POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGES ON THE INUNDATION RISK LEVELS IN A DAM BREAK SCENARIO

- A CASE OF ROSS BARNETT RESERVOIR FAILURE ON THE DOWNSTREAM AREAS OF HINDS AND RANKIN COUNTY

by

Sudha Yerramilli

A Dissertation

Submitted to the Division of Graduate Studies Jackson State University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy

December 2009

Major Subject: Urban and Regional Planning

POTENTIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGES ON THE INUNDATION RISK LEVELS IN A DAM BREAK SCENARIO - A CASE OF ROSS BARNETT RESERVOIR FAILURE ON THE DOWNSTREAM AREAS OF
HINDS AND RANKIN COUNTY

A Dissertation by Sudha Yerramilli

Approved:

________________________________ Committee Chair Person Dr.Mukesh Kumar

___________________________ Committee Member Dr.Otha Burton

________________________________ Committee Member Dr.Joan Wesley

___________________________ Committee Member Dr.P.C.Yuan

________________________________ Committee Member Dr.Venkatesh Merwade

___________________________ Academic College Dean Dr.Mario Azevedo

December 2009
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF TABLESviii LIST OF FIGURES.x GLOSSARY OF TERMS.xiv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.....xiv ABSTRACT CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION...1 Climate Change and Flood Hazards......1 River flooding....4 Coastal flooding.....4 Flash flooding....4 Status of Flood Hazards in Mississippi.....5 Pearl River flood of 1979..6 Flood Hazards due to Dam Break..9 Purpose of the Research.......10 Information Tool to facilitate Urban Planning.10 Significance of Research to the field of Planning11 Planning and Environmental Hazards......13

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Disaster Planning.....14 Hazard Mitigation....17 Hazard Assessment..18 Background Information......21 Historical Information of Ross Barnett Reservoir...21 Statement of the Problem....24 Research Questions.....27 Type of the Research...27 Expected Results.....28 Limitations of the Study..28 Organization of the Written Report.....28 Chapter Summary....30 2. PLANNING SUPPORT SYSTEMS-LITERATURE REVIEW.....31 Complex nature of floods and Flood risk assessment tools.31 Significance of Flood planning support system...34 History of Planning Support System...37 Systems view of Planning...38 Types of Planning Support System..40 Why should we use Planning Support system.41 Advantages of Flood Planning Support system...42 Urban Planning and Flood Planning Support System.43 Significance of Geospatial technologies in Planning Support System.........................................................................................46
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Communities using Flood Planning Support Systems.48 Development of flood information tools- FEMAS contribution....52 Significance of the present research over FEMAs contribution.....53 Status of Flood Information tools in Hinds County....55 Chapter Summary....56 3. METHODOLOGY....58 Research problem and related flood simulation models.58 Description of the HEC HMS and HEC RAS models....59 HEC HMS Model to estimate inflows for various rainfall events.59 HEC RAS Model to simulate flood for various inflows61 Description of Geospatial Technologies GIS and ArcIMS.64 Research Design 66 Data Collection......67 Description of Steps Involved ...67 Study Limitations...70 Chapter Summary..70 4. DATA ANALYSIS...71 Determination of the Precipitation events for simulations71 Development of HEC HMS Model73 Basin component using HEC GeoHMS.73 Preprocessing of the data...74 Meteorological component....83 Control Specifications...84 Description of the simulation Scenarios84
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Calibration of HEC HMS model85 Calibration of HEC RAS model..88 Development of HEC RAS model...89 Preprocessing of Geometric data using HEC GEORAS..89 Simulations in HEC RAS....92 Determination of Dam breach Parameters...93 Post processing of HEC RAS results...95 Development of Flood planning support system.....95 Overview of planning and developmental activities....95 The cultural and historical values of the region...96 Social and Infrastructural facilities of the region....98 Current planning and developmental activities..102 Dissemination of integrated maps using ArcIMS.....105 Chapter Summary..106 5. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION..108 Introduction...108 Hazard Identification....111 Spatial Extent....111 Depth Grids...116 Vulnerability Assessment..125 Impact on cultural and historical values....126 Impact on social and infrastructural facilities....130 Impact of current planning and developmental activities..159
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Identification of Vulnerable blocks...163 Flood Planning Support System using Arc IMS....167 Chapter Summary..........................................................................169 6. CONCLUSIONS..171 Implications to Urban Planning.....171 Further Research....172 Conclusions....173 LIST OF REFERENCES......177 APPENDICES....188

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LIST OF TABLES

Table

Page

3.1.Data required for a steady flow flood simulation...63 3.2.Data required for an unsteady flow or a dam break flood simulation....64 4.1.Rainfall events for the simulation of dam break induced floods....73 4.2.Inflow obtain by HEC HMS simulations for the determined rainfall events.84 4.3.Description of scenarios for the determined rainfall events...85 4.4. Difference between Modeled Inflow and USGS inflow87 4.5.Inflows determined for the scenarios to be simulated using HEC RAS 88 4.6.Scenarios to be simulated with corresponding inflows ..94 4.7.Projects in progress in downtown Jackson...103 5.1.Scenarios to be considered for the discussion..109 5.2.Amount of Area inundated in the downstream of Ross Barnett Reservoir..115 5.3.Area under inundation in the Hinds County in a Ross Barnett Reservoir failure...115 5.4.Maximum depth for each scenario.......120 5.5.Description of the zones in the floodplains based on water depth...120 5.6.Depth grids of the scenarios classified based on water depths.....121 5.7.Depth grids of the scenarios classified based on water depths in Hinds County...122 5.8.Change in the depth grids with scenario-1 as the base inundation area....124
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5.9.

Number of population at risk in the downstream and Hinds County region133

5.10. Number of housing units at risk in the downstream and Hinds County region.......136 5.11. Length of roads getting inundated in Ross Barnett Reservoir failure...139 5.12. Length of roads getting inundated in Ross Barnett Reservoir failure in Hinds County..142 5.13. Number of various key facilities under inundation zone.148 5.14. Number of Inundated Key facilities in Hinds County.151 5.15. Area of land use categories under inundation (area in acres)..156 5.16. Percentage change in the land use area inundated ..156 5.17. Area of land use categories under inundation in Hinds County (area in acres)...157 5.18. Percentage change in the land use area inundated in Hinds County...158 5.19. Number of blocks under various vulnerable zones in Hinds County.167

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1.1. 1.2.

Page Status of EAP for High Hazard dams in Mississippi8 Map Showing Spatial Location of High Hazard dams in the state of Mississippi........9 Flood information tool used by Humboldt County..49 Information tool used by City of Austin..50 Information tool used by City of Boulder51 Flow of process in a Rainfall-runoff simulation using HEC Geo HMS and HEC HMS....61 Flow of preprocessing and post processing of the data using HEC Geo RAS.....62 Flow Chart showing the methodology followed the study..66 Intensity of the rainfall events after 1970 in the Central Mississippi region...72 DEM of the study region (upstream of Ross Barnett Reservoir).74 Catchment Polygon with Drainage line...78 Point of interest upstream of Ross Barnett reservoir..79 Soil and Land use data for the study region...80 CN Grid obtained for the study region...80 HMS Consistency checking...81 Basin component Exported to HEC HMS.83
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2.1 2.2 2.3 3.1

3.2

3.3 4.1

4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8

4.9

Meteorological model configured in HECMS...83

4.10 Successful computation of HEC HMS simulation.84 4.11 Rainfall-Inflow trend line at Ross Barnett Reservoir.86 4.12 TIN of the study region..89 4.13 Land Use map of the study region..91 4.14 Geometric file in HEC RAS...92 4.15 Successful implementation of steady flow simulation...93 4.16 Successful HEC RAS dam breach simulation....94 4.17 Historic districts in the City of Jackson..97 4.18 Population and housing units at block level in Hinds, Rankin and Madison County, MS....98-99 4.19 Major transportation routes through Hinds, Rankin and Madison County, MS.100 4.20 Key facilities in Hinds, Rankin and Madison Counties, MS.101 4.21 Land use data for the study region.102 4.22 Arc IMS web-based tool....106 5.1 Spatial extent of inundation at the downstream region due to Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under four scenarios...112-113 Change in spatial extent under average and PMP +100% rainfall event..114 Depth grid of inundation at the downstream region due to Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under four scenarios...117-118 Change in the depth grid under average and PMP+100% rainfall event......119 Percentage change in the risk levels compared with Average rainfall scenario..122 Percentage change in the risk levels compared with average rainfall scenario for Hinds County...123
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5.2 5.3

5.4

5.5

5.6

5.7 5.8

Percentage of inundated area under depth categories....124 Flood waters at Downtown Jackson in Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under average rainfall event ....127 Ross Barnett Reservoir Flood waters at the intersection of Lake Land drive and I-55 under an average rainfall event................................128

5.9

5.10 Inundation of the historic districts at Downtown Jackson due to Ross Barnett Reservoir failure in average rainfall event.129 5.11 Inundation of the historic districts at Downtown Jackson due to Ross Barnett Reservoir failure in PMP event..129 5.12 Spatial distribution of population at risk under four scenarios...131-132 5.13 Spatial distribution of housing units at risk under four scenarios..134-135 5.14 Inundated roads under four scenarios.....137-138 5.15 Change in the risk levels in terms of length and Depth at Lake Land Drive under four scenarios........140-141 5.16 Spatial representation of inundation on I-55 near down town region under four scenarios....143-144 5.17 Spatial location of key facilities under four scenarios....146-147 5.18 Spatial representation of flood waters near Jackson International airport under four scenarios...149-150 5.19 Comparison of the inundated key facilities in Hinds County with the total inundated facilities....152 5.20 Inundated land use categories in the down stream region of Ross Barnett Reservoir under four scenarios..154-155 5.21 Most vulnerable land use categories.157 5.22 Most vulnerable land use categories in Hinds County..158 5.23 Spatial representation of flood waters near downtown region under four scenarios.....160-161 5.24 Location of Jackson Convention Complex in the downtown region....162
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5.25 Spatial location of the blocks under various vulnerable zones in Hinds County under four scenarios..165-166 5.26 Web-based flood planning support system developed for the Ross Barnett Reservoir failure..168

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GLOSSARY OF TERMS

1. AGREE: An implementation method to burn streams on DEM that was developed by Center for research in Water resources at the University of Texas at Austin. 2. Arc GIS: Geographical Information System 3. ASDSO: Association of State Dam Safety Officials 4. DEFRA: Department for Environment, Food and Rural affairs 5. DEM: Digital Elevation Model 6. EPA: Environmental Protection Agency 7. ESRI: Environmental Systems Research Institute 8. FEMA: Federal Emergency Management Agency 9. Fil DEM: Fill Digital Elevation Model 10. GAO: US Government Accountability Office 11. HEC GeoHMS: Hydrological Engineering System Geospatial Hydrologic Modeling System 12. HEC GeoRAS: Hydrological Engineering Center Geospatial River analysis system 13. HEC HMS: Hydrological Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System 14. HEC RAS: Hydrological Engineering Center River Analysis System 15. IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 16. MDEQ: Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality 17. MSEMA: Missouri State Emergency Management Agency
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18. NFIP: National Flood Insurance Program 19. NHD: National Hydrography Dataset 20. NIWA: New Zealand Institute of Water and Atmospheric research 21. NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 22. PMP: Probable Maximum Precipitation 23. UNEP: United Nations Environmetnal Program 24. UNESCO: United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization 25. USACE: United States Army Corps of Engineers 26. USGCRP: United States Global Change Research Program 27. USGS: United States Geological survey

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

There are innumerable people I have to thank for supporting, inspiring, guiding, motivating, driving and even pushing me to work for this dissertation. First and foremost, this work would not have been possible without the expert guidance of my esteemed advisor, Dr. Mukesh Kumar. His written comments have always been extremely perceptive, helpful, and oriented me in the right direction. My research for this dissertation was made more efficient and efficacious with the valuable inputs given by my committee members, Dr.Otha Burton, Dr.Joan Wesley, Dr.P.C.Yuan and Dr.Venkatesh Merwade. I would like to record my appreciation for the Department of Urban and Regional Planning, JSU, for providing graduate assistance ship along with tuition fee for 3 years of my studies. I acknowledge with gratitude the support extended by Dr.Shahrouz Aliabadi, Director, Northrop Grumman Center, JSU, and thank him letting me use the resources while doing my research work. I am grateful to all my colleagues and friends whose constant encouragement and support helped me in completing this dissertation. I am especially grateful to my father, Dr. Anjaneyulu, whose constant encouragement, support and guidance in various ways during my course of study has made me feel confident and set me on the right track. I would like to dedicate this dissertation to my husband, Mr.Kaladhar Bapu, who walked in step with me through my academic journey, and my little son, Dhruv, whose definition of education and understanding of the value and importance of academic pursuit, is quite beyond his years and beyond my comprehension. I cherish the love, affection and unstinting emotional backing they gave me during my work. Thank you all.

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ABSTRACT The dynamic nature of urban planning requires the integration of multidisciplinary information to facilitate the decision making and implementation processes. For efficient participation from all the stakeholders, dissemination of information plays a crucial role. Development of applications can act as information tools through which authorities as well as the public understand the current situation of their communities and contribute to the planning process with invaluable inputs and feedbacks. Analysis of spatial and statistical information in terms of forecasting, modeling and evaluation of present and future scenarios can assist planning with crucial information. This dissertation proposal focuses on developing a web application using Arc IMS, where the information about flood inundation risk levels at the downstream of the Ross Barnett Reservoir at various climatic events (different precipitation levels) will be made accessible to the decision making authorities and public. The climatic changes, with increase in temperature and rainfall, have disastrous consequences that impact the physical systems, infrastructure and social organization in many ways. Floods/flash floods due to dam breaks can be categorized as the highimpact events as they involve multiple consequences. The damage can be far more severe and accumulative to the State of Mississippi with 277 high hazard dams, 67 significant hazard dams across the State, and with a prediction of 5-25% increase in rainfall from the last century. As flooding is associated with rainfall levels, this study

aims at assessing the potential impact of climate change on various precipitation events on the inundation risk levels in the Ross Barnett Reservoir dam break scenario. The impact of the failure of this high hazard dam (which is nearing its design life time of 50 years in 2010) may involve disastrous consequences with the Mississippi state capital (the City of Jackson) located in the immediate downstream region. The average precipitation event calculated from100-years historical data is 5.39 inches. An increase of 10% and 25% on the average would be 5.929 and 6.7375 inches respectively. The PMP event has occurred in the month of April 1991 with a recorded rainfall of 16.75 inches. As the flood simulations using PMP event can capture the 10% and 25% increase on the average rainfall events, the study aims to simulate the worst case scenarios (that could happen due to climate change effects) and an increase of 50% and 100% on the PMP event is included. For the purpose of the study, inundation maps are generated by simulating the dam break model HEC RAS/GEO-RAS for various scenarios and the output is integrated with the thematic layers of the study region by overlaying the inundation map using Arc GIS. The Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under the impact of climate changes affects the downstream region in terms of spatial extent and depth grids till the end of Hinds County. While the possible least scenario in an average rainfall event itself has tremendous impact on the downstream, the PMP rainfall event almost equals a 200-year flood magnitude. With the PMP event been already experienced by the study region (in April 1991), the scenario of the Ross Barnett Reservoir failure in this event bears high possibility and utmost significance.

As the developmental activities in the downstream region, including state capital, Jackson, are bound to NFIP generated 100-year flood maps, the impact of Ross Barnett Reservoir failure proves to be far more destructive. The flood maps (from average rainfall event to PMP+100% event) obtained from the simulations reveal the fact that the impact of Ross Barnett Reservoir failure on the cultural/historical, economical, social, infrastructural amenities can disturb the interconnected functionalities of the state capital. As the downtown region is surrounded by flood waters in all the four rainfall scenarios, administrative and commercial functionalities can come to a stand still. The results reveal the fact that the basic intentions of planning or developmental strategies are to build safer communities by locating developments away from the hazard-prone areas. Identifying vulnerable areas under various possible scenarios plays an important role in the decision-making process. The increase in the vulnerability levels that might occur due to climate change affects in the downstream of Ross Barnett Reservoir can help the local government to improve the inclusive nature of environmental factors to their focus on achieving sustainable development. Finally, the study developed an Arc IMS web application where the information about the inundation risk levels at various precipitation scenarios at the Ross Barnett Reservoir are made accessible so that the information can be interpreted and utilized quickly and easily by the decision making authorities and public.

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION Climate Change and Flood Hazards The earths climate is predicted to change due to altered levels of chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of greenhouse gases -primarily carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide (EPA, 1998). Carbon dioxide (co2) alters the radiative balance and tends to warm the atmosphere. Since the industrial revolution, the concentration of green house gases in the atmosphere has been increasing. The concentration of carbon dioxide, which was constant at 280 parts per million (ppm) for over 800 years (in the pre industrial era), started shooting up to 380 parts per million to current day with an increase of about 30% (Dave et.al. 2006). These concentrations can be unanimously attributed to the growth in population and their energy-intensive consumption per person (Anthony et.al. 2006) as the co2 releases by the vegetation and organic matter had been in balance in the pre-industrial era. Human beings, with their energy-intensive activities, accelerated the rise in the greenhouse gas concentrations much above their regular levels; this resulted in the warming up of the temperatures through increases in downward infrared radiation. The rise in temperature enhances the retaining capacity of air to hold water vapor generated

through the evaporation process (EPA, 1989). Thus, with an intensified moisture capacity, a warmer atmosphere will result in a rise in the precipitation levels. Smith (1996), in the book Environmental Hazard, states that there is mounting evidence that global climate change will exacerbate the environmental hazards that may result in the outbreak of floods and hurricanes. Bruce, Burton and Egener (1999) assert that in spite of plans to reduce green house gas emissions and levels, the climate change will continue to occur and bring increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather related events along with their associate disasters. Significant increases in precipitation have occurred in United States. The precipitation has gone up by 5-10% on average over the last century (USGCRP, 2000). Climatological research over the past two decades makes clear that earths climate will change in response to atmospheric greenhouse gas accumulation (Anthony et al, 2006). According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), over the 20th century, the observed scenario in the United States in terms of temperature and precipitation changes was quite higher than the rest of the world (IPCC, 2007). The predicted temperature changes in central North America are higher than the global mean values (Easterling, 1996), because of higher latitudes which can be revealed from the fact that the central USA witnessed significant changes in temperature and rainfall. According to the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) report (EPA, 1998), over the last century the precipitation levels in Mississippi have increased by about 20% over the mean annual rainfall and are predicted to rise by 525% in the coming century throughout the state.

The predicted changes in temperature and precipitation bring adverse effects on water resources, agriculture, ecosystems, and human health (IPCC, 2007) as they support the emergence of diseases, their development and longevity. The climatic changes have disastrous consequences that impact the physical systems, infrastructure and social organization in many ways. Floods can also be categorized as high-impact events as they involve multiple consequences such as disruptions in the transportation and communication sectors, property damage and prolonged submergence of agricultural lands, wetlands etc. The disaster effects are greatest for floods than any other calamity. Of all the natural calamities, floods can be described as catastrophic events whose impact lasts for a long period of time. Flood can be defined as a body of water which rises to overflow land, which is not normally submerged (Pielke, 2002) and occur due to seasonal or torrential rains associated with tropical storms that later drain into river basins and fill them with an abundance of water (MDEQ, 2004). A flood, as defined by Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA), is any general or temporary condition of partial or complete inundation of normally dry land areas from the overflow of inland or tidal waters or the unusual and rapid accumulation or runoff of surface waters from any source (MEMA, 2006). The United States Geological Survey (USGS) describes a flood as relatively high stream flows overtopping the natural or artificial banks and causes or threatens damage (USGS, 2006). The areas adjacent to these natural or artificial banks, termed as floodplains (SEMA, 2007), carry excess floodwater during rapid runoff. A 100year flood refers to the area in this floodplain that is subject to a one percent or

greater chance of flooding in any given year, based on historical records. These floodplains have a high probability of having health/safety hazards with polluted resources and deteriorated buildings as the flood currents with lateral forces can demolish buildings and erosion can undermine bridge foundations and footings leading to the collapse of structures (Charles, 2000). Adding to this, the infrastructural damage such as collapse of sanitary/sewer, transportation systems poses greater risk for the region to recover from the aftermath. Along with the disruptions in the human-built systems, it is the invaluable ecological loss such as prolonged submergence of agricultural lands, deeply eroded channels and loss of topsoil that poses a serious threat. In this context, William and Richard (1998) portray the consequences of flooding as a disturbance that disrupts the ecosystem, community, population structure and changes resources, substrate availability. According to MEMA (2002), the State of Mississippi is vulnerable to various types of flooding that are described below: River flooding River flooding occurs when rivers, streams, drains, and lakes overflow due to excessive rainfall, rapid ice, or snowmelt (SEMA, 2007). MEMA (2002) states that river flooding occurs in all the 10 river basins of Mississippi and attributes the causes to elimination of ground cover on drainage slopes as a result of tree cutting, land clearing or inadequately sized drainage structures. Coastal flooding Coastal flooding occurs as a result of abnormally high tides, storm surge, heavy rains associated with high winds, tropical storms and hurricanes (MEMA,

2002). Coastal counties of Mississippi with various bays and lands bordering the Mississippi Sound are prone to coastal flooding. Flash flooding Flash floods are the most dangerous kind of floods with incredible speed and unpredictability. Flash flooding is characterized by the rapid accumulation or runoff of surface waters from any source (Missouri State Emergency Management Agency, 2007). Most flood-related deaths result from this type of event as they produce rapid rises in water levels and have devastating flow velocities. The majority of flash flood occurrences can be attributed to dams being breached or overtopped (Charles, 2000). Dams and levees, which are built to withstand a certain degree of risk of flood occurrence, may fail when that degree is exceeded. The tremendous energy of water behind these failed dams becomes a flash flood that is catastrophic to life and properties downstream. Of all the types of floods, flash floods due to dam failures can be said as the most dangerous events (Monirul et.al, 2003) as they move with fast speeds and with little or no warnings. Status of Flood Hazards in Mississippi In United States, flash floods are the leading cause of the weather related mortality (Khairy, 2000) and the gulf coast region is especially subject to extreme floods. The state of Mississippi ranks 8th (FEMA, 2006) and stands among the worst flood-hit states in the nation with a repetitive number of flash floods occurring from short and intense rainfall events.

Pearl River Flood of 1979 Pearl River flood of 1979, also known as Easter Flood of 1979 was the most catastrophic flood that the City of Jackson had ever experienced in its history. According to US Army Corps of Engineers report(US Army Corps of Engineers, 2004), the 1979 flood flows surpassed the records of past flood events causing more than $200 million damage. The extent of damage was severe as serious disruptions occurred to transportation and communications that blocked the city for number of weeks. The 1979 flood was estimated as a 200 year flood event that left the city of Jackson with devastating damages. Rutherford (1982) describes these damages as a public policy disaster as the increase in the property damage occurred due to the development in the floodplain since the previous major flood in 1961. Rutherford says that these developmental policies were encouraged by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers flood control levees project completed in 1968 which proved unreliable (Rutherford, 1982). These flood control levees in Jackson were designed for a 100year flood flow of 103,000 cubic feet per second and could not resist the peak flow in 1979 which was a 200-year flood and as a result, the Pearl River flooded the fairgrounds and coliseum as well as parts of downtown. The destructive consequences of 1979 flood reveal the necessity of preparing flood inundation mapping for a possible high magnitude flows that might occur in future and thus helps in making informed decisions to regulate developmental activities in the floodplains. In the years past, floods due to dam failures across the country have caused the deaths of thousands of people and billions of dollars in property damage. In the past two years, more than 50 dams in the U.S. have failed (ASDSO, 2006).

