is our position that the number of investors who fit this risk profile has increased since the recession set in last year.

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Figure 1: Spectrum of Retirement Income Strategies

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Conservative
Low Risk, Low Returns

Moderate

Aggressive
High Risk, High Returns

Interest-only strategies CD Ladders

Indexed Annuities Variable Annuities

(lifetime income rider)

Systematic withdrawal plan

Over the course of the 20-year bull market from 1980 to 1999, a lot of investors and advisors gravitated toward the more aggressive end of the spectrum in Figure 1. Their systematic withdrawal plans promised high returns when times were good, but offered no protection when the market went bad. Two recessions this decade taught a lot of retirees this lesson the hard way. The result has been an ongoing exodus from the more aggressive side of the spectrum to the relative safety of the middle. One indicator of this shift in investor attitudes has been fixed annuity sales, which have soared since the recession hit last year. LIMRA reported a 79 percent increase to close 2008 and a 74 percent jump in the first quarter of 2009. Why are consumers gravitating toward annuities? We suspect it is not necessarily for the longevity protection (i.e. lifetime income) they provide as much as for the stability of income. Buckets are a fantastic solution for this because they suppress volatility and remove risk as the money gets closer to the clients wallet (See Figure 2).

Figure 2: Risk Funnel

Volatity decreases the closer money gets to the clients wallet. Income
Guaranteed Rate Fixed w/Upside Market

Bucket 1

Bucket 2

Bucket 3

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A Typical Bucket Plan

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Before you can understand why Sequent Income makes buckets better, it helps to get a sense of how a typical bucket plan might work now. One popular bucket method divides assets into three distinct allocationsBucket 1 generates income; Bucket 2 will generate income after Bucket 1 is depleted; and Bucket 3 is for long-term growth. Bucket 1: This is safe money set aside for immediate income, usually for the next 3-7 years. Typical products used in Bucket 1 are CD Ladders or single-premium immediate annuities (SPIAs). Bucket 2: This is money waiting to be tapped for income when Bucket 1 runs out. Typical products for this allocation include deferred annuities, bond funds or a bond portfolio. Bucket 3: This is your long-term growth allocation, usually placed in an equity portfolio. Bucket 3 is tapped to replenish Buckets 1 and 2 when they run out after 10-14 years.

Figure 3: The Traditional Bucket Model

Bucket 1
Immediate Income 3-7 years

Bucket 2
Income when Bucket 1 runs out Bond Funds Bond Portfolio

Bucket 3
Long-Term Growth Refills Buckets 1 & 2 Equity portfolio

Income

Laddered CDs, SPIA

Now lets look at a hypothetical example of a bucket plan assuming $500,000 in investable funds $25,000 a year in income Bucket 2 earning 5% compounded annually Bucket 3 earning 8% compounded annually

Figure 4 will show how the assets are allocated in a typical bucket plan, as well has how the buckets are depleted and refilled over time. Back To Top

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Figure 4: Buckets in Action
Year 1
Bucket 1 $145,000 SPIA Income Bucket 2 $125,000 Bond Fund Bucket 3 $230,000 Equities

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The client buys a SPIA with the funds in Bucket 1. This provides income for the first six years. The assumption is that Buckets 2 and 3 will be accumulating during this time. End of Year 6
Bucket 1 $0 Income Bucket 2 $167,500 Bond Fund Bucket 3 $364,981 Equities

After 6 years Bucket 1 has been spent down to $0. Now the client takes the funds in bucket two, which, assuming 5% return would have grown to about $167,500, and uses those funds to purchase an immediate annuity for the next 6 years of income (Refilling Bucket 1). Start of Year 7
Bucket 1 $167,500 SPIA Income Bucket 2 $0 Bucket 3 $364,981 Equities

Now Bucket 1 has been refilled and Bucket 2 is empty. Were assuming the market going up 8% a year, so Bucket 3 has grown to $364,981. End of Year 12
Bucket 1 $0 Income Bucket 2 $0 Bucket 3 $579,179 Equities

Both income buckets are now exhausted. It is now time to tap the equities portfolio, which hopefully has grown significantly over time, to refill them. Then the process starts all over again.

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Good Concept, Flawed Execution
We believe that, while sound conceptually, bucket plans have several flaws in their design and execution.

