Algebraic Models

Working with
Algebraic Models
Answering mathematical questions about the world
Written by Alastair Lupton and Anthony Harradine
Working with Algebraic Models.

Version 1.01 July 2007. Written by Anthony Harradine and Alastair Lupton Copyright Harradine and Lupton 2007.
Copyright Information.
The materials within, in their present form, can be used free of charge for the purpose of facilitating the learning of children in such a way that no monetary profit is made. The materials within, in their present form, can be reprinted free of charge if being used for the purpose of facilitating the learning of children in such a way that no monetary profit is made. The materials cannot be used or reproduced in any other publications or for use in any other way without the express permission of the authors.
Index
Using an Algebraic Model:
Australias population in the future.

Activity Checkpoints
Developing an Algebraic Model:
Managing a gas field.

Verifying an Algebraic Model:
10th Planet Fact or Fiction?

Refining an Algebraic Model:
Obesity a global epidemic.


- An application involving the use of algebraic models Introduction It is obvious that a nations future is affected by the size and composition of its population. Population issues vary from country to country. In the developing world a common issue is unsustainable population growth. In the western world the issue is more often an aging and declining population. In countries like Germany population decline is already being experienced. Whilst Australias population is currently growing, projections suggest a possible decline in the near future . It is in this context that vigorous debate has taken place about the growth and composition of Australias future population (see left). Population projections for Australia. The Commonwealths Department of Immigration and Multicultural Affairs spends a lot of time and money developing projections about the future of Australias population. These projections are based on mathematical models that combine current trends with sets of assumptions about the future. Different projections are based on different assumptions. One projection might assume that current trends will continue, another might incorporate a fall in fertility levels and a third might include an increase in net migration. These projections present some what if scenarios that can help governments develop policies and plan for the future. Aspects of population change. The data that government departments use for population projections is supplied by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Their data distinguishes between two aspects of population change. The first is Natural Increase, which is the amount by which births exceed deaths. The second is Net Overseas Migration, which is the amount by which immigration into Australia exceeds emigration out of Australia. Population models deal separately with these two aspects of population change, and then combine them to provide an overall picture of the future.
i
Sydney Morning Herald

February 16, 2006
Danna Vale defends Muslim comments

A federal Liberal MP has defended her controversial comments on Australia becoming a Muslim nation as being about population figures. Sydney MP Danna Vale was criticised after saying this week that Australia was aborting itself out of existence and could become a Muslim nation.
Copyright 2007, Harradine and Lupton
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Activity 1: Modeling population change due to Natural Increase. Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data, a model for Australias population change due to Natural Increase N (in thousands per year) is the function
N = 100 + 45 (0.92)
where x represents time, in years since 1990.
Working with this model. A. Enter the
W mode of a CASIO ClassPad 300.

