Reet 1009016 Gumbell y Weibull Ivº Ceipc

REGIMEN EXTREMAL ESCALAR DEL PUERTO DE GARACHICO
RELACIN DE TEMPORALES MXIMOS ANUALES ENTRE

1958 Y 2012 MEDIDOS EN EL PUNTO WANA-SIMAR 1009016
R 1016013
ORDENADOS POR AOS CORRELATIVOS
AO
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Fecha
11/2/1958
11/6/1959
2/16/1960
12/31/1961
12/15/1962
12/20/1963
12/17/1964
12/12/1965
12/10/1966
31/121967
12/6/1968
12/1/1969
1/3/1970
1/30/1971
2/23/1972
12/21/1973
2/16/1974
1/22/1975
2/4/1976
2/23/1977
3/30/1978
1/23/1979
12/17/1980
1/14/1981
1/12/1982
10/17/1983
1/28/1984
12/29/1985
3/29/1986
4/12/1987
3/8/1988
12/29/1989
12/20/1990
2/14/1991
12/9/1992
3/16/1993
1/19/1994
2/27/1995
12/21/1996
1/21/1997
1/2/1998
1/13/1999
11/8/2000
1/30/2001
11/29/2002
1/31/2003
12/28/2004
11/28/2005
Hs (m)
5.1
4.4
5.4
5.0
5.3
4.6
4.3
4.5
5.1
4.7
5.2
4.6
4.9
3.9
6.2
5.4
4.3
4.7
5.0
4.8
4.5
4.9
6.0
4.5
5.7
4.0
5.1
4.2
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
6.2
5.5
3.7
4.9
6.7
4.8
4.6
4.8
4.6
5.3
4.1
3.9
2.8
2.6
2.3
3.8
Tp (sg)
11.1
8.4
13.2
9.7
10.9
12.9
11.3
10.5
15.9
11.1
14.2
10.2
10.3
11.5
13.8
18.4
17.8
2.9
18.4
13.7
9.0
9.8
11.6
12.0
18.4
8.5
10.3
13.1
9.4
9.4
10.0
16.3
12.4
12
10
9.3
12.2
11.4
16.2
11.4
9.4
14.7
17.7
9.1
9.2
11.2
8.4
14.3
Direccion ()
15
248
14
214
34
328
2
33
344
23
223
36
228
8
339
1
337
26
314
341
13
218
38
22
341
27
28
347
15
47
29
337
10
21
36
211
25
25
309
355
21
11
10
28
50
39
52
245
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2/28/2006
3/21/2007
12/15/2008
1/21/2009
4/4/2010
1/25/2011
2/5/2012
2.9
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.5
2.7
4.2
11.9
10.5
15.2
15.3
9.5
7.6
10.3
9
17
5
1
26
29
45
DATOS DE LA "MUESTRA " DE TEMPORALES MXIMOS ANUALES

DEL WANA-SIMAR
IMAR1016013
1009016, ENTRE 1958 Y 2008 ORDENADOS
DE MAYOR A MENOR VALOR DE "Hs".
A igualdad de Hs, se ordena por Tp de mayor a menor. A igualdad de ambos se ordena por aos.
AO
Fecha (mm/dd)
Hs (m)
Tp (sg)
Direccion ()
1994
1/19/1994
6.7
12.2
25
1972
2/23/1972
6.2
13.8
339
1990
12/20/1990
6.2
12.4
10
1980
12/17/1980
6.0
11.6
38
1982
1/12/1982
5.7
18.4
341
1991
2/14/1991
5.5
12
21
1960
2/16/1960
5.4
13.2
14
1973
12/21/1973
5.4
18.4
1
1962
12/15/1962
5.3
10.9
34
1999
1/13/1999
5.3
14.7
11
1968
12/6/1968
5.2
14.2
223
1958
11/2/1958
5.1
11.1
15
1966
12/10/1966
5.1
15.9
344
1984
1/28/1984
5.1
10.3
28
1961
12/31/1961
5.0
9.7
214
1976
2/4/1976
5.0
18.4
314
1970
1/3/1970
4.9
10.3
228
1979
1/23/1979
4.9
9.8
218
1989
12/29/1989
4.9
16.3
337
1993
3/16/1993
4.9
9.3
211
1977
2/23/1977
4.8
13.7
341
1988
3/8/1988
4.8
10.0
29
1995
2/27/1995
4.8
11.4
25
1997
1/21/1997
4.8
11.4
355
1967
31/121967
4.7
11.1
23
1975
1/22/1975
4.7
2.9
26
1987
4/12/1987
4.7
9.4
47
1963
12/20/1963
4.6
12.9
328
1969
12/1/1969
4.6
10.2
36
1986
3/29/1986
4.6
9.4
15
1996
12/21/1996
4.6
16.2
309
1998
1/2/1998
4.6
9.4
21
1965
12/12/1965
4.5
10.5
33
1978
3/30/1978
4.5
9.0
13
1981
1/14/1981
4.5
12.0
22
1959
11/6/1959
4.4
8.4
248
1964
12/17/1964
4.3
11.3
2
1974
2/16/1974
4.3
17.8
337
1985
12/29/1985
4.2
13.1
347
2012
2/5/2012
4.2
10.3
45
2000
11/8/2000
4.1
17.7
10
1983
10/17/1983
4.0
8.5
27
1971
1/30/1971
3.9
11.5
8
2001
1/30/2001
3.9
9.1
28
2005
11/28/2005
3.8
14.3
245
2007
3/21/2007
3.8
10.5
17
1992
12/9/1992
3.7
10
36
2008
12/15/2008
3.6
15.2
5
2010
2009
2006
2002
2011
2003
2004
4/4/2010
1/21/2009
2/28/2006
11/29/2002
1/25/2011
1/31/2003
12/28/2004
3.5
3.4
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.3
9.5
15.3
11.9
9.2
7.6
11.2
8.4
26
1
9
50
29
39
52
REGIMEN EXTREMAL ESCALAR DE TEMPRALES DEL PUNTO WANA-SIMAR
F.D.D.: GUMBEL (AS
"Posicin de dibujo" o Probabilidad de No excedencia

calculada por el mtodo de Distribucin de Frecuencias
F(Hs)= 1-i/(N+1)
ver diapositiva 68
Datos de la Muestra y Posicin de dibujo

AO
1994
1990
1972
1980
1982
Hs (m)
6.7
6.2
6.2
6.0
5.7
i (n orden)
1
2
3
4
5
F(Hs)
0.982143
0.964286
0.946429
0.928571
0.910714
Tr=1/(1-F(Hs))
1991
5.5
0.892857
1973
1960
1999
1962
1968
1984
1966
1958
1976
1961
1993
1989
1979
1970
1997
1995
1988
1977
1987
1975
1967
1998
1996
1986
1969
1963
1981
1978
1965
1959
1974
1964
2012
1985
2000
1983
2001
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.0
5.0
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.0
3.9
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
0.875000
0.857143
0.839286
0.821429
0.803571
0.785714
0.767857
0.750000
0.732143
0.714286
0.696429
0.678571
0.660714
0.642857
0.625000
0.607143
0.589286
0.571429
0.553571
0.535714
0.517857
0.500000
0.482143
0.464286
0.446429
0.428571
0.410714
0.392857
0.375000
0.357143
0.339286
0.321429
0.303571
0.285714
0.267857
0.250000
0.232143
8
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
56
28
19
14
11
6.0
5.0
Hs
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
Hs (m)
0.0
0.000
3.9
3.8
44
45
0.214286
0.196429
1
1
2005
3.8
46
0.178571
1992
3.7
47
0.160714
2008
3.6
48
0.142857
3.5
3.4
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.3
250
Hs (m)
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
55
i (n orden)
0.125000
0.107143
0.0892857
0.071429
0.053571
0.035714
0.017857
27.500
F(Hs)
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
##########
2010
2009
2006
2002
2011
2003
2004
Sumas
Hs (m)
1971
2007
-2
RALES DEL PUNTO WANA-SIMAR 1009016
METODO DE LOS MXIMOS ANUALES.
F.D.D.: GUMBEL (ASINTOTA I)
Posicion de dibujo de la muestra de 51 aos de Hs maximas anuales
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.000
0.100
0.200
0.300
0.400
0.500
0.600
0.700
F(Hs)
Ajuste de la muestra de Hs Mximas Anuales entre 1958 y

AJUSTE DE LA F.D.D. GUMBELL MEDIANTE REGRESION LINEAL POR
GUMBELL CALCULADO
EL METODO DE LOS MINIMOS CUADRADOS EJECUTADO POR EL exel
mediante EXCEL
Ajuste de la muestra de Hs Mximas Anuales entre 1958 y 2008 mediante la F.D.D. GUMBELL
Linear (Ajuste de la muestra de Hs Mximas Anuales entre 1958 y 2008 mediante la F.D.D. GUMBELL
12
10
8
6
4
y = 0.7340832x + 4.1413824
R = 0.9085488
4
2
0
-2
Variable reducida: y = -ln(-ln(F(Hs))
LOS MXIMOS ANUALES.
Clculos para ajuste de la F.D.D.