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Increasingly Aggressive Over Time: The further into the traditional bucket plan an investor gets, the more heavily weighted to stocks the investor becomes. Given the hypothetical scenario above, the initial weighting is relatively conservative, with 46% of the total portfolio allocated to equities. By the time the first two buckets have been spent, 12 years into the plan, the investors allocation would have gone from 46% equities to 100% equities. This investor is subject to far greater risk than his initial allocation would indicate (even though he is now 12 years older). A down market in the final years of Bucket 2 could destroy the plan. Some Market Timing Required: Alternatively, an advisor could opportunistically refill the first two buckets. Opportunistically refilling requires some element of market timing, which, as we all know, can be quite difficult. Low Internal Rate of Return on Income Stream: Typically, Bucket 1 represents a very low internal rate of return. Currently it would be difficult to achieve greater than 2.5% for a 5-year CD ladder or immediate annuity. No smoothing of withdrawals: Many bucket planning systems are unable to provide annual increases. Instead, these systems carry a level withdrawal for the first several years, then jump up to a higher level for the next several years. If you ask your clients whether they would prefer a smooth, planned annual increase or level for a few years, then a big jump, level for a few more, then a big jump, the answer would be pretty clear. Your clients would prefer smoothed withdrawals.

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Introducing the Sequent Income Model

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Sequent Income takes the old idea of Buckets and optimizes it. Hence the title of the paper: Better Buckets. Like the plan in the previous section, Sequent Income divides assets into three distinct allocations (or three buckets if you would like to stick with that terminology, but we prefer not to). 1. Income Allocation: These dollars are used solely to generate income for a six-year period. The model assumes a SPIA, but a similar result could be accomplished by laddering non-callable certificates of deposit. 2. Bridge Allocation: This is the cornerstone of Sequent Income. The Bridge Allocations central feature is that it represents a combination of properties of the Income Allocation and the Growth Allocation. It combines guaranteed principal to prevent losses in a down market, with growth potential when the market trends upward. By ensuring that dollars are never flowing directly from the market to the income allocation, it effectively provides the Bridge between the significant upside potential and associated volatility of market investments and the guarantees associated with the Income Allocation. Withdrawals from the Bridge Allocation also provide a portion of the annual income goal. Then at the end of the initial six-year period, the balance of this allocation will fund a new Income Allocation. The model assumes a fixed indexed annuity for this allocation. (For more on why an FIA is essential see pg. 14) 3. Growth Allocation: Historically, investing in debt and equity instruments has provided an excellent long-term hedge against inflation. The managed growth portion of this income plan will conform to client risk tolerance and investment objectives.

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SEQUENT
Figure 5: The Sequent Income Model
Income Allocation
Immediate Income for six years Period-Certain SPIA

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Growth Allocation
Replenish Bucket 2

Bridge Allocation Income

Supplement Income and Replenish Income Allocation Fixed Indexed Annuity Indexed Annuity

Stock/Fund portfolio

A couple of keys points here: The Income Allocation is completely liquidated over the initial six-year period During the initial six-year period, withdrawals are taken from the Bridge Allocation to supplement the income generated from the Income Allocation, boosting the internal rate of return on the total income received. At the end of the initial 6-year period, in the worst-case scenario, enough remains in the Bridge Allocation to fund the income allocation again. This is extremely important, because it means money is never moving directly from the market to a product that has no market-linked upside potential. Because the allocations are refilled every six years, the client is never completely weighted to stocks.

Now lets look at a hypothetical illustration of Sequent Income using the same assumptions as our previous example with traditional buckets $500,000 in investable funds $25,000 a year in income Bridge Allocation (Bucket 2) earning 5% compounded annually Growth Allocation (Bucket 3) earning 8% compounded annually www.BetterBuckets.com

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SEQUENT
Figure 6: Sequent Income in Action
Year 1 Income Allocation
$94,928 SPIA

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$25,000 Income
$146,457 Fixed Indexed Annuity

Growth Allocation Bridge Allocation

$258,613 Equities

The clients income for the first six years is generated from the combined payout from the Income Allocation (SPIA) and the Bridge Allocation (FIA). The Growth Allocation is left alone to grow. End of Year 6 Income Allocation
$0

$28,987 Income
$136,320 Fixed Indexed Annuity

Growth Allocation Bridge Allocation

$410,387 Equities

At the end of year six, the Income Allocation is at $0 and the Bridge Allocation has been spent down to $136,320. Of that, $113,349 goes to fund the Income Allocation for the next six-year leg. The Growth Allocation has grown to $410,387. Of that, $151,907 is liquidated to refill the Bridge Allocation for the next six year period. Start of Year 7 Income Allocation
$113,349

$29,851 Income
$174,878 Fixed Indexed Annuity

Growth Allocation Bridge Allocation

$258,480 Equities

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SEQUENT
Why Buckets are Better with the Sequent Income Model

