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This is the submitted version of the following article:

Frontier Equity Markets


A Primer on the Next Generation of Emerging Markets

Which was published in final format in the Winter, 2010 Edition of:

The Journal of Wealth Management


Winter 2010, Vol. 13, No. 3: pp. 5058DOI: 10.3905/jwm.2010.13.3.050 http://www.iijournals.com/doi/abs/10.3905/jwm.2010.13.3.050

Clifford Quisenberry Jr., CFA Chief Investment Officer in Tacoma, Washington Benjamin Griffith, CFA Analyst in New York, New York Caravan Capital Management LLC
www.caravancap.com Email: cliffq@caravancap.com Tel: (253) 230 - 9011
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Over the last several years, the continued integration of world economies and capital markets has caused a convergence in the behavior of equities around the world. This process has led many of the larger emerging markets to behave increasingly like developed markets in terms of valuations and their correlations to other markets. Global investors looking to further enhance diversification and capture the potential of rapidly developing economies with compelling valuations have begun to look for the next generation of emerging markets. A loosely defined class of countries has emerged under the popular buzzword, frontier markets. In this paper we provide an introduction to these markets; examining how they are defined and the characteristics that differentiate them from the standard emerging markets.

Defining the Frontiers


Unlike the emerging markets, defining which countries constitute the frontier markets can be challenging. While the two major index providers for the emerging markets, Standard and Poors and MSCI, provide fairly objective criteria for defining the emerging markets, their approach to the frontier markets seems more subjective. For example, in their country and company inclusion criteria for the emerging market indices, MSCI and Standard & Poors set minimum market capitalization and volume levels after adjusting for each securities free float and foreign ownership restrictions. However, while S&P looks at these factors for determining country inclusion in their S&P Frontier BMI Index, they do not apply set minimums or maximums and instead state that consideration of frontiers is based upon, a markets turnover, number of listings, and whether it has attracted a minimum amount of foreign investor interest [as well as]a markets development prospectsi In addition to the factors of size and liquidity, MSCI also looks at the stability of political and economic conditions, including only markets in their frontier index that do not belong to countries undergoing a period of extreme economic and political instability.ii By the fact that they were excluded from the emerging market indices, this means frontiers typically have relatively low market capitalizations and trading volumes, have local financial regulations that discourage investment by foreigners, or simply do not have sufficient data available to warrant inclusion in an emerging market index.iii Not surprisingly, frontiers are typically poor as defined by GDP per capita. Many frontier countries have also endured periods of political or economic instability as well as political mismanagement which historically may have prevented them from obtaining emerging market status. Yet this is not always the case, and thus, using these criteria to discriminate among frontier markets can be misleading. By the IMFs 2008 rankings, one of the richest countries in the world is a frontier, Qatar, with over $91,000 in USD GDP per capita.iv Some frontier countries score relatively well in terms of combating corruption or maintaining political

stability, especially Estonia, Slovenia, and Uruguay.v because they are small.

Many frontiers are frontiers simply

A more straightforward method is to define a frontier market country as any country which has publicly traded companies on an exchange but is not a member of both the MSCI and S&P emerging indices and not a member of any developed market index. Using this methodology, there are 85 frontier countries in the world (see Exhibit 1). These 85 countries translate into 78 unique stock markets, which include two regional stock exchanges. Of these markets, currently 36 are members of the S&P Frontier BMI Index or the MSCI Frontier Markets Index (shown in bold). We define the remaining 42 markets that are not members of the frontier indices as exotic frontiers and for purposes of this paper have constructed a market capitalization weighted index of 20 of these markets excluded from the frontier indices.vi
Exhibit 1
Europe Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Bosnia Bulgaria Croatia Estonia Georgia Latvia Lithuania Macedonia Malta Moldova Montenegro Republika Srpske Romania Serbia Slovakia Slovenia Ukraine Latin America Argentina Barbados Bolivia Colombia Costa Rica Dominica Ecuador El Salvador Grenada Guyana Jamaica Panama St. Kitts and Nevis St. Lucia Trinidad and Tobago Uruguay Venezuela Sub-Saharan Africa Benin Botswana Burkina Faso Cameroon Cape Verde Cote d'Ivoire Ghana Kenya Malawi Mauritius Mozambique Namibia Niger Nigeria Senegal Swaziland Tanzania Togo Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe MENA Bahrain Iran* Iraq Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Libya Oman Palestine Qatar Saudi Arabia Sudan* Syria Tunisia UAE Asia Bangladesh Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Rep. Maldives Mongolia Nepal Pakistan P. New Guinea Fiji Sri Lanka Uzbekistan Vietnam