Gumbell analiticamente por Min.Cua
Var. Reducida
4.0163560
3.3140758
2.8993358
2.6022322
2.3695152
yi x Hsi
26.9095850
20.5472699
17.9758821
15.6133930
13.5062366
yi
16.13112
10.98310
8.40615
6.77161
5.61460
2.1774630
11.9760463
4.74134
2.0134187
1.8698247
1.7418038
1.6260232
1.5201037
1.4222861
1.3312322
1.2458993
1.1654587
1.0892396
1.0166912
0.9473544
0.8808421
0.8168239
0.7550149
0.6951669
0.6370615
0.5805048
0.5253227
0.4713577
0.4184655
0.3665129
0.3153756
0.2649359
0.2150813
0.1657030
0.1166940
0.0679478
0.0193569
-0.0291892
-0.0778058
-0.1266150
-0.1757486
-0.2253515
-0.2755853
-0.3266343
-0.3787120
10.8724609
10.0970535
9.2315599
8.6179231
7.9045394
7.2536593
6.7892842
6.3540866
5.8272934
5.4461982
4.9817870
4.6420367
4.3161262
4.0024369
3.6240713
3.3368011
3.0578954
2.7864232
2.4690168
2.2153810
1.9667876
1.6859594
1.4507277
1.2187050
0.9893740
0.7622337
0.5251229
0.3057651
0.0871060
-0.1284326
-0.3345649
-0.5444444
-0.7381442
-0.9464762
-1.1298998
-1.3065370
-1.4769767
4.05385
3.49624
3.03388
2.64395
2.31072
2.02290
1.77218
1.55227
1.35829
1.18644
1.03366
0.89748
0.77588
0.66720
0.57005
0.48326
0.40585
0.33699
0.27596
0.22218
0.17511
0.13433
0.09946
0.07019
0.04626
0.02746
0.01362
0.00462
0.00037
0.00085
0.00605
0.01603
0.03089
0.05078
0.07595
0.10669
0.14342
y=-ln(-lnF(Hs))
de 51 aos de Hs maximas anuales
0.700
0.800
0.900
1958 y 2012 por la F.D.D.
ediante EXCEL
1958 y 2008 mediante la F.D.D. GUMBELL
s entre 1958 y 2008 mediante la F.D.D. GUMBELL)
1.000
ln(F(Hs))
10
-0.4320714
-0.4870183
-1.6850783
-1.8506696
0.18669
0.23719
-0.5439315
-2.0669396
0.29586
-0.6032920
-2.2321804
0.36396
-0.6657298
-2.3966273
0.44320
-0.7320994
-0.8036112
-0.8820776
-0.9704218
-1.0738890
-1.2036341
-1.3926123
30.2744510
-2.5623478
-2.7322779
-2.5580250
-2.7171810
-2.8995002
-3.1294487
-3.2030083
192.707468
yi x Hsi
0.53597
0.64579
0.77806
0.94172
1.15324
1.44874
1.93937
49.42704
yi
yi
Ajuste por Mnimos Cuadrados

.)de una funcin Hs=F(y
Ajuste mediante Mtodo mnimos cuadra

Recta de Regresin Hs=B * y + A
La recta de regresin es
Hs =
Siendo Hs = By+A
Media y Desviacin Estandar

de la muestra
B= N.)yi.Hsi) yi.Hsi
N. yi - ( yi)
mHs=
sHs=
)A= yi.Hsi yi.)yi.Hsi

N. yi - ( yi)
TEST DE BONDAD DEL AJUSTE

Coeficiente de Determinacin R
R =
Var (Hs)=
Var y =
Cov (y,Hs)=
Error Estndar de la estimacin S (Hs)
S(Hs) =
Error Estndar de los parmetros A y B
S(A)=
S(B)=
AJUSTE MEDIANTE LA F.D.D. GUMBEL (Asintota I) POR EL

MINIMOS CUADRADOS CALCULADO ANALITICA
Muestra Temporales Mximos 1958-2008 en el punto W-S- 1009016
14
12
10
Hs
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-1
Var. Reducida: y=-ln(
Ajuste mediante Mtodo mnimos cuadrados calculao analiticamente

Recta de Regresin Hs=B * y + A
Cal. A y B s/ diapositiva 76
La recta de regresin es
1.681681774
*y+
B=
1.68168177
A=
3.61978196
3.6197820
Media y Desviacin Estandar

4.545455
0.899660
Coeficiente de Determinacin R
Cov (y,Hs)/Var y * Var Hs = 2.081358002
0.80938843
0.595684287
1.001751408
1.161211494 metros
0.192319304 Ud de los parametros
0.202871906 Ud de los parametros
Coeficiente de correlacin R
R= 1.44269124
. GUMBEL (Asintota I) POR EL METODO DE LOS

DOS CALCULADO ANALITICAMENTE
58-2008 en el punto W-S- 1009016
Ajuste FDD GUMBEL
Reducida: y=-ln(-ln(FHs))
Ecuacin de la F.D.D. ajustada y Tr

F(Hs) = e^(-e-((Hs-A)/B))
Tr=1/R= 1/(1-P)=1/(1-F(Hs))
Calculos para comprobar Bondad del Ajuste
((By+A)-m)
Calc.para Graficos Hs vs "y" y Hs vs Tr y B
Hsi
44.89
38.44
38.44
36.00
32.49
(Hs-(By+A))
(Hs-m)
13.50
8.96
5.27
3.98
3.63
4.642066116
2.737520661
2.737520661
2.115702479
1.332975207
33.9721121
21.5997050
15.6031923
11.9056315
9.3580800
4.983
3.794
2.605
2.307
2.010
30.25
3.17
0.911157025
7.4863920
1.832
29.16
29.16
28.09
28.09
27.04
26.01
26.01
26.01
25.00
25.00
24.01
24.01
24.01
24.01
23.04
23.04
23.04
23.04
22.09
22.09
22.09
21.16
21.16
21.16
21.16
21.16
20.25
20.25
20.25
19.36
18.49
18.49
17.64
17.64
16.81
16.00
15.21
2.58
1.86
1.56
1.11
0.95
0.83
0.58
0.38
0.34
0.20
0.18
0.10
0.04
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.04
0.04
0.08
0.14
0.13
0.20
0.29
0.38
0.49
0.47
0.59
0.72
0.69
0.66
0.80
0.77
0.92
0.89
0.86
0.84
0.730247934
0.730247934
0.569338843
0.569338843
0.428429752
0.307520661
0.307520661
0.307520661
0.206611570
0.206611570
0.125702479
0.125702479
0.125702479
0.125702479
0.064793388
0.064793388
0.064793388
0.064793388
0.023884298
0.023884298
0.023884298
0.002975207
0.002975207
0.002975207
0.002975207
0.002975207
0.002066116
0.002066116
0.002066116
0.021157025
0.060247934
0.060247934
0.119338843
0.119338843
0.198429752
0.297520661
0.416611570
6.0528640
4.9229738
4.0139604
3.2716888
2.6590460
2.1496254
1.7240644
1.3678088
1.0696897
0.8209843
0.6147791
0.4455243
0.3087175
0.2006728
0.1183512
0.0592323
0.0212175
0.0025555
0.0017848
0.0176887
0.0492604
0.0956755
0.1562710
0.2305294
0.3180670
0.4186257
0.5320688
0.6583797
0.7976642
0.9501563
1.1162285
1.2964069
1.4913926
1.7020909
1.9296527
2.1755290
2.4415488
1.534
1.534
1.415
1.237
1.118
1.059
1.059
0.999
0.999
0.940
0.880
0.880
0.880
0.821
0.821
0.761
0.761
0.761
0.761
0.702
0.702
0.702
0.702
0.642
0.642
0.642
0.583
0.583
0.583
0.583
0.583
0.523
0.523
0.523
0.464
0.404
0.404
y=(Hs-A)/B
15.21
14.44
1.01
1.00
0.416611570
0.555702479
2.7300263
3.0439167
0.345
0.345
14.44
1.20
0.555702479
3.3870436
0.286
13.69
1.20
0.714793388
3.7644450
0.226
12.96
1.21
0.893884298
4.1829178
0.167
12.25
11.56
8.41
7.84
7.29
6.76
5.29
1180.88
Hsi
1.24
1.28
0.58
0.66
0.79
1.01
1.04
71.47
(Hs-(By+A))
1.092975207 4.6519189
1.312066116 5.1851426
2.707520661 5.8035045
3.046611570 6.5413853
3.405702479 7.4617047
3.784793388 8.7013325
5.042066116 10.6772312
44.51636364 212.2584587
(Hs-m)
((By+A)-m)
0.167
0.107
0.107
0.048
-0.012
-0.071
-0.131
-0.428
-0.487
Ecuacin de la F.D.D. ajustada y Tr
El "Tr" es propio de cada "costa" y de su Clima Martimo
F(Hs) = e^(-e-((Hs-A)/B))
En abstracto, NO est vinculado a "L" = 50

El riesgo "R" de present en "L" si lo est: R = 1-(1-(1/Tr))^L
Tr=1/R= 1/(1-P)=1/(1-F(Hs))
Calc.para Graficos Hs vs "y" y Hs vs Tr y Bandas de Confianza

12
10
8
7.5
7
Hs+1,65r
13.1
10.8
8.5
8.0
7.4
Hs-1,65r
10.9
9.2
7.5
7.0
6.6
29.007
67.545
97.519
99.310
99.877
Tr
146
45
14
11
8
6.7
7.1
6.3
99.967
6.2
6.2
6
5.7
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.1
5
5
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.3
6.5
6.5
6.3
6.0
5.8
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.3
#VALUE!
5.9
5.9
5.7
5.4
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.0
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.3
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.3
#VALUE!
99.998
99.998
99.999
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000
100.000
5
5
5
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Hs
R%
4.2
4.2
4.2
6.1
4.2
2.3
4.1
15.5
-7.3
4.0
4.0
3.9
4.2
3.6
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
2.9
2.8
4.8
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
2.9
2.8
3.0
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
2.9
2.8
=Nt/K= 428/55=
INTERVALOS DE CONFIANZA
sr = snor * sHs
a=a1 e^(a2*(N^(-1,3)+k-lnv=)
snor = 1/N Raiz( 1,0 + a(yr-c+lnv)2)