Association of State Dam Safety Officials (ASDSO) report states that the nations most recent death attributed to dam failure (Windy Hill Lake) occurred in Harrison County, Mississippi in 2002. The out break of a high hazard dam in a flooding event can cause severe devastation in the downstream regions in terms of loss of lives and damage to infrastructure and property. About 12 significant flood events between 1849 and 2001 in Mississippi turned out to be expensive in terms of number of lives lost and property damage. According to National Climate Data Center (NCDC) report, the State of Mississippi stands 7th among the top fifteen flood fatality states in United States with 187 lives lost during 1960-1996 (Richard, 1996). According to University Corporation of Atmospheric Research report (UCAR, 2002 ), there was a consistent increase in the property loss due to flood damage in the state of Mississippi with 3.13million of current US Dollars in 1953 to 272.701 million in 2003 (Pielke et al, 2002). Bruce (1999) says that the evidence of such disaster loss trends at a regional level can help in explaining the severity and necessity of mitigation plans. Mitigation effort is an imperative in this rising trend in terms of intensity and frequency of hazards and their subsequent disasters and in this context. Tuncer (2007) emphasizes that the application of structural and non-structural tools, to a large extent, can help in minimizing the flood impacts. According to the report by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA, 2007), Mississippi regulations require a dam owner of a high hazard or significant hazard potential classification dam to prepare updates and periodically test an Emergency Action Plan (EAP) with inundation maps at different scenarios. EAP is a

non-structural tool that identifies potential emergency conditions which specify actions to be taken to minimize loss of life and property damage (FEMA, 2004). In the report FEMA states that as a part of EAP structuring, the development of inundation maps should be done by delineating the areas that could be flooded in a hypothetical dam failure scenario. These inundation maps will be of great assistance to the dam owners and also to the local/state emergency agencies to identify the areas that need to be evacuated or notified in an emergency situation. Within the State of Mississippi, the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ), Office of Land and Water Resources, Surface Water Division is responsible for the administration of the dam safety program. According to new State regulations (2004) the development of EAP was made mandatory and the owners of high and significant hazard dams are required to follow a model EAP, which should include inundation maps identifying vulnerable areas. Though a very few EAP have been developed (27 out of 277 high hazard dams) following the new regulations, the 2006 MEMA report states that none of them indicate any types of structures potentially impacted nor provide an estimate of the potential losses to the identified structures.

Figure: 1.1 Status of EAP for High Hazard dams in Mississippi

The MEMA report attributes the vulnerability of Mississippi citizens to dam failure to the lack of developed EAP by the owners (Federal, State as well as private) of high hazard dams (See Figure 1.1). Flood Hazards due to Dam Break The severity of the calamity is measured by the extent of damage caused to the population, building units and infrastructural facilities. The devastation levels can prove to be dangerous with the presence of high hazard dams. According to MEMA, the State of Mississippi has the 6th largest number of dams in the United States with 3,561 dams in its inventory. The damage can be far more severe and accumulative to the state of Mississippi, which is vulnerable to dam break flash floods, with 277 high hazard dams 1, 67 significant hazard 2 dams across its area (See Figure:1.2).

Figure: 1.2 Map Showing Spatial Location of High Hazard dams in the state of Mississippi.

A high hazard dam is defined as a dam whose failure would cause a loss of life and significant property damage

A significant hazard dam may cause significant damage to main roads, railroads or cause interruption of service to important public utilities

The outbreak of these dams due to extreme inflows resulting from the climate change induced high intensity rainfall events, can lead to heavy losses in terms of deaths, economical loss 3 , submergence of the key facilities and subsequent contamination of natural resources such as wetlands. Purpose of the Research In this context, the current research aims to analyze the impact of climate changes (under various rainfall events) on the flood inundation risk levels in a dam break scenario and disseminate the flood risk information about the vulnerable blocks using web-based geospatial technologies to the planning authorities and public. In this process the study focuses on generating dam break flood inundation maps for the downstream region and developing an Arc IMS web application that can make the information available for better interpretation and understanding in regulating developmental activities in the flood plains. Information Tool to facilitate Urban Planning The process of planning includes a variety of complex social, ecological, economical and cultural processes and requires a proper set of tools/ method/procedures integrated in a system called a Planning Support System (Daniel, 2004). Daniel further states that the planning support system focuses on providing the necessary support to systematically analyze information, finding and formulating problems, structuring and formulating alternative options, assessing and evaluating their impacts, and selecting and recommending a proper solution. Planning should be seen as a process (McLoughlin, 1973) and should be carried out considering the present as well as future time frames. In this process,
3

The rehabilitation cost for Mississippi's most critical dams is estimated at $82.5 million. (ASCE, 2003)

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planning activities need to move in a direction that would substantially improve the ability to use support systems (Ahris & Sulaiman, 2002) and utilize the results of the analyses to evaluate alternative plans and make informed choices in the decisionmaking process. Emphasizing the significance of planning support systems in planning, Calkins (1972) states that better planning can be achieved through better information, which will necessarily flow from an information system. Analysis of the spatial and statistical information in terms of forecasting, modeling, and evaluation of present and future scenarios can assist planning with crucial information. Significance of Research to the field of Planning The role of planning support system in a flood plain land use planning can be considered as crucial and sensitive. The planning authorities need to foresee the innumerable complications of actual development (Leopold, 1968) as the developments or changes in the land use parameters can affect the hydrological functioning of the flood plains in terms of changes in the peak flow characteristics, total run off, and the quality of water. The changes in these hydrological parameters can in turn affect the resistance of the floodplains to any flood hazards and thus increase the vulnerability of the region to catastrophic flood damages. The dynamic nature of the flood plains requires modeling and formulating scenarios. Adequate information and prediction capability is vital to improve the decision making processes associated with flood plain development (Francisco et. al, 1999). The information tools developed by the planning support systems help in communicating with the public in a scientifically correct and yet rather simple manner.

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The development of planning support systems that analyze, develop and disseminate the information about the inundated areas, not only help in emergency response activities but also give a scope to assess the spatial extent of land parcels/properties, communities, that are likely to be inundated under various climate change impacts, and can serve as an information tool to the decision-making agencies in planning developmental proposals for present as well as future. Flood simulation in a dam break scenario can offer a useful approach in understanding the consequences of current spatial land use planning activities and reveal the fact that inappropriate programs can exacerbate the negative effects of extreme weather related events. By generating information like inundated areas, water depths, this study can help the planning agencies in implementing non-structural solutions such as controlling development in flood-prone areas, planning new dams and managing appropriate land use practices that minimize possible flood damages. Planning, with its dynamic nature (Ahris & Sulaiman, 2002), requires the integration of multi disciplinary information to facilitate policy making and implementation. The use of Geographical Information System (GIS), to a large extent can facilitate in providing accurate information as it can handle the digital data along with their associated attribute information on physical and environmental aspects for the spatial features. Utilizing the advancements in todays technology, web based GIS (Arc Internet Mapping Service- Arc IMS) can help in disseminating the information to the public through internet and can serve as a robust tool in planning by creating awareness and gaining important feedback from the public, which in turn helps in orienting planning towards successful implementation.

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Planning and Environmental Hazards With rapid urbanization and subsequent concentration of population, today's society became highly vulnerable to natural disasters. Adding to this, the changes in the global climate (with the possibility of rise in temperature, increased precipitation and rising sea levels) enlarged the extent and intensity of vulnerability much beyond the expected range. Mitigation measures for these disasters need to be considered as an active ingredient in the land use planning at regional as well as local level in order to achieve a sustainable land use development. Burby (1998), in this regard says that the lack of incorporation of the environmental hazard assessments in the planning and land-use management policies, which might be due to the deficiency in the information about the spatial occurrence of the disaster, further contributed to the increase of the vulnerability. On the same lines, Timmerman (1981), in an attempt to acknowledge the significance of integrating environmental hazard assessment in the planning policies, describes vulnerability as the degree of resistance offered by a social system to the impact of a hazardous event. Here the degree of resistance can be referred as the analysis of the interrelation between the environmental hazards and developmental policies that will enable to point out the strategies and instruments of spatial planning and land management that help in supporting the hazard prevention activities. A disaster, involving catastrophic losses of human lives and property, can occur when this degree of resistance (damage threshold) is surpassed by the hazardous event (Papadopoulos et al, 2000). In the book Cooperating with nature: Confronting Natural Hazards with Land-Use Planning for Sustainable Communities, Deyle et al (1998) explain that

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most of the land-use planning choices are frequently made in the face of substantial uncertainty about the degree of resistance of a specific location to a hazardous event. In this regard, land-use planners often face trade offs between risks to public safety and the economic benefits that may result from a hazardous area (Burby, 1998). Inadequate information about these risks may end up in the wrong selection of choices, thus making the achievement of sustainable land use almost an impossible goal. Informed choices can be only be made when local planners or the decisionmaking authorities have the knowledge or information about the likelihood of the impact and how many people, property and infrastructure are exposed to the risk. In this regard, Deyle (1998) emphasizes that the hazard or disaster assessment provides the factual basis for estimating the socio-economic impact likely to occur which can orient the designing of policies towards integrating risk mitigation. Identifying and assessing a possible hazard not only provides public information but also builds commitment among the decision-making authorities. Awareness of disasters and their spatial location is the first step towards initiating land use planning solutions for the problems they pose (Burby, 1998). Disaster Planning A considerable body of literature has been developed on disaster planning which presents different dimensions of understanding or analyzing a hazard and its subsequent disaster for a specific location. This research presents a review of literature in an attempt to overview the concept of disaster, its mitigation and hazard assessment methods that can be incorporated in the planning process.

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The concept of disaster was presented at a broader perspective by Allen Barton (1969) where a disaster is characterized as a type of collective stress situation in which many members of a social system fail to receive expected conditions of life from the system. Similarly, White (1974) views disaster as the product of the joint functioning of a hazard event and the human use system. The most highly cited explanation was developed by Fritz (1961) who defines disaster as: An event concentrated in time and space, in which a society or a relatively self-sufficient subdivision of a society undergoes severe danger and incurs such losses to its members and physical appurtenances that the social structure is disrupted and the fulfillment of all or some of the essential functions of the society is prevented.

Based on Fritz notion of viewing disaster, Kreps (1989) and Quarantelli (1998) assert that disaster can be conceptualized as events that involve social disruptions or harm and generates a collective response for mitigation. As a part of these mitigation efforts, Porfiriev (1998) views disaster as the necessity of taking emergency actions to stabilize the system. Godschalk et al (1999), in the book Natural Hazard Mitigation-Recasting Disaster policy and planning explains that disaster happens only when extreme hazard forces such as floods, earthquakes take place in developed areas, damaging life and property and not in unpopulated areas. Further the authors acknowledged the significance of the mitigation measures (assessment methods) in planning through their definition of the magnitude of a disaster as the function of the intensity of the hazard event, the number of people and structures exposed to it and the effectiveness of mitigation plans in protecting people and property from hazard forces. Similarly, The National Governors Association (NGA, 1979) describes disaster as the defining event in a hazard cycle and
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characterizes disaster planning by four temporal stages as 1) mitigation, 2) preparedness, 3) response, 4) recovery. According to the NGAs report mitigation measures are referred to as the crucial tools that ensure resistance against the hazard impacts. Several studies on earthquakes (Beatley, 1992), hurricanes and coastal storms (Mittler, 1993, Godschalk , 1989), flooding (Burby, 1988) and tornados and severe storms (Fuller, 1987) have analyzed the significance of hazard assessment in planning and defended the mitigation measures to be cost-effective. On the other hand, Tierney, Lindell and Perry (1998), in the book Facing the Unexpected, argue that these mitigation measures, which actually were taken as a response to protect societies from geophysical, climatological and technological hazards, often prove to be ineffective and themselves become a source of added vulnerability when hazard occurs. It refers to how the failure of structures, due to a hazard, can become agents of death, injury and damage. Dams, which were originally built to protect communities from flooding, can increase the risk of vulnerability of the downstream to large or unexpected floods that exceed their design standards. Tierney et al (1998) presumes that the policies and plans designed to provide protection against some sort of hazard may not be effective in reducing vulnerability risk from other hazards. A spatial dimension has been given by Dynes (1970) to the definition of disaster event where he describes the event as involving a series of concentric zones. Godschalk et al. (1999) reveals this spatial dimension of the disaster event while describing the record natural disasters of 1990s. Mid west floods that affected nine states in 1993 happened to be the costliest flood disaster in US history in the upper

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Mississippi river basin, which affected 9 mid western states and resulted in $12-$16 billion in damage. The direct and indirect impacts of the disasters will have adverse consequences on the social and economic well being of the location. Planners or the decision making authorities should view and understand the physical characteristics of disasters as an important indicator for identifying vulnerable areas and should consider hazard mitigation measures as an important component in the decision making process. Hazard Mitigation Smith (1996), in the book Environmental Hazards: Assessing Risk and Reducing Disaster, states that hazard events cannot be prevented from occurring, but their impacts on people and property can be curtailed if advance action is taken to reduce risks and minimize vulnerability to natural disasters. And this advance action, according to Godschalk (1999) appears in four categories to a disaster response mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery, where mitigation can be said as an effective of all as it takes place well before the disaster event. In the view of catastrophic monetary damages, the hazard mitigation is recognized as an important national policy issue and according to a FEMA report, the US Congress directed the Federal Emergency Management Agency to shift its priority from response and recovery actions to mitigation efforts and thus bringing a fundamental change from reactive to proactive national emergency management policy. As a response to national emergency management policy Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (44 C.F.R 206) was enacted in 1988

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by the US Congress, and according to FEMA report (2007), the act intends to provide orderly and continuing federal assistance to state and local governments in carrying out their hazard mitigation efforts. The act states that the hazard mitigation efforts can be carried out not only in terms of structural aspects but also in terms of non structural actions that focus on strengthening the building/zoning codes in the hazard area and also by avoiding or redirecting developmental activities away from hazard areas. A hazard mitigation plan is a plan that involves a systematic evaluation of the nature and extent of vulnerability to the impacts of hazards present in the society and thus formulates necessary actions needed to reduce the vulnerability to hazards. Godschalk (1999) emphasizes that an efficient formulation of these hazard mitigation strategies can be achieved only when the hazard assessment evaluations are done specific to a designated location. Hazard Assessment Burby (1998), in the book confronting Natural hazards: Land use planning for sustainable communities, asserts that to achieve safe and sustainable communities, the potentiality of nonstructural measures plays a crucial role in mitigating the hazard and describes that the components of hazard assessment: hazard identification and vulnerability assessment serves as the cornerstones towards designing these mitigation strategies. 1. Hazard identification: Defines the extent and magnitude of a hazard that may be possible for a specific geographical area.

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2. Vulnerability assessment: Characterizes the exposed populations and property and the extent of injury and damage that, may result from a hazard event. The information generated from hazard identification and vulnerability assessment, to a large extent, can be applied in land use planning and growth management applications (Mileti, 1999). The future land use planning can be made efficient by identifying and avoiding potential problems associated with developing hazardous areas. In flood plains, the critical areas can be delineated and further or new development can be restricted by means of zoning or strict regulations. In case of already developed areas, these assessment techniques not only help authorities to justify the new restrictions that are imposed in that specific location but also to assess the benefits of mitigating hazards. Burby (1998) very well presented the description and significance of the two levels of hazard assessment and says that simple hazard identification is the most widely used form of hazard assessment that serves as an effective tool for land use planning and growth management. The hazard identification maps are used to demarcate areas where specific land use policies are to be implemented. The next level in the hazard assessment, vulnerability assessment, combines the information from hazard identification with an inventory of the existing property and population exposed to hazard. The final outcome of these two levels generates the information on who and what are vulnerable to a natural hazard within the geographical areas defined by hazard identification and assists in estimating the damage that might cause due to various intensities of hazard.

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Literature on some studies/reports reveals that the hazard assessment techniques have been employed for different purposes. Dalton (1994) presents the case of Florida growth management legislation that required their comprehensive plans to incorporate the hazard mitigation goals, objectives obtained from the coastal high-hazard assessment. Bolin (1993), from a different perspective, performed hazard assessment studies which revealed the social injustice and equity issues aspects in the society as the results showed some segments of the population are more affected than others. On similar lines, French (1996) developed hazard assessment method to analyze the demographic characteristics of population affected by damaged infrastructure. The principle obstacle in analyzing the hazard assessment was put forth by Burby (1998) as dearth of the information tool: the limited knowledge on the magnitude and location-specific hazards, lack of parcel specific data, lack of professional expertise to incorporate hazard assessment models into land use decisions and lack of understanding of these models. Harris and Batty (1993) describes the components of this information tool (referred as planning support system) as: problems and tasks; running models that provide information through analysis by evaluating and predicting scenarios and generating information tool that can guide the designing and planning of policies appropriately. Planners and any other decision-making authorities in order to select informed choices (Deyle, 1998) and accordingly make decisions must attempt to overcome the obstacles put forth by Burby (1998) by exploring an information tool (as a planning

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support system) as mentioned by Harris and Batty (1993) for achieving a sustainable community. Background Information In budget dollars per dam Mississippi ranks 47th,, leaving thousands of Mississippians to live below high- and significant-hazard-potential dams, which, without timely maintenance and inspection, become potentially lethal time bombs (ASDSO, 2006). Jackson Metropolitan area, the central region of Mississippi which has a dense concentration of population and concentration of high hazard dams covers 5 counties namely Hinds, Rankin, Madison, Copiah and Simpson. It has a population of 529,456 as of 2006 according to Census Bureau and consists of around 10% of Mississippis high hazard dams in its area. Historical Information of Ross Barnett Reservoir The Ross Barnett Reservoir was built in 1960, which is located in the midst of the 3 most densely populated counties and economic centers of Mississippi is one of the high hazard dam which lacks an EAP (MDEQ, Division of Dam safety, 2004). Further the design lifetime of the earth-fill dam 4 poses more at risk to the flood rise than concrete or masonry (Defra, 2002), is of serious concern as the Ross Barnett Reservoir is nearing 50 years of completion in 2010 (MEMA, 2004). The dam is 23,400 feet in length with a maximum height of 64 feet. Elevation at the top of the dam is 308 feet (US Army Corps of Engineers). The principal spillway consists of ten

An embankment dam in which more than 50% of the total volume is formed of compacted earth layers is generally smaller than 3-inch size (FEMA, 2003).

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40- by 21-foot tainter gates with a discharge capacity of 180,000 cubic feet per sec (cfs). The dam is maintained by the Pearl River Basin Water Supply District (PRBWSD). According to the PRBWSD, the operation of the Ross Barnett Reservoir is aimed at maintaining a stage feet of around 296ft. With the pool level at 296ft, the inflow (up to 50,000cfs) received from upstream is released to the downstream of Pearl River. Despite flood control improvements of levees and clearing, the Jackson, MS, metropolitan area below the Ross Barnett Reservoir Dam suffers annual flood damages from the Pearl River of about $10 M (US Army Corps of Engineers, 2004). The outbreak of this dam can prove to be dangerous in terms of heavy loss of life and infrastructure/property damage. As the downstream region of the reservoir includes the most densely populated county of the state, Hinds County, with the state capital (City of Jackson) in its province, outbreak of Ross Barnett Reservoir can paralyze the social and economical functionalities of the region to a large extent. Currently the downstream counties (Hinds and Rankin County) are taking part in the FEMA NFIP program. According to that, the developmental activities will be bound to 100-year flood inundation zones. According to MDEQ (2009), the preparation of the 100-year inundation zone for the Hinds County will be completed by late 2010. Saikia et al (2006) state that the review of past works reveals that dam break problems remain a topic of continued interest and presents an historical dimension as Ritter in 1892 attempted to find the first analytical solution for dam break studies. A review of literature suggests that a number of studies have been done for simulating dam break flood such as Katopodes N. D. (1984), Hromadka (1985), Akanbi A. A. et

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al. (1988), Zhao D. H. et al. (1996), Sarma, A. K. (1999), Zoppou .C. and Roberts S. (2000). Similarly, MEMA report (2006) presents examples of 2 dam break studies that have been executed for Oak Lake Dam (Rankin County) and Acacia Woods Lake Dam (Rankin County). In both cases the dam break simulations were done at the normal water level failure and have not considered the future possible increase in the rainfall intensities due to climate changes. Another study on the Ross Barnett Reservoir by Kilgore, Sheldon and Davis (2004) was done from a hydraulic analysis dimension. The study can be said as deficient of applying the analysis to the field of urban planning and also analyzing dam failure with respect to climate change effects. In spite of number of studies, there exists a knowledge gap in understanding the impact of climate changes on dam break risk of the Ross Barnett reservoir and possible inundation risk levels for the Hinds County, which is located in the downstream of the Ross Barnett reservoir. In planning, the success of any program depends on the levels of public participation. Here dissemination of information plays a crucial role and it can be said that all these numerous studies fail in developing effective applications or strategies where the information about the inundation risk levels of Ross Barnett reservoir on the Hinds County can be made accessible to both the concerned authorities as well as the public. In this connection, the study employs Arc IMS (Internet Mapping Service) as the medium to dissipate the information. GIS-based ArcIMS support systems allow planners to quickly and efficiently test alternative land use patterns and determine their likely impacts by providing the ability to visualize the probable result of any

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land use changes (ESRI, 2008). With the popularity and familiarity of the internet, the ArcIMS tools provide an economical way to distribute spatial data as it can be accessed from any place with an internet connection (Christopher, 2000). The updating and querying capabilities of the ArcIMS applications generate dynamic information tools (Tiffany et al, 2000) which can empower the public to understand the current situation of their communities and contribute to the planning process with their invaluable inputs and feedbacks. Statement of the Problem As flooding is associated with high rainfall (USGS), the vulnerability of a region to flood disaster can be better understood by studying the current (historical rainfall data) and projected climate changes in terms of temperature and precipitation variations. A report by EPA- Climate change and Mississippi states that based on IPCC and Hadley Centers Climate Model - by 2100 the temperature in Mississippi could increase by a range of 2F-6F with a corresponding increase in precipitation by a range of 5-25% from the last century. Several studies have suggested that these projected changes in temperature and precipitation could have significant influences upon the impacts of extreme flooding events (Khairy, 2000) and the predictions of Mississippi reveals the risk of flooding events in future. This research involves simulation of the flood inundation due to dam break for the average rainfall event (calculated from a 100 years (1908-2008) of precipitation data for the region of Central Mississippi) and an increase of 10% and 25% on this event. These simulated scenarios, which are considered as base flooding events (NIWA, 2005), provide the inundation risks on a typical scale that have a high

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possibility of occurrence on any given day in a year. According to the IPCC (2007) report, the evidences of the climate changes can be observed not only in terms of increase in the average rainfall, but also in terms of increase in the intensity 5 of precipitation events, the probable maximum precipitation (PMP), which is of high concern towards flooding problems. University of Miami (2008) report states that the intensity of the rainfall event (the meteorological variable of interest), for a given period over a particular location, should be considered as the significant threat to the increased risk of flooding. The 100 year rainfall data of the central Mississippi region reveals similar trend as an inclination in the intensity of precipitation events can be observed after 1970s. Interesting results, which depict an extreme worst scenario, may be generated if flood simulation can be done for the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) event that had occurred in the past 100 years. PMP, the maximum precipitation amount that has occurred in a month, can be selected from the 100 years monthly rainfall data. FEMA (2004) describes this scenario as incremental hazard identification and portrays as the most severe combination of critical meteorological and hydrologic conditions that are reasonably possible in a region (FEMA, 2004). In this process, the study, along with the mentioned average rainfall events, also aimed to assess the potential impact of high intensity event (the climate change effect) on the dam break inundation risk for the study region. This is done by simulating scenarios for the PMP event from the 100 years of monthly rainfall data and a 50% and 100% increase on that event to capture the worst possible rainfall

The greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration that is physically possible over a given area at a particular geographical location at a certain time of year.

