Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| April 20, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| April 20, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Universal Commodity Exchange, 6th in the country, goes live
Universal Commodity Exchange, the sixth commodity platform, went live on Friday with 100 members on board. The exchange said it has another 200 application for membership under process. Promoted by Commex Technology in joint venture with IDBI Bank, IFFCO, Nabard and REC, the exchange has started trading in 11 contracts across nine commodities gold, silver, crude oil, chana, RSS4 rubber, mustard, soyabean, refined soya oil and turmeric. In order to attract volumes, the exchange will charge a fee of Re 1 for every transaction totalling Rs 1 lakh for the first three months. However, it has fixed a four-slab fee structure based on the turnover. Praveen Pillai, Chief Executive Officer of UCX, said that the exchange will focus on all the segments of commodity initially and work on specialisation after gauging the market response. Being the latest exchange, we may not have the first mover advantage, but we definitely know what we should not do. We have the option to learn from others mistake, he said. (Source: Business Line)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on April 18, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19016 5783 54.03 87.73 1392

1.52 1.66 -0.28 1.21 0.71

2.56 3.38 -0.51 -6.18 -11.01

-2.12 -1.52 0.00 -6.12 -12.59

9.34 9.12 4.45 -14.55 -15.06

.Source: Reuters

Congress Trying to Get Security Through Food Bill

The government plans to place its ambitious food security legislation, which aims to provide grain at subsidised rates to around twothirds of the population, for discussion and possible passage in Parliament at the very start of session next week. Union food minister KV Thomas told ET that the National Food Security (amended) Bill (NSFB) will be listed in the first week of the session itself and was confident of its early clearance. The amended bill provides for rice at 3 per kg, wheat at 2 per kg and coarse cereal at 1 per kg. The government is confident the Bill will be passed, with the support of all political parties. More so after the near unanimous support with which the standing committee cleared the amended version of the Bill, said Thomas. All political parties, especially BJP, have supported the amended provisions of the bill in the standing committee. The only exception was CPM, which has an ideological position in favour of universal PDS. We have also addressed most of the concerns of the state governments and most CMs have been supportive, he added. (Source: Economic Times)

Suggestions by FSLRC not to come in way of FCRA Bill

Recommendations of the Financial Sector Legislative Reforms Commission (FSLRC) to merge all financial market regulators in to one entity will not come in the way of clearing amendments in the Forward Contract Regulations Act amendment (FCRA) Bill. This was stated by the secretary of the ministry of consumer affairs, Pankaj Agrawal. He said that since the Bill was already listed in Parliament prior to the submission of the report, it is now property of the Parliament and cannot be withdrawn simply because somebody has a different recommendation. The FSLRC report suggested merging FMC into a common regulator for the financial market. The FCRA Bill proposes to give independent and statutory status to FMC with more powers. The secretary also said that, Our ministry is making all efforts to see that the bill is introduced in the parliament in second half of budget session and get it cleared. (Source:
Business Standard)

It will be a Normal Monsoon: Pawar

The first official forecast of the June-September monsoon by IMD will be released on April 26. Preliminary indications hint at a normal monsoon this year. Union agriculture minister Sharad Pawar on Thursday said that monsoon will arrive on time. It is a normal monsoon for the country this year, he said. The minister added that the progress of monsoon will be reviewed by May 1. Earlier in the day, IMD officials met the minister to brief him about the monsoon. The official forecast from IMD is expected in a week, but several international agencies as well as private forecasters have already given their prediction. We will be releasing the first monsoon forecast on April 26 at 4 pm, said LS Rathore, director general of meteorology. (Source: Economic Times)

