GS IP# Oil, Globalization, Middle East, Terrorism Petro-Globalization What are linkages between globalization and petroleum economy?

- rise of demand - empowerment of economic growth in developing countries - moving oil starts in 1930s, increased finds and interest - oil and access: (John Blair The Control of Oil - the Seven Sisters: ) What are the variables in causal chain? - oil is vehicle for terrorism, globalization provides avenue - rentier (french): rent seeking behavior...raw material producers become these -- empowering havenots due to elites centralizing and controlling resource -- as opposed to finished goods, state manages process and receives revenue directly -- state loses accountability w/ population; tend not to charge individual income tax -- state can spend profits however it wants without input from population -- "it's not my money, so why should I care?" -- tend to have high military expenditures (keep people employed/in check) -- Dutch Disease: one commodity dominates country, then currency value increases, making trade more difficult...other commodities become too expensive...negatively impacts economy -- both consequence of single economy, different results... Differences within the Arab world and within Arab oil producing countries... - attempts to diversify economy...Dubai, Doha, What is structure of the states he focuses on? - low institutional...elite power centers - founding families back to 17-1800s - colonialism did not impact...allowed for local autonomy - high capacity, low democratic (be careful because mechanism for accountability is just different in tribal culture...local tribal consensus) ---Role of US and other countries in region...US, UK, France roles in expanding global oil trade? Did this contribute to global propagation of terror? - system makers and privilege takers - Muslim revival/Islam reform and entrenchment has gone in cycles...focus on the far enemy (Byzantine, Crusades, Ottoman Turks)...nothing new about this - Israel quarrel is older than oil Does oil make the issues/underlying conflicts more global? - certainly... - US policy unpopular...focus for emotions - Cold War terrorism was a different flavor: nationalistic and state-sponsored...oil was around during Cold War, so argument doesn't hold up After 9/11, was there a debate about why and how US actions would impact? -

Global narrative...al Qaeda is not the number one broadcaster of antiAmericanism...number one is Mubarak and Saudi... - terrorism is alarmism...a global nuisance - preachers, scholars,...much more influential in centers (Mecca, Medina) Weather impacts oil more than terrorism.. - the market absorbs it... The bigger picture: Audrey Kronins How Terrorism Ends - how many have succeeded historically..5% (based on stated goals) The serial killer vs all other crimes...heuristics: focusing on the false narrative or the mis-balanced narrative - terrorism is very ineffective - world petroleum system is remarkably stable and resilient Globalization...energy independence is irrelevant...the world is integrated in more ways than just energy... - oil provides money...funds terrorism - haves and have nots debate arises Terrorism is historical...but mostly local - 1940-50s cause against Israel was Palestinian nationalism - with failure of Arab nationalism, needed new narrative to focus on (Islamism) - but...regimes (Saudi) willingly or blind eye empowered terrorism to support regime stability - when Islamism fails to realize the desires of the extremists, what happens? What does it become next? The system has evolved as it has...you can't arbitrarily remove variables and imagine how it would be different... - had we not made choice to invest in ME but rather the Central American crime network...and deal with the US demand issue... - so...strategic choice

----Oil and global underground banking has funded terrorism? - the structure is there certainly, but is the cause-effect there? - Hwalas..method to send money back home (IOU network) -- problem: non-WMD $500,000 event (9/11) -- argument: costs more to disrupt networks - but...what was the opportunity cost vs benefit?

Amount of money and disruption of reputable charitable networks has increased significantly, but has it contributed significantly to cause-effect of terrorism? - most Islamists criticize al Qaeda as missing the message...don't go after far enemy - Israel is now stronger than ever...US presence greater...so results were opposite of what al Qaeda wanted - US popularity hasn't been high in many oil states, but you don't see revolutions uprising in all of these locations... Yes those people are out there to be recruited, but who is attracted by arguments? - it's the well-educated, well-positioned people - reasons given: the attack on Islam, exposure to West, - poorest people when asked: I expect to be miserable...no upward mobility So....the argument is a bit of a stretch (oil supports and sustains terrorism) Does Saudi Arabia support terrorism? Actively or passively or do they work to stop? - madrasa...schools that teach Islam - how many serious terrorists (significant act) went to a madrasa? 11% -- 54% went to a university -- nobody did this investigation before taking action If Islamist oriented regime fails in Egypt, what happens? Split...Islam in one country or Islam globally? - internationalism won...most people think of themselves locally...I'm an Egyptian first, then a Muslim - think locally act locally groups may have more survival, but fundamentally disinterested in global project...more interested in political power ---Summary: weak argument...but, it allows discussion on consequences of globalization, oil, and Islamic terrorism individually... - factors more important to look at - terrorism is a nuisance...in perspective and absent emotion, events are very survivable - petro dollars don't perpetuate terrorism...highly complex construct with many causes - terrorism as a strategy will not survive test of time...may have diverted attention from state to state security concerns...particularly for the US