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The unique construction of Sequent Income gives it several advantages over more traditional bucket models. Simplicity and Utility Sequent Income allows you to use simple, easy to understand products in Buckets 1 and 2respectively a SPIA and a Fixed Indexed Annuityand achieve similar principle protection and better potential internal rate of return than CD and bond ladders seen in other bucket plans. Avoids Market Timing With other systems there is always confusion on when to refill Buckets 1 and 2 and by how much. Do you try to time the market and refill Buckets 1 and 2 when stocks are up? As much as we as professionals like to believe we are able to use technical and fundamental analysis, along with good risk management principles to make better decisions than other market participants, the fact remains that we have all been blindsided at least once in our careers. This system takes the guesswork out by giving you a structured framework for drawing down and refilling allocations. Regular Rebalancing With Sequent Income, youre never removing funds directly from the market and placing them in a purely fixed product. Thats the beauty of the Bridge Allocation. By using a FIA as the bridge between the market and an immediate annuity, the funds still have some market exposure and therefore a chance to recover some of the lost value if you liquidate stocks when the market is down. Further, since no one can tell you with certainty when a bear market is or will be over until well after the fact, we will have established an insured floor under the amount liquidated from the growth allocation. Increased Rate of Return on Income Stream By using a blend of an immediate and indexed annuity to provide income, Sequent Income can achieve a better internal rate of return for your clients on their safe money without substantially increasing risk. As a hypothetical example (rates current at the time of this writing) we might see an internal rate of return on a six-year period certain SPIA in the 2% range. At the same time, the fixed rates inside many indexed annuities are in the 3.5%-4% range. If 1/3 of our income is generated via withdrawals from the fixed account of the indexed annuity, we could have boosted the internal rate of return on that income stream by up to 33%.

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SEQUENT

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Maximizes Market Potential For the bucket model to work to its full potential and stretch the clients retirement funds for as long as possible, you want to commit the minimum amount possible to the Income Allocation and the Bridge Allocation while still meeting the clients income goals. The more you are able to keep in Bucket 3, the more potential you have for long-term growth. Sequent Income Software that will tell you exactly what the minimum amount is you should allocate to Buckets 1 and 2 to secure the withdrawal on a guaranteed basis for the first six years and have enough left in the bridge to fund the income allocation over again for the following six years. Smoothed Monthly Income The Sequent Income Software also allows you to to step up the clients income payments gradually over time to keep pace with inflation. The software does all the calculations for you; all you have to do is input the assumed inflation rate.

Why an Indexed Annuity for the Bridge Allocation?

The Bridge Allocation is really the key to what makes this system work. By forming the bridge between the equity portfolio and annuitized savings, it increases the clients rate of return, creates a floor against losses, and still affords the client the opportunity to participate in a portion of market gains. Some might find the use of a Fixed Indexed Annuity controversial. While it has been documented that a small percentage of advisors have sold FIAs inappropriately, we would argue the problem lies with a small minority of unscrupulous producers, not with the products themselves. High quality FIAs issued by reputable companies provide strong benefits for those who wish to participate in a portion of market gains but whose risk tolerance makes them uncomfortable with sustaining losses. Taken further, we see in FIAs several unique strengths that no other savings or investment vehicle offers: 1. FIAs offer a portion of the markets upside potential while protecting principle. 2. FIAs provide a level of guarantee against bond defaults that cant be achieved with either individual bonds or bond mutual funds. 3. FIAs offer partial liquidity with some measure of market gains. It is difficult to overestimate the value of this, yet critics of FIAs often ignore the free withdrawal provisions of deferred annuities.

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SEQUENT

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Given all of that, it is difficult to argue that a plain vanilla FIA with a short surrender periodwhich we use in the Bridge Allocationcould not be a valuable part of an overall retirement plan. We welcome your comments on this topic and the opportunity to further make the case for FIAs as a viable tool for retirement income planning.

We also examined some alternatives for the Bridge Allocation:

Variable Annuities: A variable annuity could work well in the bridge allocation. There are four requirements for the VA product to use it in this model. 1. It must have a 6-year surrender schedule (multiple leg lengths will be available in future models) 2. Principal (at least) must be guaranteed in lump sum at the end of the surrender schedule 3. It must offer at least a 10% free partial withdrawal provision 4. Free partial withdrawals must be principal protected, i.e. if the subaccounts are down, the free partial withdrawal must trigger a dollar-for-dollar reduction against the principal guarantee, not as a proportional reduction. Structured Products: Structured products, including structured CDs and Structured Debt instruments held promise, but Lehman Brothers default on its structured products portfolio reminds us that the value of an insurance company in the mix substantially reduces the risk of default that is inherent with any individual security. Further, the lack of a solid secondary market means questionable liquidity and imputed interest means these products are not terribly tax efficient. I am certainly open to the future of structured products as a viable component of the model.

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SEQUENT
Figure 7: The Importance of the Bridge Allocation

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The following illustration highlights the critical importance of the Bridge Allocation in this plan.