FMC awaits reports on guar futures

Futures trading in guar seed and gum might resume in the medium future, the Forward Markets Commission (FMC), the regulator for the commodity markets, indicated. Guar futures were banned ayear earlier, after a sharp spurt in prices.FMC chairman Ramesh Abhishek said: We had asked three exchanges to give a report on who were cornering guar seeds and gum last year, when prices on the futures market were skyrocketing. NCDEX has already submitted their report, saying 61 per cent of guar stock in the exchanges warehouse was held by farmers. We are waiting for the other two exchanges, after which we will take a final decision on launching futures in guar. An advisory committee set up by the ministry of consumer affairs had already recommended re- launching of guar futures. The FMC chairman also said black pepper futures would resume soon. We have asked NCDEX to clear all issues in this regard, he said. While FMC has not allowed launch of new pepper contracts after the controversy over the commissioner of food safety seizing stocks from NCDEX- accredited warehouses, saying they were coated with mineral oil. On this issue, the traders have gone to court. However, despite this legal dispute, the chairman said, it will not come in the way of launching new pepper contracts with revised specifications. (Source: Business Standard)

UP mills plan to sell sugar may pull down prices

Sugar supplies are set to increase as millers may sell more of their inventory to clear cane arrears, following the Uttar Pradesh Governments action against those defaulting in payment to growers. This may further dampen the prices of sweetener, which have been bearish for quite sometime now on surplus supplies. The UP Government has reportedly started filing cases against some sugar mills that have not cleared the cane dues payable to farmers in the State. Cane arrears in the State are estimated at over Rs 6,000 crore, while the all-India figure stands at Rs 11,000 crore. (Source: Business Line)

Meteorologists watch monsoon engine in Indian Ocean

Meteorologists are anxiously monitoring South-West Indian Ocean to learn how the massive atmospheric engine powering the Indian monsoon is slowly sputtering to life. It all boils down to this: winds blow from an area of high-pressure area to one of lower pressure. For monsoon winds to blow towards India, there has to have a high-pressure area in the seas. This high-pressure develops over the Mascarene Islands, east of Madagascar, off Africa, and sends in winds that turn right from Somali coast along the Equator due to Earths motion towards Kerala coast. While the high-pressure develops in the seas, mainland India heats up in the blistering summer causing air to move up and create a lower pressure. (Source: Business Line)

Sugar mill byproducts to attract more investment

Neglected so far, the allied activities of sugarcane crushing are set to gain a major share of fresh investments due to the immense potential opened by the partial decontrol in sugar sales and 30 per cent increase in ethanol prices. Sugar mills, it is estimated, would be planning around Rs. 4,000 crore of fresh investment to add 79,000 tonnes of fresh cane crushing capacity, for which commercial production is scheduled to commence by the end of 2014. (Source: Business Standard)

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| April 20, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana traded on a mixed note on Thursday and settled 0.63% lower while the Spot traded on a positive note and settled 0.54% higher. Demand from stockists have supported prices while the arrivals pressure of the crop kept prices under check. Chana prices have recovered significantly in the past couple of weeks as stockiest have started building inventories to meet the demand for the entire season. Concerns over the yield in Madhya Pradesh, the largest chana producing state, due to unfavorable weather conditions was also supporting an upside in eh prices. However, higher supplies of the new crop from the major producing states such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra is seen capping sharp gains in the physical markets. Chana Spot prices settled marginally lower by 0.05% on Tuesday.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 3610 3613 Prev day 0.54 -0.63

as on April 18, 2013 % change WoW MoM 2.65 4.19 2.18 5.40 YoY 2.81 1.35

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX May contract

Demand supply scenario

Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall acreage in 2012-13 season. The Centre has hiked the MSP by 14 per cent to Rs 3,200 a quintal for chana and as part of its strategy to encourage farmers to grow more pulses to reduce import dependence. Chana sowing in the current season is 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. Acreage is up in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, MP and AP at 15.7 lakh ha, 12.53 lakh ha, 32.99 lakh ha and 7.33 lakh ha respectively. According to second advance Estimates released on 8 Feb 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 17.58 mn tn, down 3.3% compared to previous year. The target for 2012-13 pulses crop output was set at 18.24 million tonne during the year. However, drought conditions have hampered kharif pulses output, which has been only partially offset by Rabi pulses output, especially chana. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 23% lower at 5.48 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 8.72% higher at 12.09 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. There has been a sharp increase in the chana output estimates on the back of higher acreage and good yield. Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is estimated at 8.57 mn tn for 2012-13. In its first advance estimates chana output was pegged at 7.9 mn tn. However, erratic weather in M.P. may lower the yield. Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source: Agriwatch).
th

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Chana May Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Apr 20, 2013 Resistance 3690-3730

3620-3640

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of February declined to 0.46 lakh metric tonnes compared to 2.31 lakh metric tonnes during the previous month. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall. In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.