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Geographic and Sector Exposures


One of the obvious characteristics of the universe of frontier markets is its geographic diversity, spanning nearly every region found for the standard emerging markets but with some prominent additions. The Persian Gulf countries, the Balkans, the Baltics, Central America, Central Asia, East and West Africa, and the Caribbean are eight regions represented by frontier markets not found in standard emerging markets.
Exhibit 2 Index Weights by Sub-Region
Sub-Region Southern Africa East Africa North Africa West Africa South Asia Southeast Asia East Asia Central Asia Baltics Balkans Central & Eastern Europe Southeastern Europe Central America South America Caribbean North America Persian Gulf The Levant
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Major Region Africa Africa Africa Africa Asia Asia Asia Asia Europe Europe Europe Europe Latin America Latin America Latin America Latin America Middle East Middle East

S&P Frontier BMI 2.1% 1.6% 0.7% 9.3% 5.1% 2.4% 0.0% 6.3% 0.6% 2.0% 3.4% 1.1% 2.6% 18.8% 1.1% 0.0% 36.0% 7.3%

S&P/IFCI 6.7% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 8.5% 5.7% 43.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 1.6% 0.0% 18.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 2.7%

When inspecting the MSCI and S&P Frontier indices, it is apparent that most of their weight is concentrated in the Middle Eastern markets (see Exhibit 2). This is a result of Kuwait and the UAE having quite large equity markets relative to the frontiers found in other regions. Indeed, these markets have been up for review to be included in the standard emerging market indices.ix But frontiers have little exposure to Asia when compared to the S&P/IFCI Emerging Markets index which is heavily concentrated in East Asia due to the large market capitalizations of China, Korea, and Taiwan. There are sub-regions in which the frontier indices have a significant weight of more than 4%, and in which the emerging market indices have no weight, most notably in the Persian Gulf, West Africa, and Central Asia.
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At the sector level, frontiers also appear somewhat different than their larger counterparts. Some of these differences are a result of their early stage of economic and financial market development. For example, financial stocks comprise the vast majority of the frontier market universe. While most of the equities in this category are commercial banks, other common financial companies in the frontier markets include insurance companies, and retail or microcredit banks. All together, financials stocks have historically comprised more than 60% of the S&P Frontier BMI Index and more than 50% in the MSCI Frontier Index.x Exhibit 3 illustrates the differing sector exposures of the MSCI Frontier Index and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index as of 12/31/2009.
Exhibit 3 MSCI Frontier Index 53.8% 17.0% 8.6% 7.2% 4.4% 4.3% 2.0% 1.3% 1.1% 0.4% MSCI Emerging Index 24.3% 8.6% 14.8% 6.7% 14.9% 5.6% 2.2% 3.7% 5.8% 13.5% Difference 29.6% 8.3% -6.2% 0.5% -10.5% -1.3% -0.2% -2.4% -4.7% -13.1%

Financials Telecommunication Services Energy Industrials Materials Consumer Staples Health Care Utilities Consumer Discretionary Information Technology
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Banks are often the first companies to list in nascent equity markets, as they tend to have the greatest understanding and experience working in the capital markets and also require a relatively large amount of capital in order to achieve the scale needed to reach profitability and minimize risks.xii In addition, the Gulf markets are heavily weighted in financials and this region dominates the MSCI Frontier Index. Another product of the fact that most frontiers are at the early stages of their economic development is their relatively low weight in the sectors of health care and information technology. Many frontier economies, most notably in the Persian Gulf, Africa, and Latin America, are endowed with abundant natural resources, which often make up a large percentage of GDP and may provide the bulk of foreign currency receipts.xiii However, the companies that directly own or control these national resources are often considered strategic national assets and remain state owned, and thus are understated in terms of their index weight. Despite this, commodity prices tend to drive corporate earnings indirectly through overall GDP growth, as well as the relative strength of many frontier currencies. As a result, the returns of the frontier market indices are heavily correlated with crude oil and copper spot price returns. In a regression the individual
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correlation coefficients between the annualized returns of the MSCI Frontier Index and the annualized spot price returns of West Texas Instrument Crude Oil and London Metals Exchange Copper were 0.51 and 0.32 respectively for the 10 years ending 11/30/2009. While investing in the frontier markets can provide an indirect hedge against inflation for investors based in the developed world, commodity price fluctuations are also a cause of return volatility.

