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GLOBAL
GRAIN & FEED MARKETS
Every issue GFMTs market analyst John Buckley reviews world trading conditions which are impacting the full range of commodities used in food and feed production. His observations will influence your decision-making.
Some analysts have forecast a 5% decline in combined Russian/Ukrainian sunflowerseed sowings with Ukraine alone down 7-10%, after less land was freed up for spring crops by winterkill of autumn-sown grain crops. Ukraine farmers might also have been deterred by a 17% drop in last years yields due to lack of timely rains.
OPES of a major rebound from last seasons disappointing crop performance put wheat prices under further downward pressure for much of the period since our last review and helped restrain frisky corn/soya prices too. On the leading Chicago futures market, the bellwether soft red winter wheat contract fell at one stage to as little as $247 per tonne for near delivery compared with last Julys peak of about $347.50. European soft milling wheat followed suit despite a weak euro and rapidly disappearing supplies from last years smaller than expected crop, at one stage reaching eight month lows of 232/tonne on old-crop months. Traded prices on world export markets also declined, soft milling wheats settling about $20 either side of the $300/tonne level on fob terms. For US soft red winter wheat that was about $60/80 cheaper than last summers peaks. Two factors have driven wheat market weakness. One is the widespread idea that this years global crop might actually come close to the 2011 record 697m tonnes as output recovers in the former Soviet Union and Europe and increases in Canada and Australia. That total may be a bit optimistic, given the poor start to the US hard red winter wheat crop and a number of weather issues in western Europe and Russia. Still, a healthy addition to next seasons wheat supplies is nonetheless backed by bodies including the International Grains Council, the UN Food & Agriculture Organisation and the US Department of Agriculture (whose unofficial forecasts have been among the highest). That said, the view seems to be gaining hold that next seasons world surplus stock of wheat will not increase much as demand increases too. But then, global stocks are hardly small to start with, having run close to the record 200m tonne level for the past three seasons and even in his supposedly tighter year - still expected to finish at a comfortable 178m. This relatively small decline has been due to total wheat consumption falling this season by almost 25m tonnes. Although the US
raised its wheat use by 4m tonnes (to meet feed shortages after its small maize crop) consumption elsewhere fell far more steeply, mainly in the EU, Russia and Ukraine. Their combined decline, mainly in feed use, resulted in world total consumption in this sector dropping by almost 13m tonnes. The other factor weighing on wheat prices has been export competition, which has been sustained for far longer than many had expected at the start of this season when it was becoming clear that Black Sea harvests were going to disappoint again. In the event, Russian exportable supplies are thought to have collapsed by 11m tonnes while two other key exporters, Argentina and Australia are also expected to each ship 4m tonnes less than in the previous season. But on the other hand, Indian exports are seen increasing by 7m on-year to a new record 10m tonnes versus zero normally. Canadas sales are also seen rising by 1m, Europes by 3m. At the same time, this seasons world import demand has dropped away by 12m tonnes, (after declines in Egypt, EU, Africa, Middle East), leaving exporters competing for shares of a smaller cake. Interestingly, this has occurred despite constant reports that wheats unusual discount to maize is pushing the coarse grain out of Asian feed markets. Some analysts had expected wheat prices to firm up when Russian and Ukrainian supplies started to dry up at the turn of the year. However, India, burgeoning with record stocks and with another huge crop around the corner, then stepped up as the cheapest export offer - but quickly found itself still in a pricing (and quality) contest with US and European soft wheats too. Along with the continued presence of Canada and Australia and even yet - small volumes of wheat still trickling out of Russia and Kazakhstan, there has been no apparent shortage for importers wanting to take advantage of the drop in wheat prices (up to 22%) from last summers highs. While there has been no real justification to push prices up, US wheat futures markets have gone firmer again in the past month. This is partly
Grain
medium of the digestive tract and sulphates are attributed to a higher value than oxides. A product with very low solubility, for example, copper oxide, therefore should not be used (any longer) in feeding livestock.