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event that could occur. The inflows for these scenarios are calculated using simulation methods. As the inflows are calculated using the study regions Digital Elevation Model (DEM), any discrepancies in the inflow data (that might occur due to the runoffs accumulating from upstream points beyond the study region) is handled by adding the difference between the modeled inflows and the actual USGS inflow (obtained from the available USGS stations) to the inflow data obtained from simulation methods (See Figure 4: in appendix). As understood from the literature review, hazard assessment is done under the two steps: 1) Hazard identification and vulnerability assessment 2) Dissemination of information by developing a web application using Arc IMS technology. In the process of hazard identification, inundation maps are prepared for the mentioned simulated scenarios for the downstream region (Hinds County). As a part of vulnerability assessment, the impact of inundation risk levels on the cultural, historical, social, infrastructural (population and housing units, transportation, key facilities, land use categories) is analyzed. Finally, the study developed an ArcIMS web application where the information about the inundation risk levels at the simulated dam break scenarios under various rainfall events are made accessible so that the information can be interpreted and utilized quickly and easily.

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Research Questions The problem will be addressed by answering the following questions What is the potential impact of climate changes on the inundation risk levels of Hinds County due to Ross Barnett Reservoir failure? What is the spatial extent of the downstream region that is likely to be inundated due to the failure of Ross Barnett Reservoir under various rainfall events? What key facilities, land use categories, population and transportation are vulnerable to the flood risk? How can the information be disseminated effectively using Arc IMS technology? Type of Research The current research is a quantitative case study using simulation scenario methods. The research used simulation methods Hydrological Engineering CenterHydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) and Hydrological Engineering Center River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) models and depended on the secondary data information collected from various sources. The research work is carried out in the following phases 1. Phase I: Collection of data for the Ross Barnett downstream region 2. Phase II: Establishment and implementation of dam break model 3. Phase III: Preparation of thematic layer maps 4. Phase IV: Integration/Overlaying of data 5. Phase V: Development of an Arc IMS web application

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Expected Results The study expects to get the results as below 1. Simulation of 1979 flood to implement the methodology and to check the validity of the HEC RAS model (See Appendix). 2. Increase in the hazard identified buffer area with the increase in precipitation level. 3. A web application that can visualize and disseminate results effectively 4. A methodology which can be applied to simulate a hypothetical dam break scenario in any other high hazard dam. Limitations of the Study The study is limited to the information available from the secondary sources. As the research involves using of simulation models, the study is restricted to the limitations of these models. As the Prediction of the future land use/cover changes involves consideration of various economic, social and environmental factors (which is out of the scope of this research), the study limits or assumes that no significant changes occur in the study period and considered the present land cover data for all the scenarios. Organization of the Written Report The research is delineated as follows. First, a review of relevant literature on the significance of a flood planning support system and its relevance to urban planning is presented. Communities using FEMA flood information tools in their planning activities and the significance of the current research over FEMAs contribution has been presented.

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The second section provides the methodology, data analysis and findings of the research. It begins with description about the simulation models and the research design employed in analyzing the impact of climate changes on the inundation risk levels of downstream region of Ross Barnett Reservoir. The data analysis presents the actual process of simulations. Determination of the rainfall events (for simulation purposes), calculations of the inflows at Ross Barnett Reservoir under various rainfall events, the simulation of dam-break flooding events, the cultural/historical, socioeconomical factors of the region, preparation of thematic layers and development of web-based support system are discussed. The results under four scenarios (the possible least case to the possible worst case scenario) are discussed in terms of hazard identification and vulnerability assessment. The hazard identification is done under spatial extent and depth grid and the vulnerability assessment is done by considering indicators such as inundated key facilities, submerged road network, areas of various land use categories under flood waters and population and housing units at risk. The risk levels under these scenarios are presented in terms of percentage change from scenario to scenario. Finally an integrated risk level for the blocks of Hinds County is presented by calculating the vulnerability index from the indicators. Description of the web-based flood planning support system is discussed at the end. The final chapter provides the summary of the research and presents how the results could be useful to urban planning. The research focused on assessing the impact of climate changes on the inundation risk levels in a dam break scenario

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generated scientific and technological information which could assist planning profession in achieving safe and sustainable communities. Chapter Summary Chapter one provided an insight into impact of climate changes on the flood hazards. The vulnerability of the State of Mississippi in terms of floods and dam break hazards is discussed. The preliminary literature review indicated that hazard identification and vulnerability assessment as the key factors in building safe and sustainable communities. The review stated that the major obstacle in integrating hazard assessment with planning is the lack of development of support system tools that generate information on the magnitude and location-specific hazards, lack of parcel specific data, lack of professional expertise to incorporate hazard assessment models into land use decisions. The chapter provided a framework of the research problem. The significance of the study in urban planning and the purpose of the research were described. The research questions were stated along with the expected results. Limitations of the study were mentioned. The subsequent chapters include: Chapter 2 provides a detailed review of the literature on the significance of flood planning support system in the context of urban planning. Chapter 3 describes the research design. The methodology describes the secondary data collection and the simulation methods used in the research. Chapter 4 describes the data analysis in terms of the detailed procedure of the simulations. Chapter 5 and Chapter 6 include the discussion of the results and conclusions, areas of further research and implications in urban planning.

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CHAPTER 2 PLANNING SUPPORT SYSTEMS- LITERATURE REVIEW Complex nature of Floods and Flood risk assessment tools Flooding is a natural process and can be categorized as a common and costliest natural hazard that can happen any time in wide variety of locations. The degree of danger that people, natural resources, infrastructure and property gets exposed differs with various forms of flooding that come from rivers, sea, from intense rainfall events and dam breaks. Each form of flooding poses different degrees of danger or exposure as the associated inundation depths and velocities vary with different combinations of weather, rainfall patterns, topography and patterns of development. The Great Britain Department for Communities and Local Government (2006), in recognizing this complex nature of flooding events, states that the degree of exposure to floods can become more damaging with the impact of climate change effects. The growing literature on global climate changes (IPCC, 2007) attributes the significant changes in the climate to increase in green house gas emissions and states that the nature of climate change at a regional level will vary with more frequent short-duration, high-intensity rainfall and more frequent periods of long-duration rainfall in future. The past 100 year rainfall data for the state of Mississippi reveal

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such trends and indicates that the state of Mississippi is already undergoing climate change effects. According to Collins (2007), the climate change trends along with the changes in the land use patterns will have implications on the intensity of river flooding and local flash flooding in a flood plain region and can substantially alter the spatial extent of future flood risk. Understanding and developing flood risk assessment tools at various climatic scenarios is a key step in minimizing these flood risk levels. While arguing about the significance of flood risk assessment tools in flood plain development, The Great Britain Department for Communities and Local Government (2006) defines flood risk as a combination of the likelihood of flooding and the potential consequences arising and expresses in terms of the following relationship. Flood risk = Likelihood of flooding x Consequences of flooding It should be understood that the likelihood of flooding is the assessment of the spatial extent of inundation that could happen in various intensities of rainfall events. For example, various scenarios of flooding that are generated by using the regions climate change predictions and the future rainfall trends provides region-specific and accurate likelihood of flooding information. The potential consequences of flooding can be said as the vulnerability of people, property and environment to various hazard intensities associated with various inundation depths and velocities. Flood risk assessed from the above relationship magnifies the impact of flooding and in this context, the Ireland Ministry of Environment (2008) states that the development of flood risk assessment tools reinforces the fact that any land use

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planning decisions in floodplains should make informed choices and the corresponding developmental activities should be carried out in a sensible and careful manner. Adaptation of developmental activities to the impacts of climate change requires an integrated approach that includes different domains of the region such as land use, hydrology and natural resources into consideration. The flood risk assessment tool, developed by incorporating this integrated approach, should assist the decision-making authorities to assess their vulnerability to climate change by simulating different scenarios arising from various rainfall intensities and thus plan appropriate adaptation strategies in advance. In describing the essence of flood risk assessment tools, the Great Britain Department for Communities and Local Government (2006) report puts forth the following major components. The flood risk assessment tools should focus on Incorporating the likely effects of regional climate changes in the assessment process. Providing inundation information that presents a hierarchy of avoidance, followed by substitution of lower vulnerability uses that aims at reducing the potential consequences of flooding. Delineating inundation zones based on the inundation depths and thus assist in the designing the planning guidelines to sufficiently cope up with the effects of climate change. From these points, it is evident that the planning activities and the flood risk assessment tools together play a significant role in avoiding or minimizing future

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increases in flood risk. In this connection, the Ireland Ministry of Environment (2008) states that the urban planning process and the flood risk management process share an inter-dependant relation and the two processes should consider the objectives, direction and constraints of the other to ensure alignment between planning policies and flood risk mitigation measures. Flood risk assessment tools can be undoubtedly considered as a significant planning support system that provides crucial information to the planning process in all the stages. Significance of Flood Planning Support System Urban areas are characterized by high flood risk and vulnerability (especially during extreme rainfall events) due to the exposed accumulation of economic, social and physical areas (Haase, Weichel, and Scheuer, 2006). In order to efficiently manage this exposure of the communities to flood risk, as discussed in the earlier section, the urban planning process and flood risk management process (which are considered as inter-dependant) should support each other by providing information. The evaluation and generation of such information requires knowledge of the spatial and temporal distribution of floods. A planning support system that provides flood risk assessment information aims at applying appropriate methods to quantify and integrate spatial and temporal flood characteristics into a model based prediction using various climatic (rainfall) parameters (Haase et al, 2006). In this context, Teruki et al (2006), in describing the significance of flood risk assessment tool as a planning support system states that the flood planning support system

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Empowers public as well as authorities and encourages participatory decisionmaking.

Integrates physical, social and environmental spheres of a region. Providing easy-to-understand flood risk information Estimates the damage potential, qualitatively and quantitatively. Builds more region-specific flood risk assessment tailored to regions climatic and physical structure.

Aims at providing information to build safe and secure communities On similar lines, Dahm (2006) asserts that flood planning support systems

assist the planning process to realize the physical impacts of possible flooding that could occur in the region and help in designing the developmental guidelines accordingly. On the other hand, Todini (2005) states that flood planning support systems (which model the future climate change scenarios to predict future flooding possibilities) provide a usable quantification of forecasting uncertainty and such support systems assists the planning process to make most effective informed decisions under uncertainty on the future flooding events. Strengthening this notion, Tate (2005) states that these flood planning support systems are becoming invaluable parts in the planning process and by considering the observed and predicted rainfall/hydrological conditions of the region, these support systems portray consequences at a larger scale (Werner, 2005) and have enormous potential to reduce the adverse impacts of flooding on communities. Similarly, Price (2006) describes that the flood planning support systems presents the consequences of flooding from different perspectives such as economic, social and environmental

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factors and such analysis from various perspectives can find efficient ways to apply adaption strategies in developmental activities towards climate change effects. On the other hand Parker (2005) portrays flood planning support system as a diverse information tool that focuses on the quantification of the damage benefits of the property and human beings. From a new dimension, Dahm (2006) says that a flood planning support system developed by integrating various models/forecasts are of no value unless the information does not reach the concerned authorities or public. The author uses the term Dissemination success to explain the level of accomplishment that needs to be achieved by any planning support system. This dissemination success depends on the ability of the information tool to visualize the flooding information spatially in a flexible, efficient and easily understood manner. Parker (2005) says that the core aim of developing a flood planning support system, to make more informed decisions, is achieved only when the information generated is effectively communicated to the concerned authorities and public. In this connection, ESRICanada (2009) describes a flood planning support system developed by using geo spatial technologies such as ArcGIS and ArcIMS can act as a powerful tool that facilitates information access by the general public via the internet and assists the land use planners to carry out their duties accordingly. Similarly, Dahm (2006) says that besides analyzing the scientific and technical aspects of flooding information, the flood planning support system should be seen in connection with the planning authorities and the potentially affected population. It means that how well these people can utilize and incorporate the

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support systems generated information in the designing and testing of alternatives in terms of their adaptability and feasibility towards a flood risk. Dahm (2006) further says that the flood planning support system encourages the concept of social learning and empowers the local residents towards participating in the planning process. A flood planning support system transforms information into knowledge through visualization and analysis and assists the public or concerned authorities to support the planning decisions with the acquired knowledge. It can be said that the ultimate goal of any flood planning support system is to ensure the safety and security of the public and to protect property and the natural resources from flood risks and it is up to the planning authorities to identify the spatial extent of the hazards and determine their impact on the physical/social/environmental elements at risk and accordingly adopt mitigation measures. History of Planning Support System Decision-making is one of the oldest and most commonly performed human activities through which the gap between the present situation and a desired goal is perceived and resolved (Huitt, 1992). According to Malczewski (1997), decision making process for solving complex problems such as land use developments in flood plains largely rely on planning support systems and generally consists of the following three major phases Intelligence Phase: This phase involves searching the environment for conditions calling for a solution.

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 Design Phase: This phase involves inventing, developing, and analyzing a set of possible decision alternatives for the problem identified in the intelligence phase. Choice Phase: Selecting a particular decision alternative from the alternatives designed in the previous phase. The author says that planning support systems play a major role in these phases through its ability to integrate and explore data and information from a wide range of sources. The support systems can effectively present information in a comprehensive form and support the process of designing and evaluating spatial decision alternatives. It allows the decision-maker to access and visualize scientifically modeled information and investigate various alternative scenarios and thus improve the planning process effectiveness. In this context, Malczewski (1997) states that the planning support systems tend to increase the effectiveness, rather than efficiency, of the decision making process in the planning activities. A historical perspective from the available literature indicates that planners have always wanted to use these planning support systems to enhance the analytical, problem solving and decision-making capabilities in order to improve the effectiveness of the planning process (Geertman, 2003). This can be dated back to 1960s when the systems view of planning was imported to planning field from other disciplines. Systems View of Planning According to Chadwick (1971), the systems view of planning focuses on analyzing the interactions between the set of objects that are taking place in the

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environment, which means that the cities are to viewed as systems of inter connected activities. The cities and their regions, according to the pioneer planner Patrick Geddes in the early 20th century, were viewed as functioning entities (Taylor, 1998). The urban systems were viewed as complex systems and forced planners to understand the inter relationships, inter dependencies and their functioning. From this understanding, it was acknowledged that any new development at one part of the urban system can have consequences at another part and requires an evaluation in terms of its probable affects (Taylor, 1998). Till that time, planning profession was under the influence of viewing developmental proposals from an aesthetic and design perspective. More than that, inter related and inter dependant activities of an urban system required an analysis that could consider the economic, social and environmental aspects of the region. The necessity of a model, in other words, a planning support system, that could generate information by integrating and analyzing various factors gained significance against the design view of planning. In this regard, computer-based planning support systems were developed during 1960s and 1970s, the planning profession has not able to embrace them because of their complicated nature and it was the development of geospatial technologies, in 1980s and 1990s that have actually attuned the emphasis of planning support systems in the systems view of planning process. Even though the real emphasis started in 1980s, the underlying concept of Planning Support System can be traced back to 1960s from the issue of Journal of American Institute of Planners (1960), when Britton Harris (1960) has introduced the

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idea of creating integrated modeling tools (Planning Support Systems) that would help planners in the decision making processes. The integrated model of the planning support system, with a combined set of components (mentioned below), was aimed to support planning functions at various stages Component #1:The specific planning tasks and problems at hand Component # 2: Inform the planning process through analysis, prediction and prescription Component #3: The transformation of basic data into information

In this regard, Batty (1993) says that planning support systems, with a framework of these three components visualizes information and makes available to the public realm. Types of Planning Support System Based on the emphasis given to the components in the framework, the planning support systems can be categorized as Traditional based support system. Traditional-based support system which facilitates brainstorming, idea evaluation and problem solving activities (Sugumaran, 2005) can be said to have more focus towards component #1. These support systems enable wide diverse groups to contribute on structuring complex problems and evaluate different scenarios. Expert and Knowledge based support systems. Expert and knowledgebased systems can be said as the support systems that aim at generating information by incorporating knowledge components specific to a particular domain. These expert support systems enable the planning process to analyze relatively complex problems

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and perform what-if analysis from the analysis and predictions simulated using domain expertise (component #2). Web-based planning support system. Web-based support system is a computerized system that presents and visualizes information using web-browser. Sugumaran (2005) describes this type of support system as revolutionized development as the ubiquitous nature of the web has made the analysis of complex models to be visualized in simple form on the internet. The integration of GIS with these analytical models made the web-based support systems capable of exploring, structuring, and generating solutions for spatial planning problems and the ability to display results of the analysis on maps/satellite images etc facilitated the transformation of basic data into information. Why should we use Planning Support Systems Obtain Quantified Information. For an effective decision making process, planning activity of any flood plain requires the use of quantified information that assists in determining the potential benefits of reduced flood damage. Obtaining quantified flood risk information is itself a complex process as it involves evaluation of many uncertain factors (such as rainfall and hydrological data predictions) and involves integration of physical/socio-economic elements of the region that affect the levels of the flooding risk. There is no unique algorithm that can transform this basic data into information. Planning support systems facilitates the decision making process with this quantified information through presenting different scenarios of flood risk in the region by efficiently integrating data predictions with the simulation models.

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Overcome limitations of human capability. Integration of large information data bases, knowledge processes and simulation models are required for effective decision making process especially in sensitive regions such as flood plains. In this process, the human capabilities, such as transferring information from one model to another and depicting various scenarios from the models manually can lead to errors and is often time consuming. A Planning Support system can improve the work effectiveness by eliminating errors in transferring information from models and thus can facilitate the decision maker to allocate time in analyzing the what-if scenarios rather than simulating them from raw data. Adoption of the flood planning support system. The flood planning support system, developed using geospatial technologies, can be adopted and utilized from different perspectives. The power of the flood planning support system is in its ability to simulate various flood risk scenarios and adopt the results by overlaying with various thematic layers (such as key facilities, schools, hospitals etc) and accordingly assist the decision making process in developing individual plans tailoring to the community needs and to locate or secure the facilities away from the inundation zones. Advantages of flood Planning Support System Using a flood planning support system that provide hazard mitigation information in the planning process, according to Godschalk (1998), is beneficial as it Allows the planning process to consider regional issues in a systematic and comprehensive manner

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Encourages social learning and educates the public, particularly the target group about the hazards.

Demonstrates the connection between public interests and proposed planning developmental activities.

Gives an opportunity to resolve conflicts over priorities and reach consensus on the goals.

Ensures and guides the way that future developments to adopt mitigation measures and directs developmental activities away from high-hazard areas

From the above points, it can be understood that the advantages of the flood planning support system can be categorized as two types: Serving the planning authorities and the public. In the process of making the planning decisions, the data and the simulated results that are stored in the support systems, can be easily accessed by the planning authorities and keep them informed about the spatial extent of not only historical flooding events but also future predicted flooding scenarios. It gives a chance to visualize a combined data of flood water levels (at each scenario) along with the social and economic data in flood affected area. On the other hand, the advantages of a planning support system can be pointed out as empowering public by disseminating the information in a much understandable format and thus facilitate participation in the planning process with the invaluable inputs acquired through the process of social learning. Urban Planning and flood planning support system

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Urban planning is a complex process with various aspects of social, economic, physical and environmental elements being considered in response to societal problems occurring at different spatial scales (Geertman, 2003). According to Koehler (2007), there exist fundamental alterations in the identity and growth of urban environment that has brought significant transformations in the socio-economic interactions, environmental quality and physical manifestations of an urban region. The interactive and inter-dependant nature of social, economic, environmental and physical aspects required involvement from distinct groups, often with conflicting interests, in the decision making process. Especially in an event of disaster such as floods, decisions made in this face of conflicting interests often aggravate the potential flood risk of the communities. In this context, planning profession had to embrace wide range of challenges, (apart from its traditional approach of physical planning) and take up increased set of responsibilities in order to resolve conflicts among the social, economical, environmental and physical spheres of a community (Koehler, 2007). According to Godschalk (2003) the practice of linking sustainability to the planning process assists in resolving these conflicts and in order to integrate and implement this successfully, towards handling a disaster like flood, the values underlying the concept of sustainability in the context of disaster mitigation has to be understood. Practice of sustainable approach in planning involves integration of the social, economic and environmental spheres of a community. In working towards reducing the disaster risk, the social dimension of the sustainability can be referred as improving the livability of the urban regions by encouraging participation of at-risk

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communities in the planning process to reduce vulnerability (Godschalk, 2003). This can be achieved by 1. Increasing awareness of hazards among public and promoting responsibility to participate in planning process. 2. Planners (with reliable information) advocating on behalf of the people at-risk who are most likely to live in hazard areas as they cannot afford safer land. The consideration of the environmental sphere towards integrating sustainable approach can be understood as preserving the functionality of ecosystems (biological and physical) and their ability to adapt to change. For example, natural resources such as vegetation and wetlands act as buffers and increase the communitys ability to absorb external shocks from the natural hazards such as floods. Acknowledging this direct relationship between natural resources preservation and vulnerability of the region assists in restricting uncontrolled urban development that destroys ecosystems and there by maintain their quality. The economic dimension of sustainable approach towards handling a disaster can be referred as the need to retain the communitys economic viability in the face of shocks. Preventing development in hazardous areas and designing structures and public facilities such as roads, bridges to stand up under hazard forces reduces loss of productivity of the community (Beatley, 1992) that constrains economic growth. Godschalk (2003) states that, the integration of the three spheres in managing disasters should aim at intergenerational equity. In other words, the integration of social, environmental and economical aspects in the planning process should be

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future oriented. This future orientation, according to Friedmann (1987), requires scientific and technical information to put strategies into action in the public domain. When dealing with land use planning in the flood plains, generation or obtaining this scientific and technical information requires expertise in various domains. The complexity of planning tasks in these flood plains necessitates a better understanding of the possible future scenarios and demands an inclusive nature of various climate change/hydrological factors in the developmental activities (Geertman, 2003). In this connection, Timmerman (1997) says that planners are not expected to have all the knowledge/expertise in different domains. The lack of ability to perform these tasks, by planners alone, demanded development of support systems that generate future oriented scientific/technical information which could take advantage of the geospatial technologies in order to represent in a spatial setting. Godschalk (2003) states that the proactive nature of the flood planning support system assists in generating valuable information about the future possible flood risk scenarios and helps in orienting land use planning activities towards a sustainable development. Employment of flood planning support systems in the planning process helps in exposing the long term threats posed by flood hazards and facilitates the present planning activities to design in a futuristic nature and work towards retaining the functionalities of social, economical and environmental resources viable in the face of hazard. Significance of Geospatial technologies in Planning Support System Consideration of the social, economic, environmental and physical aspects of a community in the development of a flood planning support system requires

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conjunction of various diverse factors such as climate change (rainfall predictions), topography, land use, population etc. in order to generate modeled information. Processing of such modeling output and displaying the results in an understandable spatial format requires efficient management of large spatial and temporal datasets and integration of multidisciplinary data (Harris, 1960). Spatial representation is critical in visualizing planning problems and geo spatial technologies (ArcGIS), with their powerful capacity to manage/analyze/visualize spatial datasets (Yaakup et al, 2005), assists in including multi disciplinary data in a systematical manner (which is required for a flood planning support system). It facilitates planning process to efficiently perform operations and effectively exchange information with the public, which ultimately leads to a better and informed decision-making process. Developing flood planning support system using geospatial technologies (ArcGIS) assists in resolving the conflicts between diverse groups as the process of information exchange helps in collaborative decision-making process. It should be understood that the process of information exchange plays a crucial role in making the planning support system to accomplish the purpose of reaching its ultimate destination (the public and planning authorities) and according to Wang and Cheng (2007), the advent of internet revolution helped in developing web-based support systems that could assist in establishing a collaborative/sharing instrument among various organizations as well as public. As a demonstration of this concept, Wang and Cheng further explains about an existing support system, Canadian Geospatial Data Infrastructure (CGDI) that has

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developed flood risk mapping tool and has used the internet medium to disseminate information as a part of empowering its citizens in the land use decision-making process. The department of Natural resources, Canada (that developed CGDI) asserts that disseminating information through web medium helps people to better understand their situations, challenges, opportunities and potential solutions and thus improves the decision making process (Geoconnections, 2008). Communities using flood support systems in their planning activities As understood from the previous sections, it can be said that one of the cornerstones of managing land use activities in flood plains is to make people and authorities aware of the flood risk and empower them to be able to evaluate the risk. Only then, it can be expected that people and authorities respond to threat (Merz, Thieken and Gocht, 2007) in an efficient manner. It is worth looking at communities that are proactive in nature and developed such flood-information tools using webbased geo spatial technologies in educating their public and authorities about the possible natural hazards that could happen in their communities. Numbers of communities, across United States, currently are utilizing and integrating flood support system generated information in their developmental activities and 3 examples of such communities (Humboldt County-CA, City of Austin, TX and City of Boulder, CO) that are active in gearing their developmental activities towards hazard mitigation are discussed here. 1. Humboldt County, CA: Humboldt County is situated in the northwest coast of the California and has a population of 126518 (US Census, 2000). The Humboldt County Community Development Services is responsible for carrying out various

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developmental activities in the county, with planning division being the central department in its structure. In formulating and implementing policies and plans for the developmental activities, the planning division has acknowledged the significance of involving various agencies and public in the decision making process and worked towards empowering them with the information about the vulnerability of their communities towards any natural hazards.