Outlook
Chana prices are expected to recover from lower levels and trade higher today on account of demand from stockists. However, increasing arrivals may pressurize prices. Overall output in the current season is comparatively higher and thus no major upside is expected over a medium term.

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| April 20, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar prices in the domestic markets are seen consolidating at lower levels as higher supplies is seen offsetting the summer demand. The spot prices settled 0.45% higher while May Sugar futures settled 0.58% lower on Thursday. The Government has cleared the partial decontrol of sugar. According to this, the government will now have to buy sugar from the mills at open market prices. Also the release mechanism will be done away with, after September 2013. States will decide on the FRP of cane. Indian sugar mills produced 23 million tonnes of the sweetener between Oct. 1 and March 31, about 2 percent less than a year earlier. The Central Government has decided to make available quantity of 104 lakh tons of sugar, as non-levy quota for open market sale, for the 6 months of April, 2013 to September, 2013.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolhapur) Sugar M- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3054

as on April 18, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.45 -0.73 MoM -1.88 YoY 4.98

Rs/qtl

2918

-0.07

-0.75

-2.90

5.12

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeMay'13 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE May '13 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 508.8 399.33

as on April 19, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 1.21 1.58 -2.10 1.01 MoM -3.53 -1.75 YoY -11.73 -17.98

Domestic Production and Exports

India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said last week. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 30.8 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22. 5 mln tn for 2012-13. Exports are not viable as international prices have also declined significantly.

.Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX May contract

Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said that the sugar output in 2013-14 may fall to around 24 mn tn against current years output of 24.5 mn tn. A severe drought in top sugar producing Maharashtra state has been affecting new plantation and is likely to affect on sugar production in the year starting from Oct. 1, 2013.

Global Sugar Updates

Liffe sugar as well as ICE Raw Sugar futures traded on a positive note yesterday and settled 1.21% and 1.58% higher on account of harvest delays which will limit supplies in Brazil, the worlds top producer. Heavy rain in the cane belt of top world sugar producer Brazil has slowed early progress of an expected record cane harvest. Brazil's sugar production will jump to a record level in the 2013/14 season just now starting, with a surge in cane output from an expanded planted area, favorable weather and efforts to renew old and less productive cane plants. Expectations of abundant supplies from the 2013-14 harvest in the other leading producers, such as Thailand, Mexico and the United States have kept prices under pressure. Sugar prices are trading around 2 year lows.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar May NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Apr 20, 2013 Resistance 2960-2980

2900-2925

Outlook
Sugar is expected to trade on a mixed note today and may consolidate at lower levels over the next few days. Supplies will continue to remain high as millers will release stocks to clear cane arrears. This will offset summer season demand and recovery in the international markets.

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| April 20, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: soybean opened higher on Thursday extending gains of
the previous session but declined in the later part of the day and settled 0.55% lower. However, spot remained in the positive on account of lower supplies and settled 1.79% higher. Indian soy meal suppliers are renegotiating deals with Iranian buyers for April and May shipments as demand for Indian soy meal has slowed significantly due to the higher prices, and buyers are seeking alternative South American supplies. Indias soy meal exports in April are likely to fall to 200,000 tonnes, down 36 percent from a year ago, unless buying from Iran improves. Exports of Soybean meal during March, 2013 was 3,20,265 tonnes as compared to 4,61,892 tonnes in March, 2012 lower by 30.66% y-o-y.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 4035 3984 724.7 722.7 Prev day 1.79 -0.49 0.44 0.24