COMMODITIES
(degradation and damage of s dients such as vitamins or f forming harmful free radicals and reducing palatability of fe al. 1998; Lu et al. 2010; Pang a
due to US exports finally picking up and even starting to approach the needed pace for the (recently reduced) official forecast for the season. At the same time, maize has extended its unusual price premium to wheat on both the US futures and physical markets, leading to a steady surge in wheat orders from domestic feeders and even from the US ethanol industry (despite wheats lower value in terms of starch/fuel production canceling out much of the advantage of its price discount v maize). However, possibly some of those substituting wheat in this and other sectors may be using it as a bargaining tool to keep their maize costs under control. Along with the higher exports this picture of improving US wheat demand (although not yet proven in the official seasonal forecasts for US wheat usage) has begun to unsettle the speculative community. For some time, funds and other outside investors had built up record large short (sold) positions on the futures markets, effectively betting on wheat prices falling further rather than rising. As these operators have been forced to cover their exposure, that has injected a self-fuelling element into the rally on the Chicago markets. In recent weeks, along with strong EU exports and a weak euro, the US trend has also spilled some strength into the European wheat market and into international wheat export prices to a lesser extent (Paris milling wheat futures recently at six-week highs). However, this latest mini-rally would not have been possible without some help from a relatively firm maize market, the latter underpinned by an ever tightening supply after last years short US crop. As the IGC reminded markets this past month, it is not only US stocks of maize that will finish 2012/13 at unusually low levels. World stocks are also expected to fall to a 16-year low. However, if all goes well with the coming US and other world crops of maize, that inventory could be back to an eight-year high by September 2014. All this, of course, has implications for wheat demand and value. If maize prices do shift, as futures promise, from their current modest premium over wheat to a steep 24% discount
by the end of the calendar year, wheat demand and pricing will clearly be G Graph 1: Impact of various copper sources on the affected. so concentration of vitamin E in feed (Lu et al. 2010) Like wheat, maize is also s e e ing lowe r world demand The good solubility of sulphates, however, 2006; Shurson et al. 2011). a 6.7% fall in this In contrast to inorganic, org provides us with the disadvantage that for seasons exports example dissociated copper ions are very trace elements (trace element on the back of a 10% drop reactive in consumption. A must also remember, the US crop has stable in only the just diet and abso (strong pro-oxidant that initiate and big US maize crop this summer will provided begun sowing promote and, as recent wet conditions animal is improved due to speed up oxidation) and therefore world supplies keep at least adverse steady too - result with havefeed reminded traders, there remain a world structure. Their advantage is reactions components in a lot more maize and less wheat being fed there. Cheaper prices should also boos t overall feedgrain use (The IGC sees barley output up 6% too). At this stage a US maize crop rebound See our previous editions online for free is expected of at least 30 % from this years unusually low 274m tonnes to around 360/370m tonnes. Thatv will not only boost demand but replenish US s tock s, Ba helping to Are you social? keep forward Keep up to date with us in-between issues by maize prices following us on any of our social platforms down through the coming Take a look at our newly re-vamped Facebook page, season. that now covers updates from GFMT as well as all of However, we the very best of The Global Millers news
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Mycotoxins an overview
LC-MS/MS:
African advances
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Increasing storage capacity
Animal feed milling is one of the most buoyant activities in the agri related field
In this issue:
Sample preparation of feeds and forage for NIR analysis 15-Year Celebration: Fortifying with folic acid prevents 22,000 birth defects annually Global Feed Markets: Wheat supply grows and grows as corn crop shrinks
Mould control
In this issue:
NIR in practice
Efficiency
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In this issue:
Improving supply from farm to fork Victam Asia Product Showcase Global grain & feed markets
Process analysis solutions open new opportunities for improved profit and quality
Food safety in the grain milling industry Recent advances in rapid grain testing
Controlling Insects
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Optical sorting