x
as an exponent.
B. Enter the function for N into the y1 row. Use the M key to enter
C. Set an appropriate View Window. Tap 6 to see the view window settings. Set the View Window so that the graph is drawn from 1990 ( x =0) until to 2006. The graph will need to incorporate population values of up to N = 150. Your choice of scale will determine how often tick marks are made on the axes. The dot value will be set automatically. Tap or press l to enter each of your settings. You can also use f and c to move within elements of this window. Tap OK to exit this window. D. Draw the function by tapping $. E. To obtain function values from your graph by tracing tap u then = or tap Analysis : Trace. Use ! and $ to move from left to right. If you cannot move to the exact
value you
require just enter it on your keypad. 1. Use this model for N to determine the change in Australias population due to Natural Increase in the years a. 1990 b. 2000 c. 2006 2. Describe how, according to your model, Natural Increase has contributed to Australias population in the years between 1990 and 2006.
Checkpoint
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Activity 2: Modeling population change due to Net Overseas Migration. Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data, a model for Australias population change due to Net Overseas Migration M (in thousands per year) is the function
M = 8 x + 30 where x represents time, in years since 1990.
Before you start work with this new model, deselect the previous model by tapping on the ticked box. The tick will disappear, showing that the function is no longer selected. Repeating this process will reselect y1. Working with Net Overseas Migration 1. Draw a graph of this model for M, Australias population change due to Net Overseas Migration for the period 1990 until 2020. You will need to adjust your View Window. 2. Use this model to determine Australias population change due to Net Overseas Migration in a. b. c. d. 1990 2000 2006 2020
3. Describe how, according to your model, Net Overseas Migration has contributed to Australias population over this period.
Checkpoint Activity 3: Representing total population change. 1. By reselecting your model for N (and leaving your model for M selected) draw a graph of both models for the years 1990 until 2020 on the same axes. 2. Find the year in which these two models intersect. 3. Interpret what this result means about Australias population change, at and after that time.
Checkpoint
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Activity 4: Modeling total population change 1. Write down an algebraic model for T, Australias total population change in the years since 1990. 2. Represent this algebraic model graphically. 3. Determine the year in which Australias total population will first increase by more than 300 000 individuals, according to your model. 4. Of these 300 000 person increase in population, what percentage will come about by Net Overseas Migration, according to your models?
Checkpoint
The information about, and graph of, long-term population projections comes
from the Australian Immigration Fact Sheet Population Projections. This is published by the Australian Governments Department of Immigration and Multicultural Affairs and can be found at http://www.immi.gov.au/facts/15population.htm
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Checkpoints
Activity 1: Modeling population change due to Natural Increase. Part B Entering a function.
Part C Setting a View Window. Starting from the Default view window (shown left), Set the xmin as 0 l, xmax as 16 l and a scale of 1 l. Arrow up E or down R to move between rows. Set the ymin as 0, the ymax as 150 and a scale of 10.
Part D Drawing a graph
Part E Tracing to obtain function values Tapping u then = or tapping Analysis : Trace starts the tracing process, which always starts in the middle of the graph (horizontally speaking).
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Checkpoints
Arrowing left ! and right $ will get you to x=0 and x=16
To get to x=10 you just need to type 10 while in Trace
Answers. 1. a. In 1990 Natural Increase caused Australias population to grow by 145 000 according to the model for N. b. In 2000 Natural Increase caused Australias population to grow by 119 550 according to the model for N (to 5 significant figures). c. In 2006 Natural Increase caused Australias population to grow by 111 850 according to the model for N (to 5 significant figures). 2. Natural Increase has caused Australias population to grow in the years from 1990 to 2006, but in each successive year it has caused the population to grow by less than the growth of the previous year, according to our model.
Activity 2: Modeling population change due to Net Overseas Migration. Deselecting a function. By tapping the ticked/unticked box a function can be deselected and reselected. Only selected functions are drawn.
Copyright 2007 Harradine and Lupton
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Checkpoints
Answers. 1. The View Window will need to be changed to include the years up to 2020 (x=30) as well as N values of up to at least N=270. A set of View Window settings are shown below. Tap OK and then $ to draw the graph.
2. Using Trace, and entering the x values required, the following information can be obtained
From this we can see that, a. In 1990 Australias population change due to Net Overseas Migration was 30 000 individuals, according to the model. b. In 2000 Australias population change due to Net Overseas Migration was 110 000 individuals, according to the model. c. In 2006 Australias population change due to Net Overseas Migration was 158 000 individuals, according to the model. d. In 2020 Australias population change due to Net Overseas Migration will be 270 000 individuals, according to the model. 3. Over this period Net Overseas Migration has made an ever-increasing contribution to Australias population growth, according to the model.
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Checkpoints
Activity 3: Representing total population change. Answers. 1. By reselecting and drawing we get 2. The year when N and M intersect can be found using Trace. When using Trace with two or more graphs drawn the E and R keys (or screen icons) allow you to move from one function to another.
Note: If you wish to take advantage of the full size graph (as above) you need to reset the view window after resizing using r.
The time of intersection can also be found by using the Intersect command, part of the G-Solve menu. This, and other useful commands, can be obtained by tapping Analysis : G-Solve and choosing Intersect. This confirms that the models predict that N and M will intersect near the time x =11, corresponding to the year 2001. 3. This result means that, in 2001, Natural Increase and Net Overseas Migration made equal contributions to Australias population increase. After that time Net Overseas Migration makes a greater contribution to Australias population growth than Natural Increase, according to our model.
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Checkpoints
Activity 4: Modeling total population change Answers. 1. Using the idea that Total Population Change = Natural Increase + Net Overseas Migration we can define a model for Australias Total Population Change T (in thousands per year) as the function T=N+M which, in terms of
x , can be written as
T = 100 + 45 (0.92) x + 8 x + 30 where x represents time, in years since 1990.
2. Either version of the model for Total Population Change can be graphed as shown. To enter the first version, y needs to be obtained from the abc keyboard (not the y key), as it is the name of a function. The second version can be easily entered by highlighting the first expression required, then tapping on it and dragging it into y4, then entering the + and repeating the procedure for the second expression.
3. The year in which T will exceed 300, according to our model can be found, using Trace, to be 2010. 4. In 2010 Net Overseas Migration is predicted by our model to be 191 900, roughly 64% of Australias Total Population Change.
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- An application involving the development of algebraic models -
Introduction There is a great deal of planning involved in running a gas production site such as the one pictured. Once a site has been chosen and gas wells have been drilled, productivity is monitored by measuring the rate of flow of the gas out of each well. The scenario (a real one) A gas production site in central Australia contains, potentially, up to six wells. At five of these, wells are already installed and producing gas. After considering demand levels and production costs the Reservoir Engineer decides that, for the site to be considered viable, the average daily rate of flow from the entire site in any given month must be at least 5 MMscf/day (millions of cubic feet per day). If the average daily rate for a given month falls below this, the sixth well will be installed to increase gas production. The table below gives the actual average daily flow rate from the site for the months shown. During this period only five wells are installed and producing gas. Month (end date)
5/31/1998 6/30/1998 7/31/1998 8/31/1998 9/30/1998 10/31/1998 11/30/1998 12/31/1998 1/31/1999 2/28/1999 3/31/1999 4/30/1999 5/31/1999
Relative time Rate of Gas Flow t (months) f (MMscf/d)