Income Allocation Income

Bridge Allocation

Growth Allocation

Potential for Partial Market Gains

Exposed to Market Volatility

Income Allocation Income

Bridge Allocation
Creates a floor against losses

Growth Allocation

If you are forced to liquidate in a down market, repositioning from the growth allocation to the Bridge Allocation does two things: 1. 2. Creates a floor against additional losses if the market declines further Gives those funds the opportunity to at least partially participate in future gains if the market recovers.

Growth Allocation Starting Point (Year 1)

Income Allocation

Potential For Partial Recovery

Growth Allocation

Market is down in year 6

Bridge Allocation
Creates a floor against losses

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SEQUENT
Using the Sequent Income Software

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The reason more advisors arent implementing strategies like this, and the reason similar strategies arent as effective as ours is that its not pencil and paper math. Complex calculations are required to determine the amount of each allocation to optimize the plan. The questions that come into play are: How do you know how much to allocate to each bucket? Rather, the real question is what is the least you can allocate to the Income and Bridge allocations and still achieve the clients desired income, including adjustments for inflation, without violating the free withdrawal provision in the annuity? How do you know when to refill each allocation? And, with Sequent Income, how do you know what blend of withdrawals to take from the Income and Bridge allocations to achieve the desired income stream? The Sequent Income Software makes the answers to these questions easy. This proprietary software will run all the calculations necessary to answer the questions above and build an optimized income plan.

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SEQUENT

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The following screenshots should give you some idea of what the software can offer. If you want to try the software for yourself or ask about using Sequent Income in your own practice, call 1-877-645-4939.

Figure 8: Input Assumptions

It takes just a minute to input your clients assumptions. Figure 8 shows a scenario assuming $1 million in available assets and $50,000 in desired income to start. The calculator also allows you to customize the inflation rate and assumed returns for each allocation.

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SEQUENT
Using only that data, the software will show you exactly:
1. How much to fund each allocation.

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Figure 9: Output for Years 1-6

2. The precise blend of withdrawals you should take from the Income and Bridge allocations to achieve the clients desired annual income.

The beauty of the Sequent IncomeTM Software is its simplicity for the end user. But it is actually built on complex formulas on the back end that allow you to optimize each allocation by: 1. Calculating the minimum amount necessary to fund the Income Allocation and the Bridge Allocation while guaranteeing your clients income needs are met within each period. Remember, the goal is to keep as much as possible in the Growth Allocation. 2. Calculating how much to take from the Bridge Allocation to supplement the income stream. In the above example we initially place $292,915 in a fixed indexed annuity. Without the calculator, how would you know how much to withdraw from that annuity to supplement the income generated by the SPIA and still have your target amount (the cost of the SPIA) left over at the end of six years?

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SEQUENT
Conclusion

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Throughout this white paper, much has been said about how Sequent Income will benefit your clients. So well close by talking briefly about whats in it for you. The Sequent Income Model will help you: Create a continuous cycle of sales and renewals for your practice. The plan you set in motion will need to be updated, rebalanced and revisited over time. This ensures clients for life. Differentiate yourself from competitors. This concept hasnt left Omaha until now. Establish yourself as a retirement income expert and generate more referrals Be a hero the next time the market takes a plunge and your clients assets are well-protected in a plan designed to minimize the effects of volatility. And lets not forget perhaps the most important benefit, which is what this white paper is all about: Protected clients, clients who dont lose 40% of their net worth in a bear market, are happy clients. Theyre clients who will stick with you over the long-term and enthusiastically sing your praises to friends. Ultimately, as a financial advisor, your fate is inextricably linked to that of your clients. If you can help them achieve financial success with a retirement income plan that meets their needs, the benefits for you and your practice extend far beyond commission checks. If you are interested in utilizing Sequent Income in your own practice, the next step is to request a software users agreement by calling 1-877-645-4939. Also feel free to call if you have questions or comments on the concept, software or retirement income planning in general. We welcome your thoughts. If you want to take your comments online and generate some discussion among your peers, feel free to join the Better Buckets Beta Group on LinkedIn, or visit BetterBuckets.com.

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About the Authors

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Joe Elsasser, CFP has been involved in the insurance and financial services industry since 2001 as both a producer and a marketer. Since 2006 he has served as the Associate Director of Annuities for Senior Market Sales, Inc. In late 2008, Joe launched his own financial planning practice to implement many of the concepts he had been developing in his prior role. A Certified Financial Planner, Registered Health Underwriter and licensed Investment Advisor Representative, Joe specializes in helping middle market retirees maximize resources in support of their financial goals. Currently, Joes ongoing responsibilities with Senior Market Sales include preparing strategies developed for his practice to be used by agents and advisors affiliated with Senior Market Sales. Dan Trumblee is an Omaha-based writer who specializes in content for the insurance and financial industry. The articles and white papers he writes for Senior Market Sales cover a broad spectrum of topics, including retirement income planning, insurance marketing strategies, Medicare, life insurance, annuities and long-term care insurance.

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