=
 The probability of event B given event A is
( )
( )
( )

P A B
P B A
P A
=
21
Example 12 Refer Table 1 (Page 17)
If one of those employees is selected at random for
membership on the employee management committee,
find the probabilities for each of the followings:
a) the chosen employee is a male given that he is
graduated from college
b) the chosen employee is not a college graduate given
that this employee is female
22
Example 13
A person owns a collection of 30 CDs, of which 5 are
country music.
a) 2 CDs are selected at random and with
replacement. Find the probability that the second
CD is country music given that the first CD is
country music.
b) This time the selection made is without
replacement. Find the probability that the second
CD is country music given that the first CD is
country music.
23
3.4.1 Mutually Exclusive Events & NonMutually
Exclusive Events
\ Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot
occur at the same time (they have no outcomes in
common).
\ The probability of two or more events can be
determined by the addition rules.
\ There are two addition rules to determine either the
two events are mutually exclusive or not mutually
exclusive.
Addition Rule 1
When two events A and B are mutually exclusive, the
probability that A or B will occur is
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) or
P(A and B) = 0
P(A) P(B)
24
Addition Rule 2
When two events A and B are not mutually exclusive,
then
P(A or B)= P(A) + P(B) P(A and B)
Example 14
Consider the following events when rolling a die:
A = an even number is obtained = {2,4,6}
B = an odd number is obtained = {1,3,5}
Are events A and B are mutually exclusive ?
Solution:
A
B
P(B)
P(A)
P(A and B)
25
Example 15
Determine which events are mutually exclusive and
which are not when a single die is rolled.
a) Getting a 3 and getting an odd number.
b) Getting a number greater than 4 and getting a
number less than 4.
c) Getting an odd number and getting a number less
than 4.
Example 16
There are 8 nurses and 5 physicians in a hospital unit; 7
nurses and 3 physicians are females. If a staff person is
selected, find the probability that the subject is a nurse
or a male.
Solution:
Staff Female, F Male, M Total
Nurses, N 7 1 8
Physicians, PY 3 2 5
Total 10 3 13
26
Example 17
At a convention there are 7 mathematics instructors, 5
computer sciences instructors, 3 statistics instructors,
and 4 science instructors. If an instructor is selected,
find the probability of getting a science instructor or a
math instructor.
Solution:
P(science instructor or math instructor)
27
Example 18
A grocery store employs cashiers, stock clerks and deli
personnel. The distribution of employees according to
marital status is shown here.
Marital Status Cashiers Clerks Deli Personnel
Married
8 12 3
Not Married
5 15 2
If an employee is selected at random, find these
probabilities:
a. the employee is a stock clerk or married
b. the employee is not married
c. the employee is a cashier or is unmarried
28
3.4.2 Independent vs Dependent Events
\ For two independent events, A and B, the
occurrence of event A does not change the
probability of B occurring.
\ The probability of independent events can be
determined as:
P( A  B ) = P(A) Or
P( B  A ) = P(B)
Or
Multiplication Rule 1
When two events are independent, the
probability of both occurring
P(A B) = P(A) P(B)
29
Example 19
A box contains 3 red balls, 2 blue balls, and 5 white
balls. A ball is selected and its colour noted. Then it is
replaced. A second ball is selected and its colour noted.
Find the probability of each of these:
a. selecting two blue balls.
b. selecting 1 blue ball and then 1 white ball.
c. selecting 1 red ball and then 1 blue ball.
30
Example 20
A survey found that 68% of book buyers are 40 years or
older. If two book buyers are selected at random, find
the probability that both are 40 years or older.
\ On the other hand, two events, A and B are
dependent when the occurrence of the event A
changes the probability of the occurrence of event B.
\ When two events are dependent, another
multiplication rule can be used to find the
probability.
Multiplication Rule 2
When two events are dependent, the probability
of both occurring
P (A B) = P(A) P( B  A )
31
Example 21
In a scientific study there are 8 tigresses, 5 of which are
pregnant. If 3 are selected at random without
replacement, find the probability that:
a) all tigresses are pregnant.
P (PGPGPG) =
PG
PG
1
st
tigress
2
nd
tigress
3
rd
tigress Outcomes
PG
PG
PG
PG
PG
PG
PG
PG
PG
PG
PG
3
8
3
7
5
7
3
6
3
6
2
6
4
6
PG
32
b) two tigresses are pregnant.
Let A be an event of two tigresses are pregnant
P(A) = P(PGPG
PG
) + P(PG
PG
PG)
+ P(
PG
PGPG)
=
3.4.3 Complementary Events
\ The set of outcomes in the sample space that is not
included in the outcomes of event E.