51.717 47.724 36.717 31.755 28.066 22.248 22.199 19.154 16.377 14.611 13.403 12.72 11.285
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Reservoir Engineers dont wait until the rate falls below the value they have set. They will use the data to predict when the sixth well should be installed. Activity 1: Viewing the gas flow data. A. Fill in the Relative time (months) column of the table above so that the variable t represents the number of months that have passed since the commencement of data collection. B. Enter the data into manner Tap on the heading row of list1 Use the abc k to name this list as time press w. Enter the relative time values in list1, pressing
I mode in a CASIO ClassPad 300 in the following
w after each value.

C. In a similar fashion enter the values for f, the monthly rate of gas flow values into an appropriately named list2. D. To represent this data graphically Tap on G or tap SetGraph then Setting Once satisfied that StatGraph 1 is set appropriately tap Set.i Now tap y to drawn the graph as set.
E. To have a look at the data represented by the marks on the screen Tap on Analysis : Trace or tap =. Press ! and $ - on arrow pad or screen - to move through your scatter plot. Time (x) and flow (y) values are shown at the bottom of the graph. 1. Describe, in words, what happens to the flow values as time passes. 2. Do you think that a sixth well will be required? 3. At what time would you estimate that it will be required?
Checkpoint
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Activity 2: Developing a model for the gas flow data. These questions might be more easily answered if we had an algebraic model for the relationship between gas flow and time, for the gas field in question. To develop such an algebraic model, Tap Calc to see the types of algebraic models that the ClassPad 300 can fit to data. By tapping on your choice of model type, the settings for that regression are confirmed, the co-efficients of the best fitting model of that type are calculatedii and then this model is drawn. Shown here is the process for a Linear Reg(ression) moldel for this data
In the Set Calculation screen you have the option of copying the model into a selected row of W mode, as well as copying the residuals of your model into your choice of list.
Clearly a linear model does not accurately represent the relationship between flow and time. 1. Experiment with other types of algebraic models. Use Copy Formula to store the equation of your choice of model in
W.
2. Use your choice of model to predict in what month the rate of gas flow will drop to below 5 MMscf/day and hence, when the sixth well should be installed to boost gas production.
Checkpoint Activity 3: Further modelling. This data covers the next 18 months of gas flows. Month (end date)
6/30/1999 7/31/1999 8/31/1999 9/30/1999 10/31/1999
Relative time t (months)
Rate of Gas Flow f (MMscf/d)