as on April 18, 2013

WoW -2.44 -2.26 -0.16 0.87

MoM 12.62 10.01 5.83 5.29

YoY 24.15 23.90 -3.71 -3.87

Source: Reuters

International Markets
Soybean gained by 1.08% over the week but corrected from higher levels yesterday on account of profit taking and settled 0.16% lower. Prices have gained over yield concerns in Argentina. However, sentiments still remain weak on account of smooth supplies from Brazil coupled with demand fears amid bird flu in China. Surge in soybean imports by China, the biggest buyer, may decline this year as feed consumption drops following a bird-flu outbreak. National Oilseed Processors Association data released earlier this week showed the U.S. soybean crush rose marginally to 137.08 million bushels in March, in line with forecasts for a slight gain from 136.3 million bushels in February. Soy oil stocks edged lower to 2.765 billion lbs, versus 2.79 billion lbs in February. Brazil's government lowered its forecast for the 2012/13 soybean crop from 82.1mn tn to 81.9 mn tn.
International Prices Soybean- CBOTMay'13 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTMay'13 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1428 49.16 Prev day -0.16 -1.01 WoW 1.08 -0.14

as on April 19, 2013 MoM 1.53 -0.65 YoY 0.88 -10.89

Source: Reuters

Crude Palm Oil

as on April 19, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -0.44 0.30 -0.95 0.15

Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Apr '13 Contract CPO-MCX- Apr '13 Futures

Last 2283 462.4

MoM -5.89 2.80

YoY -34.68 -24.58

MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg

Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil as well as MCX CPO gained 0.65% and
0.3% on Thursday on account of positive domestic oilseed complex. Indian government increased the base import price on crude soybean oil by US $1 per tons to US $1094. Besides, base import price on crude palm oil sets at US $ 827 and reduced base import price on palmolein crude as well as refined to US $ 864 per tons and US $867 per tons. Imports of all vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, fell 7.5 per cent to 896,714 tn in March, pulled down by the drop in palm oil imports. Palm oil imports dropped 12% to 708,262 tn in March. Malaysia, the world's No.2 palm oil producer, will set its crude palm oil export tax for May at 4.5 percent, unchanged from April. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products from April 1 to 15 inched down 4% to 648,275 tonnes from 675,210 tonnes shipped during March 1 to 15.

Source: Reuters

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Apr'13 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 3548 3492 Prev day 1.37 -0.11 WoW -0.44 -1.38

as on April 18, 2013 MoM 2.97 2.08

Source: Reuters

YoY -7.81 -8.25

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX May contract

Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard May Futures corrected from higher

levels and settled 0.45% lower on Thursday on account of higher arrivals. Reports of unseasonal rains in the north have supported prices at lower levels. Sowing of Mustard seed is up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Outlook
Soybean prices may trade sideways with a negative bias today as weak meal export demand coupled with bird flu in China and supplies from South American region may pressurize prices. However, poor supplies in the domestic markets may support prices at lower levels. Soy oil and CPO may trade sideways with a positive bias as higher soybean prices may support prices while weak exports data coupled with comfortable stock levels may cap sharp gains.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil May NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX May Futures RM Seed NCDEX May Futures CPO MCX Apr Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for Apr 20, 2013 Support 699-704 3740-3800 3470-3500 458-460 Resistance 714-720 3950-4010 3560-3600 464-467

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| April 20, 2013

Agricultural Commodities h
Black Pepper
Pepper Futures traded on a positive note for the second consecutive day on Thursday on account of short lower supplies as well as good demand for the Kerala crop. Interstate traders, especially from Tamil Nadu are actively buying the Kerala crop. However, higher supplies of the Karnataka crop coupled with weak exports demand have pressurized prices at higher levels. Karnataka crop is trading at lower levels due inferior quality. Exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets is weak due to price parity. Food Safety and Standards Authority of India sealed the entire quantity of pepper stored in six warehouses in Kerala of about 8,000 tonnes. The Spot as well as the May Futures settled 0.02% and 1.01% higher on Thursday. According to a circular issued by NCDEX on 09/02/2013, launch of June 2013 expiry contract in Pepper which is scheduled on February 11, 2013, has been postponed till further notice. The revised launch date will be announced in due course. Spices Board has announced plans to import high yielding Madagascar variety that was behind the record productivity in Vietnam. It could raise productivity of Indian pepper from 2,000 kg/ha to 7,000 kg/ha. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $6,850/tn (C&F, New York). Vietnams Asta is quoted at $6,925-6,975/tn, Indonesia GM-1 is quoted at $6,900/tn and Brazil Asta is quoted at $6,600/tn.

Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 36054 36370 % Change Prev day 0.02 0.79

as on April 18, 2013 WoW -0.99 1.10 MoM -2.18 -2.07 YoY -5.24 -3.05

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Black Pepper

NCDEX May contract

Exports and Imports

Indias Apr-Jan 2012-13 pepper exports were reported at 11,550 tn, down 48% (Source: Factiva) while imports reported at 15,000 tonnes making India a net importer. (Source: Agriwatch) According to the latest IPC reports, Vietnam exported around 39,000 st tonnes of pepper in the 1 quarter of 2013. Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 9% in 2012 period to 62,458 tn as compared to 68,489 tn in 2011. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. Brazil exported 25,900 tn pepper during Jan-Nov 2012, around 20% lower compared with 32,650 tn in the same period last year. Exports from Malaysia 8,300 tn pepper during Jan-Oct 2012, lower by 30% last year while exports in October stood at 1,077 mt in.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX May Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for Apr 20, 2013 Support 35000-35300 Resistance 35800-36000

Production and Arrivals

The arrivals in the spot market were reported at 78 tonnes while off takes were reported at 75 tonnes on Thursday. As per IPC, Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn, up compared with 3.18 lk tn in 2011. Production for 2013 is projected at 316832 tn. Indonesian pepper output is expected to rise by 24% and in Vietnam by 10%. According to estimates, pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.05 lakh tonne in 2012 as compared to 1.1 lakh tonne in 2011. Brazil is also expected to produce 22,000 tn this year. Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) Pepper production in 2012-13 is expected around 60,000-63,000 tonnes. Harvesting of pepper in some regions in Kerala is already complete.

Outlook
Pepper Futures is expected to trade on a mixed note with a positive bias today. Good interstate demand for the Kerala pepper coupled with low supplies may support the prices. Lack of stocks for delivery due to lock up of pepper in the NCDEX accredited warehouses may also support prices. However, higher arrivals of the Karnataka crop coupled with weak overseas demand may pressurize prices.

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| April 20, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera May futures traded on a positive note on Thursday on account of good overseas demand and settled 1.18% higher. However, the spot settled 0.2% lower on account of higher arrivals. Higher exports data coupled with fresh export enquiries as well as a pickup in the domestic demand had supported an upside in the prices earlier this month. Arrivals of the new crop are averaging around 35,000 bags/ day. New crop from Rajasthan has also hit the markets. Higher sowing as well as conducive weather in Gujarat, the main jeera growing region has increased output expectations. According to Gujarat State Agri Dept. sowing in Gujarat is reported at 3.352 lakh ha in 2013 compared with 3.719 lakh ha last year. According to the Rajasthan State Budget 201314, it has exempted jeera from VAT. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,400 tn (FOB Mumbai) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 8-9 lakh bags.

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera Spot- NCDEX (Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 13500 13225 Prev day -0.20 1.15

as on April 18, 2013 % Change WoW -1.66 -3.63 MoM 0.62 -0.32 YoY 8.05 11.98

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Jeera

NCDEX May contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 25,000 lakh bags on Thursday. Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 38-40 lakh bags (55 kgs each), same as last year. Exports of Jeera between Apr 2012- Jan 2013 stood at 64,400 tn, an increase of up 86%. (Source: Factiva)
Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day -0.19 -0.86

as on April 18, 2013 % Change

Outlook
Jeera Futures may trade on a mixed note today. Higher arrivals of the new crop may pressurize prices. However, good overseas as well as domestic demand may support prices a lower levels. Overall trend remain positive for the Jeera prices as they are likely to stay firm as Syria & Turkey have stopped shipments.
Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Apr '13 Futures

Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Last 6779 6704

WoW 3.47 -1.47

MoM 6.10 1.70

YoY 106.64 94.88

Turmeric
After declining sharply over the last two sessions, Turmeric May Futures settled marginally higher on Thursday on account of short coverings and settled 0.27% higher. Long liquidation as well as higher arrivals have pressurized prices over the last two days. Good domestic as well as overseas demand coupled with lower output supported prices earlier this month. Unseasonal rains in Andhra Pradesh have damaged about 9240 tonnes of turmeric.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX May contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode stood at 8,000 bags while Nizamabad remained closed on Thursday. Expectations are that production may be lower by 40-50%. There are reports of some crop damage in Erode region. Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 45 lakh bags. Production in Nizamabad is expected around 12 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 10.62 lakh tn. It is estimated that next years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011. Outlook Turmeric is expected to trade with a negative bias today. Weak exports data coupled with higher supplies of the fresh crop and huge carryover stocks may pressurize prices at higher levels. However, Fresh export demand coupled with demand from stockists may support prices at lower levels and prevent sharp downside. Crop damage and lower output concerns may also help to push up the prices.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX May Futures Turmeric NCDEX May Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Valid for Apr 20, 2013

Support 12960-13150 6560-6680 Resistance 13460-13580 6900-6990

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| April 20, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas as well as MCX Cotton settled 1.81% and 0.5% lower on Thursday. Mills are avoiding buying as they expected CCI to offload stocks. Weak global market sentiments have also added downside pressure. However, lower supplies in the domestic markets prevented a sharp decline in the prices. Lower availability coupled with expectations of export demand from China in the coming days have also supported the prices at lower levels. The state-run Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has said that it would offload stocks in the open market to augment supplies. Cotton Corp of India has also sought permission to export 1 mn bales. Lower supplies in the domestic markets and rising cotton prices have caused concerns for textile industry, which is demanding government to direct CCI and NAFED to offload the cotton stock to domestic mills. India's imports of cotton this year could reach 1.5 mn bales, missing earlier estimates of more than 2 mn as the govt may to start selling its stockpiles. Cotton supplies since the beginning of the year in October 2012 until February 10, 2013 were down at 183.4 lakh bales, down from 189.27 lakh bales a year earlier.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 866.5 17960

as on April 18, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW MoM -1.81 -6.78 -10.62 -0.50 -5.32 -5.32 YoY -11.31 7.03

NCDEX Kapas Apr Futures MCX Cotton Mar Futures

Source: Reuters

International Prices
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit USc/Lbs Last 83.48 91.75

as on April 19, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 0.00 -2.45 -1.02 -0.49 MoM -8.09 -7.18 YoY -7.29 -8.52

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

The Cotton Association of India CAI has estimated the cotton crop for the season 2012-13 at 35.1 million bales as against 37.3 million bales in 2011- 12. However, higher exports and domestic consumption can be met through revised higher opening stocks of 40 lakh bales and higher imports. After witnessing record exports in 2011-12 season, Indian exports could witness significant fall this season on the back of lower availability along with unattractive domestic cotton prices. CAB estimates cotton exports at 80 lakh bales this season, compared with 128.8 lakh bales last year.

Global Cotton Updates

ICE cotton traded on a flat note yesterday and settled unchanged. Prices declined earlier this week as investors continued to liquidate and mills held off purchasing into the falling market. According to China Cotton Association, China will continue with its stockpiling policy this year which will boost imports. Exports were higher compared to previous week but lower compared to four week average. According to the USDA report, planting intentions for the 2013-14 season are said to be at a 4 year low. Also, there are expectations of good export demand from China. Reports of India and China releasing stocks from the state reserve led to a decline in the prices. China, the worlds largest consumer, is expected to sell about 3 mn tn of cotton this year from state reserves of around 10 mn tn. USDA has initially forecasted US Cotton acreage for 2013-14 season, at smallest in 20 yrs, however, with recent surge in prices, farmers may decide to plant more cotton. The planting intention data is schedule to be released on 28th march 2013.

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX April contract

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April Futures Cotton MCX April Futures Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale

valid for Apr 20, 2013 Support 845-855 17700-17860 Resistance 870-888 18170-18310

Outlook
We expect Cotton prices to trade with a downward bias today. Weak global market sentiments coupled with lack of buying by mills may pressurize prices. However, lower supplies from farmers may support prices at lower levels. China will continue its stockpiling policy, may also support prices. US cotton planting intentions were reported at a 4 year low which may support prices.

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