Liquidity on the Frontier


Chief among the factors affecting investment in the frontier equity markets is the relative lack of liquidity. The average monthly total dollar volume for the frontier markets was substantially lower than the standard emerging markets in a study over the most recent 6 month period (see Exhibit 4).xiv While over $560 billion of securities traded per month for the emerging markets, only $33.7 billion traded for the frontier markets. However, even this large disparity is deceiving as most of that volume came from the much more liquid Gulf countries. When these countries are removed from the frontiers, total monthly volume decreases substantially to $7.4 billion. More dramatically, the monthly volume of all exotic frontier markets was a mere $520 million per month over this period.
Exhibit 4
$600 Monthly Average Value Traded (USD Billions) $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $S&P Emerging BMI Plus
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$560.3

$33.7 Standard Frontiers

$7.4 Standard Frontiers ex GCC

$0.5 Exotic Frontiers

The relative lack of liquidity in the frontier markets in turn creates higher trading costs because of higher market impact when transacting a trade. In addition, the lack of large trade flows often coincides with a lack of a large number of competing brokers which can lead to higher frontier market commission rates. Using data based upon a survey of institutional trades from Elkins McSherry over 12 months ending June 2009, the commission for an equal weighted
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basket of 21 standard emerging markets was 25 basis points. xvi Based upon a survey of frontier broker commission rates, the commission for an equal weighted basket of 51 frontier markets was nearly five times higher at 123 basis points. The distinction of the highest commission in our survey belonged to Mongolia, costing over 450 basis points per trade. Market impact as defined by Elkins McSherry using their VWAP method was about 16 basis points for the same basket of standard emerging markets.xvii Assessing market impact for frontier markets is much more difficult as this type of analysis is almost entirely absent for frontier markets. In addition, many exotic frontier markets lack natural trade flow on a daily or even weekly basis, meaning transactions in these markets are virtually on a negotiated basis. Based upon informal surveys of frontier traders and experience of the author, market impact for a basket of frontier markets can range from 100 to 300 basis points.

Economic Growth and Stock Market Returns


Partially as a product of their underdevelopment, frontier countries have experienced rapid economic growth, especially in recent years. Countries defined as being frontier equity markets generally fall into two economic categories: sources of raw materials for export to the rich world, and low cost suppliers of labor. Both of these economic models have been broadly successful throughout the recent decades of globalization, and frontier countries have experienced more rapid economic growth than emerging or developed countries. The cheap transfer of new technologies from the rich world to the developing world is also a key factor in the frontiers achievement of rapid economic growth. This thesis is supported by the historical and forecasted real GDP growth rates of the frontiers as compared to emerging and developed countries (see Exhibit 5).
Exhibit 5

8.0% 6.0%

Average Annual GDP Growth by Category

4.0%
2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0%

2010e

2011e

2012e

2013e

2014e

Frontier

Emerging

Developed

2015e
xviii

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Given their relative lack of liquidity and size, as well as their unique political and economic risks, frontier equity markets should be expected to have relatively high risk premiums and command higher expected market returns, all other things being equal. These higher expected returns are generally reflected in terms of lower valuations, such as lower price to earnings ratios for frontier markets as compared to the emerging markets. Exhibit 6 illustrates the simple average of trailing P/E ratios for the country members of the MSCI Frontier Index vs. the country members of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index as of 4/30/2010.
Exhibit 6
30.0 25.0