12.992 9.21 8.836 5.874 4.938
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11/30/1999 12/31/1999 1/31/2000 2/29/2000 3/31/2000 4/30/2000 5/31/2000 6/30/2000 7/31/2000 8/31/2000 9/30/2000 10/31/2000 11/30/2000 12/31/2000 11.775 16.709 15.579 14.861 14.067 26.285 28.882 24.963 23.124 20.43 18.963 17.335 15.61 14.516
1. Use this data to suggest the month in which the sixth well was actually installed. Compare this with the prediction you made in the previous activity. The site that we have been studying only had the potential for six wells. Hence, when the average daily rate of flow falls below 5 MMscf/day after the installation of the sixth well, the site will be closed down. It is very important for companies to be able to forecast when such an event will occur. 2. Use the extra data supplied above to develop a model of the flow of gas from the site in the time after the installation of the sixth well. 3. Use this model to predict when this site will be shut down.
Checkpoint
i
Note: Upon entering Set StatGraphs it is possible to set up and turn on or off
up to 9 graphs, change Graph Type, change the list data on which these graphs are based and change Mark Type. The default settings will need to be changed to generate graphs of different types in different circumstances.
ii
Also displayed are the r2 value and MSe. The r2 value known as the Co-efficient of Determination represents the percentage of variation in the dependant variable that can explained by variation in the independent variable. The MSe value is the sum of the squares of the residuals of the model under consideration, corresponding to the quantity that is minimised when determining the co-efficients of the model of best fit. Hence MSe is the minimum sum of squared errors.
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Checkpoints
Activity 1: Viewing the gas flow data. Parts B and C Data entry The input of headings and data should look like for time
and similarly for flow Part D Drawing a graph. Tapping G (or tapping SetGraph and then Setting) allows us to set the graph up appropriately. The graph is then drawn by tapping y.
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Checkpoints
Part E Tracing through the graph. Tap on Analysis : Trace or tap = then press ! and $.
Answers 1. It falls/decreases in a fairly consistent manner, quickly at first, then more slowly as time passes 2. Yes, it looks like it will keep falling until it falls below 5 MMscf/day. It might level off below it reaches 5 MMscf/day, but in the context of gas extraction this is unlikely. 3. In around 6 months time (i.e. December 1999) is a very rough estimate.
Activity 2: Developing a model for the gas flow data.
Tap Calc to see some options Answers 1. Investigating a quadratic model, for example, by tapping Quadratic Reg provides the following model
We can see that the model, in general, fits well but clearly is about to turn and start increasing towards the end of the time period. This makes extrapolation to find when the flow falls below 5 MMscf/day impossible, as a quadratic model says that it never will, but the scatter plot and common sense suggest otherwise. Looking for a model type that decays to a flow of zero, two algebraic model types could be considered, a simple exponential model and a power model.
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Checkpoints
Investigating a simple exponential model by tapping on Exponential Reg,
We can see that an exponential model fits the data well (after the first few points). It fits particularly well as time passes, making it suitable for the extrapolation that we require. Investigating the power model by tapping on Power Reg gives,
This shows that this type of model fits the shape of the data less well.
If a visual comparison of two or more models is required it is best to copy their formulae into rows of
W,
tap on ! and check that they are selected, and then tap on y to add these graphs to your scatter plot.
2. With our chosen model stored, we can work with it in
W, using the full range of graphical tools that are

available in that mode. The view window settings from the last graph drawn, the scatter plot drawn in
I mode, are unchanged by
changing modes. All we need to do to graph the model is make sure that it is selected (tap the box to tick it) then tap $, getting this result
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Checkpoints
The extrapolation that we wish to do, to find when the model predicts that the gas flow falls below 5 MMscf/day, is equivalent to extending the graph to the right. By tapping 6 we can change the X max up to 25 months.
To find when the graph of the flow falls below 5 MMscf/day we can do an x calculation. Tap Analysis : G-Solve : x-Cal then enter the value y=5. The screen sequence looks like this
This provides the crucial x value of 18.7, corresponding to a time of November 1999 when the sixth well will be required. If, when performing an x-cal the ClassPad 300 responds with Not Found then the y value entered does not occur in the current view window and you may need to widen your view!
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Checkpoints
Activity 3: Further modelling The output fell below 5 MMscf/day in October 1999 and the sixth well seems to have started producing in November 1999. This corresponds quite well with the prediction that was made. Using the data from April 2000, when the sixth well seems to be in full production, the data we need to model and its scatter plot appears on the left,
..and the exponential regression model for this data is drawn on the right.
This model allows us, when stored in
W mode, to predict the time when the
gas production site is no longer viable.
This equates to a prediction of November, 2001.
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10th planet fact or fiction?

