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Lecture 2
MF2024@md.kth.se http://www.kth.se/itm/inst/mmk/edu/inst_kurser/md/MF2024/
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Today
Monte Carlo Simulation Introduction to Individual Assignment 1 Introduction to L3a and L3b Screw Tightening Exercise
Reliability
- Machine reliability Costs of unexpected stand still in production lines are extremely high (steel mill line 10.000/hour, car paint shop plant 100.000/hour). - Product reliability Data storage devices
Reliability engineering
Reliability engineering
Component reliability System reliability
Procedures to establish component reliability require probability analysis.
Component Reliability
ISO: If a joint is fixed using a nut and bolt from the same grade there is no need to size the nut while the standard length of the nut is such sized that the screw will fail before the thread is stripped.
Component Reliability
Component Reliability
Component Reliability
Component Reliability
Classification of failures Class 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Range [kN] 11.50 - 13.25 13.25 - 15.00 15.00 - 16.75 16.75 18.50 18.50 20.25 20.25 22.00 22.00 23.75 23.75 25.50 ni 1 3 6 13 18 13 6 1 61
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Component Reliability
Classification of failures Class Range [kN] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 11.50 - 13.25 13.25 - 15.00 15.00 - 16.75 16.75 18.50 18.50 20.25 20.25 22.00 22.00 23.75 23.75 25.50 ni 1 3 6 13 18 13 6 1 f(t)=ni/n 0.016 0.049 0.098 0.213 0.295 0.213 0.098 0.016
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Component Reliability
Summary
Case: Thread stripping strength Always check the validity of Rules of thumb Material properties may vary The deterministic approach might be useful with a large factor of safety. High tech reliability designs require a probabilistic approach
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Component Reliability
Case: Hydraulic cylinder
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Component Reliability
Case: Hydraulic cylinder
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Component Reliability
Case: Hydraulic cylinder
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Component Reliability
Case: Hydraulic cylinder dpiston = 299.5 300.0, p = 299.75, p = 0.5/6 dgroove = 294.5 295.0, g = 294.75, g = 0.5/6 hring = 2.9 3.1, r = 3.0, r = 0.2/6 Radial clearance Cr:
Worst case Cr = dgroove,min/2 + hring,min - dpiston,max/2 = 0.15 mm Cr = g/2 + r - p/2 = 0.5 mm Assumed ring deformation = 0.1 mm Measured ring deformation = 0.3 mm
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Typical objective
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Work flow
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Matlab
% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % n % % % % Example Monte Carlo Simulation in Matlab Hydraulic cylinder case 1.1 in van Beek page 14-15 radial clearence rc is determined by a determistic and a probabalistic calculation rc=dgroove/2+hring-dpiston/2 rcmax=maximum allowable radial clearance uniform distribution case reference van Beek Advanced Engineering Design rc=radial clearence (mm) dgroove=diameter groove (mm) hring=thickness ring(mm) dpiston=diameter piston(mm) Generate n samples from a normal distribution r = ( rand(n,1) * sd ) + mu mu : mean sd : standard deviation Generate n samples from a uniform distribution r = a + rand(n,1) * (b-a) a : minimum b : maximum = 100000; % The number of function evaluations --- Generate vectors of random inputs dgroove ~ Uniform distribution U(a=294.5 b=295.0) hring ~ Uniform distribution U(a=2.9 b=3.1) dpiston ~ Uniform distribution U(a=299.5 b=300.0)
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dgroove = 294.5 + rand(n,1) * ( 295.0 - 294.5 ); hring = 2.9 + rand(n,1) * ( 3.1 - 2.9 ); dpiston = 299.5 + rand(n,1) * ( 300.0 - 299.5 ); dgroovem=294.75; hringm=3.0; dpistonm=299.75; % --- Run the simulation crm=dgroovem/2+hringm-dpistonm/2 crmin=min(dgroove)/2+min(hring)-max(dpiston)/2 cr=dgroove/2+hring-dpiston/2; % --- Create a histogram of the results (50 bins) figure(1) hist(dgroove,50); title('diameter groove (mm)') figure(2) hist(hring,50); title('thickness ring (mm)') figure(3) hist(dpiston,50); title('diameter piston (mm)') figure(4) hist(cr,50); title('radial clearence (mm)') % --- Calculate summary statistics cr_mean = mean(cr) cr_std = std(cr) cr_median = median(cr) %Count fraction of points below cr_median fracmedian = sum(cr <= cr_median)/n %Count fraction of points below lower acceptable radial clearance 0.3 mm fraclow = sum(cr <= 0.3)/n
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Simulation results
diameter piston (mm) 2500 2000 1500
1000
500
0 299.5 299.55 299.6 299.65 299.7 299.75 299.8 299.85 299.9 299.95
300
2000
2000
1500
1500
1000
1000
500
500
0 294.5 294.55 294.6 294.65 294.7 294.75 294.8 294.85 294.9 294.95
295
0 2.85
2.9
2.95
3.05
3.1
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Simulation results
radial clearence (mm) 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Common examples of integrated fasteners. (a) Module with four cantilever lugs; (b) cover with two cantilever and two rigid lugs; (c) separable snap joint for chassis cover.
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bh 2 E max P= 6L
tan + W =P 1 tan
3EI P= 3 L
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Tasks
Use Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the distribution of the mating force. Calculate the normal distribution parameters for the mating force (mean and standard deviation). Calculate the rejection rate given the maximum allowable mating force 60 N.