Figure: 2.1 Flood information tool used by Humboldt County In order to facilitate the process of interaction and to obtain inputs, the planning division has focused its functionality on developing support services and therefore, maintained a web-based support system that depicts possible threats from the natural hazards such as floods (FEMA 100-Year base flood), dam breaks, earth quakes etc. The Humboldt County Planning division is playing an active role in disseminating information by illustrating the vulnerable areas in terms of various themes (key facilities) displayed through various layers. According to the Humboldt County Planning division, this effort has significantly contributed to the current planning needs and proved to be very useful in integrating other county departments as well.

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2.

City of Austin, TX: The City of Austin, TX has a history of flooding recorded

since 1869 and has experienced high-magnitude floods almost every decade. To build flood-resilient communities, the City of Austin relied on a GIS-based information tool Floodplain Viewer which visualizes FEMA base flood (100-year) elevation on the land use parcels.

Figure 2.2 Information tool used by City of Austin

Using the information generated by the Flood viewer tool, the City of Austin delineated the 100-year flood plain zones and formulated certain strategies in the developmental activities associated with the flood plain areas. Based on this visual description, regulations have been devised in terms of restrictions on the encroachments of buildings and parking areas in the 100-year flood plains. In case of any constructional or excavation activity to be performed in the 100-year flood plain, the City of Austin requires a site plan which justifies the purpose of development and an technical explanation to ensure that no adverse impact will occur to the flood risk in that area.

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The City of Austin is utilizing the flood information tool chiefly to set the Land Development Code in order to get it reflected in the activities contemplating in the floodplains. 3. City of Boulder, CO: The City of Boulder, located at the foot of Rocky

Mountains (35 miles northwest of Denver) is another example that is utilizing flood inundation information (FEMA 100-year base flood) in their planning activities to mitigate and minimize flood-related problems. Various programs in the community are guided by the information provided by these non-structural tools and are tuned to adapt to the flood management programs whose focus is mainly on natural resource preservation and public education.

Figure: 2.3 Information tool used by City of Boulder According to the City of Boulder, the intention of using the flood information tools in the developmental activities is to accommodate floods but not to control them. By means of these non-structural tools, the City of Boulder has focused on managing the floodplains by formulating strategies such as over bank land shaping in order to handle flood waters.

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The city of Boulder is utilizing the floodplain information to recognize the beneficial functionality of the natural resources (such as wetlands) in their flood plains. In accordance to preserve these buffering agents and to enhance their functionality, the City of Boulder is managing the floodplains through regulating land use activities and prohibiting encroachments or relocating high hazard structures. On the other hand, the City of Boulder, by providing an access to online flooding information tool, aims at making the public aware of self-help measures, various flood proof options, risk assessments and flood insurance details so as to encourage their interaction and involvement in the decision making process. The City of Boulder, in order to strengthen their efforts to enhance the environmental and social functionality of their community, uses the flood information tools as a part of integrating sustainable approach in their decision making process. Development of flood information tools-FEMA NFIP program From the above discussed examples, it is evident that the fundamental floodplain management program is built on the FEMAs flood information tools that are developed as a part of National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Most of the communities in the United States are considering the NFIP generated flood maps as the primary source to regulate their planning activities (a mutual agreement between Federal Government and communities). According to FEMA (1998), NFIP flood information tools exercises three functionalities - identifying the flood hazard through mapping, guiding developmental activities through regulations and providing information for flood property insurance. As discussed earlier, the intensity and probability of a flood hazard varies with the

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magnitude and frequency. Each river or a stream has its own probability of flooding that can range from an ordinary flood to a most severe flood (FEMA, 1998). As a part of identifying the flood hazard, NFIP has set a common standard and adopted a baseline probability of flooding called base flood. Base flood is expressed as onepercent annual chance flood or a 100-year flood and is used as a national standard by NFIP. Using the 100-year flood hazard identification, NFIP delineates the spatial extent of land under the flood waters and designates the area as Special flood hazard area (SFHA). The 100-year SFHA is considered as the basis for the local communities in order to fulfill NFIP requirements and to enforce regulations in their planning activities. Significance of the present study over FEMAs contribution As per the discussion in the previous section, the flood hazard identification and the delineation of the flood prone region in the communities is done by FEMA for a 100-year flood magnitude. The stream flows associated with a 100-year flood magnitude are estimated on the basis of the observed historical peak flow data, calculated using statistical methods. As the stream flows are associated with rainfall, the continuing climate change effects may cause the stream flows to deviate from their past trends (USGS, 1995) making the 100-year stream flow calculations unreliable. While describing the impact of climate change on the stream flow trends, Gregory and David (2002) explains that climate model simulation (using enhanced greenhouse gas emissions) indicate widespread increases in precipitation and runoff that results in accelerated hydrological cycle. Such an intensified hydrological cycle, according to Milly (2002), not only leads to an increase in extreme flood events but

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also the associated risk of a 100-year flood (1 chance of occurring once in 100-years) gets accelerated to 3- 6 chances in 100 years in the 21st century. On similar lines, Jones (1997) asserts that the change in stream flow is driven by climate change effects and therefore requires a need to investigate the extreme precipitation events (the probable maximum precipitation events) in order to estimate the induced change in the flow rate. In the same way, Lehner (2001) explains that the statistical calculation of a stream flow using historical data shows less accuracy as the return period of a 100-year flood may become a 50-year flood or double its magnitude in the face of climate change effects. So estimating flood magnitude based on the exact discharge flow is more accurate than absolute numbers as 100-year or a 200-year flood. Estimating the flood magnitude from the stream flow calculated using the rainfall data predicted by climate models can prove to be more appropriate to identify/delineate flood prone areas and information tools developed using such data can serve as a better guide to formulate regulations in the flood plains. Another important dimension in assessing the flood magnitude for a region is presented by Davies (1997) as the dam break induced floods which are extremely huge and highly unpredictable. The author says that the flood waters from a dam break can affect the stream flows with a peak discharge several times that of a 100year flood. According to FEMA (1998), flash floods due to dam break rank first 6 among the flood-related deaths in the United States. Dam break, that releases large volumes of water in a short period of time, can produce an extremely dangerous flood

In the 1970s, four dam break induced flash floods in a five-year period killed 570 people (FEMA, 1998)

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situation. Generation of inundation maps due such dam break provide crucial information about the spatial extent of uncertain flood situations (other than a100year flood) and offer invaluable assistance to the land use planning authorities managing the floodplains. The current study focuses on developing a planning support system that provides inundation risk information in a dam break scenario under various (climate change) rainfall events rather than assessing inundation risk based on statistically evaluated 100-year flood. The usage of geospatial technologies in the current study, such as Arc GIS and Arc IMS, facilitates the flood maps information to be disseminated effectively and allow the users to overlay additional digital information of the critical facilities and assists in identifying or assessing the potential impact of various dam break flood levels at various rainfall events. Status of Flood Information tools in Hinds County According to Hinds County authorities, the county, with a history of flooding events, is subject to periodic inundations due to the occupancy of the uses on the inadequately elevated lands in the flood plains (Hinds County, 2009). In order to regulate these land use developmental activities, the Hinds County has taken participation in the FEMAs NFIP program. In other words, the formulation of the regulations will be based on a 100-year flood inundation zone. As a part of the NFIP program, Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA) and the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ) have jointly signed the Mississippi mapping activity statement along with FEMA in 2003. According to MDEQ (2009),

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the preparation of the 100-year inundation zone for the Hinds County will be completed by late 2010. In this view, inundation maps generated using various rainfall scenarios (as a result of climate change effects) will provide more scientific and reliable information in the formulation of regulations. The generation of the dam break inundation risk, especially for the Ross Barnett Reservoir which is identified as a high hazard dam, can provide decisive information to the City of Jackson 7 (which is located at the downstream of the Ross Barnett Reservoir) in regulating their developmental activities. The present study aims at developing a planning support system that generates various inundation risk levels by coupling dam break scenarios with various rainfall events induced by climate changes effects. Usage of geospatial technologies (Arc GIS and Arc IMS) in the current study, allows the authorities as well as the public to access the information about their communities and thus can assist in empowering them to participate in the decision making process. Chapter Summary Chapter 2 provided an insight of the significance of flood planning support system in the process of urban planning. The literature indicated that information generated using planning support system provided a usable quantification of forecasting uncertainty that assists the planning process to make most effective informed decisions under uncertainty on the future flooding events. The review stated that a flood planning support system helps in transforming information into knowledge through visualization and analysis and assists the public or concerned authorities to support the planning decisions with the acquired knowledge. It is
7

The Capital of the State of Mississippi situated in Hinds County

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understood from the literature that employment of flood planning support systems in the planning process helps in exposing the long term threats posed by flood hazards and facilitates the present planning activities to design in a futuristic nature and work towards retaining the functionalities of social, economical and environmental resources viable in the face of hazard. The chapter, by further discussing some examples of the communities that are employing flood information tools in their planning activities, acknowledged the role of FEMA NFIP programs in building safer communities and explained the significance of current research over FEMAs contribution. The status of Hinds County in using flood information tools is discussed at the end.

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CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY Research problem and related flood simulation models As the current research focuses on the spatial identification and vulnerability assessment of the flood hazard at various rainfall events, simulation of the flood scenarios are required to be conducted in a geospatial environment. In other words, the models should facilitate the capability of applying GIS to the flood simulations and assist in analyzing the flood levels or extents spatially. GIS helps in visualizing flood simulations in an interactive setting, where the spatial impact of various scenarios can be viewed along with the location of critical facilities and thus helps in assessing the regions vulnerability towards a flood event efficiently (Bernardo, 1994). In this connection, Bajwa and Tim (2002) describes the 1-dimensional HECGeo models (HEC GeoHMS and HEC GeoRAS developed by US Army Corps of Engineers) as a geospatial hydrology tool kit that recognizes the power of Arc GIS environment in generating and visualizing flood simulations. The Geo HMS and Geo RAS products developed by US Army Corps of Engineers enable these flood simulation models to be compatible with Arc GIS environment and provide valuable tools to evaluate impacts associated with flood plains (Cameron, 2001). Hick and Peacock (2006) strengthen the suitability and capability of HEC RAS models in

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simulating floods by stating that the HEC RAS flood simulations, examined through an application, shows accuracy comparable to more sophisticated hydraulic models. Description of HEC HMS and HEC RAS models In view of the suitability, compatibility (with GIS) and availability (free download of the software), the present study employs the HEC models developed by US Army Corps of Engineers to Estimate inflows at the dam for various rainfall events using HEC HMS Simulate various dam break flood scenarios for the estimated inflows using HEC RAS. HEC HMS Model to estimate inflows for various rainfall events According to US Army Corps of Engineers, HEC HMS 3.3 is designed to simulate rainfall runoff process for dendritic watershed systems (US Army Corps of Engineers, 2008). Using the HEC HMS components, the hydrological response of region to a rainfall event can be estimated and the corresponding inflows for any stream or a river in that region can be obtained. The main components of the HMS model comprise of a basin component, meteorological component and control specifications. Basin Component. The basin component represents the physical characteristics of the region in terms of topology, soil characteristics and the location of hydrologic elements. List of hydrologic elements that are represented in the basin are presented below: Sub basin - Represents the physical watershed

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Reach- Receives inflow from upstream hydrologic element and conveys stream flows downstream in the basin.

Junction- Combines stream flows received from upstream elements Source- Introduces flow into the basin Sink- Represents the outlet of the watershed Reservoir- Detention and attenuation of inflows received from upstream elements.

Diversion- Represents inflows leaving the main channel.

The basin component is developed by adding and connecting these hydrologic elements using HEC Geo HMS which comes as an extension in Arc GIS. According to US Army Corps of Engineers (2008), the developed basin component uses mathematical models to describe physical processes in the region. HEC Geo HMS. In a geospatial (Arc GIS) environment, HEC Geo HMS 11 analyzes the digital terrain information of the region to generate the drainage paths and sub basin boundaries (US Army Corps of Engineers, 2008) that are needed to simulate rainfall-runoff process. In other words, Geo HMS facilitates the development of the basin component (the hydrologic data structure of the region) by processing the digital data to determine the sub-basin boundaries, river characteristics (lengths, slopes, area) and constructs a hydrologic schematic map of the basin that represents the hydrologic response of the region (possible stream flows) to a rainfall event. The schematic map of the hydrologic elements (basin component) from HECGeo HMS is then exported to HEC-HMS, where the actual rainfall-runoff

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simulation is performed by establishing the meteorological component and control specifications. The flow of processes are shown in Figure:3.1
HEC Geo HMS HEC HMS Output as Stream Flows Basin Component (Spatial characteristics) Meteorological Component (Rainfall Data) Control Specifications (Simulation time) Figure:3.1 Flow of process in a Rainfall-runoff simulation using HEC Geo HMS and HEC HMS

Meteorological Component. The meteorological component is established in HEC HMS after importing the basin component from Geo HMS. In this component, the rainfall event is determined (by giving the intensity and time period as inputs), for which the HMS simulations calculate the corresponding stream flows in a region. Control specifications. The time span for the simulations is set in the control specifications (US Army Corps of Engineers, 2008). Once the basin component is imported and meteorological event is established, information about the starting date and time, ending date and time and computing time step are determined by control specifications. By integrating these three components, the present study aims at estimating the stream flows at the Ross Barnett Reservoir for various rainfall events that are predicted in the face of climate change effects. HEC RAS Model to simulate flood for various inflows HEC-RAS 4.0, a flood simulation model developed by the US Army Corps of Engineers, performs one dimensional hydraulic (water flow) calculation in natural rivers/streams and constructed open channels (USACE, 2008). HEC RAS model

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contains four 1-dimensional analysis components which includes steady flow and unsteady flow models designed to compute flood simulations. The advanced features of unsteady flow model, the dam break analysis, enables the model to perform more complex flood simulations with an easy to use interface. The steady and unsteady flow components (steady/unsteady/dam break) require geometric data (the physical characteristics of the region), boundary conditions (stream flow information) and dam breach parameters (for a dam break analysis) to run the flood simulations. Geometric Data. Geometric data represents the physical characteristics of the region. The geospatial data is processed by establishing the connectivity of the river system on the topology/land use/structural data (bridges, dam etc) of the region using HEC Geo RAS which comes as an extension in Arc GIS. HEC Geo RAS. HEC Geo RAS 4.0 allows the preparation of geometric data for import into HEC-RAS and processes simulation results exported from HEC-RAS (USACE, 2009). The flow of preprocessing and post processing of the data is shown in Figure:3.2. HEC Geo RAS requires an existing digital elevation model (DEM) of the region in the form of Arc GIS TIN format for this pre and post processing functions.
HEC Geo RAS Pre Processing (Geometric Data) Post processing of HEC RAS output Flood inundation map in Arc GIS HEC RAS Steady Flow Unsteady Flow

Figure:3.2 Flow of preprocessing and post processing of the data using HEC Geo RAS

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In the preprocessing of the geometric data, line themes such as stream centerline, flow paths, banks, cross-sectional lines, inline structures (dams), levees etc are digitized and associated with the topology (TIN) and the land use of the region. This association of the details of the elevation and the land use category with the line themes helps in performing the post-processing of the HEC RAS outputs as obtaining the spatial extent and depth levels of the flood, displaying themes of inundated areas for flood plain mapping and management (Cameron, 2001). Steady Flow. According to US Army Corps of Engineers (2008), steady flow calculation is intended for calculating flood water profiles for steady graduated varied flow. Table 3.1 shows the data required for a steady flow flood simulation. This model is widely used in the flood plain management studies to delineate the sensitive areas prone to flood waters. Table:3.1 Data required for a steady flow flood simulation
Geometric Data Boundary Conditions Physical Characteristics A normal depth at the downstream (difference between upstream and downstream elevations- the slope) Stream flow values at the upstream

Discharge information

Unsteady flow. This component is intended to perform 1-dimensional flood simulation on rivers/streams with unsteady flows. The advanced features of this component, dam break analysis, enables to simulate breach induced flood scenarios. Table 3.2 shows the data required by the model and the same geometric data files used by the steady flow can be fed into the unsteady flow calculations.

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Table:3.2 Data required for an unsteady flow or a dam break flood simulation
Geometric Data Boundary Conditions Initial Conditions Dam break Parameters Physical characteristics of the region Upstream end to be modeled for a stream flow Initial conditions at the beginning of the simulation Physical parameters of the breach size , location and type

Description of Geo Spatial Technologies- GIS and Arc IMS The capability of handling and analyzing spatially distributed data by GIS makes the integration of GIS with the flood simulation models more significant and assists in reporting the results in a customized manner. Zergera (2003) states that the integration of GIS in flood simulation models can be of two types: 1. Total integration: Support the model to carry out the whole simulation processes in GIS environment. 2. Partial integration: Supports pre-processing by formatting the data into a suitable format for simulation and post-processing by customizing the data for flood mapping and other report generations. For the purpose of the study, Arc GIS 9.2 version developed by Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) is integrated (partial integration) with the HEC models to simulate flood scenarios, visualize the results and perform the impact assessments. For the process of information exchange web-based GIS functionality Arc Internet Mapping Service 3.0 (ArcIMS developed by ESRI) is used to disseminate the geo spatial flood inundation information on the internet which can be shared by the decision-making authorities as well as the public.

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Arc Internet Mapping Service ArcIMS 3.0 is a powerful internet mapping solution that facilitates in building and deploy GIS services and geospatial files to a broad audience (ESRI, 2001). In presenting the geospatial data on the internet, ArcIMS provides two major functionalities: 1. Enables the incorporation of local GIS data with the ArcIMS layers. In the present study, the facility of integrating of data from multiple sources helps in assessing the vulnerability of the region to a flood event. 2. Helps in querying the data by allowing the people to derive required information from the data layers. ArcIMS Manager. The main component of ArcIMS is the ArcIMS manager which helps in putting together the spatial information in a web-based format by combining the following three stand-alone applications. 1. ArcIMS Author. 2. ArcIMS Designer 3. ArcIMS Administrator Arc IMS Author. The functionality of ArcIMS Author is to create a MapService by adding the data files and setting the map properties to allow the content of the data files to be published on the Internet.. An online map is thus generated by creating a MapService. Arc IMS Designer. ArcIMS Designer assists in designing the web pages through which the data files will to be viewed ultimately.

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ArcIMS Administrator. The functionality of ArcIMS Administrator is to controls the operation of the web site. With the combination of these applications, ArcIMS will help the flood planning support system to disseminate flood inundation information on the internet, where different organizations or authorities can access and apply the results to their respective fields while formulating any regulations. Research Design Following figure (3.3) shows the flow of processes in the adopted methodology.
Collection of Data

Establishment of Dam Break model Obtain Stream flood data using HEC Geo HMS and HEC HMS for various climatic scenarios

Preparation of Thematic Layers

Preprocessing of Spatial data using HEC-Geo RAS

Dam break simulation using HEC RAS for various climatic scenarios Post processing spatial data using HEC GeoRAS

Overlaying of flood inundation maps on the thematic layers

Development of Flood information tool using ARC IMS

Figure:3.3 Flow Chart showing the methodology followed the study

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Data Collection The current research is a quantitative case study using simulation scenario methods. The research used simulation methods Hydrological Engineering CenterHydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) and Hydrological Engineering Center River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) models and depended on the secondary data information collected from various sources. Data is collected from the following list of sources: GIS base layers, Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Mississippi Automated Resource Information System (MARIS) Rainfall data for a period of 100 years (1908-2008)- National Climate Data Center (NCDC) River/stream data and their flow characteristics in the study region United States Geological Survey (USGS), National Hydrography Dataset (NHD). Soil data National Resource Conservation Services (NRCS) Inventory data on the Key facilities - Hazards U.S. Multi Hazards (HAZUSMH ) (FEMA) Block population, Road network, Housing units (shape files) MARIS Description of the Steps Involved 1. Phase I: Collection of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data for the Ross Barnett downstream region a. The DEM data for the study area is converted to Triangular Irregular Networks (TIN) format for the study region.

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2. Phase II: Establishment and implementation of dam break model a. Scenarios are determined for the average, PMP, PMP+50% and PMP+100% rainfall events. b. Using HEC-HMS and HEC Geo HMS, the inflows to Ross Barnett reservoir are calculated for the simulation scenarios at various rainfall events. The calculated inflow data is adjusted by adding the difference with the actual USGS data. c. The dam break model is established for simulation scenarios using HECRAS and HEC Geo-RAS model designed by US Army Corps of Engineers as it is compatible with Arc GIS. d. Using HEC-Geo RAS, the geometric data is prepared for the study region. The preprocessed geospatial data is then exported to HEC-RAS. e. The processing of the flood simulation in HEC-RAS is done in 3 stages as 1) Steady Flow simulation, 2) unsteady flow simulation and then 3) Dam break simulation. In order to run these simulations, the boundary conditions, initial conditions and dam breach parameters are set in the model through which the stream flow data is incorporated. f. Upon successful implementation of the simulations, the HEC RAS output is exported to HEC-Geo RAS for post-processing of the output. g. The flood inundated areas is delineated in HEC Geo RAS by post processing the imported output through which the spatial extent and depth grid of the inundated zone are obtained.

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3. Phase III: Preparation of thematic layer maps a) The thematic layers for the study region are mapped in terms of key facilities, road network, land use categories, population and housing units using Arc GIS 4. Phase IV: Integration/Overlaying of data a. A visual presentation of flood water in combination with thematic maps of the study region is produced by importing and overlaying the HECRAS/GEO-RAS output. b. The increase in the inundation risk levels at various rainfall events are analyzed by comparing the simulated scenarios in terms of 1. 2. 3. 4. The extent and depth of areas Impact on cultural and historical factors Impact on social and infrastructural facilities Impact on current planning and developmental activities.

c. Vulnerable blocks under various scenarios will be identified by calculating integrated risk. 5. Phase V: Development of an Arc IMS web application a. The results of the integrated layers for simulated scenarios are loaded on to the web server and an application in Arc IMS is developed. b. The components of the application are designed enable the decisionmaking authorities and the public to visualize the spatial extent and water depths of the inundation zones.

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Study Limitations The study is confined to the available secondary data available. The data was interpolated data where ever it was not available. The study is restricted to the limitations of the simulation models. As the Prediction of the future land use/cover changes involves consideration of various economic, social and environmental factors (which is out of the scope of this research), the study limits or assumes that no significant changes occur in the study period and considers the present land cover data for all the scenarios. Chapter Summary Chapter three presented the relevance of selecting simulation models and gives a description of the models used in the research. The HEC-HMS, HEC RAS models and geospatial technologies are discussed in detail. Further, the chapter mentions about the secondary data sources and describes in detail about the steps involved in the research design. The limitations of the study are described at the end.