- An application involving the verification of an algebraic model Introduction The planets of our solar system are more than just well-known aspects of astronomy. They are a part of popular culture. However, memory aids such as My Very Easy Mnemonic Just Summed Up Nine Planets may need to be revised, with the recent discovery of what has been claimed to be the 10th planet of our solar system.i This new discovery is currently called 2003UB313 and has been nick-named Xena while it waits for its official name. At present it is roughly 15 billion kilometres from the Sun, 100 times more distant than the Earth. It has a very elliptical 560 year orbit, which is inclined at nearly 45
o
2003UB313 (artists impression) with the Sun in the background
to the orbit of the
other planets, as shown here. This unusual orbit suggests the possibility that this new planet may not conform to the laws of planetary motion, as known to humankind since the 16th century. Keplers Laws of Planetary Motion The three fundamental laws that describe planetary motion were determined by Johannes Kepler, born in Germany in 1571. His Third Law, when simplifiedii says that, if R is the average radius of a planets orbit, measured in Astronomical Units (AU) and P is the period (length of time) of a planets orbit in earth years, then
R3= P2
So, how well does 21st century information about the nine planets fit this 400 year old law, given that three of these planets were unknown at the time it was formulated? How well does Keplers law describe 2003UB313 with its unusual orbit?
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Activity 1: Viewing the data - theory vs practice The table below contains data relating to the orbit of the nine established planets of the solar system Orbital Period P(earth years) 0.241 0.615 1 1.88 11.86 29.46 84 164.8 247.7 Orbital Radius average R (AU) 0.387 0.723 1 1.524 5.203 9.539 19.18 30.06 39.53
Planet Mercury Venus Earth Mars Jupiter Saturn Uranus Neptune Pluto
Before we view the data in scatter plot form we need to decide which variable we will represent horizontally and which we will represent vertically. As there is no obvious independent or dependant variable, the choice is somewhat arbitrary. Whilst either representation will suffice, we might choose to allocate the more likely input variable to the horizontal axis. The period is more easily measured than the radius, as it can be calculated based on movement through the sky. This makes it more likely to be input, so we will allocate it to the horizontal axis. A. Draw a scatter plot of period verses radius, using a CASIO ClassPad 300. To see how well Keplers third law fits this data we would like to graph an algebraic model upon the scatter plot. To be graphed on the CASIO ClassPad 300, Keplers third law needs to written in the form P = ... . By taking the cube root of both sides of R = P we obtain
3 2
R = 3 P 2 which simplifies to R = P 3 .
B. Graph this theoretical model on your scatter plot Tap on !. In this W window, enter Keplers third law. Tap on y.
Checkpoint
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Activity 2: Looking closer how well does the theory fit the practice? By inspecting the graph on the previous page it seems that Keplers law fits the data on planetary orbits very well, but what if we looked more closely at the differences between what Keplar predicted and what has been observed? Tap in the Cal row at the bottom of the Stat window underneath list3. Enter period^(2/3).
1. For which planets orbit does Keplers third law fit least well? 2. How can this discrepancy between the observed data and the models prediction be best represented?
Activity 3: What about 2003UB313 ? Given that 2003UB313 has an orbital period of 560 years and an average orbit radius of 67.5 AU 1. Add 2003UB313 to the data on the other 9 planets. 2. Redraw the scatter plot to include 2003UB313. 3. Draw Keplers third law on your new scatter plot. 4. Look at how well Keplers law describes the data on the orbit of 2003UB313. 5. Does Keplers law work as well for 2003UB313 as it does for the other nine planets? Explain your answer in detail.
Checkpoint
i
What constitutes a planet is a surprisingly complex question. Whilst the
International Astronomical Union is yet to make a ruling, the finders of 2003UB313 consider that anything larger than Pluto should be considered a planet. On that basis 2003UB313, which approximately 5% bigger than Pluto, is the Suns 10th planet.
ii
Keplers third law states that the ratio of the square of a planets orbital period P
Ra 3 Pa
2
to the cube of its orbital radius R is constant so, for two planets a and b,
Rb3 Pb 2
If we take earth as one of the two planets, with an orbit of 1 earth year and an orbital radius of 1 AU (where AU the Astronomical Unit - is defined as the orbital radius of the Earth) then the laws simplifies to
Ra 3 Pa 2
=1 1 implying
3 Ra
= Pa .
2
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Checkpoints
Activity 1: Viewing the data - theory vs practice Part A Drawing the scatter plot. Enter the data into I then tap G (or tap SetGraph then Setting ) to set up your graph. Tap Set. Tap y to obtain the scatter plot of radius R against period P.
Part B Graphing the theoretical model. Tap ! to open the Graph Editor. Enter Keplers third law. Tap y to add its graph to your Scatter plot.
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Checkpoints
Activity 2: Looking closer how well does the theory fit the practice? We can obtain the radii that Keplers law predicts for the nine planets by entering his formula as a calculation in list3. This is done by tapping in the Cal row at the bottom of list3 and then entering period^(2/3). Once this is done the variation between the observed radii and the predicted values in list3 can be studied. Answers 1. Keplers third law fits Pluto worst. 2. The discrepancy between observed and model value is 0.09 AU. This seems very small in absolute terms. In relative terms, expressed as a percentage of the observed value of 39.53 it equates to an error of 0.22% (less than a quarter of a percent error). This discrepancy is not trivial as, because an AU is roughly 150 million kilometres, it equates to around 13.5 million kilometers. Activity 3: What about 2003UB313 ? Answers 1. 2.
3.
4.
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Checkpoints
5. A more detailed analysis of the errors in the way a model fits given data can be completed in I mode, using the ideas that Error = measured value model value Percentage Relative Error =
error 100% measured value
These values can be calculated in following way: Name the list you plan to use (if desired). Tap on the Cal row of the list you are using. Enter the formula required.
The errors in the values given by Keplers model can found by,
This allows us to determine the percentage relative error for Keplars model
The abs( command is found in the cat menu on the keyboard, seen above left.
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Checkpoints
This information can be seen more clearly in a table like the one below Radius (AU)
0.387 0.723 1 1.524 5.203 9.539 19.18 30.06 39.53 67.5
Planet
Mercury Venus Earth Mars Jupiter Saturn Uranus Neptune Pluto 2003UB313
Period
0.241 0.615 1 1.88 11.86 29.46 84 164.8 247.7 560
Radius (Kepler)
0.38726778 0.72318611 1 1.5232525 5.20063602 9.53868473 19.1801879 30.0587884 39.4412501 67.9399701
Error
0.00026778 0.00018611 0 0.0007475 0.00236398 0.00031527 0.0001879 0.00121157 0.08874995 0.43997009
Relative Error %
0.06919282 0.02574158 0 0.04904857 0.045435 0.00330503 0.00097965 0.00403052 0.22451289 0.65180754
Based on this table, Keplers law does not fit 2003UB313 as well as it does for the other planets. The laws relative error for 2003UB313 is three times bigger that its relative error for Pluto, which in turn is three times bigger than the relative error for any of the other 8 planets. It does, however, still have a greater than 99% accuracy for 2003UB313. Further, given that the orbital data for 2003UB313 is first of many measurements that will be taken of this new planet, it may turn out that error is with the initial measurements and not with Keplers law!
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Obesity a global epidemic