\ Denoted as E (read E bar)
33
Example 22
Find the complement of each event.
a. Rolling a die and getting a 4
b. Selecting a letter of the alphabet and getting a
vowel
c. Selecting a day of the week and getting a weekday
\ The outcomes of an event and the outcomes of the
complement make up the entire sample space.
\ The rule of complementary events can be stated
algebraically in three ways:
) ( 1 ) ( E P E P =
Or
) ( 1 ) ( E P E P =
Or
1 ) ( ) ( = + E P E P
34
\ The concept can be represented pictorially by the
following Venn Diagram.
Example 23
In a group of 2000 taxpayers, 400 have been audited by
the IRS at least once. If one taxpayer is randomly
selected from this group, what are the probability of that
taxpayer has never been audited by the IRS?
Solution:
Let, A = the selected taxpayer has been audited by the
IRS at least once
A
= the selected taxpayer has never been audited
by the IRS
P(E)
P(S)=1
P(E)
) (E P
35
\ The multiplication rules can be used with the
complementary event rule to simplify solving
probability problems involving at least.
Example 24
At a local university 54.3% of incoming first year
students have computers. If three students are selected
at random, find the probability at least one has the
computer
Solution:
Let, C = at least one student has a computer
C
= none of the students has a computer
P(has computer) =
So, P(has no computers) =
By using the complementary event rule,
) ( 1 ) ( C P C P =
=
36
Example 25
In a department store there are 120 customers, 90 of
whom will buy at least one item. If 4 customers are
selected at random, one by one, find the probability that
at least one of the customers will but at least one item.
Would you consider this event likely to occur? Explain.
Solution: Let
C = at least one customer will buy at least one item
C
= none of the customers will buy at least one item
P(will buy at least one item) =
So, P(wont buy any items) =
By using the complementary event rule,
) ( 1 ) ( C P C P =
=

.

\

4
1
4
1
4
1
4
1
1
= 1
256
1
=
256
255
= 0.9961
Yes, this event is most likely to occur (certain event) since
the probability almost 1
NOTE: THE FOLLOWING EXAMPLES ARE BASED ON THE OVERALL
UNDERSTANDING OF THE ENTIRE PROBABILITY CONCEPTS
37
Example 26
A random sample of 400 college students was asked if
college athletes should be paid. The following table
gives a twoway classification of the responses.
Should be paid,
PAID
Should not be
paid, PAID
Total
Student athlete, SA 90 10 100
Student non
athlete, SNA
210 90 300
Total 300 100 400
a) If one student is randomly selected from these 400
students, find the probability that this student
i. Is in favour of paying college athletes
ii. Favours paying college athletes given that the
student selected is a nonathlete
38
iii. Is an athlete and favours paying student athletes
iv. Is a nonathlete or is against paying student
athletes
b) Are the events student athlete and should be
paid independent? Are they mutually exclusive?
Explain why or why not.
P(SAPAID) = 9/40 = 0.2250 and
P(SA) P(PAID) =
=
400
100
Since, P(SAPAID) = P(SA) P(PAID), those two
events are not independent (dependent).
And since P(SAPAID) = 0, those two events are
not mutually exclusive
39
Example 27
A screening test for a certain disease is prone to giving
false positives of false negatives. If a patient being
tested has the disease, the probability that the test
indicates a false negative is 0.13. If the patient does not
have the disease, the probability that the test indicates a
false positive is 0.10. Assume that 3% of the patients
being tested actually have the disease. Suppose that one
patient is chosen at random and tested. Find the
probability that;
Let D = the patient has the disease
D= the patient does not have the disease
PO = the patient tests positive
NE = the patient tests negative
40
a. This patient has the disease and tests positive
b. This patient does not have the disease and tests
positive
c. This patient tests positive
d. This patient does not have the disease and tests
negative
e. This patient has the disease given that he/she tests
positive
41
EXERCISES
1. For each of the following, indicate whether the type of
probability involved is an example of classical probability,
empirical probability or subjective probability:
i) the next toss of a fair coin will land on heads.
ii) italy will win soccers World Cup the next time the
competition is held.
iii) the sum of the faces of two dice will be 7.
iv) the train taking a commuter to work will be more than
10 minutes late.
2. A test contains two multiplechoice questions. If a student
makes a random guess to answer each question, how many
outcomes are possible? Draw a tree diagram for this
experiment. (Hint: Consider two outcomes for each
question either the answer is correct or it is wrong).
3. Refer to question 1. List all the outcomes included in each
of the following events and mention which are simple and
which are compound events.
i) Both answers are correct.
ii) At most one answer is wrong.
iii) The first answer is correct and the second is wrong.
iv) Exactly one answer is wrong.
42
4. State whether the following events are independent or
dependent.
i) Getting a raise in salary and purchasing a new car.
ii) Having a large shoe size and having a high IQ.
iii) A father being lefthanded and a daughter being left
handed.
iv) Eating an excessive amount of ice cream and smoking
an excessive amount of cigarettes.