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CHAPTER 4 DATA ANALYSIS Determination of the Precipitation events for simulations The historical precipitation data for the study region for a 100-year period is collected from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). The available mean monthly precipitation data for the central Mississippi 8 region (1908-2007) is downloaded from NCDC website (http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/CDO/CDODivisionalSelect.jsp). The present study involves simulation of the dam break flood inundation in an average rainfall event and an increase of 10% and 25% on this event. These simulated scenarios, which are considered as base flooding events (NIWA, 2005), provide the inundation risks on a typical scale that have a high possibility of occurrence on any given day in a year. According to the IPCC report (2007), the evidences of the climate changes can be observed not only in terms of increase in the average rainfall, but also in terms of increase in the intensity9 of precipitation events, the probable maximum precipitation (PMP), which is of high concern towards flooding problems. University of Miami (2008) report states that the intensity of the rainfall event should be considered as the significant threat to the increased risk of flooding. The 100 year

Hinds, Rankin, Madison, Yazoo, Scott, Copiah and Simpson counties

The greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration that is physically possible over a given area at a particular geographical location at a certain time of year.

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rainfall data of the central Mississippi region reveals similar trend as an inclination in the intensity of precipitation events can be observed after 1970s (Figure: 4.1).

Figure: 4.1 Intensity of the rainfall events after 1970 in the Central Mississippi region

Interesting results, which depict an extreme worst scenario, may be generated if flood simulation can be done for the PMP event that had occurred in the past 100 years. PMP, the maximum precipitation amount that has occurred in a month, can be selected from the rainfall data. FEMA (2004) describes this scenario as incremental hazard identification and portrays as the most severe combination of critical meteorological and hydrologic conditions that are reasonably possible in a region (FEMA, 2004). The average precipitation event calculated from100-years historical data is 5.39 inches. An increase of 10% and 25% on the average would be 5.929 and 6.7375 inches respectively. The PMP event has occurred in the month of April 1991 with a recorded rainfall of 16.75 inches. As the flood simulations using PMP event can capture the 10% and 25% increase on the average rainfall events, the study aims to simulate the worst case scenarios (that could happen due to climate change effects) and an increase of 50% and 100% on the PMP event is included. Table:4.1 shows the rainfall events determined for the flood simulation purposes.
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Table:4.1 Rainfall events for the simulation of dam break induced floods
Event Average Event PMP PMP+50% PMP+100% Rainfall(inches) 5.39 16.75 25.125 33.5

Development of HEC HMS model The HEC HMS model is developed to perform rainfallrunoff simulations in order to calculate the inflows for the determined rainfall events (Table:4.1) on the Pearl River flowing through the Ross Barnett Reservoir, Mississippi. As discussed in chapter 3, HEC HMS model requires development of three components (Basin component, Meteorological component and Control specifications) for the simulation purposes. The study presents the description on the development of these components according to the sequence of the procedure needed to simulate HEC HMS. Basin Component using HEC GeoHMS Basin component which represents the physical characteristics (by connecting the hydrological elements) of the study region is developed using HEC Geo HMS in an Arc GIS environment. HEC GeoHMS is downloaded from the US Army Corps of Engineers website. The basic functionality of HEC Geo HMS in developing the basin component is to create input files for hydrological modeling with HEC HMS.

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The process of generating basin component by HEC Geo HMS involves extracting the spatial data information of the region using the Main view and Project view tools. These tools, in order to extract information, require preprocessing of certain raster and vector datasets which need to be derived from the terrain, soil and land use data of the region. For the purpose of preprocessing the spatial data, Arc Hydro tools 9 (that works with Arc GIS 9.2 version) are used in this study. The description of data preprocessing for the main view and project view tools is described below: Preprocessing of the Data. In the preprocessing of the data, the terrain characteristics of the study region are collected and derived by analyzing the terrain, soil and land use data. Collection of the DEM and Stream network. As the study is intended to calculate the inflows from the upstream at Ross Barnett Reservoir under various rainfall events, DEM at 10meter resolution for the upstream region of Ross Barnett Reservoir (includes Madison, Hinds and Rankin County) is collected from MARIS (Figure 4.2).

Figure: 4.2 DEM of the study region (upstream of Ross Barnett Reservoir)

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The stream network (shape file) for the study region is downloaded from the NHD USGS Website (http://nhdgeo.usgs.gov/viewer.htm). All the spatial files are assigned to a projected coordinate system NAD_1983_Transverse_Mercator. Terrain data. The terrain data is derived under the following two steps: 1. Terrain pre-processing: Involves delineating streams and watersheds from DEM. The sequential steps that are followed by the study while performing terrain pre processing (Arc GIS 9.2) are described as follows: DEM reconditioning: This function modifies the DEM by burning the stream network onto it so that the profile of elevation data along streams is captured. The stream network is imposed on the DEM and using AGREE 10 method in DEM Reconditioning tool (with Stream buffer set to 5, smooth drop/raise set to 10 and sharp drop/raise (DEM Z-unit) set to 10) the modified DEM, called as the AgreeDEM is obtained. Fill sinks: The function of Fill sinks is to adjust the elevation level of some cells in the DEM which are trapped by higher elevation cells so as to facilitate the flow of water. Using Fill Sinks function from DEM manipulation tool (with Fil threshold set to 10), the input AgreeDEM is processed for these modifications and an output DEM called Fil is obtained.

Developed at Center for Research in Water Resources at the University of Texas at Austin (Merwade, 2008).

10

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Flow direction: This function calculates the flow direction for a given grid and each cell in the grid is assigned one value which represents the direction of steepest descent from that cell. Using Flow Direction function from terrain preprocessing tool, the cell flow values are calculated for the Fil DEM and an output called Fdr is obtained with eight numbers (1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64 and128) in the legend representing the flow direction.

Flow accumulation: This function computes the number of upstream cells draining to a given cell. Using Flow accumulation function from terrain preprocessing tool, the Fac DEM (Figure: 4.3) is obtained.

Stream definition: The function of Stream definition is to classify all cells with flow accumulation greater than the user-defined threshold as cells belonging to the stream network (USACE, 2003). Using stream definition function from terrain preprocessing tools (with area set to 25 sq.km threshold area, the Fac DEM is processed and an output called Str grid with a value of 1 assigned to all the cells in the input (Fac) is obtained.

Stream segmentation: This function facilitates in dividing the stream into segments which represent the junctions, links in the stream network. Using the stream segmentation function from the terrain processing tool (by giving inputs of flow direction and stream definition functions and leaving optional fields to Null), the stream link grid is obtained.

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Catchment grid delineation: The functionality of this tool is to delineate catchment grid by creating a grid with cells carrying value corresponding to the value of stream segment that drains that area. Using catchment grid delineation function from terrain preprocessing tools (with flow direction and stream link grid as inputs), the catchment grid called as cat is obtained.

Catchment polygon processing: This function converts the raster data to vector format. By using catchment polygon processing from terrain preprocessing, the catchment grid delineation (cat) raster data is converted to catchment polygon feature class (Figure: 4.3).

Drainage line processing: The raster data type stream link grid is converted to a vector format. By using drainage line processing function from terrain preprocessing tool (by giving inputs Stream link grid and flow direction grid) the raster data is converted to drainage line feature class (Figure: 4.3).

Adjoint catchment processing: In order to enhance the computational performance and data extraction, adjoint catchment processing is executed. Using this function from terrain preprocessing tools (with drainage line and catchment feature class as inputs); the upstream catchments are aggregated and stored in a feature class.

Drainage point processing: The functionality of this tool assists in generating drainage points for individual catchments. Using drainage point processing from terrain preprocessing tools (with inputs as Flow

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accumulation grid, catchment grid, catchment feature class), the drainage point feature class is obtained.

Figure: 4.3 Catchment Polygon with Drainage line

2. Watershed processing: Involves retrieving basic watershed properties such as area, slope, flow length etc. The watershed processing depends on the data derived from the terrain processing. The sequential steps involved in this process are as follows: Batch watershed delineation: Using batch point generation and batch

watershed delineation from watershed processing tools, an outlet point on the Flow accumulation grid is created and the corresponding watershed is delineated for that point. Interactive point delineation: As the study of interest is to obtain

inflow at the upstream of Ross Barnett Reservoir, using interactive point delineation tool, a point of interest (at the upstream point of Ross Barnett Reservoir) is created along the drainage line (Figure: 4.4). The inflow at this point of interest at various rainfall events will be used for the flood simulation purposes.

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Figure: 4.4 Point of interest upstream of Ross Barnett reservoir

Batch sub watershed delineation: The sub watersheds have been

delineated with the point of interest feature class as input using batch sub watershed delineation functionality from watershed processing. Flow path tracing: The functionality of this tool to define the flow of

the path from a selected point to the outlet of the catchment. Using the flow path tracing icon, the flow path is determined. CN Grid. The Curve Number is a method to determine storm run off based on the land use, soil and soil group (USCS, 1986). The soil and land use characteristics of the region are retrieved by generating the curve numbers of the watershed in the study region. The SCS Curve Number Grid (CN Grid) is used to obtain these parameters. The land use data for the Madison, Hinds and Rankin County is collected from USGS website (http://seamless.usgs.gov). It is reclassified into 4 categories (water, medium residential, and forest and agricultural) and converted to a polygon feature class. The soil data is downloaded from the NRCS website for the Madison, Hinds and Rankin County. The soil tables and properties associated with the spatial data are provided in text files by NRCS (ASCII delimited files). In order to make this data
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usable in GIS, the tabular data is imported and organized using MS Access database. The soil group for each polygon is imported from the tabular data and the percentage of the area under each soil group is calculated. By joining the imported tables (through MS Access) with the spatial data, soil code values are assigned to the polygons. Figure: 4.5 shows the organized soil data (clipped to the study region) that need to be used in preparing the Curve Number Grid (CN Grid).

Figure: 4.5 Soil and Land use data for the study region

Finally, the processing of spatial data for extracting the curve numbers is done by merging the soil data and land use data. CN-Lookup table is created and the curve number grid is generated by giving the CN-Lookup table, merged soil-land use data and the DEM as inputs. Figure: 4.6 shows the CN Grid dataset prepared for the study region.

Figure: 4.6 CN Grid obtained for the study region

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Creating Basin component. The preprocessed spatial data is used for creating the basin component. Using the Main view tool in HEC GeoHMS, the project area and project point are created by giving the extraction method as original stream definition. Using the project view tool, the basin characteristics (River length, river slope, basin slope, longest flow path, basin centroid, basin centroid elevation, centroid flow path) and parameters are extracted. The hydrological parameters/methods that will be used in the HMS model are determined for the basin by giving the inputs of Loss method as SCS, Transform method as SCS and Route method as Muskingum. The sub basin parameters are assigned by giving CN Grid file as input using sub basin parameters tool and CN lag method is determined by giving the longest flow path and sub basin as inputs. The input files for HMS are created by converting the units to HMS units and the data is checked for any consistency problems (Figure: 4.7).

Figure: 4.7 HMS Consistency checking

As no errors were reported, the schematic network is created by using HMS Schematic from HMS tool. The nodes and links are generated from the inputs and a basin model is created along with the legend representing the hydrological elements in the basin. The geospatial information for the schematic network is retained by using the add coordinates from HMS tool and the data is prepared for HMS export by using the project set-up function which copies all the HMS files to a desired location. Figure: 4.8 shows the basin component exported to HMS model. After importing the
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basin component to HEC HMS, the parameters of the sub basins are edited Loss method to Initial and constant (includes rainfall losses absorbed by the ground) with Initial loss as 5mm and Constant rate as 2 mm/hour and Transform method to SCS unit hydrograph (converts excess rainfall to runoff). The HEC HMS User Manual mentions (when data is not available) a range of Loss value (0.1 -0.2 inches for urban areas) and a range of constant rate values based on the soil type is provided in table 5.1 (HEC HMS user manual can be used in the HEC HMS model. From the soil data collected for the counties from NRCS, it is observed that the majority of the soil code type is of C type. The range for this soil code is 0.05-0.15 inch/hr. So for the Constant rate, a value of 0.07inch/hr which is same as 2mm/hr is used and for the Loss value, a value of 0.19inches which is same as 5mm was used in HEC HMS model for the study area. The reach routing is set to Muskingum method (Muskingum K as 0.853 and X as 0.15, the reach upstream of Ross Barnett Reservoir, the X is set as 0). The reservoir component is added in the HEC HMS interface. Connections are established to the reservoir by assigning the downstream elements in the basin model. The storage method for the Ross Barnett Reservoir is chosen as elevation storage method and the elevation storage table (collected from NOAA) is provided using paired data manager. The initial elevation is set at 296ft.

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Figure: 4.8 Basin component Exported to HEC HMS

Meteorological component With the basin component generated, the meteorological model was created using Meteorological model manager in HEC HMS. The precipitation type of frequency storm was chosen through which the determined rainfall events are given as inputs for the rainfall-runoff simulations. The storm is configured by selecting the probability as 10 percent, input and output type as annual duration, intensity duration as 5 minutes, and storm duration as 1 day and intensity position as 50 percent. The determined rainfall events (5.39, 16.75, 25.125, 33.5 inches) are given for each run (Figure 4.9).

Fig: 4.9 Meteorological model configured in HEC HMS

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Control Specifications The control specifications are configured for a 4 day simulation to capture the runoff. The start and end date of the simulation and a computational time interval of 10 minutes are mentioned.

Figure: 4.10 Successful computation of HEC HMS simulation

The simulation runs are created for all the four determined rainfall events and inflows are obtained from the summary table for the determined upstream point of Ross Barnett Reservoir. Table:4.2 shows the modeled flows obtained for each determined rainfall event. Table:4.2 Inflow obtain by HEC HMS simulations for the determined rainfall events
Rainfall Event Average Rainfall Event PMP PMP+50% PMP+100% Inches 5.39 16.75 25.125 33.5 Modeled Flow(cfs) 4272 14137.7 21293.2 28434.7

Description of the simulation scenarios For the determined rainfall events, inflows at the Ross Barnett Reservoir are calculated using HEC HMS (rainfall-runoff) simulations. As the calculations are performed using the study regions Digital Elevation Model (DEM), any discrepancies in the inflow data (that might occur due to the runoffs accumulating from upstream points beyond the study region) will be handled by adding the difference between the modeled inflows and the actual USGS inflow (obtained from the available USGS station for a similar rainfall event) to the inflow data calculated
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from simulation methods. Table:4.2 shows the possible scenarios for the determined rainfall events. Table:4.3 Description of scenarios for the determined rainfall events
Inflow Modeled Inflow + Difference in modeled AVG Inflow and USGS inflow Scenario-1 Scenario-2 Scenario-3 Scenario-4 Modeled Inflow + Difference in modeled PMP Inflow and USGS inflow Scenario-5 Scenario-6 Scenario-7 Scenario-8 Modeled Inflow + Difference in modeled PMP+50% Inflow and USGS inflow Scenario-9 Scenario-10 Scenario-11 Scenario-12 Modeled Inflow + Difference in modeled PMP+100% Inflow and USGS inflow

Rainfall Event

Average Rainfall (PMP) PMP+50% PMP+100%

Scenario-13 Scenario-14 Scenario-15 Scenario-16

From the Table:4.3, it can be observed that each rainfall event has four scenarios. The scenarios other than the highlighted ones represent a situation where the region beyond the study area receives a different rainfall event. In fact, scenario1, scenario-6, scenario-11 and scenario-16 (the highlighted cells) represent the trend from the possible least case scenario (where the study area and the region beyond receives average rainfall event) to the possible worst case scenario (study area and the region beyond receives PMP+100% rainfall event) that could happen due to climate change effects. Calibration of HEC HMS model The modeled inflows (obtained using HEC HMS) are checked for any discrepancies with the observed USGS inflow data at Ross Barnett Reservoir for a similar rainfall event. The modeled values are lower by 11-17% from the USGS
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inflow data. USGS is maintaining the outflow records of the Ross Barnett Reservoir at its downstream point 02486000 USGS station. According to the Pearl River Water Supply District, which manages the Ross Barnett Reservoir operations, the inflow received from the upstream (until 50000 cfs) will be totally released (inflow=outflow) to the downstream in order to maintain the reservoir pool elevation at 296 ft. In other words, the outflow data at the downstream point of Ross Barnett Reservoir (with a reservoir pool elevation at 296ft) can be considered as the inflow received from the upstream. From the records available from 02486000 USGS station, for a rainfall event of 5.5 inches (which is almost equal to the average rainfall event of 5.39 inches), an inflow of 5166 cfs was recorded. To assume the inflows for the PMP (as no inflow record is available), PMP+50% and PMP+100% events (which did not occur in the past), a trend line representing the relation between rainfall and inflow is plotted from the collected data. Figure: 4.11 shows the equation of the trend line.
Rainfall-Inflow trend line at Ross Barnett Reservoir
20000 15000 y = 1013.4x - 948.26

Inflow

Rainfall 10000 5000 0 Linear (Rainfall)

2. 61 2. 35 3. 12

Figure: 4.11 Rainfall-inflow trend line at Ross Barnett Reservoir

While the average rainfall event inflow is determined from the USGS inflow records, the inflows for the PMP, PMP+50% and PMP+100% events are calculated

3. 4 5. 52 5. 53 5. 41 6. 21 5. 66 4. 26 5. 73 7. 38 9. 37 8. 61 8. 03 7. 51 7. 58
Rainfall

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by using the trend line 11 relation ship. Table:4.4 shows the modeled and USGS inflow trends for each rainfall event. Table:4.4 Difference between Modeled Inflow and USGS inflow
Inflow Rainfall Avg 5.39542 PMP 16.75 PMP+50% 25.125 PMP+100% 33.5 HMS USGS Difference

4272 14137.7 21293.2 28434.7

5166 16026.19 24513.415 33000.64

894 1888.49 3220.215 4565.94

The difference between modeled output and the observed output may be due to the fact that calculations are performed using the study regions Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The inflow that might occur due to the runoffs accumulating from upstream points beyond the study region is not taken into account. This discrepancy is addressed to a certain extent by adding the difference between the modeled inflows and the actual USGS inflow (obtained from the available USGS station for a similar rainfall event) to the inflow data calculated from simulation methods. In other words, the USGS flows are used. With the difference calculated between HEC HMS modeled inflows and USGS records, the inflows for the scenarios are determined and presented in Table:4.5.

For most hydrological models, such calculation may require fine refinement of the models. But for the purpose of risk assessment for urban planning (in terms of spatial extent), the study expects the calculation of inflows from trend line relationship to have insignificant impact on the final result.

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Table:4.5 Inflows determined for the scenarios to be simulated using HEC RAS
Inflow Rainfall Event Average Rainfall (PMP) PMP+50% PMP+100% Modeled Inflow + 894 Scenario-1 (4272+894) Scenario-2 (14137.7+894) Scenario-3 (21293.2++894) Scenario-4 (28434.7++894) Modeled Inflow + 1888.49 Scenario-5 (4272+1888.49) Scenario-6 (14137.7+1888.49) Scenario-7 (21293.2+1888.49) Scenario-8 (28434.7+1888.49) Modeled Inflow + 3220.215 Scenario-9 (4272+3220.215) Scenario-10 (14137.7+3220.215) Scenario-11 (21293.2+3220.215) Scenario-12 (28434.7+3220.215) Modeled Inflow + 4565.94 Scenario-13 (4272+4565.94) Scenario-14 (14137.7+4565.94) Scenario-15 (21293.2+4565.94) Scenario-16 (28434.7+4565.94)

Calibration of HEC RAS model All the inputs to the HEC RAS model were prepared by using the study area spatial files (DEM, river network etc.,USGS land cover) in the geometric file by using HEC geo RAS. The bridge data, manning values are used from the data collected from HAZUS-MH and HEC RAS manual respectively. All the user-entered inputs in HEC RAS are given by using the USGS station inflow data and the dam break parameters that are calculated for the Ross Barnett Reservoir by following the rules given in HEC RAS manual (dam height vs breach parameters). The model was validated by comparing the observed data of 1979 flood map with modeled output (which is presented in the appendix). As the output very closely depicts most of the inundated areas, the model simulations were considered to represent flood scenarios.

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Development of HEC RAS models The study uses HEC RAS model to simulate the dam break flood inundation flows for the determined scenarios. The preprocessing of the geometric data (to extract the physical characteristics of the study region) and the post-processing of the outputs (to visualize the flooding impact) that are required by the HEC RAS model processes are done by using HEC Geo RAS. Preprocessing of the spatial data using HEC Geo RAS The geometric data files that represent the physical characteristics of the region are prepared and exported to HEC RAS by the following steps. Conversion of DEM to TIN. The Digital elevation model (DEM) with 10 meter resolution is collected for the Hinds, Rankin and Madison Counties from MARIS. To create the geometric file, the DEM is converted to a TIN (Triangulated Irregular Network) format with NAD_1983_Transverse_Mercator projection. Figure: 4.12 shows the TIN of the study region imposed on the County boundaries.

Figure: 4.12: TIN of the study region

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Creating RAS Layers. The geometric files used in HEC RAS require information on the hydraulic structures and physical attributes of the river. HEC Geo RAS retrieves this information about the attributes by creating RAS layers (using editor tool in Arc GIS). The RAS layers are populated with the physical attribute information by digitizing features in different layers and retrieving associated terrain data. The river Centerline is created by digitizing the Pearl River flowing from the upstream of the Ross Barnett Reservoir to the end of Hinds County (from upstream to downstream). The associated terrain data attributes are populated using RAS geometry functions. The banks and flow paths are digitized (left path followed by the right and looking downstream) and are assigned their respective attribute information. Cross-sectional lines are created to extract the elevation data from the TIN (terrain data). Cross sectional lines are the key inputs to the HEC RAS simulations as the intersection of these lines with river centerline and flow paths carry crucial information such as location of bank stations, downstream reach lengths and manning values (land use codes). The cross sectional lines are digitized perpendicular to the river centerline (from left to right looking downstream) with an approximate distance of 100 feet between the lines. According to the HEC RAS user manual, the lake area upstream of the dam can either be modeled with cross sections or by using a storage area. If cross-sections are used, an unsteady flow from upstream (which includes the pool area) to the downstream will be performed by HEC RAS simulations. The study uses cross-section method to represent the pool area. Using RAS geometry function,

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the attributes of the cross-sectional lines are populated with the elevation, river profile, bank stations and reach lengths. The Bridge and ineffective flow areas are created (by looking at the aerial photographs of the Hinds and Rankin County collected from MARIS) using editor tools in Arc GIS. Under Levees layer, the East Jackson and the Jackson levee are digitized and the profiles are completed by retrieving the attribution information using RAS geometry functions. The inline structure layer is created and populated with the river profile, bank stations and elevation data information. The upstream cross section distance and top width of the structure (46ft) are added to the attribute information. HEC RAS simulations require each cross-sectional line to carry a manning n value (land use type) in the geometric file. For this purpose, the land use data (NLCD 2001 land use/land cover data) is downloaded from the USGS (http://seamless.usgs.gov). The land use categories are reclassified into open water, developed open land, urbanized land, barren land, vegetation, crops/grassland and wetlands and are represented by polygons. The corresponding manning values (as provided in HEC RAS user manual) are assigned for each polygon and imported to the land use layer in HEC Geo RAS (Figure: 4.13).

Figure: 4.13 Land Use map for the study region

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Using RAS geometry functions, the manning values are extracted and allocated to the cross-sectional lines in the geometry file. Upon successful creation of these layers, the geometric data is exported to HEC RAS for simulating the determined scenarios. Simulations in HEC RAS Before proceeding to the actual simulation runs, the preprocessed geometric file imported by the HEC RAS needs certain adjustments to account for the limitations of the software. In HEC RAS, the maximum number of elevation points that a cross section can allow is 500. By applying the cross-section point filter, the cross sections with more than 500 points are adjusted. As there is a limitation on the number of manning values that a cross-section can carry (20 as limit), the cross sections with manning n values more than 20 are identified and the Reduce to L Ch R tool is applied to adjust the manning n values to the left , channel and Right n values. The bridge data (collected from HAZUS MH) and the inline structure gate data (10 gates of 21 by 40 ft) are entered in the HEC RAS interface. Figure: 4.14 shows the imported and adjusted geometric file in HEC RAS.