Country P/E of Frontier vs. Emerging Markets


Simple Avg. of Country-Level P/Es MSCI Frontier Index: 11.8x MSCI Emerging Markets Index: 14.8x

Trailing Country index P/E

20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0


Bahrain Bulgaria Croatia Estonia Kazakhstan Kenya Kuwait Lebanon Mauritius Nigeria Oman Qatar Romania Slovenia Sri Lanka Tunisia UAE Ukraine Vietnam Colombia Jordan Pakistan Argentina Brazil Russia India China Chile Czech Republic Egypt Hungary Indonesia Korea Malaysia Mexico Morocco Peru Philippines Poland South Africa Taiwan Thailand Turkey

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Yet these lower valuations may not be wholly justified by this perception of risk, based on one important observation; many frontier equity markets are still dominated by local market participants who rationally demand higher returns to compensate for the country specific risk they experience. However, from the perspective of global investors, much of this country specific risk should be effectively reduced through diversification within a global portfolio. Modern portfolio theory would suggest that frontier markets have expected returns that are set unduly high for the risk they actually endure. Actual historical returns of frontier markets as compared to emerging markets have been similar. Over the 10 years ending 4/30/2010, the MSCI Frontier Index returned 12.5% per year, versus the MSCI Emerging Markets performance of 12.7%, and the S&P 500 return over
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the same period of -0.2%. An index of 20 of the more exotic frontier markets excluded from the MSCI and S&P Frontier Indices returned an average of 10.3% per year in the seven years since its inception ending 4/30/2010, versus the same 10.3% per year for the MSCI Frontier Index over the same period.xx

Correlations to Each Other and to the Developed Markets


One attractive characteristic of the frontiers is their low cross correlations (the average of all the pair wise correlations of the returns of the frontier markets to each other). Given the observation that frontier markets are on average more influenced by country specific risk, we would expect frontier markets to exhibit lower cross correlations. In general, what happens in Malawi has virtually no impact on what happens in Armenia or Mongolia or Costa Rica. However, the same cannot be said for the impact of an emerging market on other emerging or developed markets. Certainly, what happens in China affects Korea, Brazil, and the United States. In this regard, the frontiers lack of integration with the world financial system is a blessing to long-run minded professional investors. The kinds of market linkages witnessed in South-East Asia during the Asian crisis of the late 90s have yet to materialize to the same degree in the frontier equity markets. In the five years ending 4/30/2010, the emerging markets averaged a cross correlation of 0.64, while the standard frontiers averaged 0.28, and the exotic frontiers averaged a mere 0.07 (See Exhibit 7).xxi
Exhibit 7

Correlation Coefficients
Exotic Frontiers MSCI Frontiers S&P IFCI Emerging
xxii

5 Years Cross Correlation 0.07 0.28 0.64

Correl to S&P 500 0.34 0.64 0.76

Correl to S&P Euro 350 0.09 0.73 0.89

10 Years Cross Correlation

Correl to S&P 500

Correl to S&P Euro 350

0.22 0.50

0.52 0.78

0.63 0.83

These low correlations across markets help to dramatically reduce portfolio level volatility in a diversified index or portfolio of frontier markets. For many of the same reasons that they exhibit low cross correlations, frontier equity markets also exhibit low correlations to the major world markets, including the US and European markets. Frontier markets exhibit significantly lower correlations to the developed markets than do the emerging markets because their economies and financial systems are less
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integrated and therefore relatively less dependent on capital and demand from the rich countries. This provides an added benefit of diversification to the total portfolio of US, European, and other investors based in the developed world. Exhibit 8 highlights the low correlation of the frontiers versus the S&P 500 Index relative to other market categories, using running 48 month periods, ending 4/30/2010.xxiii
Exhibit 8
2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50

Correlation to the S&P 500


Running 48 Month Periods January 1996 to April 2010

Exotic Frontiers = 0.38 MSCI Frontiers = 0.69 S&P IFCI Emerging = 0.83 S&P Dev. BMI ex US = 0.92

Dec-02

Dec-99

Dec-00

Dec-01

Dec-03

Dec-04

Dec-05

Dec-06

Dec-07

Jun-08

Jun-00

Jun-01

Jun-02

Jun-03

Jun-04

Jun-05

Jun-06

Jun-07

Dec-08

Jun-09

Another aspect of correlations across market classes that stands out in Exhibit 8 is the increase in correlations caused by the global financial crisis beginning in October of 2008. This trend is consistent with past global market crises, and is clearly detrimental to the cause of risk reduction through international diversification. However, this phenomenon occurred across almost all asset class categories, and the frontiers remained significantly less correlated to the US market than other market categories, especially the exotic frontiers, even in the depths of the crisis.

