Clues to Climate Change Grades: 5-8 Curriculum Connections: Science Standards Connections: National Academies of Science, National Science

Education Standards

Content Standard D: Earth and Space Science/Structure of the Earth System-Global patterns of atmospheric movement influence local weather

Required Software: Microsoft Word version 2002; Microsoft PowerPoint version 2002, the Office XP presentation solution; Microsoft Internet Explorer 5/5.5; Microsoft Excel version 2002; Microsoft Paint What's in this Lesson:

Teacher Guide (including How to Begin) Resources Student Activity, Step-by-Step: o Step A: From One Extreme to the Other o Step B: Global Patterns, Local Effects o Step C (Optional): Mine the Data o Step D: Join the Debate!

Teacher Guide Summary: Global warming is big in the news, but it can seem too "academic" and abstract to be relevant to your students. This lesson "brings it home" by framing the global warming debate in terms of local weather and online data that your students can analyze and interpret themselves. It captures their interest with a look at extreme winter weather in their home state (as well as in the other 49) and expands to raise larger questions about the political, economic, and environmental causes and effects of global climate change. Objectives:

To stimulate student interest in topics related to global weather patterns and their local effects. To encourage students to look at data as clues that can be analyzed to answer questions and support hypotheses. To provide an opportunity for students to hone research and presentation skills using online resources and research

Prerequisite Skills:

Ability to navigate and search the Web using Internet Explorer Previous experience using PowerPoint to create simple presentations Basic Microsoft Word skills Introduction to Excel (more experience required for optional Step C)

Time Allotted:

Three to four class periods

How to Begin: 1. Preview the Web sites listed under Resources. Add the resources you like best to your Favorites so that students will have easy access. 2. As part of this activity, your students will create a PowerPoint presentation. Create a template for them to use, and post it where they can all access it. This will save them time and make sure that all presentations have a consistent look. 3. Your students will need Adobe Acrobat Reader to view PDF files that they download in Step A. Make sure that Acrobat Reader is installed on every student computer before you begin this activity. You can download Acrobat Reader at http://www.adobe.com/products/acrobat/readstep2.html 4. In Step B, you must assign each of your student teams a different city to study. The cities you can choose from are displayed on a map (see http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/city.html). Be sure to assign only cities displayed in blue. They have complete temperature histories that your students need to complete the activity. 5. There are several optional steps in this activity: the last step in Step A and the entire Step C. The option in Step A requires no exceptional skills or experience. Step C requires skill with Excel beyond that which is required for the rest of the activity. Before you begin this activity, review the optional steps carefully and consider which are appropriate for your students. 6. Copy and hand out the Student Activity pages, and set your class to work! RESOURCES National Climatic Data Center/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ "The World's Largest Archive of Weather Data," including historical analysis.

Global Warming Sites http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html A good place to start your research. http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/ Another government perspective.

http://www.climatehotmap.org/index.html An environmentalist perspective. http://www.globalwarming.org/ A business perspective. NCDC/NOAA-U.S. Cities Analysis http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/city.html Over 100 years of temperature and precipitation records for nearly 40 U.S. cities.

NCDC/NOAA-Storm Events http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwEvent~Storms Historical database of major U.S. storm events that you can search by state. NCDC/NOAA-Temperature Extremes and Drought http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/severeweather/temperatures.html Tables, maps, and graphs documenting extreme weather events in the United States, including record high and record low temperatures by state. USA Today Weather http://www.usatoday.com/weather/wfront.htm Archived weather stories, temperatures around the country and the world, and more. Weather.com/The Weather Channel http://www.weather.com/ Everything from current forecasts to weird weather news. The Weather Underground http://www.wunderground.com/ Easy-access weather maps for every kind of data, plus forecasts and more. Latitude Calculators http://www.arrl.org/locate/locate.html http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/gazetteer Enter the name of a city and instantly get the exact latitude and longitude. Student Activity Description: There's plenty of talk about global warming, but what does it really mean? Does it mean that our winters are not as cold as they used to be? And how does it affect the temperature variations from season to season and year to year? You can answer some of these questions by studying weather information and analysis available online. With the right data and the right tools, you can form your own opinions about global warming and climate change-and back them up with cold, hard numbers!

