Currencies Daily Report

Monday| April 15, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130 Saif Mukadam Research Analyst saif.mukadam@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136 Anish Vyas - Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| April 15, 2013

Highlights
India's Industrial Production increased to 0.6 percent in February. US Core Retail Sales declined by 0.4 percent in the month of March. European Industrial Production increased by 0.4 percent in February. US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment fell to 72.3-mark in April. US Core Retail Sales declined by 0.4 percent in March as against a rise of 1 percent in February. Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.6 percent in last month from rise of 0.7 percent in February. Retail Sales dropped by 0.4 percent in March as compared to rise of 1 percent a month ago. Core PPI remained unchanged at 0.2 percent in the month of March. Prelim University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment declined by 6.3 points to 72.3-mark in April with respect to rise of 78.6-level in March. Business Inventories was at 0.1 percent in February as against a increase of 0.9 percent in prior month. India's Industrial Production increased to 0.6 percent in February as against a rise of 2.4 percent in January. Manufacturing Output grew at slow pace of 2.2 percent in February from earlier increase of 2.7 percent a month ago. Consumer Price Index (CPI) was at 10.39 percent in March as compared to rise of 10.91 percent in February.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Apr13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Apr13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Mar13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5528.6 18242.6 14865.06 1588.9 15780.1 1924.2 58497.8 13485.1 91.29 1501.00 2632.20 7428.75 102.09 Prev. day -1.2 -1.6 0.0 -0.3 -1.5 -1.3 0.2 -0.5 -2.4 -4.0 -4.9 -2.2 0.0

as on April 12, 2013 WoW -0.4 -1.1 2.1 2.3 3.5 -0.2 6.3 -0.1 -1.5 -4.5 -3.2 0.1 0.9 MoM -5.9 -6.1 2.4 2.3 -1.7 -2.2 2.7 6.7 -2.3 -6.5 -8.7 -5.3 0.2 YoY 6.2 -0.3 14.5 14.5 6.1 0.0 -5.8 41.6 -11.9 -10.6 -19.0 -9.5 0.0

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.2 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Additionally, favorable economic data from US and Euro Zone coupled with expectations of stimulus measures from major global central bankers exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, US equities traded on a positive note which also acted as a negative factor for the DX. The currency touched a weekly low of 82.14 and closed at 82.406 on Friday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR April13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX) 82.41 54.51 54.68 54.69 Prev. day 0.1 -0.4 0.05 0.07 WoW -0.2 0.5 -0.75 -0.75

as on April 12, 2013 MoM -0.3 -0.9 0.57 0.57 YoY 3.7 -6.0 5.75 5.77

Dollar/INR
On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.5 percent. The currency appreciated on account of countrys industrial production and CPI data which came on a favorable note as against the expectations. Additionally, upbeat global market sentiments coupled with selling dollars from exporters and banks also supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of outflow of foreign funds and dollar demand from importers. The currency touched a high of 54.25 in the last week and closed at 54.51 against dollar on Friday. For the month of April 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.42.0 crores ($7.13 million) as on 12th April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.55,580.40 crores ($10,302.90 million) till 12th April 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. However, sharp downside in the currency will be cushioned as a result of countrys Trade Balance and Whole Price Index (WPI) expected to come on a positive note.

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR April13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for April 15, 2013 Support 54.50/54.30 Resistance 54.90/55.05

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| April 15, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated by 0.9 percent in the last week on the back of optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Further, favorable industrial production from Euro Zone, German and French supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of decline in investors confidence. German Wholesale Price Index (WPI) declined by 0.2 percent in March as against a rise of 0.1 percent in February. European Industrial Production increased by 0.4 percent in February from earlier decline of 0.6 percent a month ago. The Euro touched a high of 1.3138 in the last week and closed at 1.3111 against dollar on Friday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in DX. Further expectation of negative economic data from Europe may add downside pressure. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR April13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 71.20/71.00 71.70/71.95 valid for April 15, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR April 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3111 71.55 71.4 71.4 Prev. day 0.1 -0.5 -0.25 -0.27

as on April 12, 2013 WoW 0.9 -0.4 0.24 0.22 MoM 0.3 -1.5 0.90 0.88 YoY -0.6 -5.6 5.08 5.08

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) 1.5341 83.799 84.02 Prev. day -0.27 0.292 0.46

as on April 12, 2013

GBP/INR
On a weekly basis, Sterling Pound appreciated marginally by 0.1 percent on the back of upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Additionally, favorable manufacturing and industrial production data supported an upside in the currency. UKs Conference Board (CB) Leading Index increased by 0.4 percent in February as against a rise of 0.2 percent a month earlier. The Sterling Pound touched a weekly high of 1.5411 and closed at 1.5341 against dollar on Friday. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments. Further, strength in DX may exert downside pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR April 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for April 15, 2013 Support 83.80/83.50 Resistance 84.20/84.45 GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR April13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR April 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

WoW 0.1 -0.32 0.25

MoM 1.5 3.84 3.87

YoY -3.9 2.50 1.94

84.02

0.44

0.25

3.89

1.95

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| April 15, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated by 0.9 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of favorable machinery orders and industry activity data from the country. The Yen touched a weekly low of 99.94 and closed at 98.38 against dollar on Friday. Outlook For the intra-day, we expect yen to appreciate taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR April 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for April 15, 2013 Support 54.85/54.50 Resistance 55.45/55.75
Source: Telequote

as on April 12, 2013 Last 98.38 0.555 55.16 55.16 Prev day -1.3 1.46 0.42 0.39 WoW 0.9 -1.23 -3.78 -3.76 MoM 3.3 -1.77 -2.86 -2.84 YoY 21.6 -12.31 -13.55 -13.57

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR April13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR April13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on April 15, 2013

Indicator BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks GDP q/y Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y Industrial Production y/y NBS Press Conference BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks Empire State Manufacturing Index TIC Long-Term Purchases Country Japan China China China China Japan US US Time (IST) 6:00am 7:30am 7:30am 7:30am 7:30am 11:45am 6:00pm 6:30pm Actual 7.7% 20.9% 8.9% Forecast 8.0% 21.3% 10.1% 7.2 41.3B Previous 7.9% 21.2% 9.9% 9.2 25.7B Impact High High Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium

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