Country Volatility and Index Volatility


Individually, frontier equity markets exhibit volatility that on average is similar to the standard emerging markets. Looking at the annualized standard deviation of country returns for the 10 years ending 4/30/2010, the average frontier countrys volatility stood at 30.5% vs. 31.5% for the average emerging market country, and 16.2% for the S&P 500. The more exotic frontier markets exhibited lower volatility, as illustrated in Exhibit 9. Given the similar volatility at the country level, the low correlations between the frontier markets theoretically should help to reduce the volatility of a portfolio or index of
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frontier countries because of the benefit of diversification. This difference between average country volatility and the lower volatility of the index of these same countries is readily seen in Exhibit 9. This effect is particularly noticeable when looking at the most exotic frontier markets, due to the exotic markets having the lowest cross correlations.
Exhibit 9

Annualized Volatility

Exotic Frontiers MSCI Frontier Index S&P IFCI Emerging S&P 500 Index
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5 Year Average Country 27.3% 30.3% 30.9%

Index 10.0% 25.3% 27.5% 17.0%

10 Year Average Country 30.5% 31.5%

Index 19.1% 24.7% 16.2%

While the trend has been for cross correlations and volatility to rise in recent years, peaking during the crisis of 2008, the frontier markets still have relatively lower volatility than the emerging markets. It is worth noting that the index of 20 exotic frontier markets excluded from the frontier indices had lower volatility than the S&P 500 over the last 5 years.

Conclusion
As a group, the frontier equity markets have displayed similar long-run returns and economic growth prospects with slightly lower volatility than the emerging markets over the last 10 years. In addition, their low cross correlations mean broad and diversified portfolios of frontier markets can produce lower volatility than their larger emerging market counterparts. Finally, frontier markets generally offer lower correlations to the developed markets. This combination of high expected returns and lower volatility mean frontier markets should be viewed as suitable additions to global portfolios. This paper is intended to be an introduction to the frontier equity markets, and many areas are left open for further discussion. For example, the relationship between market size, liquidity and market volatility and the correlation to other markets warrants additional study. To the extent that a frontier markets low volatility and correlation is s imply a product of their small size and lack of liquidity would limit the ability of portfolio managers to achieve the full benefits of diversification in practice. However, the typical frontier countrys lack of financial integration with the rest of the world and the relative importance of country specific factors in driving stock market returns suggest that frontier markets should fundamentally have lower correlations than standard emerging markets.

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In many ways, the frontier emerging equity markets look similar to the way the emerging markets did 20 years ago. Rapid economic growth and elevated risk premiums provide opportunities for attractive long-run returns, and diversifiable country risks allow for relatively low portfolio level volatility in a balanced portfolio. Furthermore, the frontiers low correlations to the developed markets provide significant diversification benefits to international portfolio investors.