5. 88% of American children are covered by some type of
health insurance. If four children are selected at random,
what is the probability that none are covered?
6. A box of nine golf gloves contains two lefthanded gloves
and seven righthanded gloves.
i) If two gloves are randomly selected from the box
without replacement, what is the probability that both
gloves selected will be righthanded?
ii) If three gloves are randomly selected from the box
without replacement, what is the probability that all
three will be lefthanded?
iii) If three gloves are randomly selected from the box
without replacement, what is the probability that at
least one glove will be righthanded?
43
7. A financial analyst estimates that the probability that the
economy will experience a recession in the next 12 months
is 25%. She also believes that if the economy encounters
recession, the probability that her mutual fund will
increase in value is 20%. If there is no recession, the
probability that the mutual fund will increase in value is
75%. Find the probability that the mutual funds value will
increase.
8. A car rental agency currently has 44 cars available. 18 of
which have a GPS navigation system. One of the 44 cars is
selected at random, find the probability that this car,
i) has a GPS navigation system.
ii) does not have a GPS navigation system.
Now, two cars are selected at random from these 44 cars.
Find the probability that at least one of these cars have
GPS navigation system.
9. A recent study of 300 patients found that of 100 alcoholic
patients, 87 had elevated cholesterol levels, and 200 non
alcoholic patients, 43 had elevated cholesterol levels.
i) If a patient is selected at random, find the probability
that the patient is the following,
an alcoholic with elevated cholesterol level.
a nonalcoholic.
a nonalcoholic with nonelevated cholesterol level.
44
ii) Are the events alcoholic and nonelevated
cholesterol levels independent? Are they mutually
exclusive? Explain why or why not.
10. The probability that a randomly selected student from
college is female is 0.55 and that a student works more
than 10 hours per week is 0.62. If these two events are
independent, find the probability that a randomly selected
student is a
i) male and works for more than 10 hours per week.
ii) female or works for more than 10 hours per week.
11. A housing survey studied how City Sun homeowners get
to work. Suppose that the survey consisted of a sample of
1,000 homeowners and 1,000 renters.
Drives to Work Homeowner Renter
Yes 824 681
No 176 319
i) If a respondent is selected at random, what if the
probability that he or she
drives to work?
drives to work and is a homeowner?
does not drive to work or is a renter?
45
ii) Given that the respondent drives to work, what then is
the probability that he or she is a homeowner?
iii) Given that the respondent drives to work, what then is
the probability that he or she is a renter?
iv) Are the two events, driving to work and the
respondent is a homeowner, independent?
v) Purchased more products and changed brands?
vi) Given that a consumer changed the brands they
purchased, what then is the probability that the
consumer purchased fewer products than before?
12. Due to the devaluation which occurred in country PQR,
the consumers of that country were buying fewer
products than before the devaluation. Based on a study
conducted, the results were reported as the following:
Brands
Purchased
Number of Products Purchased
Fewer Same More
Same 10 14 24
Changed 262 82 8
What is the probability that a consumer selected at
random:
46
i) purchased fewer products than before?
ii) purchased the same number or same brands?
iv) purchased more products and changed brands?
iv) given that a consumer changed the brands they
purchased, what then is the probability that the
consumer purchased fewer products than before?
13. A softdrink bottling company maintains records
concerning the number of unacceptable bottles of soft
drink from the filling and capping machines. Based on
past data, the probability that a bottle came from machine
I and was nonconforming is 0.01 and the probability that
a bottle came from machine II and was nonconfirming is
0.0025. If a filled bottle of soft drink is selected at
random, what is the probability that
i) it is a nonconfirming bottle?
ii) it was filled on machine I and is a conforming bottle?
iii) it was filled on machine II or is a conforming bottle?
iv) suppose you know that the bottle was produced on
machine I, what is the probability that it is non
conforming?
47
14. Each year, ratings are compiled concerning the
performance of new cars during the first 90 days of use.
Based on a study, the probability that the new car needs a
warranty repair is 0.04, the probability that the car
manufactured by Country ABC is 0.60, and the
probability that the new car needs a warranty repair and
was manufactured by Country ABC is 0.025.
i) What is the probability that the car needs a warranty
repair given that Country ABC manufactured it?
ii) What is the probability that the car needs a warranty
repair given that Country ABC did not manufacture
it?
iii) Are need for a warranty repair and country
manufacturing the car statistically independent?
15. CASTWAY is a direct selling company which has 350
authorized sale agents from all over the country. It is
known that 168 of them are male. 40% of male sale
agents has permanent job while half of female sale agents
do not have permanent job.
i) Draw a tree diagram to illustrate the above events.
ii) What is the probability that a randomly selected sale
agent,
has permanent job?
is a male given that he does not have permanent
job?