Nt= 428
snor
yr=-ln(-ln(1-(1/Tr)))
v=N/Nt=
N=
sr = snor x sHs
7.038011605
5.855541386
4.688595195
4.402365858
4.119945655
0.748845894
0.555716825
0.369282042
0.325006103
0.282419484
0.67371
0.49996
0.33223
0.29240
0.25408
3.952842623
0.257958282
0.23207
3.679371542
0.219677969
0.19764
3.679371542
0.219677969
0.19764
3.572115216
0.205480261
0.18486
3.413987851
0.185712342
0.16708
3.310665649
0.173743778
0.15631
3.259706780
0.168177095
0.15130
3.259706780
0.168177095
0.15130
3.209251626
0.162914641
0.14657
3.209251626
0.162914641
0.14657
3.159328503
0.157976129
0.14212
3.109967080
0.153381084
0.13799
3.109967080
0.153381084
0.13799
3.109967080
0.153381084
0.13799
3.061198406
0.149148346
0.13418
3.061198406
0.149148346
0.13418
3.013054930
0.145295474
0.13072
3.013054930
0.145295474
0.13072
3.013054930
0.145295474
0.13072
3.013054930
0.145295474
0.13072
2.965570507
0.141838073
0.12761
2.965570507
0.141838073
0.12761
2.965570507
0.141838073
0.12761
2.965570507
0.141838073
0.12761
2.918780403
0.138789057
0.12486
2.918780403
0.138789057
0.12486
2.918780403
0.138789057
0.12486
2.872721280
0.136157912
0.12250
2.872721280
0.136157912
0.12250
2.872721280
0.136157912
0.12250
2.872721280
0.136157912
0.12250
2.872721280
0.136157912
0.12250
2.827431170
0.133949998
0.12051
2.827431170
2.827431170
Coeficientes de las formulas empiricas para la desviacin tpica normalizada nor (Goda 1988)
FDD
Gumbell (F-T-I)
Weibull C=0,75
a1
a2
0.64
1.65
9.00
11.4
0.93
-0.63
0.00
1.33
1.15
7.781818182
1.66737961
0.140186916
Muestra Hs Mximos Anuales 1958-2008 d
N aos muetra K= 55
Banda de Confianza de +90%
60
1,44sr (85%)
1,28sr (80%)
1.11
0.82
0.55
0.48
0.42
0.97
0.72
0.48
0.42
0.37
0.86
0.64
0.43
0.37
0.33
0.38
0.33
0.30
0.33
0.33
0.31
0.28
0.26
0.25
0.25
0.24
0.24
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.23
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.22
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.28
0.28
0.27
0.24
0.23
0.22
0.22
0.21
0.21
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.20
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.17
0.25
0.25
0.24
0.21
0.20
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.19
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.18
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.15
14
13
12
11
10
9
Hs(m)
1,65sr (90%)
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
REGIMEN EXTREMAL
1009016
12
normalizada nor (Goda 1988)

Weibull C=1
Weibull C=1,4
Weibull C=2
10
10
2.05
2.24
11.4
11.4
11.4
0.69
1.34
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.9
0.72
0.54
8
Hs (m)
1.92
0
0
REGIMEN EXTREMAL ESCALAR DE TEMPORALES AJUSTE MEDIANTE FDD GUMBEL

Y BANDAS DE CONFIANZA DEL 90% DEL PUNTO WANA-SIMAR 1009016
Muestra Hs Mximos Anuales 1958-2008 del Punto W-S 1009016
Regresion Lineal Ajuste F.D.D. Gumbel
Banda de Confianza de +90%
Banda de Confianza de -90%
3
4
Variable Reducida y =-ln(-ln (F(Hs))
REGIMEN EXTREMAL ESCALAR DE TEMPORALES DEL PUNTO WANA

1009016 AJUSTADO MEDIANTE LA F.D.D. GUMBELL Y BANDAS DE CONFIANZA DEL
+- 90%
Muestra de Temporales Mximos 1958-2008 en el Punto W-S 1009016
Ajuste mediante la FDD GUMBEL
Banda de Confianza del +90%
Banda de Confianza del -90%
10
20
30
Periodo de Retorno: Tr (aos)
40
TE MEDIANTE FDD GUMBEL

SIMAR 1009016
al Ajuste F.D.D. Gumbel
EL PUNTO WANA-SIMAR
ANDAS DE CONFIANZA DEL
REGIMEN EXTREMAL ESCA
Muestra de Temporales Mximos 1958-200
12
10
10
Hs (m)
0
50
60
10
REGIMEN EXTREMAL ESCALAR DE TEMPORALES DEL PUNTO WANA

1009016 AJUSTADO MEDIANTE LA F.D.D. GUMBELL
Muestra de Temporales Mximos 1958-2008 en el Punto W-S 1009016
10
20
30
40
PUNTO WANA-SIMAR
50
60
REGIMEN EXTREMAL ESCALAR DE TEMPRALES DEL PUNTO WANA-SIMAR 1

Posicin de dibujo o Probabilidad de No excedencia, calculada
por el mtodo de "Los Momentos Estaddticos de la Muestra"
segn Goda.
Ver diapositiva 69
(*) F(Hs) = 1- {(i- 0.2-0.27/c)/(N+0.20+0.23/c)}

AO
1994
1990
Hs (m)
6.7
6.2
i (n orden)
1
2
(*) F(Hs)
0.98900
0.97094
Tr=1/(1-F(Hs))(*)
1972
1980
1982
1991
1973
1960
1999
1962
6.2
6.0
5.7
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.3
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0.95287
0.93481
0.91675
0.89868
0.88062
0.86256
0.84450
0.82643
21
15
12
10
8
7
6
6
1968
5.2
11
0.80837
1984
1966
1958
5.1
5.1
5.1
12
13
14
0.79031
0.77225
0.75418
5
4
4
1976
5.0
15
0.73612
1961
1993
1989
1979
1970
1997
1995
1988
1977
1987
1975
1967
1998
1996
1986
1969
1963
1981
1978
1965
1959
1974
1964
2012
1985
2000
1983
2001
1971
5.0
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.9
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
0.71806
0.69999
0.68193
0.66387
0.64581
0.62774
0.60968
0.59162
0.57356
0.55549
0.53743
0.51937
0.50130
0.48324
0.46518
0.44712
0.42905
0.41099
0.39293
0.37487
0.35680
0.33874
0.32068
0.30261
0.28455
0.26649
0.24843
0.23036
0.21230
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
91
34
8
7
6
Hs (m)
5
4
3
2
1
0
0.00000
2007
2005
1992
2008
2010
2009
2006
2002
2011
2003
2004
Sumas
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.3
239.6
Hs (m)
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
55
i (n orden)
0.19424
0.17618
0.15811
0.14005
0.12199
0.10392
0.08586
0.06780
0.04974
0.03167
0.01361
27.57176
(*) F(Hs)
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
S DEL PUNTO WANA-SIMAR 1009016
F.D.D.: WEIBULL C=
Valores de "C" propuestos por GODA para muestras de unos 20 temporales: 2 - 1,4 - 1 - 0,75
Posiciones de dibujo de la Muestra de 51 aos de Hs Mximas Anuales

0.00000
0.20000
0.40000
0.60000
F(Hs)
MOS ANUALES.
Clculos para ajuste de la F.D.D.Weibu
por iteracin en exel dando valores a "
emporales: 2 - 1,4 - 1 - 0,75
Var. Reduc."y"
y=(-ln(1-F(Hs)))
4.509709
3.538242
aos de Hs Mximas Anuales
estra de 51 aos de Hs Mximas Anuales
3.054907
2.730452
2.485876
2.289518
2.125460
1.984562
1.861087
1.751196
1.652195
1.562117
1.479488
1.403168
1.332262
0.80000
1.00000
1.20000
1.266052
1.203955
1.145490
1.090255
1.037912
0.988173
0.940791
0.895553
0.852273
0.810789
0.770958
0.732652
0.695760
0.660181
0.625824
0.592608
0.560460
0.529314
0.499109
0.469789
0.441304
0.413609
0.386659
0.360417
0.334846
0.309913
0.285586
0.261837
0.238639
0.215967
0.193798
0.172110
0.150881
0.130095
0.109731
0.089774
54.223307
y=(-ln(1-F(Hs)))
Clculos para ajuste de la F.D.D.Weibull

por iteracin en exel dando valores a "A"
Para A =
0.9
Se han hecho los cambios de variables indicados en la diapositiva 63 para
z=ln(-ln(1-F(Hs)))
1.50623
1.26363
3.01
1.75786
1.66771
t= 1/C z + ln B
1.11675
1.00447
0.91063
0.82834
0.75399
0.68540
0.62116
0.56030
1.66771
1.62924
1.56862
1.52606
1.50408
1.50408
1.48160
1.48160
TANTEOS
"A"
1
2
3
4
4.25
4.5
0.50210
1.45862
4.545
0.71093293
1.4066024
0.44604
0.39170
0.33873
1.43508
1.43508
1.43508
4.55
0.72032558
1.3882611
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
0.28688
1.41099
0.23590
0.18561
0.13583
0.08641
0.03721
-0.01190
-0.06103
-0.11031
-0.15985
-0.20975
-0.26012
-0.31108
-0.36275
-0.41524
-0.46869
-0.52322
-0.57900
-0.63617
-0.69493
-0.75547
-0.81802
-0.88284
-0.95021
-1.02049
-1.09408
-1.17146
-1.25321
-1.34003
-1.43280
1.41099
1.38629
1.38629
1.38629
1.38629
1.36098
1.36098
1.36098
1.36098
1.33500
1.33500
1.33500
1.30833
1.30833
1.30833
1.30833
1.30833
1.28093
1.28093
1.28093
1.25276
1.22378
1.22378
1.19392
1.19392
1.16315
1.13140
1.09861
1.09861
Como estamos ajustando con la F.D.D. Weibu