- An application involving the refinement of an algebraic model Introduction Obesity and the health problems that it causesi, are widely acknowledged as an epidemic of global proportionsii. As part of this epidemic, Australia is currently experiencing significant increases in overweight and obesity levels.
Percentage 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 1985 1995
Prevalence of Overweight and Obese Children aged 7 to 15 years.
Healthy Overweight (not obese) Obese
The percentage of Australians over 25 who are overweight has more than doubled in 15 years, from 12.1% in 1988 to 26.7% in 2003. In the same time period the percentage of Australians over 25 who are obese has increased by more than 360%, from 1.7% to 7.9%iii.
Obesity in the young - tomorrows health crisis today Perhaps of greatest concern, some of the most dramatic increases in obesity are seen amongst the young. In Australians aged 7 to 15 years, obesity tripled between 1985 and 1995, affecting 5.1% of children; with a further 15.7% overweight. This trend has continued and accelerated, with recent studies suggesting that obesity levels amongst children have now reached nearly 8%. Even more worryingly, obesity is starting to occur earlier in life, with around 5% of preschoolers now considered obese. Measuring Obesity. Gathering data like the information presented above requires an accepted definition of who is overweight and obese. The accepted definition involves an individuals Body Mass Index (BMI).Persons over 18 having a BMI of, greater than 25 are considered overweight. greater than 30 are considered obese.
There are similar cut-offs for children. What is the BMI? The Body Mass Index is an approximation for an individuals percentage body fat. An individuals BMI can be found by dividing their weight (in kilograms) by the square of their height (in metres) i.e.
BMI =
weight (height ) 2
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Activity 1: Working with the BMI. 1. 2. 3. I am 180 cm tall and weigh 80 kg. What is my BMI? Am I overweight? A healthy BMI range is considered to be between 20 and 25. If my partner is 170 cm tall, what is her healthy weight range? Optional Calculate your own BMI.
Checkpoint As mentioned previously, BMI is used to classify obesity because it approximates an individuals percentage body fat. The question is, how well can such a simple formula approximate a complex quantity like an individuals percentage body fat? Activity 2: Evaluating the BMI model for percentage body fat. To evaluate how well BMI approximates percentage body fat requires the calculation of BMIs for individuals with known percentage body fat, measured using a different, more accurate methodiv. Fortunately such data was the subject of a study by Roger W. Johnson, published in the Journal of Statistics Education and at http://www.amstat.org/publications/jse/v4n1/datasets.johnson.html In this study the percentage body fat of 252 men was measured, along with their height, weight and 10 other body measurements. To see how well the BMI approximates percentage body fat we are going to study a random selection of 30 of these men, whose data appears below.
Age
22 23 32 28 41 46 48 62 72 46 48 42 47 49 40 23 26 27 33 35 35 35 37 41 42 42 50 51 54 68
Weight (kg)
69.9 89.9 81.9 68.6 112.2 68.3 98.4 98.0 71.6 80.3 80.4 80.5 89.4 96.5 80.2 85.3 69.1 90.8 88.9 98.4 103.5 80.4 109.4 105.6 110.8 101.9 78.4 67.7 69.5 70.5
Height (m)
1.68 1.87 1.77 1.72 1.87 1.73 1.78 1.86 1.71 1.78 1.85 1.75 1.86 1.91 1.80 1.97 1.75 1.87 1.85 1.87 1.77 1.80 1.82 1.89 1.93 1.90 1.85 1.77 1.79 1.76
BMI
% Body Fat
25.0 11.9 20.7 14.1 31.7 28.0 31.0 25.8 15.0 20.4 20.0 26.8 23.4 20.3 24.6 10.6 9.7 20.8 14.7 19.1 34.5 20.4 29.4 23.3 37.3 24.4 19.4 13.7 12.6 15.3
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Activity 2 (continued): Evaluating the BMI model for percentage body fat. A. Enter these weights and heights into a CASIO ClassPad 300. B. Calculate the BMI of these men in the following way,
I mode in
Tap on the heading row of List 3 and name it as BMI. Tap on the Cal row of this column and enter the BMI formula as weight height^2 You may wish to copy these BMI values into the previous table.
C. Enter the percentage body fat data into List 4. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6 Examine the BMI and % body fat data. Describe what you notice. If there were a perfect correspondence between BMI and percentage body fat, what would a scatter plot of BMI against percentage body fat look like? What do you think the scatter plot of our data will look like? Draw a scatter plot of our data. Hence comment on the relationship between BMI and percentage body fat for the data in our sample. Discuss how well BMI predicts percentage body fat across the range of BMIs observed in the data set.
