TAMAYO, Vincent Gil D.

2007-27986 EE 200a

Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) Forecasting Methodology

I.

Forecasting Method A. Econometric method based on the growth of GDP, and other economic variables as well as the sales of appliances B. End user method that is based on the number of household appliances and the time a specific appliance is used, specifically those that consumes high electricity such as heaters C. Historical Data method used in WESM that is based on the past data which is matched in the present using a scale factor 1. Similar Day Load Forecast (SDLF) uses the load profile of the past days with similar conditions (day of the month, special day, holiday, extreme weather) to forecast the future day under consideration a. Day ahead projection b. Week ahead projection 2. Load Predictor (LDP) uses univariate method which is based on actual observations in a given time series of projection a. Real Time Dispatch (RTD) forecast or Hour ahead projection with 5 minutes interval

II.

RTD forecast is measured based on the accuracy of the forecasts against the actual demand in each trading interval , excluding Kalayaan Pump schedule, line tripping that results load dropping of >1% of actual demand, load shedding, and sudden change in weather A. Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is the summation of the efficiency of the forecast all over the number of forecast interval

B. Forecast Accuracy Rate (FAR) is the frequency of the allowed MAPE all over the number of forecast interval

III.

Effects of forecasting on dispatch A. Effective Forecast the forecasted load is within the tolerance, normal condition of the system is observed 1. An effective forecast has a MAPE less than or equal to 3% 2. The allowable frequency range is between 59.7 Hz and 60.3 Hz, nominal value of 60 Hz 3. Normal dispatch of generators only those who cleared the load demand will be dispatched B. Under Forecast the forecasted load is lower than the load demand 1. Ancillary services support the transmission capacity and flow of active power to maintain system reliability and security a. Frequency reserve- kind of regulating reserve that manages frequency when it deviates from the allowable frequency range b. Contingency reserve generating capacity that is intended to take over if a sudden and unexpected loss of load happens c. Spinning reserve generating capacity that is used when a generator trips, generators that have fast start capacity d. Reactive power support used to increase or decrease the reactive power 2. Must Run Units (MRU) generating unit that is needed to run at a particular time interval to address system security and reliability a. System voltage requirement refers to the required voltage control and reactive power b. Thermal limits of transmission line and power equipment refers to the dispatch limitation of generators affected by the actual condition of the transmission line and power equipment c. Insufficient offers from generators

d. Inadequate levels of reserve to meet the security and reliability of the power grid 3. Merit Order Table list of generator offers at a specific time interval, including their ramp rate and starting power 4. Load dropping - is the process of dropping or removing scheduled loads from the power system to maintain system integrity 5. Assessment of the power system

C. Over Forecast the forecasted demand is higher than the actual demand 1. The system operator decides whether to follow the MOT or use the Must Run Units (MRU), depending on the severity of the impending effect of the forecast on the next time interval 2. Implementation of System Operator Emergency Procedure on overfrequency 3. Tripping of a certain generator to level off the generation and demand 4. Assessment of the power system