el parmetro "C" alcance el valor C=2. O lo qu
OBJETIVO: C= 2
1/C
C
0.17533733
5.7032920
0.21566596
4.6368004
0.28256228
3.5390428
0.42607806
2.3469878
0.50061041
1.9975613
0.64957623
1.5394652
#DIV/0!
Objetivo
0.5
#DIV/0!
2.00
Ajuste de la F.D.D. Weibull C=
Muestra valores de t en 51 aos
t=1/C z + ln B
y = 0.21045725x + 1.38531248
R = 0.96512528
-1.53263
-1.64094
-1.75962
-1.89126
-2.03949
-2.20972
-2.41046
-17.10948
z=ln(-ln(1-F(Hs)))
1.06471
1.06471
1.02962
0.99325
0.95551
0.91629
0.69315
67.05012
t=ln(Hs-A)
-3
-3
-2
ios de variables indicados en la diapositiva 63 para la FDD Weibull hasta que la relacin "t" vs "z" sea LINEAL
Como estamos ajustando con la F.D.D. Weibull para C=2, vamos dando valores al parmetro "A" hasta que
el parmetro "C" alcance el valor C=2. O lo que es lo mismo que el 1/C de la recta alcance al valor mas prximo a "0,5"
t=
Ecuacin ajustada
C=
A=
B=
Ln B=
0.50
2.00
0.90
2.94
1.0785045
Media y Desviacin Estandar de la variable "t"
mt=
st=
1.0785

Coeficiente de Determinacin
R=
R = Cov (z,t)/Var (z) * Var (t) =
Var (t)=
#DIV/0!
Var z =
#DIV/0!
Cov (z,t)=
#DIV/0!
1.2191
0.2152
S(Hs) =S(t)= 2.831217807

S(A)=S(ln B)=
4.03E-01
Media y Desviacin Estandar de la Muetra de Hs
mHs=
sHs=
*z+
4.3564
S(B)=S(1/C)=
4.19E-01
0.7863
de la F.D.D. Weibull C=2 ("t" vs "z") dando valores a "A" hasta obtener C=2
Linear (Muestra valores de t en 51 aos)
2.0
1.38531248
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.0
-2
-1
-1
z= ln(-ln(1-F(Hs))

zi x ti
2.64774
2.10736
zi
2.26874
1.59676
ti
3.09006
2.78125
t-(1/C z+ln B)
-0.07468
-0.04338
1.86241
1.63652
1.42842
1.26410
1.13406
1.03089
0.92031
0.83014
1.24713
1.00895
0.82924
0.68615
0.56850
0.46977
0.38584
0.31394
2.78125
2.65442
2.46056
2.32885
2.26225
2.26225
2.19515
2.19515
0.03015
0.04789
0.03424
0.03288
0.04812
0.08246
0.09214
0.12261
dar de la estimacin S (Hs)
0.73238
0.25211
2.12756
0.12875
metros
dar de los parmetros A y B
Ud de los parametros
0.64011
0.56212
0.48611
0.19895
0.15343
0.11474
2.05947
2.05947
2.05947
0.13329
0.16049
0.18701
0.40478
0.08230
1.99088
0.18887
0.33286
0.25731
0.18830
0.11979
0.05159
-0.01619
-0.08307
-0.15013
-0.21755
-0.28001
-0.34726
-0.41530
-0.47460
-0.54327
-0.61320
-0.68455
-0.75752
-0.81490
-0.89016
-0.96771
-1.02479
-1.08039
-1.16285
-1.21839
-1.30625
-1.36259
-1.41788
-1.47217
-1.57409
0.05565
0.03445
0.01845
0.00747
0.00138
0.00014
0.00373
0.01217
0.02555
0.04399
0.06766
0.09677
0.13159
0.17243
0.21967
0.27376
0.33524
0.40472
0.48293
0.57074
0.66916
0.77940
0.90290
1.04140
1.19702
1.37233
1.57054
1.79568
2.05292
1.99088
1.92181
1.92181
1.92181
1.92181
1.85226
1.85226
1.85226
1.85226
1.78223
1.78223
1.78223
1.71173
1.71173
1.71173
1.71173
1.71173
1.64079
1.64079
1.64079
1.56942
1.49763
1.49763
1.42545
1.42545
1.35292
1.28007
1.20695
1.20695
0.21439
0.21487
0.23979
0.26453
0.28916
0.28843
0.31303
0.33770
0.36249
0.36150
0.38672
0.41223
0.41142
0.43770
0.46446
0.49176
0.51968
0.52090
0.55032
0.58063
0.58377
0.58723
0.62096
0.62629
0.66313
0.67109
0.68027
0.69094
0.73738
al valor mas prximo a "0,5"
ONDAD DEL AJUSTE

de Determinacin
R=
Cov (z,t)/Var (z) * Var (t) =
0.98080211
#DIV/0!
Coeficiente de Correlacin
R= 0.990354538
a obtener C=2
-1.63181
-1.74712
-1.81174
-1.87850
-1.94876
-2.02475
-1.67080
-12.95101
zi x ti
2.34895
2.69268
3.09628
3.57687
4.15954
4.88288
5.81032
51.08388
zi
1.13361
0.75346
1.13361
0.80768
1.06012
0.83200
0.98655
0.86153
0.91300
0.89800
0.83959
0.94400
0.48045
0.82134
90.23231
20.6115768
ti
ti -(1/C*zi+ln B)
Para obtener s y s
5.4926314
3.3989950
0.20125
0.16822
0.12217
0.09423
0.08122
0.08122
0.06891
0.06891
3.3989950
2.7015405
1.8053587
1.3079041
1.0891769
1.0891769
0.8904496
0.8904496
0.05737
0.7117223
0.04665
0.04665
0.04665
0.5529950
0.5529950
0.5529950
0.03682
0.4142678
0.03682
0.02796
0.02796
0.02796
0.02796
0.02013
0.02013
0.02013
0.02013
0.01343
0.01343
0.01343
0.00796
0.00796
0.00796
0.00796
0.00796
0.00382
0.00382
0.00382
0.00113
0.00002
0.00002
0.00063
0.00063
0.00313
0.00769
0.01452
0.01452
0.4142678
0.2955405
0.2955405
0.2955405
0.2955405
0.1968132
0.1968132
0.1968132
0.1968132
0.1180860
0.1180860
0.1180860
0.0593587
0.0593587
0.0593587
0.0593587
0.0593587
0.0206314
0.0206314
0.0206314
0.0019041
0.0031769
0.0031769
0.0244496
0.0244496
0.0657223
0.1269950
0.2082678
0.2082678
AJUSTE CON LA F.D.D. WEIBULL PARA C = 2, AJUSTANDO SOLAMEN
AJUSTABDO A LA PARTE CENTRAL DE LA MUESTRA LOS VALORES DE LOS PARAM

C= 2.00
A= 4.26
B= 2.97
1/C= 0.4999
LNB= 1.0871
Las Diferencias de estos parametros con los ajustados a la TOTALIDAD de la Muestra

Y apenas afectan a los resultados finales
SELECCIN DE LOS PUNTOS CENTRALES DE LA MUES
Muestra TOTAL
y = 0.1805x + 1.3774
R = 0.98
t=1/C z+ln B
(Hs-Hs)
(t-t)
0.29027
0.20125
0.02383
0.02383
0.03590
0.05100
0.06948
0.09169
0.27662
2.54722
(t-t)
0.3095405
0.3095405
0.4308132
0.5720860
0.7333587
0.9146314
2.1209950
34.0036562
(Hs-Hs)
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
LL PARA C = 2, AJUSTANDO SOLAMENTE LA PARTE CENTRAL DE LA MUESTRA
DE LA MUESTRA LOS VALORES DE LOS PARAMETROS SERAN
B=e^1,0871
on los ajustados a la TOTALIDAD de la Muestra son Mnimas
LOS PUNTOS CENTRALES DE LA MUESTRA PARA EXTRAPOLAR LA F.D.D.
Muestra TOTAL
Muestra elegida para el ajuste de la F.D.D.
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.0
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
z=ln(-ln(1-F(Hs))
0.0000
Ecuacin de la F.D.D.WEIBULL ajustada y Tr
F(Hs) = 1-EXP(-((Hs-A)/B))^C
En abstracto, NO est vinculado a "L" =
Tr=1/R= 1/(1-P)=1/(1-F(Hs))
El riesgo "R" de present en "L" si lo est: R = 1-(1-(1/Tr))^