Step A From One Extreme to the Other Software: Microsoft Excel 2002, Microsoft Word 2002, Microsoft PowerPoint 2002, Microsoft Internet Explorer 5/5.5 What to do: What can temperature extremes tell you about global warming? 1. Global warming is the subject of "heated" debate among scientists, environmentalists, and policymakers throughout the world. Your teacher will lead a class discussion on the subject. What do you know about global warming? What are the causes and effects? 2. According to some experts, one sign of global warming is decreasing variability in temperature extremes on a regional scale. After your class discussion, your teacher will divide your class into teams of three or four to investigate record low temperatures in the United States over the past century. 3. Go to the NCDC/NOAA Temperature Extremes and Drought page (http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/severeweather/temperatures.html). Scroll down to the All-Time Temperature Minimums by State heading, and right-click the Table (PDF) link beneath it to display the shortcut menu. Click Save Target As in the shortcut menu, and save the Mintemps.pdf file to your desktop. 4. Go to your desktop, and double-click the Mintemps.pdf file to open it with Adobe Acrobat Reader. This table lists the lowest temperatures ever recorded (since about 1890) in every U.S. state. Find your state in the table. What is the record low and when was it recorded? Where was it measured, and at what elevation? Does it ever get nearly that cold where you live? Why or why not? 5. Looking at these extremely low temperatures, you might think a little warming trend wouldn't hurt. Is there any way to tell from these numbers if such a trend is actually occurring? Check the global warming sites listed in Resources for more information about the possible effects of global warming on extreme temperatures. 6. In Acrobat Reader, use the Text Select Tool to select the contents of the Mintemps table, and then click Copy. Paste the contents into a new Word document, and then save the document to your desktop. 7. In the Word document, select the complete list of dates, and click Copy on the Edit menu. Open Excel, click on cell A1, and then click the Paste button. The dates will fill column A from rows 1 to 50. 8. You need to "clean up" this data before Excel can work with it effectively. For example, you need to delete all the periods following the month abbreviations before Excel will recognize them as date values. To do this quickly and easily: a. Click Find on the Edit menu. b. On the Replace tab, type a period (.) in the Find what box.

c. Leave the Replace with box empty. d. Click Replace All. You'll also need to delete asterisks next to some of the dates. 9. Select column A and click the Sort Ascending button on the toolbar. Now manually move (that is, use the Cut and Paste commands) the dates prior to 1900 to the top of the column. 10. Now that you have all the cold record dates (1893-1999) in order, it's easier to see whether record low temperatures are evenly distributed over the years. In column B on your spreadsheet, or on a separate sheet of paper, tally the number of record lows for each year in the list. 11. Compare the number of record lows in the first half of this period (1893-1946) to the number of record lows in the second half (1947-1999). Is this conclusive proof for or against a warming trend? Why or why not?

12. Open the PowerPoint template created by your teacher. Personalize it by adding the names of your team members to the first slide. Create a new slide, titled "Minimum Temperatures and Global Warming." In bullet points, report your interpretation of the distribution of record lows determined in Step 11. 13. Optional: Repeat steps 1-10, using data from the All-Time Temperature Maximums by State table on the NCDC Temperature Extremes and Drought page. See whether recorded maximums are evenly distributed over the years. Record your findings and interpretations in a new PowerPoint slide, titled "Maximum Temperatures and Global Warming."

Step B Global Patterns, Local Effects Software: Microsoft Excel 2002, Microsoft Paint, Microsoft PowerPoint 2002, Microsoft Internet Explorer 5/5.5 What to do: Analyze temperature trends for individual cities. 1. Go to the NCDC/NOAA U.S. Cities Analysis page (http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/city.html). Click the city that your teacher has assigned to your team. The Climate Summary page for your city is displayed.

2. In the climate history compiler at the bottom of the page, your city is preselected. Set the remaining options to the following values: Data type: Period: Mean Temperature Winter (Dec-Feb)

First Year to Display: 1895 Last Year to Display: 2001

Display Type:

Line Chart

3. Click Submit, and study the resulting chart. Note the temperature trend (degrees F/decade). 4. Take a "snapshot" of the line chart that you generated in Step 2. While the chart is displayed on your screen, press ALT + PRINT SCREEN to copy the screen image to the Clipboard. Now open Microsoft Paint, and click the Paste button. The screen capture appears in your Paint window. Save the image as a bitmap to your desktop. 5. Repeat Step 2 for each of the other three seasons, and for annual median temperatures. Save each of these charts as a bitmap as in Step 3.

6. Create six new slides in your PowerPoint presentation, titled "Temperature Trends in [Your City]." Insert your screen captures on the first five slides. On the sixth slide, summarize the trend information and give your interpretations. Can you explain the annual trend in terms of the seasonal trends? Can longterm temperature trends for individual cities provide evidence of global climate change?

Step C (OPTIONAL) Mine the Data Software: Microsoft Excel 2002, Microsoft PowerPoint 2002, Microsoft Internet Explorer 5/5.5 What to do: Use statistical analysis to compare temperature variability over time between U.S. cities. 1. As we discussed in Step A, global warming may affect temperature variability. The temperature trends you identified for your city in Step B don't indicate year-to-year variability. To do that, we need to calculate standard deviations for the data. Calculating standard deviation and coefficient of variation also allows you to compare differences in variability between cities. (See Sidebar for more information about standard deviation and coefficient of variation) 2. Return to the NCDC/NOAA U.S. Cities Analysis page (http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/city.html). Click the city that your teacher has assigned to your group to go to the Climate Summary page for that city.