Figure: 4.14 Geometric file in HEC RAS

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Before entering the dam breach information, the study performed a steady flow simulation in order to check for any errors. Upon successful simulation of the steady flow run (Figure: 4.15), the dam breach parameters are determined.

Figure: 4.15 Successful implementation of steady flow simulation

Determination of Breach Parameters. The dam is represented as an inline structure. The study uses the cross-section method to represent the reservoir area. The dam breach parameters are set by following the information provided by USACE HEC RAS user manual in estimating the breach parameters for an earthen dam (breach width to be to 3 times the height of the dam and side slope of the breach to be 0:1 to 1:1 and failure time 0.5 to 4 hr). For the Ross Barnett Reservoir failure, the parameters are set with breach width as 192 ft (height of the dam is 64ft) and side slope of 2:2 and failure time set to 4 hr. The failure mode type is set as piping with an initial piping elevation set to 150. Setting the dam to breach by determining the dam breach parameters, an unsteady flow simulation is performed to capture the inundation downstream of the Ross Barnett Reservoir. Dam break unsteady flow simulation. In order to perform dam break simulation for the determined scenarios, in the unsteady flow editor, two upstream cross sections of the Ross Barnett Reservoir are set for inputs: one cross section as flow hydrograph and the cross section just above the inline structure as IB

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stage/inflow. For each scenario, the corresponding inflow as mentioned in Table:4.6 is given for the cross sections. The missing data was interpolated. An initial condition of 4000cfs was given for all the scenarios. The downstream boundary condition is determined as normal depth (the slope of the river computed from upstream to downstream - 0.001). A simulation time of 7 days was given so as to capture the dam break flood till it reaches the end of the Hinds County. Table:4.6 Scenarios to be simulated with corresponding inflows
Scenario Scenario-1 Scenario -2 Scenario-3 Scenario-4 Scenario-5 Scenario-6 Scenario-7 Scenario-8 Scenario-9 Scenario-10 Scenario-11 Scenario-12 Scenario-13 Scenario-14 Scenario-15 Scenario-16 5166 6160.49 7492.215 8837.94 15031.7 16026.19 17357.915 18703.64 22187.2 23181.69 24513.415 25859.14 29328.7 30323.19 31654.915 33000.64 Inflow (cfs)

All the 16 scenarios are computed with dam set to breach and upon successful simulation run (Figure: 4:16); the maximum water surface profile for each scenario is selected and the results are exported to HEC Geo RAS for visualization.

(a)

(b)

Figure: 4.16 Successful HEC RAS dam breach simulation

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Post processing of HEC RAS results The inundation maps obtained from the HEC RAS simulations for all the 16 scenarios are post processed in HEC Geo RAS. By using RAS mapping tools, the imported HEC RAS results are processed with the TIN (topographic data) of the region to generate the flood water surface extents and the flood water depth files for each scenario. Development of flood planning support system Analysis, visualization and dissemination of the information about the impact of various rainfall scenarios on the inundation risk levels are done by integrating the thematic layers of the region with the post-processed HEC RAS results. In this process, the thematic layers of the region are prepared using Arc GIS and are analyzed by overlaying them with the inundation maps obtained for each scenario. Using Arc IMS, the flood planning support system is developed by publishing the integrated maps on Arc GIS server to disseminate the information about the impact of Ross Barnett Reservoir failure on the downstream (Hinds County) region under climate change effects. Overview of the planning and developmental activities The immediate down stream regions of Ross Barnett Reservoir includes two counties Rankin and Hinds, in which the Mississippi state capital; the City of Jackson is situated. City of Jackson is considered as the economic and cultural hub of the State of Mississippi with its logistical position located in the center of the southeastern United States (City of Jackson). While the accessibility of the city by road, rail, air and water offers a variety of economical and expeditious ways for quick and easy

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access to major cities throughout the world, the city with its rich cultural heritage hosts numerous social and cultural events all through the year. In this view, the department of Planning and Development at the City of Jackson, with a focus to improve the quality of life of its residents, is promoting economic development in the region by assisting various new and existing companies to meet their goals that help in improvising the job opportunities. The planning division also took the responsibility of stimulating housing development while preserving the regions historic neighborhoods and land marks (City of Jackson). Towards achieving a sustainable development, the local government is putting its efforts by investing million of dollars in various economical, social/cultural developmental projects. The cultural and historical value of the region. The state capital can be said as the hub for diverse cultural activities across the state as it has numerous museums, theatres and historical buildings situated in its vicinity. Annually, around 700 events are hosted by the Coliseum and Fairgrounds, located in the downtown region of Jackson, connecting various social, economical and cultural communities across the state. The Mississippi State Fair is one of the South's major fairs with wide range of shows as entertainment, National live stock and Rodeo shows, trade mart, agricultural fairs etc happening in this event. The budget spent on these fairs and the revenue generated to the state government itself shows the socio-economical existing in this region. Recognizing this, the Mississippi State Fairgrounds has been renovated with a 21.5 million dollar investment (Mary Wade, 2005).

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Apart from these fairs and cultural events, numerous museums such as Agricultural and Forest museum (which played a significant role in the history and economy of Mississippi) and the Mississippi Natural science museum at Lake Land Drive, the Old Capitol museum (national heritage landmark) etc, portrays the history and rich cultural heritage of the region. The number of visitors (which cross 100,000 a year to each of these museums (Lynch, 2008)) shows how people are involved and connected to these cultural and historical museums. To enhance tourism, preserve historic buildings and to stabilize neighborhood communities, the department of planning and development has designated five historic districts in the City of Jackson namely: Belhaven Historic District, Belhaven Heights Historic District, Farish Street Historic District, Medgar Evers Neighborhood Historic District, and Morris Historic District. Figure: 4.17 shows the location of historic districts in the city of Jackson.

Source: www.jacksonms.gov Figure:4.17 Historic districts in the City of Jackson

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The state government is providing millions of dollars funds to the preservation projects in term of grants (City of Jackson) in order to preserve these sites as a living part of the community. Social and Infrastructural facilities of the region. Social and infrastructural facilities are the underlying framework of any community. The very existence of these two aspects directly affects the economy, health, quality of living, safety of the community. Population and Housing Units. Hinds County is the most populous county in the state of Mississippi with a population of 250800 and 102389 housing units in its area (Census 2000). Figure: 4.18(a) and 4.18(b) shows the thematic GIS layers of the census block population and housing units data collected from MARIS (2000).

Figure: 4:18 (a) Population at block level in Hinds, Rankin and Madison County, MS

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Figure: 4:18(b) Housing Units at block level in Hinds, Rankin and Madison County, MS

Infrastructure facilities. As the state capital is located with in the county, the infrastructural facilities play a major role in the functioning and connectivity of the region to the national/global market. Any disturbance to these key facilities may paralyze the operational capability of region over the state. Hinds County is served majorily by two interstates I-55 and I-20 and highway 80, 49 and 25. These transportation networks largely contribute to the economic, industrial, social and cultural development of the region. Figure: 4.19 shows spatial location of state high ways and interstate corridors collected from MARIS.

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Figure: 4:19 Major transportation routes through Hinds, Rankin and Madison County, MS

Key Facilities. The effective functioning of any community is taken care by the operational capabilities of the key facilities. Various key facilities such as schools, hospitals, potable water facility, waste water facility, hazardous waste plants and transportation facilities such as airport, bus facility, railway facility maintain the health and welfare of the communities in the Hinds County. Figure: 4.20 shows the spatial distribution of key facilities (collected from HAZUS-MH (2006)) mapped in Arc GIS.

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Figure: 4:20 Key facilities in Hinds, Rankin and Madison County, MS

In an event of flooding, the spatial location of these key facilities should be planned to be stay operable, not just safe. Vulnerability assessment of the number of key facilities not only present the risk of functional failure of the communities against flooding but also expose the fact of allocating necessary funds to retain the operational viability of these critical facilities in an event of a disaster. Land Use. Information obtained from assessing the amount of land use categories under flood inundation helps in employing sustainable approach in future developmental activities. The land use data is prepared (Figure: 4.21) for the downstream (Hinds and Rankin County) of Ross Barnett Reservoir in order to analyze the risk of the increase in the area of each land use category under inundation for each simulated scenario.

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Figure: 4.21 Land use data for the study region

Current Planning and Developmental activities. The department of Planning and Development has been actively working on the expansion of the economic functionalities of the region by encouraging various developmental and preservation projects in the City of Jackson, especially in the downtown region. With businesses expanding, cultural amenities improving and number of special events growing, the economic functionality of the region is flourishing. In order to achieve a sustainable growth, the local government is focusing on the development of residential amenities in the downtown region. The local government is investing millions of dollar funds into these projects. The list of projects (investment exceeding 1,000,000$) undertaken by the Downtown Jackson Partners is presented in the table 4.7.

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Table 4.7 Projects in progress in Downtown Jackson

Name Festival Park Old Capitol Green Mississippi History Museum Ceva Green Location Jefferson near Silas Brown Commerce between Pearl and South Streets North St. at Yazoo Court between Commerce and State St. Farish at Griffith Description Park Mixed-Use, 14-Blocks, Residential, Retail, Hotel, Office Museum, 112,000 sf Cost Unavailable Estimated $1,100,000,000 Estimated $44,000,000 Estimated $40,000,000 Estimated $12,000,000 Estimated $6,000,000 Estimated $4,000,000 Unavailable Estimated $200,000,000 Estimated $35,000,000 Estimated $3,000,000 Estimated $127,000,000 Estimated $14,200,000 Estimated $65,000,000 Estimated $89,000,000 Estimated $48,500,000 $42,700,000 Status Planning Planning

Planning

Farish Street Entertainment District Town Creek Apartments at Farish Library Lofts Jackson Place Residential Capital Center

Mixed-Use, 42 Condos and Restaurant/Entertainment Restaurant, Retail, Entertainment, 2-Blocks Residential, 72Apartments Mixed-Use, Residential, Office Residential, Retail Convention Hotel, Residential, Retail, Office Mixed-Use, High-Rise Office, 6-Story Renovation Courthouse, 350,000 sf Historic Restoration Convention Center

Planning

Planning

Hamilton/Griffith @ Farish 301 N. State Street Lamar at Capitol Street Lamar, Pearl, Mill & Pascagoula 127 South Roach Street 200 North Congress Congress at Court 100 South State Street Adjacent to Mississippi TelCom Center 235 West Capitol Street Lamar at Capitol Street 450 High Street

Planning

Planning Planning Planning

Standard Life Building 200 North Congress US Federal Courthouse Old Capitol Capital City Convention Center King Edward Hotel Pinnacle at Jackson Place Mississippi Supreme Court Walter Sillers Building Mississippi Museum of Art Cellular South Technical Operations

Planning Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction Under Construction Complete 2008 Complete 2008 Complete 2007 Complete 2007

Mixed-Use, Hotel and Residential with Commercial High-Rise Office, 194,000 sf Courthouse, 159,000 sf

550 High Street

380 South Lamar Street State at Tombigbee

Office, 250,000 sf, 20story Renovation, New Parking Garage Museum, 54,000 sf

$28,000,000

$14,000,000

Technology Center

$11,000,000

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Center Mill Street Viaduct & Market Tombigbee Lofts The Plaza Building JPD Headquarter Marriott Public Employees Retirement Sys. City Centre

Capitol at Mill

555 Tombigbee Street 120 North Congress 327 East Pascagoula Street 200 East Amite Street 429 Mississippi Street

Restoration of Rail Overpass and Open-Air Market Residential/Office, 12Apartments Mixed-Use, 95,000 sf, Restaurant, Office, Residential Police Department Renovation Hotel, 21-Story, 303 Room Remodel Office, 77,020 sf, Parking Garage

$4,900,000

Complete 2007 Complete 2007 Complete 2006 Complete 2006 Complete 2005 Complete 2005

$1,500,000 $6,500,000

$11,000,000 $12,000,000 $12,600,000

200 South Lamar

Mississippi TelCom Center Electric 308

105 Pascagoula Street 308 East Pearl Street 151 East Griffith Street

Office, 266,000 sf Renovation, 517 Space Garage Conference Center, 75,000 sf Mixed-Use, 115,000 sf, Restaurant, Office, Residential School, Renovation to Admin Building, 18,000 sf Classroom Addition, 10,000 sf Student Center City Hall Restoration Multi-Modal Transportation Center, School, 4-Story Renovation Library

$12,000,000

Complete 2005 Complete 2005 Complete 2005 Complete 2005

$17,500,000

$16,000,000

Mississippi College School of Law City Hall Union Station MSU College of Architecture MS Dept. of Archives & History ET Woolfolk State Office Building

$6,000,000

219 South President St. 300 West Capitol Street 509 East Capitol Street 200 North Street

$1,800,000 $11,700,000 $2,500,000

Complete 2004 Complete 2003 Complete 2003 Complete 2003 Complete 2001

$30,500,000

501 North West Street

Mississippi 401 North West Dept. of Street Transportation Source: Downtown Jackson Partners

Office, 485,000 sf Renovation, 152,000 sf Addition, 334 Space Garage Office, 10-Story, 242,000 sf, Parking Garage

$10,000,000

Unavailable

Complete 1996

As the region has experienced worst flooding event in 1979 which paralyzed the functioning of the capital city, there is a need to check the current planning and developmental programs (which involve millions of dollars investment) against any
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flooding events that may occur in the region. Most of the million dollar investment projects are situated in the downtown and Lake Land Drive region, which are existing in the downstream of Ross Barnett Reservoir. Failure of this high hazard dam under various climate change effects may not only lead to huge property losses but also can cause disturbances in the functioning of the state capital resulting in a wide social, cultural and economical repercussions all over the state. Dissemination of the integrated maps The study, by using Arc IMS, developed a web-based flood support system that visualizes the impact of Ross Barnett Reservoir failure on the downstream counties. The process involves integrating Arc IMS author, Arc IMS administrator and Arc IMS designer. 1. Creating a Map configuration file: The data files that are required to be displayed on the web-based tool are added to a Map Configuration file by using Arc IMS author. The thematic layer files, the inundation maps of the dam break scenario under average, PMP, PMP+50% and PMP+100% rainfall events are added to the Map configuration file. The layer properties are set from the context menu the configuration file is saved as an AXL file. 2. Starting a Map Service: A map service is required to be created in order to make the map configuration file to be viewable on web. Using Arc IMS administrator, the Map Service is initiated by connecting the map configuration file to the virtual server (ImageServer1) 3. Designing the web-based tool: Using the Arc IMS designer, the Java Viewer web based tool is created for the Map service and the map configuration file.

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The tool bar functionalities and other display elements are chosen in this interface. 4. After completing the Designer process, the web-based tool, which loads and displays the spatial data files mentioned in Map configuration file, is available for viewing (Figure:22).

Figure: 4.22 Arc IMS web-based tool Chapter Summary Chapter four describes in detail the actual procedure involved in simulating dam-break flood. Determination of the rainfall events for which the simulations are performed are described. For the determined rainfall events, the steps undertaken to calculate the inflow at the Ross Barnett Reservoir using HEC HMS is discussed in detail and simulation of the dam-break flood using HEC RAS is explained. Further, the chapter gives an overview of the current planning and developmental activities undertaken by the department of Planning and Development. The cultural
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connections of the region, social and infrastructural aspects are presented along with the current developmental programs that are planned in the region. The preparation of the thematic layers for the study region and the process of preparing web-based information tool using Arc IMS are described.

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CHAPTER 5 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Introduction The purpose of the study was to explore the impact of climate changes on the inundation risk levels of the downstream region (Hinds County as focus) in a dam break scenario (Ross Barnett Reservoir failure). As understood from the literature review, employment of the information generated from this study in the planning process helps in exposing the long term threats posed by flood hazards and facilitates the present planning activities to be designed in a futuristic nature and work towards retaining the functionalities of social, economical and environmental resources viable in the face of hazard. The current research involves development of a web-based information tool (flood planning support system) to disseminate the information which assists the urban planning authorities in identifying the possible least and possible worst case inundation risk levels that their region could experience in the face of Ross Barnett failure under climate change effects. The rainfall events have been identified and the corresponding inflows into the Ross Barnett Reservoir have been calculated using HEC HMS model. The inundation scenarios for the rainfall events have been generated by HEC RAS using dam break unsteady flow simulations. Even though results for 16 scenarios (Table: 5.1) have been generated, 4 scenarios (Scenario_1, scenario6, scenario 11 and
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scenario 16) which represent the trend from the possible least case scenario to the possible worst case scenario are discussed in detail in this chapter. The results of the other scenarios are provided in the appendix. Table: 5.1 Scenarios to be considered for the discussion.
Scenario Scenario-1 Scenario-6 Scenario-11 Scenario-16 Description Average rainfall event PMP event PMP+50% rainfall event PMP+100% rainfall event

From the literature review, it is understood that hazard identification and vulnerability assessment are the key factors in gearing up the developmental activities in the flood plains. Burby (1998) suggests that in order to achieve safe and sustainable communities, urban planners should view and understand the physical characteristics of hazard as an important indicator for identifying vulnerable areas. The interaction of the hazard with an urban area can have a potential impact on its cultural, historical, social, infrastructural and economical functionalities. Analyzing the vulnerability of these functionalities in the face of a flood event will not only present an insight about the disturbances that might occur in these inter related functionalities but also expose the risk factor upon which the current developmental activities are being planned. The analysis from this vulnerability assessment, as said by Geertman (2003), can assist in advancing the inclusive nature of climate change factors in the planning process, there by strengthening the focus of sustainable approach in the future developmental activities in the downstream of Ross Barnett Reservoir.

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In this regard, identification of the vulnerable blocks at various magnitudes of hazard plays a key role in formulating developmental strategies. The spatial location of the blocks or tracts having flood threat can be identified by calculating the vulnerability index through integrating the spatial risk of the identified hazard and the vulnerability of the region towards its magnitude. As the downstream region (Hinds County) is taking part in the FEMA NFIP program, all the developmental activities are bound to a 100-year base flood magnitude. With the presence of a high hazard dam in the upstream and with climate changes effects in place, the blocks which are considered out of risk in a 100-year flood may fall under vulnerable zone. Vulnerable blocks identified from integrated risk factor can assist the planning agencies to make informed choices in the formulating developmental strategies and help them in achieving a sustainable development. In this connection, the results are discussed in terms of hazard identification and vulnerability assessment which facilitates in answering the research questions posed in chapter 1. The extent and magnitude of inundation for each scenario is discussed under hazard identification section. Vulnerability assessment is analyzed by considering the impact of flooding events on the cultural-historical, socialinfrastructural (population, housing units, transportation, key facilities, landuse) and current developmental programs of the downstream region. The study calculates the integrated risk factor and presents the spatial location of high/medium/low vulnerable blocks in Hinds County for each scenario.

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Hazard identification Hazard identification involves defining the spatial extent and magnitude of a hazard that may be possible for a specific geographical area. For the above mentioned four scenarios (that represent dam break flood hazard under various rainfall events), the hazard is identified in terms of area of acres inundated, percentage increase in the inundated acres and the magnitude of flood event for each scenario in terms of flood water depth and percentage increase in the depth levels from average rainfall event to PMP+100% event. Spatial extent Figure: 5.1 (a-d) depicts the extent of inundation occurred due to Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under four rainfall events (Average, PMP, PMP+50% and PMP+100% rainfall events). In all the four scenarios, the extent of inundation due to dam break Ross Barnett Reservoir is presented in Figure: 5.2.

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Figure: 5.1 (a) Spatial extent of inundation due to Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under Average Rainfall Event

Figure: 5.1 (b) Spatial extent of inundation due to Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under PMP Event

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Figure: 5.1 (c) Spatial extent of inundation due to Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under PMP+50% event

Figure: 5.1 (d) Spatial extent of inundation due to Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under PMP+100% event

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Figure: 5.2 (a) Change in the spatial extent under Average Rainfall event (Zoomed view)

Figure: 5.2 (b) Change in the spatial extent under PMP+100% event (Zoomed view)

There is a substantial amount increase in the total area of inundation in the downstream of Ross Barnett Reservoir with 7581 acres of more land under flood waters from average rainfall event to PMP+100% rainfall event. Table: 5.2 presents the extent of acres of land under inundation for each scenario. It can be observed that, a drastic increase in the inundated land occurred between average rainfall event and
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PMP event (a difference of 3275 acres of land). In fact the amount of area inundated in PMP event almost equals the spatial extent of flood waters of 1979 flood (50955 acres). As the 1979 flood is considered as a 200 year flood, Ross Barnett Reservoir failure in a PMP event can cause a flood equivalent to a 200-year flood level and PMP+50% and PMP+100% exceeding a 200-year level flood magnitude. Table: 5.2 Amount of Area inundated in the downstream of Ross Barnett Reservoir
Scenario Average rainfall event PMP event PMP+50% event PMP+100% event Total Inundated area in the downstream region (acres) 47056 50331.03 51906.06 54637.46

Similarly, the area of spatial extent of inundation in just the Hinds County shows a gradual increase with increase in the intensity of rainfall events (Average to PMP+100%) in a Ross Barnett Reservoir failure. Table: 5.3 presents the area of land under inundation with percentage calculated from the total area of Hinds County.
Table: 5.3 Area under inundation in the Hinds County in a Ross Barnett Reservoir failure Scenario Area inundated in % of total area of Hinds County Hinds County (561401.7941) Average rainfall event 19309 3.439426 PMP event 20502 3.65193 PMP+50% event 21038 3.747405 PMP+100% event 22081 3.93319

Similar results to the total inundation area have been observed in the Hinds County too. In 1979-flood, an area of 20606 acres of land has been inundated in the Hinds County. Looking at the amount of inundation area under PMP event, which is near to the 1979-flood area, it can be said that the Ross Barnett Reservoir failure in a PMP event will inundate an area at a 200-year flood level in the Hinds County.
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An increase in the extent of area under inundation is observed from the average rainfall event and PMP event whose recurrence is quite possible as they had been experienced by the study region in the past. The results reveal that these two scenarios will pose a 200-year magnitude flood; where as the enforcement of the developmental activities in the downstream counties are bound to a 100-year flood magnitude. Some blocks which are at no-risk zones in a 100-year flood magnitude might fall in high/medium/low vulnerable zones in a Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under average and PMP rainfall events, which shows the necessity to extend the boundaries of the spatial extent under risk in regulating any developmental activities. Depth grids While the spatial extent of the dam break flood scenarios represent the landwater boundary showing the extent of a flood plain, the depth grid portrays the variation of the depths in the flood waters. Figure: 5.3 (a-d) illustrates the depth grid for each scenario plotted on the downstream region of Ross Barnett Reservoir. Figure: 5.4 (a-b) presents a zoomed view of the region near Jackson International Airport.

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Figure: 5.3 (a) Depth grid of inundation due to Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under Average rainfall event

Figure: 5.3 (b) Depth grid of inundation due to Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under PMP event

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Figure: 5.3 (c) Depth grid of inundation due to Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under PMP+50%

Figure: 5.3 (d) Depth grid of inundation due to Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under PMP+100%

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Figure: 5.4 (a) Change in the depth grid-Average rainfall event (Zoomed view)

Figure: 5.4(b) Change in the depth grid- PMP+100% (Zoomed view)

Each scenario represents a range of flood depths and from Table: 5.4, it is clear that the maximum depth of the flood waters increase from average rainfall event to PMP+100% event with the increase in their intensities.

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Table: 5.4 Maximum depth for each scenario

Scenario Average rainfall event PMP event PMP+50% event PMP+100% event Maximum Depth(Ft) 43.237335 45.817902 46.144653 48.218475

Simulation of the 1979 flood event yielded a maximum depth of 45.2 ft which can be compared with PMP event. Ross Barnett Reservoir failure at a PMP event could lead to similar flooding depths as of 1979 flood event with PMP+50% event and PMP+100% event resulting in depths beyond that 200-year flood event. Based on the water depths, FEMA (1998), for the purpose of preparing Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRM) for a specific region, has divided the flood plain area into various zones (Table 5.5). Table: 5.5 Description of the zones in the floodplains based on water depth
Zone Zone B Zone A Zone V Zone C Description Shallow flooding area with depth less than a foot (0-1 ft) The base floodplain with water depths above foot level (usually 1-3 feet) Coastal area flood hazards (tidal force) Area of Minimal hazard

Following the FEMA zone designations, the depth grid of each scenario is classified under 3 categories as 0-1 ft, 1-3 ft and >3 ft depths. The area falling under these categories for each scenario is calculated and presented in the Table: 5.6.