y=-ln (1-F(Hs))
11.7641
9.5523
F(Hs)
Hs
0.99999
0.99993
11
10
Hs+1,65r
12.41
11.22
Hs-1,65r
9.59
8.78
7.5704
5.8184
4.2964
3.8847
3.2445
3.2445
3.0046
2.6619
0.99948
0.99703
0.98638
0.97945
0.96101
0.96101
0.95044
0.93018
9
8
7
6.7
6.2
6.2
6
5.7
10.05
8.87
7.70
7.35
6.77
6.77
6.54
6.20
7.95
7.13
6.30
6.05
5.63
5.63
5.46
5.20
2.4449
0.91327
5.5
5.97
5.03
2.3399
2.3399
2.2372
0.90366
0.90366
0.89324
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.85
5.85
5.74
4.95
4.95
4.86
2.2372
0.89324
5.3
5.74
4.86
2.1368
2.0387
2.0387
2.0387
1.9428
1.9428
1.8493
1.8493
1.8493
1.8493
1.7581
1.7581
1.7581
1.7581
1.6692
1.6692
1.6692
1.5826
1.5826
1.5826
1.5826
1.5826
1.4984
1.4984
1.4984
1.4164
1.3367
1.3367
1.2593
0.88196
0.86980
0.86980
0.86980
0.85670
0.85670
0.84266
0.84266
0.84266
0.84266
0.82763
0.82763
0.82763
0.82763
0.81161
0.81161
0.81161
0.79457
0.79457
0.79457
0.79457
0.79457
0.77650
0.77650
0.77650
0.75741
0.73728
0.73728
0.71615
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.1
5
5
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.2
5.63
5.51
5.51
5.51
5.40
5.40
5.29
5.29
5.29
5.29
5.17
5.17
5.17
5.17
5.06
5.06
5.06
4.95
4.95
4.95
4.95
4.95
4.84
4.84
4.84
4.72
4.61
4.61
4.50
4.77
4.69
4.69
4.69
4.60
4.60
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.51
4.43
4.43
4.43
4.43
4.34
4.34
4.34
4.25
4.25
4.25
4.25
4.25
4.16
4.16
4.16
4.08
3.99
3.99
3.90
1.2593
1.1842
1.1115
1.0410
1.0410
0.9728
0.9728
0.9070
0.8434
0.7822
0.7232
0.4631
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.71615
0.69402
0.67092
0.64689
0.64689
0.62199
0.62199
0.59625
0.56976
0.54259
0.51482
0.37068
4.2
4.1
4
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
2.9
4.50
4.39
4.28
4.17
4.17
4.06
4.06
3.95
3.84
3.73
3.63
3.10
3.90
3.81
3.72
3.63
3.63
3.54
3.54
3.45
3.36
3.27
3.17
2.70
es propio de cada "costa" y de su Clima Martimo INTERVALOS DE CONFIANZA
tracto, NO est vinculado a "L" =
sr = snor * sHs
50
snor = 1/N Raiz( 1,0 + a*(yr-c+lnv))

go "R" de present en "L" si lo est: R = 1-(1-(1/Tr))^L
Nt= 204
Relacin Tr / Hs
yr=(ln(Tr))^1/C
snor
0.038887
0.354562
Tr
128553
14077
3.63205
3.31219
1.083248
0.943218
2.545109
13.828832
49.617154
64.597603
86.308283
86.308283
92.125639
97.318352
1940
336
73
49
26
26
20
14
2.99678
2.68740
2.38638
2.29820
2.15395
2.15395
2.09733
2.01372
0.805563
0.671198
0.541559
0.503910
0.442803
0.442803
0.419031
0.384214
98.928764
12
1.95895
0.361634
99.368582
99.368582
99.646464
10
10
9
1.93189
1.93189
1.90504
0.350553
0.350553
0.339621
99.646464
1.90504
0.339621
99.812696
99.906486
99.906486
99.906486
99.956192
99.956192
99.980831
99.980831
99.980831
99.980831
99.992203
99.992203
99.992203
99.992203
99.997067
99.997067
99.997067
99.998985
99.998985
99.998985
99.998985
99.998985
99.999679
99.999679
99.999679
99.999907
99.999976
99.999976
99.999994
8
8
8
8
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
1.87843
1.85205
1.85205
1.85205
1.82593
1.82593
1.80008
1.80008
1.80008
1.80008
1.77450
1.77450
1.77450
1.77450
1.74920
1.74920
1.74920
1.72421
1.72421
1.72421
1.72421
1.72421
1.69952
1.69952
1.69952
1.67517
1.65115
1.65115
1.62749
0.328848
0.318240
0.318240
0.318240
0.307809
0.307809
0.297563
0.297563
0.297563
0.297563
0.287513
0.287513
0.287513
0.287513
0.277670
0.277670
0.277670
0.268045
0.268045
0.268045
0.268045
0.268045
0.258653
0.258653
0.258653
0.249504
0.240615
0.240615
0.231998
R%
99.999994
99.999999
100.000000
100.000000
100.000000
100.000000
100.000000
100.000000
100.000000
100.000000
100.000000
100.000000
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1.62749
1.60421
1.58131
1.55882
1.55882
1.53675
1.53675
1.51512
1.49395
1.47327
1.45308
1.36044
0.231998
0.223669
0.215644
0.207938
0.207938
0.200568
0.200568
0.193550
0.186898
0.180629
0.174756
0.151652
FDD
Gumbell (F-T-I)
a1
a2
0.64
9
0.93
0
1.33
=Nt/K= 204/51= 4
a=a1 e^(a2*(N^(-1,3)+k-lnv)=
10.92337984
v=N/Nt= 0.274509804
N=
sr = snor x sHs
N aos muetra K= 51
56
1,65sr (90%)
1,44sr (85%)
1,28sr (80%)
0.851744459
0.741640994
1.405378357
1.223707641
1.22651202
1.067963032
1.090232907
0.949300473
0.633404609
0.527754534
0.425821467
0.396217862
0.348170773
0.348170773
0.329478918
0.30210298
1.045117605
0.870794981
0.70260542
0.653759472
0.574481775
0.574481775
0.543640214
0.498469918
0.912102637
0.759966529
0.613182912
0.570553721
0.501365913
0.501365913
0.474449642
0.435028292
0.8107579
0.675525804
0.545051478
0.507158863
0.445658589
0.445658589
0.421733015
0.386691815
0.284348089
0.469174348
0.409461249
0.363965555
0.275635251
0.275635251
0.267040035
0.454798165
0.454798165
0.440616057
0.396914762
0.396914762
0.38453765
0.352813122
0.352813122
0.341811244
0.267040035
0.440616057
0.38453765
0.341811244
0.25856884
0.250228491
0.250228491
0.250228491
0.242026254
0.242026254
0.233969872
0.233969872
0.233969872
0.233969872
0.226067577
0.226067577
0.226067577
0.226067577
0.218328121
0.218328121
0.218328121
0.210760785
0.210760785
0.210760785
0.210760785
0.210760785
0.20337539
0.20337539
0.20337539
0.196182304
0.189192424
0.189192424
0.18241715
0.426638587
0.41287701
0.41287701
0.41287701
0.39934332
0.39934332
0.386050288
0.386050288
0.386050288
0.386050288
0.373011503
0.373011503
0.373011503
0.373011503
0.3602414
0.3602414
0.3602414
0.347755294
0.347755294
0.347755294
0.347755294
0.347755294
0.335569394
0.335569394
0.335569394
0.323700802
0.312167499
0.312167499
0.300988298
0.37233913
0.360329026
0.360329026
0.360329026
0.348517806
0.348517806
0.336916615
0.336916615
0.336916615
0.336916615
0.325537311
0.325537311
0.325537311
0.325537311
0.314392494
0.314392494
0.314392494
0.30349553
0.30349553
0.30349553
0.30349553
0.30349553
0.292860562
0.292860562
0.292860562
0.282502518
0.27243709
0.27243709
0.262680697
0.330968116
0.320292468
0.320292468
0.320292468
0.309793606
0.309793606
0.299481436
0.299481436
0.299481436
0.299481436
0.289366499
0.289366499
0.289366499
0.289366499
0.279459995
0.279459995
0.279459995
0.269773804
0.269773804
0.269773804
0.269773804
0.269773804
0.2603205
0.2603205
0.2603205
0.25111335
0.242166303
0.242166303
0.233493952
0.18241715
0.175868342
0.169558239
0.163499358
0.163499358
0.157704343
0.157704343
0.152185779
0.14695595
0.142026541
0.137408294
0.119241818
0.300988298
0.290182764
0.279771095
0.26977394
0.26977394
0.260212166
0.260212166
0.251106536
0.242477317
0.234343792
0.226723685
0.196748999
0.262680697
0.253250413
0.244163865
0.235439075
0.235439075
0.227094254
0.227094254
0.219147522
0.211616567
0.204518219
0.197867944
0.171708217
0.233493952
0.225111478
0.217034546
0.209279178
0.209279178
0.201861559
0.201861559
0.194797797
0.188103616
0.181793972
0.175882616
0.152629527
as empiricas para la desviacin tpica normalizada nor (Goda 1988)

Weibull C=0,75
Weibull C=1
Weibull C=1,4
Weibull C=2
1.65
1.92
2.05
2.24
11.4
11.4
11.4
11.4
-0.63
0.69
1.34
0.3
0.4
0.5
1.15
0.9
0.72
0.54
0.75
1.4
REGIMEN EXTREMA ESCALAR DE TEMPORALES AJUSTADO

F.D.D.WEIBULL - C=2 Y BANDAS DE CONFIANZA DEL +
1009016
AJUSTE MEDIANTE F.D.D. WEIBULL --C=2
Muestra de las Hs Mximas Anuales 1958-2008 del Punto W-S-1009016

14
12
10
Hs (m)
0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Variable reducida y = -ln (
REGIMEN ESTREMAL ESCALAR DE TEMPORALES AJUSTADO

F.D.D. WEIBULL C=2, DEL PUNTO WANA-SIMAR
CONFIANZADEL +-90
Muestra de Hs Mximas Anuales 1958-2008 del punto W-S 1009016
CONFIANZADEL +-90
Ajuste mediante la F.D.D. Weibull C=2
Banda de Confiaza del -90%
14
12
Hs (m)
10
8
6
4
2
0
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
LAR DE TEMPORALES AJUSTADO MEDIANTE LA

DE CONFIANZA DEL +-90% DEL PUNTO WANA-SIMAR
1009016
D.D. WEIBULL --C=2
mas Anuales 1958-2008 del Punto W-S-1009016
8.0
10.0
12.0
le reducida y = -ln (1-F(Hs))
DE TEMPORALES AJUSTADO MEDIANTE LA