Optical sorting has come of age and should be considered as a serious option for inclusion in any modern wheat cleaning plant
The innovative answer to odour control in the food and feed industry
A subscription magazine for the global flour & feed milling industries - first published in 1891
A subscription magazine for the global flour & feed milling industries - first published in 1891
A subscription magazine for the global flour & feed milling industries - first published in 1891
A subscription magazine for the global flour & feed milling industries - first published in 1891
A subscription magazine for the global flour & feed milling industries - first published in 1891
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figure could go up too. Kazakhstan should also see some comeback in wheat output after drought cut last years crop from 22.7m to 9.8m tonnes and exports from 11m to 6.5m. If the Black Sea crops do come back as planned, they will be up against more competition for world import trade from India (maybe another 10m tonnes of unusual expor ts) and from expected bigger EU, Canadian and Australian crops, with the usual caveat of normal weather permitting across the board. The main exception is the worlds largest wheat exporter, the USA, where drought has diminished prospects for its hard red winter crop its biggest (and therefore the worlds) single country export component. However, even that crop is improving with recent rain and snow. With old crop HRW exports running lower on lack of demand and comfortable stocks of this class and wheat in total likely to be carried into 2012/13, the US should still be able to export freely. Will world wheat trade recover from this seasons 12m tonne drop? There are no obvious contenders yet to boost the figure in the import side and the top buyer Egypt has run out of trade finance and is cutting back sharply on purchases. Will as much wheat be fed to livestock in the US, Asia feed markets etc? Probably not, if corn production rebounds as much as forecast, returning to its usual discount versus wheat. However, countries which normally use a lot of wheat in feeds but had to cut use during the past tight/ expensive season (especially Europe and the CIS) may use more as supplies rebound and prices come down. Overall, the outlook is for adequate wheat supplies. Barring several severe weather upsets (realistically there are always one or two), the forward new crop prices quoted on the
US wheat market currently look too high especially against maize which is now heavily discounted for last quarter 2013 against the spot market and at a huge discount to forward wheat prices too. European wheat markets in contrast, are heavily discounted on new crop, Paris milling wheat futures 10% to 12% below current crop prices, mainly on the assumption that domestic wheat crops will increase this summer. In conclusion, amid higher global output, increased export competition, limited import recovery prospects and less pressure to feed wheat instead of maize, the European markets prospect of cheaper wheat costs ahead starts to look more realistic than the picture painted by US futures.
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FEATURE
s being applicable to a wide includes the fully auditable dry steam belt Grain chilling in a flatWarehouse grain Refrigeration of a Grain chilling in a k settings, steam can be used sanitation unit (BSU) which cleans conveyor chilling bottom metal silo hopper silo concrete silo e innumerable cleaning tasks. belts to allergen level, saving up to 3 million corn as usual in 2012, is now expected export in 2012/13 weather. The Commissions crop forecasting an be used on feeding, mixing litres of water per annum. vessels, machinery, conveyor The organisation has also developed a close to last seasons record unit MARS recently forecast yields rebounding pipelines and also general floor central steam system for food production 15m tonnes exports. The by almost 17% which would add at least 9m e spaces and much more. As and packaging areas. This is much like a competition has been tonnes to this years production. to the surface, dry steam central vacuum, which facilitates cleaning undercutting US maize little residue and can by simply plugging the steam hoses into by as much as $20/30 per h dry, especially central steam pipes without the need for tonne, resulting in constant compared handling cleaning machines. The sophisti- downgrades to USDAs cated equipment can be used for the seasonal export forecast cleaning of heavy parts and for plastic for this grain. At 22.5m US maize planted area and growing weather will decide if US/world stocks return to parts cleaning. The machines start tonnes this will be the normal levels, prices fall as futures forecast from a 3kW single phase unit and lowest on modern record less than of and Rising global export competition for the reach up to 144kW All units ofavailthese benefits givea aquarter very quick To reduce