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Table: 5.6 Depth grids of the scenarios classified based on water depths
Scenario Area under 01Ft depth inundation Area under 13Ft depth inundation Area under >3ft depth inundation Total inundated area % change (0-1ft) from Average rainfall event % change (1-3 ft) from Average rainfall event % change >3ft from Average rainfall event

Average rainfall event PMP event PMP+50% event PMP+100% event

1659.475 1524.53 1476.471 1098.119

4443.557 3222.054 3075.558 3009.603

40952.97 45584.45 47354.03 50529.74

47056 50331 51906 54637 -8.85156 -12.3947 -51.1197 -37.9107 -44.4797 -47.646 10.16022 13.51746 18.95274

In all the scenarios, most of the inundated area is under >3 ft water depth category. The area under the dam break induced flood with depth ranging between 01ft and 1-3 ft is actually declining with the increase in the rainfall intensities. It can noticed from the Table: 5.6 that the reduction of the area under first two categories, from average rainfall event to PMP+100% event, is resulting in the increase in the area under >3ft category flood water depths. In other words, Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under increased rainfall intensities not only leads to increase in the spatial extent but also in terms of increase in the flood water depths. The change in the risk levels of dam-break inundation with the increase in the rainfall intensities are measured by estimating the percentage change from average rainfall event scenario in the number of acres submerged under each depth category (Table: 5.6). Figure: 5.5 depict the percentage change in the risk levels when compared with average rainfall event scenario. The percentage change in the acres under 0-1ft and 1-3 ft depth inundation shows a trend of declination (with negative percentage change values as low as -51%) while >3 ft depth inundated area shows an inclination (with positive change in the percentage values) from average rainfall

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event. For example, the increase in the risk level of area getting inundated with >3ft depth waters from average rainfall event to PMP+100% event is estimated to be increased by 18.9%. It can be inferred that the reduction of the area under shallow flood waters and increase of the area under deeper flood waters express an alarming impact of Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under of higher intensity rainfall events in terms of water depths.
% change in the risk from average rainfall ev
30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 Scenarios` 0-1ft 1-3ft >3ft PMP event PMP+50% event PMP+100% event

Figure: 5.5 Percentage change in the risk levels compared with Average rainfall Scenario

The results obtained for Hinds County yielded a trend similar to the over all inundation, with an area under 0-1 ft and 1-3 ft depth flood waters decreasing from average rainfall event to PMP+100% event and area under >3ft depth category increasing. Table: 5.7 shows the scenarios classified under depth categories for Hinds County.
Table: 5.7 Depth grids of the scenarios classified based on water depths in Hinds County Scenario Area Area under Area under Total % change under 01-3Ft depth >3ft depth inundated (0-1ft) 1Ft depth inundation inundation area from inundation Average rainfall event Average 599.8325 1558.548 17150.62 19309 rainfall event PMP event 520.8072 1170.772 18810.42 20502 -15.1736 PMP+50% 504.5236 1100.731 19432.745 21038 -18.8909 event PMP+100% 484.288 1024.828 20571.88 22081 -23.8586 event

% change (1-3 ft) from Average rainfall event

% change >3ft from Average rainfall event

-33.1214 -41.5921 -52.079

8.823833 11.74371 16.63076

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The change in the risk levels with increased rainfall intensities (estimated from the percentage change in the area from average rainfall event) for the Hinds County shows a gradual trend (not as sharp as the change in the risk levels of total inundation in the downstream) with a decrease in percentage change in the area under 0-1ft and 1-3 ft depth waters and increase in the percentage change in the area submerged under >3ft depth (Figure: 5.6).
30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60
Scenarios

% change in the risk from average rainfall ev

0-1ft

1-3ft

>3ft

PMP event PMP+50% event PMP+100% event

Figure: 5.6 Percentage change in the risk levels compared with Average rainfall event scenario for Hinds County

From another dimension, the study examined the changes in the water depths by keeping the average rainfall event scenario as the base inundation area (as it is the highly possible least area that could get inundated in a Ross Barnett Reservoir failure). The inundation maps obtained for PMP, PMP+50% and PMP+100% event are clipped to average rainfall event scenario and the changes in the depths are examined. The total inundated area remains same, except the depths for each scenario changes.

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Table: 5.8 Change in the depth grids with scenario-1 as the base inundation area
Scenario Area under 01Ft depth inundation 422 Area under 1-3Ft depth inundation 461 Area under >3ft depth inundation 46173 Total inundated area 47056 % of Total inundation (0-1ft) 0.896804 % of Total inundation (1-3ft) 0.979684 % of Total inundation >3ft 98.12351

Average rainfall event PMP event PMP+50% event PMP+100% event

14.01045 1.42041 0.298723

1507.361 189.2512 7.351147

45534.63 46865.33 47048.35

47056 47056 47056

0.029774 0.003019 0.000635

3.203333 0.402183 0.015622

96.76689 99.5948 99.98374

Table: 5.8 shows the acres of inundated land under each depth category for each scenario clipped to average rainfall event inundation area. A drastic change can be observed from average rainfall to PMP event with an sharp decrease in the inundated area under 0-1ft and 1-3 ft depth and an increase in the area under >3ft depth. The percentage increase in the risk factor in terms of depths can be understood from the Table: 5.8, that the of area under 0-1 ft and 1-3ft depth (of the total area) is decreasing by almost less by 421 acres) and the percentage of area under >3ft is increasing by almost 2% (more by 875 acres) of the total inundated area from average rainfall event to PMP+100% event (Figure: 5.7).
Average Rainfall Event 1% 1%
PMP+100% event 0% 0%

0-1ft 1-3ft >3ft

0-1ft 1-3ft >3ft

98%

100%

a) Average rainfall event b) PMP+100% event Figure: 5.7 Percentage of inundated area under depth categories

Out of all the scenarios, the impact of Ross Barnett Reservoir failure on the downstream region takes a noticeable change from average rainfall event to the PMP

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event in terms of flood water depths. The impact of climate changes is evident from the increasing depths for a specific location. Some blocks which are in a 0-1 ft shallow waters in a 100-year flood magnitude might fall into the zone of >3ft flood depth. As discussed earlier, with a recurrence possibility of average rainfall and PMP event, the developmental strategies of the counties which are under the effect of Ross Barnett Reservoir failure should reflect the incorporation of this exposure in their regulations. Vulnerability assessment To promote sustainability in the developmental activities, the inter-related functionalities should be planned to remain viable in the face of a hazard. Assessing the vulnerability helps in identifying the risk factor (which paralyzes the inter relations or inter dependence of these functionalities) and exposing the disturbance that might be possible in achieving an integration between economical, social/infrastructural and environmental spheres of a community. Information generated from such assessments assists the planning authorities in regulating developmental activities in the flood plains and thus helps in avoiding hazards transforming into disasters. According to UNEP report (2001), information from vulnerability assessment helps in building flood-resistant communities by reducing or enhancing the coping capacity of the community with the flood hazard by sensibly planning developmental activities. The study analyzes the vulnerability of the downstream region of Ross Barnett Reservoir in the face of its failure under various rainfall events under three factors: Cultural and historical, social and Infrastructural and impact on current developmental programs.

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Impact on Cultural and historical values The Mississippi state capital is considered as a cultural hub with around 700 events taking place every year in its vicinity. Majority of these events are hosted in the downtown region of the City of Jackson at Fairgrounds and Coliseum. People all across the state and Nation are culturally connected to the souths biggest fair Mississippi state fair, Rodeos, trade mart, live stock shows and many more events. Apart from these events, numerous museums that portray the historical and cultural richness of the region: Old capitol museum, Oaks House museum, Municipal art gallery etc at downtown Jackson and Natural science museum, Agricultural museum at Lake Land drive, can be said as situated in the flood risk zone in the downstream region of Ross Barnett Reservoir. Outbreak of this reservoir can disturb the cultural functioning of the region either directly by inundating or indirectly by disrupting the transportation networks leading to the facility. Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under the possible least scenario, that is, under the average rainfall event projects a flood risk situation in the downtown region (Figure: 5.8).

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Figure: 5.8 Flood waters at Downtown Jackson in Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under average rainfall event

Inundation of the Mississippi coliseum and fairgrounds (from I-55 till Jefferson Street under the flood waters) can be seen from the above figure. Hindrances to these events can impact the economic capability of the businesses such as hotels, restaurants, cab services which depend on the cultural events for their survival. Even though the exact location of the down town museums, Old Capitol Museum on South State street, Oaks House Museum on N Jefferson Street and Municipal Art Gallery on N State Street are out of flood waters, inundation of the main transportation route leading to these museums, the I-55, can hamper people reaching to these facilities under a flood threat.

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While the flood waters from Ross Barnett Reservoir failure produce an indirect affect on the downtown museums, museums at the Lake land drive: Natural science museum and the Agricultural museum are directly affected by this event (Figure: 5.9).

Figure: 5.9 Ross Barnett Reservoir Flood waters at the intersection of Lake Land drive and I-55 under an average rainfall event

The effort of the department of planning and development to enhance tourism, preserve historic buildings and stabilize neighborhoods has resulted in identifying five historic districts in the City of Jackson, majority of them situated in the downtown region. Millions of dollars are funded to these projects by the local, state and National trust funds in order to support them to retain and stabilize. From Figure:

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5.10, it can be observed that Ross Barnett Reservoir failure in an average rainfall event puts the Belhaven, Medgar Evers and Farish Street historic district at flood risk.

Figure: 5.10 Inundation of the historic districts at Downtown Jackson due to Ross Barnett Reservoir failure in average rainfall event

Figure: 5.11 Inundation of the historic districts at Downtown Jackson due to Ross Barnett Reservoir failure in PMP event

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The impact of climate changes can be noticed from Figure: 5.11, as the Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under the possible worst scenario (PMP+100% rainfall event) amplifies the number of communities getting inundated due to the increase in the spatial extent of inundation in these historic neighbor hoods. Along with the cultural/historical attachments of the people, as lots of investments are being made in these communities, the possible threat under which these areas are situated must be identified and there by should be reflected so that the focus of the programs are steered to withstand such threats. Impact on Social and Infrastructural facilities The impact of flooding events are directly felt when the social and infrastructure facilities are affected. Along with the functioning of the infrastructural facilities, it is the accessibility to these facilities in the face of a hazard that makes the communities viable. Analyzing the vulnerability of the social and infrastructural facilities in the downstream of Ross Barnett Reservoir in the scenario of its failure under various rainfall events exposes the hidden risk factor upon which the communities are being planned. Population and Housing Units. Analyzing population and housing units is a vital factor in assessing the vulnerability of a region towards a flood event. According to Zheng (2008), determining the presence of population and housing units in the flooding region, referred as social vulnerability, serves as key factor in assessing the vulnerability. To obtain the potential population at risk, the census block level data is applied. Figure: 5:12 (a-d) spatially illustrates the population at risk in Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under the four scenarios.

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Figure: 5.12 (a) Spatial distribution of population at risk under average rainfall event.

Figure: 5.12 (b) Spatial distribution of population at risk under PMP event.

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Figure: 5.12 Spatial distribution of population at risk under PMP+50% event

Figure: 5.12 (d) Spatial distribution of population at risk under PMP+100% event

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Table: 5:9 presents the population numbers affected in the whole downstream and in the Hinds County region. In all the scenarios more than 60% of the total population who are at risk are located in Hinds County, which means that the impact of Ross Barnett Reservoir failure is majorily borne by the County. The percentage change in the total population at risk increases by almost 4% from average rainfall event to PMP+100% event presenting the increase in risk levels with the changes in the rainfall events. Table: 5.9 Number of population at risk in the downstream and Hinds County region
Scenario Total Population affected in the downstream 31078 34100 36616 41984 Hinds County population affected 20015 21660 23835 27852 % of total population at Hinds County (250800) 7.980463 8.636364 9.503589 11.10526

Average rainfall event PMP event PMP+50% event PMP+100% event

Similarly the impact of the dam break flood hazard on the number of housing units inundated is presented in Figure: 5:13 (a-d). The block level data is mapped on the inundation map for each scenario.

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Figure: 5.13(a) Spatial distribution of housing units at risk under Average rainfall event

Figure: 5.13(b) Spatial distribution of housing units at risk under PMP event

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Figure: 5.13 Spatial distribution of housing units at risk under PMP+50% event

Figure: 5.13(d) Spatial distribution of housing units at risk under PMP+100% event

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With the increase in the intensity of rainfall events, the number of housing units getting affected under Ross Barnett Reservoir failure also increases. The inundated housing units in the whole downstream region and Hinds County show a similar trend (Table: 5:10). Out of the total affected units, more than 60% are located in Hinds County blocks which mean that the impact is more on Hinds County region. Table:5.10 Number of housing units at risk in the downstream and Hinds County region
Scenario Total inundated in downstream (Housing Units) 14717 16279 17400 19710 Total inundated in Hinds County 9467 10384 11364 13112 % of total housing units at in Hinds County (102389) 9.24611 10.14171 11.09885 12.80606

Average rainfall event PMP event PMP+50% event PMP+100% event

The percentage increase in the number of housing units under flood waters increase by almost 4% from average rainfall event to PMP+100% event putting 3645 more units at risk. With the state capital, the City of Jackson, being in the Hinds County province, the impact of this flood event on the social vulnerability can be cumulative. Transportation. Flooding can cause extensive damage to a region by disrupting the transportation systems. The interruption of the movement of people and goods due to the flooding risk can paralyze the regions social and economic functionality. The inundation of the major transportation corridors- the interstates and the state highways that serve the region can impact from a local to regional level.

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Figure: 5.14 (a) Inundated roads under Average rainfall event

Figure: 5.14 (b) Inundated roads under PMP event

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Figure: 5.14 Inundated roads under PMP+50% event

Figure: 5.14 (d) Inundated roads under PMP+100% event

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Figure: 5:14 (a-d) depicts the spatial location of the length of inundation on the major highways and interstates running through the downstream region of Ross Barnett Reservoir under increased rainfall intensities from average rainfall event to PMP+100% event. It can observed from Table: 5:11 that 3 state highways and 2 interstate corridors are being affected in all the scenarios. With the increase in the intensity of the rainfall event, an increase in the length of road getting inundated is noticed. Highway 49 and I-55 can be said as the most affected transportation corridors. The impact of the change in the intensity of the rainfall event is observed mostly on Highway 25 and I-20 as the number of miles getting submerged under flood waters increase drastically from average rainfall event to PMP+100% event.
Table: 5:11 Length of roads getting inundated in Ross Barnett Reservoir failure Scenarios Hwy-49 I-55 I-20 Hwy-80 (miles) (miles) (mile (miles) s) Average rainfall 5 2 1 2 event PMP event 5 2 1 2 PMP+50% event 6 2 2 2 PMP+100% event 6 3 3 2

Hwy-25 (miles) 1 2 3 4

Risk of Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under increased intensity rainfall events not only occurs in terms of length of the road getting inundated but also varies with the changes in the depth of the flood waters on the road. As the HEC RAS results provide depth grids at all the locations, the study presents the changes in the risk level in terms of length and depth by clipping the inundated road network to the depth grid files which are categorized as 0-1 ft, 1-3 ft and >3ft water depths.

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Figure 5.15 (a) Change in the risk levels in terms of length and Depth at Lake Land Drive Average rainfall event

Figure 5.15 (b) Change in the risk levels in terms of length and Depth at Lake Land Drive PMP event

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Figure 5.15 (c) Change in the risk levels in terms of length and Depth at Lake Land Drive PMP+50% event

Figure 5.15(d) Change in the risk levels in terms of length and Depth at Lake Land Drive PMP+100% event

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Figure: 5:15 (a-d) illustrates the change in the risk levels on a part of the Lake Land drive at I-55 intersection, one of the busiest regions in the city of Jackson. A gradual transformation of 0-1 ft water depth (green color) to 1-3 ft (yellow color) and to >3ft (red color) can be observed from average rainfall event to PMP+100% event. As the health care facilities namely, St.Dominic Jackson Memorial hospital, Mississippi medical center and cultural facilities such as Agricultural museum, Natural science museum are located here, inundation due to Ross Barnett Reservoir failure (in all the four rainfall scenarios) may obstruct the accessibility to these facilities. Table: 5.12 Length of roads getting inundated in Ross Barnett Reservoir failure in Hinds County
Scenarios Hwy49 (miles) 0 0 0 0 I-55 (miles) 1 1 1 2 I-20 (miles) 0 0 0 0 Hwy-80 (miles) 0 0 0 0 Hwy-25 (miles) 1 1 1 1

Average rainfall event PMP event PMP+50% event PMP+100% event

Parts of Highway 25 and I-55 in the Hinds County region are affected in all the scenarios (Table: 5:12). The change in the rainfall intensities show a major impact on I-55 with 50% of the total inundation happening in the county.

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Figure 5.16 (a) Spatial representation of inundation on I-55 near down town region Average rainfall event

Figure 5.16 (b) Spatial representation of inundation on I-55 near down town region PMP event

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Figure 5.16 (c) Spatial representation of inundation on I-55 near down town region PMP+50% event

Figure 5.16 (d) Spatial representation of inundation on I-55 near down town region PMP+100% event

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Inferring from the Figure: 5:16 (a-d), it can be said that the inundation on I-55 can have a serious impact on the economic functionality of the region as it is the major transportation corridor running through the downtown region in Hinds County from where the commercial and administrative functionalities are accomplished. Key facilities. A slight chance of flooding may pose a great threat to the operational efficiency of the key facilities located in the flood plains. Figure: 5.17(ad) illustrates the spatial distribution of the key facilities falling under inundation zone in each scenario. The number of inundated key facilities increases with the increase in the intensity of the rainfall event. The vulnerability of the region can even increase with some key facilities getting affected indirectly by the closures of transportation routes (I-55, I-20, Highway 80 and 25 and local roads) leading to these facilities.

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Figure: 5.17 (a) Spatial locations of key facilities under Average Rainfall event

Figure: 5.17 (b) Spatial locations of key facilities under PMP

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Figure: 5.17 (c) Spatial locations of key facilities under PMP+50%

Figure: 5.17 (d) Spatial locations of key facilities under PMP+100%

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From Table: 5.9, it can be observed that, the total number of key facilities that are affected by the Ross Barnett Reservoir failure increases by 14 from average rainfall event to PMP+100% event. The only potable water facility to the downstream region of Ross Barnett Reservoir will be under flood waters putting the Hinds County population at risk with long reaching health impacts. The presence of 10 hazardous material plants in the same inundation zone aggravates the risk, as the outbreak/chemical accidents at these plants in an flood event can pollute the natural resources (such as drinking water, wetlands etc) leaving the population and live stock in contaminated environments. It can be observed from Table: 5.13 that, this risk shows an increase (14 plants under inundation) from average rainfall event to PMP+100% event under Ross Barnett Reservoir failure. Table: 5.13 Number of various key facilities under inundation zone.
Scenario Average rainfall event 1 6 3 1 1 4 10 1 27 PMP event 1 8 4 1 1 4 12 2 33 PMP+50% event 1 9 4 1 1 4 13 2 35 PMP+100% event 2 13 4 1 1 4 14 2 41

Hospitals Schools Wastewater Facility Potable Water Facility Bus Facility Communication Facilities Hazardous Material Plants Railway Facilities Total

In all the four scenarios, the major transportation facilities of the state capitalCity of Jackson-Transit services (on S president Street) and Jackson Amtrak station on W Capitol Street fall under the inundation zone. Shutting down of these facilities can cause huge inconvenience to the people and to the transportation of goods which may result in paralyzing the economic functionalities of the state capital.
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Figure: 5.18 (a) Spatial representation of flood waters near Jackson International airport under Average rainfall event

Figure: 5.18 (b) spatial representations of flood waters near Jackson International airport under PMP event

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Figure: 5.18 Spatial representation of flood waters near Jackson International airport under PMP+50% event

Figure: 5.18 (d) Spatial representation of flood waters near Jackson International airport under PMP+100% event

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Although the flood waters do not touch the exact spatial location of the major air facility (Jackson international airport) existing in the downstream region, it can be observed from Figure: 5.18 (a-d) that how the flood waters surround the airport in a Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under intensified rainfall events. With the only one airport of the region (city of Jackson) at flood risk, the global commerce of the state capital with the rest of the world can come to a stand still which may have wide consequences in terms of economic expansion of the region. Table: 5.14 Number of Inundated Key facilities in Hinds County.
Scenarios Hospitals Schools Wastewater Facility Bus Facility Communication Facilities Hazardous Material Plants Railway Facilities Total
Average rainfall event PMP event PMP+50% event PMP+100% event

0 5 2 1 1 5

0 6 3 1 1 7 1 19

0 7 3 1 1 8 1 21

1 7 3 1 1 8 1 22

14

The state of inundated key facilities in the Hinds County in a Ross Barnett Reservoir failure is shown in Table: 5:14. With the inundated key facilities being situated in the state capital, the City of Jackson, these facilities can be considered as hyper sensitive units whose operational failure can bring the capitals functionality to a stand still.

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Railw ay Facilities Hazardous Material Plants Communication Facilities Bus Facility Potable Water Facility Wastew ater Facility Schools Hospitals

1 5 1 1 1 4 Hinds Total 2 3 5 6 10

Railw ay Facilities Hazardous Material Plants Communication Facilities Bus Facility Potable Water Facility Wastew ater Facility Schools Hospitals

2 7 12

1 1 1 0 1 2

4 Hinds Total 4 6 8

0 0

1 2 4 6 8 10 12

0 0

1 5 10 15

Number of Key Facilities under Scenario_1 inundation

Number of Key Facilities under Scenario_6 inundation

a) Average Rainfall Event

Railw ay Facilities Hazardous Material Plants Communication Facilities Bus Facility Potable Water Facility Wastew ater Facility Schools Hospitals

b) PMP event
Railw ay Facilities

2 8 13

2 8 14

Hazardous Material Plants Communication Facilities

1 1 1 0 1 3

4 Hinds Total 4 7 9

1 1 1 0 1 3

4 Hinds Total 4 7 13

Bus Facility Potable Water Facility Wastew ater Facility Schools Hospitals

0 0

1 5 10 15

1 0

2 5 10 15

Number of Key Facilities under Scenario_11 inundation

Number of Key Facilities under Scenario_16 inundation

c) PMP+50% event

d) PMP+100% event

Figure: 5.19 Comparison of the inundated key facilities in Hinds County with the total inundated facilities

Figure: 5:19 illustrates the number of inundated key facilities borne by the Hinds County out of the total facilities under flood waters for each scenario. Major portion of affected key facilities are seen in the Hinds County in the event of average, and PMP rainfall events under the Ross Barnett Reservoir failure, which reveals the fact of developing or locating key facilities in a probable flood vulnerable zone. Land use. As land use planning in the flood plains play a significant role in setting the vulnerability of the region, the assessment of the amount of inundated land use categories helps in not only in acknowledging the loss of crucial land use
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categories such as wetlands, vegetation (that function as natural barriers from flood hazards) but also in exposing the most vulnerable land use category which needs to be taken care in the future planning activities. The area of each inundated land use category is measured by overlaying the inundation map of each scenario on the land use map of the study region. Figure: 5.20 (a-d) shows the spatial representation of the inundated land use categories in Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under increased rainfall intensity events.

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Figure: 5.20 (a) Inundated land use categories in the down stream region under Average rainfall event.

Figure: 5.20 (b) Inundated land use categories in the down stream region under PMPevent.

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Figure: 5.20 (c) Inundated land use categories in the down stream region under PMP+50% event.