S&P Frontier BMI Factsheet. Standard & Poors. The McGraw-Hill Companies. (2009): 1. Web. http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SP_Frontier_BMI_Factsheet.pdf . ii MSCI Barra Global Investable Index Methodology. MSCI Barra. (2010): 47. Web. http://www.mscibarra.com/eqb/methodology/meth_docs/MSCI_Jan10_GIMIMethod.pdf. iii S&P Frontier BMI Factsheet. Standard & Poors. The McGraw-Hill Companies. (2009): 1. Web. http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SP_Frontier_BMI_Factsheet.pdf . iv IMF World Economic Outlook. IMF. Database: April, 2010. Web. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/01/weodata/index.aspx v Corruption Perception Index. Transparency International. 2009. Web. http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi/2008 vi Our index of 20 exotic frontier markets is market capitalization weighted, with a country weight constraint applied of two times 1/n, where n is the number of markets. The markets included were selected due to the regular availability of pricing data needed to construct the index. The countries included in the index as of 4/30/2010 include: Armenia, Barbados, Bosnia Herzegovina (Sarajevo Stock Exchange), The Eastern Caribbean Securities Exchange, El Salvador, Fiji (The South Pacific Stock Exchange), Guyana, Iraq, Malawi, Maldives, Moldova, Mongolia, Nepal, Palestine, Panama (Bolsa de Panama), Papua New Guinea, Tanzania, Uganda, Uruguay, and Uzbekistan. vii Italicized = countries covered by a regional stock exchange, including the BRVM in West Africa and the ECSE in the Caribbean. Bold = members of MSCI and/or S&P Frontier indices * = Markets unavailable to US investors. viii S&P Index weights provided by Standard & Poors. Previous years index weights available at: S&P Frontier BMI Factsheet. Standard & Poors. The McGraw-Hill Companies. (2009): 1. Web. http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SP_Frontier_BMI_Factsheet.pdf . ix th Brandimarte, Walter. MSCI ups Israel to developed mkt; mulls Korea, Taiwan. Reuters. June 15 , 2009. Web. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1524411720090615 x S&P Frontier BMI Factsheet. Standard & Poors. The McGraw-Hill Companies. (2009): 1. Web. http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SP_Frontier_BMI_Factsheet.pdf . xi Bloomberg Terminal Service. MSCI Frontier Market Index and MSCI Emerging Market Index weights. 12/31/2009. xii Quisenberry, Clifford Jr. and Griffith, Benjamin. Banking on the Frontier. Caravan Capital Management, LLC. March, 2009. Contact us to request a copy. xiii Based on data from the EIA and the IMF World Economic Outlook Database for 2008, several frontier markets economies, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, Nigeria, and Venezuela show net export of crude oil / GDP ratios greater than 50%. xiv Monthly Total Volume is calculated as the total of the 12 month average of all dollar value traded ending 12/31/2009 for companies in each category. The Emerging Markets are defined as markets included in both MSCI and S&P Emerging Market Indices. The Standard Frontier Markets are defined as markets included in either the MSCI or the S&P Frontier Index. The Exotic Frontier Markets are defined as all markets excluded from developed, emerging, and frontier indices of both the MSCI and S&P for which data was available. Data for the Emerging Markets and Standard Frontier Markets was gathered from Bloomberg. Data for the Exotic frontier markets was gathered manually from data from local stock exchanges. xv Value traded data for The S&P Emerging Markets BMI was provided by Standard & Poors. The value traded data for the Standard Frontiers and Exotic Frontier Markets were calculated based on the entire universe of countries in each category using data from Bloomberg. xvi Survey of Trading Costs. Elkins McSherry. June, 2009.

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xvii

VWAP is the average trade price weighted by the volume traded over the period. VWAP is often used as a benchmark for assessing execution. Pricing and volume data can be used to assess how the size of an individual trade affects the pricing achieved relative to VWAP. xviii Calculated as the average of the real GDP growth rate of countries within each category using data from the IMF World Economic Outlook database, updated in April of 2010. IMF World Economic Outlook. IMF. Database: April, 2010. Web. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/01/weodata/index.aspx xix P/E data provided for the MSCI Frontier and Emerging country indices by Bloomberg. xx Returns data gathered from MSCI and S&P. Data for the 20 exotic markets was collected manually. xxi Cross correlations calculated using a simple average of each pair of country-level returns for the S&P country indices, as well as a 20 member index of countries excluded from the S&P and MSCI frontier indices to represent the Exotic Frontiers category. xxii Correlations calculated using monthly returns for the time periods specified. Data gathered from MSCI and Standard & Poors. xxiii S&P and MSCI index data provided by Bloomberg Terminal Service. Quisenberry, Clifford Jr. and Griffith, Benjamin. Neglected Frontier Index Report. Caravan Capital Management, LLC. December, 2009. Contact us to request a copy. xxiv Volatility calculated as annualized standard deviation of monthly returns over the period specified. Data gathered from MSCI and Standard & Poors.

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