Checkpoint Activity 3: Doing better than percentage body fat = BMI Given the limited validity of the algebraic model % body fat = BMI, 1. 2. Develop a better algebraic model for percentage body fat in terms of BMI. Comment on the degree to which this new model can be used to predict an individuals body fat based on their BMI.
Checkpoint These consequences include heart disease, type 2 diabetes and cancer. World Health Organisation; Global Strategy on Diet, Physical Activity and Health. iii All Australian data was obtained from the Australian Governments Australian Institute of Health and Welfare iv Percentage body fat is most accurately determined using an underwater weighing method. It can also be calculated based on skin fold measurements.
ii i
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Checkpoints
Activity 1: Working with the BMI. Answers. 1. My BMI can be calculated to be 24.7, meaning that I am not overweight just.
2. Someone 1.7 metres tall with a BMI of 20 to 25 would weigh in between 57.8 kg and 72.25 kg.
Activity 2: Evaluating the BMI model for percentage body fat. Part A Data Entry Firstly naming list1 and list2 and then entering the weight and height data gives, Part B Calculating the BMI Tap in the heading row of list3 and name it as BMI. Tap in the Cal row of list3 and enter the BMI formula as weight/height^2.
Answers. 1. Comparing the values of BMI and p_b_f (% body fat) we can see that BMI is similar to percentage body fat for some individuals but not for others. 2. If there was a perfect correspondence between BMI and percentage body fat then all the points in the scatter plot would fall on the line y=x as this represents percentage body fat = BMI. 3. For our data some points would fall on this line but many would not. It is hard to tell exactly how the points would vary for this line.
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Checkpoints
4.
5. Due to the generally linear shape of the scatter plot there seems to be some degree of linear correlation between percentage body fat and BMI. Whether or not this linear correlation represents equality, i.e. the linear relationship percentage body fat = BMI, is unclear from the graph above. One very useful way to investigate this question further is to draw the line y=x on the scatter plot. This can be done by tapping ! and entering the function y=x and then tapping y The fact that the line y=x does not represent the shape apparent in the scatter plot suggests that the relationship of equality does not exist between BMI and percentage body fat. 6. The number of points beneath the line y=x in the lower BMI region (left hand side of the graph) shows that, for individuals with a low BMI, BMI frequently over predicts percentage body fat. The closer proximity of points to the line y=x for larger BMI values suggests that, for individuals with larger BMIs, their BMIs are a better estimate of percentage body fat. Activity 3: Doing better than percentage body fat = BMI Answers 1. Choosing a linear algebraic model, because of the generally linear shape of our scatter plot, the co-efficients of this model can be found by tapping Calc, Linear Reg , and setting up this calculation gives us,
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Checkpoints
This linear relationship, percentage body fat = 1.65 BMI 21.56, fits the data that we have used much better than the idea that percentage body fat = BMI. This can be confirmed by generating a series of values and and comparing these to percentage body fat.
The values given by the rule 1.65 BMI 21.56 seems to correlate to percentage body better that BMI. However, there is still a significant degree of variation in percentage body fat that cannot be attributed to the new rule. This variation could be caused by factors like fitness level and body type, factors that are not incorporated into the BMI calculation but obviously have a bearing on percentage body fat. It should be noted that this variation is less for individuals with higher percentage body fat, making judgments using BMI-based rules more appropriate in cases of excess weight and obesity. At best, however, a BMI-based calculation can only provide a warning sign of weight problems. A more detailed analysis of an individuals percentage body fat, and of the potential health implications, should then be undertaken by a health care professional.
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Algebraic Models