Figure: 5.20 (d) Inundated land use categories in the down stream region under PMP+100% event.

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Table: 5.15 presents the details of the area calculated in acres under each land use category for all the four scenarios. All the land use categories show a trend of inclination in their inundated area from average rainfall event to PMP+100% event. Table: 5.15 Area of land use categories under inundation (area in acres)
Scenarios Average rainfall event PMP event PMP+50% event PMP+100% event Barren 3563.2 4069.889 4337.408 4799.826 Crops/shrubs 6859.089 7530.657 7814.847 8427.202 Open Land 99.69 121.23 125.11 126.15 Open Water 1786.85 1798.768 1800.991 1824.107 Urbanized land 4594.845 5458.182 5887.59 6567.195 Vegetation 9886.823 10394.68 10595.71 11049.47 Wetlands 20266.08 20957.62 21344.4 21843.51

As the downstream region which gets affected by the Ross Barnett Reservoir failure includes both Hinds and Rankin Counties, the risk of increase in the area of inundated land use category for each scenario is compared with the total area under each category in these two counties. Table: 5.16 presents the risk of increased inundation in terms of percentage change from the total area under each land use category. Table: 5.16 Percentage change in the land use area inundated
Scenarios Barren Crops/shrubs Open Land Urbanized land Vegetation Wetlands

Average rainfall event PMP event PMP+50% event PMP+100% event

3.687791 4.212196 4.48907 4.967657

1.173148 1.288011 1.336617 1.441352

9.774967 11.88704 12.26749 12.36947

7.096729 8.430151 9.093371 10.14302

1.692024 1.778938 1.813343 1.890998

10.71456 11.08018 11.28466 11.54855

From Figure: 5:21, the most vulnerable land use categories to the flood hazard induced by Ross Barnett Reservoir failure are developed open land, wetlands and urbanized land. Even though the average rainfall event shows its impact on these land
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use categories, a sharp increase in the percentage change can be noticed in the developed open land and urbanized land from average rainfall event to PMP event.
14 12
Percentage of area inundated

10 Average Rainfall event 8 6 4 2 0

en ro ps /s hr ub s O pe n L U an rb d an iz ed la nd Ve ge ta tio n W et la nd s Ba rr

PMP event PMP+50% event PMP+100% event

Figure: 5.21 Most vulnerable land use categories

The impact on the Hinds County in terms of area of inundated land use categories are presented in Table: 5:17. Similar to the total inundation trend, an inclination in the area of land use categories is noticed with the increase in the rainfall intensity events from average rainfall event to PMP+100% event.
Table: 5:17 Area of land use categories under inundation in Hinds County (area in acres) Scenarios Barren Crops/shrubs Open Open Urbanized Land Water land Average 1416.137 2774.843 92.24627 840.519 1574.472 rainfall event PMP event 1625.664 3041.222 102.5013 843.3829 1968.748 PMP+50% event PMP+100% event 1734.809 1935.591 3122.276 3357.47 107.6454 118.6855 843.6308 845.1418 2193.251 2580.629

Vegetation 4362.875

Wetlands 8248.212

4550.907 4612.371 4765.168

8369.749 8423.985 8478.781

The increase in the risk levels are estimated by calculating the percentage change in the area of inundation from the total area in Hinds County under each land

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use category. Table: 5:18 shows the percentage increase in the area under increase rainfall intensities. Table: 5.18 Percentage change in the land use area inundated in Hinds County
Scenarios Barren Crops/shrubs Open Land Urbanized land Vegetation Wetlands

Average rainfall event PMP event PMP+50% event PMP+100% event

3.42661 3.933602 4.197697 4.683529

1.237643 1.356454 1.392606 1.497508

13.84142 15.38016 16.15203 17.80859

4.689521 5.863863 6.532538 7.686335

2.191697 2.286155 2.317032 2.39379

19.10876 19.39033 19.51598 19.64293

Even though the most vulnerable land use categories to the dambreak flood hazard remains developed open land, wetlands and urbanized land (like the total inundation trend in the downstream as in Table: 5:14), wetlands stands as the most vulnerable of all the land use categories. The increase in the risk levels are more for the urbanized land use category with an increase of 3% from average rainfall event to PMP+100% event in the Hinds County (Figure: 5:22).
25
% change in the inundated land use are

20 Average rainfall event PMP event 10 PMP+50% event PMP+100% event

15

0
ro ps /s rb an iz ed la nd Ve ge ta tio n W et la nd s Ba rr hr ub s pe n La nd U en

Figure: 5:22 Most vulnerable land use categories in Hinds County

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Impact on current planning and developmental activities The current planning and developmental activities are focused towards promoting economic expansion of the region with a focus of balancing residential, social, cultural and historical aspects and thus move towards a sustainable development. As a part of this, the department of planning and development has planned numerous projects in the downtown region of City of Jackson. While the status of some projects is completed, some are in their way of completion. With an aim to improve the businesses, cultural and residential amenities, millions of dollars are invested in these projects. As understood from the literature review, all these developmental activities are bound to a100-year flood zone. These projects, which are aimed at achieving sustainability and which involves lots of investments, are located in the downstream of the Ross Barnett Reservoir, the high hazard dam. As it is identified from the hazard identification section, that the failure of Ross Barnett Reservoir under PMP event can produce a 200-year magnitude flood (that almost equals 1979 flood), the vulnerability analysis can expose the fact of the risk associated with these developmental activities in such flood event. Figure: 5.20 (a-d) illustrates the inundation extents in all the four scenarios in the downtown region. It can be observed that the major transportation corridor connecting to the downtown region (I-55) is under flood waters in the possible least case scenario (average rainfall event- Figure: 5.23(a)). The inundation is getting worse with the increase in the rainfall events. Numerous streets in this region such as parts of Pascagoula Street, Lamar, Amite, Capitol, Pearl, Jefferson, Roach, Farish, Greymont, Fortification etc are affected in all the scenarios.

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Figure: 5.23 (a) Spatial representation of flood waters near downtown region under Average rainfall event

Figure: 5.23 (b) Spatial representation of flood waters near downtown region under PMP event

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Figure: 5.23 Spatial representation of flood waters near downtown region under PMP+50% event

Figure: 5.23 (d) Spatial representation of flood waters near downtown region under PMP+100% event

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The new Jackson Convention Complex (a $65 million project), which is planned to serve as an economic catalyst for the City of Jackson and the metro area (Jackson Convention Center, 2008) by hosting local, regional and national conventions, trade shows and entertainment events is located on the Pascagoula street in the downtown. Figure: 5.24 shows the location map of the new center (along with its parking facility location) upon which economic expansion of the city is assumed.

Source: www.Jacksonconventioncomplex.com Figure: 5.24 Location of Jackson Convention Complex in the downtown region.

From the Figure: 5.23 (a-d), the location of Jackson convention complex on the Pascagoula Street (which is under inundation zone in the Ross Barnett Reservoir failure scenario) alerts the authorities to considering possible flood threat from the Reservoir under which the new developments are being located in the downstream region. Even though the inundation can be seen in the parts of the streets, most of the

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areas in the downtown region are observed to be trapped by flood waters flowing from I-55 till Fortification Street which makes these areas inaccessible. One of the basic intentions of planning or developmental strategies is to build safer communities by locating developments away from the hazard-prone areas. Identifying vulnerable areas under various possible scenarios plays an important role in the decision-making process. The increase in the vulnerability levels that might occur due to climate change affects in the downstream of Ross Barnett Reservoir can help the local government to improve the inclusive nature of environmental factors to their focus on achieving sustainable development. Identification of highly vulnerable blocks in Hinds County Even though the discussed indicators under vulnerability assessment expose the risks on an individual basis, the spatial intersection or combination of the identified hazard and vulnerability factors of various indicators may produce variations in the block level risk in the Hinds County. To achieve the final risk index, the vulnerability layers and the flood depth grids were combined in GIS. The indicators of flood depth, key facilities, inundated roads, population and housing units at each block level are taken into consideration. Following the calculation of integrated risk concept described by Timothy (2008), the vulnerability index construction was done for each block. For each indicator, the scores were standardized by dividing each block value by the maximum block value to create an index that ranges from 0-1. The higher index values indicate greater risk. An index is created by summing up all the indicator ranges. The final vulnerability index is achieved by standardizing the summed value which ranges from 0-1. Low (0-0.33),

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medium (0.33-0.66) and high (>0.66) ranges are generated from the column. Figure: 5.22 illustrates the spatial location of the blocks under various vulnerable zones. The transformation of block in low vulnerable to high vulnerable zones can be observed from average rainfall event to PMP+100% event.

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Figure: 5.25 (a) spatial location of the blocks under various vulnerable zones in Hinds County in average rainfall event

Figure: 5.25 (b) spatial location of the blocks under various vulnerable zones in Hinds County in PMP

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Figure: 5.25 (c) spatial location of the blocks under various vulnerable zones in Hinds County in PMP+50% event

Figure: 5.25 (d) spatial location of the blocks under various vulnerable zones in Hinds County in PMP+100% event

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Table: 5.19 describes the number of blocks in Hinds County falling under various low, medium and high vulnerable zones. With the increase in the intensity of rainfall events, the number of blocks at risk also increases in a Ross Barnett Reservoir failure case. The number of blocks in a high vulnerable zone increases by 11 from average rainfall event to PMP+100% event. An increase of 53 new blocks from average rainfall event to PMP+100% event in the low vulnerable section indicates the risk of blocks in no-risk zone getting into vulnerable zones with the increase in the rainfall intensities. Table: 5.19 Number of blocks under various vulnerable zones in Hinds County
Vulnerability Index LOW MEDIUM HIGH Total Average rainfall event 357 156 36 549 PMP event PMP+50% event PMP+100% event 410 235 47 692

379 172 40 591

400 182 45 627

Flood planning support system using Arc IMS Dissemination of the results was done by integrating the spatial representation of flood maps with the transportation network, key facilities, housing units and population (Figure: 5:26). The identified vulnerable blocks in the Hinds County are also added to the web-based tool.

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(a)

(b)
Figure: 5.26 Web-based flood planning support system developed for the Ross Barnett Reservoir failure

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The tool facilitates in visualizing the results of possible least case scenario to possible worst case scenario of a Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under various rainfall intensities by switching between the layers. With the help of the tool set provided, interested regions can be zoomed and the vulnerability of the blocks in that region can be found out by identify tools. Chapter Summary Chapter five presented the results and discussed the consequences of Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under various climate changes affects on the downstream region. The hazard was identified in terms of spatial extent and depth of flood water for four scenarios of Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under the rainfall events of average, PMP, PMP+50% and PMP+100% rainfall events. The results reveal that Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under PMP event will pose a 200-year magnitude flood; where as the enforcement of the developmental activities in the downstream counties are bound to a 100-year flood magnitude. Some blocks which are at no-risk zones in a 100-year flood magnitude might fall in high/medium/low vulnerable which shows the necessity to extend the boundaries of the spatial extent under risk in regulating any developmental activities. The vulnerability of the region towards these hazard events are analyzed in terms of the factors that influence the sustainable development of the region. The impact of Ross Barnett Reservoir failure on the cultural, historical, social, infrastructural and current developmental activities is analyzed. Integrated risk assessment for the blocks in the region is done by constructing an index on the vulnerable factors. The increase in the risk of blocks in the no-risk zone falling into

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vulnerable zones under increases intensity rainfall events is observed. An increase of 53 new blocks from average rainfall event to PMP+100% event in the low vulnerable section indicates the risk of blocks in no-risk zone getting into vulnerable zones with the increase in the rainfall intensities. Integrating the spatial representation of flood maps with the transportation network, key facilities, housing units and population using ArcIMS facilitates in visualizing the results of possible least case scenario to possible worst case scenario of a Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under various rainfall intensities by switching between the layers which helps in identifying the vulnerable blocks and thus make informed choices while formulating any developmental activities in these blocks.

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CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSIONS Implications to urban planning An implication of this research on planning would be the one said by Friedmann (1987) that an efficient planning requires scientific and technical information to put strategies into action in the public domain. The current research focuses on generating scientific information using simulation models on the near possible as well as future projections of the climate change effects that affect the spatial context of the region. Beyond the FEMA generated 100-year flood inundation maps, which are used in the current developmental activities, the current research provides more futuristic information by integrating the impact of climate changes on the inundation risk levels when a dam failure occurs. Burby (1998) stated the potentiality of non structural measures (hazard identification and vulnerability assessment as key factors) serves as an efficient tool for land use planning and growth management. Such information tools helps in achieving safe and sustainable communities. The development of a web-based flood planning support system by this research allows the land use planners or any decision making authorities to access scientifically derived information and visualize/analyze the impacts from various perspectives. Achieving sustainability in the planning activities by integrating the social, economic and environmental spheres, according to Godschalk (2003) should have a
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futuristic approach. The flood planning support system developed by the current research assists in generating valuable information about the future possible flood risk scenarios that could be possible due to climate change effects and helps in orienting land use planning activities with a futuristic vision. The current research helps the planning process with information on the exposed long term threats posed by flood hazards and facilitates the present planning activities to design in a futuristic nature and work towards retaining the functionalities of social, economical and environmental resources viable in the face of hazard. From the perspective put forth by Bolin (1993) as flood vulnerability assessment studies reveal the social injustice and equity issue aspects in the society, the information generated from the current research assists in analyzing the demographic characteristics of the region affected by the flood hazard and empower planners with scientific information to advocate on behalf of the people at-risk in the planning activities. Further research Further research in economic impact analysis: Analysis can be made at a more microlevel on an individual indicator basis with the help of the developed support system. Further research on the potential economic loss on the region for each scenario due to inundated properties presents the climate change risks in monetary terms. Extending the study area: The research analyzes the impact of Ross Barnett Reservoir under various climate change effects for the downstream region till the end of Hinds County. Impact might be present much beyond the study area. Further research can be done by considering the counties beyond Hinds County in order to get a complete

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picture of the inundation zones. Expansion of research to all the counties under affect of Ross Barnett Reservoir failure can provide integrated information, which could be useful in planning activities. Sensitivity of Land use and land cover: Another dimension of further research would be testing the proposed land use maps for these counties against these scenarios in order to check their possible outcomes on the vulnerability of the region. Policy Implications: The present study does not intend to investigate or research the policy implications of the EAP of the high hazard dams in the state of Mississippi. Further research in this area can be worth exploring. Conclusions The objective of the study is to assess the potential impact of climate changes on the inundation risk levels in a dam break scenario. The impact of Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under various rainfall events on the downstream regions, with Hinds County as the focus, has been researched. Even though the rainfall projection for the state of Mississippi shows an increase of 5%-10% on the average rainfall event (5.39 inches), the impact of climate change affects may occur in terms of increase in the intensity of the rainfall event. The probable maximum precipitation event (16.75 inches) for the study region is observed to be much higher than the 10%-25% increase on the average rainfall event. In order to capture the worst possible scenario that could occur when the Ross Barnett Reservoir breaks in this event, the study has simulated flood scenarios using the average to Probable maximum precipitation rainfall events and an increase of 50%-100% on that event.

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Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under the impact of climate changes affects the downstream region in terms of spatial extent and depth grids till the end of Hinds County. With the increase in the rainfall intensities, the area under flood waters also increase along with deeper water depths. While the possible least scenario in an average rainfall event itself has tremendous impact on the downstream, the PMP rainfall event almost equals a 200-year flood magnitude. With the PMP event been already experienced by the study region (in April 1991), the scenario of the Ross Barnett Reservoir failure in this event bears high possibility and utmost significance. The immediate down stream region of Ross Barnett Reservoir, the City of Jackson, is considered as the economic and cultural hub of the State of Mississippi. To improve the quality of life of its residents, the department of Planning and Development at the City of Jackson is focusing on achieving sustainable development by promoting economic development in the region. Numerous projects are being planned at the downtown region involving million of dollar funds. The planning division also took the responsibility of stimulating housing development while preserving the regions historic neighborhoods and land marks (City of Jackson). The regulations for all these developmental activities are bound to NFIP generated 100year flood maps. As the inundation of the Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under PMP event almost equals a 200-year flood, the impact of flooding event on the downstream regions can be far more destructive. The flood maps (from average rainfall event to PMP+100% event) obtained from the simulations reveal the fact that the impact of Ross Barnett Reservoir failure on the cultural/historical, economical, social, infrastructural amenities can disturb the inter-

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connected functionalities of the state capital. As the downtown region is surrounded by flood waters in all the four rainfall scenarios, administrative and commercial functionalities can come to a stand still. Various cultural centers (which host 700 events per year and upon which large number of businesses are dependant), museums at downtown and Lake Land Drive are affected by the Ross Barnett Reservoir failure either by inundation or by becoming inaccessible due to closures of inundated roads leading to these facilities. The inundation of transportation infrastructural facilities such as Jackson Amtrak, Jackson transit system in the possible least case scenario of average rainfall event shows how the economic functionality of the state capital will be hampered. The results reveal the fact that the basic intentions of planning or developmental strategies are to build safer communities by locating developments away from the hazard-prone areas. Identifying vulnerable areas under various possible scenarios plays an important role in the decision-making process. The increase in the vulnerability levels that might occur due to climate change affects in the downstream of Ross Barnett Reservoir can help the local government to improve the inclusive nature of environmental factors to their focus on achieving sustainable development. The overall objective of the research is to generate information for an improved or enhanced land use planning with respect to flood hazards. By exposing the long-term flood threats, the study assists the planning authorities at local or county level in identifying vulnerable zones and incorporating the essence of information in its future developmental activities.

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The integration of geospatial technologies (Arc GIS) with HEC HMS and HEC RAS 1-D flood simulation model indicate the capability of simulating flood events and spatially depicting the degree of exposure or vulnerability of the region towards a hazard event in terms of inundation extent and depth of water levels. Information tools developed using the combination of these technologies generate invaluable information and assist the decision making authorities to make informed choices towards mitigating the catastrophic effects of flooding disaster. Disseminating information by developing a web-based information tool using Arc IMS facilitates in delivering scientifically derived information that can provide equal access to the data. Such information tools helps in practicing participatory planning in an efficient manner by empowering the public with better information and thus promote the role of individuals and neighborhoods in the evaluation of the strategies or plans. Adapting such futuristic information to planning processes helps in building a strategic way to build safe and sustainable communities.

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APPENDICES

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Demonstration of the Methodology for the 1979 Flood Simulation As a part of the study, a preliminary analysis was done by simulating the 1979 flood in Jackson, MS. The process helped not only in understanding the actual implementation of the methodology but also the final preliminary results helped in validating the output obtained from HEC GeoRAS and HECRAS models by comparing the simulated flood scenario (using 1979 hydrology data obtained from USGS) with the photographs and maps of 1979 flood in Jackson obtained from NOAA and US Army Corps. The preprocessing of the geospatial data for the City of Jackson was done using HEC GeoRAS. The data regarding the DEM (MARIS), stream network (USGS-NHD), Land use and manning values (USGS), levees (US Army Corps), bridges (HAZUSMH) is collected and pre-processed by digitizing the cross-sectional lines for the study region. The preprocessed geospatial data is then exported to HECRAS. To simulate the 1979 flood, hydrology data of 1979 (obtained from USGS) for the available stations at Pearl River at Ross Barnett reservoir, Hanging Moss creek, Eubanks creek, Town creek, Lynch Creek, Pearl River at Jackson and Cany creek were used to run this model. A steady flow simulation was performed on HEC RAS model and the output was exported to HEC Geo RAS for post processing to delineate the flood inundation areas.

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Validating HEC RAS Model by comparing the output with NOAA maps and Photographs As a part of analyzing and validating the HEC RAS model, the output is compared with the 1979 flood map obtained from NOAA (Figure:a1)

i) 1979 Flood Inundation Map (NOAA)

ii) 1979 Flood Inundation Map from HECRAS model

Figure a1: Comparison of NOAA map with HEC RAS output for 1979-flood

It can be observed that the flood inundation results simulated through HEC RAS using 1979 USGS flow data matches excellently with the actual 1979 flood map provided by NOAA. Some variations in the output from the NOAA map could be due to the DEM of 1996 (MARIS) and changes in the land use/cover that were used in the model.

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The output depicts that the City of Jackson is susceptible to flooding from the Pearl River as a number of creeks run through the city such as Hanging Moss, Eubanks creek, Towns Creek, Lynch Creek, Cany Creek etc. Flooding on the Pearl River can cause water levels on these creeks that feed into the Pearl River to rise (City of Jackson). The output indicates this fact as most of areas in the City of Jackson that are inundated, were along these creeks. The levees that were built for a 100-year flood scenario along the downtown area could not resist the 1979 flood of a 200-year magnitude. In 1979, the Pearl River flooded the fairgrounds and coliseum as well as parts of downtown (City of Jackson). Figure:2 depicts the comparison of a set of NOAA photograph with the HECRAS output. Figure 2c depicts a picture of the Mississippi Coliseum and a part of downtown that were under inundation. The HECRAS model generated similar inundation pattern which is close to the real situation in 1979 (Figure2d). An area between Coliseum and downtown area which was not inundated can also be compared from the picture and the HEC RAS output which provides validity to the model. Similarly, the comparison in picture 2(e-f) illustrates that both the flood inundation map obtained from HEC RAS and the photograph from NOAA depicts similar image of the coliseum area where a part of I-55 is under inundation. Another photograph, in figure 2a, represents a part of I-55 near the Lake land Drive that was inundated in this flood event. The HECRAS results can be said to be valid as similar representation can be observed showing part of I-55 near the Lake land Drive under the inundation area (Figure 2b).

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As the results yielded by the HEC RAS model are close to the real scenario of 1979 flood, the model can be validated as suitable to run future stream flow scenarios.

I-55 (Lakeland Drive)

(a)

(b)

Downtown
Coliseum

(c)

(d)

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(e)
Figure:2 Validation of HEC RAS output with NOAA photographs

(f)

Results of the Scenarios

Table A1 Inflows obtained from HEC HMS for various rainfall events
Inflow Modeled Inflow + 894 Scenario-1 (4272+894) Scenario-2 (14137.7+894) Scenario-3 (21293.2++894) Scenario-4 (28434.7++894) Modeled Inflow + 1888.49 Scenario-5 (4272+1888.49) Scenario-6 (14137.7+1888.49) Scenario-7 (21293.2+1888.49) Scenario-8 (28434.7+1888.49) Modeled Inflow + 3220.215 Scenario-9 (4272+3220.215) Scenario-10 (14137.7+3220.215) Scenario-11 (21293.2+3220.215) Scenario-12 (28434.7+3220.215) Modeled Inflow + 4565.94 Scenario-13 (4272+4565.94) Scenario-14 (14137.7+4565.94) Scenario-15 (21293.2+4565.94) Scenario-16 (28434.7+4565.94)

Average Rainfall (PMP) PMP+50% PMP+100%

Figure 3 (a-l) represent the spatial extent of inundation occurred due to Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under various rainfall events

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3a) Scenario-5 3b)Scenario-9 Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under Average Rainfall Event

3c)Scenario-13

3d)Scenario-2 3e)Scenario-10 3f)Scenario-14 Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under PMP Rainfall Event

3g)Scenario-3 3h)Scenario-7 3i)Scenario-15 Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under PMP+50% Rainfall Event

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3j)Scenario-4 3k)Scenario-8 3l)Scenario-12 Ross Barnett Reservoir failure under PMP+100% Rainfall Event

Source: www.usgs.gov Figure: 4a Spatial location of USGS monitoring stations in the downstream of Ross Barnett Reservoir

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Definition of Terms Earth Fill Dam: An embankment dam in which more than 50% of the total volume is formed of compacted earth layers is generally smaller than 3-inch size. High Hazard Dam: A high hazard dam is defined as a dam whose failure would cause a loss of life and significant property damage Significant Hazard Dam: A significant hazard dam may cause significant damage to main roads, railroads or cause interruption of service to important public utilities Probable Maximum Precipitation: The greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration that is physically possible over a given area at a particular geographical location at a certain time of year

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