-SIMAR 1009016 Y BANDAS DE
IANZADEL +-90%
mas Anuales 1958-2008 del punto W-S 1009016
14.0
IANZADEL +-90%
12
10
Hs (m)
8
6
4
2
0
0
80000
100000
o de Retorno: Tr (aos)
120000
140000
REGIMEN ESTREMAL ESCALAR DE TEMPORALES AJUSTADO ME

LA F.D.D. WEIBULL C=2, DEL PUNTO WANA
Ajuste mediante la F.D.D. Wei
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
EMPORALES AJUSTADO MEDIANTE

UNTO WANA-SIMAR 1009016
torno: Tr (aos)
100000
120000
140000
REGIMEN EXTREMAL ESCALAR DE TEMPRALES DEL PUNTO WANA-SIMAR 1

Posicin de dibujo o Probabilidad de No excedencia, calculada
por el mtodo de "Los Momentos Estaddticos de la Muestra"
segn Goda.
Ver diapositiva 69
(*) F(Hs) = 1- {(i- 0.2-0.27/c)/(N+0.20+0.23/c)}

AO
1994
1990
Hs (m)
6.7
6.2
i (n orden)
1
2
(*) F(Hs)
0.98836
0.97029
Tr=1/(1-F(Hs))(*)
1972
1980
1982
1991
1973
1960
1999
1962
6.2
6.0
5.7
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.3
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0.95221
0.93414
0.91607
0.89800
0.87992
0.86185
0.84378
0.82571
21
15
12
10
8
7
6
6
1968
5.2
11
0.80763
1984
1966
1958
5.1
5.1
5.1
12
13
14
0.78956
0.77149
0.75342
5
4
4
1976
5.0
15
0.73534
1961
1993
1989
1979
1970
1997
1995
1988
1977
1987
1975
1967
1998
1996
1986
1969
1963
1981
1978
1965
1959
1974
1964
2012
1985
2000
1983
2001
1971
5.0
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.9
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
0.71727
0.69920
0.68113
0.66305
0.64498
0.62691
0.60884
0.59076
0.57269
0.55462
0.53655
0.51848
0.50040
0.48233
0.46426
0.44619
0.42811
0.41004
0.39197
0.37390
0.35582
0.33775
0.31968
0.30161
0.28353
0.26546
0.24739
0.22932
0.21124
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
86
34
8
7
6
Hs (m)
5
4
3
2
1
0
0.00000
2007
2005
1992
2008
2010
2009
2006
2002
2011
2003
2004
Sumas
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.3
239.6
Hs (m)
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
55
i (n orden)
0.19317
0.17510
0.15703
0.13895
0.12088
0.10281
0.08474
0.06666
0.04859
0.03052
0.01245
27.52215
(*) F(Hs)
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
S DEL PUNTO WANA-SIMAR 1009016
F.D.D.: WEIBULL C=
Valores de "C" propuestos por GODA para muestras de unos 20 temporales: 2 - 1,4 - 1 - 0,75

0.00000
0.20000
0.40000
0.60000
F(Hs)
MOS ANUALES.
Clculos para ajuste de la F.D.D.Weibu
por iteracin en exel dando valores a "
emporales: 2 - 1,4 - 1 - 0,75
Var. Reduc."y"
y=(-ln(1-F(Hs)))
4.453243
3.516163
aos de Hs Mximas Anuales
estra de 51 aos de Hs Mximas Anuales
3.041029
2.720252
2.477765
2.282752
2.119634
1.979430
1.856487
1.747018
1.648358
1.558565
1.476174
1.400057
1.329327
0.80000
1.00000
1.20000
1.263271
1.201309
1.142963
1.087835
1.035588
0.985935
0.938632
0.893466
0.850251
0.808828
0.769052
0.730797
0.693953
0.658418
0.624102
0.590925
0.558813
0.527701
0.497528
0.468238
0.439782
0.412113
0.385189
0.358971
0.333423
0.308512
0.284206
0.260476
0.237297
0.214643
0.192491
0.170819
0.149607
0.128835
0.108486
0.088543
54.007251
y=(-ln(1-F(Hs)))
Clculos para ajuste de la F.D.D.Weibull

por iteracin en exel dando valores a "A"
Para A =
Se han hecho los cambios de variables indicados en la diapositiva 63 para
z=ln(-ln(1-F(Hs)))
1.49363
1.25737
3.01
1.74047
1.64866
t= 1/C z + ln B
1.11220
1.00072
0.90736
0.82538
0.75124
0.68281
0.61869
0.55791
1.64866
1.60944
1.54756
1.50408
1.48160
1.48160
1.45862
1.45862
TANTEOS
"A"
1
2
3
4
0.5
4.5
0.49978
1.43508
4.545
0.71093293
1.4066024
0.44377
0.38945
0.33651
1.41099
1.41099
1.41099
4.55
0.72032558
1.3882611
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
0.28467
1.38629
0.23370
0.18341
0.13362
0.08419
0.03497
-0.01416
-0.06333
-0.11265
-0.16222
-0.21217
-0.26260
-0.31362
-0.36535
-0.41792
-0.47144
-0.52607
-0.58194
-0.63923
-0.69810
-0.75878
-0.82148
-0.88646
-0.95402
-1.02451
-1.09834
-1.17600
-1.25806
-1.34524
-1.43844
1.38629
1.36098
1.36098
1.36098
1.36098
1.33500
1.33500
1.33500
1.33500
1.30833
1.30833
1.30833
1.28093
1.28093
1.28093
1.28093
1.28093
1.25276
1.25276
1.25276
1.22378
1.19392
1.19392
1.16315
1.16315
1.13140
1.09861
1.06471
1.06471
Como estamos ajustando con la F.D.D. Weibu

el parmetro "C" alcance el valor C=2. O lo qu
OBJETIVO: C= 2
1/C
C
0.17533733
5.7032920
0.21566596
4.6368004
0.28256228
3.5390428
0.42607806
2.3469878
0.50061041
1.9975613
0.64957623
1.5394652
#DIV/0!
Objetivo
0.5
#DIV/0!
2.00
Ajuste de la F.D.D. Weibull C=
t=1/C z + ln B
y = 0.21634735x + 1.36034586
R = 0.96443032
-1.53878
-1.64771
-1.76715
-1.89975
-2.04922
-2.22114
-2.42427
-17.31874
z=ln(-ln(1-F(Hs)))
1.02962
1.02962
0.99325
0.95551
0.91629
0.87547
0.64185
65.63077
t=ln(Hs-A)
-3
-3
-2
ios de variables indicados en la diapositiva 63 para la FDD Weibull hasta que la relacin "t" vs "z" sea LINEAL
Como estamos ajustando con la F.D.D. Weibull para C=2, vamos dando valores al parmetro "A" hasta que
el parmetro "C" alcance el valor C=2. O lo que es lo mismo que el 1/C de la recta alcance al valor mas prximo a "0,5"
t=
Ecuacin ajustada
C=
A=
B=
Ln B=
0.50
2.00
1.00
2.94
1.0785045
Media y Desviacin Estandar de la variable "t"
mt=
st=
1.0785

Coeficiente de Determinacin
R=
R = Cov (z,t)/Var (z) * Var (t) =
Var (t)=
#DIV/0!
Var z =
#DIV/0!
Cov (z,t)=
#DIV/0!
1.1933
0.2197
S(Hs) =S(t)= 2.650645147

S(A)=S(ln B)=
3.78E-01
Media y Desviacin Estandar de la Muetra de Hs
mHs=
sHs=
*z+
4.3564
S(B)=S(1/C)=
3.91E-01
0.7863
de la F.D.D. Weibull C=2 ("t" vs "z") dando valores a "A" hasta obtener C=2
Linear (Muestra valores de t en 51 aos)
2.0
1.36034586
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.0
-2
-1
-1
z= ln(-ln(1-F(Hs))

zi x ti
2.59962
2.07297
zi
2.23094
1.58098
ti
3.02922
2.71808
t-(1/C z+ln B)
-0.08577
-0.05930
1.83363
1.61060
1.40419
1.24144
1.11305
1.01165
0.90242
0.81378
1.23698
1.00145
0.82330
0.68126
0.56437
0.46623
0.38277
0.31126
2.71808
2.59029
2.39495
2.26225
2.19515
2.19515
2.12756
2.12756
0.01338
0.02996
0.01483
0.01238
0.02702
0.06128
0.07039
0.10081
dar de la estimacin S (Hs)
0.71723
0.24978
2.05947
0.10638
metros
dar de los parmetros A y B
0.62615
0.54951
0.47482
0.19693
0.15167
0.11324
1.99088
1.99088
1.99088
0.11033
0.13752
0.16402
0.39464
0.08104
1.92181
0.16528
0.32398
0.24962
0.18186
0.11458
0.04759
-0.01891
-0.08455
-0.15038
-0.21657
-0.27759
-0.34356
-0.41032
-0.46799
-0.53532
-0.60389
-0.67386
-0.74543
-0.80080
-0.87456
-0.95057
-1.00530
-1.05836
-1.13903
-1.19166
-1.27754
-1.33052
-1.38212
-1.43229
-1.53152
0.05462
0.03364
0.01786
0.00709
0.00122
0.00020
0.00401
0.01269
0.02632
0.04502
0.06896
0.09836
0.13348
0.17465
0.22226
0.27675
0.33865
0.40861
0.48735
0.57575
0.67482
0.78581
0.91016
1.04963
1.20636
1.38297
1.58271
1.80968
2.06911
1.92181
1.85226
1.85226
1.85226
1.85226
1.78223
1.78223
1.78223
1.78223
1.71173
1.71173
1.71173
1.64079
1.64079
1.64079
1.64079
1.64079
1.56942
1.56942
1.56942
1.49763
1.42545
1.42545
1.35292
1.35292
1.28007
1.20695
1.13361
1.13361
0.19080
0.19065
0.21558
0.24033
0.26497
0.26359
0.28820
0.31289
0.33771
0.33604
0.36129
0.38683
0.38533
0.41164
0.43844
0.46578
0.49375
0.49426
0.52374
0.55411
0.55651
0.55919
0.59301
0.59753
0.63449
0.64161
0.64990
0.65965
0.70631
al valor mas prximo a "0,5"
ONDAD DEL AJUSTE

