Rafael Aleman MKTG 353 October 9, 2012 Notes Dr.

Atwong will be open to meeting with students to review first exam. Read and understand the test so that you can get an A in the next exam. She will go over the excel file to review and so that you can use it in the future. Geographic information service (GIS) The importance of finding Niche markets and Mass markets Criteria: Index and Down Percent American Community Survey (ACS) Review sample data set. In housing assignment we learned to maneuver huge data set. MRI Data Set over 6000 product categories and names. We are able to find exact count of product users and characteristics and use advertising media. Choose correct ad media to communicate with customer. Find 3 products in MRI database to work on your project. 7 weeks to go until the report is due. The market professional doesnt market to the whole country. We can do single address to find profile of customer or business (like the video during class) pinpoint geographic location. BAO 2nd Exam. NOVEMBER 1st. On second exam compare two different zip codes to learn the strengths and weaknesses. Confidence to use which system and when. Focus on second exam is on sales, specifically on forecasting and predicting sales of existing product. Forecast of new product and new market. Create templates in your job when dealing with different industries. Filing combining Word with PDF in the Tapestry and PRIZM. She will not collect hardcopy so we have to turn in electronically. Sales forecasting is all Excel. Running average Last input will be the first for the next Weighted average Regression ON TEST All facets of business rely on an accurate info of sales forecast. Short run forecast Product Price You have to set price in a big discount way ahead of your competition otherwise you will get stuck with inventory and go out of business. The CEO had a very high sales forecast and when market collapsed they failed to deliver. If they miss forecast and miss to deliver, the employees and customers will suffer. Advertising have to work on the advertising since it takes time. You have to work several months to years in tadvance. Personal selling time to negotiate with vendors, consumers and warehouse on what price to charge before the price increases.

Channels Accounting works on historical performance, other departments will work on the information you provide in the sales forecast. Approaches: Buildup and break down EXCEL file: 3CAST.XLS Can you report the unit case volume? How many drinks? 23,650,000 * 24 drinks per case = number of drinks Can you report how many ounces is a sales forecast? 8oz times 24 per case = Ounces per production

X Time

Y Sales

Dependent- the second is dependent on the one that comes in first Independent Cause and Effect In order to multiply matrixes to do regression 1) Unique 1:1 relationship 2) Numeric

Time period Practice how to install Analysis tool pack: File Options Add inns Analysis tool pack Go Now you can see data analysis on your computer. Data Analysis Regression Y = Sales X = Time Highlight only those that have information. Select Labels Select Residuals It will affect your grade! The Summary Output is a big part of your final exam. Highlight a25 to b38 You drag down 4 down and get the forecast. We want to find out historical forecast and how accurate tht model is. Copy and Paste: from Regression tab to Data tab (123) 29MM cases for the first quarter We cant use the next quarter with the Nave method. Nthing on the 0 quarter. Test may be 2, 3, 5 period moving average. Example: You average three days: sunny, overcast and drizzle

Excel:Click on fx =Average Highlight D27 to D29 26795 as answer Drag up until I9 we dont have info for first three periods, not enough three periods. One method is 29MM other 23MM and another says 27MM We have to look at historical model and predictive performance. REGRESSION ABSOLUTE % ERROR On page 8 of reading material Guidelines for computing MAPE: 1. Calculate the absolute % error (APE) using Excel function: = ABS (actual sales - predicted sales)/ actual sales 2. Format APE as percentage, with one decimal place. 3. Calculate the MAPE using Excel function: = AVERAGE(APE1...APEX ) Hint: When comparing the MAPEs of different models, make sure you include equal number of periods in computing the MAPE for all models. Increase to 1 decimal place to get a better more precise number for number 15.7% For every 1 million they have 15.7% more or 15.7% less given the historical predicition. PRACTICE 3CAST.XLS 4 TIMES!!!!!!!!!!

Visual comparison Insert chart Move info to bottom (Chart tools choose third) Click a6 to B33 to enter the year and quarter in graph.