UNIVERSITI UTARA MALAYSIA COLLEGE OF ARTS AND SCIENCES COURSE CODE : SQQP 5023 COURSE NAME : DECISION ANALYSIS

LECTURER : (email: nhaslinda@uum.edu.my tel: 049286939; 012-5907666) 1.0 COURSE SYNOPSIS Mathematical tools have been applied for thousands of years; however, the formal study and application of quantitative techniques to practical decision making is largely a product of the twentieth century. Decision analysis refers to a body of techniques that allows a decision-maker to evaluate uncertainty, risk, and multiple objectives decision problems. Among the topics that will be covered in this course are decision theory, forecasting, linear programming, transportation and assignment models, waiting line analysis, simulation, network flow models and project management. 2.0 LEARNING OUTCOMES 2.1 2.2 2.3 To develop a conceptual understanding of commonly applied management science techniques in the context of business problems. To apply the selected management science techniques in the context of business problems. To discuss the assumptions, the advantages and the limitations of each of the management science techniques in solving business related problems.

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REFERENCES Anderson, D. R., Sweeney, D. J., Williams, T. A., & Martin, K. (2008). An introduction to management science: Quantitative approaches to decision making (12th Ed.). Ohio: South-Western College Publishing. Albright, S. C. & Winston, W. L. (2007). Management science modeling, Quebec: Thomson Higher Education. Hillier, F. S. & Hillier, M. S. (2003). Introduction to management science: A modeling and case studies approach with spreadsheets. New York: McGraw Hill. Lawrence Jr, J. A. & Pasternack, B. A. (2002). Applied management science: Modeling, spreadsheet analysis, and communication for decision making , New York: John Wiley & Sons Inc. Render, B., Stair Jr, R. M., & Hanna, M. E. (2012). Quantitative analysis for management (11th Ed.). Pearson. Taylor, W.B. (2013). Introduction to management science (11th Ed.). New Jersey: Pearson.

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COURSE CONTENTS DATE TITLE Introduction Approaches in Quantitative Modeling A Historical Overview The Process of Quantitative Modeling Review of Probability Concepts Fundamental Concepts Bayess Theorem Random Variables & Probability Distribution Fundamentals Of Decision Theory 3 hrs An Overview of the Decision Theory Types of Decision Making Situations Decision Making Under Risk Decision Making Under Uncertainty Decision Trees And Utility Theory 3 hrs Decision Trees Probability Values Estimated by Bayesian Analysis Utility Theory Forecasting Selecting a Forecasting Method Approaches to Forecasting Qualitative Approaches to Forecasting o Delphi Method o Panel Consensus Statistical Forecasting Methods o Time Series o Regression Methods o Econometric Models Linear programming Formulating linear programming problems The Graphical Method o Maximization Problem o Minimization Problem Post Optimality Analysis Linear Programming Applications Transportation and Assignment Problems Formulating the Transportation Problem HOURS 3

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TITLE Solving the Transportation Problem o Stepping Stone Algorithm o MODI Method The Assignment Problem

HOURS

Waiting Lines Analysis The Basic Structure of Queuing The Queuing Models Single-Channel Queue Multiple-Channel Queue Applications of Queuing Models Simulation Intoduction to simulation modeling Output analysis Verification and validation Network Flow Models The Shortest Route Problem The Minimum Spanning Tree Problem The Maximum Flow Problem Project Management Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) PERT / Cost Critical Path Methods (CPM) CPM / Cost TEST

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TEACHING METHOD This class will be taught through 42 hours of lectures and discussions.

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ASSESSMENT Assessment will be made by examinations, assignments and project work. Coursework 70% Test 30%