de Determinacin
R=
Cov (z,t)/Var (z) * Var (t) =
0.98080211
#DIV/0!
Coeficiente de Correlacin
R= 0.990354538
a obtener C=2
-1.58436
-1.69651
-1.75523
-1.81523
-1.87768
-1.94453
-1.55603
-12.44888
zi x ti
2.36784
2.71493
3.12282
3.60904
4.19932
4.93344
5.87709
51.35538
zi
1.06012
0.72144
1.06012
0.77597
0.98655
0.79940
0.91300
0.82804
0.83959
0.86365
0.76645
0.90889
0.41198
0.77696
86.66577
19.2969880
ti
ti -(1/C*zi+ln B)
Para obtener s y s
5.4926314
3.3989950
0.20736
0.17318
0.12551
0.09659
0.08313
0.08313
0.07040
0.07040
3.3989950
2.7015405
1.8053587
1.3079041
1.0891769
1.0891769
0.8904496
0.8904496
0.05847
0.7117223
0.04739
0.04739
0.04739
0.5529950
0.5529950
0.5529950
0.03725
0.4142678
0.03725
0.02812
0.02812
0.02812
0.02812
0.02008
0.02008
0.02008
0.02008
0.01324
0.01324
0.01324
0.00768
0.00768
0.00768
0.00768
0.00768
0.00354
0.00354
0.00354
0.00093
0.00000
0.00000
0.00091
0.00091
0.00383
0.00896
0.01653
0.01653
0.4142678
0.2955405
0.2955405
0.2955405
0.2955405
0.1968132
0.1968132
0.1968132
0.1968132
0.1180860
0.1180860
0.1180860
0.0593587
0.0593587
0.0593587
0.0593587
0.0593587
0.0206314
0.0206314
0.0206314
0.0019041
0.0031769
0.0031769
0.0244496
0.0244496
0.0657223
0.1269950
0.2082678
0.2082678
AJUSTE CON LA F.D.D. WEIBULL PARA C = 2, AJUSTANDO SOLAMEN
AJUSTABDO A LA PARTE CENTRAL DE LA MUESTRA LOS VALORES DE LOS PARAM

C= 2.00
A= 4.26
B= 2.97
1/C= 0.4999
LNB= 1.0871
Las Diferencias de estos parametros con los ajustados a la TOTALIDAD de la Muestra

Y apenas afectan a los resultados finales
SELECCIN DE LOS PUNTOS CENTRALES DE LA MUES
Muestra TOTAL
y = 0.1854x + 1.3522
R = 0.9799
t=1/C z+ln B
(Hs-Hs)
(t-t)
0.29941
0.20736
0.02679
0.02679
0.04001
0.05654
0.07673
0.10101
0.30408
2.65370
(t-t)
0.3095405
0.3095405
0.4308132
0.5720860
0.7333587
0.9146314
2.1209950
34.0036562
(Hs-Hs)
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
LL PARA C = 2, AJUSTANDO SOLAMENTE LA PARTE CENTRAL DE LA MUESTRA
DE LA MUESTRA LOS VALORES DE LOS PARAMETROS SERAN
B=e^1,0871
on los ajustados a la TOTALIDAD de la Muestra son Mnimas
LOS PUNTOS CENTRALES DE LA MUESTRA PARA EXTRAPOLAR LA F.D.D.
Muestra TOTAL
Muestra elegida para el ajuste de la F.D.D.
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.0
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
z=ln(-ln(1-F(Hs))
0.0000
Ecuacin de la F.D.D.WEIBULL ajustada y Tr
F(Hs) = 1-EXP(-((Hs-A)/B))^C
En abstracto, NO est vinculado a "L" =
Tr=1/R= 1/(1-P)=1/(1-F(Hs))
El riesgo "R" de present en "L" si lo est: R = 1-(1-(1/Tr))^

y=-ln (1-F(Hs))
11.5326
9.3438
F(Hs)
Hs
0.99999
0.99991
11
10
Hs+1,65r
13.46
12.15
Hs-1,65r
8.54
7.85
7.3849
5.6559
4.1569
3.7521
3.1234
3.1234
2.8880
2.5522
0.99938
0.99650
0.98434
0.97653
0.95599
0.95599
0.94431
0.92209
9
8
7
6.7
6.2
6.2
6
5.7
10.85
9.55
8.26
7.88
7.24
7.24
6.99
6.61
7.15
6.45
5.74
5.52
5.16
5.16
5.01
4.79
2.3399
0.90366
5.5
6.36
4.64
2.2372
2.2372
2.1368
0.89324
0.89324
0.88196
5.4
5.4
5.3
6.24
6.24
6.11
4.56
4.56
4.49
2.1368
0.88196
5.3
6.11
4.49
2.0387
1.9428
1.9428
1.9428
1.8493
1.8493
1.7581
1.7581
1.7581
1.7581
1.6692
1.6692
1.6692
1.6692
1.5826
1.5826
1.5826
1.4984
1.4984
1.4984
1.4984
1.4984
1.4164
1.4164
1.4164
1.3367
1.2593
1.2593
1.1842
0.86980
0.85670
0.85670
0.85670
0.84266
0.84266
0.82763
0.82763
0.82763
0.82763
0.81161
0.81161
0.81161
0.81161
0.79457
0.79457
0.79457
0.77650
0.77650
0.77650
0.77650
0.77650
0.75741
0.75741
0.75741
0.73728
0.71615
0.71615
0.69402
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.1
5
5
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.2
5.99
5.86
5.86
5.86
5.74
5.74
5.61
5.61
5.61
5.61
5.49
5.49
5.49
5.49
5.37
5.37
5.37
5.24
5.24
5.24
5.24
5.24
5.12
5.12
5.12
5.00
4.88
4.88
4.75
4.41
4.34
4.34
4.34
4.26
4.26
4.19
4.19
4.19
4.19
4.11
4.11
4.11
4.11
4.03
4.03
4.03
3.96
3.96
3.96
3.96
3.96
3.88
3.88
3.88
3.80
3.72
3.72
3.65
1.1842
1.1115
1.0410
0.9728
0.9728
0.9070
0.9070
0.8434
0.7822
0.7232
0.6666
0.4180
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.69402
0.67092
0.64689
0.62199
0.62199
0.59625
0.59625
0.56976
0.54259
0.51482
0.48654
0.34165
4.2
4.1
4
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
2.9
4.75
4.63
4.51
4.39
4.39
4.27
4.27
4.15
4.04
3.92
3.80
3.23
3.65
3.57
3.49
3.41
3.41
3.33
3.33
3.25
3.16
3.08
3.00
2.57
es propio de cada "costa" y de su Clima Martimo INTERVALOS DE CONFIANZA
tracto, NO est vinculado a "L" =
sr = snor * sHs
50
snor = 1/N Raiz( 1,0 + a*(yr-c+lnv))