insect infestation, a common grain storage facilities can all benefit of maize trade against USA from Latin America, CIS countries able in electric, paybackoil of or the world capital investment in the our practice is the use of fumigation. The chemitechnology. over half normally. and India may contribute cheaper maize heated typically coils. well chillers, achieved in one or two cal products used have to expertly and care- gas Consergra is pioneerto in the applicacosts ahead With the full brunt of Latfully managed, for safety reasons. And do not years. tion of chilled aeration in many products. harvests be Throughout Will Europes own maize crop rebound, Our system isAm suitable to be yet usedto in silos decrease grain temperature. the years, we have gained marketed, their dominance easing here? (made of metal or concrete, flat bottom or lots of supplies experience in the bulk preservalikely to remain at least US corn consumption seems conical bottom) is and warehouses, not need- tion of products such for as ethanol paddy rice in to all The Conserfrio system until the next US crop be picking up again and could be a mildly The Conserfrio system can be used ing additional civil works. The cooling units its varieties and lengths, cargo rice, milled proves its forecast recovery bullish factor for prices need only electrical energy. rice, maize, wheat, barley, sunflower seeds, and canthe then beThe offered at cotton Chinasseeds, growing feed demand and its maize dditional The chiller replaces fan. chilled, beans, soybeans and green those much cheaper prices deficit will it stabilize or expand in e required in Thanks to a vast improvement in weather over dry air is introduced into the silo through coffee beans to name but a few. 2013/14, first quarter 2013, Latin American maize crops indicated the futures markets. demanding the world market? improve cleaning existing by ducts. In benefit more of the from human and animal health now expected to reach record levels. Even then, the US could be air facing Speculators enthusiasm buygrains into any icient cleaning are capacity In warehouses, the chilled mayyet be and of the environment asto well, and Argentinas is up from 21m to 25/26m, Brazils another year through of increased competition from crop must weather from the steam pressure introduced ducts placed under or seeds be problems responsibly treated as food. Ukraine expects from 73m to perhaps 76m. Between them the Proteins/oilmeals - demand to mop up e surface to be cleaned and over floor. which In both cases to a harvest ducting about system could tonnes again this year. The EUs own extra soya? ower of micro they drops at aexport high 45/47m tonnes compared 21m must be previously installed. More inforMation: The oilmeal sector also remains promising with 15/25m normally. Ukraine, which for the maize crop which fell 11.5m tonnes last year with minimal moisture present. Website: www.consergra.com second year running, produced twice as much Conclusion could also rise sharply with more normal for cheaper costs ahead. Improved weather is cific The system cahas demonand strated to be nts the most natural ded A low temperature is key point and cost-effecThe Premier Grain Industry Event for a good storage ove - combining tive trade to with policy preserve Enroll in IAOMs Resident Milling Course program at cagrains, seeds Date:Tuesday, 11 June 2013 OCRIMs International School of Milling Technology in cific Venue: Westminster, London and perishable Cremona, Italy for independently of ambient weather con- granulates durhin ditions. Even under rain or fog theres ing storage. A Learn problem-solving skills for better technical and economic pliconsiderations at your mill. In addition to lecture and discussions, low storing temno risk of rewetting the grain. Our Assessing prospects, addressing challenges ces participants will be engaged in hands-on laboratory and pilot-scale not system is based on the making of con- perature uld milling exercises. only stant conditions under which grainfrom World grain and oilseed prices have the retreated their reduces thproduct vital storage issupplies easy, natural, safe and profit highs, but remain tight following last yearsthe poor IAOM Fundamentals of Milling I | Sept. 30-Oct. 4 of harvests in key exporting countries. While South American metabolic activearning. Hands-on technical training course on general our milling grecrops look set toturning break new this season, ity but also most Practices like therecords grain to cool it drought plant operations. conditions in the US remain a concern, and a recovery in troubles of the have weak success and waste lots of energy, demand will keep supplies under pressure. IAOM Fundamentals of Milling II | October 7-11 of a storing also breaking some percentage of grains. With renewed price volatility, biofuel mandates come control. Technical and economic analytical tools for milling process without There are many direct savings and ben- have