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Alternative code
Use element-by-element operations (.* and ./) instead of for-loop
% Normal distributed secant modulus of elasticity [MPa] Emean = 2.2e3; Estd = 0.1e3; % Parameters % Uniform distributed coefficient of friction [-] mumin = 0.54; mumax = 0.66; % Parameters % Generate array with random instances for input variables N = 100; % Number of trials mu = mumin + (mumax-mumin)*rand(N,1); E = Emean + Estd*randn(N,1); % Calculate arrays with instances for output variables P = b*h^2*E*epsilon/(6*L); W = P.*(tan(alpha)+mu)./(1-mu*tan(alpha));
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Trials
3000 0.8 0.6 2000
E [GPa]
[-]
1000 0
0.4 0.2 0
50 Trial
100
150
50 Trial
100
150
80 60
W [N]
40 20 0
50 Trial
100
150
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Histogram
20 15 10 5 0 1.8 20 15 10 5 0 0.5
2.2 E [GPa]
2.4
2.6
0.55
0.6 [-]
0.65
0.7
20 15 10 5 0 45
50
55 W [N]
60
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Normal distribution
Probability Distribution Function 0.2 0.15
pdf [-]
0.1 0.05 0 30
35
40
45
50
70
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cdf [-]
0.5
0 30
35
40
45
50
55 W [N]
60
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Rejection rate
Criteria: Reject if W>60 N
Probability Distribution Function 0.2 0.15
pdf [-]
0.1 0.05 0 30
35
40
45
50
70
75
80
0,90
cdf [-]
0.5
0 30
35
40
45
50
55 W [N]
60
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Coefficients of friction for common snap fastener polymers, reference Bayer snap fit joints for plastics, A design guide, Bayer Polymers Division, 1966.
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Use Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the distribution of the mating force and the rejection rate given the maximum allowable mating force 60 N. Also calculate the normal distribution parameters for the mating force (mean and standard deviation). Furthermore you should suggest alternative materials that can meet a demand of rejection rate below 1%.
Figure. Cantilever snap joint, figure Anders Sderberg KTH Machine Design.
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Matlab
% Example Monte Carlo Simulation in Matlab % Snap fastener mating force for a cantilever snap joint with rectangular % cross section and constant thickness made of polycarbonate %W=P*(my+tan(alfa))/(1-my*tan(alfa)) % P=b*h^2*E*epsi/(6*L) % reference Hamrock, Jacobson and Schmid Fundamentals of machine elements % %W=mating force (N) %P=deformation force (N) %my=coefficient of friction (-) %alfa=wedge angle of cantilever tip (rad) %b=cantilever length (m) %h=cantilever thickness (%) %E=secant modulus of elasticity %epsi=allowable maximum strain for polymer material %L=cantilever length (m) % % % % % % % % % % Generate n samples from a normal distribution r = ( randn(n,1) * sd ) + mu mu : mean sd : standard deviation Generate n samples from a uniform distribution r = a + rand(n,1) * (b-a) a : minimum b : maximum
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Matlab
n = 100000; % The number of function evaluations % --- Generate vectors of random inputs % E ~ Normal distribution N(mean=2.2e9,sd=0.1e9) % CES edupack E = 2 - 2.4 GPa % my ~ Uniform distribution U(a=0.54,b=0.66) %Self mated polymer Byaer Snap-fits for plastics smaller friction coefficent E = ( randn(n,1) * 0.1e9 ) + 2.2e9; my = 0.54 + rand(n,1) * ( 0.66 - 0.54 ); b=0.0095; L=0.019; h=0.0035; alfa=20*pi/180; epsi=0.02; % --- Run the simulation % Note the use of element-wise multiplication P = b*h^2.*E*epsi/6/L; W = P.*(my+tan(alfa))./(1-my*tan(alfa));
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Matlab
% --- Create a histogram of the results (50 bins) figure(1) hist(E,50); title('secant modulus of elasticity (Pa)') figure(2) hist(my,50); title('coefficient of friction') figure(3) hist(P,50); title('deformation force (N)') figure(4) hist(W,50); title('mating force (N)') % --- Calculate summary statistics W_mean = mean(W) W_std = std(W) %Count fraction of points above upper acceptable mating force 60 N frachigh = sum(W >= 60)/n
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Results fraction of points above upper acceptable mating force 60 N: 13 %, mean=55.4 N and std=3.8 N
mating force (N) 6000 5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0 40
45
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60
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70
75
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Ways to improve!
Choose material with lower friction coefficient Choose a material with lower Young's modulus
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Coefficients of friction for common snap fastener polymers, reference Bayer snap fit joints for plastics, A design guide, Bayer Polymers Division, 1966.
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Result polystrene
% --- Generate vectors of random inputs %polystyrene % E ~ Normal distribution N(mean=1.68e9,sd=0.1e9) % CES edupack E = 1.2 - 2.6 GPa % my ~ Uniform distribution U(a=0.48,b=0.60) %Self mated polymer Byaer Snap-fits for plastics smaller friction coefficent E = ( randn(n,1) * 0.1e9 ) + 1.68e9; my = 0.48 + rand(n,1) * ( 0.60 - 0.48 ); b=0.0095; L=0.019; h=0.0035; alfa=20*pi/180; epsi=0.02;
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Result polystyrene
mating force (N) 6000 5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0 25
30
35
40
45
50
55
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50
4000
3000
2000
1000
0 30
35
40
45
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55
60
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2011
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Threaded fastener
The tightening torque required to obtained an specified axial force depends on: Friction in thread Friction in head contact
Fmin Fi Fmax
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Tasks
Monte Carlo simulation of the distribution of the axial force and an analysis of the rejection rate, due to variations in tightening torque and coefficients of friction Correlation of model with experimental measurements to find the variations in the coefficients of friction (i.e. inverse modeling) Modify the tightening torque in the simulation model to reduce the rejection rate.
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What is next?
L3 Screw tightening exercise - Group 1, 2 Thursday 3/11 - Group 3, 4 Monday 7/11 L4 Supervision Assignment 1 - Thursday 10/11
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