go "R" de present en "L" si lo est: R = 1-(1-(1/Tr))^L
Nt= 204
Relacin Tr / Hs
yr=(ln(Tr))^1/C
snor
0.049015
0.436599
Tr
101985
11428
3.59990
3.28043
1.895044
1.658088
3.056150
16.066964
54.569670
69.499862
89.463035
89.463035
94.300767
98.267231
1611
286
64
43
23
23
18
13
2.96554
2.65687
2.35686
2.26906
2.12555
2.12555
2.06928
1.98624
1.424753
1.196362
0.974920
0.910273
0.804836
0.804836
0.763588
0.702856
99.368582
10
1.93189
0.663211
99.646464
99.646464
99.812696
9
9
8
1.90504
1.90504
1.87843
0.643664
0.643664
0.624313
99.812696
1.87843
0.624313
99.906486
99.956192
99.956192
99.956192
99.980831
99.980831
99.992203
99.992203
99.992203
99.992203
99.997067
99.997067
99.997067
99.997067
99.998985
99.998985
99.998985
99.999679
99.999679
99.999679
99.999679
99.999679
99.999907
99.999907
99.999907
99.999976
99.999994
99.999994
99.999999
8
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
1.85205
1.82593
1.82593
1.82593
1.80008
1.80008
1.77450
1.77450
1.77450
1.77450
1.74920
1.74920
1.74920
1.74920
1.72421
1.72421
1.72421
1.69952
1.69952
1.69952
1.69952
1.69952
1.67517
1.67517
1.67517
1.65115
1.62749
1.62749
1.60421
0.605166
0.586232
0.586232
0.586232
0.567523
0.567523
0.549048
0.549048
0.549048
0.549048
0.530818
0.530818
0.530818
0.530818
0.512846
0.512846
0.512846
0.495144
0.495144
0.495144
0.495144
0.495144
0.477725
0.477725
0.477725
0.460602
0.443791
0.443791
0.427305
R%
99.999999
100.000000
100.000000
100.000000
100.000000
100.000000
100.000000
100.000000
100.000000
100.000000
100.000000
100.000000
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1.60421
1.58131
1.55882
1.53675
1.53675
1.51512
1.51512
1.49395
1.47327
1.45308
1.43342
1.34373
0.427305
0.411162
0.395376
0.379967
0.379967
0.364951
0.364951
0.350348
0.336175
0.322454
0.309203
0.250705
FDD
Gumbell (F-T-I)
a1
a2
0.64
9
0.93
0
1.33
=Nt/K= 204/51= 4
a=a1 e^(a2*(N^(-1,3)+k-lnv)=
30.98371217
v=N/Nt= 0.274509804
N=
sr = snor x sHs
N aos muetra K= 51
56
1,65sr (90%)
1,44sr (85%)
1,28sr (80%)
1.490049737
1.303733779
2.458582066
2.151160735
2.145671621
1.877376641
1.907263663
1.668779237
1.120265985
0.940684769
0.766567881
0.715736618
0.632832979
0.632832979
0.600399705
0.552647382
1.848438876
1.552129869
1.264837003
1.180965419
1.044174415
1.044174415
0.990659513
0.91186818
1.613183019
1.354586067
1.103857748
1.030660729
0.91127949
0.91127949
0.864575575
0.79581223
1.433940461
1.204076504
0.981206887
0.916142871
0.810026213
0.810026213
0.768511622
0.707388649
0.521474801
0.860433421
0.750923713
0.667487745
0.506105442
0.506105442
0.490889587
0.835073979
0.835073979
0.809967819
0.728791836
0.728791836
0.706881005
0.647814965
0.647814965
0.628338671
0.490889587
0.809967819
0.706881005
0.628338671
0.475834354
0.460947244
0.460947244
0.460947244
0.44623617
0.44623617
0.431709468
0.431709468
0.431709468
0.431709468
0.417375925
0.417375925
0.417375925
0.417375925
0.403244801
0.403244801
0.403244801
0.389325841
0.389325841
0.389325841
0.389325841
0.389325841
0.375629303
0.375629303
0.375629303
0.362165973
0.348947178
0.348947178
0.335984799
0.785126684
0.760562953
0.760562953
0.760562953
0.73628968
0.73628968
0.712320621
0.712320621
0.712320621
0.712320621
0.688670277
0.688670277
0.688670277
0.688670277
0.665353921
0.665353921
0.665353921
0.642387637
0.642387637
0.642387637
0.642387637
0.642387637
0.61978835
0.61978835
0.61978835
0.597573856
0.575762843
0.575762843
0.554374918
0.685201469
0.663764032
0.663764032
0.663764032
0.642580084
0.642580084
0.621661633
0.621661633
0.621661633
0.621661633
0.601021333
0.601021333
0.601021333
0.601021333
0.580672513
0.580672513
0.580672513
0.560629211
0.560629211
0.560629211
0.560629211
0.560629211
0.540906197
0.540906197
0.540906197
0.521519001
0.502483936
0.502483936
0.48381811
0.609067973
0.590012473
0.590012473
0.590012473
0.571182297
0.571182297
0.552588118
0.552588118
0.552588118
0.552588118
0.534241185
0.534241185
0.534241185
0.534241185
0.516153345
0.516153345
0.516153345
0.498337076
0.498337076
0.498337076
0.498337076
0.498337076
0.480805508
0.480805508
0.480805508
0.463572446
0.446652388
0.446652388
0.430060542
0.335984799
0.323291277
0.310879616
0.298763368
0.298763368
0.286956617
0.286956617
0.275473944
0.264330372
0.253541291
0.243122359
0.197126266
0.554374918
0.533430607
0.512951366
0.492959557
0.492959557
0.473478418
0.473478418
0.454532008
0.436145113
0.41834313
0.401151892
0.325258339
0.48381811
0.465539439
0.447666647
0.430219249
0.430219249
0.413217529
0.413217529
0.396682479
0.380635735
0.365099459
0.350096197
0.283861823
0.430060542
0.413812835
0.397925908
0.382417111
0.382417111
0.36730447
0.36730447
0.352606648
0.338342876
0.324532853
0.311196619
0.25232162
Weibull C=2
as empiricas para la desviacin tpica normalizada nor (Goda 1988)

Weibull C=0,75
Weibull C=1
Weibull C=1,4
1.65
1.92
2.05
11.4
11.4
11.4
11.4
-0.63
0.69
0.3
0.4
0.8
1.15
0.9
0.72
0.2
0.75
1.4
REGIMEN EXTREMA ESCALAR DE TEMPORALES AJUSTADO

F.D.D.WEIBULL - C=2 Y BANDAS DE CONFIANZA DEL +
1009016
AJUSTE MEDIANTE F.D.D. WEIBULL --C=2
Muestra de las Hs Mximas Anuales 1958-2008 del Punto W-S-1009016

16
14
12
Hs (m)
10
0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Variable reducida y = -ln (
REGIMEN ESTREMAL ESCALAR DE TEMPORALES AJUSTADO

F.D.D. WEIBULL C=2, DEL PUNTO WANA-SIMAR
CONFIANZADEL +-90
CONFIANZADEL +-90
Banda de Confiaza del -90%
16
14
12
Hs (m)
10
8
6
4
2
0
0
20000
40000
60000
LAR DE TEMPORALES AJUSTADO MEDIANTE LA

DE CONFIANZA DEL +-90% DEL PUNTO WANA-SIMAR
1009016
D.D. WEIBULL --C=2
mas Anuales 1958-2008 del Punto W-S-1009016
8.0
10.0
12.0
le reducida y = -ln (1-F(Hs))
DE TEMPORALES AJUSTADO MEDIANTE LA

-SIMAR 1009016 Y BANDAS DE
IANZADEL +-90%
14.0
IANZADEL +-90%
12
10
Hs (m)
8
6
4
2
0
0
60000
80000
o de Retorno: Tr (aos)
100000
120000
REGIMEN ESTREMAL ESCALAR DE TEMPORALES AJUSTADO ME

LA F.D.D. WEIBULL C=2, DEL PUNTO WANA
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
EMPORALES AJUSTADO MEDIANTE

UNTO WANA-SIMAR 1009016
80000
torno: Tr (aos)
100000
120000

Reet 1009016 Gumbell y Weibull Ivº Ceipc

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REGIMEN EXTREMAL ESCALAR DEL PUERTO DE GARACHICO

RELACIN DE TEMPORALES MXIMOS ANUALES ENTRE

DATOS DE LA "MUESTRA " DE TEMPORALES MXIMOS ANUALES

REGIMEN EXTREMAL ESCALAR DE TEMPRALES DEL PUNTO WANA-SIMAR

F.D.D.: GUMBEL (AS

"Posicin de dibujo" o Probabilidad de No excedencia

Datos de la Muestra y Posicin de dibujo

RALES DEL PUNTO WANA-SIMAR 1009016

METODO DE LOS MXIMOS ANUALES.

F.D.D.: GUMBEL (ASINTOTA I)

Posicion de dibujo de la muestra de 51 aos de Hs maximas anuales

Ajuste de la muestra de Hs Mximas Anuales entre 1958 y

Variable reducida: y = -ln(-ln(F(Hs))

LOS MXIMOS ANUALES.

Clculos para ajuste de la F.D.D.

de 51 aos de Hs maximas anuales

1958 y 2012 por la F.D.D.

1958 y 2008 mediante la F.D.D. GUMBELL

s entre 1958 y 2008 mediante la F.D.D. GUMBELL)

Ajuste por Mnimos Cuadrados

Ajuste mediante Mtodo mnimos cuadra

Media y Desviacin Estandar

)A= yi.Hsi yi.)yi.Hsi

TEST DE BONDAD DEL AJUSTE

AJUSTE MEDIANTE LA F.D.D. GUMBEL (Asintota I) POR EL

Var. Reducida: y=-ln(

Ajuste mediante Mtodo mnimos cuadrados calculao analiticamente

Media y Desviacin Estandar

. GUMBEL (Asintota I) POR EL METODO DE LOS

58-2008 en el punto W-S- 1009016

Ajuste FDD GUMBEL

Ecuacin de la F.D.D. ajustada y Tr

Calc.para Graficos Hs vs "y" y Hs vs Tr y B

Ecuacin de la F.D.D. ajustada y Tr

El "Tr" es propio de cada "costa" y de su Clima Martimo

En abstracto, NO est vinculado a "L" = 50

Calc.para Graficos Hs vs "y" y Hs vs Tr y Bandas de Confianza

snor = 1/N Raiz( 1,0 + a(yr-c+lnv)2)

Muestra Hs Mximos Anuales 1958-2008 d

Banda de Confianza de +90%

normalizada nor (Goda 1988)

REGIMEN EXTREMAL ESCALAR DE TEMPORALES AJUSTE MEDIANTE FDD GUMBEL

Regresion Lineal Ajuste F.D.D. Gumbel

Banda de Confianza de +90%

Banda de Confianza de -90%

REGIMEN EXTREMAL ESCALAR DE TEMPORALES DEL PUNTO WANA

TE MEDIANTE FDD GUMBEL

al Ajuste F.D.D. Gumbel

REGIMEN EXTREMAL ESCA

Muestra de Temporales Mximos 1958-200

REGIMEN EXTREMAL ESCALAR DE TEMPORALES DEL PUNTO WANA

Ajuste mediante la FDD GUMBEL

REGIMEN EXTREMAL ESCALAR DE TEMPRALES DEL PUNTO WANA-SIMAR 1

(*) F(Hs) = 1- {(i- 0.2-0.27/c)/(N+0.20+0.23/c)}

S DEL PUNTO WANA-SIMAR 1009016

METODO DE LOS MXIMOS ANUALES.

Posiciones de dibujo de la Muestra de 51 aos de Hs Mximas Anuales

Clculos para ajuste de la F.D.D.Weibu

por iteracin en exel dando valores a "

emporales: 2 - 1,4 - 1 - 0,75

aos de Hs Mximas Anuales

estra de 51 aos de Hs Mximas Anuales

Clculos para ajuste de la F.D.D.Weibull