under intense scrutiny, and the potential for policy-driven evaluation. Typical users efits related to a correct chilled conservation. restrictions to trade, particularly should harvests disappoint nt of chilled aeraThe most again, are important an enduringare: market concern. Course Fees: Member - 1,900 Non-member - 2,000 ns tion are from Avoiding fumigation means cost savings e course fees cover tuition, laboratory fees, books, special instruction, materials, The IGC Grains Conference brings togethersmall key farms with ch Less weight loss, in other words higher public transport pass, and lunch on class days. Fees do not include lodging and decision makers, industry representatives and other rey evening meals. Fee covers one week of instruction. as little as 100 product output at the end of storage stakeholders to discuss the latest developments in has ton storage up time the grain and oilseed markets together with the is to large plants Higher product quality means a higher policy challenges they present. a with storing selling price dry capacities of Higher head grains after the milling nes around 100,000, process. This point is especially ent 500,000 or even important in the rice industry 1,000,000 mt. Energy savings in the drying process. It for information about IGC visit: any Rice mills, is possible and safe to store product eriflour mills, feed with a higher moisture content if grain ting mills, malting temperature is low. A drying-cooling for event specic information visit: am plants, oilseed combination achieves relevant energy www.igc.int/en/conference/confhome.aspx www.iaom.info/education This crushing plants savings.
COMMODITIES
FEATURE
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helping record Latin American crop forecast materialize and, if the US sows as much as most analysts expect and gets more normal weather/yields this year supplies will be more than adequate in 2013/14. Some question marks remain over 2013 crops of other key oilseeds like sunflowers and rapeseed. However, the sheer size of the increase in soya supplies should be enough to push up world total oilseed production by some 26m tonnes or about 6% . All these alternative oilmeals, of course, cannot divorce their pricing from the market leader soya meal accounting for 55% of total meal output and with its higher protein content, the most valuable meal too. Currently the futures markets are predicting US soya meal prices will be over 15% cheaper by last quarter 2013 although, if all the US production comes through, that may considerably understate the potential decline in costs in this sector.
Sunflower/rapeseed prospects
Some analysts have forecast a 5% decline in combined Russian/Ukrainian sunflowerseed sowings with Ukraine alone down 7-10% , after less land was freed up for spring crops by winterkill of autumn-sown grain crops. Ukraine farmers might also have been
deterred by a 17% drop in last years yields due to lack of timely rains. EU sunflower output is meanwhile forecast by French analyst Strategie Grains to rise by over 11% to 7.8m tonnes but stocks of sunflowerseed in EU and global terms will be unusually low at the start of next season, so domestic supplies may still need a bigger top up than this from imports. European rapeseed crop prospects are mixed as northwest France and the UK had far too much rain, waterlogging, intermittent mild weather and freezing blasts. Some reports suggest 20% or more UK winter sowings could fail. However, Germany, Denmark and some eastern states are looking better than last year with less frost damage, so the total EU figure could yet increase within a range of 18.5/20.5m tonnes. Like sunflowerseed, rapeseed has drawn stocks to very low levels in EU and global terms so supplies are unlikely to be loose next season. On the bright side, Ukrainian crop prospects are much better than last years so more could be exported from this frequent EU supplier. The largest exporter, Canada expects to sow less canola as farmers shift to wheat but, providing this years slow snow melt doesnt hold up sowing, a return from last years weather-hit yields (they fell 20%!) to normal levels could yet
yield a record crop on the planned area. Down under, Australian rapeseed output was recently forecast to increase from last years 3.64m to about 3.5/3.7m tonnes, some estimates even approaching 4m which would be welcomed by impor ters. With world stocks at a nine-year low, bigger rapeseed crops are needed this year to avoid short supplies towards the close of next season although rapeseed meal, as noted above, will have to continue pricing at a discount to what it is hoped will be relatively abyndant soya meal.
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Measures for increasing the energy efficiency of UFA feed mills in Switzerland Importance of trace minerals for nutrient stability in feed Managing mill maintenance - Maintenance
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