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Working with

Written by Alastair Lupton and Anthony Harradine

Working with Algebraic Models.

Australias population in the future.

Developing an Algebraic Model:

Managing a gas field.

Verifying an Algebraic Model:

10th Planet Fact or Fiction?

Refining an Algebraic Model:

Obesity a global epidemic.

Australias population in the future.

Sydney Morning Herald

Danna Vale defends Muslim comments

Copyright 2007, Harradine and Lupton

Australias population in the future.

where x represents time, in years since 1990.

Working with this model. A. Enter the

W mode of a CASIO ClassPad 300.

Copyright 2007, Harradine and Lupton

Australias population in the future.

M = 8 x + 30 where x represents time, in years since 1990.

Copyright 2007, Harradine and Lupton

Australias population in the future.

Copyright 2007, Harradine and Lupton

Australias population in the future.

Part D Drawing a graph

Copyright 2007, Harradine and Lupton

Australias population in the future.

To get to x=10 you just need to type 10 while in Trace

Copyright 2007 Harradine and Lupton

Australias population in the future.

Copyright 2007 Harradine and Lupton

Australias population in the future.

Copyright 2007 Harradine and Lupton

Australias population in the future.

T = 100 + 45 (0.92) x + 8 x + 30 where x represents time, in years since 1990.

Copyright 2007 Harradine and Lupton

Managing a gas field.

Relative time Rate of Gas Flow t (months) f (MMscf/d)

Copyright 2007, Harradine and Lupton

Managing a gas field.

I mode in a CASIO ClassPad 300 in the following

w after each value.

Copyright 2007, Harradine and Lupton

Managing a gas field.

Relative time t (months)

Rate of Gas Flow f (MMscf/d)

Copyright 2007, Harradine and Lupton

Managing a gas field.

Copyright 2007, Harradine and Lupton

Managing a gas field.

Copyright 2007, Harradine and Lupton

Managing a gas field.

Activity 2: Developing a model for the gas flow data.

Copyright 2007, Harradine and Lupton

Managing a gas field.

2. With our chosen model stored, we can work with it in

W, using the full range of graphical tools that are

I mode, are unchanged by

Copyright 2007, Harradine and Lupton

Managing a gas field.

Copyright 2007, Harradine and Lupton

Managing a gas field.