3. In the climate history compiler at the bottom of the page, your city is preselected. Set the remaining options to the following values: Data type: Mean Temperature

Period:

Winter (Dec-Feb)

First Year to Display: 1895 Last Year to Display: 2001 Display Type: Table

4. Click Submit to generate the data table. 5. Select the contents of the table, and click Copy on the Edit menu. Open the Excel worksheet that you created in Step A, and click on the Sheet 2 tab at the bottom of the window to open an empty spreadsheet. Select the A1 cell, and click the Paste button. The table's contents will flow into columns A through D of the spreadsheet. Delete the ranking data from columns C and D; you won't be using it. 6. Before Excel can perform the necessary calculations, you need to delete the "deg F" labels from the temperature data. To do this quickly and easily: a. Click Find on the Edit menu. b. On the Replace tab, type deg F in the Find what box. c. Leave the Replace with box empty. d. Click Replace All. 7. Format cells in column B, below the temperature data, to perform the calculations. First create labels for these calculations in the adjacent cells in column A. In four empty cells below the column of dates, type (top cell to bottom): a. 1895-2001 b. Mean c. Standard Deviation d. Coefficient of Variation

8. Select the cell in column B next to the "Mean" label, and type this formula in the formula bar: =AVERAGE(BX:BY) where X is the number of the first row of temperature data and Y is the number of the last row of temperature data. This formula will calculate the arithmetic mean for your entire dataset. Or click Function on the Insert menu to format this cell. 9. Select the cell in column B next to the "Standard Deviation" label, and type this formula in the formula bar: =STDEVP(BX:BY) where X is the number of the first row of temperature data and Y is the number of the last row of temperature data. This formula will calculate the

standard deviation for your entire dataset. Or click Function on the Insert menu to format this cell. 10. Select the cell in column B next to the "Coefficient of Variation" label, and type this formula in the formula bar: =BN/B(N+1) where BN is the cell that contains your standard deviation calculation, and B(N+1) is the cell that contains your mean. This formula will calculate your coefficient of variation (percent error of the mean). 11. The standard deviation and coefficient of variation for the entire dataset alone don't tell you much. However, comparing the standard deviations of the first half of your data versus the second half can reveal a change in variability over the course of the century. Repeat Steps 6 through 9 for the temperature data from 18951948 and again for 19492001. Format cells below your existing statistics to hold your new calculations-don't overwrite your previous work. Be sure to make the following adjustments: . Use the same labels as before, except for the different date ranges.

a. Use =STDEV(BX:BY) for your standard deviation formula (because these date ranges are subsets of the entire data population). b. Remember to use X and Y values that correspond to the date ranges you are evaluating.

12. Compare the standard deviations for the first and second halves of your data range. Do your results support an interpretation of decreasing variability due to global warming? Create a new slide in your PowerPoint presentation, titled "Standard Deviation over Time," and include your calculations and interpretations. 13. Share your data and calculations with the other teams in your class. Compare their standard deviations and coefficients of variation with yours. Can you draw any conclusions about the variability of winter temperatures in different cities? Add another slide to your PowerPoint presentation, titled "Standard Deviation-Comparing Cities." Make sure your bullet points address the following issues: . What are the possible explanations for differences in variability between cities? Consider the effects of altitude, latitude, and proximity of large bodies of water. Consult a map if necessary.

a. Explain the importance of the coefficient of variation when comparing the standard deviation of your data with that of cities that have very different mean temperatures. Standard Deviation Standard deviation quantifies the variation in a group of numbers. It's the average of the deviations of each number from the mean (average). Standard deviation allows you to compare the variability of different datasets.

The standard deviation formula in Microsoft Excel comes in many flavors. For the purpose of this activity, we are interested in only two:

STDEV is used when the data being evaluated is only a partial sampling of the whole population of values. STDEVP is used when the data being evaluated is the entire population (hence the P) of values.

You can find more information about standard deviation, including the specific formulas that Excel uses, in your Microsoft Excel Help. Coefficient of Variation The coefficient of variation (also known as the percent error of the mean) allows you to compare standard deviations of datasets that have very different means. It represents the relative variation in the data by expressing the standard deviation as a percentage of the mean. The formula is: coefficient of variation = standard deviation / mean Step D Join the Debate! Software: Microsoft PowerPoint 2002 What to do: Take a stand on global warming. Defend your position in your PowerPoint presentation, and cite your sources! 1. Your teacher will mediate an open-class debate on global warming. But first, you'll have time to add one or more slides to your PowerPoint presentation, summarizing your team's position on global warming. Be sure to cite evidence supporting your position, including your findings already documented on previous slides, and any new information you can find in the time allotted. Start with the Web sites listed on the Resources page, but feel free to expand your research. Remember to cite your sources.

2. In the first stage of the debate, teams will present their PowerPoint presentations to the class. Can you persuade other teams to accept your position on global warming? 3. After the PowerPoint presentations, let the debate begin! Think about how you would answer the following questions: a. What is global warming, and how is it related to the greenhouse effect? b. What is the evidence that global warming is actually taking place? c. How does global warming affect precipitation and temperature extremes and variability? d. Should we be concerned about the long-term effects of global warming? If so, why? If not, why not? e. Is global warming caused by human activity? What is the evidence? f. Is there anything we can do to reduce global warming, and should we?

g. What are the political and economic issues surrounding the global warming debate? 4. After the debate, discuss the process as a class. Are there any clear answers to the questions about global warming? What kind of evidence would it take to definitely prove that global warming is taking place? And if we wait for that evidence... will it be too late? Did this activity change your ideas about global warming?